Tory hopes rise in Cheadle
July 12th, 2005
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How punters are viewing the by-election
With just two days to go before the first by-election of this Parliament the money seems to be following the Tories with some punters at least believing that the party might have a chance.
The above chart shows the implied probability of a Tory win in Cheadle on Thursday based on the latest betting odds and is the first time we have used this format to show market moves. Until now whenever we have featured a chart we have done it on the actual odds. As these tighten the graph goes downwards. This new method goes the other way and gives a better feel for what is going on, particularly in a two horse race.
There seem to be very few Lib Dem backers about and the price has moved up from 0.12/1 to its latest level of 0.37/1. So a £100 winning Lib Dem bet today would produce £37 - or nearly three times the profit compared with a bet placed two weeks ago. What is driving the price in a still small market is confidence amongst Tory backers who have seen the price move from 9/2 to its latest level of 1.8/1.
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Now you can get reasonable returns on the Lib Dem victory will we see backers putting money on the party? A lot of this is driven by those working on the ground and although Charles Kennedy’s party looks as though it will win it is not the certainty that the latest heavy odds-on price would suggest.
In 2001 the Lib Dems took the seat with a majority of just 33 votes over the Tories. On May 5th the margin increased to more than 3,000 with what appeared to be a big tactical switch from Labour supporters. A 14% vote share four years ago became an 8.8% one at the General Election. Awareness amongst the electorate of the 2001 result clearly had a big impact encouraging Labour supporters to switch.
If it had not been for the Tory performance in South Staffordshire vote last month I would have been saying that the current price on the Lib Dems was a good value bet. There I was predicting a lower vote share for the party when in fact Patrick Cormack increased his percentage share and his majority. Nationally in 1997 and 2001 Tory poll ratings slipped back sharply after their General Election defeats. This does not seem to have happened this time.
I think the Lib Dems will probably hold Cheadle but I’m not confident enough to bet at the current levels. This view seemes to be shared by other punters and little more than £3,000 has been matched on the Cheadle market on the Betfair betting exchange.
Mike Smithson
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Very striking chart from insomniac Smithson. A much more natural way to show what’s going on. Let’s see the same format for the Tory leadership odds.
As for Cheadle- absolutely fascinating turnabout. Looks like minds are being concentrated.
Fresh from my triumphs of General Election betting, I have wagered on the Tories in Cheadle (and against Lance Armstrong in the Tour de France).
1. They already have. See past bar Chart on how Cameron’s Odds have Tightened?
2. Armstrong is still very much in contention and has the nerve that comes with experience. I still think he might be good value.
Mr Smithson, is there any sign of a book being opened on the LIb Dem Leadership? What is the Processs for toppling a Lib Dem Leader?
2-3- Much will be known tonight in Courchevel about the real potential of Armstrong in 2005. He has always dominated the first big mountain stage during his 7 Tour victories. If he does today, he’s a sure bet. If he doesn’t, don’t rule him out immediately, but wait for the end of the mountain stages (sunday in Saint-Lary).
A bet on Vinokourov could be of good value.
Hooray! A graph I can understand!
This is a very hard fought campaign with mudslinging all around fisrt between the Tories and Lib Dems and now Labour has pitched in against the Lib Dems. But three important factors, firstly the local paper has come out gainst the Tory candidates campaigning material, secondly the Lib Dem candidate is the leader of the Council in which the Lib Dems are very very solid, thirdly crime and asylum are not real issues in this area and hence the Tory campaign is based on living locally and free car parks!!. My money is on the Lib Dems.
The difficulty here is that in a static market small amounts of money can alter odds significantly . My own take on this is that whether in betting or in the stock market the only two judgements to make are :
1. Using your judgement and intel what is your assessment for the result. Not your prefered result .
2. Is there value in the market to justify a return on the balance of probability.
FWIW I think it LIKELY that the Lib Dems will hold Cheadle but that 0.37/1 is poor value for the risk . Accordingly I will continue to avoid the Cheadle market.
8 - A perceptive post Jack with which I agree , I have given my forecast for Cheadle but would not back it up at these odds , my father always told me to avoid long odds on shots .
Back at work today , looked at my own large bar yesterday but sadly empty , can of John Smith’s , bottle of Old Git wine given by son at Xmas which I have not been brave enought to open and bottle of obscure Albanian liqueure , so spent yesterday pm in pub .
The current betting odds for Cheadle are currently about right IMHO, probability split of 33/66 in favour of the Lib Dems seems a sensible analysis to me.
I have had a small just for fun bet (laid £100 at 1.2 on the Lib Dems), on the balance of probabilities I’m not going to collect but I couldn’t resist the value equivalent to 4/1 on a seat that the Tories only just lost in 2001.
I’m still willing to stick my neck out and say that it’ll be a five figure LibDem majority. Sorry Tories.
11.” a five figure LibDem majority”
Isn’t a 5 figure majoirty a bit too much?
I really can’t see a 10,000 majority in Cheadle.
12 - If the turnout is similar to South Staffs its going to be hard to get a 5 figure majority even with a very big swing.
12. I suspect it might partially be tongue in cheek, and having a little fun with the Tories on this board Andreaa.
Five figure majority on a by-election turnout? Assuming roughly a 40% turnout with an electorate of 69,000, that would mean c28,000 voters taking part. To get a five figure majority off that the result would need to look like LD: 18,000 CON: 8,000 OTHERS: 2,000.
I never knew the leader of Stockport Council was so popular.
I think there is a good chance that it will be a THREE figure majority either way - but probably still Lib Dem. A five figure majority is almost impossible in this sort of seat on a by-election turnout. As I said previously I would expect the winner to only get about 12-13,000 votes.
16 - When you think about it, the leader of the local council probably has more influence on things that affect you than a backbench MP does. So if you didn’t think much of the council, it might be better to kick him upstairs to Parliament.
Disclaimer - this is just an psychological experiment and no comment on Stockport Council.
I was the one who was laying the Lib Dems last night as the overound on the book was 90% so it was a chance of picking up a bit of free money. As no one wants to back any other party, this wasn’t picked up. Overall, the average odds I’ve layed the Lib dems at is 1-5 which I think is good value. With turnout likely to be the key, I think there is a better chance than 20% that the tories will win.
Ten i’m confused, can you explain in layman’s terms to me exactly what you have done?
17. Rik there was a discussioon a while back of Postal Vote impact. Have the Parties got their Acts Together on that?
I can see why Cheadle, is so important when you consider the Tories have’t gainmed a SEat in a BY-Election since 1982. For morale it’s huge, but if Charlie digs his heels in do the Libs have the Stomach to turf him out or will theyt just Carp?
Also it would show that as Mr Smithson said that the Tories were going forward for the first time in three General Elections rather than Slipping back again. I still think the Liberals, i just can’t get my head roundthe idea they might actually lose one of their SeAts in a by-election, it just seems impossiblea.
20 - David, Andrew will correct me if I’m wrong but as you know Betfair and similar are betting exchanges so you can act as bookmaker as well as punter.
He is taking the bookmaker role offering odds on the Lib Dems at 1/4 so if he loses he is out of pocket to the tune of £1 for every £4 put on (and he has capped losses at £100). Effectively that is the same as acting as punter backing the Tories at 4/1 because if they win he takes £400 and of course pays out nothing.
22 - I’ve made this point numerous times but we did gain Ayr in a by-election. It was for the Scottish Parliament but was fought on the same (old) Westminster boundaries.
Why are we assuming that turnout should be that low - perhaps the style of campaigning?
Max - wasn’t Ayr an ultra-marginal seat? What would it say about the Tories if they had failed to win it? What swing required 0.1% or something similr?
Yes - I’m just pointing out a fact. Labour had a majority of 25. The swing to the Tories wasn’t very big it was more to do with an increase in the SNP vote. Allthough it was a notional Labour seat in 1992.
But I suppose gain is a gain whatever the cirumstances. Did the Tories hold onto it in 2003? If so was it a big incumbancy swing?
28 - Yes we won it again in 2003 with a similar majority and vote share. The local MSP is quite popular but I think equally people were pissed off that the Labour MP had stood down so soon after being elected when he didn’t have to.
It would be like the MP for Croydon Central or Crawley deciding they didn’t really fancy it after a couple of years. Wouldn’t exactly endear them to their constituents and even less so to their party!
20,
Basically I’ve taken a bet of £100 off someone else and offered them odds of 1.2 (or 1/5 if you work in fractions) on the Lib Dems winning, if the Lib Dems lose I take their £100, if they win I only have to pay them £20!
This is equivalent to me backing the Tories with £20 at odds of 5/1 (not 4/1 as I said earlier), as my profit for both would be £100.
25 - I think low turnout presumption is down mainly to reports from people of both parties on the ground, being so soon after the General Election (voter fatigue) and low media profile (looking at the bigger picture there are much more significant stories around at the moment).
31&25 Yes it’s only a metter of weeks since the last vote, scorching Weather, plus if you’re a Labour Voter why bother they can’t win anyway andf there’s no longer a chance of a Conservative Government. Add all those factors anf if turnout is much much hihgher than Staffs then i will be very surprised.
How many Tory leaqdership candidates have been seen in Cheadle? If more than one, a Tory win - if none, a Lib Dem hold.
33. I believe Rik W was reporting DD may have been around or was planning to be, but Osbourne, Ancran&Howard have all been there.
34. Theresa May was there too.
http://www.cheadleconservatives.com/page/3/178/
If Chealde goes ***s-up then it won’t be the kiss of death for a leadership challenger. What are people going to say: “ooohh, you went to a by-election that the Tories lost?” How many Tory leaders / contenders have done that over the years? Who went to Ipswich?
At the last election the percentages were roughly 49, 40, 9. I’m going to stick my neck out and say that the result this time will be 55, 37, 5. And I think turn out will be 50%+. This is completely unscientific and based on no more than a feeling that the Lib Dems are overwhelming the constituency and a sense of what the constituency is like. It feels “Lib Dem”.I would lay 3 to win 1 if IG were taking bets but they don’t seem to be.
A Tory win in Cheadle is clearly great for them, especially since the Conventional Wisdom still thinks that this is unlikely. However. almost irrespective of the result in Cheadle, I fear that there are going to be ructions amongst the Liberal Democrats. I have almost always disagreed with Donnacadh McCarthy on almost every issue, but I can not say that it is a good thing that he has publically decided to quit the executive and even the Party. There is a growing feeling amongst many more mainstream members that Cowley St. (Lib Dem HQ) is an unprofessional shambles, and Charles and his acolytes also need a serious word with themselves. If Cheadle were to be lost then the conference, which is likely to be pretty boisterous anyway, will become highly rebellious. CK must win this. Meanwhile M’lord Rennard needs a professional managerial executive that can free him up to do what he does best- campaigning. So- over to you M’lord… but even the (expected) victory is unlikely to still the growing annoyance with the centre- and a defeat could have explosive consequences.
I admire your bravery in making predictions Roger!
Given that these were the turnouts in previous isolated polls:
Staffordshire South: 37%
Brent East: 36%
Leicester South: 42%
Hodge Hill: 38%
A 50% turnout would be very unusual.
38. Were different People in Charge of the Lib Dem Campaign in different areas? I’ve heard a Charge that oop north the Lib Dem Campaign was solid and well run scoring successes against both Labour Spectacularly Manchester Withington, the Tories Sole decapitation Success Tim Collins, while down South and Center it was a shambles. If this is the casae it begs the question, WHY?
I’m regretting my prediction already……I didn’t realize that 50% was so high for a meaningless by-election. Particularly as there doesn’t seem to be much interest in the constituency. But having made it I guess I’ll have to stick to it!
39 - The difference is that Cheadle is a Tory/Lib Dem marginal whereas your examples were not. In the large majority of regions at the General Election the highest turnout(s) were in Lib Dem/Tory marginals - Westmoreland in the NW, Haltemprice in Yorks/Humber, Ludlow in the West Mids, West Dorset in the SW, North Norfolk in East Anglia etc. 50% would still be good going though.
38.”but even the (expected) victory is unlikely to still the growing annoyance with the centre”
But will moving towards the centre really help the Libdems to gain voters or could risk to lose them?
The Libdems gained lots of voters from Labour in this GE. Blair and New Labour are always described as moderate and more near the centre rather than the left (sometimes even a bit right winged). So I suppose moderare and centrist voters are happy to stay with Labour (and that’s why the tories didn’t gain voters). It’s the “left vote” that is more unconfortable to vote Labour. If the voters gained by the Libdems from Labour are left-winged voters, with a move to the centre they will be lost (especially with Blair nor more leading labour).
Tory/LibDem marginals always get good turnouts. Roger is therefore looking at a 6-7k majority. Last time 49-40-9, I’d go 57-35-5 this time, with a vote majority edging on for 8,000. I am just sure the LibDems have this one firmly in a very large bag.
I think turnout will be higher than usual for a by-election, for at least four reasons:
1) Turnout is normally higher in middle class seats.
2) It’s a compact, urban seat, so no-one has to go too far out of their way to vote.
3) Everyone knows how close the race is, so more chance of your vote having an effect.
4) Often the reduced turnout in a by-election is due in a large part to a government’s supporters being too disillusioned to turnout. Labour’s support in Cheadle is so minimal that this won’t have too much effect.
Still, I think over 50% would be surprising. I would go for around 45%.
James O - I shouldn’t worry about Donnachadh McCarthy. I have it on good authority that he’s quitting the party because he thinks it will help with his own self-publicity in his new career as a “green guru”.
44. Do you live there?
BNP could make Galloway look classy:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4674675.stm
44. Do you Live there?
38, I read MacCarthy’s article, and to be frank, he sounded like the sort of crank the Lib Dems would be well rid of.
No I don’t live in Cheadle (far, far, away) but I do surprisngly have a family link there that, beyond when he said at the weekend, I didn’t know about.
50 - where is this article, Sean?
Here you go BV:
http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article298483.ece
Thanks Sophia.
I knew the phrase “lurch to the right” would be used - as inevitably as Ann Widdecombe referring to “political correctness gone mad”. It should be a drinking game.
The whole first paragraph is rather vainglorious. You would think he was a second Gladstone.
He struck me as being another Bill Pitt.
McCarthy at least highlights something that has troubled me for some time which is Peers abusing their position by working as lobbyists. Surely this should be stopped right away. This is a cross party problem althought the worst offenders are probably Lib Dem Lord Mcnally and Labour Peer Baroness Thornton. Why should we allow these people to raise isssues in Parliament for money which is what they do however they try to dress it up?
Having lived in next door Stockport up until 2 yrs ago Cheadle is a v Troy feeling area, lost by poor campaigning/organisation/complacancy. The Conservative voters are there in their droves, they just need to be got out to win, in my view it will come down to turnout and who har run the best campaign - who wins it 09/10 is another thing altogether.
55. Bill Pitt? Who?
57 - “Cheadle is a v Troy feeling area”
So all Steve Day needs is to go down to Wickes and get all the necessary to construct a massive, hollow wooden pony by close of play Thursday and he is in for sure.
60. Can we have a Cheadle prediction thread please. winner, % turnout, and majority. I’m sure we could devise some sort of points system to determine the closest prediction.
“Pitt the Twit” won a by-election for the Liberals in 1981. He was a mediocre figure with a vastly inflated idea of his own abilities.
I read McCarthy’s article more with sorrow than anger. He has been a regular contributor to Lib Dem News down the years and, as I recall, supported the Chard Group, which advocated a more “leftish” posture for the Party. I stand to be contradicted but McCarthy was also a supporter of the Ashdown-Blair “project”.
I do agree the Party has underplayed the environmental argument but it simply wasn’t on the political radar during or before the GE campaign and there may be a lesson here in that the Tories successfully tapped into a vein of concern over immigration. I’m convinced people are concerned about climate change but just not to the same degree as the adverse consequences of global warming have yet to impinge on most people’s lives.
I don’t share McCarthy’s criticism of Kennedy’s leadership style. It may not be to everyone’s taste and was in sharp contrast to the Ashdown years but inevitably leadership leads to the formation of small groups or circles. It’s a criticism of Blair - it was of Thatcher and Wilson and will be of the next Tory leader providing he lasts more than a couple of years.
The Iraq situation was difficult for all parties. The LDs are an internationalist party and supporting the UN was the best policy until that organsiation was circumvented by Bush/Blair. I’m sure Kennedy would have supported an invasion backed by a UN resolution like Kuwait in 1991. Without that UN approval, the LDs couldn’t support the war and endured plenty of abuse from the Tories (before THEIR post-war volte face).
No, McCarthy has made his point and I wish him luck promoting the environmental agenda. It won’t be easy given the attitude of the current administration in Washington and the howls of outrage from car users every time anyone even suggests their precious vehicles may be part of the problem, not part of the solution. The REAL villains are the airlines but consumers want to eat strawberries all year round not just when they are “in season” over here. As a result, they are flown in from Israel and elsewhere with consequential damage to the environment just to please the consumer.
60. So start one here? What’s Yours?
The Lib Dem manifesto this year was the most left-wing for a while where it counts, on tax policy. For McCarthy to argue for even more of a lurch to the left, just because there is a gap there, is the real opportunism.
As for Lib Dems shouting louder about European integration and meaningful environmental change, this would harm progress on those issues. Better 62 MPs elected on a pro-Euro, green manifesto than 40 MPs elected who shouted from the rooftops about these policies.
63. Tory win, 46% turnout, 600 majority.
64 To quote Military Parlance an even more Europhile Stance would allow the Tories to strike deep into a safe rear area in Cornwall and the South ans Soutwest where the Common Fishing Policy Already makes the EU Less thsn Popular. Devon West, and Weston are warnings, but if the Tories were ever able to use this as Wedge Issue to Breaak into CornWall……..
Raj @ 56
Do you have specific instances in mind when accusing people of abusing their position or are your comments just general libel?
How would you restrict lobbying in the Lords? Yes, you can ban people who are public affairs professionals but whould that work? What about a charity Chief Executive who was also a Peer, would you ban them from discussing any issue connected with their organisation? What about a Corporate Affairs Director of a major PLC? Or is it just people who are exclusively involved in public affairs who’s integrity you are impugning?
McCarthy already resigned fro the Lib Dems once IIRC, and then changed his mind. I find this undermines his credibility - but I have never been an admirer
LibDem win
49% turnout
59 - 37 - 5
LibDem majority 8,000
Woody 60. I will devise a Cheadle prediction competion tonight and post it later.
69. I really do think you might be teasing the Tories here, if you are suggesting the current Lib Dem Candidate is actually more popular than Carlton was.
70. Will you be the first to stick your neck out MR Smithson? BY the by as said above any signs of a book on your Leadership? Just how do the Libs go about Sacking a Leader?
68.”McCarthy already resigned fro the Lib Dems once IIRC, and then changed his mind. I find this undermines his credibility -”
He could become the Libdems version of Ivan Massow: today in, tomorrow out and so on.
IIRC?
74-
IIRC: If I Recall Correctly
If I Recall Correctly
BTW, what is Ivan Massow up to now?
76 - Apparently (from wikipedia) he founded the Institute of Contemporary Culture after quitting the ICA. I think this is an organisation which might mistake the word “minimal” as a compliment to its impact.
We have got the ICA which is fab (in a trying too hard to be trendy way), I don’t think there is room for a similar insitution.
78 - I’ve been to a few obscure films there and it seemed quite friendly. I was a little disappointed that the staff weren’t unsmiling and Prada-clad.
73 - Indeed the two have a lot in common.
76. After quitting the London mayoral race to rejoin the tories, I’ve never heard of him anymore.
He has probably left the tories a couple of times and re-joined them at least twice in the meantime.
He might be in Veritas by now.
82. Strange that he hasn’t created his own party. He seems the type of man who makes these things.
Didn’t he plan to run for London Mayor as an Independent?
Yes - I think in the end he rejoined the Tories before the election however.
85. yes, he came back to the tories before the election.
And Book Value, he couldn’t join Veritas. 2 divas in the same party aren’t allowed.
Perhaps he would stay there while Kilroy left to found yet another party. Though I think he would probably be the third diva, given the presence of Damian “Plastic Surgery” Hockney.
I actually quite like Ivan Massow, I must admit.
87-”Perhaps he would stay there while Kilroy left to found yet another party”
or maybe while Kilroy is on holiday.
” actually quite like Ivan Massow, I must admit”
to be honest, I even find him quite sexy.
I’ve always thought he would have created a party with his friend Peter Tatchell.
My mum and sister think he is sexy but they didn’t like the fox hunting thing. Still, he is a law-abiding gentleman and he won’t be doing that anymore, I am sure.
Yes he is quite sexy.
Isn’t the ICA vaguely affiliated to the old ‘Living Marxism’ crowd? Maybe Ivan should resurrect the Revolutionary Communist Party?
91 - you’re thinking of the Institute of Ideas I think? A schoolfriend of mine was an RCP member (after standing for the Lib Dems in the school mock election in 1992). They are an interesting bunch and have been through something of an evolution.
91.”Maybe Ivan should resurrect the Revolutionary Communist Party? ”
Or Kilroy could resurrect it if he needs to found a new party.
Speaking of Kilroy-Silk, I would have really liked to be present when in the 80’s he allegedly assaulted Jeremy Corbyn.
92 — I know Institute of Ideas is firmly an RCP organ. But ICA has also had strong links, hosting the LM defence effort during their libel trial. And one James Harkin is currently an ICA official and also a Spiked columnist, writing characteristic pieces about why we have nothing to fear from loss of privacy and the march of progress.
I find the RCP-LM evolution fascinating.
Back now chaps
I thought the IOI had died a death. I knew a chap when I was a child who was one of those trendy communists, he used to listen to radio Moscow and tell us what the BBC wasn’t. Nice chap very eccentric though.
94 - that’s interesting about the ICA. The libel trial thing rings dim bells now, thanks for reminding me.
Just had a drive around the outer edges of the Cheadle constituency into Woodford. Narrow lanes, paddocks in gardens, a cricket pitch overlooking rolling green hills a golf course the odd horse box parked next to piled up fences, a cattery, a kennel…..
….And more signs for Stephen Day than I’ve seen in all the rest of the constituency put together! Not a Lib Dem poster for miles. Bizarrely a Labour one! Only the second I’ve seen in the whole constituency and on a gigantic white house. Probably been blackballed at the local cricket club and decided to get his own back……
The further good news for those Tories still reading was that I counted no fewer than five leafleteers. Probably necessary because of the way the houses were spaced but it must be encouraging to have so many to spare.
I might have got it wrong in my prediction. If I’d visited this part earlier I would have formed a slightly different impression. Woodford is rock solid Tory.
I know, it’s beautiful brings a tear my eye.
Breaking News:
Kilroy Silk’s leadership is challenged by someone called Ken Wharton
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4675795.stm
btw how many party members Veritas has?
98 LOL!
94 So many Acronyms. Can you tell me what you are talking about? Thanks very much.
To many retired colnels, cammanders, farmers and WI members for it (woodford)to vote liberal.
To many retired colonels, cammanders, farmers and WI members for it (woodford)to vote liberal.
Too hot today that should say commanders not cammanders. did’t mean to send that. So embarrasing I was in the navy to! bloody hell.
101 — Not guilty of TLA overuse — they were all mentioned in earlier posts!
RCP: Revolutionary Communist Party
ICA: Institute of Contemporary Arts
LM: Living Marxism
104 Oh well long tradition in the Navy, Kiss me Hardy and all that isn’t it?
Breaking News…… Cheadle Result…. Breaking News ……
I The Honouable Jack W being the Deputy Assistant Returning Officer and Under Sheriff for the Cheadle Division do hereby give notice that the total number of votes given for each candidate is as follows :
Charles Kennedy : Winning Here Litter Lout Liberal Democrat 22,456
Paris Sour Grapes Olympic Toss Pots 22,452 (lost by 4 Again)
Rik W : Free Sutton & Cheam Liberation Front (SDP Wing) 16,922
David Rifkind-Cameron-Lansley : Pick n Mix Tory Party 12,475
Mark Senior : Albanian Old Git (Restore King Zog) Party 7,895
Nicholas Soames : Anti Slimming World and Liposuction Party 2,346
Tabman : Lentil Quiche and Todger Reconstruction Party 1,802
President Jacque Chirac : Couldn’t win a pi*s up in a brewery Party 871 .
Turnout 139%
Spoilt Papers from Birmingham 103,672.
Voters with decapitated fingers in letterboxes 45,901.
Acreage of trees used on Lib Dem bar charts leaflets - 6 Amazon forests.
Candidates who claimed victory : All of them naturally.
Constituency mileage of PB.com posters : 3 circumnavigations of the globe.
Alchohol consumed by Roger and S. Penkith : Indeterminate.
106 - Surely, rum, sodomy and the lash. I’ll go for rum and er…..
63- From talking to people working in Cheadle I would guess a Tory majority of 150 with a turnout of 43%. Could easily be 500 votes either way in all honesty.
Delighted McCarthy is out again. Hopefully this time he stays that way or joins the Greens where he belongs. As John Major might say this is one b!*!*!* I’d rather have on the outside pissing in a random direction.
107.”Voters with decapitated fingers in letterboxes 45,901.”
They all were French aristocrats. Their voters should add up to “Paris Sour Grapes Olympic Toss Pots” and “President Jacque Chirac : Couldn’t win a pi*s up in a brewery” (btw I think that between mayoral races and presidential elections Chirac won more elections than Blair).
I’ve already filled a petition. Galloway’s lawyers will follow everything.
Now now, it is a modern navy now. We are all coming to terms with it. Theres nothing wrong with Sodomy followed by a lick of the cats tail.
110 - Having just read his article I would have to agree. What does he actually think he’ll achieve. He doesn’t even offer any kind of solution or alternative leader. CK has increased vote share and seats in the last two elections. I don’t really see what more people could have excpected him to achieve. Who is this guy anyway?
112.”Now now, it is a modern navy now.”
Now the navy supports this (it even ask for more with ads in the “Pink Paper”).
110 - But wasn’t Chirac Giscard’s first PM way back in 1974 (what is the collective for crazy frogs?
) when our own dear leader had just concluded three undistinguished but cacophonous years crooning with The Ugly Rumours in the City of the Dreaming Spires (fees paid by the taxpayer naturally)? So, hardly a contest really….
111 , Andrea . I’m afraid Chirac did a UKIP and wouldn’t stand down for the “Paris tossers” as they are known in that part of Cheshire . Apparently they all came over after the Revolution much as the Huguenotes did in the 17th Century to London
112 - As long as the cat consents…
115. If you really want, Blair could go on until he’ll 70 years old …..
As far as the Lib Dems troubles go recent events such as the Orange Book difficulties , the mixed performance at the GE , Matthew Taylor ousting and the student and MacCarthy diatribe you’d have to say that the vultures aren’t exactly circling over CK but the vultures are at least preening their wings and if the Lib Dems lose Cheadle then they’ll be on the nest with their wings flapping ….. Squark squark …..
Whilst I have my own views as to the likely Cheadle result (see competition) - please keep promoting the Tories chances to improve the odds - Noone is taking my money on Betfair.
120- The last question of the competition could be misleading. Someone could argue that if on Friday Charlie will announce that he’ll join the navy (or that he’ll have a new baby), he’s making a statement about his future plans.
Andrea 120. Fair point and it is for this reason that we have the rule that I am the final arbiter on everything.
121. Yes, the last question is open to interpretation. I think Mike means a formal statement from Cowley Street.
CK getting some flak from Labour and Tories for stating the bleedin’ obvious: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4675613.stm
Liberal Strategy,
Forward thinkers this lot. The Good Folk of Penarth(I have friends living there) a Town in South Wales were a bit bewildered this week to be bombarded with Lib Dem Leaflets, emblazoned with THANK YOU. For what in most Cases regarding the recent Election (Penarth being an overwhelmingly Tory Town). Full of Bar Charts showing the Percentage rises in Votes, flattering them but only just showing they were third albeit only just to the Tories which it barely acknowledged. Eleswhere it boasted of doubling their Westminster Represntation, not hard you might think as they only had two to start with, after all the Tories tripled theirs!.
But am i right that even this early after the Last Election they have learnt a lesson from Cardiff Central and are targeting Seats where they are now within Striking distance but which have sizeable pockets of Tory Support like Penarth. If so they are to be congratuklated on their cunning. Labour MP’s with Majorities of 9k or less with large Tory Votes to squeeze be afraid, be very afraid.
123. If Downing Street really thought that no one would have linked the London bombings to Iraq, they’re the ones who are “naive”, not Kennedy.
The fact that the government replied back to Kennedy means that now they take the Libdems seriously.
Galloway, BNP and the SNP made the same comments (and some of them made even worse comments) and no one paid attention to them.
122 , Mike Smithson . Absolutely lets have a bit of authoritarianism on the site , so we can get used to it in the coming weeks and months . Hail Duce Smithson ! can we now invade Abyssinia ?
Couldn’t help but notice that the CK story on the BBC mentioned the fact that it was given at the ICA. More sinister proof of the LibDems leftward lurch if ever it were needed…
124.”they have learnt a lesson from Cardiff Central and are targeting Seats where they are now within Striking distance but which have sizeable pockets of Tory Support like Penarth. If so they are to be congratuklated on their cunning. Labour MP’s with Majorities of 9k or less with large Tory Votes to squeeze be afraid, be very afraid. ”
It doesn’t always happen. Look at the result of Oldham East & Saddleworth. A 2.726 majority with the tories at 16% in 2001. Labour increased his majoirty this year.
123/125 Lorcan & Andrea . CK speech a statement of the “bleeding obvious” and a sign of Labour and Tory nervousness on the Iraq / London bombing linkage especially as the bombers are British and no Al-Q link is so clear now.
BTW explosives found in car at Luton Station car park .
Hey ! What’s all these copy cat predictions of a Tory win in Cheadle ! I bagged that one . I was looking forward to the prize !! Almost as generous as the BBC !!
130, I’ve been suggesting that the Tories have got more of a chance than people have been suggesting for weeks. I think I estimated 3 weeks ago that they have about a 30/40% chance of a gain which the markets now seem to be validating.
Not to blow my own trumpet of course, the Lib Dems could well end up with a substantial majority!
128 - Oldham East is a bit of a strange seat , Andrea . IIRC it was a Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives in a by election in 1995 then won by Labour in the GE 1997 ( there were some boundary changes just to complicate matters ) The Labour MP seems well liked locally .
131 , Jon W . Yes we could all end up with egg manifique on our chops if Cheadle becomes Winchester !!
128. Probably due to LOcal Incompetence of not making aware Local Populace as in Cheadle. Those Same Lib Dem things in Penarth were emblazoned everyone knows “Cardiff South and Penarth is a two horse race between Welsh Liberal Democrats and Labour”! a Slight Liberty Considering they were Third Still Just in Vote Share this Time. Still they Clearly do not intend to make the “Oldham East and Saddleworth” mistake and are getting intent on getting the Message out even with four or five years to go. Michaels’ Majority 8k, Conservative Vote about 7.5k. Getting even half of those Votes would go a long way to helping them get the Seat.
Mark , 13 Next Thread . A tad brave Mark. Have been drinking a mixture of Tirana’s finest mixed with Old Git and meths !!
To be honest, it’s an ideal situation for the Tories:
They’re not really expected to win. People who have now voted twice in General Elections were not born the last time the Tories took a seat in a by-election.
If the Lib Dems win and the Tories lose - it’s not a story, is it?
If the Tories sneak it - it is a big story.
Only if the Tories are crushed out of sight (to the point of being pushed into third place) is there a possible bad side for them.
135 - Teresa back with duty free Baccardi so Old Git still unopened until hard times .
136 - Don’t agree here , Andy , if the Conservatives make no advance at all or even fall back a little after all the effort and outdoing of Lib Dem type campaigning , they will be more than a little miffed .
Oldham East was a terrible campaign for the Lib Dems. Just like in Bolton the party became over confident and started to appear smug. Also the |Labour M.P has a reputation of being a slimy git many friends were shocked his vote went up. Very good campaigner though. Tory campaign went exceptionally well. he was the one who brought those, lovely terraced, houses being destroyed up in the national press. It made many old tories dump the liberals. Considering Bolton West, Bolton North East and Oldham East had activists from neighbouring seats helping it was a poor show indeed for North Manchester Lib Dems.
134. The local Labour MP needs to be very disliked to have all the tories voting tactically for the Libdems to oust him. Judging from posts here it seems that the tories dislikes the Libdems more than Labour.
In many seats gained by the Libdems over Labour the fall of tories vote wasn’t so big like in Cardiff Central.
132. There’re some seats with strange results over the years.
Look at Halifax. Labour did better in 1987 than in 1992.
Now that Alice Mahon retired, it seems that at least half of the voters lost by Labour went to the BNP (it’s hard to think that Mahon had a personal vote between fascists).
In Bethnal Green & Bow, Oona King managed to lose votes in 1997!
Does anyone have any more info on the seminar given to the Tory bigwigs about FPTP, and how it works against them- see posting on today’s ‘Makemyvotecount.org’. Has the penny dropped (ie if Labour stays ahead in the Polls, we stick with FPTP; if they slip behind we’ll get a quick Bill on AV before the end of the Parliament)?
137 , Mark . Glad Teresa’s back and Old Git has returned to its rightful place ! BTW I encountered a relation of Old Git at the weekend - a £45 bottle of claret that had that subtle pervasive aroma of a Turkish wrestlers jock-strap and Steptoe’s Y fronts. The restaurant were not happy , but then neither was I !! No prizes (much like the competition) for guessing who won that one especially with the Dowager Lady Jack W in tow !!!
Cretins : Ten points away for each line posted on the wrong thread !!
20 points away for abuse …… Oh dear ….. what’s the prize for last prize !! - Watching Nicholas Soames eat a five course meal ….. naked …… YUK ….
142 , Moi . “….prize for last prize ….” ?!?!?!
Must be drinking the claret at 141 !!
Should be prize for last place .
140. Problem with that is they’re already committed to a referndum before any change, and if they only do it when they’re unpopular Voters might reject just to Punish them, that’s befoe Labour Rebels have a Say. Party Leadership likes Devolution, but an absolute revolyt by Welsh Labour MP’sa torpedoed giving any new powers to the assembly. I could see something Similar brewing with the Prescotte tendency over Voting reorm. They Prefer a Straight Fight with the Tories to sharing Power With The Liberals.
139. From what i understand Alun Michael, though liked as a Person is seen as so much of a Lapdog vis 1999, that he might well fall Victim to Such Feelings.
36 , Following Thread , S Penketh. You’re apologizing on the wrong thread !!!
145. Jack W, you’re a bit pedant tonight. What type of wine did you drink?
Mark Senior Correctionon Cheadle Thread. Winchester BY-Election in 1995??? oATEN WON IN 1997 FAMOUSLY BY TWO vOTES DIDN’T HE? bIT Pedantic but hope it helpsa Cheers.
Andrea. As an elector in Bethnal Green & Bow in 1997, I’d like to point out that Oona King was not the MP prior to the election. The resaon for the swing away from Labour was because the local Labour Party’s Bangladeshi candidate was rejected in favour of Ms King.
This resulted in the same people campaigning for the Conservative candidate (Mr Chouhdry) as he came from their own community.
There were three seats in the country that had swings to the Conservatives in 1997. BG&B was one, my now seat of Greenwich & Woolwich was another (the reason being that many Conservative voters had been tactically voting for the SDP during the late 80s/early 90s) and the third IIRC was Bradford South, where race was the issue once again.
146 , Andrea . Yes , I’m one of Mike Smithson’s unpaid , unloved Black Shirts tonight.
Not touched a drop until five minutes from now !! Too busy raking in the dosh - excellent day on the markets !! Bad day at the cricket !!
148. I meant losing voters for Labour. Not very common in 1997 (even with new candidates).
I suspected that a race issue was the reason of the result.
Btw Mrs King was another one described by some newspapers being super popular in her constituency and then she ended up losing.
Phil - I claim my winnings for the sweepstake on post 107. To be collected at a time and place TBA.
149.” Andrea . Yes , I’m one of Mike Smithson’s unpaid , unloved Black Shirts tonight. ”
I hope I didn’t offend you saying you were pedant (I was joking)
Now you will be accused to have another alter ago.
I had to look who “Blackshirts” were….. I didn’t immediatly make the connection.
I read that there was a security alert in the Commons tonight….. it seems that all Peers were running away from Jenny Tonge.
148 - I think it was Bradford West. The Tory candidate was a Muslim whereas his opponent was a Hindu.
Tabman. I have not seen you for a while - I have malingered around in various haunts that I know you frequent and your absense has been noticeable? Perhaps we could meet up for a beer in the old LDF at some point?
Been hanging head in shame and having had back whiplashed bit like being given the lash on every sheep in the fleet but fortunately our Royal Navy is only a small part of the size it used to be .
147 - Sorry David , have you been drinking as well - ? LOL
Stuart and I were talking about Oldham East and Saddleworth .
I’ve noticed in the Cheadle competitionthat some are optimistic about the results of Veritas and the other candidate.
151 , Tabman . Qui ?!?!?
152 , Andrea . I rarely take offence . Indeed for an Aristo I’m so laid back as to be horizontal most of the time !!
156 - Possibly Andrea but more likely the alcohol is stopping us counting to 100 correctly .
153. It was Bradford West.
Marsha Singh, the MP, was accused this year to have made “indecent proposals” to Jane Griffith.
Helen Clark was naturally present.
155 , Mark . Mmmm . A bit of S&M down Brighton way ! Has Teresa returned from France with pink fluffy handcuffs and leather straps ?
159 , Andrea . A revolting image to go to bed with ! I’ll have to stay up and get the thought out of my mind.
160 - A couple of years ago in an auction in Norfolk , we bought some antique handcuffs and manacles but sold them unused to a gay couple in Brighton .
154 - Paul, indeed. Mrs Tabman is away hectoring the Mormons at present and I have been busy as you might appreciate. I shall look in for a snifter at some juncture in the next few days.
162 , Mark . I believe you . No one else will !! You’ll end up on Trisha with a lie detector !!
Going to Cheadle on Thurs to do some canvassing. Tories feel it could go there, lots of Lib Dem negative campaigning could backfire.
165 Where you travelling from Chris?
134 - Don´t have the figures to hand but IIRC the Lib Dem advance in Cardiff South and Penarth has been pretty significant. From memory up from 9.8% to 23% in a a few elections. PC are also climbing in fourth place. Labour vote sinking. Tories abosolutley becalmed, but just hanging on to second place in 2005. I think that the momentum is with the Lib Dems - but four years is a longtime in politics…
I always have a chortle at the expectations and self-deusion of party workers at by-elections . The best one was in the Torygraph a few days out from the Winchester by-election in 97 when confident predictions of a Tory win rang out . Ho Ho - Result 20,000 plus Lib Dem win .
165 - Best of luck, Chris.
I wouldn’t mind going up myself to help Stephen Day, but at my age I’m not up to trotting all over the countryside for the cause anymore, unfortunately.
160 - No, no, no Jack W. Handcuffs are useless. What you really need are over-sized wellies and velcro gloves. For an aristocrat your knowledge of rural ‘affairs’ is less than impressive! Having said that even I was not aware of this ‘lash on every sheep’ phenomenen.
169 - oh, go on AH - you’ve got to be worth a few votes (to us).
170 , It was meant to be ship in a Scottish Lairds accent LOL or could be just typo caused by alcohol fumes from Tersa’s drink .
170 - there’s a place on Arran called Lamlash IIRC.
171 - That was a tad snide, eh?
Despite it being a by-election I wonder how many of the electors still think Stephen Day is their MP? In Bexleyheath & Crayford it was a very common occurance (strange to hacks like us) to find voters who had no idea that David Evenett had not won in either 1997 or 2001.
169 - Still as charming as ever I see, Tabman. I’ll go if you go - then it’ll be a wash. How about it?