Has David Davis got the Politicalbetting bug?
July 13th, 2005
Tory leadership. BLACK=David Davis: RED=David Cameron: BLUE=Ken Clarke
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It’s now down to 2/5 on the Shadow Home Secretary
Our new way of presenting betting odds charts in terms of implied probability has been warmly welcomed by site users including one Wat Tyler, the first person to comment on our Cheadle chart yesterday, who asked if we could do the same on the Tory leadership race.
The best betting prices have seen a steady build-up of the David Davis position since Michael Howard opened the contest on the day after the General election by stating that he intended to step down.
We hope that Wat Tyler is pleased because judging from his one other post on the site he is clearly very close to the front-runner himself - so close, in fact, that you could almost be excused for thinking that it was DD himself. Surely not?
This is what Wat posted here at comment 38 last week on an article about David Davis’s use of the word “privilege” in this campaign. …I scan through the comments here quite often, and generally find something to make me think. But this story? The Davis CPS speech was given on Monday, yet the Independent report on it only appears today. That seems an awfully long time for someone to decide that remark on ‘privilege’ was an attack on Cameron. I reckon Grice just forgot to file the report on Monday and had to warm it up a bit. Having said that, in terms of background and life experience, Davis clearly offers our party something very different to David Cameron. There’s nothing wrong with Old Etonians from North Notting Hill, but right now we have a desperate need to connect across a much broader social and geographical spectrum. Cameron might be able to do it, but DD’s own life story is the very embodiment of the kind of opportunity Britain we want to see….
Clicking on Wat Tyler’s name and you get to the site of “David Davis for Leader”, which is described as “Bloggers for Davis as Next Conservative Leader” which, helpfully has a link to Politicalbetting’s latest Tory leadership prices.
David Davis, himself, might not have got the bug but somebody very close clearly has. Welcome to the site.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
It does sound suspiciously like the David Davies line doesn’t it? I think the blog site is very persuasive evidence that Wat is actually on the DD team. If it weren’t for that I’d say there are those that just believe whatever their preferred party / candidate says, so it sounds like they’re just touting party line.
1. I’m surprised you think the MP for Monmouth is a Suspect?
Re Wat Tyler, So Cameron has the ability to reconnect with the only social and geographical Spectrum that Matters. THe BIt tht decides who wins Elections.
1. I’m surprised you think the MP for Monmouth is a Suspect?
Re Wat Tyler, So Cameron has the ability to reconnect with the only social and geographical Spectrum that Matters. The Bit that decides who wins Elections.
Well, if there were one Tory leadership contender you might expect to write a supposedly third-party blog boosting his own chances…
Would Iain Dale (blogger, former contributor to this site and DD Chief of Staff) like to rule himself out as a suspect?
Will PB.Com have anyone Present at the Cheadle Count? I understand you can blog via Blackberries these days.
Ps What iS Cameron’s Current Price? Still 4-1?
Before anyone asks it’s not me !! …. I think ???
Wat Tyler is doing a sterling job of promoting the best man for the Tory leadership and having sent the odd interesting story to him, you’re current guesses as to who he us are wide of the mark.
Sorry that should be your. Not awake properly yet.
Then we should look to unexpected quarters. I have seen through the ingenious double bluffs, and suddenly it becomes clear that Davis’s cheerleader Wat Tyler is another poster here. Step forward, Sophia.
I have been rumbled… BTW, it seems that it was David Davis who instigated the recommendations of an inquiry into last Thursday’s bombings.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/terrorism/story/0,15935,1526603,00.html?gusrc=rss
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/353ebcee-f272-11d9-8e69-00000e2511c8.html
I’ve just had a little nibble with Lee Westwood ……. No you’re just making it up now ……Widely available E/W at 40/1 for the Open . Paddy Power offering 1/4 a place 1-6 .
I was hoping to go up to St. Andrews for a couple of days , but I’m not able to return to Scotland until next week . Damn and blast !!
Re: 11 - and presumably it was Michael Howard who overruled him and backtracked on a demand for an enquiry on Monday!!
14. Can anyone suggest how ID cards or the anti trror laws would have stopped this attack seeing as the bombers it would seem were british and unknown to the security services.
13 - Lesson to Michael Howard: don’t go along with everything the “saviour of the Tory party” David Davis advises.
13 , Stodge . Yes we had a discussion on here on Sunday on the merits or otherwise of the Tories position. The back tracking was severe . I think over the weekend the Tory leadership realized that this was an issue that didn’t resonate and they were right .
You can imagine TB’s implied response - “Well… we were about to arrest some suspects before the officers were redeployed on a paper trail !” ….. Gulp from the Opposition Front Bench !
Sophia at 11. Very interesting. It was such an obviously foolish thing to do (Max take note) that it’s encouraging that wiser heads prevailed. One of the main criticisms of Howards leadership was his lack of strategic judgement (my criticisms go much further!)so it’s worth knowing that Davis was behind this. In my opinion it was SUCH a stupid thing to do that in itself it should raise question marks over Davis’s leadership aspirations. I would be very interested to hear who it was in the shadow cabinet who dissuaded them from going ahead.
17. Do we know this to be gospel fact or is it being spun by one of the other leadership contenders
18 , Woody . I don’t know about whose spinning this within Tory ranks , but the about turn would have given the Italian Army a run for its’ money . (Sorry Andrea)
An inquiry is not a foolish thing to do at all. It is eminently sensible and DD / MH were quite right to call for one. It is standard for the military to convene an inquiry immediately after any incident and lessons are therefore available swiftly.
I think Sofia’s and Rogers prejudices against DD are clouding their judgement!
I find that the call for an inquiry the natural thing to ask (oh God, I agree with Rik W. I’ve to change my postition soon!
)
19. Don’t worry Jack W. Our army is not known as being very successfull. Greece was too much for us during WW2
I’m puzzled. Surely an inquiry into how the bombings took place is obviously sensible and is obviously going to happen.
20 , Rik . Yes it was such a good idea , the Tories abandoned it quicker than you could say Lord Franks !!
Rik W
As someone fairly favourable to DD I think that calls for an inquiry this soon were suspect if not stupid. The police have better things to do.
I think that this should go down as a good idea, just poor timing. But hey we should recognise that no-one is perfect. I think that one of the big problems with situations like this is that there is such a rush to consensus that good scrutiny of govt. decisions even more essential now goes out the window as there are very few politicians capable of being gently critical at a time when everyone expects politics as normal to get suspended.
General consensus:
Inquiry = good and useful; will happen
This week calling for an immediate inquiry = stupid; poor judgement
24 - nonsense. Do you really believe that the Police involved in the hunt would be pulled off for the inquiry? Of course not, it would be completely different people involved and that is how it should be. Besides the Police now apparently have so many officers that they can stand around at inner London railway stations in groups of 3+ chatting, whilst the outer London boroughs are denuded of officers!
22 , Sean . Presently the investigation is the inquiry . More medium term a detailed analysis will be carried out by all the releveant agencies . MH’s call for an immediate inquiry had the whiff of political opportunism and implied critisism at a time of national grief - not a clever move - hence the back tracking .
21 , Andrea . I’m afraid victories of the Italian Army is one of those stereotypes beloved by idiots like me . So here’s some other short books :
Looking Down on Life by Alan Duncan
Great Speeches of John Prescott
The Life and Loves of a She Devil by Anne Widdecombe
By Election Victories of Ian Duncan Smith .
My years as a Super Model by Margaret Becket
On the Wagon by Charles Kennedy.
My Dreams of a Federal Europe by Roger Knappman
I’m a Blood Donor by Micheal Howard.
My life as Pope by Ian Paisley
I was Saddam’s Love Child by George W Bush
Nicholas Soames Little Book of Diets .
Sartorial Elegance by Dennis Skinner.
27. Well, ok. But it would involve Sir Ian Blair and senior figures. There is no suggestion at the moment the police or security services did anything wrong (ignored warnings etc.). And from a purely political perspective it looks like trying to score political points and is insensitive.
I have been concerned whether DD is clever enough to be leader. If he, or his alter ego post/read on this site, then he probably is. If you want to go anywhere in national politics, and you don’t know what’s happening on here, you are either very arrogant, or just dim.
BTW, did anyone test the hypothesis that PPC’s who were on this site at the last GE did better than those who came nowhere near it?
Rik has just alerted me to the fact that there is speculation that I am posting on this site in the name of Wat Tyler. For the record I have only ever posted on this site in my own name. Also for the record, I have no idea who Wat Tyler is. I can assure you it is not David Davis!
30 - Wat has nothing to do with David Davis, although he may read this site, inbetween saving the Tory party.
24 - nonsense. Do you really believe that the Police involved in the hunt would be pulled off for the inquiry? Of course not, it would be completely different people involved and that is how it should be. Besides the Police now apparently have so many officers that they can stand around at inner London railway stations in groups of 3+ chatting, whilst the outer London boroughs are denuded of officers!
28&21 Sorry Andrea couldn’t resist. Reminded me oif the Joke about the Italian Tank in World War TWo. It was found to have four gears, three revrse and one forwards in case the Enemy Attacked from Behind. Sorry!
Still Italian Midget Submariners, were both Brave and Lethal.
31.”I have no idea who Wat Tyler is. I can assure you it is not David Davis”
If you don’t know who he’s, how could you know that he’s not David Davis.
35. Do you really think David Davis has the time to run his own leadership blog?
36. No, I was joking (I thought it was clear).
Re: 33 - not so, my friend. Police officers at Surbiton this morning but haven’t seen any on trains or tubes though of course plenty may be travelling incognito. The Police are there to reassure more than anything else.
As for your robust defence of the initial Tory call for an inquiry - no more than I expected. The problem I have is: if the initial call for an inquiry was right, why did Howard backtrack so rapidly on Monday? If the initial call was, in your eyes, correct surely the backtrack says more about what’s going on in the Shadow Cabinet.
Crises like this are easy for incumbent Governments. I don’t think the Tories or LDs can do anything other than sound supportive - there’ll be plenty of time for blame and inquiries once the dead are buried.
31 , Iain . If DD isn’t posting on this site , I want to know why not ?!?! Isn’t this just another example of the Tories being completely out of touch with …… normal …… people ….. like … me , Rik , Tabman , Andrea , Mark , ?!?!? …. OK well doesn’t this just show how the Tories are completely out of touch with obsessed one eyed political wonks like us - Disgracefull !!
Re 33. What could the opposition have done-while the police were still counting bodies-?
Sounded statesmanlike.
Infact exactly what he did after his Shadow Cabinet had prevailed on him….
It is remarkable that David Davis’s odds are so slim.Two weekends ago the press reported him as having “north of 50″ supporters. On past precedents this probably means he only has around 40-45 or so. This is hardly the stuff of an overwhelming favourite. It seems to me that Clarke and Rifkind will decide the winner. If they do put their hat in the ring they will make a Davis win more likely, but I suspect in the end they will back Cameron. Then he will be in a strong position to win. For the record I am not David Cameron, do not blog for him and have never met him. However, I must own up to having a small bet on him.
40. Some people though are Claiming it was MH who prevailed on David Davis.
38 - it is exactly so. There were police exactly as I described at Victoria and Westminster tube station this morning. Meanwhile outer London has been denuded of Police cover.
BTW can we get away from this rubbish about Howard backtracking. He chose to make a statesmanlike statement in the House in response to Blairs. That is not a change of policy. As far as I am aware MH has not directly rebutted or backtracked on DD’s call for an inquiry.
43 , Rik . You said it Rik . The phrase deafening by its’ silence comes to mind . All weekend - inquiry , inquiry , inquiry . Monday inquiry … what inquiry ? The Tories need to invest in an Italian tank !
28. Jack W, you forgot some very important books that every pundits need to have (sadly I’m not good as you):
“I love Tony Blair” by Bob Marhsall Andrews
“Politics in Y Fronts” by Chris Bryant
“How to become a serious politician” by Boris Johnson (introduction by Petronella Wyatt)
“A Westminster sex guide” by The Spectator
“My humble life” by Peter Mandelson
“How to seduce a British MP” by Mandelson’s boyfriend (available only in Brazilian)
“A successful leadership” by Ian Duncan Smith
“A trip to Palestine” by Jenny Tonge
“Fag Hag” by Edwina Currie
“I’m still waiting” by Gordon Brown
and last, but not least:
“Nonsense: the troubles of a campaign against the Libdems” by Richard Willis
I’m wondering whether posters (esp. Tories) feel it’s already down to a two-horse race?
Having concluded it would be London or Paris, I managed to ensure a small win (£25ish) either way (with limited risk on Madrid & New York). Could be similar opportunity here.
Btw: Having initially backed Paris over several weeks but then concluded it was close (hence a change of tactics) I was surprised that after London appeared to have won the presentations and had made the last two, Paris stayed at about 1.33(?) on Betfair. Any thoughts on why the odds didn’t close more?
45 , Andrea . Excellent !! However I’m a bit concerned about “How to seduce a British MP ” by Mandelsons boyfriend (Only available in Brazilian)
I think you mean Portugese , as over here appearing at WH Smith’s and ordering the book and showing them ones’ Brazilian is liable to cause consternation amongst the paperbacks !!
No-one thinks I’m an MP, anyway.
47. yes, I meant Portugese (I didn’t think about the fact that Brazilian doesn’t actually exist as a language :/) ).
49 , Andrea . Brazilian , yes , but not just the language , you’ll have to Google that one !! This is a family show and before the watershed !
Off for a long lunch now !! Be good .
44 Jack W
Michael Howard still said an enquiry should be held in his speech in the Commons on Monday. An Inquiry is necessary, as it was in Spain after the Madrid bombing, to give a report to the people. I certainly want to know if everything worked well and what, consequently, we might do to protect ourselves from further attack, don’t you? And in a democracy this must be a public event, again as it was in Spain.
Secondly, it is rather odd for Stodge at 38 to complain that Michael Howard modified his position. Is that not what we want politicians to do, to respond to us and our feelings? If Blair does it you will praise him for it, as do I. Why not extend the same courtesy to Michael Howard?
In the face of last week’s atrocity everyone is supporting everyone else, but that should not let us forget the unfortunate record of the Met (and other forces) in clearing up criminal cases and their preoccupation with quasi-social service rather than catching, let alone deterring, criminals.
The the PM, Charles Clarke and the Commissioner and his predecessor said that the recent anti-terrorist legislation that took away habeas corpus was necessary because there were hundreds of potential bombers in the country. Yet those powers have not, as far as I can ascertain, been used in the defence of the people of the UK. They have been used only to solve a legal difficulty in regard to illegal immigrants. So were they necessary and useful?
I suspect not. More useful would be the use of wire tapping evidence in court cases, a legally longer detention period for suspects (but still subject to the principle of habeas corpus) and a careful revision of the flawed Human Rights Act to ensure that is does not protect the guilty and unwelcome from being kept out of the country and deported from it when found in it.
Being ever-so-slightly picky, it’s not too far fetched to talk of Brazilian as a language; saying ‘Brazilian’ is just like saying ‘American’ and there’s more difference between Portuguese Portuguese and Brazilian Portuguese than there is between proper English and American English.
Now, back to the politics wit ye, Jack, ya dirty boy
As for Davis, it’s hardly surprising, given the popularity of this site and the propensity for people in around parliament to read it, that someone very close to him is popping along for a chat.
Personally, I think his price is a little tight for the leadership, given some of the more random routes this contest has taken in the past. Would’ve thought a fair price was closer to, say, 8/13 or 8/11
46 - no, this is not a two horce race. Unlike with the Olympic race, we don’t actually know who the runners are yet. It would be like trying to know whteher the Olympics were going to Paris or London without knowing if Cape Town, Buenos Aires, Vancouver or Berlin were going to throw their hats into the ring with a bid of their own.
Re: 43: I think as far as policing is concerned, it depends on what you mean by Outer London. I regard Surbiton as Outer London but I live in East Ham (probably more Inner London). I can’t comment on your observations in Sutton or elsewhere but if you’re going to make a blanket comment like “outer London has been denuded of Police cover.” I think I’m entitled to question it and counter with my own observations. Do you have any substantive evidence for what you’re saying or are hoping we’ll all accept it if you say it often enough ?
Re: 51 - Once again, I’m faced with righteous indignation from the Tories because I dare to criticise their lame-duck leader and his lame successor. Howard used a BBC News 24 interview on Sunday to argue for an inquiry. On Monday (and it was statesman-like) Howard backed off from this.
This would be fine if some non-entity called Lewis, I believe, hadn’t had the audacity to lay into Charles Kennedy and accuse him of appeasing terrorists. First of all, Kennedy’s actual commwents, as reported on BBC Online, don’t seem terribly controversial. To me, they sound blindingly obvious. The irony is that it was the Conservative Party that was the Party of appeasement in the 1930s and almost threw out Churchill in April 1939 for his persistent opposition to Neville Chamberlain.
53 - If it does get down to a two horse race, it wouldn’t be a surprise if David Davis doesn’t become leader. Who the other person would be is still an unknown quantity.
“BTW, did anyone test the hypothesis that PPC’s who were on this site at the last GE did better than those who came nowhere near it? ”
Not scientific, but looks to me at first sight like the reverse is true:
Rik W, Marcus Wood & Iain Dale - all confident of winning their seats but lost (in ID’s case, spectacularly so)
Bullseye - didn’t win (perhaps not expecting to)? Neil lost his council seat.
Nick Palmer - reduced majority
On the other hand, that doesn’t account for all the “lurkers”. Perhaps the smartest candidates are those who read but didn’t comment (or didn’t let on who they are)??
46. In fact Madrid was very unlucky and came within one or two votes of possibly winning.
Round 2 of voting was:
Madrid 32, London 27, Paris 25, New York 16
Round 3 of voting was:
London 39, Paris 33, Madrid 31
Thus Madrid somehow lost one vote in Round 3. If they had kept this vote and gained just one more then the final would have been London vs Madrid and Madrid may well have won that.
56 - I know of one newly elected Lib Dem MP (who picked up the seat from Labour) who read the site during the months before the election without posting.
53 - some of the Lib Dems on here could help your chosen horse out with some bar charts, I’m sure.
Martha Kearney on Newsnight during the election mentioned that Tory MPs had recommended PB to her.
Re-56.
The issue is did they do better than average or not…..I increased my share by 0.1% (8 votes!) when on average we (plaid) were going down 2% ……….
Rik W, Marcus Wood, and Nick Palmer all turned in performances which were similar to the average for their party in the type of seat they were contesting.
62. I think that the 4.9% swing from Libdems to tories in Torbay was better than average.
Yes, you’re right, come to think of it. Although Marcus Wood only saw the Conservative vote rise by 0.1%, this was a good achievement given that UKIP increased their vote by 2000.
To Sophia and Book Value who asked about Adrian Rogers in the other thread:
Maybe he could join his homonymous:
http://www.lwf.org/
I am not sure I want to click on that link while I am at work. What is that organisation?
66. A Bible preacher.
What type of organisation did you think it was?
Something like Christian Voice.
66 - It is a US conservative religious group run by a different man of the same name with possibly similar views.
The real Rogers’ “Conservative Family Institute” turned into “Family Focus” but I think it has fizzled out and there appears to be no website. He was a rent-a-quote after 1997 for a while but people forgot about him. Professionally he was a GP and may have gone back to that. I would advise all PBers against going to him for a confidential chat about contraception or STDs.
68. You weren’t very far.
69. Yes, I know it’s not the same Adrian Rogers. But I find funny that those 2 men have the same name and the same views. UK Adrian Rogers could very well join the US Adrian Rogers in this organisation.
71 - hence your erudite use of the word “hononym”. It is an odd coincidence - two Adrian Rogers, parallel lives. Are there any other ex-MPs or candidates whose fate we can wallow in?
Also mildly interesting tomorrow: two by-elections in Lab/Lib wards in Derby. If Labour wins both (dream case) they take control. Currently one each, neither of them absolutely secure. We also have an interesting Lib/Lab by-election (the sitting LibDem councillor has had to resign due to insolvency - he’s a nice chap and most people are sorry for him) coming up on August 11 in Broxtowe - LibDem majority last time of 7 over the better-placed of the Labour candidates. The campaign is slightly muted due to the fact that we have a harmonious Lib-Lab coalition. Any others of interest around?
By the way, the ID card Bill concludes its committee stage next week. Discussions have been serious and amicable, in marked contrast, I’m told, to when the Bill was last dealt with in committee before the election.
73 - do you still have to resign because of insolvency? Somebody told me that the Enterprise Act or something had done away with it, but I never had any reason to check it. I thought you (Nick) were supposed to be sweeping away the stigma of being involved in a business that fails through normal business risk rather than mismanagement.
Seems unfair in this day and age - “Failure, as well as success, is an integral part of an enterprise economy.” as Patricia Hewitt put it. Or, for the Tories on the board, “Britain needs more millionaires and more bankrupts” (Keith Joseph).
73. There’s a by election in Leytonstone (Borough of Waltham Forest) where Respect is pulling some efforts.
72. It’ll be interesting to see what this year defeated MPs will do.
Mind you, Adrian Rogers sounds like a member of Stonewall compared to Pastor Fred Phelps, who runs a charming organisation called God Hates Fags (www.godhatesfags.com).
76. Yes, when a gay guy was killed a couple of years ago in USA, Fred Phelps (with all his group) went to the funeral ceremony to shout to the guy’s parents that their son would burn in hell.
Not a very sensible thing to do.
76 - There is nothing wrong in taking a robust anti-smoking line, although he should extend it to chewing and pipe tobacco in the interests of consistency.
“Not a very sensible thing to do.” - pretty vile and disgusting thing to do, and very unchristian (understatement).
…given the popularity of this site and the propensity for people in around parliament to read it…
Must be all these in-depth policy discussions
Oxonian @ 56
I have you know I scored a resounding moral victory!
77. Currently, Phelps has a headline celebrating the London Bombing, while proclaiming the wish that more people had been killed.
82- Really? Why did he want more deaths?
He’s really a sick man!
73. They should be interesting by elections. the 2 tory candidates have put quite a bit of work in I’ve been told. Derwent is perhaps the best tory hope of the 2.
Because the UK is “The Island of the Sodomite Damned!” Andrea. I would go beyond describing him as sick, and describe him as evil.
I think “God Hates Fags” and the Westborough Baptist Church are spoofs. So I wouldn’t worry about the evil too much.
Westborough is I know, but I am really not so sure about GHF. Sadly.
(My evidence for this - among other things - is that the American flag the Westoro Baptist Church supporter is carrying is upside down.)
They’re not (unfortunately). The organisation really is quite notorious in the States.
85 - I think “The Island of the Sodomite Damned” is a good slogan and should form the basis of a UK Tourist Board campaign. We already draw in a lot of the castles’n'countryside crowd and should look to broaden our appeal.
They fly the US Flag upside down in protest at the existence of homosexuality in the US.
“The Island of the Sodomite Damned” would be a good title for a fantasy or horror novel.
Americans For Purity is a good spoof to check out, though not really safe for work.
92 - I think I had the Fighting Fantasy book of it. I completed it in record time, though it’s been on my conscience that I fraudulently turned to page 256 claiming I had a Village People record in my inventory, knowing full well that I had opted to pick up a pair of leather chaps instead when offered the choice between them.
85. I don’t dare to ask for his opinion about Netherlands or today’s Spain.
92.”“The Island of the Sodomite Damned” would be a good title for a fantasy or horror novel. ”
Or an horror movie:
Alan Duncan and Peter Mandelson
starring in
“The Island of the Sodomite Damned”
featuring
Chris Bryant’s Y fronts
and a special appearance by Lord Smith of Finsbury
Andrea you have got an obession with gay British men…
96. yes, but only after my obsession with Helen Clark….
Andrea, you’ve forgotten our Taunton MP. You quite liked him during the campaign…
You’re all absolutely right. Wikipedia is very interesting on them: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Westboro_Baptist_Church_%28Topeka%29
Cheers, Robert
98. The MP for Taunton? The old one or the new one?
I can’t remember.
96.Sophia, don’t worry. My obsession should go away quickly. I’m not very consistent with my “obsession” (not that I like this word very much)
100 - the new one, the Lib Dem.
101. I let Sophia judge:
http://www.tauntonlibdems.org.uk/London/RDLibDem/Home.asp
Book Value, I don’t need another obsession (like Sophia calls them): I’ve already one for Helen Clark (and it’s your fault about this. I could sue you!) and one for Bob Marshall Andrews.
102 - I think you would win substantial damages for something so traumatic.
Sophia complained at the party about the lack of gender equality in the totty threads on vote-2005. I did suggest you could start a male one, but you thought there weren’t enough candidates for it. “Do you prefer - (a) Alan Duncan, (b) Alan Duncan, (c) Robin Cook, (d) Alan Duncan.”
Andrea - very average.
103. I actually started a threads about male MPs in vote 2005, but the site went off line a couple of hours after my post.
Maybe that’s the reason!
Ah yes, the great vote-2005 mystery - will it ever be solved or will conspiracy theories continue to be debated?
104. Sophia, you’re too hard with him. You’ve to consider the average of MPs….
Bookvalue, what are the theories I know Mel Bean but she has been tight lipped about it.
56: I know of 7 Conservative MPs and at least 20 other Conservative candidates who read this site during the election period without posting. Or at least they all knew in detail some of the comments Rik had been making….
73: 15 by-elections tomorrow
Derby/Abbey - Lib Dem
Derby/Derwent - Lab
N Devon/Georgeham - Con/Lib Marginal
Torridge/Taymarside - Ind (unopposed last time)
Rochford/Sweyne Park - Con (unopposed last time)
Uttleford/Gret Dunmow South - Lib Dem
Bridgenorth/Dilton Priors - Con/Ind marginal
South Northants/Cogenhoe - Con (unopposed last time)
Leicester/Beaumont Leys - Lab
Leicester/Belgrave - Safe Lab
Boston/Fishtoft - Con/Lib marginal
East Lindsay/tetford - Con/Ind marginal
Barking/Becontree - Lab
Waltham Forest/Leytonstone - Lab/Lib marginal
Ainwick/Shilbottle - Lib Dem
…and the Aston and Bordesley Green by-elections are up in a fortnight.
I’ve returned home after a slightly over-long lunch (including a BBC man , lots of juicy goss , barely repeatable outside a confessional) and what do I find PB.com has been transformed into Gay Times website !! .
Anyway the repeatable jist is that there is extreme nervousness in Cowley Street that Cheadle isn’t the cut and shut that the Lib Dems had hoped for !! . The Lord R is touchy that the invincible by-election team may not pull this one out. My only heath warning was that this may be spin so that the victory may appear greater than the actuality . My sneak thought not , but conceded his info on North Norfolk at the GE was bolloc*s. I ignored the North Norfolk info and struck hefty gelt . He could be correct this time though .
108 - it has been said that it was closed down when the debates became unfavourable to Tories. Personally I am quite sceptical - for a site that became that popular it’s quite credible that they just ran out of money for the bandwidth. But if that was the reason, you’d think MB would tell you…
i thought it was all the libellous comments flying around. I know Mel wouldn’t shut anything down to curtail freedom of speach. Were all classical liberals.
That was a theory as well - though I’m not sure it was the actual George Galloway posting to threaten a visit from his lawyers.
I’m sure it wasn’t but if someone did want to sue they wouldn’t have trouble tracking the owners down.
113 - Re Vote 2005. I think it was a combination of cost - running a popular site is very expensive - a fear of possible legal actions and the sheer effort of managing it. It became much more trouble that it was worth.
I was able to manage the General Election here because I arranged to take three months off between jobs which meant I could work almost full-time on the site. Also the ethos we have here is totally different and PB.C is almost self-policing.
Yes we have some magic chemistry (at the risk of sounding like Swiss Toni). It is a remarkable achievement.
110-”Waltham Forest/Leytonstone - Lab/Lib marginal”
Respect is claiming that they’re getting great canvassing returns in Leytonstone and they’re neck to neck with Labour. They don’t mention the Libdems.
118. BV, who’s Swiss Toni?
119. Respect seems to have learned from the Libdems to use bar charts.
They came close to beat Labour in the EU elections (ans they were actually in third place).
http://www.respectcoalition.org/pdf/f387.pdf
120 - he is/was a character in “The Fast Show” - a smooth used car salesman who thinks he is a great hit with the ladies.
After 50 entries the consensus of opinion is for a narrow LD win - Winner: LD 34, Con 16
Turnout: mean 46.5%, median 46%
LD Share: mean 46.5%, median 45%
Con Share: mean 42.1%, median 43%
Lab share: mean 8.2%, median 8%
Charles Kennedy to issue a statement on his future plans: Yes 14, No 36.
121, Thanks. For a moment I thought it was another nickname for Tony Blair.
120. My post is confusing. They claim to have came close to beat Labour.
Mike S- thank you for the leadership probability chart- very compelling. I don’t know about you, but…high level, strong upward momentum…almost looks like a done deal.
Thanks also for the welcome, although just for the record, I’m not DD, I’m not Iain Dale, and I’m only Sophia at the weekends.
110: One more that I know of: Oxford/Northfield Brook. Last time it was fought it was a Labour/Independent Working Class Association marginal (one of three in Oxford, incidentally).
Sorry - got that wrong - the Oxford/Northfield Brook by-election is next week. But the IWCA makes for an interesting addition to the alphabet soup of party acronyms.
124 , Wat Tyler . “… I’m only Sophia at the weekends ”
Did I miss something this afternoon …. Is it Gay and Transvestite day on the Site ?
Comment by Jackie W - 13/07/2005 @ 8:33 pm
127. It’s not my fault this time!
128 , Andrea . Yes it is , I bet at this very moment you’re sitting there with Bert Reynold’s moustache , floral ankle length dress , Doc Martin boots, suspenders and chest hair that would shame Guy the Gorilla . Not to mention all those strategic piercings , how did the albert go ?
119 Actual result 2002
Lab 1173-1154-1108
Lib 1027-1014-1010
Con 226-217-203
Grn 450
SocAll 178
That looks like a Lab/Lib marginal to me.
130. I didn’t say it wasn’t a Lab/Lib marginal.
I only said to watch out Respect (for obvious reasons looking at the 2002 results you couldn’t take in consideration Respect).
At the EU Elections (according to Respect’s leaflets), Lab polled 26%,Libdems 19% and Respect 19%.
There’s no doubt it’s between the 2 davids. One Tory Mp i spoke to believes it’s much closer to call than we are led to believe.
As to Davis, I’m not sure about the man. A driver from a top class London firm who has driven many of the top politicians told me that Davis was a total ++++ Davis came across as a total ++++++. He painted a different picture to the man of the people.
I went over to help in Leytonstone for an afternoon and, for what it’s worth, there was little evidence of Respect activity (one old leaflet but nothing recent), lots of Labour canvassers (& they were winning on posters) - perhaps not surprising, as I gather it’s the Labour leader’s ward. On the other hand Waltham Forest Lib Dems have a formidable record of winning local by-elections off Labour - and they certainly seemed to be out-delivering the other parties (I spotted Green and even Tory leaflets there too).
My tip: narrow LD gain
120 - Respect seem to have caught the bug of exaggerating on their bar charts
Actual results Euro Elections Leytonstone Ward
Labour 657 25.6%
Lib Dem 490 19.1%
Respect 467 18.2% (not 19%)
Conservative 248 9.6%
Given the Greens picked up 15% and the UKIP 8% I am not sure what relevance the European elections have on local government either. The Respect result in this ward for the GLA member was 17% and for mayor 11% - similar to the Conservatives.
I’m not saying Respect don’t have a chance, but my gut feeling is that it is likely to go Liberal.
Peter Golds may know more.
Leytonstone result.
Labour 937 38%
Liberal 765 31%
Respect 354 14%
Conservative 225 9%
Green 165 7%
135. Respect seems to have taken voters from the Libdmes and not from Labour.
Yes, I think that Respect probably cost the Lib Dems the seat (although some of their voters will have been ex-Labour and non-voters).
137. The Greens went down too. So some of their voters could have gone to Respect too.
My fleeting impressions of the ward was that it was rather more “leafy” than some of the other recent Waltham Forest by-elections - and with a rather smaller minority ethnic population. These days that may mean it helped Labour and hindered the Lib Dems & Respect a little. Given the amount of effort Respect supposedly put into the seat, their vote doesn’t look that great, but I’m not sure it was such a natural area for them.
As I mentioned in a previous post, on my one visit the place was swarming with Labour canvassers - perhaps not surprising, given that I think Lab leader of the Council represents that ward.
An interesting side-track, but how many council leaders face ‘decapitation’ at the next round of local elections? I know that the Lab leader of Camden council faces a fight, as they lost a by-election in her ward a while back. Any others?