Are Howard, Hague and IDS trying to thwart Davis?
July 17th, 2005
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Is Liam Fox being lined up as the stop DD candidate?
According to the Sunday Telegraph this morning the last three Tory leaders who failed to make it to Number 10 are considering giving their support to Liam Fox in what the paper says would be “a co-ordinated stop David Davis campaign”.
Melissa Kite, the paper’s Deputy Political Editor, notes that William Hague “….. has expressed privately his admiration for Dr Fox but will demonstrate it publicly when the pair jointly stage a champagne reception at the Conservative Party conference in October on the day that Dr Fox launches his candidacy.MPs last night suggested that Dr Fox might also have the backing of Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard in a co-ordinated “stop David Davis” campaign. All three former party leaders have made no secret that they found it difficult to work with Mr Davis, and might be taking their revenge by backing his Right-wing challenger, senior party figures said. Mr Duncan Smith has invited Dr Fox to speak at his Centre for Social Justice think-tank this week. Mr Howard, meanwhile, has appointed Dr Fox, and not his deputy, Michael Ancram, as his envoy to Washington for a meeting with Republicans this month.”
According to Kite the current second favourite, David Cameron, has upset Michael Howard by “..his recent criticism of party strategy and his attack on the policy of scrapping university tuition fees. Mr Howard was said to be “furious” with Mr Cameron’s suggestion that the party had been criticising Labour for the sake of it.”
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Whether this will help or hinder Cameron only time will tell. Certainly being seen as Michael Howard’s preferred choice had both positives and negatives.
The best betting price on Liam Fox is currently 18.5/1 on the Betfair betting exchange and 16/1 with a conventional bookie. At that price it might be worth a few bob.
Mike Smithson
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I’m Sure Cameron would still be prefferred by Mh to DD, but even so this may be Good news for Cameron. Until now Davis’s Major Advantage is he has been seen as the Sole Realistic Candidate from the Right of the Party up against a Gaggle of Challengers from the Center and Left. It may be Calculated or not but if by building up Fox, the three former Leaders Contrive to Split that Previously Solid Block of Support behind Davis, that may not be Such bad News to put it Mildly for Cameron or indded any of the the Other Challenmgers even Kenneth Clarke.
Am I the only one thinking that Fox could be the worst leader (between this year’s contenders) the tories could choose?
2 - I believe Rik W agrees with you Andrea. I actually like Doc Fox and think he would do pretty well.
I’ve done a small amount on Fox - though I don’t think for a second he will win would be fantastic if he did.
4 - I am not so sure Jon, if it becomes down to Davis and Fox (which is a real possibility) I could quite easily see Doc Fox winning.
Andrea, why?
At least Doc vs The Man would give us a choice of two real Tories.
7. Labour will be truly delighted if that is the Sort of Vindictive Attitude the DAvis Camp is displaying towards other SEctions of the Party, Insults like that benefit no one except of Course the Labour Party. Almost an invitation to dissent and division.
But does no one else agree my point. That Davis until now was the Sole Candidate of the Center Right. If that is no longer the case and Fox leeches away what some of which should be natural Davis Support, suddenly there is no front runner, and all Sorts of Longer Shot Candidates like Kenneth Clarke Suddenly hove into View?
We’re DD to fall under the proverbial omnibus, I’d be delighted to see Fox win.
Can’t see it happening though.
@ 8 - Welshman.
The reason this will never happen :
Sorts of Longer Shot Candidates like Kenneth Clarke Suddenly hove into View?
Is because there wouldn’t be a party for him to lead were our MPs stupid enough to select him !
Ten, do you agree on othe other Point though that a Split on the Right between Davis and Fox benefits others? Also so you don’t like KC? Where’s the news in that, plenty of people in the Labour Party don’t much like TB, but that’s outweighed by the fact he’s Led them to Victory three times. I don’t much like some Stuff KC does either, but i think the Right Attitude is Ashcroft’s the only thing that Matters is Winning the Next Election, once in Power things Change. It might be wise though toi drop the insulting tone, see my Post at 8 to Wat Tyler. Thanks.
6. Someone here commented that Davis was too “macho”, Dr Fox is even more “macho”.
I’m probably not a tory voter, so the best candidate for them from my point of view is the one I’ll loath less and Dr Fox is the one I loathe more!
11 Would certainly agree that were either flank ’split’ it would benefit the other flank.
Regarding my “insulting tone” I’ll leave it for others to judge whether it was “insulting” or whether you’re being rather too precious.
12 Andrea - Excellent !!
Finally thinking like a Conservative !!
As a lady Andrea, I totally disagree!
14. Fox is the candidate that he will make me vote tactically to keep the tories out (especially if he’ll start to talk about same sex schools and the neeed of strong male role models for young men).
I’m still undecided between Davis and Cameron. I don’t like Cameron in the way I don’t like Blair….so probably it’s the best candidate. But I need to see them more in action in these months.
Just been reading a bit in the SOS about an ‘incident’ in Westminster involving CK. Apparently if true it could be damaging. No indication of what it relates to so could just be part of a whispering campaign.
FWIW, and i accept I’m not fully qualified to talk about this but I would have thought DC was most appealing to female voters. Seems nice, family guy and not a bad looking lad compared to most other MP’s. Not a huge fan of Dr. Fox, seems to enamoured with the US Republicans which I just don’t think would translate well over here.
I can see that someone might oppose single-sex education strongly, but why on earth does stressing the need for strong male role models for young men make you want to vote tactically against someone?
15- Aren’t all those talks about single sex schools, cadet schemes run by the armed forces, strong male models ver “macho”?
And then when he talks about the “fatherless generation”, it seems that he’s blaming the single mothers again.
And it’s better not to start with the Natalie Imbruglia thing…..
Well Ok Tory Boy, maybe you weren’t it was Just the Wat Tyler, you can only be this if you like Davis Attitude that seemed Vindictive as opposed to Magnanimous. As for yourself it just made me think of the phrase Purity before Power, and an image of GB into his third term as PM as the Opposition preserve their Ideological Purity. What U make of Guido’s report that Hague is happy top serve under anyone except Basher?
When the leader who saved the pound duped the leader who removed the Gypsies stabbed in the back the leader who was too quiet who would have imagined they would all get to-gether to support Dr Fox?
Poor Liam.
18. It’s not that particular policy that he would make me to vote tactically to keep him out. It’s Dr Fix as a whole. I don’t like him. I’ll take Davis over him everyday.
Re strong male models: I don’t like all this emphasis. I find him very “macho” and I don’t like these type of things (like I didn’t like the Blair interviews before the election when he praised his sexual activities). I don’t know why.
Welshman- Quite right to slap me on the wrist for being flippant.
Putting my point more diplomatically, it seems to me that Davis and Fox are the only contenders who’ve shown real confidence in traditional Tory beliefs.
For example, many of us believe that our core belief in consumer choice and competition should be applied to sort out our underpeforming public services. But for that to work we must accept the risk that some consumers might make the wrong choices, and some providers might supply duff services resulting eventually in their going out of business.
Our modernisers wouldn’t want to take that risk, preferring to stick to the Labour managerial agenda of gradual top-down reform (see eg George Osborn in the Observer today, wanting us to present ourselves as ‘Blairites par excellence’)
Now you may or may not agree with me about the best policy in terms of achieving better public services, but that’s what I was trying to get at. There is a big gulf between those that are prepared to trust our traditional beliefs, and those who’d prefer to think we could ‘outmanage’ Labour.
17- Max, what incedent? Is CK Charles Kennedy?
17. You can’t blame him celebrating the win in Cheadle even over a couple of days……..
17 - “Apparently if true it could be damaging.”
Sounds like the libel lawyers have been at their copy…
25-26- What the hell did he do?
24 & 25 - Andrea yes CK is Charles Kennedy. The guy writing it (Alan Cochrane, Scottish political correspondent for the Daily Tel. and columnist for the SOS) didn’t allude to what it was about. He also mentioned that Ming Campbell has been doing a lot of shmoozing with journalists in recent weeks but nothing more than that.
I can’t see Hague backing Fox (surely the least electable, least *tested* of all the possible candidates)… “That said” he did originally back Michael Howard in ‘97, back when MH was the least suitable candidate. Hague’s political stock might have risen since he quit, this suggests his judgement remains as flawed. (Though, admittedly, not as bad as Portillo’s.)
23 - Wat, the difficulty is that the traditions of the Tory party can be interpreted in many different ways. What is traditional to a Thatcherite may not be seen as traditional to a one-nation Conservative. I don’t think its possible for one candidate to lay claim to the party’s history.
25 was just just a guess!
23 - therein lies the problem. How longstanding does a belief have to be for it to be “traditional”. Historically the strength of the Tory party has been to adapt its beliefs as necessary to the extent that they have held most political positions under the sun. It is rare that a situation such as 1979 occurs where things are so bad that the public are prepared to take a radical risk in breaking with the status quo, whereby people like to moan a bit but never really want things to change.
I would welcome Dr F as a candidate and leader, he comes over far better than DD. Given that teh election is not FPTP then splitting the ‘right’ vote doesnt let anyone else in. KC would result in no party to do the work on the ground, and how could the Party regain its repitation for economic competance by having the last Cons Chancellor as Leader, however good a job he actually did. We need to forget any thought of a Cabinet Minister from that dreadful Major Gvt. Labels like ‘right wing’ really mean very little to ordinary voters, after all Mrs T was ‘right wing’ and won - three times.
28. Thanks. Maybe it’s just a rumour/gossip like the one about DD having a dark secret.
33 - I’m afraid I think that a label like ‘right-wing’ does still mean something to a lot of people. It tends to have overwhelmingly negative connotations and if the media (in particular the BBC) present the next leader as another lurch to the right then I think it will be very difficult to regain lost Tory voters who have gone to the Lib Dems and Labour. it goes back to the idea of people not feeling ite respectable to vote Conservative.
20 Fair enough Welshy - No harm done what !?
For what it’s wort, yes I am a believer in purity over power. I can’t say often enough that when the political tide turns, as it will one day (discuss!), that we will need to offer something different from Labour rather than ‘more of the same, but better’.
Wat’s posting @ 23 is spot on (so far as I’m concerned !)
Regarding Hague, it would be a shame, but DD on (What was) Frost this morning was pretty unfazed and basically said it might well not be true in any event.
We will see - I just wish that they would b*****y well get on with it!
As things stand the conference in October is going to be a zero policy, maximum infighting PR disaster !
I think Fox is quite a gifted presenter. Hearing him on the radio reacting to the French referendum result, he seemed sensible, non-gloating and got his point across well.
However, if Cameron raised eyebrows by talking about tax incentives for marriage, Fox’s US-style social conservative implications are off the scale. He is very capable of alienating a lot of people in the way that Portillo and Lilley have at least had the good sense to recant doing in the Major years. I agree with Jon at 4 - I think the Lib Dems would do pretty well among moderate voters when facing off against a Fox Tory party.
On a more 3am Girls note, what was the story with Natalie Imbruglia? Did she make him tone down his claims of having dated her? (Having said that, I think there are few men who wouldn’t want to paint their acquaintance with her in the fullest possible light.)
I Don’t know abo0ut Osborne i think it is his view of what the Public are prepared to accept at any given time. 32 Is right re 1979, remember just how bad things had to get befpre the Public were no longer Prepared to give the Corporatist Attitude of Labour the Benefit of the Doubt.
As for Davis to me it is like this he has great Products to Sell, but as any Businessman will tell you trying to launch a new product onto the market is immsensely difficulta and unless you have a Superb Salesman you won’t sell the Product no matter how good it is, because most Punters follow the Crowd. That’s it for me. He Just doesn’t Connect with ordinary Punters outside the Tory Party.
That’s why only two guys seems close to Winning the George “W” Bush pint Prize, in other words even when he was behind in the Polls he was Always Ahead in Likeability. Only two guys presently fit that bill, KC who i accept maybe impossible for Europe Views which incidentally i oppose and Cameron.
Davis is good at what he does, but he just doesn’t give that impression (you may despise it but it is devastatingly effective) that he can feel the VOter Pain, in the way that Blair and very more masterfully Clinton Coulds.
Sorry 38 was for Wat Tyler.
Liam Fox reminds me of that wonderful old rhyme..
I do not like the Doctor Fell
The reason why I cannot tell
But this I know and know full well
I do not like thee Doctor Fell
Mike, I see (via Guido) that your follicular speculations on DD have made it into the Sunday Times.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2088-1697225_2,00.html
36. See the Economist week before last. I think this Period is veryvaluable. One no one listens to a defeated oposition in the dog days of Summer anywayt so nothings is lost and two a lot of bad blood has built up, it means everyone can have a damn good row without undermining the New leader, By Mid November probably a New Leader will be in place. Only if the Leadership Candidates use the Podium for direct Personal Unmistakeable Attacks on each other will your fears be realised, and as it would be Suicide for them to do so as the Party would hold them Accountable, your fears are Groundless i Think.
41. Your Link doesn’t seem to Work. Cheers.
43 - ah, the commas confuse the board. You’ll need to cut and paste the whole thing into your browser rather than clicking the link.
Max and Alex- words, words, words…you’re both right- the Tory Party has expressed all kinds of different beliefs over the years. It puts me in mind of that wonderful quote from Keith Joseph after he’d suddenly seen the light in the dark days of Wilson Mk 2: ‘It was only in April 1974 that I was converted to Conservatism. I had thought that I was a Conservative, but now I see that I was not one at all.’
OK, I assume nobody on here is a mad monk- or a religious scholar of any kind- so let me drop the claim that anyone has exclusive rights to “traditional Tory beliefs”.
Let me just say that among the things I personally like about Davis are his free market convictions, and the policies he espouses to reduce the role of government in public services. I believe some of these convictions, and possibly policies, are shared by Fox. But I do not believe they are shared by the other main contenders.
So we have a real choice of platforms, not just personalities. And for me, only two of the candidates seem to espouse my preferred platform.
Now that must be polite/anodyne enough for everyone.
This is what Atticus had in the Sunday Times today
Punters bet Blair is here to stay but Davis’s hair is not
Bad news at the bookies for chancellor Gordon Brown. According to the betting markets, Tony Blair looks set for a fourth term as prime minister despite promising to resign before the next election. “This seems to be the most popular political bet at the moment,” says Warren Lush of Ladbrokes, who is offering odds of 16/1. “There is a growing feeling that Blair will go back on his word.”
I turn for advice to politicalbetting.com, but find a completely different debate is raging: does David Davis wear a wig? “His parting is always exactly the same,” says one mischievous contributor. Surely the Tory leadership favourite has a fine head of hair. Anybody taking bets on this?
Re 46. I should add that I have now found a picture which seems to solve this mystery. I’ll put it up in the next day or so.
I do wish certain people who are about as likely ever to vote Conservative as I am ever to vote Labour would stop trying to suggest their preferences are what the next Tory leader must satisfy. How many of the people here sneering at Davis’ tax-cutting instincts, Fox’s social conservatism and Cameron’s support for marriage voted to give the Tories their landslides and their governing majorities in the 1980s and 1990s? Not many, I think it’s safe to say - so they aren’t essential now, either. The party really shouldn’t be looking to win over the Guardian- and Independent-reading tendency. It’s Sun readers and Daily Mail readers out in Middle England who make up the floating voters who will decide the next election.
37. The Natalie Imbruglia affair is still a bit unclear. Dr Fox will finally wed in December. Probably not a casual moment to announce his engagement. Now he only needs at least 2 children to be a family man.
45.”Let me just say that among the things I personally like about Davis are his free market convictions, and the policies he espouses to reduce the role of government in public services. I believe some of these convictions, and possibly policies, are shared by Fox. But I do not believe they are shared by the other main contenders.”
Alan Duncan is very pro free market too and he wants to reduce the role of the state to its bare essentials and the minimisation of taxes. I think he’s seen on the “left” of the party only because he’s not socially conservative.
46. Regarding Blair and a 4th term, the Guardian has an article about him being involved in the next campaign, but as a “former PM”.
48 - I don’t really expect you to take advice from me. But in your opinion, what is it that Hague, IDS and Howard got wrong in attracting the Middle England floating voters?
If a Tory leader fought an election on a platform of converting the UK into the British Soviet Socialist Republic, there are people who would still characterise it as a “lurch to the right.”
48- what a good way to have a debate…..
F50, Re Hague Guido, i think makes a Pretty Good Analysis i Think. Who even KC would have Stood a Chance against the Wunderkind in his Halcyon Days 1994-2002?
49 - I think at a pinch, Lord Tebbit would accept a candidate with only one child.
And yes, if it makes sense at all to talk of the “modernisers”, they are not straightforwardly on the left of the party, but a coalition of economic centrists and social libertarians.
Andrea, Alan Duncan’s reputation as a minimal state libertarian comes from the 1995 book ‘Saturn’s Children: How the State Devours Liberty, Prosperity and Virtue’, which he co-wrote with Dominic Hobson. The book twinned very strong minimal state thinking with a strong social conservatism that recognised the way problems like family breakdown increased the role of the state and traditional social norms acted against the growth of government. That’s a very different set of views than the Portillista vision he has associated himself with since 2001, which really is libertarian only on the issues of cannabis and homosexuality. Saturn’s Children libertarianism certainly puts someone on the Right of the party. Portillista thinking on the other hand puts someone on the left of the party. So Duncan has a strong claim to each, depending on what period you look at.
book value, I’m a bit suspicious of the question. Why did you leave John Major’s defeat in 1997 out (the worst of all) but mention IDS, who never fought a General Election? Are you attempting to credit John Major with the Tories being in power prior to 1997 and then blame leaders from the right of the party for Labour being in power since? We’ve done better, not worse, under Hague in 2001 and Howard in 2005 than we did under Major in 1997.
I certainly have my views on what the Conservatives can do a lot better, but I think the overwhelming point is that it’s important to realise it’s not all about us, and to be humble about how much the Tories alone can achieve as an opposition party when most of the decisions that affect how people vote in 2009 or 2010 will be taken by the government, not by us. No leader could have won in 2001, for example, so to ask what, for example, Hague did wrong is important but missing the bigger picture.
54. Read Guido on Hague. Cheers.
“Why did you leave John Major’s defeat in 1997 out (the worst of all) but mention IDS, who never fought a General Election? Are you attempting to credit John Major with the Tories being in power prior to 1997 and then blame leaders from the right of the party for Labour being in power since?”
No, not really. I included IDS because the reason he was ousted was presumably the certain (and probably accurate) conviction he was going to lose a General Election. The reason, I suppose, that Major didn’t come to mind in my question was that originally electing him was a success in that he went on to win in 1992.
Liam Fox as a serious contender for the leadership? God help us. He’d be another IDS without the gravitas for people to picture him as a potential Prime Minister and without the ability to broaden his appeal beyond a very narrow base. I think a lot of the man on a personal basis, but I think he’d be a disaster for the party at this point in time.
Sophia - Do I detect some waffling on your part between Cameron and Fox now?
54.”The book twinned very strong minimal state thinking with a strong social conservatism that recognised the way problems like family breakdown increased the role of the state and traditional social norms acted against the growth of government.”
Could you explain me (briefly) what type of traditional social norms he was referring?
53.”I think at a pinch, Lord Tebbit would accept a candidate with only one child”
But 2 is always the perfect number! Alan Duncan should buy some dogs soon if he wants to be a serious contender
58 - but would they get on with his ducklings?
I remember that in the book, Dominic Cummings cited soldiers in WWI singing “Do your balls hang low, can you swing them to and fro?” as evidence of moral decline. That aside, it was a very stimulating read.
I’d have to re-read it though to answer your question Andrea.
59. He’ll keep the ducklings in London and the dogs in Rutland.
He couldn’t end his biography only saying “I’m single with 2 duckinlings”. It’s better: “I’m single with 2 beautiful dogs (called Maggie)
I just can’t see Fox as the anti-Davis candidate, he’s a stalwart of the hard right of the party and is not only a reliable Thatcherite on economic issues he’s one of the more socially conservative Tory’s in the commons, he’s social conservatism in of its self isn’t the issue, the real problem is that he is very keen to make social issues such as single sex education, abortion etc… a major campaign issue.
The fact that Fox comes from the hard right of the party also posses problems, many of Davis’ opponents stand in the centre or left of the party and would be very unlikely to back to back Fox over Davis, indeed given the choice and with the example of figures such as Damien Green its is probable that most would plum for the Shadow Home Sectary IMHO… meanwhile Cameron has already emerged as both Davis’s main rival and the standard bearer of the progressive wing of the party.
From my perspective, as a Labour Party member, I’d love to see Fox as Tory leader, not only does he offer anything new in terms of domestic policy if anything he would advocate an even more militantly rightwing approach, an aggressive campaigning style and would (like Hague) try to make issues from Europe, Immigration as well as introducing divisive issues such as Abortion, Gay rights (in some guise), single sex education etc… that most people simply don’t care about and worse yet would feed into the perception of the Tory party as out of touch and extreme.
So not only do I think it unlikely that Fox would be capable of winning the backing of sufficient MPs as an unashamedly hard right candidate to beat Davis but at the same time I think he’d be an unmitigated disaster where he to become Tory leader…
PS: Mike, is that photo from the Tory Hospital visit in Wolverhampton where the press asked a large assembly of nurses standing with Michael Howard how many of them would be voting Tory by a show of hands and not one put up their hand… my moment of the campaign for me
58 - Mr Matlock, I am not “waffling between Cameron and Fox” more if it came down to Davis and Fox, Fox would be preferable.
The more I see and hear about David Davis, the more the thought (as a Conservative) of him being leader absolutely horrifies me.
Andrea, I think the quickest way to give a flavour of the book’s social conservatism is to quote some of the chapter headings and sub-headings. They include:
“The Destruction of the Moral Order”
“The Age of Moral Relativity”
“The End of Moral Absolutism”
“The Destruction of the Family by the State”
“The Family as the Nursery of Morality”
“Permissive Legislation”
“The Rise of the Divorcing Society”
“The Demoralisation of the Individual”
“How the Welfare State Shrinks Moral Opportunities”
“The Role Played by the Collapse of the Family”
See what I mean?
Speaking for myself, I wasn’t always a social conservative, except perhaps on issues of crime and punishment where a tough line has always come naturally to me. I used to have down the line liberal views on issues like abortion, divorce, marriage and drugs, and no book did more to change my mind on these matters than Duncan and Hobson’s “Saturn’s Children”.
63.”the real problem is that he is very keen to make social issues such as single sex education, abortion etc… a major campaign issue.”
yes, I agree. You usually don’t win elections proposing or opposing sex education/gay rights/abortion, etc (excluding the US).
The great majority of voters don’t see them as the top issues that will decide their vote (and so in the 80’s they voted for Thatcher’s tories who opposed them and now vote for Labour which has a different approach). You could advocate them, but they don’t have to become the main focus of the campaign.
61. Sean, you don’t have to be a social conservative to find that song a bit tasteless.
It was widely agreed Howard’s stance on abortion won him senior Catholic support, Andrea. I think where people go wrong on this matter is assuming that because the particular issues that dominate the US culture wars don’t have the same resonance here, then no other issues do and so all British politics needs to be about the economy, foreign policy etc. There are certainly cultural issues in Britain that have much greater resonance than in the US, and much more potential for political gain - immigration most obviously.
64 - Sophia - I’m very glad to hear it! I’m sorry if my comment came across as patronising to chiding (as I see now that it could have done upon re-reading it) and I assure you I meant it in a completely jovial and good natured way.
Though I must differ with you a prospective Davis - Fox contest. I this scenario Davis would be my preferred option as I do see him as a safe pair of hands at least, someone who is unlikely to lead us backward as I fear Dr Fox may do. The problem with Davis is that I don’t believe he has the necessary personality and appeal to broaden our base and take us back to the winning coalition we held together for decades in the last century. This is what I believe David Cameron to be capable of and why I feel he is our best option.
What I find amazing about alot of social conservatives is that they cannot (or refuse to) see the role of the ultra free market as a destabilising force on things like family structure.
Will, if by ultra-free-market you mean the sort of society where no laws exist to prevent brothels opening up next to WH Smith and the broadcast of hard core pornography every hour of the day, I don’t know any social conservatives who refuse to see that as a threat to traditional values and things like the family structure, or who support such a society. Social conservatives tend to support the free market and minimal state because it ensures people have to take personal responsibility for their own choices, rather than forcing the cost onto the taxpayer.
86 - I didn’t find your comment patronising, I leave that sort of thing to Roger!
Peter @65. I haven’t read the book but I do recall the furore at the time over its apparent support for the legalisation of hard drugs from which IIRC Alan Duncan had to qualify in the second edition. Here (thanks to Lord Google of Omnscience) is what Duncan himself has ‘clarified;
http://www.alanduncan.org.uk/media/saturnschildrenchapter.htm
Either way, I’m not sure how holding such views can be compatible with what is usually understood as ’social’ conservatism.
All I can say about Liam Fox is that over thirty years of Conservative support would very likely be ’suspended’ were the party to take leave of its senses….
67-”It was widely agreed Howard’s stance on abortion won him senior Catholic support, Andrea”
and how many votes the tories gained with this stence? The tories need to gain support from voters, not from 3 bishops (btw do they vote?).
And tories stences on abortion weren’t a main focus of the campaign. I warned against the risks to make them the main focus of a campaign. It’s ok to raise these issues like they did with abortion this year.
65. Thanks.
I once read him complaining about the “attacks” to single mothers made by the tories in the past…. it seems that he had some U turns too.
71 - Of course! It is something best left to an expert, don’t you agree?
63. Ben. You are right the picture was taken on his visit to Wolverhampton. This is the URL
http://www.conservativesintouch.com/uploaded/files/wolverhamptonsouthwest_com/Howard_Fox_Verma.jpg
73 - Catholic bishops can vote. It’s only the Anglican bishops in the House of Lords who are not allowed to vote in elections for the Commons.
I am not sure in practice how many do vote.
74 - Indeed. And I blame the Cheadle result on Roger - when he started to give us a chance, I knew we were doomed.
Looking at that picture, it strikes me that Liam Fox bears an unlikely resemblance to Christopher Hitchens.
My local (anglican) vicar was a card carrying labour supporter and used to have labour posters in his window during election time, which I always felt was wrong for your priest to show his political allegiances.
72 - John - All this Fox stuff being kicked up in the papers this morning seems like someone flying a kite to me. Surely Howard has not spent years ‘grooming’ DC (if his rumoured support for him is true) only to chuck him overboard at the first sign of a break with the past on DC’s part. Howard will understand better than anybody the need for DC to strike out and establish his own profile in people’s minds, distinct from roles he’s played in the past in support of others.
Having said that, I’m sure there will be no shortage of interesting twists and turns along the road to the party conference between now and October.
What’s your view of it all?
Re. 70 Yes but Peter things like the level of regulation in the labour market have a big impact on family structure, flexibility from an employers point of view is insecurity for the employee.
78 - Your not trying to make Charlie Kennedy style allegations on Doc Fox are you! Talking from a female perspective, Liam Fox about 5 or more years ago was really one of the better looking MPs but age (a few deep fried mars bars) does seem to have catched up with him.
79 - the first election I worked in (for Labour when I was young and foolish) was on behalf of a candidate who was an Anglican vicar, though not within the ward itself.
I wonder if there have been any polls of C of E clergy. The “Tory party at prayer” idea is probably a long way in the past now.
79.”My local (anglican) vicar was a card carrying labour supporter and used to have labour posters in his window during election time, which I always felt was wrong for your priest to show his political allegiances”
If you come to Italy, some priests will even tell you how to vote….
I believe there have been polls on the church of england clergy and yes, the “Tories at prayer” view of the CofE is at least 30 years out of date.
82 - I was setting myself up for that one really, but I was mostly just thinking of physical appearance. Christopher Hitchens as the local GP would be a strange image now, but wind back 50 years and you he might just fit in.
http://www.old-time.com/commercials/camels.html
I think you are right - from that picture, Fox is fatter than I remembered him and still imagine him. No dates with popstrels for him these days.
83. Book Value, I’m not surprised… even Chris Bryant was a vicar!
82. I saw a couple of mid 90’s photos of Dr Fox and I can’t find many changes (compared to now).
And of course Private Eye’s series about Tony Blair portrays him as the Vicar of St Albion’s.
79 - My local Vicar is a staunch Tory, but he would be here in the Shires.
83 - BV - You’ve quite right, it’s an antiquated notion. The CofE has been moving in a socially liberal direction for 20 years or more now that a lot of traditional Tories probably find difficult to stomach. I would hazard to guess that there is probably more sympathy for the Conservative Party amongst Church-going Roman Catholics thesedays than Church-going Anglicans.
87 - so in your eyes, has Liam Fox still got it, or did he never have it in the first place?
BV - To some of us at the pb.com party, you are still young…and, er, yes….
Alastair@80. Completely agree :). My thoughts on developments, such as they are, were summarised in this musing on yesterday’s thread. You will see I’ve finally become a Cameronite:
“….We Tories have always been the ‘nasty’ party (who needs Mrs May’s cliched twitterings when the fusillades of pullulation from Winston Churchill in the 1900s, and Nye Bevan - “I hate the Tories, they’re lower than vermin” - in the 1940s have so much more resonance
But, but, but, the Tories were seen as competent: they might be repulsive but they were usually right, at least on economic management. Hummpf, 1992-97 put an end to all that… Don’t want to misnterpret Nick Palmer earlier, but the absolutely necessary condition for the Tories to regain voters’ trust is actually that Labour is no longer seen as economically competent.
But clearly, the party must address its public perception. And, having sat on the fence for so long, that the iron has begun to enter the soul, looks to me that David Cameron, for all the risks, is best placed to tackle that problem, as well as being able to develop a credible economic strategy. Very much influenced by the discussions here, though the final clincher was that surreal Telegraph interview [Davis] that pressed all the wrong buttons for this delicate blue flower….”
7 Wat Tyler I hope that your statement here is not sanctioned by David Davis. It is the sort of negative and nasty thing that us Tories must leave behind and deal with the positive whether in an internal or national campaign. We are never going to win again unless we do and if your candidate sanctions that sort of approach he is not going to be the one who restores us Tories to government, because it will perpetuate the same of image and associate us with the same old failure.
It also promotes disunity.
What positive message have you about your preferred candidate?
John O @ 72 - I’d heartily recommend the whole book - not merely its best known chapter. The stance on drugs is unusual but not necessarily contradictory. I think we can agree Victorian England was a pretty socially conservative period. Laws against drugs in those days were paltry to non-existent. The less liberal a society’s culture is, the more liberal its laws can be without it resulting in widespread social harm.
Andrea, are you saying you have some figures on Catholic votes that suggest the Catholic Church coming out in Howard’s favour over abortion did no electoral good? I’ve certainly not seen any.
81 - I think that’s an economic argument unrelated to family structure. Whether an employee is single or married with twenty children, conservatives tend to think he’ll be better off overall in a labour market where it’s not horrendously expensive to give people jobs and not almost impossible to let them go again than in one where many levels of social protection protect the employed at the expense of the unemployed.
I really can’t see their being much substance to the stories about Liam Fox. Indeed as John O says at 72 for many activists it could be the final straw. He, along with Davis have been on or around the front bench for some time and neither have really set the heather on fire. I just can’t see them offering anything new to the party.
On a very sad note I’ve just seen Sky news are reporting that Sir Edward Heath is reaching the end of his life.
90. Thinking well, he’s fatter (especially in the photo at the top of this thread).
Here’s a little profile photo of Dr Fox in 1994:
http://edwina.currie.co.uk/Images/ec_speaking2.jpg
(warning: Edwina Currie is wearing an horrible pink jackett in that photo)
94 - that is indeed sad news. I particularly respect Heath for continuing a Commons career many years beyond the end of a premiership much of which had to be quite miserable.
Re. 72, John O, good for you - he’s insufferable. At least one journalist has commented on his high opinion of himself. What with the joke about the Spice Girls (’What do you call three dogs and a blackbird?’), he comes over as a Scottish Jim Davidson. Natalie Imbruglia’s comment on his insinuations that the two of them were more than friends was ‘Oh please!’.
Re. 63, this is probably the first time I’ve ever disagreed with Ben - I’d really rather not take any risk that Fox could ever become PM! Just as with Hague and Howard (though not IDS, until he started ‘the quiet man is turning up the volume’ nonsense and cheap jokes about Kennedy’s drinking habits), the thought of him representing our country abroad is unbearable (as it would be, say, with some people on my own side, eg Beverley Hughes, Clare Short, or Geoff Hoon). I don’t have the same revulsion towards Messrs Davis or Cameron (in fact, not only would they be reasonable candidates for Prime Minister, but I’d be happy to have a drink with either).
It’s all too easy to say that an opposition leader is so hopeless he could never become PM - the same was said of Heath and Thatcher. Had the fuel crisis gone on a day longer, William Hague might well be PM now.
82. Sophia, Charles Kennedy style allegations ? Whatever could you mean ? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/04/05/nfox05.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/04/05/ixnewstop.html&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=67333
91 - Excellent news, John. Welcome aboard!
I trust you read Matthew Parris’ endorsement of Cameron in yesterday’s Times? I noticed on the other threat that Sophia had drawn the attention of our members here to it.
I would not presume to suggest that the views of Parris and other commentators like him are pivotal, but it does seem to me that Cameron is creeping ever near the critical mass he requires to dispel any doubt that he is the only serious challenger for the leadership aside from Davis. It will be interesting to see where the balance of the Parliamentary party begins to fall over the next several weeks.
Interesting posts above on the C of E. Of course, the relentless decline of the Church of England has coincided exactly with its abandonment of its traditional values and social attitudes. The lessons of this are not entirely irrelevant for a certain political party today.
93.”Andrea, are you saying you have some figures on Catholic votes that suggest the Catholic Church coming out in Howard’s favour over abortion did no electoral good? I’ve certainly not seen any.”
How many voters did the tories gain this year? 0.6%
It seems that this abortion stence didn’t move towards the tories lots of voters overall.
94 - Unbelievably the BBC have a link to an obituary on their website. It goes to a non-existent web-site but it seems a little crass. Do they not even realise he’s not dead yet.
98 - I laughed at this bit:
His friends ranged from Mother Teresa, with whom he kept up a regular correspondence, to Cindy from EastEnders.
A classic of the puff piece genre. With this and the Davis piece, Alice Thomson either has a lovely absurdist touch, or goes a bit over the top without realising it.
However, in all seriousness there is an allegation here which calls his leadership credentials into question.
When he sees a photographer, he tightens his tie and puts on his jacket.
89 - AHM, The feeling seems to be mutual, with many Conservative taking the Manning/Newman route. Widdecombe comes to mind, but I might have forgotten him. Our local vicar was a lib dem but we kept this a secret and carried on winnig the County seat.
Given the changes to the law on clergy voting, it is time the bishops were reformed out of the House of Lords.
99. Yes can someone Link to that again? Cheers.
94. Sorry about Heath, even if he did have an unfortunate Habit of exusing even after he left Office when Realpolitik Considertaion were no longer a FacTor the Geriatric Dictators in Beijing.
Max, their short news story on him “getting weaker” ( http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4691051.stm ) is also factually wrong on two points.
Troops were deployed in Ulster in 1969, when Harold Wilson was Prime Minister. And Heath specifically wrote to Margaret Thatcher after the 1979 Election requesting the post of Foreign Secretary. It was she who refused to have him serve under her, not the other way around.
103. but he’s having the correspondence with the actress or with the character?
94 - Very sad news indeed. For a long time I harboured a lot of antipathy toward Ted for the ‘longest sulk in history’ as it came to be known and for his constant sniping at Mrs Thatcher while she was Prime Minister, but he is a fine intellect and his devotion to the country was beyond question. May God have mercy on his soul.
Alastair, Yes I did as soon as Sophia posted the link yesterday, and was much impressed. Like Parris, if I understood him correctly, and as others here have also noted, I do think that the Eton/Notting Hill aura of wealth and privilege is a substantive challenge that he and the party are going to have to surmount. But his virtues, added to the risks engendered by a Davis leadership, outweigh such reservations.
But of all the likely candidates, only Liam Fox carries the black spot.
Re. 102, yes I noticed that - ‘a bit previous’ as they say where I live.
I suspect the best obituary for Heath (if he doesn’t survive this severe illness) will be John Campbell’s excellent 1993 biography.
101. A party that insists on keeping “Unionist” in its title is unlikely to gain many Catholic votes, especially here in Scotland.
All debate over the leadership is about to go on hold for a few days. Sir Edward Heath is, according to his spokesman, nearing the end of his life. He’s said to be close to death.
109 - Yes, grudgingly, I acknowledge that you’re probably right. Personally, I don’t care what social class someone is from or who their parents were or how much money they’ve got if they’re the best person for the job, that should be all that matters. The Davis line, or at least those of some of Davis’ supporters, on Cameron smacks of the Old Labour class warfare approach of the 60s, 70s and 80s which I thought was contemptible then and I still do today. It’s amazing to me to think that being the product of a good home, having received a good upbringing and a first class education should actually rule someone OUT (in the minds of some) of contention for the nation’s top political job.
Hopefully he won’t suffer and he will rest in peace.
Opps sorry, didn’t read the above comments.
Oops sorry, didn’t read the above comments.
John O - I´m not sure I can follow your words of wisdom for once. I suppose you are right about the Tories having lost their reputation for economic competence. Yet I am not at all sure about your dates (1992-1997). I voted for Bernie Grant in 1992 (partly because I thought he was the best possible MP for the area, partly because I was unconvinced by Tory economic management (Howe slump, Lawson boom - surely worst management for years and years - etc)). But I returned to the fold in 1997 because - once Lamont had gone - Clarke seemed to me to have managed the economy extremely well.
With that said, I agree that David D is not the man to lead the Tories back to the promised land. Yet David C seems to be a gamble of WH/IDS proportions. I should add that I have found something slightly distateful in the way he seeks to obtain political credit from his severely disabled son. Well, that is probably a personal thing, so ignore me. Still GB will be a much less appealing Labour leader than TB. The Tories will need someone who is clearly up to the job.
Re. 113, the traffic is (if some accounts in the papers are to believed) two way, with some of the Notting Hill set (allegedly) having referred to Davis as a ‘frightful oik’.
I think one thing that runs in favour of both the two Davids is that their accents sound normal (despite having attended the same school as Prince William, Cameron sounds less plummy), and that they don’t have the ‘funny’ accents of Major (’wunt’), Hague, or Howard. Davis has one of the most notably classless accents heard in British politics for quite some time.
I don’t know if inverse snobbery has reached the point where public school accents are mocked, but those who try to acquire public school (or even RP) accents from what Nancy Mitford called ‘non-U’ backgrounds certainly are, even if a poll recently found that most Britons still put on ‘a telephone voice’.
118 - Yes, there has been sniping on both sides, but to to be fair, Davis has surrounded himself with a lot of people (Eric Forth, Derek Conway) who have a reputation for being bruisers. They should not be surprised at having their fire returned. I can say with confidence that the Cameron camp would not have started such an exchange and would not pursue a personal line unless they were forced to in the face of such attacks from their opponent, which is not something, regrettably, I can believe so readily of Davis - and let me be clear that when I say Davis, I don’t so much mean the man himself as the people around him. As I said on the previous thread yesterday, it does none of us any credit to get into the muck with the other and it should be avoided if at all possible because we are all going to have to pick up and work together when the leadership is settled if we’re going to have any chance at all in 2009.
What is the real skills specification for a Tory leader?
Several posters have spoken of particular candidates having particular policy positions with something of attitudes and experience. But the lists have been randon and policy, surely, is not the main concern, not least as policy will have to be something that the party can unite behind and will be attractive to the electorate. The leader will have a massive influence on it, of course. Her/his tendencies to one position or another are important, therefore, in who to support. But is it the most important one. It is certainly not the only characteristic or skill that needs assessing.
Assuming the objective is to win elections and to retain power my quick list is:
- Ability it build and hold a team together; disunity destroys a campaign and ruins a government
- Be seen by the electorate as a leader of an attractive brand: just as the famous and infamous are used to create and sell brands of consumer goods so a leader has to have the ability to create and sell the party brand. Something Blair was once very good at.
- An ability to generate trust from and with his team and from the electorate: intrinsic to the first two.
- And that will be only possible with recognised good judgement (and that includes admitting getting things wrong now and then)
- Tough and determined enough to suffer the slings and arrows: there will be many and a leader has to be resilient enough not to show the strain not deviate from sensible paths because of them not make rash judgement under pressure
- An ability to present all his positions, even when opposing, in a publicly perceived positive and polite way.
- Have core beliefs that match the party programme so he/she can act will confidence and which will provide the internal moral support needed to get the job of government done right.
- An innate desire to mange the country well and get value for money for the tax payer.
There may be more, but if this is treated as a recruitment exercise evidence will be necessary and slagging of other candidates scores nul points.
120. These are the skills required not only for a tory leader, but for every parties leaders.
117. Cameron has never exploited that. Journalists ask him, because they ask about all Politician’s Backgrounds and he answers them. He has never paraded his Children for PhotoCalls unlike Say TB.
97 – Richard
Taking off my partisan hat, I’d agree with you both Cameron and Davis are reasonable and honourable individuals the same cannot IMHO be said of Dr Fox, indeed I’d even admit that (again without wearing my partisan hat
) both Cameron and Davis would be capable leaders with the very best of intentions… Fox however strikes me firstly as not particularly gifted, secondly an ideologue with little in the way of original thoughts and thirdly he strikes me as a pretty course and unpleasant person.
You right to point out that our party has learnt to its cost, both with Heath and Thatcher, not wish terrible leaders on the Tory Party there is of course no golden rule that such a leader of the opposition cannot still some how come to power, and for the good of the country I’d really urge the Tory Party to choose between Cameron and Davis both of whom would be good leaders of their party and potentially good PMs.
Sad to hear about Ted Heath, my opinion of him was always shaped by the fact my mother wrote him a letter in the mid-70’s and got a hand written response, its always left me with a favourable opinion of the man.
Re. 119, that’s a fair point. I don’t think DD did himself any favours by positively revelling in his association with such people in yesterday’s DT interview. I remember Forth put out even Sir George Young by scuppering a private member’s bill which would have required the regulation of private mini-cab drivers (ie for things such as previous convictions for s*x offences, not a bad idea when some r*pists have gained employment as mini-cab drivers and r*ped female passengers). Conway, meanwhile, expressed his pleasure (’I'm so pleased’) at Sir James Goldsmith’s death from pancreatic cancer in an interview for Jeremy Paxman’s ‘The Political Animal’. Even if the Referendum Party cost him his first seat in 97, such glee in an adversary’s painful death seems a bit extreme.
124.”Conway, meanwhile, expressed his pleasure (’I’m so pleased’) at Sir James Goldsmith’s death from pancreatic cancer in an interview for Jeremy Paxman’s ‘The Political Animal’. Even if the Referendum Party cost him his first seat in 97, such glee in an adversary’s painful death seems a bit extreme”
After reading this, I agree with Sophia concerning her opinion about Conway.
Re. 123, yes, the only thing in recent years that’s made him seem half-human is his antics with the students after the QT appearance. on TV (with the exception of his half-reasonable performance on May 5th) he just comes across as either sanctimonious, supercilious, smug, or both.
As for the handwritten letter, these things do make a difference. I remember a neighbour of mine voting Liberal Democrat in the 03 local elections when he was disgusted to get what George Brown would call ‘a complete ignoral’ from IDS when he wrote to him re. animal v*visection.
124 - Exactly. I detested James Goldsmith too, but politics has to stop somewhere and simple regard for the humanity of someone else has to begin. People who can’t sort that out for themselves simply don’t have the judgment required for high political office.
125. Just in case of interest Sir Jams was not the most Pleasant of individuals to put it kindly. Once sued the Editor of Private for Criminal Libel, ie didn’t just want Damages , he wanted to put the Guy in Jail! A very bad idea to Cross That Man.
OT: could a Member of the House of Lords step down?
Re. 125, yes, and what’s more, Conway said he was so pleased after saying that he’d heard that pancreatic cancer was one of the most painful forms of cancer.
It’s on a par with the Tory MPs who were seen (but, sadly, not named and shamed) by one Ulster Unionist MP smirking and giggling behind the Speaker’s Chair on the day of John Smith’s death.
Or, indeed, George W Bush mimicking a woman he sent to the electric chair (’Please don’t kill me’), which disgusted even the right-wing journalist who was interviewing him at the time.
128 - no, he wasn’t. However, pancreatic cancer is an extremely painful way to die, and it would probably be better for his enemies to rise above gloating over it.
131 - Indeed. If Conway thought Goldsmith was getting his comeuppance, it would have been wise to have kept such thinking to himself and not making a meal of it for the media.
“It’s on a par with the Tory MPs who were seen (but, sadly, not named and shamed) by one Ulster Unionist MP smirking and giggling behind the Speaker’s Chair on the day of John Smith’s death.”
Hopefully they all had near-safe seats which they lost in 1997 only because of the magnitude of Blair’s landslide.
“”I pick very spiky friends - Alan Clark, Alastair Campbell, Derek Conway”
Alan Clark was of course very good friend with Jimmy Goldsmith. Its all very clique isn’t it.
134 - Sophia - was not Alan Clark also a friend of that monstrous man, John Aspinall?
I think he was - and Aspinall was Goldsmith’s right-hand man in the RP wasn’t he?
133 - To be fair, BV - the tendency toward that sort of pettiness can come from all quarters of the House. Michael Colvin was a good friend of mine, and as you will recall he perished along with his wife in a House fire that opened up the seat of Romsey which your party then went on to win. I distinctly remember a lot of nastiness about that coming from the Liberal Democrats during that campaign, which I thought was in very poor taste and judgement considering the tragic way Michael had died. This is why I found the Lib Dem ’sympathy’ line vis a vis Patsy Calton and Cheadle recently so difficult to swallow. Ah well….water under the thingy now, you know but I felt the need to get it off my chest.
135 + 136 - Yes he was. John Aspinall paid the fees for Neil Hamilton’s failed case against Fayed. And with great irony John Aspinall is the uncle of the present Tatton MP…
See, as I said, its all very cliquey!
137 - I don’t know the detail of that campaign Alastair, but any of that sort of behaviour is to be condemned.
134 - DD was Clark’s first choice for leader in 1990: fairly absurdly given Davis’s junior status at that time. Clearly the “macho man” thing charms some!
70 , Peter . British social Consevatives - what do they actually want ? Are they going to adopt the mantle of the American Republican right ? Or is there a peculiarly British model and what is it ?
Do you want to roll back abortion to the back streets ?
Is homosexuality to be re-criminalized or are gays just to be treated as second class citizens ?
Is the complete primacy of marriage to be enshrined in law ?
Is freedom of expression and speech to be li