Would choosing Clarke be blowing smoke into the eyes of the membership?
July 21st, 2005
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Can the veteran Europhile make it in a party of Europhobes?
To many of his supporters Ken Clarke’s greatest strength is that like on the EU, or his link with a tobacco company the former Chancellor has never been prepared to tone down his positions in order win political popularity. What a contrast, they say, with Tony Blair and New Labour.
On the face of it the moves to give a bigger role to Tory MPs in the leadership selection process should give a boost the man who was roundly turned down by the party membership in the 2001 ballot that saw IDS get elected. In the betting his price has tightened a touch but the implied probability that this represents is still less than 5%.
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For even if the party at large does accept the rule changes Clarke still has a mountain to climb.
His views on the EU remained solid during his previous leadership bids and clearly will not be compromised to help his current campaign. In a party that has become so opposed to the EU it is hard to envisage how someone with Ken Clarke’s views could make it whatever the process.
Europe, as we saw in the reaction of Tories to Edward Heath’s death, is such a deep issue issue that to outsiders it seems to have become more important than regaining power. We have no reason to doubt the hostility contained in the stream of postings from Tory activists on the site in the past weeks and from these it’s clear that Ken Clarke does not stand an earthly.
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Tory MPs are not going to seize the decision-making process from the membership at large only to foist on them a leader who appears to be so unacceptable to them.
From a non-Tory perspective the attitude to Ken Clarke seems to be some sort of death wish. He is the one contender who has the potential to bring old supporters back and attract in new groups. His strength of character and resolution in sticking to unpopular positions make him a good match for both Tony Blair and for Gordon Brown - if and when the Chancellor does get the top job.
MY BETTING. A couple on months ago I had a spread-bet on Ken Clarke with Binary Bet but got out at a big profit after seeing how Tories on the site viewed his chances. Now I’ve a BUY spread on David Cameron and a SELL one on David Davis which I’m looking to cash in at a profit as sentiment changes on the leading contenders. In this way you can make money on the contest even before the decision has been made.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
From today’s Guardian:
“Most of the 31 seats the Tories gained in the May election changed hands because Labour voters switched to the Liberal Democrats, not because they embraced the Conservatives, said Nicholas Boles, the director of C-Change.”…..
“Launching the report, the former Tory health secretary Stephen Dorrell MP said unless the party reached out to new supporters it could even lose seats.
“We spend far too much of our time focusing on the 32% or 33% who have supported us through thin and thinner. We should be focusing on the extra 10%,” he said.
The report, based on analysis by Andrew Cooper of the Populus polling company, shows that between 1992 and 2005 the party’s support among women fell by 13% to 32%; among the AB upper-middle-class voters by 18% to 36%; and among 25- to 45-year-olds by 16% to 26%.”
Full article: http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,9061,1532894,00.html
Perhaps the Tories who post on this site aren’t typical of the membership as a whole. It does sound as if there are at least some who recognise that “We have a problem”.
Re: Clarke.
Some comments from a “floating voter”:
History: white middle-class male, 28. Voted Labour in ‘01, LD in ‘05. Considered voting Tory - not going to vote Blair again - but then Howard’s “dog whistle campaign” turned me off. Find the LDs basically a good party, but they seemed to tack a bit far left for my tastes - could well be just a tactical move for the last general election, though. We’ll see.
My opinion on Howard: liked him initially, def. an improvement on IDS. But again, his campaign turned me off. Common sense policy on immigration and crime is a good thing, but Howard’s campaign became way too demagogic.
My opinion of David Davis: very skeptical. Emphasis on holding taxes down is good. As is promoting discipline in schools and such. But Davis seems to want to return to the 19th century, culturally. I don’t know this about him for sure, but he seems a bit too much of a Daily Mail-type to me.
David Cameron: I’m intrigued. He’s probably to my right, but seems to understand what century we live in.
Ken Clarke: really like him. Perfect political match in some ways for me. But I don’t expect the Tories to pick him just to satisfy floating voters. But, this said, the Tories need to realize that you have to meet voters like me halfway.
My views:
Europe:
A Eurosceptic, but not a Europhobe. Ie like the idea of Europe as a kind of economic zone and promoter of peace, but not too keen on simply chucking away sovreignty at the behest of a bureaucratic elite. However, turned off by some of the extreme and conspirational rhetoric that seems to emanate fromt he Tory Party right.
Tax: Levels right now are OK. Of course, I’d like to pay less tax, but I think having things like the NHS make it worth it.
Drugs: decriminalize
Law and Order: not adverse to strong anti-yob laws and crackdowns on asocial behavior.
Education: no problem with a tougher line here, either. Get students to pay proper respect. (my girlfriend is a teacher)
Foreign Policy: the US should remain an ally, certainly. But Blair seems to want to become an American. I don’t want that. I think Britain needs to keep a little more distance and assert its independence.
Ben - I agree with each of your views almost entirely, although I’d like to see more efficiency in public services to get tax levels down: throwing money at things is not always the cure, whatever TB says at the dispatch box at PMQs. I have been a member of the Conservative Party since 1986.
My partner has very similar views on all those issues too - perhaps a harder line than me on Europe though - and yet he not only is a Lib Dem, but used to work at Cowley Street.
Perhaps that just shows what a broad church of views a political party can have.
Ben is 28 and according to the Populus poll reported above: “between 1992 and 2005 the party’s support… fell …among 25- to 45-year-olds by 16% to 26%”. If Ben’s views are typical, as I suspect they are, then you can see why.
Unless Ben is Nuala in disguise. - But sounds a bit thoughtful for Nuala and doesn’t even mention Rifkind.
..and as I’ve said before, I don’t think Davis is a done deal. In fact I’ll nail my colours to the mast and (put my money where my mouth is) tell you all that I have layed a substantial amount against Davis on Betfair. I am as yet unsure who will be leader at the end of October, but I am growing more confident by the day that it won’t be the member for Haltemprice and Howden.
Andy:
I should say, my views on public service v. tax is a pragmatic one. Of course, I’d like to pay as little tax as possible with as many free, efficiently provided services as well. Of course this isn’t possible. To put it another way, the debates about economic management that are ideological are completely over my head. We have a market economy: its the best option out there. Its not perfect, but I like it well enough. But arguing about whether or not we should have a flat tax or whether we should renationalize “x” industry is beside the point. The question should be: does it work? does it provide the greatest good for the greatest number?
By election fans:
Today’s votes.
Cotswold/Kempsford-Lechlade Ind
Oxford/Northfield Brook Lab
Cambridge/Coleridge Lab
Carrick/Trescobeas LibDem
Westminster/Harrow Road Lab
Castle Morpeth/Pegswood Lab
Castle Morpeth/Ponteland East LibDem
and there’s one next Tuesday, 26th July
East Hampshire/Whitehill Hogsmoor LibDem
I should add:
For Tory Party members, nominating someone to placate my wish list isn’t what I think you should do. But also be conscious that I doubt my views are much outside the mainstream people in this country under 40 - on some issues, the mainstream might even be to my left (while admittedly, its probably to might right elsewhere).
My bet is that if you send up another Daily Mail type, you’re going to end up with another 32 percent in the GE, barring some kind of economic catastrophe.
To me, it seems that are still mesmerized by what Margaret Thatcher achieved: but Thatcher was a transformational politican who was the product of a very specific set of economic and social circumstances. In this way, I think the current Tory Party membership is very much like the Labour Party was 20 years ago, in that at that time, it couldn’t accept that the social and economic conditions of 1945 didn’t exist anymore.
I voted for Clarke last time albeit through gritted teeth. I like the guy, I have met him several times, and he is very personable, a bit of a character and has good track history. However the Europe stumbling block is there - if he could have said that he would settle for the settled will of the Party, which is far more in tune with the average voter than his line, he would have walked that election. Unfortunately he didn’t and, as they say, the rest is history.
Whether his desire to be Prime Minister is strong enough for him to lay that on the table this time: only time will tell.
Apologies for the poor grammar. My old English teacher would be turning in his grave (assuming he’s in one) if he had seen “settle” and “settled” in the same sentence.
But there again, I’m an accountant so English Language wasn’t my forte.
And as for the use of two clichés in one post….
Icarus @ 1
Perhaps the Tories who post on this site aren’t typical of the membership as a whole. It does sound as if there are at least some who recognise that “We have a problem”.
Comment by Icarus — 21/7/2005 @ 6:41 am
As there are some Labour members with Blair, as there are LD members with Kennedy.
What makes the minority (in each case) right and the majority wrong ?
The refusal to countenance KC isn’t a death wish, it’s just that there’s no point gaining power just for the sake of it and then continuing along exactly the same lines as New Labour.
The tendency to bang on ceaselessly about it aside, Europe ought to be the Conservative’s strongest suit - it’s one issue where they’re in line with popular opinion, and more so amongst floating voters. Why haven’t they got someone who’s as affable and popular as KC who’s a eurosceptic?
Andy @ 9
Whether his desire to be Prime Minister is strong enough for him to lay that on the table this time: only time will tell.
Comment by Andy — 21/7/2005 @ 7:36 am
I would agree that this is his only chance, but were he to do so wouldn’t it perversely, in light of his previously robust promotion of the EU & Europe be seen to be exactly what it was, a crude say anything / do anything grab for power.
Besides which, if you can be as wrong for as long as he has been on key Constitutional and Economic issues, surely his judgement is demonstrably flawed in any event.
I think that considering most people, who are apolitical and/or a floating voter, believe that a Conservative Party run by either Ken Clarke or David Cameron would make it more likely they vote tory. With that reasoning the party should vote for Cameron. He may not appeal as wide, yet, to the wider public as Clarke, yet people remain open as to what they think of him and his voter appeal, although not as high as Clarke, it means that the party will not be repturing or risk division with the election of Clarke. I also do not believe Cameron is the Ape of the Blair Project. Cameron is no apologist for Conservative values like Blair was for socialism, It is Just that Cameron regonises that the North ,Midlands and Scotland require something more than immigration, we want the hopes, aspirations and freedom. Both Clarke and Cameron can give this. Only Cameron can do it with out spliting the party.
I think that considering most people, who are apolitical and/or a floating voter, believe that a Conservative Party run by either Ken Clarke or David Cameron would make it more likely they vote tory. With that reasoning the party should vote for Cameron. He may not appeal as wide, yet, to the wider public as Clarke, yet people remain open as to what they think of him and his voter appeal, although not as high as Clarke, it means that the party will not be repturing or risk division with the election of Clarke. I also do not believe Cameron is the Ape of the Blair Project. Cameron is no apologist for Conservative values like Blair was for so-ci*-lism, It is Just that Cameron regonises that the North ,Midlands and Scotland require something more than immigration, we want the hopes, aspirations and freedom. Both Clarke and Cameron can give this. Only Cameron can do it with out spliting the party.
9 - “Whether his desire to be Prime Minister is strong enough for him to lay that on the table this time: only time will tell.”
This puzzles me. As I mentioned last night, the pact with Redwood in 1997 seemed to indicate that no price was too high - yet in 2001 he disdained pretty much all compromise.
I note that if you look at the link to this thread, the title is “could-a-party-leader-be-a-smoker”. In our party it’s compulsory!
16 Agree with Cameron over Clarke big time!
He’s still a distant second in appeal to DD is this poster’s opinion however.
Peter Riddell made some interesting points in his column today. A very important point I feel he makes, is that we should be offering something positive, appealing to people’s hopes and aspirations not just “sounding like a spokeperson for the Daily Mail”. I tend to agree. So, which candidate would most inspire postivity?!?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,1053-1702108,00.html
The basic problem with KC is as I said 2 months ago is that he is too old . If all the Conservatives want is a stop gap until the younger contenders get rather more experience then fair enough but although KC would go down well with the floating voters it would give them a problem at the next GE because they would still be thinking - like KC but who am I really going to get as the next PM .
Quick observation:
There is an important distinction, in my mind, between Euroskepticism and Europhobia. The former likes the Continent, France, et al. - we just think the move towards a political/monetary union is unwise - at least not something that should be considered too readily. The Europhobes seem to actively dislike Europe. Look, I think it is a great thing that I have a passport that lets me work in 20 plus countries - thats not something I want to give up, even if I think the Euro - in its current guise - would be a mistake for Britain.
Sophia - you make a good point.
Something I would advise the Tory Party to do vis-a-vis this kind of “narrative” thing is nominate a candidate who is distinctly in tune with the mainstream pulse of British culture. I don’t necessarily mean with regards to a “left right” spectrum, though. What I mean by this is one of the reasons I couldn’t vote for Tony Blair - and probably the New Labour project ever again (I’ll reserve judgement on Gordon Brown, don’t know how much a NuLab true believe he is) is that it has, in my mind, become disconnected from this pulse. In many ways, Blair is more an American politician than anything else. Clearly, his messianism on Iraq was part of this, but this is part of a broader phenomenon. I think any leader or cabal that stays in power for an extended period of time is prone to this, but I think Blair’s temperament makes him even worse.
Ben [2] - very interesting post (note to Our Genial Host - should we have a “post of the week” competition
?) - apart from your views on America, and a resentment that her parents failed to introduce the socialist paradise and she has to live with the consequences, your views are also my 24-y-o daughter’s, and she’s as Labour as your infamous namesake!
I suspect that both Labour and the Conservatives find, as they always have, that younger voters are a ruddy nuisance…
Mike. I know the Tory leadership election is far the most fun and imminent at the moment. But the most important market, a little ahead of the two party leader markets, is the winning party one. I’ve just offered a small bet on the Tories because I think the market underestimates them a little. Any chance of a thread on this?
By the way, why do the bookies perversely offer ‘most seats’ bets rather than what people are really interested in, namely Labour majority, Tory majority, hung parliament, and if you must, any other outcome? We pundits don’t ask whether Labour will get more seats than the Tories next time.
If David Davis wins it’s going to be like 2001 all over again, in that the party will have chosen the person it likes rather than the candidate most likely to make people actually want to vote Conservative.
I think some people need to be reminded that the “best” leader is the one who gathers the most votes, not the one most in tune with the readers of the Daily Mail.
When is Lembit Öpik going to be removed from the banner at the top of heavy weight politicans?
Whilst Boris is there Lebit should stay!
You’ll be sorry if a meteor lands on your head.
I agree with all of Andy’s points. The dilema for the Party must be to elect someone who will keep the current ‘core’ on board, and the activists enthused - one problem the Party faced from mid way in the 92-97 Parliament was so many active members just refused to work for the Party any more. In my view KC would cause this to happen again. BUT we must have someone capable to reaching out to that other 10%, and more importantly the younger voters and women. I did some canvassing in 2001 and found that the 30+ homeowners were not particularly keen on NuLab, but not willing to come ‘back’ to the Conservatives. At this stage in the game it doesnt matter if the person is not well known or lacks strong experience, they have time to grow into the role, but they must be CAPABLE of reaching out - AND they must not moralise about how we should live our lives. The ‘traditional family’ is not something to bang on about. I winched when we talked about hard working families last time - hard working people fine. I just dont see DD as someone people would warm to, Fox seems ‘normal’ enough to me, and Cameron also. But the perso must be able to connect in the Midlands, North and Scotland if we are to have a cat in h..l’s chance next time.
26 & 27 Boris & Lembit should be seen as “wild cards” and wild in more than one way.
19. KC is young enough just! To do one full term at least.
16. I suspect the difference maybe in 1997, he knew the mps might be open to compromise and persuasion, whereas the mermbership were likely to reject him in his past performance even if he joined the bruges group. Already his “talk” of a more “collegiate” Shadow Cabinet hints at Compromise and willingness not to go against the grain of the party by imposing his Will. I suspecvt he’ll be closer to his 1997 realism than 2001 provocatism.
Ps Were Paddy and Steel Smokers?
15. If Clarke were to lead he would havbe to convince middle ground sceptics he wouldn’t do that by compromising. Therefore a Clarke Leadership wouldn’t split as it wouldn’t happen in the first place if he remained provocative and uncompromising.
9. Spot on. He must know this is absolutely his last chance.
Ms smithson, tssk “europhobe”, eurosceptic if you please sounds like nu labh propaganda to me. re the membership mr smithson almost 40% voed for him last time even when see my reply in this post to 16 he was at his most intransigent. i’m not pretending a majority love him, but given his age many maybe prepared tp at least tolerate at least for a short while him if he reaches out. those who shout loudest hardline anti ken stuff may not reflect majority opinion. don’t forget the majority were eurosceptic even by the major years but weren’t behind the bill cash group. i’m euroscpetic, but if ken is prepared to meet us halfway by reflecting that if even blair with his stratospheric popularity between 1997 and 2001 couldn’t lead us into the euro then he certainly couldn’t, i reckon i may speak for many who are tired of refighting the major wars and are prepared just to grit our teeth and give him a chance, but as i say the proviso is ken has to come halfway as well.
The problem with Clarke isn’t that he would just have to compromise on Europe but he would have to compromise on a whole host of things where he is out of step with either the membership or the parliamentary party - Iraq, ID cards to name just two MAJOR issues. I also wouldn’t be surprised if his support within the Tories is at its lowest among the younger generation (for whom things like BAT do a lot of damage), which if true would be a major worry for a party looking to the future.
In addition for all the polling evidence in his favour (the only real cited evidence in his favour), it should at least be questioned whether this isn’t in large part due to the perception of he being the “anti-Tory candidate” - there are many within the Labour party who express scepticism that Brown would really, despite the polling evidence, perform as well as Blair electorally yet seem to take at face value the evidence about Clarke.
[30] Yes Paddy used to smoke a lot, Steely gave up, CK also- with some lapses…
I’ve nailed my colours to the mast about Ken previously ie he’s the type of Tory that would attract me and the other lost millions to look at the Tories again . Ken is a political heavyweight , has excellent name recognition , is popular with the electorate and will give TB & GB a run for our money . What are the Tories waiting for , a gold embossed invitation from the punters ??
Stop obssessing about Europe , it’s way down the list of the voters concerns , is now sidelined by the Non votes and TB’s new Euro line and the voters will always put public services and the economy ahead of Europe . Yes they’ll vote for the Tories and UKIP/Veritas at Euro elections and go back to Nulab at the GE , have you worked it out yet ?? To misqoute the Klingon in the Scottish vernacular :
“No Ken no chance , do ye ken bonny lads and lassies .. do ye ken ?”
31.”there are many within the Labour party who express scepticism that Brown would really, despite the polling evidence, perform as well as Blair electorally ”
Blairites: “Brown will poll bad”
Brownites: “Brown will poll better than Blair”
Campaign Group: “Everybody is bad, who cares if we’ll poll well or not. Opposition is bad afterall”
From jeffh (28) “….one problem the Party faced from mid way in the 92-97 Parliament was so many active members just refused to work for the Party any more. In my view KC would cause this to happen again. ”
Brilliant! Keep alternating your leader to discourage a different wing of the party alternately.
I take it back about Lembit as I want Boris to stay (I heart Boris).
1.”“Most of the 31 seats the Tories gained in the May election changed hands because Labour voters switched to the Liberal Democrats, not because they embraced the Conservatives, said Nicholas Boles, the director of C-Change.”…..”
If every candidates will poll like Nik Boles, the tories will disappear. Wasn’t he the director of “Policy Exchange”? Did he change thinktank?
“Ken’s secondary employment carding wool through his teeth had not been declared to the Parliamentary Standards Committee.”
31. Iraq is gone. Rifkind opposed it as well, but and i presume Ken is of the same opinion now we’re there we have to win. Unless Ken is advocating a Galloway withdrawal he’ll be fine on that score.
Re ID Cards, i think you overplay the importance of an issue that looks increasingly likely like it might be jettsoned by the Govt anyway. Anyway Kc wasn’t so fanatic about it, he voted for it was he? paris is worth a mass.
i think it clear he has for more of the common touch thsam brown and thus would be the greater asset.
a crucial point overlooked by all when they joke about his appeal to anti tory voters, even if he can’t bring those people across if as i suspect he can draw some of the sting in anti tory dislike he will impact heavily the willing ness to vote tactically against them thaty proved yet again so deadly in cheadle.
Sophia spells out the Tory dilema perfectly; “…. offering something positive, appealing to people’s hopes and aspirations not just “sounding like a spokeperson for the Daily Mail”.
Spokespeople for the Daily Mail ARE exactly what Conservative voters are. What the party seems to want to do is construct a wooden horse to disguise yourselves sufficiently to get elected.
I have nothing against the cynicism but a lot against the practicalities. Dressing up in other peoples clothes won’t be enough. You’ll have to let all the Daily Mail readers and the paper itself into the secret. And no dog whistle is that subtle!
roger - what rubbish. I am a Conservative voter and I am not, by any stretch of the imagination, a spokesman for the Daily Mail.
Good to see your unhealthy obsession with the Conservative Party is alive and well though.
41 - Andy, you must be a dangerous liberal then. Perhaps we’ll make a Liberal of you yet
33 - do I take it that were the unlikely to happen, you’d be up on the streets of Cotgrave wearing out the shoeleather in the Blue cause?
41. Alan Duncan thinks that the majority of tories members are rural old man.
33.”Yes they’ll vote for the Tories and UKIP/Veritas at Euro elections ”
why are you so sure that Veritas will be alive to contest the next Euro Elections?
I’m sorry Andy but it’s the same problem Labour had in ‘83. Michael Foot WAS the face of the Labour party and he represented their core. It took 13 years to steer the party into a different orbit. And it required the complete collapse of the Tory party. What you have now is a very hard nosed party in the mould of Michael Howard/Margaret Thatcher. Most of the ‘One nation’ Tories have now found homes with the Lib Dems and New Lab……
NEWSFLASH:
PC Jack Warner makes a statement on his identity:
“Its a fair cop guv - all this Scottish Peerage stuff is but a humble hobby of mine. As you can see, the day job involves being chief filing clerk at Ware Police Station. You don’t know how tickly that large filing cabinet in the corner can be, y’know. Evenin’ all!”
http://www.museum.tv/archives/etv/D/htmlD/dixonofdock/dixondockIMAGE/dixonofdock.jpg
Jack Warner is 113 3/4.
44 , Andrea . Even if they only had two members Veritas would contest the Euro elections , mind you politically Veritas are as much use as a one legged man in an arse kicking contest.
Yuk:
Contract cleaners manning picket lines outside entrances to the Palace of Westminster were unanimous when asked by The Times to name the most disagreeable of their duties.
A collective shudder passed along the picket line. Their least favourite task, they agreed, was cleaning the lavatories in the House of Lords.
“Some days they are really nasty,” said Evrard Ouala, 27, from North London, who works a 60-hour week to earn £470. “Especially with the older people who are there in the Lords,” chimed in Nestor Barona, 23, from South London.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1702250,00.html
47- We should ask for a new betting market: “will Veritas contest the 2009 euro elections?”
My question for non-Conservatives who support Clarke as leader is this:
Do you support him because you think he would make an able and effective Prime Minister, or do you support him because his views are more in tune with your own than any other Conservative leadership contender?
48 - you would have thought there were ample opportunities to supplement their incomes with blackmail. But it still might not compensate for seeing things no one should have to.
46 , Tabman . OK son come along quietly …. your days of bar chart deception and illicit quiche peddling are over m’lad . It’s a five stretch for you sunny Jim …..
http://www.whirlgig-tv.co.uk/tv/adults/dixon/dixon.htm
Sean. The second option obviously. But what non-Conservatives are being asked is ‘what will persuade you and those of your ilk to vote Tory’.
52 - I’m presuming, Jack, that you also took a stand against that pernicious and evil substance Cake?
….and the last election would have been the ideal start. For a variety of reasons (most being Iraq) a lot of people would not vote for a party led by TB. There is NO DOUBT in my opinion that quite a number of these would have voted for a Conservative party led by KC. If nothing else it would have made the anti-Tory tactical voters less strident.
50 - Yes to both of those , Sean , but unfortunately it is an election too late for him .
“Most of the 31 seats the Tories gained in the May election changed hands because Labour voters switched to the Liberal Democrats,”
A point which is true but irrelevant. It’s the reverse of saying “if UKIP hadn’t stood , the Conservatives would have won another 20 seats.” The point about First Past the Post is that you win if you get more votes than your main rival, and you don’t if you don’t.
I don’t agree that it’s too late. He’s the only one who can change the look of ‘the brand’ which is what the Conservatives have to do right now. Any attempt to build for the future can’t happen until this is done.
57. but if the tories won’t gain new voters, they will never win an election again. They couldn’t only wait that Labour voters will switch to the Libdemes, because at that point the Libdems will poll more than them.
57 - “The point about First Past the Post is that you win if you get more votes than your main rival, and you don’t if you don’t. ”
Not true - it didn’t work that way for Heath in 1974, a point he was in tears about in a documentary. Those that live by the sword …
54 , Tabman . Absolutely , I see your Swedish LibDem cousins are upto no good !
http://www.thelocal.se/article.php?ID=569&date=20041031
I mean in any one constituency.
Having looked at the C-Change news story, if, as they claim, they want a Conservative party that is more “representative” of Britain, it must surely be a good thing if the party’s vote share is quite similar across the different social classes, rather than being skewed towards one particular social class .
More MPs endorse Cameron in today’s telegraph.
33 Jack W
Don’t ye mean ” Vote Ken, no Party “
55 On what do you base your opinion ?
64 , Tory Boy . ” .. Don’t ye mean Vote Ken, no Party ”
Absolutely not ! Ken is a great party animal , although he only believes in a two party system ….. one in the evening and one later that night !!
25 - Andrew P
”…some people need to be reminded that the “best” leader is the one who gathers the most votes, not the one most in tune with the readers of the Daily Mail. “
Back in 2001, I seem to remember that the Daily Mail actually endorsed Clark
Or re-endorse in the case of Letwin and Luff. Having said that, as mentioned by others, Richard Benyon (who was also a signatory to the letter), is the type of positive candidate (MP as well?) that they should be looking for.
66. 2 party system: Labour (during the day) and Libdems (at night).
I doubt the chance of Tory victory in 2009 would be advanced by a nearly 70 year old highly paid tobacconist that has actively sold fags to the third world. See the poster: Dealer in Death wants NHS budgets slashed! Are You dying as quickly as they’re dying?
And you think that will appeal to floating voters?
The very fact that he took that job shows not that KC is tough and determined but that he is insensitive to current social trends or has an excess of cupidity or both. Or probably knows he can never be leader so he might as well take the money for a comfortable life as a member of the best club in the world ( cue J Loussier and the Air on a G string as KEn puffs contentedly on his cheroot).
68- Sophia, Richard Benyon won Newbury from the Libdems-
And I thin Paul Dacre has made clear that he would support Kenneth Clarke again were he to run.
68.Quite Newbury was one of the few uplifting moments of the night along with Putney. By the By which of the new intake have rallied to Davis’s flag yet, especially among the mp’s who actually gained other parties seats, is benyon a signficant straw to the way the wind is blowing amongst the new intake?
Of the new intake, Nadine Dorries and Shailesh Vara have so far committed to David Davis.
50 - “My question for non-Conservatives who support Clarke as leader is this:
Do you support him because you think he would make an able and effective Prime Minister, or do you support him because his views are more in tune with your own than any other Conservative leadership contender? ”
As an occasional conservative voter, my response to this question is yes and yes!
If he becomes leader I hope he clears out all the “bastards”.
Now back to the Ashes.
KC would be a disaster for many reasons. Europe and his age we all know about but there are other reasons.
Firstly he hardly covered himself with glory at Education or Health. it was widely reported that he was disliked with a passion by teachers and refered to paramedics as being on par with taxi drivers. If we are to regain power, then education and health are issues we need to have radical and proactive policies on.
He says he’s fed up being in opposition. Well he hasn’t helped the situation by refusing to serve in a shadow cabinet and instead flogging fags in the third world.
“If he becomes leader I hope he clears out all the “bastards”.”
Leading a rump, then.
70 Blue2Win.
Firstly re Ken on a platform with Blair. Didn’t Maggie do something similar with Harold Wilson in 1975?
Secondly re the Tobacco who cares? Did Blair traking a large and spectacularly ill timed donation from Berine Ecclestone create an impact? Which do you think was worse?
As it happens i favour Cameron, but i could live with Ken. You seem to show a depressing desire to refight the Major Wars see my Post at 30.
Think about it KC’s age means you wouldn’t have to tolerate him long anyway. Just long enough to win again.
70 , Blue2win .You miss the point about Ken . It’s partly his flaws that the public like - the cigar smoking , tell it as it is , shambling Oxfam taylored fedora wearing type of Tory . He’s NOT one of the anonymous Tory men in a dark suit . Do any of the other candidates stand upto Ken in terms of experience , gravitas , personality and voter popularity . No .
70 Blue2Win.
Firstly re Ken on a platform with Blair. Didn’t Maggie do something similar with Harold Wilson in 1975?
Secondly re the Tobacco who cares? Did Blair traking a large and spectacularly ill timed donation from Berine Ecclestone create an impact? Which do you think was worse?
As it happens i favour Cameron, but i could live with Ken. You seem to show a depressing desire to refight the Major Wars see my Post at 30.
Think about it KC’s age means you wouldn’t have to tolerate him long anyway. Just long enough to win again.
74- Philip Davies ( Shipley) and Nick Herbert too.
81 - Thanks Andrea - Of course Nick Herbert and Philip Davies. (I would imagine his name sake David Davies will “come out” for him as well).
I believe DD got about to help quite a few of the new intake in his helicopter.
David Davies said he was supporting his near namesake on radio 4 this morning.
83 Who was paying for that then?
83. Who was paying for that then?
83. Who was paying for that then?
He was dead right on Iraq. He said in the debate before the war when we have a bomb attack in London we will have to ask how far did this policy contribute to it. Questions the Blairites, the Tories and even Charles Kennedy now refuse to ask.
No reason why he cannot remain a critic of Blair’s war. But he would have to represent the party on Europe, not expect the party to shift towards his views.
Although I am a Euro-sceptic and despise Clarke’s BAT role, we need at least one strong voice in parliament heading the main parties who is going to address the issue of terrorism in a sensible way so I would be happy for him to lead the opposition.
74-82. The new candidates selected at the last minute (Nick Herbert and Nadine Dorries) are both DD’s supporters. If he’ll win by 2 votes, he should thank some lucky stars!
85 - Now that is an interesting question is it not. In a way DD could make more headway with new members as he will have a more or less clean slate with them.
If Ken does stand and loses there is also the danger that the public will tune out from the Tories … ” yet another Tory leader we know nothing about and care even less for ”
Sceneario : The economy sails reasonably along , nothing too bad or good , steady but noticable improvements in public services, the time for a change arguement will be met by GB taking over from TB and Labour gains a record fourth elction victory …… Tories look to elect their fifth leader in 12 years ! The Tories reject Ken again in favour of anybody else !
Viscount Thurso elected leader of the Lib Dems ….. hearty cheers from Jack Kinkell of Dock Green .
62 -It would definitely be a bad thing for the Conservatives ( or any party ) if their support was equally spread amongst all voters . Under FPTP a party polling 35% in every constituency would get less than 10 seats .
90 - yes, he does have about a quarter of the parliamentary party for whom the “scheming” charge is not going to be that resonant yet.
92-”Under FPTP a party polling 35% in every constituency would get less than 10 seats . ”
How many MPs were elected with less than 35%?
Julia Goldsworthy won Falmouth with 34.9%.
Any other?
It seems that there’re many more who were elected with a % between 35% and 40%: for ex. Galloway has been elected with 35.9%,Rob Wilson in Reading East with 35.4% Glenda Jackson with 38.3%, Anne Main in St Albans with 37.3%, Stephen Williams in Bristol West with 38.3%.
Interest I am sorry, you are being unrealistic. If the Labour party will be racist and use the vampire slur on Howard how much better a game will they have with KC.
I suspect people ( including myself) like the rumpled, jazz loving, fedora-wearing, suede shoes scuffing, Hamlet-cigar-puffing image but put the reality into a political contest ( and we all fight to win) then KC will be toast, hail-fellow-well-met or not.
So says Humphreys to KC on Today May 2009 :
“You have changed your mind on Europe now you are leader, you are now in tune with the 78% of the UK population who oppose greater integration, are you?
And the extra overseas aid you have promised will be spent on what? More hospitals for the sick and dying who have bought your tobacco products?”
Douglas Hurd said of him, that he is “the kind of politician who will cross a road in order to get into a fight”.
I don’t want a bruiser I want a winner who, as Ben and Andy have eloquently pointed out, is in tune with today but supports Tory principles. You can’t be in favour of devolving power to people and less tax through greater efficiency if you favour the full panoply of the European project including strong central control, high tax and spend and more centralised decision taking. That is why Europe crops up so often in Tory conversations, because the Eu as seen by France and Germany particularly, is anathema to central Tory beliefs. Whereas a free trade area and free movement of people is very much in line with those beliefs. And that is why KC cannot be the leader.
94. I reply to my own post (I need to see a doctor soon….. :/) ), but it seems that in Scotland with the presence of a 4th party it’s easier to be elected with a low % of vote.
Mark, one needs some concentration of support to survive under FPTP. The fact that Southern voters of all classes are more likely to vote Conservative than their Northern counterparts provides that degree of concentration.
My original point was that if Conservative support were very heavily concentrated among AB voters, then the party would be largely preoccupied with the concerns of such voters.
As a young tory, I supported DD for leader until recently, but I have changed my mind to David Cameron. Too many people already hate DD, especially in the media, no matter what his policies are he will will be seen as extreme and “Daily Mail” (which I dont like either by the way) and fail to make progress.
Cameron is a break with the past, has a friendly/presentable image, and speaks well. I also do not believe he is just “blue Labour” as some say.
Rifkind is another link to the past and his appearance and voice are against him (and may be europhile?).
Clarke is totally unsuitable for all the reasons people here have already said, as well as being petulant and egotistical. Also it seems a bit hypocritical to praise Clarke for “His strength of character and resolution in sticking to unpopular positions” then expect the party to change theirs because “to outsiders it [europe] seems to have become more important than regaining power.”
95 , Blue2win . Look at the polls ! Ken is far and away the voters choice . Remember them . If you don’t choose Ken don’t be surprised if the voters don’t choose the Tories …. again !
Jack W Which polls?
99. he’s popular with voters at the moment but then so is Gordon Brown. Once the labour spin machine get hold of Clarke the it could be a different story.
99 - Jack, the problem is that Tory members suffer from a variation of the Groucho Marx paradox (”I wouldn’t want to belong to anything that would have me as a member”).
95&101 Labour will go in with hobnailed boots on whoever wins, sorry but that is a fallacious argument against Ken. Hague still got savaged didn’t he? The other arguments you put forward are plausible, but Ken is no more and no less going to be attacked by Labour than any other Leadership Candidate, whether there is any fire in the smoke they create is irrelevant.
As I posted in the previous thread when Clarke’s ambitions were mentioned resurfacing in the news, I disagree with Clarke but would be prepared to grit my teeth and support him (not, of course, that we humble activists get a say another more). Four years ago, I would have agreed with my fellow Tories and did so, backing IDS. Sadly, it seems as though Clarke is the only contender that has a realistic chance of leading us back to power. I say “sadly”, because I like a lot about DD’s principled stance against Blairite levels of tax-and-spend and ID cards; and am sure that DC will be fantastic with a bit more experience. On the two issue cited - Iraq and ID cards - I was opposed the invasion of Iraq in any case, and if Howard could be weaned away from ID cards, then I have no reason to doubt that Clarke (whose support is pretty lukewarm) would also see reason. Europe is the one jarring issue for me and, from the tone of the posts, many others, but this is a single issue and a rather dead one at that.
We could wait forever for an “ideal” candidate that combines the right policy positions with the ability to reach out to floating voters like Jack W, Ben and others. There is no candidate in the race. Clarke, or failing that, Cameron, are our best chances to form a government in the near-future.
100 , Blue2win . Every single poll since Major departed the scene in 97 has shown that Ken is the voters choice !!
101 , Woody . Didn’t stop you having MH as leader !! Ken is the best you have - use him - He might not win you the 09 GE but he’ll put the Tories in the game again and the voters will tune in to you straight away.
Clarke is in favour of ID cards as well. The whole argument is irrelevant anyway as there is no chance of him getting the leadership.
It’s a commonplace in cricket that the captain should make decisions on the basis of what the opposition would least want them to do. I can honestly say as a Labour Party member that the candidate I do not want the Tories to choose is Ken Clarke (as in 97 -when I could scarce believe it - and in 01) - and I’m feeling pretty confident now that KC will not be chosen - that and 4 Austrialian wickets down before lunch … it’s a great day!
105. MH was a desperation move as the MP’s paniced. If he didn’t become leader when he did and ran for it now, he wouldn’t stand a chance.
5 wickets now.
104. I’m almost wholly with you re Ken although Cameron is still just my first choice i do harbour the doubts you mention re experience. As for Ken for me his age balances out the less likeable aspects, he won’t be there for anything like as long as say Blair.
Agree with DD.
AS for ID cards, ken is not obessed he didn’t even show for the debate let alone the vote.
Grit our teeth if it’s Ken, but only he and Cameron are winners on TV. People can bang on re doorknockers and yes it’s vital but overweighing everything else is TV, that is how millions of voters first “meet” you, all other preception stem from that. Anyone outside those two and we’re stuffed, as surely as we were from the moment ids stood outside central office in 2001.
It is funny (or not) that we end up 2003 with a leader who came last in the 1997 leadership contest, and we will probably end up with a leader who came last in the 2001 leadership elections. The words barrel and scrapping comes to mind.
No it was sensible they needed someone they couyld agree on without a contest, and someone who if not an attractive candidate at least was not a joke like ids. mh did exactly the job he wasked to do, stabilise the situation on the ship, start pumping out water improvee organisation and get the donors back he did. i sometimes think even today kinnochio for all his faults doesn’t get the credit he deserves from labour supportwers after the calamity of 83 for keeping the party alive never mind just laying the foundations for blair. i hope tories don’t make the same mistake with howard, when he arrived there was a real chance of the libs overtaking them if nothing else he put that to bed at least for nows.
Kinnock was leader for almost nine hard years - I know of no serious Labour Party activist who reagrds him as less than an absolute hero. Incidentally, I remember his speech on the eve of the 83 election as the most inspiring I have ever heard.
“the ability to reach out to floating voters like Jack W,” -another alex (104)
Jack W - doesnt float - all those venison pasties and fine claret…
But sounds as if we have shot ourselves in the foot and convinced the Tory party here (has anyone seen Rik?)to go for Ken.
Rik hasn’t been back since his unfortunate comments?
No volume, but Clarkes price has halved on Betfair to 11/1
OK - take back my comment at 107 - Davis is the man we fear!
113 - “I remember his speech on the eve of the 83 election as the most inspiring I have ever heard.”
I wish I could remember who, but someone made a speech on health during this campaign which alluded strongly to “I warn you not to grow old” from Kinnock’s 1983 speech. It may even have been a Tory.
Ken has as much chance of becoming Tory leader as his mayoral namesake. If he becomes Tory leader I’ll eat my Jack-W-fan-club-members-only-limited-edition venison flavoured hat.
Take a look at Tessa Jowells jacket on 508. Talk about garish
120. Without wanting to offend anyone, I’ve to confess that I sometimes find British women’s fashion taste pretty bad. Every year I’m appaled of what the poor female judge at Wimbledon are wearing. Some women seem stuck in the 80’s.
Cameron is completely untested. If he became leader the media would actually start testing him and it could go either way. Hague seemed to do well on television, had no baggage and was a bright new start and look what happened. When Bremner et al start with their Cameron impressions it will just confirm us as an elitest party.
Clarke has missed his time. His age and cigarette selling make him a complete not starter. I sure he appeals to you confirmed LD’s, we all know you like an europhile boozer ! We don’t need to convert you lot but we need to appeal to the missing 10%.
DD is the only answer - his narrative and normality will get these people we have lost to consider us again as the party of opportunity.
Now back to the more important contest, the cricket - Come on England !
121 - Ah but what the judges and spectators at Wimbledon Tennis wear is not representative of British women as whole. The spectators at Wimbledon tennis tend to be, how shall I put this, more seasoned individuals of a rather middle class hue (think Laura Ashley flowery skirts). I can assure you that what the average British “lady” wears in the high street is totally different. Whether that is better or worse is certainly not for me to judge
Peter Riddell in today’s Times is right to say that the Conservatives must offer hope to the voters, rather than negativity. He is right to say that we are seen as being well to the right of the electorate, but misses the point that in terms of what we offering, we are very centrist.
The challenge is to be seen as centrist, while in fact, being well to the right of centre. The model here is Ronald Reagan. The best Conservative leadership contender therefore, is the one who is most like Ronald Reagan. Which is he (or she?)
“DD is the only answer - his narrative and normality”
“If you’re hunting big game, you must make sure you kill with the first shot.”
Its that kind of normality I love - fantastic! Which reminds me, Ricky Gervais’ new comedy, Extras is on tonight.
75 It will leave him pretty lonely - we’re the majority !
114 , Icarus . ” ..Jack W doesn’t float …”
http://www.audioscrobbler.com/music/Toto/-/The+Floating+Fat+Man+%28TheBaron%29
http://www.elfwood.lysator.liu.se/fanq/l/e/lenoretowne4/mad_periott.jpg.html
119 , Melv . Re hat eating …. be careful what you wish for , this might be you :
http://www.brazoslink.net/~jon/Qatar?Doha_2004-04pages/page_22.html
122. DD is a great guy but he just doesn’t shine on TV. His flat vowels, deadpan tone, the way he so often doesn’t look the viewer in the face. The Guy just isn’t a natural the way KC & DC are, although maybe he could learn. It hurts because like 104 i like DD, but in my heart i just know he can’t win. The Party can’t trade on sentiment kc or dc if they want any chance at all.
Rumours of more bombs in London, right now. Sirens on my street - Tottenham Court Road. could just be rumours.
Apparently, 3 tube stations have been evacuated.
Warren St., The Oval and Sheperds Bush are the stations.
124. Peter Riddell is absolutly right. People know what he seem to be against but where are the radical proactive policies.
There seem to have been a few evacuations recently where no threat was eventually found. Let’s hope this is another false alarm.
133 - They reported smoke from those stations, at least thats what Anna is telling us
A dozen police cars racinf up tottenham court road two minutes ago. Ambulances. Fire engines. Smoke reported to be coming out of Tube Station. Pray this is a false alarm!
133 - I agree BV, although supposedly smoke has been seen coming from one.
http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-1189833,00.html
I am afraid I spoke too soon. Hard to assess the seriousness from the first reports though - though on the face of it this is very minor, early accounts are often confused.
Its looks like nobody is injured (fingers crossed). I have got to make my way across London to Paddington to catch a train which should be fun.
mobile networks down.
102 No Tabman - quite the reverse.
We want to be a members of a club where the rules,regulations, principles and beliefs accord with our own values.
Also where we are allowed (discuss!) to elect a leader that represents those same views and beliefs and promotes them to the best of their ability to the outside world.
If people believe, trust in and vote for us great.
If they don’t, so be it. That’s politics.
Others (Nulab & LD’s) will do and say anything to attain power because they have no guiding beliefs other than being in power.
That’s the difference between us, long may it remain so.
Sky-Police report Tube incidents, on all News Media now looks less and less like a false alarm. i live in london but not there now. bastards! i hope, just hope no one has been killed.
Think this may just be panic - false alarm. Smoke reports denied. God i hope so!
roads closed all over West End. Incident on bus on Hackney Road. F**k F**K F**K
I hope so too. You do wonder about three simultaneous incidents though.
Reuters, Nail Bomb at Warren Street shit!1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mobile networks are not down here — I just called from Mayfair to Angel no problems.
That’s it. Time to get f**king serious. F**k this f**cking shit. This is three hundred yards from my flat AGAIN. I am now officially scared.
147 You at Warren Street? Take Care!
Reports unconmfirmed shots fired in one of these things.
124 - I expect there are several potential leaders of the Conservative Party who are senile with Alzheimers but I cannot see them attracting many votes in this country .
140 - You are wishing for the purity of permanent opposition as a minor party .
“The man who was holding the rucksack looked extremely dismayed.”
he was lucky to get off that tube carriage alive it was a failed suicide bombing - not because of the bomb but because of his fellow tube passengers
Mobiles down here (Liverpool St).
My girlfriend’s mobile OK at UCL (nr Tott Ct Road)
149.No offence but don’t think anyone gives a damn on that right now!
150. Did they Get him?
Don’t understand. He had a rucksack that exploded? did he shake his coke can too much? No more reports of this bus bomb/nail bomb…. fingers x’d we are just being jumpy.