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How Davis’s challengers are shaping up

July 22nd, 2005


Davis’s challengers – RED David Cameron: BLUE Ken Clarke: BLACK Liam Fox

    Clarke and Fox barely make an impact

The moves to get the Liam Fox and Ken Clarke bandwagons moving in the Tory leadership contest have so far failed to impress the punters who are continuing to rate David Cameron as the man most likely to take on David Davis.

Our latest chart shows the implied probablility of the three main challengers to Davis in the Tory leadership contenders and is based on the best betting prices. This is how gamblers are rating the chances.

    Although Liam Fox and Ken Clarke have seen a little movement in their direction the Shadow Education Secretary, David Cameron, has now moved to above 20% for the first time in the race and his position looks as though it is firming up.

A lot is going to depend on how the contenders do at the party conference in nine weeks time and this, to a certain extent, will be affected by media coverage which we think will favour Cameron. The Daily Telegraph could be very important and there have been signs that it is softening it previous pro-Davis position.

The normal rule for Tory leadership contests, of which there have been quite a few in recent years, is that the early favourite does not do it. Betting against David Davis seems a reasonable strategy and you can do this by LAYING him with Betfair or SELLING him on the Binary Bet spread market. Currently the Binary Bet price is more attractive.

Mike Smithson






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