How Davis’s challengers are shaping up
July 22nd, 2005
Davis’s challengers - RED David Cameron: BLUE Ken Clarke: BLACK Liam Fox
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Clarke and Fox barely make an impact
The moves to get the Liam Fox and Ken Clarke bandwagons moving in the Tory leadership contest have so far failed to impress the punters who are continuing to rate David Cameron as the man most likely to take on David Davis.
Our latest chart shows the implied probablility of the three main challengers to Davis in the Tory leadership contenders and is based on the best betting prices. This is how gamblers are rating the chances.
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Although Liam Fox and Ken Clarke have seen a little movement in their direction the Shadow Education Secretary, David Cameron, has now moved to above 20% for the first time in the race and his position looks as though it is firming up.
A lot is going to depend on how the contenders do at the party conference in nine weeks time and this, to a certain extent, will be affected by media coverage which we think will favour Cameron. The Daily Telegraph could be very important and there have been signs that it is softening it previous pro-Davis position.
The normal rule for Tory leadership contests, of which there have been quite a few in recent years, is that the early favourite does not do it. Betting against David Davis seems a reasonable strategy and you can do this by LAYING him with Betfair or SELLING him on the Binary Bet spread market. Currently the Binary Bet price is more attractive.
Mike Smithson
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As I have said in my previous posts, cameron is the only candidate that can be selected that would appeal to floating voters in the Midlands, Northwest, Yorks, Scotland and Ulster. Yes that’s right I want the 15,000 votes we used to get in places in Ulster that still vote UU (only the one left.). The only other choice to do this is clarke and he’ll split the party.
Couldn’t agree more with you on Cameron, Stuart. I’m still not convinced that KC would split the party though, 40% of the membership still voted for him in 2001.
It’ll be a long while before we start winning seats in Ulster again but your quite right their are a number of seats their that we could win if the party political system was to become normalised, North Down being the most obvious one.
I look forward to that day max, then i will know we’ve made it. Meanwhile we have to get to this position. You do have a valid point about Clarke, although I still think that his election will lead to a split in the party and a possible sudden drop in the party membership. We need to keep those we’ve got and pick up those we’ve lost
You honestly believe that Cameron would secure votes in the North of the country? What waffle!
Yes - In the kind of middle-class constituencies we used to win in the North of England and Scotland I think DC is considerably more appealing than David Davis. I’m not saying we’re going to start winning seats in Newcastle, Manchester and Liverpool but in places like Bolton West, Bury North, Eastwood, Edinburgh S. etc.
4 - With due apologies to James, whose work this is (and which I have modified slightly):
Dear Elector,
Can it really be four years since last I visited the Northern Wastes?
As I sit in a leather armchair in my Gentleman’s Club on Pall Mall penning these words to you, I muse on how the years have flown by and on how, preoccupied with important affairs of state, I have given barely a thought to your quaint towns and the numerous queer and charming people therein. Even when the demands of high office have eased so as to allow me time to visit your boroughs, matters of personal business have intervened and, alas, commerce has called me away.
But I have never forgotten the words of my mentor, Col. Sir Tufton Bufton. “The people of the North,” he said, “may be curious and wretched souls, but they are of good English stock and the backbone of the Empire. It is our role to be concerned with matters of statecraft. But we must not be dismissive of - although neither must we trouble ourselves unduly with - their petty, dreary, everyday concerns.” How right he was.
A word about my opponents. The Socialist candidate is a modest man of modest abilities. He says he is a teacher but not at one of our great public schools but at a “comprehensive”, a simple factory for tomorrow’s beasts of burden. He is equipped neither intellectually nor morally for a career in public service. As for The Liberal Candidatrix, it is laughable that a mere woman could cope with the pressures and vicissitudes of public life.
No, dear elector, you must re-elect a man of dignity and honour. The type of man who has made this nation what it is today. I am that man.
Yes I do think in seats such as Morecombe, Tyneside, Westmoorland, North Perth, Harrogate, Bury North and South, Bolton west and North east David Cameron could just be the person to capture their votes. These are Gentle middle class areas. Just one correction Max Bolton and Bury are in Greater Manchester.
5 - you can imagine the sort of election adress that might be written (with thanks to James, whose work this is):
Dear Elector in the constituency of Grimupnorth East,
Can it really be four years since last I visited the fair city of Grimupnorth?
As I sit in a leather armchair in my Gentleman’s Club on Pall Mall penning these words to you, I muse on how the years have flown by and on how, preoccupied with important affairs of state, I have given barely a thought to your quaint town and the numerous queer and charming people therein. Even when the demands of high office have eased so as to allow me time to visit the borough, matters of personal business have intervened and, alas, commerce has called me away.
But I have never forgotten the words of my late father, and your former MP, Sir Tufton Bufton. “The people of Grimupnorth,” he said, “may be curious and wretched souls, but they are of good English stock and the backbone of the Empire. It is our role to be concerned with matters of statecraft. But we must not be dismissive of - although neither must we trouble ourselves unduly with - their petty, dreary, everyday concerns.” How right he was.
A word about my opponents. The Socia-list Candidate is a modest man of modest abilities. He says he is a teacher but not at one of our great public schools but at a “comprehensive”, a simple factory for tomorrow’s beasts of burden. He is equipped neither intellectually nor morally for a career in public service. As for The Liberal Candidatrix, it is laughable that a mere woman could cope with the pressures and vicissitudes of public life.
No, dear elector, you must re-elect a man of dignity and honour. The type of man who has made this nation what it is today. I am that man.
6 - Bolton and Bury are in Lancashire! I have no truck with the wreckers of 1974 …
You soft southern shandy drinker, Your views of the north are a disgrace. I think you’ll find many of the Lancastrian towns are very affluant and have given rise to many important people. Not only is Bolton the home of Robert peel but also the torpedo and Black pudding. Bolton and Bury have collectively given you the Spinning Mule, Jenny, Arkwright Crompton, Lord Lever. Winston Churchill was MP for Manchester and Oldham. Sir you have dishonoured the fair North and I demandsatisfaction. Rules will be old Naval rules as the offended party I will choice the destination, my old Ship, HMS Eaglet in Liverpool. You may select the time Dawn or Sunset.
1&2 Men after my own heart, although i think 2 has it right on KC. The only way he would be come Leader would be to reassure others by the offering of a few Olive Branches, that he wouldn’t split the party, were he to remain intransigent enough to split it, he wouldn’t gain the support he needed to win in the first Place. Why have Clarke’s odds not moved if Icarus reported yesterday that his Odds on betfair had halveds?
Anyways Max&Spenketh i think we all agree Clarke&orCameron if there is to be any hope. anyone outside those two and the next election might as well be conceded now.
5 , Max . I’m still in a state of shock at your hasty refusal of my kind offer at Waverley !!
BTW looking at Edinburgh South result at the GE this has all the making of a Lib Dem gain and a big squeeze of the 24% Tory vote . Indeed saving Edinburgh SW , all the Edinburgh seats may fall to the Lib Dems and even the aforementioned SW isn’t totally out of the question , more long term ! I can hear cheering from West Bridgford !
9 - Sir, I demand you retract that. As a former resident of both Salford and Sale, born of Trafford and Pendlebury stock, I am well acquainted with the fine Metropolis of Manchester, which acted as a beacon for Liberalism and Free Trade throguhout the C19th and is doing so again in the C21st. This is the city of Cobden who overturned the Tory Corn Laws once and for all!
Dear tabman
Your right though on Heath’s 74 destruction of Lancashire. i have no time for it i’m a proud lancastrian of cheshire, Yorkshire and scottish aristocratic descendancy. By that record Can I claim to be the local candidate in any of those areas seats, seeing as many people believe we should ape the lib dems techniques
9 , S Penketh . “…. Rules will be old Naval rules ….”
Is that rubbing tummies aft until submission or chucking Spanish oranges on the poop deck ?
Comment by Vice Admiral Jack Tar MacW - 21/10/1805 @ 9.45 am
11 - “my kind offer at Waverley”
Is this some new euphemism for cottaging?
13 - Stuart, if you think about it, we could all claim descent for the constituency of Limpopo Valley South …
13 , s . penketh . “…. Scottish aristocratic descendancy ”
Excellent , another infusion of noble North British blood , I’m waiting for the King over the water to make an appearance !!
Sir Tabman
I demand a retraction it was Bury’s son Sir Peel who retracted the Corn Laws to relieve the Irish. Bury Demands satisfaction, as my gran rededicated the peel tower in the 1970’s I feel your glove slap accross our face more harsly than most
17 - Sir, I will not retract; Peel only relented because of pressure form the anti Corn Law League founded by Cobden. Without that corn would still be 70s a bushel today!
http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/PRanticorn.htm
10 No, we don’t “all” agree !
Relented Tabman, you make it sound easy for Peel?! A titanic struggle that split the Tory Party, and oh bliss for you led to Liberal Dominance for several decades, with no tory majority again for 28 years.
A driven man peel, still since his father always sat him on his knee and told him bob you black dog you will be PM if it kills me how could he be anyting else.
Relented Tabman, you make it sound easy for Peel?! A titanic struggle that split the Tory Party, and oh bliss for you led to Liberal Dominance for several decades, with no tory majority again for 28 years.
A driven man peel, still since his father always sat him on his knee and told him “Bob you black dog you will be Prime Minister if it kills me how could he be anything else”.
Relented Tabman, you make it sound easy for Peel?! A titanic struggle that split the Tory Party, and oh bliss for you led to Liberal Dominance for several decades, with no tory majority again for 28 years.
A driven man peel, still since his father always sat him on his knee and told him “Bob you black dog you will be Prime Minister if it kills me how could he be anything else”.
19. I think you may know i mean’t the three of us TB! your views are decidedly well known. you consider attila the hun to have been a hand wringing liberal.
The impertance of you sir.
Bury wil get satisfaction, next you will be claiming that it wasn’t the tories who abolished slavery like Benn was on question time on Salford, cosh I’ve never heckled before but his slander of the Royal Navy in it’s anti slavery war against Brazil was shocking. Admiral Jack W I hope you will forgive my behaviour in the defence of our honour.
Peel did indeed retract it but would have done it anyway for why would he want to split the tory party, unless it was a point of principle. Peel is the reason thetory party evolved into the party of free trade much like the old Liberals.
Interesting about the Corn Laws. Is there any other instance in the UK of popular action changing government policy? I can only think of the Poll Tax, but I’m sure there are others.
25. Slavery? William Wilberforce and the ant-slavery league?
25. Slavery? William Wilberforce and the anti-slavery league?
25 - its a very interesting point. Since Universal Suffrage, governments have not tended to be able to introduce policies that cause such universal suffering and outrage and apply them for 40 years. That makes the poll tax even more remarkable and, I suppose, shows the levels of hubris prevalent in the Tory party at the time.
1 - Are you exiled down south at the minute. The last thing Tories in the north want is a Blair soundalike with all his management speak. I’m not knocking on doors for yet another leader only to hear, ” Not voting for you because we don’t like him. ” Portillo last night on This Week - Cameron’s background is definitely a disadvantage to him.
If only there was a man of the people candidate, someone from humble origins, who made something of himself through hardwork. Someone who is experienced, who has been a Minister and shadowed one of the top offices of state. If only we could find such a candidate…
27 - Not sure. I’ve read a couple of studies that reckon slavery ended for economic reasons. With the Poll Tax, it’s clear that the scale of non-payment forced the policy change.
29 John T So you are proposing William Jefferson Hague for Tory leader then!
At least he got NuLab right:
There is nothing that the British people can talk about, that this Labour Government doesn’t deride.
Talk about Europe and they call you extreme. Talk about tax and they call you greedy. Talk about crime and they call you reactionary. Talk about asylum and they call you racist. Talk about your nation and they call you Little Englanders.
This Government thinks Britain would be alright if only we had a different people.
I think Britain would be alright, if only we had a different Government.
30. YOu could an people have argued the same re the corn laws that the growing economic and political muscle of the new factory owners angry at having to pay their workfirce artificially high wages due to the inflated artificially corn price were crucial to repeaaal, and were an economic factor. certainly the anti-slavery campaign mass meeting, pamphlets,petitions and lobbying of mps had as much in common with the aanti corn law league as anyones.
28 - Of course, there’s the suffragettes, who I know very little about. Is that another instance?
People aren’t going to vote for DD because he’s from a council estate. Its about policies and what the party stands for. For me neither candidate has set out what they really believe in so we get this sideshow about who went to school where.
My personal view is that the macho image DD has could cause further harm to the party amongst female voters and middle-class voters, without being offset by gains from traditional Labour voters.
32 - Agreed. Perhaps the Poll Tax protest is unique in that the direct action (specifically non-payment) had a direct and immediate economic effect and thus required an urgent solution.
29 - My I propose Josiah Hardwood, famed Northern industrialist? I attach some of his choicer epithets:
Josiah Hardwood : I’d no sooner place my daughter in the hands of a man who didn’t love her as I’d place my john thomas in the hands of a lunatic with a pair of scissors.
Blackadder : Sir. I come as emissary of his highness the Prince of Wales with the most splendid of news. He wants your lovely daughter for his wife.
Josiah Hardwood : [Disgusted] Well his wife can’t have her. It’s outrageous that you should come here with such a suggestion. [Rising angrily]
Josiah Hardwood : Mind sir or I shall take off my belt and by thunder, me trousers will fall down.
31 , blue2win . And sadly for the Tories the electorate got the measure of William Hague in 2001 !
34 - People might vote for DD because he has a normal background. You might think the average voter sits there with all the manifestos and compare policies but I don’t. Do you think we are stuck on 33% because we are getting policy wrong - Cameron had alot to do with formulating policy at the last election but you are backing him.
I think the areas we are getting wrong is more about image and tactics.
34. Too right! The more DD’s supporters bang on about his background the more i suspect they are not confident of arguing him on his personal merits. “All the worlds a stage” said Shakespeare, the Tory Party needs a more convincing actor than David Davis.
38. True Cameron had a big role in the manifesto, but much less in the actual campaign the ordering and prominence given to certain topics was quite different from the campaign, i really worry if DD assuming he wins just thinks it’s case of offering a massive tax cut and waiting for the tide to turn.
34 - The silliest idea about DD is that his military background will benefit him. Noone beyond the Tory hardcore gives a monkeys. IDS RAF history was similarly talked up. IDS though eh? Excellent gaffes.
- Mr Duncan Smith, would it be fair to say you’ve shot yourself in the foot once again?
- Let me say this: the only shooting I’ll be doing is shooting Tony Blair!
Classic IDS.
31 - If only Hague had stuck to his original deal with Howard and we had got them as leaders in the right order.
He got the job too soon - take note Cameron fans !
40 - IIRC IDS was in the Army (and served in NI). His father was a fighter pilot.
S Penketh (130 and (17) A Peel tower was a fortified house or dwelling place normally entered by ladder to the first floor with a vaulted ground floor for the cattle. … - nothing to do with Sir Robert.
As for locals “Can I claim to be the local candidate in any of those areas seats, seeing as many people believe we should ape the lib dems techniques”
After Cheadle I dont think the Conservatives will be playing the local card until they have improved their techniques.
37 I think they got the measure of a poorly organised party in total denial in 2001. Hague had the measure of Blair at almost all PMQs and since resigning as leader Hague’s stock (as well as his bank balance) has risen considerably. As Mrs T said “Everyone should have a Willy” and I wonder if WJH will morph into a mekon vesion of a Whitelaw. He already sounds a bit like the traditional kingmaker.
42 - Quite right, IDS was in the Scots Guards, his dad the RAF. Is that a gaffe of IDS proportions? I’ll be making inappropriate jokes about Charles Kennedy soon
If Guido is to believed 44 Hague has serious doubts, although it may relate to the fact that Davis’s penchant for being seen as trouyble did not originate in IDS’s times. Guido belives Hague is letting his willingness to serve under anyone bar Davis to be widely Known.
If Guido is to believed 44 Hague has serious doubts, although it may relate to the fact that Davis’s penchant for being seen as trouble did not originate in IDS’s times. Guido belives Hague is letting his willingness to serve under anyone bar Davis to be widely Known.
Re 29 I’m in Bury again and working in leigh. I have stated in previous posts that I believe Cameron is not like Blair he is not an apologist for toryism as Blair was for Social@@ism. He argues passionately for small governance and low tax and hopes and dreams. He just does it in calm measured tones. I believe Davies is to much to the right and for an army officer he has not been the most loyal troop.
Re 44 Icarus
you clearly do not know Bury Peel tower was a tower built in Ramsbotton in the 19th century as a means of work for local people. It was later dedicated to the memory of Sir Robert Peel.
Bury again demands satisfaction ICARUS. God that was a good belly shout just like my navy days
48 - I don’t think Howard is thinking that Cameron has been that loyal either now he has started rubishing the election campaign they devised together and policies such as scrapping tuition fees.
After Howard had gone to the trouble of changing the leadership election system for him as well !
Sorry last post Should be RE43 Icarus
I stand corrected, apologies for doubting you.
All this talk of Bury has made me think of food - the best black pudding I have recently eaten came from a butcher in Craven Arms, Shropshire and Petchs (of Pork Pie fame) in Great Ayton, Cleveland do an interesting one baked in a tray
I must admit I haven’t made up my mind between Cameron and Davis.
Cameron may go down better in places like Harrogate. Which do you think would go down better in places like Stockton or Keighley?
Re Sean
Stockton was represented by super Mac so I suppose there not adverse to gentlemen. Still believe he is a good candidate for towns such as worsley too.
For Black puddings Icarus I suggest a trip to Bury Market. Thats right, Bury, fun for the whole famiy, why not try Burrs country park and adventure centre for the more outdoorsie types. Or a trip down memory lane on the east lancs railway to Rawtenstall. Thats right Bury a town that has it all for a perfect family holiday.
I claim the Parachial prize i started with the comments on Norfolk North in the GE campaign
53- Cameron against Brown=hung parliament.
Cameron will go down better in the South, while Brown will go down better in the north.
But then the tories could always make some strange things (a campaign which scares half of the voters, accusing all candidates to rapists or proposing to introduce poll tax again) and losing in the South too.
Fifty. Nonsense Cameron played a key role in the manifesto, but he didn’t cook up the campaign in a closet alone with mh, saatchi now trying hard to claim otherwise and others played a role, anyway what’s Cameron supposed to say??? Everything was Perfect? They lost didn’t they? I think this is overplayed Cameron has certainly not used the sort of virtriolic lamguague of Alan Duncan which has genuinely angered people. The first part of winning again is to be reasonably critical of aspects that didn’t work so well. davis for instance is arguing alongside saatchi re taxes.
AS for changing the Leadership election for him? This is mad. the only thing howard was trying to avoid the nightmare scenario where davis or any other candidate say wins a clear or even overwhelming support of mps only to have the membership vote for someone else, in other words a replay of the ids situation.
52 , Icarus . Dickinson and Morris of Melton Mowbray make a most acceptable and award winning pork pie , now more widely available in supermarkets . I wonder if they buy in venison ?!?!
http://www.porkpie.co.uk
54 - Bury is far too cosmopolitan!
Icarus - next time you’re in Rhos drop into Nino’s cafe opposite the Breakwater
RE Sir Tabman
Did I wrong you in a previous life, why must you insist on insulting the Goood name of Bury
54 - The Roughton Memorial Parochial Trophy is at the engravers as we speak and will be on your mantlepiece by Monday.
57 - can I also suggest the following, very good for when one is forced to eat one’s (hat, that is): http://www.dadshats.com/beavbranpor1.html
59 - Bury also gave us Phil and Gary (not to mention Neville, and their sister who’s name escapes me but was a netball international) Neville. And its North Manchester, where you don’t venture if you know what’s good for you …
Usually work commitments prevent me from looking over the discussion during the day but I’m waiting to see the dentist - and what a lot of clap-trap there is here. The idea that posh people only go down well in the South is complete nonsense. Ex-public-school, posh talking Anthony Blair MA (Oxon) has had no problems in County Durham.
By the same argument David Davis will only go down well amongst single parent families in council estates. People look for more than that from their leader.
I have just started working in York and this part of North Yorkshire a lot more “posh” than large areas of the South. On almost every corner in our city centre there are hat hire shops and you see more “posh” people boarding trains at York station than just about anywhere I know.
62..So why no Tory Mp’s in York then Mike? Even in the good times?
62.” Ex-public-school, posh talking Anthony Blair MA (Oxon) has had no problems in County Durham. ”
I don’t find Blair “posh”. He’s the right mix between being posh and being “the real everyday man”.
64 - Andrea, TB has managed to scuff the polish from his RP; in contrary fashion Messrs Heath, Clarke, Howard (and Ms Thatcher) burnished their regional tones.
62 - Mike. Tony Blair broadened the appeal of Labour by coming from a non-Labour background which helped in middle england. Cameron is what you expect from a Tory so as Portillo says it is a negative. Not really clap-trap - it must be your toothache making you grouchy !
But tabman.
Bury upto 97 returned two tories. Even Radcliffe a dead town killed of by the local council 15 years ago still has a strong vote indeed I have high hopes of having the previlage of winning Radcliffe North. Indeed till 8 years ago Radcliffe North elected nothing else then plummy tories. the last tory won 6 years ago and went oit in 4 years ago she is no councillor for Elton Ward
62 - Mike, what I find remarkable is the way that the ‘grim up north’ stereotype so beutifully, and at great length, satirised by Tabman (does he do any work!) still seems to be so prevalent.
But places like Leeds, Shipley, Selby, Calder Valley, Elmet, Crosby the Wirral and Tynemouth are all fairly prosperous and are unlikely to be hostile to someone who comes across as a bit posh.
56 - If Cameron is elected we get th IDS situation in reverse.
As the conservativehome.com survey shows only 36% of the members polled are considering supporting Cameron, Davis is on 64%.
There would have been no chance at all for Cameron if Howard hadn’t changed the system.
63 - York had a Tory MP until 1992, and the rest of North Yorkshire is still stuffed with them, eg Vale of York, Ryedale, Skipton & Ripon, Richmond, etc.
Counciul by-elections 21/7/07
Cambridge City - Coleridge: Lab 829, Lib Dem 638, C 263, UKIP 42. (June 2004 - Three seats Lab 782, 753, 743, C 512, 511, Lib Dem 490, 477, C 469, Lib Dem 372, Green 340, UKIP 187). Lab hold. Swing 1.6% Lab to Lib Dem.
Carrick District - Trescobeas: Lib Dem 351, Lab 282, C 110. (May 2003 - Two seats Lib Dem 406, 405, Lab 304, 276). Lib Dem hold. Swing 3.7% Lib Dem to Lab.
Castle Morpeth Borough - Pegswood: Lib Dem 417, Lab 242, Green 14. (May 2003 - Two seats Lab 427, 280, C 103, 92). Lib Dem gain from Lab.
Castle Morpeth Borough - Ponteland East: C 468, Lib Dem 312, Green 18. (May 2003 - Two seats Lib Dem 491, C 438, Lib Dem 433, C 373). C gain from Lib Dem. Swing 12.8% Lib Dem to C.
Cotswold District - Kempsford-Lechlade: C 683, Lib Dem 403. (May 2003 - Two seats Ind 600, 537, C 522, 498, Lib Dem 210). C gain from Ind. Swing 1.2% Lib Dem to C.
Oxford City - Northfield Brook: Lab 592, Independent Working Class Association 300, Lib Dem 141, C 31, Green 19. (June 2004 - IWCA 555, Lab 439, C 90, Lib Dem 89, Green 61). Lab hold. Swing 6.6% Lib Dem to Lab.
Walsall Borough - Willenhall South: Lab 862, C 486, Lib Dem 399, BNP 151. (June 2004 - Three seats Lab 1133, 1022, 971, Lib Dem 737, C 727, Lib Dem 702, 680, C 677, 611). Lab hold. Swing 2.3% C to Lab.
Westminster London Borough - Harrow Road: Lab 774, C 306, Lib Dem 150. (May 2002 - Three seats Lab 1029, 952, 942, C 362, 328, Green 289, C 287, Lib Dem 278). Lab hold. Swing 1.6% C to Lab.
Max - In any of the seats you mentioned do you think the local tories would select a posh sounding southerner to be their PPC. If not why not ?
The Pub is going fishing off Rhos tomorrow - unable to join them but I will be passing on the way to Snowdon for annual run up and down - may call in to Rhos.
Last year did the Llanberis to top and back in 1 hour 38mins hoping to better it this year.
73. Strange results in Castle Morpeth!
Last comment was for Tabman, and somehow I forgot to mention that it is my daughter who does the running - I just watch!
70 - I can’t claim credit for that; it goes to the wonderfully creative James. I am working on some very dry figures and keep seeking light relief!
I didn’t think there were any Conservatives in Castle Morpeth.
75 - the weather was fantastic last Sunday. Does your daughter do the distance stuff (eg half marathons)?
Police shoot dead suspected Suicide Bomber at Stockton Station.
82 - I think that should be Stockwell tube station.
70 - to link in with discussion on the previous thread, one of the unintended (and in my mind wholly beneficial) consequences of a concerted terrorist campaign in London (which I sincerely hope does NOT happen) is that it might add impetus to the first stirings of regionalisation that we are beginning to see.
This phenomenon is overtly visible in the returning confidence of cities like Manchester, Leeds and Glasgow, but is also taking place at a grassroots level as exemplified by some of our contributors here who have “downsized” to other parts of the country.
73 - Northfield Brook by-election (Oxford)
Not too sure how the swing of 6.6% Lib Dem to Lab was calculated. It was in fact 18% IWCA to Lab. (FWIW, the Lib Dem vote share doubled.)
77 , Icarus . My dear fellow , I have to say I was a touch worried at the prospect of your good self gasping for air on the run , there are some on the site salivating at the prospect of a by-election !!!
Comment by Jack Bannister-Kip Kano MacW in a time of 3 minutes 59 Seconds …….
78 - Thank you. It was in fact created for Tabman’s proposed run next time. He has disguised the constituency name in order to retain the element of surprise (and he has tailored it to be from a Tory candidate).
I’d also note that it was not meant as a comment on northern constituencies, but on the type of leaflet you would see from candidates in those wonderful days before David Penhaligon ruined politics for us ruling classes by insisting MPs visit their constituency more than twice a decade. Any constituency name (except perhaps Cities of London & Westminster) could be substituted.
I would certainly agree that the area north of Watford has at least its fair share of posh. Or so I am informed by people who have ventured up there.
70 - Somewhere like Cheadle is prosperous, but the local Conservative association would be very unlikely to select a plummy southerner as a candidate - he’d just get laughed at by the electorate. Just because we’re doing well for ourselves doesn’t mean we don’t have chips on our shoulder. That’s not to say anyone posh doesn’t stand a chance - a northern knight of the shires (eg Sir Marcus Fox - posh Yorkshire) can do well - but I can’t imagine a David Cameron winning anywhere in the pleasant suburbs of the north. Perhaps in the rural seats…
The difference with Tony Blair is that the Durham coalfield will vote Labour whatever - ‘donkeys with red rosettes,’ as they used to say. They may not like the candidate personally, but they’ll still turn out and vote for him.
Two years ago I got the train up and walked down last year just walked until the road gave out - a very steep bit to start - how some of them run all the way up I do not know. Tabman - she does lots in Wales - front page of Cambrian News with a cup a few weeks ago and was in the winning womens relay team in the Man v Horse race.
At the election texted me “At last one of us lives in a Liberal Constituency” - Ceredigion
86 - no problem, James. Strictly speaking (and I’m sure we’ve discussed this previously) its “North of Watford Gap“, which is, of course, in Northamptonshire and on the imaginary Severn Estuary/Wash line that divides “Oop North” from the South.
You are also right about the posh people - the Duke of Westminster lives in Cheshire, and the Duke of Devonshire lives in Derbyshire. Then, of course, there is our own dear former MP for Rutland SW …
87 - I suppose this means I must be defining Tatton as rural, as George Osborne is there. Hmm. It is, a bit. It’s not in a metropolitan county, anyway.
I’m interested that no-one here is talking about Willetts. I don’t know anything about him myself, but both the Telegraph and the Economist have, in the last couple of weeks, reported him as being one of the main three contenders (alongside Davis and Cameron). My expectation is that he will prove too cerebral a character and hence be unelectable in the face of an increasingly dumbed-down voting public, but any other views?
Cameron doesn’t come across as posh to me, and less than Blair does. My own inoculation against the sinister Labour disease came from brush with the scion of the noble Paget clan who was Northampton’s MP for far too long. He had a plum down his throat and thought 10 year olds in back streets were all deaf as he sneered at us.
Posh Labour MP’s are a big negative always but posh conservative ones are, while not expected, at least not unusual. The secret is not to sound and behave posh, never be condescending and not, if you are a Tory, to pretend to be from the Estuary and stop your glottals. Its alright for Blair to do it but not a Tory.
By the way did you notice how many politicians of all persuasions had a high class drawl in the broadcast of the 1970 election. Mr Janner amongst them. Sound like that these days and any politician is doomed.
76, not so strange, Andrea.
Castle Morpeth is a divided borough, bot socially and in parliamentary constituencies. Pegswood is in the seat of Wansbeck, and a working class ex-mining area, so a Lib Dem swing from Lab with C not contesting is no surprise with general trends in 2005. Ponteland is very up-market (for the region, dominated by private housing with many Newcastle commuters (and, it is rumoured, preferred residence of many of the Geordie city’s criminal fraternity - not true, I’m sure!)- so Labour don’t figure, but good progress for the Conservatives. It is in the Tory Hexham constituency.
88 , Icarus . ” was in the winning womens relay team in the Man v Horse race ”
I’m tempting fate here but ?!?!?!?!?!
91 - I think the main problem with Willets - apart from, as you say, the rather cerebral impression he gives - is that no-one expects the Tories to pick Willets, and the electorate (or at least those who appoint themselves the voice of the electorate) seem to get rather miffed if the parties do something so far from what they were expecting. “Typical Tories,” they’ll say, “always voting on the basis of who someone isn’t.” That this might not be true doesn’t stop it being damaging.
But I too am a little surprised at the lack of attention Willets has received.
87 I always thought Sir Marcus Fox (C, Shipley 1970-97) was worth thousands of votes to the Tories in Yorkshire. He was hardly posh, but his ‘You know it makes sense’ attitude to political questions, regional accent (Dewsbury for the cognoscenti of West Riding accents)-and a perennial smile - presented an acceptable face for the Tories in West Yorkshire. But even that couldn’t save him in 1997…
87 - it used to be (and in some areas still is ) not unknown for the phenomenon to apply to the blue rosette also.
88 - a heritage constituency
91 - there was discussion of Willetts some months back and IIRC he was dismissed as not telegenic enough, and too bright.
92 - in the documenatry on Heath on Tuesday, one of his contemporaries described him as sounding cockney
Heath responded in his most polished RP that “One doesn’t rarely know how one sounds.”
Generally speaking, accents are much less clipped than they were - listen to the Queen from 50 years ago, and you get far less “thet” for “that” than you would have. Although vowel transposition seems to have been a function of all sorts of accents, eg the Londoners you hear in newsreel footage who might say something like “Thet’s a virry good idea!”
Icarus re Clarke’s odds please see my Post 10.
Icarus re Clarke’s odds please see my Post at 10.
87 - And since we’re talking about the 1970 election, IIRC (probably not!), Fox was the other half (with Chris Chataway)of the Tories’ rather effective ‘News At Ten’ style party election broadcasts during the campaign.
93. Thanks for the descriptions of those wards.
“Pegswood is in the seat of Wansbeck, and a working class ex-mining area, so a Lib Dem swing from Lab with C not contesting is no surprise with general trends in 2005″
I missed that the tories weren’t contesting the seat.
“Ponteland is very up-market (for the region, dominated by private housing with many Newcastle commuters (and, it is rumoured, preferred residence of many of the Geordie city’s criminal fraternity - not true, I’m sure!)- so Labour don’t figure, but good progress for the Conservatives”
yes, it’s an area where the conservatives could do well, but there’re many potenital conservatives areas where at the end they don’t perform well.
All these talks about being posh, but what’s the definition of “posh” everyone is using?
94 - Man versus horse race: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/mid_/3801177.stm
This is a small town in mid Wales with a penchant for unusual races - this is also the home of bog snorkelling and mountain bike bog snorkelling:
http://llanwrtyd-wells.powys.org.uk/index1.htm
101 - “posh” is a slang term for upper, or upper-middle, class. Apocryphally it comes from an anagram (Port Out, Starboard Home) stamped on the tickets of wealthy travellers to India; in each case that is the shaded side of the ship on the journey from the UK to the continent.
96 - I always considered Marcus Fox posh on the grounds that you have to be fairly posh to be called ‘Marcus’. But, as you say, unmistakably Yorkshire - the two are not mutually exclusive.
103 “from the UK to the sub-continent (and back).”
Andrea - have you ever been to Courmayeur? I think that’s probably the closest Italian equivalent to ‘posh’. Though attempting to explain the British class system to foreign ears is not an easy thing to do.
103. but what does make a man posh?
I wouldn’t say that Blair is posh. If I have to think about a posh man, I would think about Mandelson, bot Blair.
It’s nice to have your knowledge confirmed:
Word History: “Oh yes, Mater, we had a posh time of it down there.” So in Punch for September 25, 1918, do we find the first recorded instance posh, meaning “smart and fashionable.” A popular theory holds that it is derived from the initials of “Port Out, Starboard Home,” the cooler, and thus more expensive, side of ships traveling between England and India in the mid-19th century. The acronym POSH was supposedly stamped on the tickets of first-class passengers traveling on that side of ships owned by the Peninsular and Oriental Steam Navigation Company. No known evidence supports this theory, however. Another word posh was 19th- and early 20th-century British slang for “money,” specifically “a halfpenny, cash of small value.” This word is borrowed from the Romany word påh, “half,” which was used in combinations such as påhera, “halfpenny.” Posh, also meaning “a dandy,” is recorded in two dictionaries of slang, published in 1890 and 1902, although this particular posh may be still another word. This word or these words are, however, much more likely to be the source of posh than “Port Out, Starboard Home,” although the latter source certainly has caught the public’s etymological fancy.
From: http://www.yourdictionary.com/ahd/p/p0463600.html
107 - But Blair is posh because he went to public school, and there’s no way out of poshness after that. (Maybe I exaggerate slightly). He tries to hide it, but he is.
101 posh: smart, elegant and fashionable as the upper classes (or acting like it)
(Deriv: disputed, let’s not go down that route -it’s boring if you’ve heard the usual one so many times)
106. ok, so I was thinking about the right meaning of the word. Probably the other place for posh people in Italy in Costa Smeralda in Sardinia.
108: my post was too late, I fear
106 - I have and I don´t think Courmayeur is all that posh.
107 - posh people have been privately educated (and thus speak english with an accent slightly foreign to most people). They send their children to private schools and they choose old-fashioned names for them. Blair is a bit posh. On the television (popular shows) he puts on a kind of estuary English - unconvincing and patronising - but probably worth votes. It is because he sounds a bit posh that the Heath anecdote (you don´t look or sound Labour) is funny.
107 - Andrea, that is one of the most difficult and intricate questions you can ask of British/English society.
Someone can be wealthy, privately-educated, a graduate of Oxbridge, wear handmade suits and shoes, drive a Bentley (never a Rolls), live in a stately home etc etc, and still not be posh. Its beyond definition, though let me direct you to the works of Nancy Mitford, specifically Noblesse Oblige for an insight into the whole thing.
It can be summed up by the example of Alan Clark (posh) describing Micahel Heseltine (not posh) as “the sort of man who has to buy his own furniture.”
113 - posh people have been privately educated (and thus speak english with an accent slightly foreign to most people). They send their children to private schools and they choose old-fashioned names for them.
Necessary but not sufficient. Sometimes not even necessary - listen to Princess Anne.
109. There is nothing that irritates me more about Blair (apart from waging illegal wars that is) is when he tries to sound “common” knocking the G sound of the end in “ing” words.
He went to the poshest Edinburgh School, the richest college in Oxford and then into the bar.
113. Peter, Courmayeur has the reputation to be expensive (like Cortina)and so a place for “rich people to spend the new year evening”.
116.”There is nothing that irritates me more about Blair (apart from waging illegal wars that is) is when he tries to sound “common” knocking the G sound of the end in “ing” words”
Thething that irritates me the mist about Blair is the smile. That’s why I liked him during his speech after the London’s bombs: he didn’t have to smile.
117 - I didn´t know that - it seemed quite cheap to me! Something can be expensive and not posh, and posh but not expensive. Taormina strikes me as posher - but you get a lot of celebrities there, and celebrities aren´t normally posh.
119 - I thought it seemed like an Italian equivalent of, say, Harrogate. But with mountains and ski slopes. Full of expensive clothes shops and expensively clothed people. Also, while other Italian places I have been have been fun, this seemed a little stuffy - we weren’t unwelcome, but I did feel as if they thought we were a little vulgar.
119 It could mean 2 things: a) you’re very rich and so you find it cheap
b) its reputation isn’t very accurate (or probably it’s based about the past)
Do you know lots of Italian place, did you live there (here)?
34 - People might vote for DD because he has a normal background. You might think the average voter sits there with all the manifestos and compare policies but I don’t. Do you think we are stuck on 33% because we are getting policy wrong - Cameron had alot to do with formulating policy at the last election but you are backing him.
I think the areas we are getting wrong is more about image and tactics.
Did people vote for Michael Howard because of his background? Or IDS? or Hague? or Major? or Thatcher?
Baxkground is unimportant. I agree it is image and tactics that really need changing.
DD is already seen and portrayed as “extreme” and “rightwing” (not good at the BBC). DC is seen as moderate, young, charming etc. I suspect that DD is not as rightwing nor DC as centrist as the media portrays them, but how the media presents you is vitally important. DC has a clear run, DD will be fighting his hardman image all the way.
They send their children to private schools and they choose old-fashioned names for them.
Like David.
121 - Tabman - I used to live in Rome. I was in Courmayeur more recently - when the tunnel was closed. I think many places in Italy will seem quite posh to an English person, as behaviour (and especially drinking) is generally more restrained.
Tabman - I agree that it is not enough to have gone to a private school. But it is hard to be posh without it (although I suppose a governess might do the trick).
124 - Sorry first Tabman should be Andrea of course (I imagine they are different people!)
125. I think I’m not Tabman too….but I’m not very sure
When were you in Rome? Was the DC still alive (and all other parties)?
110: posh - there’s the old money/new money thing, though. Traditional posh is definitely not smart and fashionable - a traditional gentleman wears an old tweed jacket. They would recoil in horror from someone in a Ferrari with fifteen suits and a diamond tiepin. Politics aside, old posh people are generally nice and not at all inclined to sneer at anyone.
Mildly good by-elections for Labour, bar the Morpeth curiosities.
114. It wasn’t Alan Clark it was supposedly Michael Jopling though he denies it
They were in their death throes. I was there from 1991 to 1994, so di Pietro and Mani Pulite were busy. To name drop mildly, I used to meet (one of?) Andeotti’s daughters occasionally for professional reasons - she became much more open and friendly as the investigations continued.
I used to live in Aventino - a posh area, as you probably know. But I didn´t live in the poshest part!
I can think of a couple of other popular Tory toffs from north of the border. Sir Hector Monro who stood down in Dumfries in 1997 (which perhaps explains the massive swing to Labour) and Alick Buchanan-Smith who would probably have held West Aberdeenshire even in 1997 had he still been alive. His cousin, and fellow toff is the LD MP for the same seat, Sir Robert Smith. So being posh isn’t neccesarily a bar to sucess, although these were exceptional individuals.
129. I was too young to remember clearly those days, but at the time every day a new MP was arrested or investigated. Some of the politicians of the time are still in the political scene now.
Didn’t Ann Widdecombe study in Oxford too? Don’t tell him she’s posh.
131 - Cossiga, Bossi, Fini come to mind. But almost all the PSI politicans seem to have gone: the exception being Amato.
131 - she did, god bless her, although at Lady Margaret Hall which is certainly the best Oxford college but does not have a reputation as a “posh” college and is indeed one of the newer and poorer colleges (my fiver-a-month standing order is hardly likely to change that either…)
St Johns, which Mr Smithson referred to at 116, could not be more different as a college.
Interest, sorry to be so long replying - but have to go to the pub on Fridays. The answer re Clarke’s odds on Betfair is that there is almost no market - last deal done was at 11/1 but now can get 13.5/1 and noone has taken my 19/1 offer.
132. We have Craxis’son. De Michelis and Boniver are back and Martelli is doing some TV shows. The ones more heavly corrupted weren’t obviously able to come back. Many DC politicians are still there (De Mita, Mancino, Jervolino -with her voice-) and some old communists too (Cossutta).
Di Pietro is in politics too now.
102 , John C . Of course there’s posh :
http://www.michael-live.com/models/beckham.htm
and posh :
http://www.lochiel.net/chiefs/xxvi.html
De Michelis is back
che vergogna! Di Pietro is in the European Parliament these days, isn´t he?
133.”St Johns, which Mr Smithson referred to at 116, could not be more different as a college”
Who are the other MPs who went to St Johns?
I know that Andrew Smith and Angela Eagle went there-
137. “De Michelis is back che vergogna!”
He was elected in the EU Parliament last year (his party- the New PSI- is in the government coalition). Another one who was elected in the EU Parliament last year is Cirino Pomicino (don’t know if you remember him. He was a DC former Cabinet Minister)
136 and the Posh: http://www.theposh.com
Your second example looks more chav than posh to me - look at that bling on his hat and the immitation burberry skirt and wrap. I bet that tweed was made by von Dutch.
127 - there’s shabby posh, too. My father had a Liberal councillor colleague who was a retired Naval Commander. My recollection of their house, which was a C17th Manor, was that the furniture was battered and smelt strongly of labrador. I’m not sure I wver saw him in anything other than a threadbare Arran sweater (which also smelt of dog).
138 - St John’s College Cambridge contains a suite known as the Triple Set, which I was told were the rooms of the University’s MP.
138 - St John’s is far to classy for its alumni to dirty their hands with politics. I am not sure they are particularly proud of Blair.
139 - I´ll have to start looking at the italian press again. I have just found that La Malfa is still active. Italy seems to be something of a gerontocracy!
Who will eventually replace Berlusconi in your view? Pier Silvio?
Continuing my Cassandra role, there are strong rumours - but I emphasise just rumours - of incidents at Harrow Road, Canary Wharf and on the Waterloo-Southampton line. These seem to be suspect packages etc, perhaps cornered bombers. Indeed as I write the BBC has reported that a stretch of Harrow Road has just been sealed off. I mention this only for pb-ers who might be heading into or out of or across London. Not to sow sturm und drang.
143. He’s Cabinet Minister for European Affairs.
144 - Thank you Sean.
140 , Tabman . Lochiel - ” more chav than posh …”
Gasp …. splutter …. such impudence and tyranny from West Brigdford will not be tolerated !!!!!
http://www.joebrower.com/PHILE_PILE/PIX/TRT/TRT-Braveheart.jpg
Gyles Brandreth (ex mp for Chester) went to New College - but we try noy to talk about it
147 - Richard Briers isn’t posh! http://www.bbc.co.uk/scotland/tv/monarch/family_archives/clip_display/index.shtml?character=hector&series=series1&clip_name=ep5_reflexology
How’s about some proper posh behaviour? http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/SSwestminsterD.htm
148- Michael Meacher went to New College too. Yvette Cooper and Stephen Twigg went to Balliol, Maria Eagle went to Pembroke, Barbara Roche went to Lady Margaret Hall, Mandelson went to St. Catherine’s, Jim Cousins went to New and Ruth Kelly went to Queen’s.
138. How could I have forgot him, but Alan Duncan went to St John’s too.
“Gyles Brandreth (ex mp for Chester) went to New College”
to collect the empty milk bottles?
150 - Andrea, do you have a link to dark (and light) blue MPs?
Alan Wee Dunky Duncan is also a St John’s man. We ‘knew’ each other slightly at University, and I had the pleasure of lobbying him “at home” on some north sea tax matter back in the early 1990s. He’s fun!
150 - Widders, Roche, Matthew Taylor, Michael Gove and Benazir Bhutto were all LMHers. And Antonia Fraser. And Nigella Lawson.
Note to self - cancel standing order first thing on Monday.
153. I don’t know the full list. There’re apparently 45 Labour MPs who are Oxford alumni. I’ve found a partial list (the MPs mentioned @150).
154. why everytime Alan Duncan is mentioned, a new nickname comes up?
So far I read refferring to him as: 1) Dinky Dunky 2) Hunky Dunky 3)Wee Dunky 4)Anal Dunking (from “The Mirror”)
There are reports of shots at Harrow Road. Nothing but rumours at the mo, and may just be over-active imaginations. But there is definitely a fairly serious incident, so best avoid that whole area of North West London - i.e. Kilburn - if you are travelling….
Ian Pearson (Trade Minister) and Damian Green also hail from Balliol
154.” I had the pleasure of lobbying him “at home” ”
What type of activities are required to “lobby” Alan Duncan “at home”? I hope a tea room is not involved….
154 - I couldn’t possibly comment&