If it’s not Gordon Brown - then who is in contention?
July 23rd, 2005
RED Alan Johnson: GREEN David Miliband: BLUE David Blunkett: BLACK Alan Milburn
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What if “events” blew the Chancellor’s career plan off course?
While all the focus has been on the Tory leadership race it’s easy to forget that there’s almost certainly going to be a Labour leadership contest before the General Election. Gordon Brown, of course, is the red hot odds-on favourite but at 0.29/1 you would probably be better off leaving your stake in the building society than locking it up for maybe three years.
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What makes this interesting to gamblers can be summed up in the famous quote attributed to the former Tory Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan. When he was asked by a young journalist what was his biggest worry, he answered “Events, dear boy. Events”. In short, politics is unpredictable.
Clearly anything could happen before the Labour leadership election actually does take place and it’s interesting to look at how punters are rating the other contenders. The above chart shows the implied probability of the top-rated alternatives to the Chancellor based on the betting prices.
The “event” that made the market change in such a dramatic fashion at the end of May was the French referendum result. This led to Tony Blair abandoning the plan for a UK referendum which had been seen by many observers as the moment when he would stand aside. Although the talk now is of a handover in late 2007 or early 2008 nobody can be really certain.
The contender making the most progress is Alan Johnson - the Secretary of State for the Department for Trade and Industry. David Miliband - the Minister of Communities and Local Government - is following closely behind while David Blunkett still finds favour with punters following his return to the Cabinet after the General Election. What is interesting is that the “big beasts” of Tony Blair’s cabinet are not rated. The Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, is down at 69/1 while Charles Clarke and Peter Hain are at 35/1.
With Brown being seen as such a certainty there has been very little interest in this market which would only take-off if the Chancellor’s likely succession looked less of a shoo-in.
Mike Smithson
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Completation of Polls taken this week from Germany
CDU/CSU 45 % 43 % 44 % 43 % 45 % 42 %
SPD 26 % 27 % 27 % 26 % 27 % 27 %
Green 8 % 8 % 8 % 10 % 8 % 9 %
FDP 8 % 7 % 7 % 7 % 7 % 7 %
The Left/PDS 9 % 12 % 11 % 10 % 9 % 12 %
Other parties 3 % 3 % 3 % 4 % 4 % 3 %
It is clear that the CDU/CSU will be the largest party in the Bundestag after the election barring some unexpected event. The SPD vote is split between the SPD and the new Left Party under Oscar Lafontaine which seems to be taking away at least a third of the SPD vote.
The Green Party seems to be uneffected by its 7 year coalition with the SPD and the advent of the new Left Party. They should return to the Bundestag with the same number of members. The FDP numbers are also uneffected.
Henrich 1. I’m planning to do a thread on the German Election within the next 2-3 days. From the betting standpoint the current prices make the CDU/CSU as the almost certain winner with the best price you can get of about 1/25.
Mike
Sorry that I always find myself doing this, but barring Gordon Brown admitting a long standing predilection for eating new born babies, he’ll easily win any leadership election in this term once Tony Blair announces his intention to stand down. However I don’t expect that Brown would serve out more than two full terms as PM, but that’s by the by.
Milburn, despite the fact I quite like the guy, will never ever win the leadership… he is seen as even more of a Blairite than Blair and the Unions and membership have a deep, deep antipathy towards him, what is more his performance in the general election and his retirement from front line politics would make it even more difficult… if your putting money on Milburn to be Labour Leader you might as well throw it down a well.
The same that goes for Milburn also goes for Charles Clark, who just hasn’t got the support but at the same time just doesn’t even look the part, which at least Milburn does.
Blunckett is better liked by the party but wouldn’t stand a cat in hell’s chance of gaining the leadership, the Quinn affair ravaged his credibility which had been up until that point whiter than white, what is more as with Clark and Milburn the membership and the unions would never back him.
Miliband is a possibility but IMHO still to young and without any real experience, he could potentially run for the leadership at some point but not any time soon.
The only credible candidates left, apart from Brown, are Alan Johnson, Hillary Benn and perhaps Peter Hain (though being shunted off to Northern Ireland can’t help). Benn is increasingly popular and has a solid and impressive record as first a junior minister and now international development sectary, what is more there are very few who actively dislike him… much like Mayor in the late 80’s and early 90’s he’s the man nobody dislikes. Johnson has a great avuncular style, and while he is a Blair loyalist hasn’t forgotten his roots in the trades unions and the wider Labour movement its possible that he could mount an effective challenge with support from the unions and membership… though what is base amongst MPs would be like I don’t know.
In reality though I’d expect Brown to win 55-60% in all three electoral colleges, with two perhaps three opponents in the shape of John Reid, Alan Simpson (the hard left will have a candidate) and perhaps Peter Hain… the likes of Johnson and Benn will probably bide their time, hoping for promotion under Brown, and that would not be a foolish hope for either of the two men.
I think this is an excellent question. Setting aside my own prejudices around Brown, he is clearly a man of substance.
Him apart, I would asert that all the snipes and insults levelled against the Conservative leadership Candidates are equally valid looking at the NuLab line up as well.
Robin Cook potentially had ‘it’but is far too ‘Labour’ and far too little ‘Nu’
David Blunkett (the most right wing Home secretary ever) is far to
‘Nu’these days and has sold out on his Socialist principles
Alan Milburn ….. please, he can’t even run an election campaign !!
David Miliband .. If David Davis is aggresive (and unsuitable)how can he be viable ???
Alan Johnson… Interesting, clearly not stellar but a safe pair of hands and a possible compromise Candidate between the two wings ?
Is this though what the party would need at a time of what could well
be difficulty and falling popularity.
Being pulled from pillar to post internally and facing external and financial difficulties, how would he cope.
Without being unkind as I’ve never met the man, he doesn’t exude much in the way of charisma under interview conditions either.
I believe that should Brown not inherit the crown that NuLab will have a very serious crisis on their hands.
Can’t wait !! (Please God )
Have to agree with Ben. Barring the affore mentioned baby eating revelation it’s hard to see him losing. As much as I would love a Hain or a John Reid to win, it doesn’t look like its going to happen. How old is Hilary Benn BTW, if he’s young enough he could perhaps come in after Brown. Always quite impressed with him and he comes across as a very pleasant, very reasoned individual.
3/4 - yes a sad comment on the lack of talent on the front bench of the Government that so few are even considered Prime Minister potential , Nulab rather like old Conservative here also .
Mark [5] - in other words, if Gordon Brown fell under the proverbial bus (or was caught eating babies), our Dear Leader would go On and On and On…
How many MPs are required to present a candidature in the Labour leadership contest?
As this is my first comment on these pages so I’m not in a position to know the political persuasions of particular contributors. I must say though that Mr Smithson appears to show greater far-sightedness than those who have responded to him thus far. While he says that “anything could happen before the Labour leadership election actually does take place” others appear to take the view that nothing could happen, bar cannabalism, that could throw Brown off course. The first of those views is clearly right. Assuming that Tony Blair will remain in office for roughly another two years, I can see no merit in holding a firm view on the identity of the next leader of the Labour Party.
I will place my vote (should he stand) for John Reid who - as a strong Labour Secretary of Defence who appears to delight in rubbing people up the wrong way - seems to be to have a hint of Denis Healey about him. Sadly, those same qualities mean he’ll probably lose.
I would think Robin Cook’s chances are better than Alan Milburn’s, David Blunkett’s or even Alan Johnson’s (though his stock could rise).
If the proverbial bus hit both Brown and Blair to-morrow I wouldn’t be surprised to see Robin Cook fighting it out with Hillary Benn and Peter Hain.
I must say that I disagree with those on the other thread who implied that Gordon Brown is a poor politician. Until he becomes leader it’s difficult to tell but he will bring a massive reputation with him which should comfortably see him through the first few years which will include the ‘09 election.
Custos. The political persuasion of those on this board are overwhelmingly Tory with a reasonable showing of Lib Dems (including our dear leader Mike!). Labour supporters are as common Scottish Tory MP’s.
10. In that case, say hello to your new Scottish Tory MP. Maybe there’s some Crippsian puritan streak that prevents Labour members from wishing to bet on politics. I certainly intend to give it a try though.
Sorry that should have read “….As thin on the ground as Scottish Tory MP’s”. I wouldn’t want Max to think I was suggesting Scottish Tory MP’s were ‘common’
10 - just you then roger?
re: 14; I meant 11. Deary me.
Re. 3, not for the first time we agree, Ben. Brown’s popularity with the CLPs is something I saw first hand at Conference last year (he got a standing ovation before he even said anything!)
Re. 8, welcome to the show. While many like Reid’s bumptious style, it isn’t just that style which puts off others. There’s the fact that he joined the Communist Party after the invasion of Czechoslovakia, and stayed at a Geneva Hotel as the guest of indicted Bosnian Serb war criminal, Dr Radovan Karadzic. It is, to say the least ironic, that as Defence Secretary, he now has responsibility for British troops searching for said war criminal in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
There was also his behaviour as Armed Forces Minister over the Mull of Kintyre helicopter crash (ie his refusal to consider that the two pilots may not be guilty of negligence, in spite of a contrary verdict from a Scottish Fatal Accident Enquiry, an all-party enquiry by the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee, and other new evidence).
Custos 9 - welcome to the site. As to John Reid he suffers from being bald and own-up baldies, and I write as one, have never prospered in UK politics. Only three elections have been won by those not ready to hide their baldness - Atlee in 1945 and 1950 and Churchill in 1951 and in all three cases their opponent was also bald.
Look what happened to Neil Kinnock and William Hague.
Is it any wonder then that aspiring prime ministers who are a bit short on top might consider artifical remedies and who could blame them?
16 - I don’t fancy Reid’s chances at all. I also think the allegations that were referred to the Standards Commitee could be resurected. He alo seems to have made some enemies, I remember Henry McLeish referring to him as ‘a patronising bastard’.
I don’t neccessarily agree that the fact their is only one real challenger is indicative of a lack of ministerial talent its more that its very hard to shine when two individuals have been so dominant.
16. I find it hard to believe that Dr Reid’s communist past will harm his chances among Labour Party members. I place myself on the right of the party and if I am unconcerned about it then I’d be surprised if others to the left of me were. Moreover, there are a number of people around the cabinet table with communist pasts to contend with. If it were seen as a bar on advancement then they wouldn’t be in the cabinet to begin with.
A possible link with Karadzic is something I’m vaguely aware of but have not been able to find a reputable source from which to draw a firm view. On the face of it, it is very disturbing.
The Times Guide to the House of Commons is finally out - you can get more than ten pounds knocked off it at play.com, free p and p (hope this doesn’t fall foul of the sp*m filter).
No, I’ve not got shares in play.com, just trying to be helpful.
Mike at 17. Rhodri Morgan for leader then?
17. Has she enough hair to become PM?
http://www.kalimountfordmp.org.uk/images/misc/Kali-pic.jpg
20 - thanks. It’s a couple of quid cheaper at Amazon, assuming you’re happy with the free delivery which tends to take 3 or 4 days.
17. I have to confess that I hadn’t considered his baldness. Without doubt more damaging to a potential Labour leader than a communist past.
It must be said though that Reid wouldn’t be facing such formidable opponents as Hague and Kinnock had the misfortune to face.
24.”Without doubt more damaging to a potential Labour leader than a communist past.”
The communist past is not damaging to bacome Labour leader, but maybe it could become damaging to become PM (although Reid has already showed that he isn’t a leftwinger at the moment).
It never really seemed to be held against Denis Healey as far as I know.
24.”Without doubt more damaging to a potential Labour leader than a communist past.”
Hain’s Liberal past is probably more damaging.
I think that’s “shoo-in”, Mike.
8. Leadership candidates need to be nominated by 12.5% of the PLP. Its difficult to see Alan Simpson or any other hard-left candidate getting that many.
I agree that there is a dearth of talent on Labour’s front bench, which should be of great concern to Labour voters (Conservatives actually have a much better Shadow Cabinet). They do have some rising stars such as Miliband and Ed Balls, but these are leaders of a next generation. If Brown were to fall under the political bus when Blair goes it is difficult to see who could provide a viable alternative. The only Cabinet ministers I can think of who I would even consider being PM calibre is Charles Clarke, Alistair Darling or possibility Reid. Ruth Kelly could be a contender but she needs wider Cabinet experience.
As a Tory I have to say my sincere hope is for Jack Straw to become the next Labour leader, Tory landslide at the next election guaranteed!
29. That’s why I asked. He would need 44-45 MPs. The Campaign Group MPs are only 24. I find difficult for him to get the support for many MPs outside the campaign group (maybe Clare Short).
Close your eyes and think not of England but the various potential candidates for the Labour and Conservative parties and try to imagine them as Prime Minister . How many fit the bill , how many do not even bring an image to mind and how many just make you want to break out into a cold sweat ?
24 - Welcome to the board Custos , it will take you a little time to distinguish between the serious contributors and those who just post frivolities - LOL
What is extraordinary about all of this is that the Cabinet member with the most brilliant head of hair, Alan Johnson, should be second favourite. In no way can he be described as a “big beast” though his time might come.
When I’ve got the time I must do a Google image search on him to check out that head of hair!
Hilary Benn I believe will be the leader after Brown. I can’t see anyone in the cabinet that’s leader material at all. Straw looks like the demon headmaster and his ministrial abilties are questionable. Hain is prone to gaffs and has a liberal past. Reid has a chip on his shoulder hooligan mentality who would go down like a lead balloon in the south. Blunkett is too right wing and is forever tainted by the Quinn affair. Darling will tainted by having to sort out Browns mess at the treasury. Hewitt is a condesending nanny and Charles Clarke stands no chance after his spell in the leadership graveyeard of the home office.
If Benn keeps out of the way of controversey then his stock should continue to rise.
33. Mike, has he enough hair for a comeback?
http://www.unav.es/dpp/tecnologia/proyectos2004/77/imagenes/petermandelson.jpg
I think that the Honourable Lady @22 couldn’t be defeated in a contest based on hair.
32. Mark, I colsed my eyes and imagined about various politician as PM and the most scaring ones were: Charlie Kennedy (and I like him, but I couldn’t imagine him as a serious PM), Kilroy Silk, George Galloway, Clare Short and Ann Widdecombe.
“it will take you a little time to distinguish between the serious contributors and those who just post frivolities ”
Especially considering what I almost immediately posted after his post @19.
36. Are you seggesting that Mandy is hiding us something very important about his hair?
There was a post by Mike Smithson @ 36 earlier. I swear! haven’t drunk Jack’s wine.
Andrea 37. There was a 36 but I double-checked the dates and what I thought was an earlier picture was in fact more modern. Mandy is in the clear.
Seen on local newsboard ‘Woman jailed for her obsession with PC’. So is Polly Toynbee serving time at HMP?
Has anyone heard the rumour that if Brown does eventually take over there will be a further name change for the party,which will be rebranded New Old Labour?
38. Ok, so I’m not going crazy (yet). For a moment I was really worried.
40. He doesn’t need a name change, because Labour under Brown won’t become old labour again.
24. You think Major was formidable in 1992? With the economy in the shape it was in?
The prices on this market seem a bit odd to me. I would have thought the next Labour leader will be a heavy-weight - someone with significant experience in the top half of the Cabinet. How David Milliband could make it so soon I have no idea. Hilary Benn I agree is good, but as someone pointed out, you don’t make enemies as International Development Secretary so he’s not tested as the others are. Johnson and Darling I can just about see as being contenders at the outside. But I would have thought Clarke, Blunket, Hewitt and maybe Reid are the ones to watch. Milburn I agree is a bit too new Labour, but might just be there. I’m tempted by the Clarke odds, although struggling to get through tuition fees and ID cards don’t bode well. Robin Cook I find difficult to assess.
I agree with Mike though, although Brown will probably do it, it’s just not as predictable as the markets suggest. I speak as someone who lost on Portillo for Tory leader!
43 - “How David Milliband could make it so soon I have no idea.”
Of course, if Blair decides he wants a fourth term…
But I more or less agree with your assessment. Hewitt is generally a little underrated in these discussions, I think.
44. Hewitt as labour leader is something I would pray for.
45. There’s something better for the tories than Hewitt as Labour leader: Tessa Jowell.
44. Of course, if Blair decides he wants a fourth term
Don’t tempt him! He could go on and on and at the end even David Milliband will be too old (I’ve just discovered that David Milliband and Ruth Kelly were a couple).
9 – Custos Morum
John Reid has nigh on zero following in the CLPs or the Unions, within the PLP he’d also be courting a pretty small group of MPs on the right of the party who wouldn’t support Brown, indeed most of the modernising right, “softleft” centre and the majority of the left are inclined towards Brown and both the centrists and left-wingers would never back Reid.
11 – Roger
I’ve been a very long standing poster on this board, and yet I’m a Labour Party supporter, member and employee
29 – Lorcan
Alan Simpson can pretty much rely on the Campaign Group (30 or so MPs) as well as a collection of the usual suspects outside of the Campaign Group to back him, he’s a genial and likeable guy and has some support within the membership and lots of personal friends in the PLP, “that said” he’d never win and few agree with him on a political level but where he not to garner enough support the anti-Brown HardLeft would probably coalesce round someone, Clare Short? *Shudder*
30 – Scribbler
You seem to be exhibiting the same Tory confidence that “once Tony goes all will be well” that I fear seems to be afflicting much of the Conservative Party at the moment, the truth is neither the Tories nor Labour nor, if we have to talk about the “three main parities” (
), the LibDems have a vast number of MPs who would make first rate leaders or indeed Prime Ministers, for the Tories their best hopes are Cameron and Davis, the LibDems have Davey, Hughes (though I’m not sure about that one Mike 
) and perhaps some from their new intake, Teather? Labour can offer in the junior ranks Lammy, Flint, Byrne, Balls, Cooper and Miliband sadly few of these have reached the cabinet yet and none have reached any of the “big jobs” of the those in the cabinet many have quite frankly passed their “sell-by dates” however the likes of Johnson, Benn, Straw and Brown make up for this.
34 - woody662
Agree Benn is almost certain to be the leader after Brown though by that time I would have expected the likes of Byrne, Miliband, Balls and Cooper to have risen as well, though perhaps not far enough… but Benn’s popularity within the party really is growing and in recent months he has visibly shaken off the some what bookish persona he had shown in the past.
41 - Andrea
I also agree, Brown was one of the key modernising figures within the Labour Party easily as important as Mandelson or Blair. The idea that he will somehow revert to a Wilsonian Labour Party is plain daft IMHO… the key differences will be in his priorities and tone, he will be more openly Labourite in his tone, though not to the extent that he will alienate people, what is more the membership and unions will have their say and while its unlikely that Brown would ever countenance empowering conference they will certainly be seen to be treated with more courtesy, though I doubt there will be any real change expect perhaps for the unions as their focus and agenda will largely correspond with Brown’s though no doubt he won’t go as far as they might like.
44 - book value
Re. Hewitt, people in Leicester’s Labour party still speak of the time that Hewitt danced the funky chicken in her ultimately unsuccessful campaign for the Leicester East seat
But you’ve got a point, I’ve always though she would be a good candidate for the deputy leadership.
Could the decision to replace Trident, or not, affect who the unions support ? Several unions still have nominally anti-nuclear positions.
And people think that talking about the Tory Leadership is boring…..
Gordon Brown is a foregone conclusion.
47. “Alan Simpson can pretty much rely on the Campaign Group (30 or so MPs) as well as a collection of the usual suspects outside of the Campaign Group to back him”
According to their website, the Campaign Group MPs are only 24. Outside the Campaign Group, who are the usual suspects who could back him? Clare Short and maybe Glenda Jackson.
Speaking of Clare Short, how many chances does her private bill have to pass? William Hague and Ken Clarke are backing her, but the rest of the tories will support the bill?
AH 49 Brown a foregone conclusion? Possibly - but remember Macmillan quote - “Events dear boy. Events”. And the longer GB has to wait the greater the chance of “events”.
I am intrigued why BV and Ben - pb.com collosi both - have such a high opinion of Patricia Hewitt. Her ministerial record has been mediocre at best and as for her manner, well..:roll: !!
50- My math is not very good: the Campaign Group MPs are 25. The situation doesn’t change anyway.
51. yes, events, but events could happen anytime for anyone (even for Mr Blair).
4 years ago some of the MPs defeated this time probably didn’t even think about the possibility to lose their seat in 2005 (I really doubt that 4 years ago Oona King was thinking about being defeated by Gallowway-especially since Galloway was still a Labour MP).
51 - Mike: I suppose there is always a chance of something derailing him, but surely that chance is remote at best.
52 - My guess is that she reminds them of their Grannies.
Alastair, Surely governess….
55. What’s wrong with grannies? Especially since your party chose a leader who reminded to a vampire.
I would take a granny over a vampire everyday.
52 - “high opinion” might be putting it a bit strongly. But I don’t really understand why she should be rated lower than, say, Hain, Clarke, Milburn or Reid (presumably at least she isn’t below Byers any more!), either on her record or her manner.
The real story is what a step down in political gifts the Labour party is going to take by going from Blair to just about anyone else.
52. It’s strange. It would be interesting one day (when people are bored) to compile a list of how much you like or dislike another parties politicians. There are a number of labour politicians I respect and have some time for but I just can’t find one endearing feature of Patricia Hewitt.
56 - The rest (Beckett, Jowell etc.) are all too feminist to me. Patricia Hewitt would be the obvious female candidate. It puts me in mind of something that I remember my Grandmother (a Tory to the last, God bless her) said to an aunt of mine once. Having been asked about equality between the sexes, she replied ‘My dear, why should I want equality with people I’ve always been superior to?’
She was a wily one…
59 - and I just can’t see why she’s any worse than anyone else in the Cabinet. Funny.
To all her fans:
http://cache.gettyimages.com/comp/53159096.jpg?x=x&dasite=MS_GINS&ef=2&ev=1&dareq=E2399169AC85D6DE9A21091711E5AD1E9BC2E50F8D0B182E7757C85AE85A779B
Thinking well, I could see her playing a governess in one those movies set at the begginig of 1900 and starring Emma Thompson.
To all her fans (woody662, John O and A H Matlock in particular):
http://cache.gettyimages.com/comp/53159096.jpg?x=x&dasite=MS_GINS&ef=2&ev=1&dareq=E2399169AC85D6DE9A21091711E5AD1E9BC2E50F8D0B182E7757C85AE85A779B
Thinking well, I could see her playing a governess in one of those films set at the beginning of 1900 and starring Emma Thompson.
62. I use that picture as the background on my computer to remind me why I’m a member of the Tory party.
Andrea, In fact, I was rather thinking of Mary Poppins (on steroids).
63. Will this one make you switch party?
http://www.political.co.uk/annwiddecombe/images/front04.jpg
64. I was actually thinking in a less evil version of Miss Rottenmeier from the Swiss novel “Heidi” (I don’t know if it’s popular in UK too)
1. I’m not so sure that, after devolution, English voters will be very comfortable with electing a Scottish Prime Minister. Brown may be popular with the Labour faithfull, but might have more of a problem convincing the essential swing voters - who mostly live in English constituencies.
2. Brown’s popularity will also depend a lot on how the British economy will develop in the next few years. There are signs that economic growth will be lower than expected this year. This will create problems with the budget.
3. By campaigning with Blair the way he did this year, Brown will have more of a problem distancing him from the unpopular aspects of the Blair legacy than some other candidates. I’m sure his enemies, both in- and outside the Labour party, will be ready to point this out later.
Has Anyone Seen KC’s Speech The Other Night Reported Anywhere?
Re. 30, Ben, I’d say Clegg for possible future LD leader. Teather will have to improve a hell of a lot after her disastrous baptism in the finance debate (she’s also painfully stiff and humourless on QT, with the whole wide-eyed sincerity routine being way overdone, in fact it positively grates). Lammy, meanwhile, is very lucky not to have been dropped from the government altogether after his shaky performance during the passage of the Mental Incapacity Bill (and some truly awful performances on Any Questions and Question Time).
I agree it’s a shame that Yvette Cooper hasn’t reached the Cabinet. This was due to pure spite on Blair’s part, punishing her in the post-2001 election reshuffle (demoting her to parliamentary under-secretary from Minister of State) for Ed Balls having shouted at the PM over postponing the election. She’d have made a far better Education Secretary than Ruth Kelly (and, as Ruth Kelly has had even babies than Yvette, the old excuse that Yvette Cooper has been ’spared’ further promotion to preserve her work-life balance seems rather thin). It’s absolutely ridiculous that she was only restored to Minister of State rank after May 5th, and in John Prescott’s dept (never fun, given the Deputy PM’s reputed mood-swings). In fact, Blair’s appalling treatment of her may prove extremely damaging to Labour, when (apart from Hillary Benn) she’s one of our more plausible future leaders. She’s certainly more plausible than either Miliband (silly pudding-bowl haircut, wonkish manner, and a penchant for outdated insults such as ‘clot’) or Kelly (awful contrived estuarine drone, bizarre appearance, and not all that good as Education Secretary).
A few quotes from his speech on Tuesday are here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4698105.stm
69 referred to 67.
68. And Susan Kramer for Libdems leader? I read good things about ther (although I’ve never saw or heard her).
Oh don’t start Richard on that
68. Miliband (silly pudding-bowl haircut, wonkish manner, and a penchant for outdated insults such as ‘clot’) or Kelly (awful contrived estuarine drone, bizarre appearance, and not all that good as Education Secretary).
Try to imagine those 2 as boyfriend and girlfriend (like they were).
To all Libdems here (and to the non Libdems too if they know the answer):
between the new intake, who is seen to the left of the party and who is considered on the right of the party? And who is in the middle?
If I’ve understood well, Nick Clegg is on the right of the Libdems, right?
Here’s some red meat for liberals out there. The police shot the wrong guy yesterday. Apparently he had ‘nothing to do with the attacks’, and the Met now regrets the ‘tragedy’. Why did the fool run from armed police a day after four bombs went off? Jeepers. What next?
Re. 75, and he tried to board a train (!) What were the police supposed to think, especially as he was wearing a padded coat in July? This bloke was no Stephen Waldorf.
Re. 71, the good reports are exaggerated. She’s awful - the word ‘yukky’ sums her up. Think a younger version of Jenny Tonge (her predecessor in the constituency) but lardier, with a tragic hairstyle, and a voice which sounds like nails running down a blackboard. If the thought of Miliband and Kelly getting it on makes you wince, then you won’t like Kramer.
Re. 74, and the 05 intake of LDs, Clegg and Huhne are both on the right of the LDs (both Orange Book contributors).
76 - yes, though Huhne is more pro-EU, and not all the Orange Book contributors (e.g. Steve Webb, Ed Davey) are on the right of the party.
Re. 77, I got that impression from his numerous press articles (including those before he became an MEP, never mind an MP). Steve Webb, like Enoch Powell, shows that it’s possible to have a cultured Birmingham accent. Much of his critique of Gordon Brown’s excessive means-testing is sound.
47. “indeed most of the modernising right, “softleft” centre and the majority of the left are inclined towards Brown”
Yes, but like most people I was taking the title of Mike’s post (’If it’s not Gordon Brown - then who is in contention?’) as an invitation to discount Brown. We can all, surely, agree that Brown is favourite.
While Brown is part of the equation practically every other candidate - including Reid - will have no support. Surely the point of interest is where that support would fall were Brown not in the running or severely diminished.
72 - Miliband and Kelly? I would not have guessed it.
80. yes, they were. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1406347,00.html (look at the last part)
76. but with the same opionions of Jenny Tonge?
Speaking of Dr Tonge, she was not a 100% safe choice for a peerage (with her you don’t know what she could say). She admitted that she was surprised when they approached her.
77. And the others (the less famous ones)? Jenny Willott seems to be a Kennedy’s favourite (she is always next to him in group photos).
Lynne Featherstone listed Shirley Williams as her political hero, so I assume she’s near the old SDP.
The other new MPs,like the MPs for Cambridge, Cheadle or the womanizer from Yardley?
It is amusing, as a Lib Dem, watching non Lib Dems trying to pigeon hole potential candidates to succeed CK as to the ‘left’ or ‘right’ of the party.
Nick Clegg was my MEP for 5 years, and I worked on his campaign to become an MEP in 1999. He is a highly articulate mainstream Liberal. His contribution to the Orange Book was an effective critque of the way EU institutions work, but he is passionately pro-EU, just watch him wipe the floor with his eurosceptic fellow Tory MEP’s in the East Midlands.
The comment here about Susan Kramer extends no further than her voice. Some of us found M. Thatcher’s voice somewhat grating, but she still won a few elections. Susan Kramer, unknown at the time (Susan who?), proved an effective candidate for Mayor of London.
Andrea - huh. Thought she might only date Catholics, and didn’t think Miliband was Catholic.
82. There is only 1 Tory MEP for the east midlands since the Euro whips disgracefully took the whip away from Roger Helmer. He won’t wipe the floor with them at all BTW.
82, Yes, the East Midlands is now represented in the EU by 5 parties plus Roger Helmer, who surely belongs in UKIP or Vanitas.
Re. 81, John Hemming a womaniser?!
85. Roger HELMER is not in UKIP, because he didn’t join the Independence/Democracy Group in the EU Parliament (all UKIP MEPs are there).
86. Read this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=1HZPMWNTH2UBRQFIQMFCM5OAVCBQYJVC?xml=/news/2005/06/18/nhemm18.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/06/18/ixhome.html
Roger Helmer is still in the conservative party but has lost the whip in the european parliament.
81 My opinion of Lynn Featherstone has plummeted. There is no politician of any mainland party that I hold more in contempt than Shirley Williams. I shall never forgive her for virtually single handedly destroying the British education system.
…and yet I have a lot of respect for David Owen and my old MP Rosie Barnes so it’s not an anti-SDP thing by any means.
75 & 76: A friend of mine once went out for a while with a Pakistani bloke. He was a nice enough lad - immigrated (legally) a couple of years before, worked hard, a bit quiet in the pub, but then he was still learning English.
Funny enough, he wore a thick coat all the time. You know why? Because the English climate, winter or summer, is considerably cooler than Pakistan’s, and he was still acclimatising.
On the whole, he enjoyed living in Britain though, and found the British to be generally friendly and helpful. That is, apart from the gang of racist yobs who chased after him once. He ran like crazy and jumped on a bus to escape them.
89 - “single handedly”? You do know the Tories closed more grammar schools than Labour?
82 - “It is amusing, as a Lib Dem, watching non Lib Dems trying to pigeon hole potential candidates to succeed CK as to the ‘left’ or ‘right’ of the party.”
“Nick Clegg was my MEP for 5 years, and I worked on his campaign to become an MEP in 1999. He is a highly articulate mainstream Liberal. His contribution to the Orange Book was an effective critque of the way EU institutions work, but he is passionately pro-EU,”
“Mainstream Liberal” - OK, if you like, but the mainstream is not so narrow that no range of positions within it can be distinguished. I’m all for unity and stopping the sniping about the leadership, but I would hope that didn’t mean pretending there were no policy debates. Clearly Nick Clegg isn’t about to advocate withdrawal from the EU, but I was heartened as a Lib Dem EU-sceptic that he seemed to recognise the French referendum result as a wake-up call. I would stand by the argument that Huhne tends to be less critical of EU institutions.
Obviously Brown is a shoe in,
but if events did conspire, and I dearly hope not.
Then John Reid would be the man to step in.
He is always put up front, when there is a crisis for the government.
As was the petrol crisis for a few days, when the government was shaking a bit.
However that would make him a Prime minister like callagan taking over from wilson.
Wouldn`t be sure he could win an election, because of the anti scottish thing especially down south.
Shirley Williams “single-handedly destroying the British educational system”. Here is your exam paper for today!
1. Assess Shirley Williams’s impact upon primary education in Britain.
2. To what extent did she transform the educational system in Scotland?
3. Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of secondary modern schools (attended by most children in the state selective system).
4. In what ways have changes in the tertiary and university educational systems since the 1960s been solely the responsibility of Shirley Williams?
5. By what methods was Shirley Williams able to overcome the opposition of the leading Cabinet members and Prime Minister in the government in which she served?
6. Demonstrate (with examples) how Shirley Williams destroyed the independent education sector in Britain.
Shall we expect your answers to be of ‘old’ A level standard, bearing in mind that in the 1960s and 1970s most young people did not take A levels? Or perhaps of university standard, given that in 1974 only 7% of 18 year olds went to university?
Atleast 500 words on each, please, and only balanced and supported responses will receive credit. A high level of skill demonstrated in analysis, interpretation and evaluation is required, arguments and explanations expressed in a clearly structured manner, making appropriate use of political vocabulary and an excellent standard of written communication.
Then I might give you one of those much derided, all-too-easy, A grades!
I looked at the odds after my last post - Hewitt’s odds at 80-1 are surely absurd. She’s been Trade Secretary for ages. She’s now Health Secretary which I’d say ranks number 5 after Home Secretary. That’s the post from which both Alan Milburn and John Reid became contenders. Against Hewitt, I’ve got a nasty feeling it’s a bit harder for a woman to be chosen still, much as most people try not to be sexist. But if Mike’s right and the next leadership contest isn’t till at least 2008, then she’ll have held one of the most important posts for a couple of years. If Brown doesn’t make it, she should be well in contention by the time of the contest. And of course, if the economy continues to have problems, Brown will be well tarnished by 2008.
Ha ha! Robert’s exam paper at 96: excellent. There are a lot of comments chucked about on this site without a huge amount of supporting evidence - yes, no doubt including many of mine. If only we were all capable of making statements rigorous enough to answer that list of questions.
90. Andy, if you want to discover the political hero and who has most influenced the thinking of some MPs, look at this:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/mpsuncovered/0,9392,1444834,00.html
Some answers are boring (the ones who said “my contituents”).
What Cameron do to forget the stresses of Westminster is not very posh, I would say.
Nick Palmer and George Galloway have something in common: they don’t find the Westminster’s life stressful (no surprise that GG doesn’t find it stressful, he’s almost never there).
I’ve forgot to ask something:
woody662, why did Roger Helmer lose the whip in the EU parliament?
British, are you happy that your tax money are used in this way?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4711689.stm
(I bet that Clare Short will express all her disgust in less than a week-if she’s not on holiday):
There is more evidence today the NuLab have either no business sense or simply want to sell of the national silver to their Bushy friends across the pond. A present of over 7,000% profit in short order from buying shares in one of the best state owned technology companies Qintetiq. And all supervised by the Treasury headed by G. Brown Esq.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2005/07/24/ccom24.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2005/07/24/ixcoms.html
96 Robert. Bravo! It’s so nice when someone answers political platitudes with knowledge. If you get your questions answered I’m sure we’d all be interested in the score!
100. He didn’t believe that the tories such be part of the European Peoples Party. His website explains all http://www.rogerhelmer.com
103. The decision to expell him was wrong (IMHO).
98,102 - Gavin, Roger: thanks. It angers me when people allege that the British education system has been “destroyed”. One is entitled to one’s views on the secondary sector developments which largely replaced the secondary modern schools with comprehensives (and that is largely what they did - only about a third went to grammar schools, yet I have seen precious few laments for the type of school under which most teenagers were educated, but to condemn the current situation tout court seems to me to devalue the efforts and achievements of all those working within it, teachers and students alike.
Having recently been through a rigorous school inspection, and having just finished marking 600 A level scripts, I can offer assurance that those efforts and achievements are considerable. I wonder how many of those who decry our schools have actually been in a position to assess the work they produce, and not just in the academic sense either. Very few schools are ‘failing’.
The last few sentences of my first post were taken directly from the requirements in the mark-scheme I have been using to determine the criteria for an A grade in Government & Politics. Some candidates from a wide variety of schools and colleges fulfilled them, and virtually all made a serious and credit-worthy effort. It would be nice to think that these benchmarks are borne in mind before firing off here, or elsewhere.
I believe that some of the many who do show knowledge and throughtfulness here actually ’survived’ the comprehensive system. One in particular has said so, I think, a brilliant contributor of more than 3,000 posts; and I would take a very large bet that he’s not the only one by a long chalk.
105 - Robert Waller.
I’m sorry, but I have to disagree with much of what you say.
I was at a technical school in the 1960s when it was compulsorily comprehensivised. I saw the damage that it wrought on the kids in that school. I for one will never forgive Labour for destroying lives on the altar of political dogma.
In effect, Labour waged war on the existing education system, and in any war there are winners and losers. Naturally, the winners believe that their war was just, but so did Rome after the Fall of Carthage. However, as in any war, it is the ordinary people who become “collateral damage”.
On another vein, standards have clearly fallen over the last 30 years, as grade inflation has eroded the value of academic achievement. First, it was O-Levels, then A-Levels, and then degrees. Yesterday, I was talking to a university lecturer, who told me that even some PhDs were starting to look iffy.
Yes, many students work hard, but are we really stretching the gifted, are we taking every one to his limits, or are we simply preventing disappointment and disillusionment?
106 Totally agree .. but this insane drive towards 50% University attendance, irrespective of the academic ability of the candidates seems set to intensify.
Never mind the student debt being accumulated based on the false hope of ‘executive’ jobs that will never materialise.
With the myriad of non jobs in the public sector that will still need to be funded, the economy slowing, the Chancellor cheating on his own ‘golden rule’and unemployment creeping up again, directing otherwise unemployed school leavers into a 3/4 year holding pattern will be an absolute necessity.
105. What do you think to the idea that OFSTED inspections should be done at random. When I was at school, I always thought that they were getting a false impression as all the teachers got dressed up and some even made an effort to teach.
If it is confessions time - I was educated in a comprehensive school. They were introduced in my part of the world by a conservative administration on the County Council. The reorganisation plan was approved by a conservative education secretary, a lady by the name of the Thatcher. At the time I arrived the older pupils had begun in the days when it had been a secondary modern (ie they had failed the 11 plus). Their A´level results were better than those at the neighbouring former-Grammar school, where pupils had passed the 11 plus.
108 ‘What do you think to the idea that OFSTED inspections should be done at random.’
OFSTED are changing their method of inspection to a ‘lighter touch’ inspection to validate continuous self assessment, using a short visit with only 2 0r 3 days notice. A step in the right direction IMO.
Toryboy at 107: “this insane drive towards 50% University attendance”…but (a) the suggested figure includes foundation degrees to lead to apprenticeships and (b) it’s already IIRC 46% so the target is not even particularly ambitious, much less insane. There is of course no particular magic about the figure 50% - if the actual figure is 46 or 54 the position will be much the same.
What if ‘events’ blew the Chancellor’s career plan off course?
Seems to have already started with name change from the ‘Iron’ chancellor to the ‘Enron’ Chancellor.
http://www.thebusinessonline.com
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,9061,1535415,00.html
Labour officials want to persuade veteran MPs to retire.
Now I really want to see them to persuade Gwyneth Dunwoody without fearing for their life.
They swear it’s not to get rid of the “awkward squad”, although the majority of them are “old” and in parliament since many years.
All this talk about David Miliband as Labour leader - surely brother Ed is the king in waiting!
115 - “surely brother Ed is the king in waiting” - I still haven’t got over his performance on Newsnight last month.
Who, between the 2005 new Labour intake, could have an important career in the future?
Ed Balls, Ed Miliband and then who?
“Ed Balls, Ed Miliband and then who?” If that is the best of the new new Labour, then maybe our Tories do have a future, despite the comments of Leigh et al.
116: ‘I still haven’t got over his performance on Newsnight last month.’
Yes, wasn’t that a classic? I became devoted to old Ed from that moment on.
119 Hermes Trismegistus Sadly I didn’t see it. What happened?
120: Miliband was unsettlingly - no horrifyingly - weird. Imagine a friendless sixth former who models himself on Tony Benn doing a Mr Bean impression and you’ll get the idea.
121 Thanks….but (speechless at the thought)
Mike, I cannot get your Trackback to work. Here’s link anyway:
http://scotland-politics.blogspot.com/2005/07/scottish-political-blog-roundup-2.html
Nick @ 112
Sorry Nick, but I simply don’t accept the (so called)need for Graduates or University education at these excessive levels.
Let’s not (I mean both of us not being rude !) be semantic whether it’s 46 or 54 %. The poor souls who qualify (be they Physcologists, Philosophers, Golf Course Greenkeepers or Arts & Media Guru’s) are going to be entering a job market that can’t support the expectations around careers and renumeration that they have been led to expect.
As a result, a lot of them will have horrible levels of debt, with no realistic means of paying it off at a time of their life when they should be saving for their future as a result of being trapped in lower paid jobs that they will be forced to accept in the absence of anything else being available.
I find this incredible (cruel, irresponsible and even immoral)at a time where you can get a Sparky, Plumber or builder for love not money.
Surely more pragmatic vocational training and a better direction of our young people to areas of the job market that will genuinely help them prosper with careers is what is needed both for them and society as a whole ??
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