Is Angela Merkel set to be the next German Chancellor?
July 25th, 2005
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Would a Schroeder defeat mean that it’s all change in Europe?
If the polls and the betting markets have the German election right then Angela Merkel’s grouping of Christian Democrats and its Bavarian-based associate party Christian Social Union are on their way to a victory in the national ballot which is now set to take place on September 18th.
The “starting gun” was fired on Thursday when the German President, Horst Koehler, announced that he had agreed to Chancellor Schroeder’s request to bring forward the country’s national election by a year. The early election has been on the cards since May when Schroeder’s ruling Social Democrats were badly beaten in state elections in the party’s traditional heartland of North Rhine-Westphalia.
The latest polls give Merkel’s CDU-CSU grouping 43% with 7% being recorded by the Free Democrats - the likely coalition partner. Shroeder’s SDP is on 26%. The best UK betting price on the CDU-CSU is currently 1/20 - but note that in this market “the winner will be the group that wins the most seats in the Bundestag.” As we get closer to September 18th we expect other markets to emerge.
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A key issue is economic reform and dealing with the country’s soaring unemployment figures currently at 4.7m.
With Europe going through a period of uncertainty following the no votes in the French and Dutch referenda a change in Berlin could have a huge impact on the future direction of the EU. In some quarters Merkel is seen as being an anti-European and clearly she would not have the same close relationship with Jacques Chircac that has been enjoyed by Schroeder. The move would also come at a time when the UK holds the EU presidency and it will be interesting to watch how UK ministers and Tony Blair deal with a changeover in the country with Europe’s biggest economy.
Mike Smithson
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I think that there can be little doubt, barring some sort of political miracle for the incumbent, that Frau Merkel will be the next Chancellor of Germany be it at the head of a Grand Coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD or a more traditional CDU/CSU and FDP coalition.
One hopes the new government under Angela Merkel will have the nerve and fortitude to succeed where Schroeder’s ineffective and incompetent administration failed; to take the steps necessary to stop the rot setting into the German economy and reform it for future success.
I think her rise will be a breath of fresh air in European politics.
Off topic but the white coats a’flapping wing of the Tory party has made a foray into the leadership election.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1707253,00.html
They are all bl**dy nuts in my opinion. Will try and post something a little less tired and emotional in the morning.
Just a snippet that made me lmol…
‘We must seize the centre ground and pull it kicking and screaming towards us. That is the only way to demolish the foundations of the liberal establishment and demonstrate to the electorate the fundamental flaws on which it is based’
Im sure a lot of us would be kicking and screaming if these creatures of the right had sway.
Ah well….we managed to stay on topic for 4 minutes and one post. Not bad!
But, as we’re at it anyhow…. What do you expect, JonW? These people are all good Conservatives with a perfect right to their views, some of which make a lot of sense. I think they have a tendency to be too strident at times, but then don’t we all?
Perhaps you’d rather they all went over and voted for UKIP or someone else? Then where would the Conservative Party be?
I never said we should deny them a chance to make their views known, but surely A.H you want to see the Conservatives back in office sometime within the next 10 years? Do you really think we will ever see a revived party if they become the BNP lite?
6 - BNP-lite? I think you’re going too far with that comment, sir. Supporting traditional family values and being patriotic is not synonymous with being a racist and a homophobe, you know.
I want the Conservative Party back in power as soon as humanly possible, of course - as we all do; but I can assure you we’re not going to get there by alienating our own base or by being Blair-lite either.
The BNP comment was going to far and I withdraw it totally, nevertheless I don’t for the life of me belive that ‘faith, flag and the family’ appeals to anything more than a socially conservative rump who probably disproportionately vote for us anyway.
8 - Now, in that you may well be right, and I’d prefer they kept on voting for us. We’ll see what comes of the leadership contest and what party the direction takes from there. Do I recall saying recently that you support David Cameron?
The rise of the new Left/PDS party is an interesting development for politics in Germany. Looking at the polls it seems they may get between 10% or 15% of the vote and become the largest party in Eastern Germany.
These Left/PDS voters are almost all taken from the SPD and that is why the SPD is stuck in the mid to low 20%. There is a small possibilty that the Green, SPD and Left/PDS could out poll the CDU/CSU and FDP, but a three way leftist coalition is totally out of the question and would do nothing to bring political and especially economic stability to Germany.
This is how I forsee things going in Germany. The CDU/CSU have a good campaign have pull away from the other 4 parties and form a government in it’s own right with partners or the CDU/CSU and FDP is 50% or more and the traditional coalition government is back in power after a 7 years respite or the possibility which looks like it could happen b/c of the creation of the Left/PDS is that the CDU/CSU win the most votes in the election and are the largest party in the German legislature, but not large enough to form a government with FDP so the President Honerst Kolher asks Frau Merkel to begin talks with the SPD(now under new leadership b/c Schroeder will resign after an election defeat)to form grand CDU/CSU and SPD coalition which will not be good for Germanys economic future.
So it looks like the Germans have a decission to make either keep the rotten government they have (which looks impossible now) take a risk and have the new and untested Left/PDS become the kingmakers or vote for the stability of an outright CDU/CSU government or a coalition CDU/CSU and FDP government.
It looks like is going to be a fun couple of weeks.
Also it is importent to remember the the CDU/CSU and FDU have a 2/3 majority in the Bundesrat the German House of Lords that represents the German state governments. So already the CDU/CSU/FDP control half the legislative process.
If anyone is intrested in looking at the polls out of German here is a link:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
Mr. Matlock @ 1:
The failure of Schröder’s government to push though reforms has little to do with a lack of nerve and fortitude, and everything to do with sabotage by the CDU/CSU in the Bundesrat, and by his own awkward squad on the Left in the Bundestag. Schröder has done his best to play an virtually hopeless hand and, IMO, has taken a most honourable course of action in calling for early elections.
Din’t somebody say recently that the CDU has ruled out a grand coalition (which would also be political suicide for the SPD)? My favoured election outcome would by a CDU/Green coalition, but I don’t think the chances of this are that high.
For a quick overview of the personalities involved in the German elections, take a glance at:
http://transcontatlantic.blogspot.com/2005/06/german-federal-elections-players.html
I should disclose that I am a CDU partisan and I am standing has a CDU candidate in the state of Baden Wurttemberg. If anyone is interested almost 2 months out it looks like the CDU will sweep thru all of Baden Wurttenberg taking almost all of the
10. Is correct the new left allience Die Linkspartei or The Party of the Left in english is attracting large amounts of votes especially in Eastern Germany. It is already the third largest party in Germany in the polls surpassing the Greens and the FDP. This was to be expected in my opinion since there was so much division and fighting amongst the Social Democrats over the ecomonic and welfare reforms and many on the left of the party look to Oskar Lafontaine to speak for them.
Ene though there is talk about it in the German media I can say that there will be no grand coalition with the SDP if the CDU/CSU and FDP fail to get an outright majority in the Bundestag. Both Angela Merkel and Edmund Stoiber have ruled out that option. So its either the CDU/CSU governing alone or with the FDP and nothing else.
The CDU/CSU have already released our manfestio and so have the other major parties. Im not going to go into the other parties manfestio promises and platforms but here is a few points from the CDU/CSU programme.
A CDU/CSU government would inact a tax hike and offer relief
> a two percent increase in the value-added tax (VAT), from 16 to 18 percent, which would raise an additional 16 billion euros ($19 billion). That money would be used to cover the shortfall expected after a planned lowering of unemployment benefit contributions, or non-wage labor costs, paid by workers and employers.
Some are unhappy with this prospect but we have decided to cut non-wage labor costs to boost jobs and we can only do that by raising value-added tax so we can act quickly.
Fewer loopholes, subsidies
>A CDU/CSU government plans to lower the top personal income tax rate to 39 percent from 42 percent and the bottom rate from 15 percent to 12 percent on Jan. 1, 2007. The cuts will be financed by cutting subsidies for first-time home buyers and tax breaks for commuters and for bonuses paid for working on Sundays, holidays and on night shifts.
We can only cut the taxes we can offered to cut and still keep the social contract.
Labor-market reform
>Under a CDU/CSU government, it would be easier for small and medium-sized firms to hire and fire workers. For new hires, legal protection against unlawful dismissal would be suspended for companies with 20 workers or fewer. The measure is intended to make companies more willing to take on new staff. Rules would also be put in place making it easier for companies to take on temporary workers. More support would be given for part-time work for people bringing up children or providing nursing care.
The program would make it possible for companies to deviate from sector-wide wage contracts, currently the norm on the German industrial landscape. Firms and workers could agree deals on pay and conditions at the company level.
Foreign policy
> On the foreign policy front, a priority of a CDU/CSU government would be to revitalize Germany’s relationship with the United States and the United Kingdom.
The traditionally close ties between the transatlantic allies have been severely tested due to Germany’s strong and vocal opposition to the US and British-led war in Iraq.
A good transatlantic relationship of trust does not exclude differences of opinion but is based on cooperative dialogue in the spirit of friendship instead of on polemical insults.
The CDU/CSU would work to strengthen NATO and increase the EU’s military capability. We wish apply EU budget rules to the letter, but also support a frugal EU budget that takes into account Germany’s limited capacity. Germany is the largest contributor to the EU budget.
A CDU/CSU government would campaign for a “privileged partnership” for Turkey instead of full EU membership and only take in new EU members, such as Bulgaria and Romania, who strictly meet entry criteria set out by Brussels.
The CDU/CSU believe in the European Union, but it must be reformed.
This is just a little bit of the CDU/CSU manfestio. If you want to learn more visit the CDU http://www.cdu.de or CSU http://www.csu.de websites.
As I understand the German voting system, a party or coalition can expect to get 50% of the seats with slightly less than 50% of the vote, due to votes for parties that don’t get into Bundestag, etc. Does anyone have an estimate of what vote share would suffice? E.g. is 45% of the vote for CDU and FDP likely to give them a working majority? Or more like 48%?
Given that a simple CDU + FDP coalition would be the strongest platform for economic reform, it will be very interesting to see if their combined opinion poll quote stays above 50% (implies the electorate accepts the need for such reform) or dips well below (implies a confused electorate still not ready for serious reform).
In 2002 the SPD and the Greens combine vote was 47% to the CDU/CSU and FDP 46% and the SPD/Green government held a Bundestag majority of 9 counting the speaker of the Bundestag who doesn’t vote.
We Germans are scare of reforms we have become so used to the welfare state. You British now decry the reform measures of Thacther but she did what need to be done for Britian to be successful today, you should look back and be thankful.
“a two percent increase in the value-added tax (VAT), from 16 to 18 percent”
Well thanks a lot! I’m self-employed (with no employees) in Germany, and a 2% VAT rate increase is hardly going to help me sell our products on the domestic market.
“The cuts will be financed by cutting subsidies for first-time home buyers and tax breaks for commuters”
About time too! Er, wasn’t this exactly what the SPD/Greens wanted to do, but was bitterly resisted and ultimately stopped by the CDU?
“The traditionally close ties between the transatlantic allies have been severely tested due to Germany’s strong and vocal opposition to the US and British-led war in Iraq.”
Doing the right thing when your friends are urging you to do otherwise is not easy. Schröder & Fischer showed some backbone here.
“A good transatlantic …(blah, blah) … European Union, but it must be reformed.”
Nothing concrete then.
Heinrich Martz @ 15:
Margaret Thatcher had almost unlimited power to carry out reforms in the 80’s due to the British system of governmant and an opposition in disarray. She also had a massive flow of cash from the newly opened North Sea oil fields with with to finance her plans. Schröder has had neither of these.
While the Thatcher reforms have probably contributed to the current economic success enjoyed by Britain, they are also resulted in a divided society with the associated ills such as high crime rate, high prison population, etc. British workers work longer hours than any other EU member apart from Lithuania, and die younger than those of most of the old EU15 countries.
Are you sure Germany wants another Thatcher?
Welcome to Heinrich - nice to have another practising politician among us. Is your position on the list one that gives you a realistic chance of election?
I hesitate to comment in the face of a domestic expert, but Andrea’s inspiring example, as an Italian who understands the British scene as well as we do, tempts me. The two elements of most interest are probably the extent of changes proposed by the CDU/CSU, which Heinrich has described, and the rise of the Left Party. The latter is entirely normal in a PR system: there is always a ‘market’ for 10% or more who want the progressive wine as undiluted as possible (as someone who hesitated as a teenager whether to join Labour or the Communist Party I know exactly how they feel: I simply decided it wasn’t realistic to push for as much change as the CP wanted). The development has been held back by the “they’re all East Germans” line, and the arrival of Lafontaine has given them the credibility to reach normal levels in the west too: they now have two of the best speakers in German politics leading them. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make further progress in the campaign, even though the alliance is neither especially comfortable (think Benn + Livingstone) or especially coherent in its policies.
However, although most of their votes are coming from the SPD, voters aren’t as neatly left-centre-right as we sometimes think, and they’re getting some votes from everyone and some from people who wouldn’t otherwise vote. This appears to be the main reason why the CDU/CSU/FDP margin in the polls has narrowed to about 50-46. To get an overall majority using PR, you basically need to have more votes than other parties who get 5% or more (there are some exceptions that don’t look relevant this time). If the left/green parties get a few per cent more, there will be no overall CDU/CSU majority, and the choice wlil be a different coalition or a minority government. I don’t know if the CDU/CSU/FDP/Green coalition might be a possibility.
The idea of an SPD/Green/Left coalition has been flatly ruled out by both SPD and Left. Passive support by the Left party of an SPD/Green continuation has not yet been ruled out, though, so far as I know, and this is what happened in several regions (States) before actual SPD/Left coalitions began to emerge.
All in all, a lot more interesting than chewing over whether the Tory MP for Little Nodding has endorsed Rifkind…
Nick Palmer @ 19:
“I don’t know if the CDU/CSU/FDP/Green coalition might be a possibility.”
I certainly wouldn’t rule it out, though Heinrich has must have a better feel for this than me. Although that fight like cats in a bag over the non-mainstream vote, the FDP and Greens are not actually very far apart on policy. They are both socially liberal. If the Greens could curb their radical wing, and the FDP take enviromental considerations into their free-market thinking, they could get on alright, I would have thought.
By the way, welcome from me too Heinrich :).
Please excuse the typos in my last comments *blush*.
I would sound a small note of caution about the emerging conventional wisdom of a projected victory of the CDU/CSU, even with the support of the FDP. It is by no means certain that the CDU/CSU are going to walk this election. The Linkespartei complicates the electoral maths substantially- not just for the SPD but also for the CDU as well in the East. Schroeder is also at his best with his back against the wall in a campaign- so the SPD could recover just enough. The result could well then be a stalemate, with the CDU/CSU-FDP unable to claim an overall majority as the Die Gruenen, Linkespartei and the SPD holding more than 50% of the Bundestag. This election is the result of an initiative by the Chancellor himself, not the opposition- it is on ground of his choosing so don’t count the old fox out just yet.
Re 19. I’m the Tory MP for Little Nodding and I think it is very interesting that I have endorsed Rifkind - and so does Sir Malcolm.
14 Mr Mertz, aren’t we all writing off Schroeder too soon? At this stage last time Stoiber was miles ahead and look what happened?
Also i must ask if Merkerl is being overpromoted here in this Country the sense that Many reforms especially CAP, are likely to be blocked by the CSU and Kohl’s Political Heir, Stoiber?
To achieve ‘All change in Europe’ as per your headline will need all 3 of yesterday’s failures to be replaced namely Schroeder ,Chirac & Blair.
Whilst all 3 have varying degrees of support in their domestic electorates there is a complete lack of trust outside their countries & not surprising given their track records.
2-9: gents, as an interested onlooker to your internal party debate, you have rather neatly characterised the horns of the dilemma on which the Conservative party is now impaled. It is very difficult to imagine a broad pitch that could appeal to the views associated with that particular group that would not see them off into arms of rival parties.
“Faith, flag and family” - now, it seems to me that generally speaking the Conservatives are missing a trick. They need to think more laterally. Christian church-going is in decline, but other religions are still goign strong. Those other religions also have a strong allegiance to the extended family. Its just the flag bit thats missing.
However - the “flag” part of the jigsaw is strong enough to put off large numbers of Minority Ethnic social conervatives from joining the Conservatives. 1.5 million Muslims, I heard, and how many of them vote Conservative? 10% at most.
I think the Tories will eventually have to embrace PR - but are still almost religiously opposed to it at the moment as they see it as a given they will eventually be returned. I don’t though I do expect the next parliament to be hung.
“Combined, tradition, the nation, the family and free enterprise represent the instincts and preoccupations of most Britons and so, unsurprisingly, they have the capacity to inspire. In the USA too, these core conservative issues excite voters. George Bush understands this and wins.”
So in fact, as these guys implicitly admit, “faith, flag and family” would be a position that the Tories have never taken before. a new approach explicitly borrowed from the US Republicans. The key assumption: “if it works in America, it’ll work here”. This is questionable. Certainly I’m pretty sure that over here “faith” is a vote loser, not a winner.
28. and then he implied that Labour and Lindems haven’t this position. If it’s so important, why voters voted for Labour and Libdems?
28. “…over here ‘faith’ is a vote loser, not a winner.” - Think it depends what faith. Isn’t that primarily what Galloway appealed to with great effect…
30. yes, but Galloway used it to win a couple of seats, not the whole election.
Faith, flag and family…hmm, I immediately thought of “Kinder, Kuche, Kirche” from an unlamented era.
Oh dear, having now violated Godwin’s Law, I declare this teutonic thread kaput
31. Agreed - but my point was that if the Conservatives can get the Muslim vote for them rather than against them, it could be enough in the 30 seats that matter to really help them. Clearly apeing the US Republicans wont help them in this strategy, (the reverse if anything), but an appeal to ‘faith’ is potentially a winner if done in the right way. I’ve just no idea how to go about it without losing your core vote.
28 - one of the Shibboleths of the right is that the UK is more like the US than “Yerp”. This myth is perpetuated by the fact that we share a common language.
32 - yes; my thoughts were “Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Fuhrer.”
34 - But in relation to religious beliefs (and I am talking about a traditional christian perspective) the US and UK are polar opposites.
33 - that’s exactly the point I was making, Lennon. But the Tory party membership and its core vote is not exactly welcoming - read the Daily Mail if you don’t beleieve me.
33. Oh, I agree, and dont believe for a moment that the Torys would go for it, just making the point that perhaps they should think about it.
35. Not sure about Polar opposites - the UK, even on Christian perspective, is much more religous and church-going than say France, which is almost entirely secular.
35 - I think this is the one giant difference between the US and UK. What is really staggering is how few people in the US will be openly non-religious (though I did work somewhere in New Jersey where I saw an A7HE1S7 number plate in the car park).
Sorry, 33 should say 36 - not really talking to myself…
35 - exactly, you’re making my point for me
It was predicated on the idea that US society is actually quite vindictive (in the Old Testament sense of an eye for an eye), whereas European societies tend towards rehabilitation?
36 - Tabman, how can you possibly make thet kind of sweeping generlisation about the Tory membership. The idea that we all recoil at the thought of a Black or Asian person joining the local assosiation just isn’t true.
And who cares what Edward Leigh thinks. He’s not an important figure. About as representative of the Tory party as a Jenny Tongue is of the Liberals or Kate Hoey is of the Labour party. This is like the thing about the Bromley councillors a few days ago. The comments of an unrepresentive figure are picked up so they can be used for a bit of good old fashioned Tory bashing.
41. The difference is that the Libdems tell to Jenny Tonge to shut up and Labour makes the same with Clare Short, while the majority of tories don’t say nothing about what Leigh says.
22 One thing we can do is count the old fox out. CDU/CSU/FDP coalition he’s out. CDU/FDP/Green coalition he’s out. CDU/SDP coalition he’s out( larger party provides the Chasncellor) SDP/Links/Green coalition he’s out( the Links bloc would never accept a coalition with him as SDP leader. Finally SDP/Green coalition sustained by Links. He’s out. The Links bloc will not sustain him. I don’t think you realise how much anger there is in the SDP towards Schroeder. He’ll retire immediately after the election or get thrown out by his Party.
In fact no-one finds the Grand coalition idea very appetising so when it comes to it I have no doubt that the CDU/CSU/FDP will get a majority. Thank God. Roll on Spring 2007 and Sarkozy. Things won’t be perfect in Europe but a whole lot better than they are now. Even in Italy I regret to say that Prodi will be better than Berlusconi.
35 - Yes. Christianity in the US is, or appears to be, dominated by the evangelical Christian right (perhaps they’re just the loudest - at any rate, they’re in power). In the UK, evangelicals are a small minority, outnumbered by the relatively placid C of E and the leftish Methodists. The Archbishop of Canterbury is an agnostic, for God’s sake! (inexcusable and slightly confusing pun - sorry). So not only is religious belief less agressive in the UK, but there are so many diverse strands that one can’t simply campaign on “faith” without either being exclusive or terribly vague.
[44] an agnostic, for God’s sake - many a true word said in jest, Melv
43.”Even in Italy I regret to say that Prodi will be better than Berlusconi. ”
Prodi’s vision of Europe is different from the British one. He attacked Blair after his EU Parliament speech saying Blair is all talks, but no action.
The extremist vindictive small minded nasty party, if the writning of their supporters on this thread is indicative, are the LibDems. Anything not ‘liberal’ is to be attacked as small minded or even fascist.
47 - the only person to have used the word “fascist” is you, blue2win.
Book Value What the is the @Ein Volk…’ quote by Tabman implying? Or the ““Kinder, Kuche, Kirche” from an unlamented era” by John O at 32.
41 , Max . The trouble with Leigh and the “certainly more than 25 MP’s we represent” is that he reinforces the notion that the Tories haven’t moved into the 21st Century . Leigh is popping up all the media this morning and he and his chums will almost certainly continue to advance their agenda over the coming months in a high profile manner . It’s frustrating for the modernising tendency in the party but until the leadership is settled this factional infighting for the soul of the will continue .
BTW our nuptials at Bromley will have to wait. The wife insists she willn’t give me a divorce unless you and I do the deed at Skibo Castle with her giving me away !! As she said :
“I’ve been trying to get shot of you for over 20 years , I might as well get a decent weekend out of it ” Charming !!.
47 - the difference is that whilst I may not like your views, I respect your view to hold them and live accordingly. OTOH any absolutist wants to impose their views on me and make me live according to their views.
49 - John O is a Tory. Perhaps for not much longer …
49 - John O is a Conservative and Tabman was taking up his point.
47 - Where did that come from? I’ve noticed nothing of the sort. Persecution mania is understandable from an endangered species - and no, I’m not a LibDem
50.” Leigh is popping up all the media this morning and he and his chums will almost certainly continue to advance their agenda over the coming months in a high profile manner ”
One thing I noticed is that, while the media don’t pay a lot of attention to Labour hard-left, they pay a lot of attention to those tories and this makes someone think that they’re the real tories (and that all the tories are like them).
Yew - Jack - and particularly the BBC who would love to present him as the face of the Conservative party (and not just literally!). Leigh is a practising Roman Catholic (of which I doubt there are many in the party) and is entitled to his view and they should certainly be heard. It would be ludicrous if these views were not represented in a national parliament. But for people to pretend that this is a road the next leader will even consider going down is wishful thinking on our opponents behalf.
55 - Well….
Proportion of Labour MPs who are members of the hard-left Campaign group: 24/356 = 6.7%
Proportion of Tory MPs who are members of the hard-right Cornerstone group: 25/198 = 12.6 %
Also, the Tories are having a leadership election, so all wings are having their say. When the Labour leadership comes up I’m sure we’ll see plenty of Alan Simpson and Dennis Skinner.
56 - Max, Catholic or not, I think it is hard to argue that Leigh is not a figure representing a very substantial body of opinion in the Conservative Party.
BTW I met him recently and noticed that he uses very old photographs of himself.
Not to mention Lazarus
52 - I am indeed a Conservative of longstanding (signed up by Mr. Balfour himself), and fully expect to remain blue-in-the-face for some time yet..
60 a feral conservative IIRC
57. I’m happy to see Alan Simpson more, but please not Clare Short.
Btw the Campaign Group MPs are 25 (your point doesn’t change anyway).
“Also, the Tories are having a leadership election, so all wings are having their say. When the Labour leadership comes up I’m sure we’ll see plenty of Alan Simpson and Dennis Skinner”
but even during the campaign I noticed that when a tory MP said something different from the official manifesto,the medias immediately attacked the tories (they’re divided or they’ve a secret agenda), while for ex. nothing was said about the fact that Glenda Jackson claimed not to have read Labour manifesto (she didn’t need Milburn to know what Labour’s values are).
Tabman and Book Value Perhaps a little strong from me, but if you read your post Tabman it seeems that anything goes to attack the Tories as nasty or extremist. Whether John O is a Tory of not, he did not quote that slogan from the Thirties (post 32) to characterise Edward Leigh (whom I carry no bags for at all) and his wing of the Tory party. What other conclusion can I draw when you say at post 34 that as a consequence of Leigh’s slogan of Faith, flag and family “my thoughts were “Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Fuhrer.”
As someone more famous said, i will defdend your freedom top say what you will, but I will not defend what you say and how you say it.
If he represents a ’substantial body of opininion’ how come only one of the leadership candidates (Fox who has no chance), shares views even close to his.
It may surprise some on this site but we’d quite like to win the next election. To adopt his ideas would be electoral suicide and because it is not representitive of the party it will not happen.
56 , Max . Have we had our first tiff !! and what is this “yew” . I know I’m a bit wooden but I’d prefer a native Scottish tree such as hazel ….. but then calling me Hazel would cause complications !!
Anyway , I don’t doubt Leigh’s right to be in the Tory party but I don’t want Leigh to be the future of or seen to be future of the Tories . We need an effective opposition and alternative government , but we will not get it if Leigh and his merry band exercise undue influence in the party . Btw it’s not just the Beeb reporting the Leigh manifesto , it’s all over the print and broadcast media today .
On the German election I think it remarkable how many parallels there are with the early Thatcher years in the UK. Right of centre party led by first woman leader looks like winning because of a major split in the left of centry party (yes I know that the Labour/SDP split took place after Thatcher’s first victory). Left of centre splinter allies with existing no-hope party to create a new alliance which has no hope of power but every prospect of allowing prolonged right of centre government.
On UK politics I always think that when a policitian starts talking about family, faith, family etc (shouldn’t there be something in there about mom’s apple pie?) he’s got no policies.
61. Verily, and with fangs to match…and there’s little danger of ever being out-Foxed
Andrea I realise thar Prodi doesn’t share the UK’s views on Europe but Berlusconi has been an embarrassment to Italy throughout his tenure. The Italian Foreign Ministry simply wrings it’s hands when asked to explain his various utterances. And then there are the regular ennuis judiciaires. I particularly dislike his fawning attitude to the ghastly Putin.
64 - Max, It seems to me axiomatic that a Conservative Party will include people who believe such things: this is what conservatism is all about (plus protecting privilege). Agreed many people with a more modern agenda have also joined the party. Perhaps they are a majority. But I don´t think you can dismiss Leigh as an irritant on the extremes of the Party.
67 - Pleased to hear it. I´m all for a little tribalism!
64.”It may surprise some on this site but we’d quite like to win the next election. To adopt his ideas would be electoral suicide and because it is not representitive of the party it will not happen. ”
Well, if I’ve understood well, some of the tories posters here agree with Leigh.
Max, are you young, right? Maybe the difference is that, between new young members, Leigh’s policies haven’t a great appeal, while between older members they’ve a stronger appeal.
62 - I think you may be right to some extent but a lot of it is about individual cases. Yes, the media jumped on Howard Flight, but he was a senior Tory MP claiming that the Tories were going to cut more from the public services than they publicly stated. By contrast, Glenda Jackson ranting is pretty small beer.
71 - I’m 24 Andrea. But having said that I’ve not come across other members (older and younger) who think that this is the way forward for the party, and that includes a couple of Elders in the Kirk.
I don’t think many Conservatives on this site (i’m thinking of myself, Sophia and John O) have said they support his agenda, more that he has a right to say it.
Edward Leigh rescues the Tory party !! :
http://www.giantsandgirls.com/images/modern/monstercamp2.jpg
On a dramatically tone-lowering note, does anyone else think Merkel is pretty darned hot?
73 - I haven’t had a chance to read the pamphlet yet, but I have printed off a copy to browse later. As a purely superficial reaction, I must confess to having recoiled slightly when I noticed that page 2 comprises two biblical quotations: Isaiah 28:16 and Mark 12:10. Now, I’m 27, a Conservative, an Anglican, and I studied philosophy and theology at uni, but I seem to have an instinctive reaction against overly pushing a religious agenda in politics. I’m not sure I can explain why. Maybe it’s as simple as ‘why do you get to decide what my faith says about this?’ I need to read the pamphlet before I can really make a judgement, but from what I’ve heard so far I think Mr Leigh and I probably have a different understanding of some Christian principles.
75 - I am sure lots of people said the same thing about Thatcher in 1975.
75 - No. Thats just wrong!
The only hot politician in the UK is the lovely Laura-Anne Jones from the Welsh Assembly.
63 - Blue2win. Read my post at 28. What I’m arguing there, is that the Tory party would seem to be the natural home of many Minority Ethnic people, who would go along with two out of three (and in some cases all three) of “Faith, flag, family.”
So - why are they not doing so?
Coming at it from the other side, were you to read the Daily Mail you could see that that paper has an agenda and mindset that is, to say the least, distrustful of “foreigners” (which includes to a large extent non-white British people).
What is the largest group of people who reads the DM? Tory voters and sympathisers, of whom a great many will also be Tory members. And it is a well known phenomenon that party memberships tend on the whole to be more extreme than the voters whom they represent.
Therefore, if EM voters do not sympathise with the Tory party for whom they share many common philosophical and social viewpoints, why is that?
The evidence of the DM is that there is, or is perceived to be, a lack of welcome for them in the Tory party.
Now I realise that there is a difference between reality and perception - but to change perception you have to promote the reality (where it is different fromthe perception), and the likes of Leigh and his ilk do not promote the perception that the Tories are a party of relaxed social liberalism.
I am happy to be persuaded otherwise.
73. I don’t doubt that all the tories aren’t like Edward Leigh. I was only thinking that maybe old people are more socially conservatives because when they grew up some things were unacceptable (homosexuality was an illness, single mothers were very sinful). If you look at the more socially conservatives Labour MPs, other than the very religious ones, you find some of the oldest (Gwyneth Dunwoody and Bob Wareing).
72. yes, I understand your point.
Does someone know what happened during the campaign between Bob Marshall Andrews and his tories opponent? During his speech after the declaration,he refused to thank him (he added something like “my views on that particular individual are already known and I won’t repeat them here):
Melv [75] - go away and wash your mouth out… mind you, I don’t disagree… all the German politicians look more inspiring than our lot, probably distance lands enchantment to the view…
Typo in [81] - should be “lends enchantment…”
76 - Now, I’m 27, a Conservative, an Anglican, and I studied philosophy and theology at uni, but I seem to have an instinctive reaction against overly pushing a religious agenda in politics.
Exactly - so what reaction would an atheist.agnostic non-politically-aligned person have?
75. Choose the best looking one (and the best couple):
Angela Merkel:
http://cache.gettyimages.com/comp/51114742.jpg?x=x&dasite=MS_GINS&ef=2&ev=1&dareq=E2399169AC85D6DE9A21091711E5AD1E1B9DB4AA36BF42577757C85AE85A779B
Gerard Schroeder:
http://cache.gettyimages.com/comp/53202537.jpg?x=x&dasite=MS_GINS&ef=2&ev=1&dareq=E2399169AC85D6DE9A21091711E5AD1E8B6C42D5A8F324E07757C85AE85A779B
Guido Westerwelle:
http://cache.gettyimages.com/comp/53162522.jpg?x=x&dasite=MS_GINS&ef=2&ev=1&dareq=E2399169AC85D6DE9A21091711E5AD1E5B908793286614607757C85AE85A779B
Joschka Fischer:
http://img.stern.de/_content/52/69/526903/fi250_250.jpg
Oskar Lafontaine:
http://www.wdr.de/tv/menschen-hautnah/image/oskar.jpg
80 -Bob Marshall Andrews was virtually libelled by his conservative opponent who put out leaflets implying that BMA spent months out of the country, working as a barrister. I believe he did this - rather effectively - by reprinting something BMA had said, but not dating it. If he had included the date it would have been obvious that the time he spent out of the country pre-dated his election as MP.
81: That is the most flattering picture of Angela Merkel I have ever seen - probably a Photoshop touch-up job. Also, I doubt that the UK has many politicians as ugly as Rudolph Scharping or Günther Verheugen.
I think a lot of this is incestuous, Beltway, middle-class metrosexual bullsh*t (and I speak as a libertarian metropolitan). It’s also studiously ignoring what is going on around us Right Now.
The bombs and the outrages change everything: they confirm what some have long suspected. We are seeing the headlong collapse of multiculturalism, there’s a sense of immigration being out control (the poor dead Stockwell guy was an illegal, it turns out), people are starting to care about the hollowing-out of Britishness, they’ve also noticed the apartheid seperation in our northern cities, and the inability of many on the liberal-left to grasp the true threat from radical Islam…
All this, I think, presents a sudden and unexpected open goal to the Tory Party that wants to do ‘faith, flag and family’.
If these bombings continue (IF..) I believe the country will swing pretty fiercely to the Right, to a party prepared to defend Britishness, not just Britain. Dooesn’t that rightward swing happen in all societies under violent attack?
I know you guys don’t like talking about ‘the incidents’ - but sometimes your stoic silence looks like denial. All this horror is gonna change Britain. I think the Tories are starting to suspect they can benefit….
75. Choose the best one (and the best couple):
Merkel:
http://cache.gettyimages.com/comp/51114742.jpg?x=x&dasite=MS_GINS&ef=2&ev=1&dareq=E2399169AC85D6DE9A21091711E5AD1E1B9DB4AA36BF42577757C85AE85A779B
Schroeder:
http://cache.gettyimages.com/comp/53202537.jpg?x=x&dasite=MS_GINS&ef=2&ev=1&dareq=E2399169AC85D6DE9A21091711E5AD1E8B6C42D5A8F324E07757C85AE85A779B
Westerwelle:
http://cache.gettyimages.com/comp/53162522.jpg?x=x&dasite=MS_GINS&ef=2&ev=1&dareq=E2399169AC85D6DE9A21091711E5AD1E5B908793286614607757C85AE85A779B
Fischer:
http://cache.gettyimages.com/comp/51805969.jpg?x=x&dasite=MS_GINS&ef=2&ev=1&dareq=BE815FD6B606093B63CC108A907C734BA9C30E9B9B114CE8
76 - Anyone got a link to the Pamphlet (or a post number above if I’ve been particularly blind…) Really curious how it incorporated those 2 bible verses in a way that didn’t compare the group to Christ, even inadvertantly…
76: Religion in politics - I love the majestic put-down that the Archbishop of Canterbury delivered when all three party leaders were playing up their churchgoing credentials: “If I was flying to America I would be pleased to learn that the pilot was a believer, but I would be more concerned with whether he could fly”.
I’ve personally found that church groups, even quite evangelical ones, are relaxed about my absence of belief - they just feel sorry for me and hope I’ll see the light one day.
Andrea at 80: I believe that the Tories in Medway put out a leaflet showing the Hong Kong Times announcing that Bob Marshall-Andrews was visiting for a month in May. They said that this showed what contempt he had for voters - as soon as the election was over, off he’d go to HK. They carefully suppressed the fact that the cutting was 5 years old! One of the stupidest dirty tricks I’ve heard of - certain to be found out, and even as a dyed-in-the-wool party loyalist I’d refuse to vote for anyone who did something like that in my own party.
87 - http://conservativehome.com/pdfs/leigh.pdf is the link for the pamphlet. The group Edward Leigh is involved with calls itself Cornerstone, apparently. It does seem a bit egotistical to say the least.
84. Thanks Peter. BMA thanked the Libdem and the UKIP candidates for their “hard but fair campaign” and then he refused to talk about the tory candidate. So I suspected that something happened during the campaign.
86. I forgot Lafontaine:
http://cache.gettyimages.com/comp/53066726.jpg?x=x&dasite=MS_GINS&ef=2&ev=1&dareq=46F9E1EC3E3E81DF9EAC2A80AE5B67C2A9C30E9B9B114CE8
Dear Tabman
In Bury South we have a number of young black British chaps and a chappess in the party, Infact Ivan Lewis M.P always attempts to convert them to labour on election counts, When I asked a Labour party member why they came out with an answer that sickened me ‘oh we could do with a few black man in the party’. We even have Black and Asian young members in Northampton South (Brian Binley was a signature on the piece). In fact when I left Northampton a 21yr old Black gay man was elected in my place as Chairman of the Conservative Future, with that position he is given a seat on the management executive. As a conservative moderate I have to say that although I find the moralising brigade to be a bit heavy for my taste, they are still the most accomadating never patrionising unlike the modernisers, they just treat everyone as equals.
“Liberalism is so dominant that it has managed to infect the Conservative Party like a virus…we must seize the centre and pull it kicking and screaming towards us. that is the only way to demolish the foundations of the Liberal establishment” E Leigh.
I´ll be interested to hear which of the Conservative posters identifies themselves as cornerstone and whcih as virus.
91,.”they just treat everyone as equals”
Actually Leigh once implied that homosexual people are not moral equal to heterosexual people (his exact words were: “there is no moral equivalence between homosexuality and heterosexuality”).
It doesn’t seem he treats all as equals.
88. Thanks, They aren’t even able to do effective dirty tricks.
Andrea
I have had no personal experience of Leigh, so I can’t comment. It is not a message I would subscribe to though. However, with BMA, with the leaflet I would not have voted for the otry with that leaflet, prob gone UKIP.
Although I have to say with your last comment you make it sound like we are the party of Dirty tricks, I’m affraid all the parties do it, Labour and the tories though are by and large not the worst offenders though.
93 & 92. If that’s one of his quotes then I guess I’m a virus.
94. I know all parties made dirty tricks, but the other parties are better than the tories to do them.
96 - Quite happy to call myself a virus! And who are the other 10 MP’s who are part of ‘Cornerstone’? They only list 15 after the article.
68. Schroeder’s attitude to the ghastly Putin is even worse…we desperately need to see the back of him. Very reassured to see Merkel plans to take a tougher line, although I’m sure there will be all sorts of interests pressing her not to.
My apologises Andrea. I misread your post. Yes your quiet right, were positively hopeless at dirty tricks and even if we were good we would get half (inc. me) of the party ranting about how unhonourable it is. Pretty old fashioned lot in Bury.
68. Schroeder’s attitude to the ghastly Putin is even worse…I desperately want to see the back of him. Very reassured to see Merkel plans to take a tougher line, although I’m sure there will be all sorts of investment interests pressing her not to so they can make a quick buck at the expense of the EU’s long-term energy security (not to mention Russia’s own future).
75 - I will just say she is no Caroline Flint.
Just for the benefit of the liberal viruses infecting the conservative body politic. The first link below is to a report on the publication of this document, with the pricture of Leigh most often used
http://www.politics.co.uk/party-politics.htm
The next is how he looked at least four years ago
http://www.edwardleigh.net/gallery.php
And I´m afraid I´ve been unable to find anything more recent.
I see the Cornerstone group believe that both Fox and Davis are acceptable candidates for the leadership.
101 - I thought she was a Tory - then noticed the tiny rose down the bottom of the page …
Trivia question: at which point in history were most present and past PMs alive at the same time?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4713911.stm
Presently there are only 3 (Major, Thatcher, Blair) but not long ago there were 5.
As a young Tory, I think Leigh is barking up the wrong tree. The rpoblem with this part of the party is they don’t have a grasp of reality. america and the UK are totally different politically. If you try to campiagn on a religous agenda in most of the UK, you would be laughed out of time. Alan Duncan was entirly right about the Tory Taliban I’m afraid. We’ll never get back into power until we stop moralising about peoples lifestyles and present proactive policies which will appeal rather than reactive policies which attract a minoroty but to the rest of the electrate make us look like a bunch of moaning old grotchs.
P.S 75 very nice.
104 Not long ago there were 6 (Callaghan, Wilson and Heath).
106 - i wonder how many future PMs there are around?
Someone earlier said that Britain was a more churchy society than France. It may be nominally a religious state unlike France but I don’t think this is true. I believe that our religious participation rate is actually lower than some countries where religion was prohibited, and is the lowest in Europe bar Denmark.
Of course if you ask people whether they believe in god or not you get well over 50% - but if I really believed in god I would be daft not to go to church.
106 - Wilson died in 1995, before Blair was PM - or rather, before Major was a former PM.
106 , Tabman . In 1976 there were 6 - Eden , MacMillan , Wilson , Heath , D-Home and Callaghan . Eden died in 76 . Thathcher in 79 brought the total back to 6 . Supermac died in 86 back to 5 until Major upto 6 again in 1990. A D-Home died in 95 - down to 5 until Blair upto 6 again in 97.
110 - weren’t there only 4 after Home and Wilson had died in 1995? Heath, Callaghan, Thatcher and Major.
109 - Yes (doesn´t time fly!).
As Jack says, several points at which you can get to 6. I think to beat that you are looking at 1783 or 1850something…
108 - It was me, and I hold by my comment. There are many people that go to church in this country, and despite the media bias that says otherwise the church is actually growing. Obviously it is growing faster in Eastern Europe (persecution has this effect, the church in China is banned and still phenomenally fast growing). I suspect (but dont know) that the difference occurs in that in France, when asked people who dont go to church will still say they are Catholic, but here even people who do go to church dont usually say so.
Surely very few Conservative posters will agree with the Leigh thesis? And I have to agree with Max at 97- I’m happy to be a part of a modern, outward looking party.
Leigh, being a man of intelligence, should understand the antithesis of his pamphlet- that a section of the party are trying to articulate; namely that if you attack sections of society (albeit using the leitmotif of trying to ‘help’ them’) they will not vote for you even if they embrace the idea of liberal economics which the party is, undoubtedly, supposed to stand for.
“even if they embrace the idea of liberal economics which the party is, undoubtedly, supposed to stand for”
Historically this is not what the Conservative Party has stood for - not before Peel, not after the spit with Peelites, not at the end of the 19th Century/beginning of the 20th Century, not in the 1930s, and not in the 1950s. In all the earlier periods the conservative Party was protectionist. In the latter period it believed in Butskellism and an acitvist industrial party. But flag faith and privilege have been ever present.
99. No problems at all.
97. Who are the ones listed?
Woody at 105- I think you are spot on.
A.H. at 9- in an order of preference I would like to see any of Ken Clarke, David Cameron, David Willetts or, at a push, Theresa May become leader in November.
I would throw away my membership card if Liam Fox became leader.
David Davis probably has a greater understanding of the problems the party faces if it is win in 2009 than most people give him credit for. Nevertheless I would prefer to see any of the above 4 win.
108. less than 50% now say they believe in god according to this YouGov/Telegraph poll: http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/STI040101003_2.pdf
115- granted Peter. However I was refering to recent history 1979-1990 when the party was at its most influential and revolutionary, you can hardly describe that period as a continuation of corporatist malaise.
112 , Peter . In May 1923 when Baldwin became PM there was also 6 - Roseberry , Balfour , Asquith , L-George and Bonar-Law . The latter died in October 1923 down to 5 until Ramsey Mac took office in early 1924 back to 6 . Asquith died in 28 , Roseberry in 29 and Balfour in 30 . Not until Sunny Jim in 76 did the total rise to 6 again .
119 - But neither can you reject the previous 200 years! (And even the Thatcher years were more corporatist than they first appear - were not Thatcher’s biggest supporters busy selling asphalt to the State?)
Does anyone in your house (apart from children) pray regularly?
No 73%
Only 21% of people regard Christmas as primarily a religious festival.
47% do not believe in prayer.
However… 41% of people regret that we are becoming a more secular society compared to 30% who welcome it.
I wish the Cornerstone group well. This is exactly the sort of reactionary headbanging nonsense that would ensure the Tories demise.
I can’t see any serious leadership contender endorsing this stuff but having said that I suspect (despite Max’s protestations) that it speaks for a large proportion of the tory party (how else did IDS manage to win?). I wouldn’t be surprised if Cornerstone played an important role in mobilising socially conservative grassroots Tory activists and as such have some impact on the leadership race.
118 - It’s an interesting survey, even if it does seem slightly contradictory in places.
I was intrigued by the qualification ‘apart from children’ in the question about praying regularly. Do people who don’t pray themselves make their children pray?
121- In the same way you can’t draw comparisons between the Labour party of 1945 and the Labour party today, or the Liberal party of 1911 and the Liberal party today- you can’t compare the party of Peel and Disraeli with the party of Thatcher. I fully accept that between 1979-1981 the Conservative party acted slowly and cautiously, however you cannot say the same after 1985. In the end it is the legacy that matters not the slowly-slowly approach of the early years.
123.”I wish the Cornerstone group well. This is exactly the sort of reactionary headbanging nonsense that would ensure the Tories demise.”
and lots of votes to the libdems
124 - this is a funny one. My mum, despite not really believing herself, seemed to think that it was “proper” for me to be brought up with a Christian belief. It didn’t last beyond infant school, though.
A more mind-bending one for trivia fiends as when there have been the largest/smallest numbers of past, present and future PMs alive. Of course you can only play that game up to I guess the mid-50s (earlier if you are a Clarke/Rifkind fan) because beyond then it is pure speculation as to how many future PMs are alive.
123- Not all of us are reactionary headbangers. However it is a cause of worry that an eighth (!!) of the Parliamentary party are.
125- It was Thatcher who came up sith Clause 28: Major who wanted a return to Victorain Values. What a selective memeory you have!
114 - Jon W, other than AHM, who gave qualified support I don’t think any of the Conservative posters on this site have agreed with it. It has no relevance, historic or otherwise to what the party is about. Personally I think Leigh is as mad as a bag of squirells, and I doubt that him, and his supporters have much chance of shaping the parties future.
Incidentally I heard supporters of David Cameron referred to as ‘Cameronians’ (as in the famous Scottish Rifle regiment). Apparently this name has religious overtones, so we better make sure not to upset too many liberals by using that phrase!
Another young Tory who disagrees with this Cornerstone group here. Although, as an atheist perhaps that not surprising. I would like to see more “flag” though (Red v Blue fleets, i mean really!)
Isn’t Cameron a Scottish name? In fact his full name is David William Donald Cameron - Donald, he must have Scottish roots.
On the Edward Leigh case, I have seen a photo him when he was president of the Durham Union Society and he hasn’t changed much in terms of appearance. In terms of the groups views, I do agree with a lot of what they say especially on tax and patriotism, though not all (I take a liberal line on immigration and homosexuality). Though this is probably because I would feel more at home in the republican party than the Tories. However just because I am right winger, does not mean I will back a right winger in the contest. Indeed like many on the right in the party I suspect I want to find someone who will return us to power. After all the Tories in recent times have always more radical in government than in opposition. For this reason I will not back Fox or Davis. Instead I will probably back Cameron.
125- Back to Basics was never a call to a return of Victorian values, that was a media misconception. Even the Minister who brought in the legislation that enacted Clause 28 recently admitted (with hindsight) it was a mistake. I’m sure you don’t need me telling you who that Minister was.
110. Of course, in 1976 Callaghan wasn’t yet a former PM. In Baldwin’s second term you can get to six (Rosebery, Balfour, Asquith, Lloyd George, Baldwin, MacDonald) by using the dubious sleight-of-hand of treating Baldwin as a former PM, having served briefly upon Bonar Law’s death. I think that six will be hard to beat.
It’s a shame that all us Tories on here aren’t running the party. Stand a much better chance of getting back into power than the Edward Leighs of this world.
137 - Yes, it’s something of a worry. Especially when the MPs want to select the leader themselves because the rest of us are clearly out of touch with the country at large…
On fewest Premiers and ex-Premiers …
For the last few months of Churchill’s wartime Premiership, there were only two: Churchill as the current one, and Bald