Will David Davis get hit by the favourite’s “curse”?
July 26th, 2005
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How long will the smiles last?
One of the rules of Tory leadership contests is that the early favourite never wins. We thought that the Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, was going to buck this trend as the money piled on him during June and early July pushing the implied probability represented by his betting price to nearly 62%.
This has moved back sharply and is only just above evens - at a 52% chance. We’ve observed before in this race how Davis is a much firmer favourite where the bookmakers set the price and not punters - as happens with a betting exchange. This has been true with Betfair and is happening with Tradesports - the Dublin-based exchange which also has a market. Because the exchange price is based on what real gamblers are prepared to risk it is probably a better guide to how betting opinion is moving than the standard bookie odds.
What is happening is that individual punters are prepared to accept bets on Davis at prices which are substantially better for the backer than those offered by the bookies. The punter view of Davis is that he’s a 52% chance while the bookmakers won’t take a bet at less than 60%.
The clear challenger is the young Shadow Education Secretary, David Cameron, where the price has moved up to one that represents a 22% implied probability of success - the highest it has ever been.
Although we have not had an article for several days on the Tory leadership almost all of our discussion threads seem to go in this direction and there have been a number of developments including Alan Duncan’s warning about the “Tory Taliban” and the launch of the “Cornerstone Group”.
The Tory blogger and operator of UK Polling Report, Anthony Wells, has produced a detailed analysis under the title “How deep a hole are the Conservatives in?” which sets out lucidly where they stand electorally - and it looks quite bleak.
So whoever comes out as the eventual winner of this contest has a big challenge getting to Downing Street.
Mike Smithson
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It is very simple the problems that face the Conservative Party even to an outsider like myself. The problem is New Labour and the economy.
The fact is that the British economy is pretty good, unemployment in Britian is one of the lowest in all the European Union, interest rates are steady, there is no sign of inflation and growth is excellent.
In 1998 the CDU/CSU were heavily defeated after 16 years in government and faced many of the problems the Conservatives faced. Thankfully the SPD management of the ecomony over the last 7 years and the divisions with the SPD have help the CDU/CSU make a quick recovery.
Maybe it will take the Conservatives a little more time to recover, but everything counts on the economy and the mood of the electorate. Remember nothing good last forever and English people will soon grow tired of New Labour just like they grew tired of the Conservatives.
Its just a matter of time.
I note that Ken Clarke is back to more or less the same odds on Betfair (12.5/1) as just after the French referendum.
May I also suggest that the Conservative elect a young leader and stick with that leader for a period of time even after a possible election defeat in 2010.
Heinrich,
The Tories have a number of other problems not faced by CDU/CSU. The British electoral system, which for so many years favoured the Tories is now working against them.
German parties don’t have to worry about the geographical distribution of their vote like British ones do. The Tories are simply not in contention to win in enough seats to win an overall majority, even with a reasonable lead in the % vote.
The CDU can rely on the likely support of the FDP. The British Lib Dems are a much stronger party than the FDP, and a Tory/Lib Dem coalition looks a long, long way away. There is a tradition of coalition government in Germany to which the CDU are accustomed, the British Tories haven’t begun to get their heads round the idea of working with other parties in government.
When people do get tired of new Labour (as they already have) the Lib Dems present an alternative choice for voters which the FDP doesn’t present (to the same degree) in Germany.
You are right than one day people will be tired of New Labour (many already are), but there is not the guarantee in Britain that the Tories will benefit like CDU/CSU in Germany.
You are right, Richard. Love them or loathe them, it looks like we are stuck with Labour for a while yet. The conservatives are paying a very high price for their infighting.
I am sure this has been mentioned already, but while I was travelling home last night, I noticed the following in the Londoner’s Diary section of the Evening Standard (unfortunately I do not have a scanner):
“Speaking ill of the dead
Good to see that the death of Sir Edward Heath has inspired such touching tributes from the Tory faithful.
‘Ted Heath was a disastrous Prime Minister and a bitter old man. He will not be missed!’ writes Richard Wills, Conservative candidate for Sutton and Cheam, on the politicalbetting.com internet chatroom.
‘He took us into the EEC, he messed up the counties, he abolished more grammar schools than before. Hew as weak and spineless. He was so bad that he canvassed from his car while getting others to door knock for him. As you may have gathered I hold him in contempt.’
So much for Tory unity.”
6 - Yes, guess that was inevitable. I wonder if Rik has been ‘advised’ against commenting here. That would be a real shame. I’m sure he’s still lurking out there itching to re-enter the fray, but possibly unsure how to resume service…
6. Bit of an own goal by Rik there.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, until the Tories offer a positive vision. All these reactive policies make us look like the political equivilent of Victor Meldrew.
John O, that would make sense. We haven’t heard anything from Rik since that incident. Poor Rik!
John O, that would make sense. We haven’t heard anything from Rik since that incident. Poor Rik!
In the absense of recession or unemployment, both Tories and Lib Dems need to persuade people that something is going wrong with the economy that convinces people they can do better. Failing that, opposition parties need to be able to give an account of significant changes they’d make in public spending, which is relatively easy; and preferably something about public service management. But really, it’s the economy stupid.
I don’t see any reason why David Davies can’t win an election from the right if the economy goes belly up, and he presents a compelling alternative on the main policy areas. And I think the Tories will pick him.
Rik might like to choose another name and comment anonymously? Even if we can’t benefit from knowing who he is it would be good to have his comments.
11 - “I don’t see any reason why David Davies can’t win an election from the right if the economy goes belly up, and he presents a compelling alternative on the main policy areas. And I think the Tories will pick him.”
Which reminds of what Max Hastings said in the Guardian yesterday:
“Yet Davis’s gifts seem, to some of us, appealing to the electorate only in circumstances of national crisis. It is easy to imagine that in 2009 the nation will face problems more severe than today’s. However, it is harder to be convinced that they will look so grave as to make nastiness a decisive virtue in a contest for the premiership. Unlovable Margaret Thatcher was able to achieve office in 1979, promising tough government, because people realised the nation had reached a turning point. The horrors of industrial failure and union tyranny were so apparent that drastic remedies were obviously needed. It is unlikely that Britain’s condition will look anything like as grave by the next election.
Some of those who worked with Davis in government during the 1990s question whether he possesses any fraction of Thatcher’s force, intelligence and originality. A senior Tory veteran, who customarily adopts a much less bleak view of the party and its personalities than my own, dismisses Davis contemptuously as “an adventurer, lacking imagination and energy for any task save that of becoming leader”.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1535427,00.html
11 - Unless you are talking about David Davies, the Monmouth MP…
I think Cameron is potentially both better and worse - he could be more creative in carving out a victory even without some disaster for Brown. Or he could completely fail to get a grip on the party. Davis is less of an unknown quantity - he will keep the party going for sure but, as Hastings implies, only in a really bad situation for Labour will he look like an attractive alternative.
I really think that Cameron would be too much of a risk. The Conservative Party are betting their future on the next election.
[I’m reposting this here from the previous thread incase it gets missed]
Apropos of many Tory coments about wanting a socially and economically liberal party, I think if you asked many of the Lib Dems who post on here you’d find the same thing. However, as we’ve nailed our colours to different masts we spend all our time arguing because we look at the labels and not the politics.
Meanwhile TB and chums pay lip service to part of that ideal (whilst failing to deliver) on 26% of the vote.
How stupid is that?
Davis is surely the candidate who - whatever he says - believes in one more heave - and the Tories need a candidate who believes in transforming the party. Davis is therefore the risk because there is little prospect of the Tories winning with him at the helm. He is also a poor television performer and that simply isn’t good enough for leader in this day and age. I am surprised that the odds on him are still as attractive as they are.
Were Rik to reappear he could do worse than choose a name like this
Resistance is Useless!
Here in Little Snoring, our canvassing returns show a steady stream of defectors to the cause! I can safely say that our imminent victory in the Lowfield Ward Parish By-Election brings the government of Tony Blair within measurable distance of its end!
Heinrich @ 1:
In 1997, the British Labour Party inherited a relatively sound economy from the Conservatives and, since then, have done a reasonable job of maintaining it. Hence their popularity.
In 1998, the SPD/Greens inherited an economy desperate for reform after the inertia of the Kohl era and still staggering under the burder of a botched reunification. Unemeployment was already at a post-war high then. The SPD/Greens have tried to implement the necessary refoms, but have failed largely due to sabotage by the CDU/CSU at every turn. Hence their unpopularity.
As far as I can see, the CDU/CSU manifesto barely differs from that of the SPD. The CDU plans to carry out pretty much the same reforms that they bitterly opposed when the SPD/Greens attempted them. And what will the CDU/CSU be doing about the SPD/Green Eco-Tax, which, according to the CDU was job-killer number one? Er, well, leaving it as it is actually.
In a sense, a CDU/CSU win should be good because the CDU majority in the Upper House will put Angela Merkel in a good position to implement the reforms. Their hypocracy really sticks in my throat though, and I could not bring myself to vote for them for that reason.
Sorry if that all sounds like a rant.
I found Rik’s comments offensive. Yet I see no reason why he shouldn´t continue posting in his own name. He is entitled to his views. It was his timing that upset people.
I would like to see Rik back. He added some colour to proceedings. I suspect he is watching over us even now, but has been forbidden from speaking by the powers that be. Some form of seance may be the best way forward.
What Anthony’s excellent article demonstrates (although of course we already knew it) is that it’s not going to be difficult for the Tories to deprive Labour of an overall majority, but very difficult to secure one for themselves.
It is a measure of the “headless chicken” impression the Tories are doing that not one of the candidates - probably an outsider who is in effect running for a senior Shadow Cabinet position - has campaigned around how s/he would use a hung Parliament as a route to power.
Labour has committed itself to increasing its female MPs from 28% to 40% next time - a target which it will not reach by simply offering peerages to elderly male MPs, but which a list system of the German type makes perfectly straightforward. Labour will therefore roll forward its fudgeable commitment to “investigating” electoral reform, and, if the largest Party, put forward a Bill for whatever form of PR it thinks will serve it best, and defy the other parties, in particular the Lib Dems, to vote it down.
For their part, the Tories might usefully look at Lords reform. It would be consistent with both their principles and their partisan advantage to devise a scheme to replace a patronage House with one whose mandate, whilst electoral, is designed to be inferior to that of the Commons. That could be done by a higher age or possibly an income or property qualification.
As far as local government is concerned, they should offer to re-introduce Aldermen (say one for every six Councillors) elected on a business vote. Then they could scrap government grants to councils and replace them with an equalisation scheme (such as we had in London pre-Poll Tax), requiring merely that Councils’ budgets secured a majority of both councillors and aldermen.
20 , Simon G . I think Rik may have been taken aback by the critisism of Tory posters and then realized the stupidity of his timing and the rashness of some of his comments. However I for one welcome his contributions and regret his absence . Of course he could have just gone on holiday and not told us - how inconsiderate !
Nevertheless the appearance of the Londoner Diary piece will not endear him to many in the party and one may wonder if the offending piece will damage his chances of selection in the future. The wonder is that something had not appeared in the press earlier , although I think it likely that the Standard held the item for the day of the funeral to give it a little more impact.
Anyway if your out there Rik , as we say up North …. “will yer no come back agin “
As someone who exchanged heated comments with Rik on a number of occasions , I still miss his posts and contribution to this site . Everyone will overstep the mark with an unwise comment at one time or another but that just parallels life in the real world away from this board .
Is Rik this first politician to be destroyed by politicalbetting.com? Hopefully not and he’ll be back soon. Perhaps he’s been called up.
22.”Labour has committed itself to increasing its female MPs from 28% to 40% next time - a target which it will not reach by simply offering peerages to elderly male MPs, but which a list system of the German type makes perfectly straightforward.”
I don’t like the closed list system. There will be problems with the composition of the lists (rebels will protest if they’ll be put down on the lists). I prefer open list (voters could write the name-or more- of the candidate they prefer and the candidates will elected according to the personal votes they get). So a tory voter could decide if he’ll prefer to vote for Edward Leigh or for Alan Duncan and a Labour voter could vore for Nick Palmer or for Alan Simpson.
25 - called up … before the beak?
24 , Mark . Hello to the electoral mystic Meg of Brighton . Your services are required as James @ 21 has suggested a seance to get Rick back. Is that you on the right ?!?!?!
http://www.cliffcoles.com/TheRep/BSWebGallery/pages/Seance.htm
We will hold a Ouija Board session tonight , all hold hands around the table and no hands allowed under it LOL ( must learn to use this yellow smiley thingy .
Richard @ 4 has been reading too many focus’ - the Conservatives are in a position to win enough seats for a majority, and far closer to that position than the Lib Dems. I am not a believer in the ‘one more heave’ theory, but do believe that a ‘feel good’ economy helps the Gvt and bad economy the opposition. It is time to take a risk, go for someone good on tv, and stick with them for more than 4 years. AND not preach to people on what their morals should be and how they dhould live their lifes.
Andrea [26] - nobody except Party managers likes the closed list system, but that’s what Labour introduced in London, Scotland and Wales. Its only merit that I can think of is in achieving quotas of women, Muslims, dwarves or whatever else you might want to achieve a quota of…
30 - jeffh, Bullseye put forward a very cogent analysis a few days ago that elucidated the Tories problem with the Lib Dems. Its not so much that the Lib Dems present a challenge to the Tories per se, but that together with the other smaller parties and the electoral bias towards Labour, a consistent Lib Dem presence of around 40 seats (being pesimistic) constitutes an effective block on a Tory majority government.
There does not seem to be any evidence, even privately, that the Tories are looking at options in the quite likely event of a hung parliament or tiny majority at the next election.
31 - Dwarves??? Persons of Restricted Growth (PORGs)
Rik’s words were tasteless , inappropriate and deeply unworthy of a candidate for Parliament - he betrayed a complete lack of judgement , class and any sense of balance or reason
The electors of Sutton & Cheam have had a close shave in nearly being represented by someone who , firstly , holds such views of a member of his own party and , secondly and far more importantly , is prepared to spout them in public
32 - I’m sure such thoughts will happen but rather closer to the election itself. So much will depend on the circumstances e.g. would the Tories be the largest party (ie. have ‘won’ the election through very substantial gains from Labour? Or still in second place? And if so, how far behind? Let’s get a new Leader first!
34. Almost as gracious as your good self
35 - John, in some ways a fair point, but if you’re serious about reaching out beyond the 33% box, expressing a willingness to work with others is perhaps the first step to getting them to actually vote for you? And any leader who signals this might be on to something.
Would the Labourites and Lib Dems of Sutton and Cheam have any compunction about splashing Rik’s remarks all over their campaign literature come 2009? Of course we all make mistakes and say rash things, but I’m sure his political opponents – were they so minded – could make political hay with those gaffs and their timing: ‘poor judgement’, ‘Tories still the nasty party’ etc. Many a political career has been finished by a gaff, but this might be the first online example.
Re Edward Heath - I know one shouldn’t speak ill of the dead, apparently, but by that standard we should all be praising Mao Tse Tung. By many accounts - not just rik’s - Heath was a pretty odious man: sulky, pompous, vain, bitter.. and a crap PM to boot. I’m sure he was a fine sailor and a good friend to some, but still.
I remember a letter of complaint he once wrote to the Spectator, which began ‘It has been brought to my attention, that a piece in your magazine..’which just about sums him up: the air of pomposity, the hint that underlings were constantly ‘bringing things to his attention,’ inference that he was too grand to read a rag like the Spectator, yet not too grand to whine.
Now he’s dead and buried we should be able to say what we like - though it is arguable a Tory candidate shoud, I spose, be more circumspect.
As for Davis - an adventurer who just wants to be leader? Sounds not unlike Tony Blair, who hasn’t been entirely unsuccessful.
Cameron is just too young, callow and posh. He needs a few scars, to show he’s mortal. After the public school smarm of Blair, people aren’t going to want more of that. Time for a working class bruiser.
And I know I shouldn’t mention the bombs, as this is Carry on up the Khyber territory here, but I do think there’s a fair chance the public is going to be very tired of soft left, multiculti, no-handle-on-iommigration politics by the next election: a good chance the public will be yearning for much more robust right wing politics. The Lib Dems (re multiculturlaism and immigration etc) are to the left of Labour. The Tories could come in and mop up the angry white working class vote, if they are smart. The Thatcherites who deserted them.
These bombs (sorry!) are going to change things, I feel. Interesting times ahead.
38 - given the Tories have deselected all their candidates there was a strong chance Rik wouldn;t be in S&C anyway next time
You will forgive me, Sean, if I find your persistent attempts to use the bombs to push your political agenda rather distateful.
35/37 Jon O /Tabman . The Wells analysis is pretty spot on . The strange thing is that discounting a Tory majority , the best result for the Tories must be a narrow Labour win , with the Tories in prime position in 2013 . The Tories winning enough seats to leave Labour the biggest party in a hung parliament would be a worse result as I feel that Labour and the Lib Dems would enter a coalition as in Scotland and potentially lock out the Tories for many years to come . The dynamic of British politics would then change decisively.
40: And is that good chance now a certainty?
I’m a very occasional reader (and even more infrequent contributor) to this site. Have not been on since following the general election betting. Saw Rik’s comments in the ES yesterday and came on to see if any reaction. If that’s what he thought he’s got every right to be as offensive as he likes. However i suppose his real “crime” is showing complete lack of any political judgement and expressing a view in the public domain that will come back and haunt him by his own party and his opponents. If he ever stood again what do you think would be the first headline in the Lib Dem Focus. As they say in the USA he’ll be lucky to get elected as the town’s dog-catcher.
Bruce
39 - Sean, I think you would have a point if there was an election this year or even early next, but with it being 4 years away I really think people will have moved on. Did anyone mention 9/11 and Madrid at the last election - not as far as I can recall (mentioning Iraq is different), and it certainly didn’t make a difference.
42 - Jack, I disagree. It would be very difficult for the Lib Dems to enter a coallition with Labour if they had “lost” the election. I suspect the only deal that would be possible wouyld be a short temr one (18 months) to introduce PR and then a dissolution and new election. Anything else would be untennable and I’m far from convinced that Labour would accept PR even if they were defeated.
Were the Tories to be the largest party, it would be easier to steer the Lib Dems towards coalition with them than otherwise (electoral reality), but I suspect the Tories would go for the one more heave in those circumstances and not be interested.
SimonG, of course I will forgive you! Just as I hope you will forgive me for finding your comments immature and absurd.
40 - It may be completely my imagination, but didn’t Rik strongly hint he wanted to stand somewhere else anyway?
43 - No doubt it won’t help. An odd aside is that Francis Maude’s father, Angus, fell out very badly with Heath and was a big Thatcher cheerleader in 1975 despite probably being closer to Heath politically. I have no idea whether his father’s animosity to Heath will affect the Chairman’s approach to Heath’s critics. Not a lot I suspect - whatever Maude thinks of Heath the incident calls into doubt Rik’s judgement.
Re. Max Hastings’ piece, is Davis really any more nasty than recent Tory leaders? We already know about Hague’s homophobic cracks about Peter Mandelson (’Lord Mandelson of Rio’, ‘I wouldn’t want a reverse gear if Peter Mandelson was behind me’), and Iain Duncan Smith’s jibe at CK’s alleged drinking habits. Major was almost universally portrayed by the press as a nice guy (if rather inept, a sort of political Frank Spencer) but many of his performances in PMQs (particularly his last) were spiteful and petulant (not least the gratuitous swipe at John Smith as ‘Monsieur Oui, the Poodle of Brussels). Even after his landslide defeat, he was still at it, sneering in the The Spectator that the idea of politicians apologising was ’silly’ (nice that, from someone who wasted billions of pounds of reserves, and was prepared to crucify the economy with interest rates of 15%, to keep us in the ERM). I also remember him snapping that he’d never asked the Kurds to rise up against Saddam Hussein. Max Hastings’ memoir Editor also reveals Major’s tasteless cracks about Hezza’s heart problems.
Not that I’d suggest for one moment that such unpleasantness is confined to Tory leaders. Wilson is reputed to have made a nasty crack about Heath’s private life (or lack of one), suggesting the election slogan ‘Heath for Queen, Wilson for Prime Minister’, and also taunted Alec Douglas-Home, sneering ‘Why don’t you behave more like a Leader of the Opposition?’ (which provoked the classic riposte, ‘Why don’t you behave more like a Prime Minister?’) Blair, meanwhile, described some Labour MEPs as ‘unadulterated w*nkers’ (which reminded me of Major’s alleged threats at Gus O’Donnell’s leaving dinner to ‘f*cking crucify’ Tory right-wingers).
Re. above post, I suppose, strictly speaking, it should read ‘Would Davis be any more nasty than recent Tory leaders?’
45. Very fair point. But I was thinking, more, that we might see a cultural paradigm shift - similar to the one undergone by the Dutch, a country I know well. The Dutch are probably the European country most like us - historically protestant, commercial, maritime, tolerant. Yet in the last few years the political scene has been transformed there, for reasons that don’t need repeating. Similarly, in the USA the political centre has shifted bigtime since 9/11. There hasn’t been a repeat of 9/11, yet they still reelected Bush last year, for all his well-known flaws…
38 , Hermes . By all accounts and especially those who met Rik at the PB.com party Rik is a decent guy whose indecent haste to attack Heath was out of character . But you’re correct politics is a rough old trade and the Lib Dems in S&C will use it to their advantage if they feel it necessary . I fear a “Focus” leaflet in the making.
BTW , interesting tag , the Dowager Lady Jack W is rather keen on Hermes although her favourite is classic Chanel from the fifties.
29 , Mark . Have your “other worldly” powers spotted the Jacobite medal for sale on Ebay ?
46 , Tabman . Oh dear ….Tabbers how wonderfully niave some Lib Dems can be . How may I some up how wrong you are …. in one word …Power !!
I thought Rik was fed up fighting Lib Dems and wanted to fight a Lab Con marginal.
53 - Jack, I fear you are too cynical (and also wrong). If Lib Dems were really interested in power, would they have joined the Lib Dems? Our conference is an exercise in principle over power …
55 - furthermore, as seems likely, if Lib Dem gains next time come in the main from Labour, there will be a raft of anti-Labour MPs hostile to coalition with them.
52 - “the Dowager Lady Jack W”
Jack - this must mean you are posting beyond the grave, having vacated your title. Do we already have the seance we asked about?
Tony isn’t getting an easy time at his monthly press conference at the moment.
57 - not if the DLJW’s deceased husband was also Jack W.
Disconcertingly, I discovered that one of my Great Uncles (deceased) was called Jack Warner …
55 , Tabman . Yes but what binding influence does the conference have …. diddly squat . No the smell of the Government leather beckons in a hung parliament . Yours is the optimism of the fast disappearing “lentil quiche days” as opposed to the “red meat” Lib Dems of the current MPs , hence their ditching of Mathew Taylor. The new intake have no nostalgia for the days of the Lib Dems having Parliamentary party meetings in a telephone box discussing the finer points of nut cutlet farming in the Orkneys !
60 - Jack, you seem remarkably well-informed about the Red-Blooded (Blood Orange???) MPs views. What’s your source thereon?
As a meat-eater interested in power myself, I’m actually being pesimistic in the tendency of the party to restrain itself from sullying its hands with power.
Re 6 well, well. Outbreaks of Tory nastiness never surprise me…but the non-stop blundering does! ‘If’ I had lost a parliamentary seat by just 3k or so I’d like to think I’d learnt either not to think like that OR if I did to keep it to myself in the aftermath of death OR to use an alias on websites!
57 , book value . The Dowager Lady Jack W is my mother !!
59 , Tabman . Oh no … we are NOT related !!! Extensive genealogical research has conclusively proved that the Liberal virus has not infected the heirs male of the body since that dangerous reformer Robert the Bruce in the early 14th century :
http://www.robinhilldestinations.net/robertthebruce13.htm
Hate to disagree with the poetic licentiousness of Jack Lord Vennison, but Tabbers wins on points here. There might potentially be the possibility of a LibDem coalition of Labour if the latter remained by far the largest party but say, 20 or so seats short of a majority.
But in, er, a well-hung Parliament, particularly where the Tories would have won the most seats, this option would simply not be politically feasible, lentils, quiche, or overdone beef! Mystic Meg I certainly ain’t, but my hunch is that in these circumstances, The Tories would form a minority government (that probably would survive a Queen’s Speech) and hope to make further gains a year or so later (not dissimilar to October 1974).
But as that election (almost) showed, such plans can go awry. Only after a second Parliament with no aboslute majority would ’stuff happen’…
16 - Tabman -”Meanwhile TB and chums pay lip service to part of that ideal (whilst failing to deliver) on 26% of the vote.”
What is the 26%?I assume it is 26% of the total electorate?
65 - slip of the finger - I meant 36% of the vote (22% of the elctorate IIRC)
PS and even more so if they had won the popular vote, which under such a scenario, they would almost certainly have done, and perhaps by a wide margin…
51- I don’t agree that the US has shifted to the right since 9/11. Kerry was attempting to become the first northern democrat and the first senator to become president since Jack Kennedy. And Kennedy only (just) won because of the legacy of conservative democrat support in the south. Even Clinton would have been blown away had Ross Perot not split the conservative vote.
The US has had a conservative majority for many, many years. The fact that such a lacklustre candidate as Kerry came as close as he did to unseating a wartime conservative president indicates to me that there had been a shift away from the conservatives, not towards them.
68. Really? Can’t agree. I was in the USA for the last presidential elections. The media was full of Democrats bewailing the way the US has shifted right, towards the Red States. Er, they should know, shouldn’t they?
Also the breakdown of the vote showed that, for the first time, large number of ethnic minorities - particularly Hispanics - had moved to the Republicans.
I therefore suspect your sanguine analysis would be widely derided in Democrat circles in the States, who are at present wrestling with this very problem: the rightwards shift of the country.
16, Tabman, couldn’t what happened in 1859 be repeated somehow?
Just to put some of you out of your misery, I am still very much alive and:
1. No I have not been “spoken to” by anyone to ask me not to contribute to PB.com - I just decided after the hysterical reactions of some, not to post on here for a while.
2. I have not been ticked off by anyone about posting on here - although some friends think it unwise to do so
3. I have never (to my recollection) stated whether or not I would like to fight Sutton and Cheam again or would seek to contend another seat.
4. If the worst the Lib Dems can do is to attack me for my postings on the utility of Ted Heath I will be a happy man!
I accept that my timing was insensitive, however my views on his time as PM are sincere and held for a very long time. I am quite sure that Heath himself would have been supremely indifferent as he is known to have said far worse about others. It was interesting to sit in the public gallery of the House and listen to some of the tributes from all sides, and to notice very many strategic absences. It is noticeable how he excites great passion from all sides, with more hostility from his own side and great endearment from his opponents. I think I would prefer the opposite personally, something I seem to have achieved already
The frustrating thing about this site is that comments made are often seized upon in a way that they would not be in “real life”. Faux indignation from political opponents is often used as a weapon in argument when in fact some serious debate would be far more sensible.
I think I will leave posters on here to enjoy each other’s company while I withdraw to a safe distance and rejoin Marcus and other less obsessed individuals in the “real world” again!
Bon chance!
68 - I think most analyses show that Clinton would have won regardless of Perot, don’t they?
61 , Tabman . I couldn’t possibly reveal my sources , Lord Rennard would never speak to me again !
I also see you as one of these reformed veggiecrats tempted too often to the quiche tendency , whilst stuffing youself silly on venison sausages . Frankly a little like these examples of Liberal Democrat big hitters !!
http://www.j-carling.ndtilda.co.uk/moremen.html
72 - this is something I have long wondered about: do you have any references?
73 - I’m not allowed to look at that link, Jack.
And personally, whilst I like lentils, I find quiche quite fatty and wouldn’t think of combining them. I think you must be quite a culinary adventurer to dream up such concepts.
69- Yes they should know but maybe they don’t, or they have other reasons for what they are saying. Think McGovern, think Dukakis, both northern democrats who gained much less support than did Kerry.
What seems to have happened is that over the past few decades the Republican and Democrat parties have become the conservative and liberal parties. This is very different to 30/40 years ago when the southern democrats were on the whole as conseratative as it gets including a lot of opposition to civil rights.
The Democrats used to get by with a liberal northern Democratic head and a southern conservative tail. The southern conservative voters have however now largely gone over to the Republicans but this is a party shift, not a shift to the right. Even so I don’t think today’s southern conservative Republicans are as right wing as the old southern democrats.
71 - “Faux indignation from political opponents is often used as a weapon in argument when in fact some serious debate would be far more sensible.”
It’s not the indigantion of opponents you want to worry about, Rik. A lot of Tories on this site and no doubt outside were pretty indignant themselves. Good to see you still have at least a watching brief, though.
71. Rik! Glad to see you are alive and well! I didn’t agree with your comments on Heath but defended your right to make them in the good, knockabout tradition of this site. Lord preserve us from taking ourselves too seriously!
Look forward to your next posting. Don’t leave it too long.
To those interested in by-elections there may be one in Glasgow Cathcart depending on how the court proceedings go. The Labour MSP Lord Watson is to face charges for wilfull fireraising following an incident at the Scottish Politician of the Year award ceremony. He’s subsequently been suspended by the Labour party.
79 - “wilfull fireraising” sounds much naughtier than arson
71. Good to see you back Rik. Sorry if I got it wrong about fighting a different seat. I must have got it mixed up with someone else. Did you see Charlie Kennedys tribute to Ted Heath? Shame he had to get a cheap dig in still that’s Charle Kennedy.
P.S Carry on up the Khyber is on Sunday on C4.
75 , book value . ” I’m not allowed to look at that link .. ”
It’s not porn !! Just … well .. larger than life !!
Yes my culinary reputation goes before me , somewhat like Letitia Cropley in “The Vicar of Dibley”. I’m working on “A Thousand and One Venison Recipes for Scottish Aristocrats” . Indeed for lunch today I’m trying venison and peanut butter flan with a touch of strawberry preserve and marmite .
79 - does anyone know the ins and outs of this “incident”?
70 - I can’t see it this side of PR in today’s climate. In the early C19th fluid coalitions was the order of the day I gather and the party machinery was much less rigid. Blame Joseph Chamberlain [splitter!].
71 - Rik, I was beginning to think our days of sparring were over [sniff] - welcome back.
73 - you are Milord’s pastry chef and I claim my £5! No, its been meat all the way for me, Jack. Real men don’t eat quiche. Methinks you’re far too fond of them yourself (what’s a chap to do whilst watching the markets all day?) and are seeking to defer your vice onto an innocent party. Come clean!
84 - Chamberlain was the splitter of all splitters. I can’t see, say, Shaun Woodward, attacking his old party so virulently as to cause a brawl on the floor of the Commons.
It is ironic I think that the professionalised party machines he did more than anyone to created (with the Birmingham Liberal Federation as the template for the National Liberal Federation) made the Liberal split permanent, with the Lib Us needing to come quickly into the Tory fold in order to have an election-winning machine.
73, Jack W, you are probably thinking of Cyril Smith?
83 - He is alleged to have set fire to some curtains in a hotel for reasons unknown. There is CCTV footage of curtains apparently being set alight by a crouching figure in a kilt. The gentleman in question either denies it is him or denies that it shows what the hotel says it shows. It is all coming up before the courts.
Welcome back Rik, but Jody Dunn might claim to be first to have a campaign buggered up by a comment on the web (something about naked, drunken, Hartlepool voters with big dogs - for younger readers).
Chinese embroidery nothing to do with me, book value. Have not persuaded Chinese to buy up British Textile industry (what little is left of it) - but think we have a deal which will help finance our stock. We have persuaded them that our payment cycle has been altered by Gordon Brown.
Anyway Lobster and other less recognizable bits of seafood this evening excellent!
71. Welcome back Rik, I hope you’ve got all that truth-speaking out of your system - you are supposed to be a politician after all!
88. Your Jody had a pretty decent results in May. Now you’ve to campaign to find a better seat for her in 2009.
Jody’s seat fine to me!
89 , John Gale . I think your mistaken in thinking that Rik is back . My reading of the last paragragh of his post @ 71 is that it is valedictory . So farewell Rik !
86 , Hmmm . I rarely think of Cyril Smith , I find it brings on a fit of the vapours .
84 , Tabman . ” are seeking to defer your vice …”
Mrs Jack W had a headache last night , does that count ?
91. you couldn’t leave her in Hartlepool: she won’t probably win next time there.
Isnt Sedgefield close?
88 - I hope its not too painful. On a negotiation course last year the lecturer regaled us of a tale of when he worked for an aircraft manufacturer. After 10 weeks of negotiations a deal was struck and a celebratory meal was had; much rice wine toasting and unusual items to eat. With everyone a tad green the next day, the locals decided to reopen negotiations!
92 - I hope you didn’t turn to quiche for consolation.
93 - Andrea, Icarus is playing on the alternative meaning of seat (ie a person’s rear-end)
95. Thanks Tabman. I didn’t know that meaning.
Btw, the best seat near Hartlepool for the Libdems is City of Durham.
93 , Andrea . Mmmnn , I’m not sure that’s what Icarus had in mind !
http://www.thevervoid.com/newswomb/edexcel.htm
Surely, Andrea, the lib dems had a very effecive female candidate in Durham City this time out. Is she likely to want to ‘roll over’ for Jody Dunn who you post “you’ve to campaign to find a better seat for her in 2009. ” There is a perfectly good but highly-sexist retort to this last remark which I shall avoid the temptation to make!
97 - I didn’t know you could get bacofoil in Cambridge Blue …
72 & 69 - The reason for the Democrat decline has been that in the 90s they stood (generally) for free trade, military intervention to promote democracy values as well as civil rights and a fair deal for the poorer in society. Indeed up to 9/11 Bush and the Republicans were the isolationists and protectionists. After 9/11 the centre of the Democratic party (eg Joe Lieberman) has been outmanouvered by the Michael Moorites who have made the Democrats adopt positions totally incompatible with our history and values. Let’s remember the Democrats were the party that stood up to Hitler, Stalin (in the late 1940s), saved South Korea and nearly won Vietnam. They don’t need to change their core values (or reverse their stance on civil rights) it just that they need to remember what they are. In effect the Democrats need a Tony Blair (or to put it more simply they need another Bill not Hillary).
In contrast the Tories are (and generally always have been) a party dominated by a small coalition of interests (eg Countryside Alliance, anti-immigration etc) and have been put out of power for the last eight years by a party which combines modern economic policies with compassion and have a leader who is prepared to act with convinction and values in foriegn affairs - even if it annoys a few journalists. Although I’m not the best person to judge since I will never vote for any other party than Labour but I think that choosing between David Davis and David Cameron is like re-arranging deckchairs on the Titanic.
98. I didn’t want to oust Carol Woods as Libdems candidare.
I would also add to my previous comment that adopting the intolerance and bigotry in a bid to win ‘red states’ of a large section of the Republican party is not the way forward. Although I might have deeply disagreed with Kerry’s positions on Iraq and Trade, I was deeply shocked when Bush won - Trade and Foriegn Policy are the only two areas which the Democrats need to change.
102 - But isn’t a lot of it down to perception. Because so many Americans seem themselves as conservative the republicans gain a lot of votes (as the democrats did in times past) by promoting themselves as conservative and ‘protecting’ traditional values.
In fact from this side of the ocean the Republicans stand for change as much as or more than the democrats do, just different changes. If the democrats attached a conservative label to their cherished values, e.g. protecting health care, protecting pension rights, protecting workers’ rights, protecting civil rights against all the changes being pushed by the Republicans they could surely start to categorise the Republicans as the dangerous radicals who are trying to change the american way of life.
On a humourous note, a grandson of mine has just returned from a holiday in America and has brought me back a t-shirt emblazoned with the words ‘Liberals of the World…..IGNITE!’
I’ll wear it proudly!
92: Yes, Mr Richard Willis no longer feels he belongs on the website he served so nobly for years. It has become, in his view, factional and extreme. The Heathites have driven him out. He’s a bit like a Peter Temple-Morris in reverse.
104 - Alastair, you’ve shattered my illusions. A T-Shirt for goodness sake? i had you more in mind as this sort of man: http://www.bownsbespoke.com/lukeeyres.htm
Next thing you’ll be telling me you wear jeans …
106 - Are you calling me a stiff shirt, Tabbers ?!?
Never fear, however. I shall wear it with my plus fours, under my tweed jacket.
106 - Incidentally, the establishments linked from that site are a bit downmarket for my taste. I’m a Turnbull & Asser man myself.
I thought the expression was: stuffed shirt
n. Informal
A person regarded as pompous or stiff
But I was referring to whether the traditionalist in you would come out in your dress sense or not. As to Turnbull & Asser, its ready to wear
106 - “There are not as many of us nowadays who wear stiff white collars. In my youth it was not unusual to pass gentlemen in the street wearing such items. But even so, I realised that they were doing something a little special. I resolved at an early age to emulate them. What attracted me? The surface shine, the rigidity, the hint of formality, …”
I was very worried about the direction the story was evolving in at this point. The swish of the cane seemed not far off.
104 , AHM . In light of recent events “IGNITE” might be a tad insensitive . Perhaps wear it at chez Matlock whilst watching repeats of Mrs T conference speeches and cluthcing copies of Michael Howard’s “I was a teenage werewolf” !!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1888158.stm
109 - Ah yes, but high end ready to wear and By Appointment to HRH the Prince of Wales no less! Though they do excellent bespoke work as well.
111 - Don’t worry, Jack. I’m saving it as canvass attire for the next election. It’ll go down a bomb here in Beaconsfield. Or is that being insensitive as well?
112 , AHM . This group photograph at my tailors in Edinburgh is a fine example of Scottish bespoke craftmanship . My pink coat is stunning and my butler is also well turned out . However , Tabman , seated was kitted out by his relatives from Beaconsfield .
http://bbc.co.uk/comedy/blackadder/gallery/images/three3_640.jpg
113 - Jack was of course referring to one of AHM’s offspring, rather than me. However, I should point out that I have obtained a photo of an unspecified member of the Kinkell clan taken during Military Service http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/blackadder/gallery/images/four4_1024.jpg
Being well turned out and displaying a touch of informality are not, of course, mutually exclusive:
http://de.easyart.com/art-prints/beruhmtheiten/Starposter/Jimi-Hendrix-Jeremy-Thorpe-Gross-250764.html
I wonder what happened to the gentlemen in this photo? No doubt they all turned out well.
Where on earth is Jeremy resting his bridge?
As interesting as the question of who will be the next Tory leader (I’d personally go for Davis or Rifkind, but for some reason I have a feeling that Cameron might get it) is what their shadow cabinets will look like. Who, for example will DD appoint as Shadow Chancellor, as in my opinion they’re going to need someone a heck of a lot better than Letwin or Osborne (will DC keep Osborne if he gets it, or will he have the good sense to demote him and get someone who looks like he’s a safe pair of hands.) In my opinion the soundest choices for shadow chancellor would be Hague, Willetts or possibly Rifkind, and I suspect that if Fox or Cameron gets the leadership it will be Hague, and if DD gets it it will be Willetts. Hopefully Rifkind will be promoted, perhaps to Deputy Leader. Liam Fox as Shadow Home Secretary anyone? Maybe Alan Duncan as Party Chairman? And what will DD do with DC? Foreign Secretary maybe? And what will DC do with DD if he gets it? Will DD be content to stay shadow home secretary? I can’t see him doing a Clarke and sidling off to the back benches, but who knows?
34: Hmm, you feel that Rik expressing his views in public is especially bad? Not very encouraging for those of us in practical politics who try to contribute frankly. I’m aware that by posting on the site I’m amassing hostages to fortune, and sooner or later I may say something that can be quoted out of context against me. On the other hand, a silent politician is not much use to anyone, so I think it’s worth taking part. But in return I think we should have a bit of group solidarity and not mug people for their views unless they are truly abominable…
Cameron wants more MPs with independent minds.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4717079.stm
It’s a very good thing, but then he couldn’t protest if he’ll become PM and tories MPs will often rebel.
A silly observation: the BBC article about tory talebans (is it “talebans” or “talibans”?) linked at the top of this thread says that Alan Duncan is the first openly gay tory MP. It’s not true: he’s the first to voluntarily come out, but the first openly gay tory MP was Michael Brown.
118 - The difference between yourself and Rik , apart from the obvious one of different beliefs , is that while you show respect for your opponents and Rik showed nothing but contempt .
The truth is that whichever party is in power both local and national , those running the country or council usually try to do the best they can for the people they represent given the basic principles of their parties .
The exceptions to this are few , the corruption in local Labour councils many years ago and the sleaze in the last Major government being obvious examples .
By all means one should oppose and criticise other parties policies , that is the essence of politics but to simply deride your opponents would show oneself in a bad light .
119 - I believe “taliban” is already the plural and “talib” is the singular. I’ve seen it spelt both ways though (”taliban” and “taleban”).
Was Matthew Parris not openly gay before Michael Brown?
118 , Nick Palmer . Nobody took Rik’s post out of context ,as may be seen from the flak he took from Tory posters . “Group solidarity” is one thing but Group censorship is folly .
http://www.infoclub.com.np/humour/cartoon/monkey.jpg
121. Thanks. I thought that taliban was the singular. :/)
I don’t know if Parris came out while he was an MP. If I remember well he tried to come out in a late night speech in the Commons (a very Matthew Parris thing), but no one was paying attention to him and everyone failed to notice it.
123 , Andrea . I have to say that Matthew Paris has over the year become a “grumpy old man” . In days of yore his journalism in “The Times” was full of wit , insight and perception . Today it’s more likely to be a Hitchens lite rant full of complaint and grievance and I often skip his column .
http://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/g/grumpy_old_men.asp
124. I’ve never read hid old articles. Sometimes I like him and sometimes not. It depends.
We could say that his career as a journalist was better than his career as a politician.
123. I’ve the answer. He didn’t come out while being an MP (when he was asked, he answered “my private life is private”).
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/bookshelf/story/0,9061,801310,00.html
123 - At one stage he lived with a friend of mine. They had an amazingly camp message on the answerphone (at least I thought so at the time (1987)). He might not have come out, but he certainly wasn´t in the closet. (I suppose they had multiple telephone numbers and a different message for callers from Derbyshire.)
126.”They had an amazingly camp message on the answerphone (at least I thought so at the time (1987)). He might not have come out, but he certainly wasn´t in the closet.”
well, I suppose that even Alan Duncan wasn’t in the closet before coming out (it was apparently common knowledge in Westminster).
Now you should tell us what the message said!
[115] Jeremy Thorpe- I think it very sad that he is regarded with shame and scorn. He was, of his time, a fashionable and brilliant wit: “a man who lays down his friends for his life” etc. He has great intellect and enormous charm, yet he, and very nearly, his party were wrecked upon the rock of his own ambiguous sexuality. I think a great what might have been in British politics would be if JT’s private life had indeed remained private… a real tragedy in every sense of the word.
128.”I think a great what might have been in British politics would be if JT’s private life had indeed remained private… a real tragedy in every sense of the word. ”
Talking about politician private lifes, I find that in UK the media are very keen to talk about them (now, but in the past too).
Here in the past no one would have dared to talk about the private life of an MP. In 1948 the communists leader (Palmiro Togliatti) was shot. When he was shot he was with his mistress (another MP). She wanted to go to the hospital with Togliatti. The next day all newspapers wrote that the wife (and not the lover) was with him in the hospital. Togliatti left the wife (the divorce wasn’t legal at the time) and he spend the rest of his life with his lover and no one mentioned it (everybody knew). The first time the affair was acknowledged was at Togliatti’s funeral service.
I suppose that even in the 50’s British newspapers would have exposed the affair.
129 - I’m not so sure, I think the papers were pretty discreet about that kind of thing at the time. Divorce was still rather scandalous, but as long as you stayed nominally married, it probably wouldn’t leak out.
130. But the other parties?
Living with another woman, while married, wasn’t legal here at that time (you could be jailed).
131 - no doubt you would be the subject of plenty of “tearoom” gossip, but I imagine a certain sense of being part of the club would keep it from public knowledge.
Adultery probably wasn’t the slight level of legal taboo here, but of course homosexuality was illegal, and plenty of MPs would have been well known in Westminster circles to be gay.
129 - I don’t know about that Andrea. Bob Boothby carrying on with Harold MacMillan’s wife never seemed to get coverage despite it (I think) being quite a well known ’secret’.
132-133. Thinking well, I think that maybe newspapers didn’t write about those things, becuase at the end they didn’t have the proofs (they couldn’t say “I heard it in Westminster tearoom).
To be back to more recent times, how long Mitterand’s secret daughter would have stayed secret in UK?
Does someone have a link to a Matthew Parris’s photo (I’vr never saw him)?
134 - http://politics.guardian.co.uk/gallery/image/0,9353,-10304392090,00.html
You probably have a point about the secret daughter. Cecil Parkinson didn’t manage to keep it very secret.
128 , John O . I remember the TV coverage of Roy Jenkins memorial service and Jeremy Thorpe looked terrible , a sad trembling shadow of his former self . Of course he’s suffered from parkinsons’ for many years.
When Thorpe lost his North Devon seat in 79 I thought it a great tribute to him that despite the scandal he still polled over 23,000 votes. Also that dotty old racist Bill Boakes stood and polled 20 votes under the Democratic Monarchist , Public Safety and White Resident banner.
As Geoffrey Wheatcroft puts it in his excellent ‘The Strange Death of Tory England’, ‘everybody’ knew about Bob Boothby and Lady Dorothy at a time when ‘everybody’ excluded the vast majority of the British public.
The late Peter Morrison’s homosexuality was well-known at Westminster - Jeremy Hanley (quite a wag before he became Tory Party Chairman) said when he was made Thatcher’s PPS, ‘At last, Margaret has a PPS who can carry her handbag’.
As for Matthew Parris, when he hinted at his homosexuality in a late-night sitting, the then government Chief Whip Michael Jopling said to him (I paraphrase) ‘Let me tell you something. I don’t believe in God. Yet I go to church every Sunday and no one else is any the wiser’.
Re. Jeremy Thorpe, he also congratulated Macmillan on ‘keeping his head while everyone round him was losing theirs’. His memoirs are an excellent read. Auberon Waugh stood against him for the Dog Lover’s Party at the 1979 General Election.
135. I think I’m too influenced by today’s British tabloids. They don’t have a good reputation here.
I expected Parris to be different.
134 - Anfrea - As well as that he also had a gay lover who was a cat burglar and had a meeting with Ron Kray. Only the meeting with Kray ever got out (although it didn’t name Lord Boothby specifically) and even then he managed to successfully sue the Mirror!
the ‘he’ in line 5 of para 2 should, of course, read ‘Morrison’.
137-139. Ok, I was wrong.
I’ve to say that from these posts it seems that past politicians were more “interesting”.
And of course there was Tom Driberg.
http://www.crappublicschools.org/alumni/d/driberg.html
141 , Andrea . And then there was Tom Driberg !!!