Will the Tory race be affected by IDS’s political ping pong?
July 31st, 2005
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Ousted leader: “threatening to leave the party”
With the Tories gearing themselves up for an intense autumn when it will be decided whether Michael Howard’s successor should be elected by a ballot of the party membership the man ousted by the parliamentary party in October 2003, Ian Duncan Smith, is reported to be threatening to resign his membership.
According to the Sunday Telegraph this morning IDS has “told colleagues that he will take the extraordinary step if two people he blames particularly for his downfall are allowed to stand as Tories at the next election.”
The report, by the paper’s Political Editor, Patrick Hennessy, says he would leave the party to become an independent if Vanessa Gearson and Mark MacGregor are selected as Tory candidates. The two “played leading roles in the “Betsygate” affair which saw Mr Duncan Smith accused of sanctioning improper payments to his wife. Both fought last May’s election unsuccessfully and are understood to want to stand again next time.”
This latest move might be part of IDS’s campaign to ensure that it is party members and not the party’s MPs that should have the final say in deciding who the next leader should be. It was this system that saw IDS win emphatically in 2001.
Given that the Tory leadership contest is the most active political betting market at the moment the system of choosing could have a huge impact on the final result.
This site, meanwhile, gets a mention in the Atticus column in the Sunday Times today following the discussion on the political impact of baldness.
Mike Smithson
Our featured picture is courtesy of http://www.larrytt.com/celebrities_playing_tt/ which has a round-up of politicians playing table tennis
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From which I gather not only that it is the silly season, but also that none of the Tory wannabes are inclined to give IDS a front-bench position… come to think of it, has he ever been praised by any of our multitude of Tory Peebies?
Perhaps they could imagine what they would write for his obituary (a la Rik on Heath) surely IDS has helped the decline of the Tory party more than Heath did.
Good point. Tories are alone in following their leader to Hell and back when in office then defecating on them from a great height when their power goes. Perhaps another reason they’re not held in the high regard they’d like to be by the electorate. Remember Michael Howard the ‘dream team’ leader. Tough, resolute, wonderful wife, brilliant tactician, a winner! And his Australian Guru? Anyone like to bet they even get on Central Offices Christmas card list this year… ?
Has anyone told Michael Crick about this?
1 & 3 - Maybe you should read Matthew D’Ancona’s column of a month ago. In it he mentioned of two leadership challengers who wanted to bring IDS back into their Shadow Cabinets.
He’s conducted himself extremely well since he was (quite neccessarily) forced out. And his new think tank, the Centre for Social Justice, has started to make an interesting contribution to the poltical debate within the party.
If this is true, then it’s like watching some strange Trotskite sect.
My theory re. the Tories and their (ex) leaders is the opposite of Roger’s, namely that they often make their lives hell while in office, but then look back with wistful nostalgia when they’re making life hell for their latest leader. Alec Douglas-Home was manoeuvred and whispered against when he was leader (certainly after the 1964 General Election), but then highly regarded by the party (treated like its favourite uncle, in fact) once he’d gone. In fact, while Heath was struggling as opposition leader in the late sixties, there was talk of Home returning. I also think that if Thatcher had stayed in the Commons after the 92 election, she may well have staged a De Gaulle like comeback in the Autumn of that year, so fed up were the Tories with Major after Black Wednesday.
It’s slightly different with Hague - there was a fair amount of ‘bring back Hague’ during the leadership of IDS, but that was mixed with resentment (expressed by Tory journalists such as Peter Oborne) that he was treating the House of Commons like a glorified office, and that he should be serving his party in the Shadow Cabinet. Quite a few Tory posters would like him as Shadow Chancellor, but after Portillo’s performance in the same post, I’d say be careful what you wish for - if Hague rediscovers his hunger, all well and good, but if he’s lost his hunger (as Portillo had when Hague gave him the same job) then he’d probably be more of a liability than an asset.
Re. 2, I suppose they might have said that if he’d had the chance to lead the party into May’s GE, but then again, for all the increased funds and morale under Howard’s leadership, the Conservatives didn’t do any better in last July’s two by-elections than they did in the Brent East by-election, the poor Tory performance in which helped spark the overthrow of IDS.
Vanessa Gearson performed well (she cut the Libdems majority Cheltenham from 12% to 5%), why she shouldn’t be allowed to satnd again? Because an a loser like IDS don’t like her?
McGregor would probably be an MP now if that stupid Lord Tebbitt would have kept his mouth closed (when the tories will decide to send him away will always be too late).
Hmm sounds a “silly season” story to me. Best to take with a pinch of salt i reckon. Besides if IDS is arguing for the rights of party members in the leadership election, it would be more than slightly hypocriticala to complain if local party members are not prevented from choosing whom they desire as their Candidate for MP just because they are His Personal Enemiesa.
If IDS did this then a) Would anyone notice? and b) He look a complete twit throwing his toys out of the pram. He wasn’t ousted over Betsygate he was ousted because he was patently not up to the job. He’d be better off maintaining his dignity.
8 - I think what he’s saying is that they should not be allowed on the approved candidates list, which would prevent any local party from selecting them. Mark McGregor should have won in Thanet and I don’t think he can blame his failure on Lord Tebbit.
10.”Mark McGregor should have won in Thanet and I don’t think he can blame his failure on Lord Tebbit”
I disagree. The margin was little and Lord Tebbit didn’t help. Why should people vote for someone described as “destructive force” by a member of his own party?
10. The approved candidates list should only be there to keep individuals with criminal records, or the likes of Lord Archer from any chance of selection.It should not be used to prosecute particular feuds. If IDS has genuine beef he is at liberty to write to the Cchairaman or Chairwoman of the constituency parties they apply to setting out his reasons why they should not be selected. Otherwise so long IDS. But as i say i think with Parliament gone, August tomorrow this is a “silly season Story”, but how Mr Smithson thought even if true it was somehow connected to the Leadership Contest is Beyond me.
The table tennis site is a good source of links Mike.
I also like this one:
http://www.larrytt.com/celebrities_playing_tt/bill_hillary_clinton.jpg
where Hillary really wants to win.
A STATEMENT ON THE BOMBINGS
The suspect attempted bomber being held in Italy has allegedy told police that the attacks were motivated by anger of Blair’s war on Iraq and not directly connected with Al-Qaeda.
Of course this may not be a reliable statement, but the publicity resulting from this, especially if the other suspects make similar statements will blow Blair’s smokescreen away.
Tony Blair, from day one on 7/7 wanted us to believe these were Al-Qaeda attacks and nothing to do with Iraq. He has fought hard to save his skin and from being exposed for making Britain less safe, not more safe, as security services warned.
Most of the press have acted like fascists rounding up and condemning anyone who didn’t follow Blair’s line. But it seems likely these were home grown terrorists resulting from Blair’s softness on hate preaching and his bloodbath in Iraq.
The lot of them will be exposed for the fools they are.
It is hard to imagine a worse thing a Prime Minister could do, than to make his country and his people less safe. This has happened because Blair put his loyalty to Bush above everything else. This is even worse than telling lies to the people.
The time has come for Blair to go and to apologise, but he will avoid at all costs doing the right thing. We have all been betrayed by our own Prime Minister.
Re 13 BV. A strange obsession that has developed in me from running the the site is trying to find “interesting” pictures of politicians in order to illustrate the articles.
My favourite remains Charles Clarke doing his Charles Bronson impression with his hand-guns that we featured a few weeks back. Another which is waiting for the right moment is the one with Maggie Thatcher and the calf.
14. ‘The suspect attempted bomber being held in Italy has allegedy told police that the attacks were motivated by anger of Blair’s war on Iraq’
Well he would say that wouldn’t he? We shouldn’t delude ourselves into thinking that these fanatical tactics would not have happened if we had not invaded Iraq. Remember 09/11.
Those of us (myself included) who opposed the invasion of Iraq need to be very careful. These terrorist attacks do not justify our opposition to Blair military adventurism. ‘We told you so’ is very tempting. People forget that the first military invasion post 09/11 was Afghanistan (I opposed that too, but was in a small minority compared to opposition to the invasion of Iraq). The justification for invading Afghanistan was directly linked to the ‘war on terror’ in a way that Iraq never could be.
What we can say is that the policy of invading Muslim countries to deal with terrorism has palbably failed. Far from reducing, terrorism has increased since Afghanistan/Iraq. That does not mean that the London bombings would not have happened without Blair and Bush’s military adventures. We will never know, all we can say is that the root causes of terrorism have not been tackled, and the world is less safe as a result.
16. He added that since the 7/7 bombings London’s Muslims are insulted and repressed. He said that those things happened everyday in Iraq. Said Ibrahim Muktar (one of the bombers) usually showed him videos of Iraq people killed by British and US soldiers. He added he hates “western people”.
“Most of the press have acted like fascists rounding up and condemning anyone who didn’t follow Blair’s line.”
A prime example of Godwin’s Law and how it detracts from a perfectly legitimate argument, I fear.
16, Richard Church
Why is it a delusion to think these attacks wouldn’t have happened without invading Iraq?
Yes they might not have happened, as you say, we will never know, but it is extremely likely these attacks were not given extra motivation by what has happened in Iraq.
Blair’s smokescreen that we shouldn’t make that link or even talk about that link with Iraq, because it provides excuses, has been blown out the window.
When he seemed angry about that suggestion at a press conference, I suggest, it was because if that link was made it would look like he had made Britain less safe, endangering the citizens with revenge attacks.
Spain and UK are the two countries in Europe that have been targeted, who were Bush’s closest allies, the only ones at the Azores summit before the war, beating the drum for war louder than anyone outside USA. Look at Egypt last week, another supporter of US policy.
There have been more suicide bombings in the past two years than the past twenty. Doesn’t that tell us something?
Two reports last week made the connection with Iraq. Our own security services warned Iraq would inflame hatred and terror.
Yes 9/11 is relevent, that was an attack against USA. It is because we are co-conspirators of USA evil foreign policy, that the hatred and terrorism has multiplied.
Again, Blair is keen to make us think these are Al-Qaeda attacks. Then he can say, well 9/11 was Al-Qaeda and that was before Iraq and these terrorists are irrational anyway. That is just so Blair doesn’t have to admit he’s made Britain a target.
What we have is home-grown terrorist, that have thrived under conditions created by Tony Blair.
He has put us all under greater risk. He has brought danger to the people, and as I say, that is surely the worst thing any Prime Minister could do.
Out of the past four Tory leaders, IDS is the only one that hasn’t lost a general election.
So with this success in mind, maybe he thinks he might be in with a chance at Veritas!
Andrea [17] - I wonder if he hates his lawyer? From the pic on the front page of the “Sunday Times” she wasn’t exactly dressed the way you might expect her to be when going to consult such a client…
21. I didn’t see her. Do you have a link to the photo? It was hot yesterday.
Re Interest 12. It is hard to judge anything in the Tory party at the moment without reference to the leadership contest. IDS clearly still feels very bruised by what happened in October 2003 and this comes out in his backing for the campaign to keep the selection rules unchanged. If the party decided on no change then he would feel in some way vindicated. If it went against then you can see him resigning and this latest story would be the pretext.
10.”I think what he’s saying is that they should not be allowed on the approved candidates list, which would prevent any local party from selecting them”
Who decide the people who will be on the approved list? How many people (more or less) are on that list?
IDS will not resign as a Tory MP. He is just seeking more influence in the party and a shadow cabinet job as well. Do not forget that unlike Hague, IDS has not made a fortune since being dumped as party leader. He cannot afford to walk away from politics. Clearly though he still feels embittered about his axing and it seems fair enough considering the way his wife was targeted. Also he did not have a conventional end to his leadership like Hague (who lost a GE). He is still probably thinking about what if I was leader, how would I have done (and probably coming to the conclusion, better than MH). None the less now is the silly season and desperate sunday hacks will use anything to create a plausible sounding story. There is no smoke without a fire, but in this case the fire is very small.
MI5 analysts admit link between Iraq war and bombings
IRAQ has become “a dominant issue” for Islamic extremists in Britain, MI5 has admitted.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,22989-1711093,00.html
26. Well there’s a surprise. Islamic extremists don’t much like the invasion of Iraq. Right up there with “Pope sympathetic to Catholics” as a shock headline. It still does not prove a causal link between the invasion of Iraq and the bombings in London. It may not have helped the situation but even if that is true (which can be argued either way) there are lots of foreign policy decisions that are made that do not improve security in the short term. The jury is still out on Iraq - and I speak as someone who was opposed to it.
After the election results, IDS’s resentment for getting the big boot may have grown considerably. He might think he would have done better than Howard. That would be how most people would feel I expect.
He may either feel so strongly about making a stand on giving the members the final say that he is making this threat, or maybe he sees himself as the champion of the members, who may reward him in future by re-electing him as leader.
John D at 27: wow, a nuanced comment on Iraq. Wouldn’t you like to come and live in Broxtowe? A willingness on both sides of the argument to acknowledge that arguments both ways exist is depressingly thin on the ground.
29 - Some of us are not so much opposed to the Iraq invasion per se , as there is always a case for removing a dictator such as Saddam as there is for Mugabe ( but not much chance of that as there are no oil wells in sight ) , but it was the effort that went into the lies and deception about the WMD instead of arguing a genuine case for invasion .
The man arrested in Italy also said he just meant to scare people and not injure.
Suppose you believe that also.
29.” Wouldn’t you like to come and live in Broxtowe?”
Is this a new tactic to keep marginals? Invite potential voters to live in your constituency!
You could start to trade voters with Alan Simpson. Send to him all anti-war voters
Think he would get the vast majority then, most people are anti war.
However sometimes appeasing dictators and fanatics, doesn`t have a very good track record.
OT, but in case you missed: Condoleezza Rice’s principles and values…
John D @ 27:
Your statement “[IRAQ becoming “a dominant issue” for Islamic extremists] does not prove a causal link between the invasion of Iraq and the bombings in London” is just as misleading as similar statements claiming that the scorching summer of 2003 does not prove a causal link between CO2 output and global warming.
No, of course it doesn’t, but the climate of anger and hatred resulting from the invasion of Iraq can only increase the likelihood of such attacks. It is very difficult prove that any single attack is a direct result of the Iraq war, but Iraq is bound to make attacks more frequent.
Dez @ 33:
Unprovoked invasions made on the basis of unproven, and ultimately false, allegations have an even worse track record.
35. As I said, it has not helped the situation but it is rather a large leap to say that the bombings have been directly caused by Iraq seeing as there have been terrorists attacks by extremists in several countries (Bali etc) way before the invasion of Iraq was even a twinkle in George Bush’s eye. Extremists don’t need Iraq to find reasons to bomb us or anyone else. Not conforming to their narrow view of their own religion would seem to be enough. Bin Laden wanted the US out of Saudi Arabia. I suspect if it wasn’t Iraq it would be something else.
[7] Well, I certainly don’t think you would find too many Cheltenham Lib Dems who would be particularly fearful if Gearson stood again. Compared to other Con-LD seats and other seats in Glos she was mildly better than average- but this was against a neophyte Lib Dem parachuted in less than four months before the election. Horwood is bedding in as the new MP, and with more people now knowing about Gearson’s role in Betsygate, I imagine that he will be licking his lips at the prospect of a rematch…
Before entering in a controversial debate about Iraq (every debate about Iraq are controversial!), could someone explain me the real purpose of early day motions? If I’ve undenderstood well, they’re a sort of petition to raise some issues and see if other MPs agree with you. Some covers very important and serious issues, but others are pointless. For example, Diane Abbott tabled an EDM to congratulate Venus Williams for her Wimbledon win. It’s not the only strange EDM I found on the Parliament website (there is an EDM about “Doctor Who” and another to congratulate Bangladesh for its win over Australia in some sport). Haven’t some MPs something better to do?
John D @ 35:
“… it is rather a large leap to say that the bombings have been directly caused by Iraq …”
I did NOT say that - in fact, I explained why one cannot make such a statement! Please read my post more carefully.
33,
No sadam didnt provoke anyone did he, just ask iran, kuwait, kurds, Israel, the region, his people.
40. Yes I know you didn’t say that. What I am saying is that we are a target either way.
Re. 39, during a particularly convivial session in the Smoking Room during a late night sitting, some MPs once asked an official in the House of Commons library to look up the lyrics of the Banana Boat Song.
Apparently the drafting of a single EDM costs the taxpayer hundreds of pounds (or so the press says).
42:
Yes, we were a target before Iraq, but as a consequence of Iraq we have a lot more people aiming at us.
I’m not claiming that an increased risk of reprisals would have been a good enough reason not to have invaded Iraq (there are better ones), merely that it is ridiculous to claim that invading Iraq did not increase the risk of attacks against the UK.
43- Taxpayers will be happy that their money are spend for such important issues like:
-Williams Wimbledon win (Diane Abbott seems to present an EDM to congratulate every balck person who achieves something).
- to congratulate the England women’s football team for their win over Finland (EDM proposed by Alan Keen) and the Liverpool FC for the Champions League victory.
- Chris Bryant wants to commends the Registrar-General, Len Cook, on his recommendation to relax the rules governing the list of readings, songs or music that contain reference to a god or deity in civil wedding ceremonies
-to congratulate the Bangladesh cricket team (this EDM had many supporters. many cricket fans, maybe.) and to extend the congratulations all UK citizens of Bangladeshi origin (the majority of them won’t read the EDM anyway).
- The “Doctor Who” fans are here:http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=28579&SESSION=875
A good thing about EDM is that reading them could keep someone informed about everything happen in UK (and outside). Now I know that there are bear-baiting events in Pakistan (thanks to Andrew Rosindell and Drek Conway), that bovine tuberculosis is increasing and that the number of abandoned cars is increasing.
Andrea, we´ll have to ask Nick to do an EDM about you “that this house congrulates Andrea on his encycloaedic knowledge of UK politics etc”. Are you black? Anyway we’ll say so to Diane Abbott.
46. If it’s true that EDM costs the taxpayer hundreds of pounds, someone will kill me.
Then it seems that Nick Palmer is not a big fan of EDM: he hasn’t sign many of them.
If you search in the database you could find Glenda Jackson, Jenny Tonge, John McDonnel, Alan Simpson and Alice Mahon wishing an happy marriage to Camilla.
15.”A strange obsession that has developed in me from running the the site is trying to find “interesting” pictures of politicians in order to illustrate the articles”
if you want a picture to show the difference between old and new labour, you could use that one with Blair and Skinner at Callaghan’s memorial service:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2005340768,00.html
I think that possibly the most dangerous issue that has resulted from Blair’s adventures into Iraq,is that maybe in two or three years time there is a real danger to the UK which could come for example from Iran now that they had decided that they will continue with their nuclear prgramme.
Lets assume that this time around it is a genuine danger,who can possibly now believe Blair,or Straw or Hoon or Brown if they start talking about near & imminent threats,45 miniting warnings of Iranian nuclear missiles that can hit the UK,dossiers & intelligence to back this up,
Poeple will just laugh & say they heard it all before with Iraq including the dodgy dossiers,the intelligence that has has been sexed up by whichever Labour spindoctor,wev’e heard this all before in Iraq.
Who in parliament or indeed in the country outside can ever believe these people again,and yet this time round the threat is real.
Andrea at 47: PPSs (the lowest form of Government life) and Ministers aren’t supposed to sign EDMs - the theory (probably correct) is that they’d clog up the order paper with loads of self-congratulatory motions. I used to sign lots before - they are essentially press releases, and a useful way of putting an opinion on the record. They very rarely have any other effect, though, and like press releases you sometimes see a silly one. I think it extremely unlikely that they have any significant cost - you write it, the Table Office prints it, that’s it. The figure on costs relates to Parliamentary Questions, I think, and that too is a not very helpful average, mixing “Will the Minister visit Broxtowe to see the wonderful new health centre?” (cost near zero, though usefulness also near zero) to “what is the expenditure on schools in every constituency in Britain, broken down by type?” (cost substantial, usefulness possibly higher).
49. ” PPSs (the lowest form of Government life) and Ministers aren’t supposed to sign EDMs - the theory (probably correct) is that they’d clog up the order paper with loads of self-congratulatory motions”
so they are used to keep busy backbenchers when they’ve nothing to do. Strange that Diane Abbott hasen’t made one to congratulate herself for her election.
Jeremy Corbyn’s name seems to be in every EDM.
21.”From the pic on the front page of the “Sunday Times” she wasn’t exactly dressed the way you might expect her to be when going to consult such a client… ”
I’ve saw her now. Well, she probably arrived directly from the beach….
The cost of printing and publishing EDMs in the Financial Year 2000/2001 (when Richard Younger-Ross asked a Written Question about it - written answers July 3rd 2001 if you’re interested) was £443,000.
In the financial year 2000/2001 there were 1123 EDMs (614 in the 1999/2000 session, 509 in the 2000/2001 session), making the average printing costs of an EDM £394, though it obviously varies according to the EDM - if people keep on signing it in dribs and drabs it would need to keep on being reprinted, so cost more.
In the current parliamentary session, the MP who signed the highest number of EDMs is Alan Simpson (475 EDMs signed) followed by Mike Hancock (454). In the 2004-2005 Hancock was number 1 with Simpson number 2. It’ll a be a close race!
The EDM wiht the highest number of signatures in this session so far is this one:
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=28196&SESSION=875
Jack W, the EDM against the Bromley Council has only 7 signatures. But it was presented the day before the summer recess.
I noticed lots of signatures for the EDM that asks a parliamentary approval for partecipation in armed conflict. If the tories will support it, Clare Short’s private bill has chances to be approved.
If the IDS story is really true he should be allowed to stand as an Independent he would probably be defeated by another Tory candidate.(hopefully by one of the two candidates he is trying to have deselected).
After his behaviour in the Major government he is the last person to start lecturing people.
IDS is (apparently) a good guy. But he was far out of his depth as party leader, and not bright enough to see it. The simplest way of ‘removing’ him seemed to be via his wife. Rough for sure, but wasn’t he in politics?
So he has some good ideas. Who doesn’t?
From a management point of view, one of the hardest cases to deal with are when you over-promote someone. You lose what he was good at, and can’t get it back because of his resentment. A lose-lose position.
53. Regardless of the merits of the IDS story, I find your apparent equation of IDS’ principled stand against Maastricht and the underhand backstabbing effort of his enemies to force him out by smearing his wife pretty hard to swallow. Everything I hear about Mark MacGregor makes me delighted he is not an MP.
[55] IDS had to go. He wouldn’t do so voluntarily. It seemed simple to use his wife; sobeit.
McGregor and Gearson did what the rest of the party wanted, and deserve some credit. Who’s done more for the tory party over the last 3 years?
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