Why my money is staying on Cameron
August 1st, 2005
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Is the old Etonian the “natural successor to Blair”?
For somebody who only came into parliament four years ago David Cameron has moved very quickly and it says a lot about his political and media skills that he has established himself as the main challenger to David Davis.
When people discuss Cameron they focus on his old school and hardly anybody comments on his “day job” before 2001 as the PR boss for Britain’s biggest ITV company. This guy is a communications professional and we think that this will help him enormously if the Tory party reject the Howard rule changes and stick with the system of the final leadership say being with the party membership at large.
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From a betting standpoint we think he will have a good party conference and his price will tighten the closer it gets to decision time
Just loook at the the way he is presenting himself in the picture above and check off the positive messages it sends to a wide range of different audiences. This is more than just a Blair-like staged family group photo and comes from his professional background. We are, also, intrigued by the spin that is now coming out of his camp and was featured by Peter Oborne in this week’s Spectator
MPs set off on their holidays this week amid a mood of national consensus. Tony Blair’s reputation has never stood so high, and its lustre stretches across all parties. Conservative MPs look at him nowadays with adoration. They laugh when he laughs, and grimace when he grimaces. One of the main candidates for the Tory leadership, the moderniser David Cameron, has come to base his candidacy on the sublime proposition that he is the natural successor to Tony Blair. Cameron’s supporters openly claim that just as Blair, not John Major, was the inheritor of Thatcher, so Cameron rather than Gordon Brown will take on the gleaming Blair legacy
Although David Davis remain the strong favourite there could be money to be made on the spread and exchange markets as the Cameron price tightens, as we think it will, in the run-up to the final decsiion.
SUMMER SCHEDULE From now until early September we will not be posting a new article every day. Much less is happening. For my holiday from August 19th Politicalbetting will have a guest editor. More on this later.
Mike Smithson
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Mike, I fear you are once again putting your hope ahead of your head. You might prefer Cameron, but the electorate is made up of Tory MPs.
Say no more.
1. Wrong. The current rules leave it with the members.
All I am saying is that the DC . price will tighten
An excellent piece, Mike. As a part-time reader of this site it’s reminded me why I should log on here and contribute more. Enjoy your break.
“Cameron’s supporters openly claim that just as Blair, not John Major, was the inheritor of Thatcher, so Cameron rather than Gordon Brown will take on the gleaming Blair legacy”
They may be right, but they should remember who succeeded Thatcher. Her true heir (Blair in their claim) or the other one?
It’s certainly a media-savvy picture - notice how the buggy’s been cropped so you can’t be absolutely sure how many wheels it’s got… and good to have proof of my theory that the real reason for the pb.com party was so you could schmooze for a guest editor
1. I think you’re wrong Guido. Davis’s supporters would always have preferred the current membership method, therefore if it switches to the MP’s Cameron should have a better chance, of unting the anti davis factions behind him and winning.
Conversely i think as Mr Smithson is saying if the membership retain their power then Cameron’s PR Experience will Still Give him a stronger shout than many including you are expecting right Mr Smithson?
Ps Enjoy the well deserved Holiday. You going to Tuscany like Tony for a few weeks?
1. I think you’re wrong Guido. Davis’s supporters would always have preferred the current membership method, therefore if it switches to the MP’s Cameron should have a better chance, of uniting the anti davis factions behind him and winning.
Conversely i think as Mr Smithson is saying if the membership retain their power then Cameron’s PR Experience will Still Give him a stronger shout than many including you are expecting right Mr Smithson?
Ps Enjoy the well deserved Holiday. You going to Tuscany like Tony for a few weeks?
5 - was the picture cropped from a larger one? Can you tell if the Camerons are at the local Tesco/ farmer’s market/ historic site?
5. well, he couldn’t say it was a good photo for him.
That is not the best picture of Mrs Cameron - I have seen other ones where she looks much more attractive.
10. Even Mr Cameron seems less good looking than usual (and he isn’t usually good looking).
11 - Oh I dunno, I think a lot of ladies would find him attractive.
12. I know you’ll disagree, but IMO David Davis is better than Cameron in this field.
I’ve to say that Cameron is not bad afterll (it depends from the photo; in that one he’s bad!). I asked my mother and she agrees, but she finds Brown sexy, so her judgement could questioned
Well Dylan Jones (editor of GQ magazine) says all the ladies like David Davis. I think he appeals to the more mature ladies. I agree with your mother about Gordon Brown although he is looking a tad too old nowadays.
Guido, I think your wrong on this there is a large number of anti-Davis MPs That will unite around one candidate I think with his media swarveness he could present himself as that candidate. Davis has annoyed to many MPs with his disloyalty.
Just loook at the the way he is presenting himself in the picture above
My wife would say: “Typical bl**dy [Tory] male, let’s his wife do all the hard work carrying the child in the back pack whilst he smiles for the camera!”
14. “Well Dylan Jones (editor of GQ magazine) says all the ladies like David Davis. I think he appeals to the more mature ladies.”
you’re probably right. He’s good looking, but his look comes across as “boring” (I couldn’t explain it)
14.”I agree with your mother about Gordon Brown although he is looking a tad too old nowadays. ”
both he and Tony are starting to show their age.
What’s going on with that kid’s hair? It looks like Lego hair.
15 at Spot on S Penketh see my Posts at 6 & 7. Might you agree with me here as well? Cheers.
Despite constant pleading I have had to turn down Mike Smithson’s kind offer to take up the editorship of PB.com during Mike’s holiday in Ireland searching for relations of the £80 million variety.
Nevertheless I have persauded a duo to share the onerous responsibilities of the editorship and can now exclusively reveal the new editors as :
http://www.69workshop.com/~mpelle4456/mt/static_files/images/best_buddies.jpg
“This guy is a communications professional and we think that this will help him enormously ”
There’re people who are great doing PR for others, but not for himself (see Mandelson).
16 Tabman Did you have plain lemon juice for breakfast today?
Tory Oops 1 . Lord Saatchi is to charge the Tories £1.5 million for helping to run their campaign that he later denounced as useless . Nice work if you can get it . Well actually ……
http://www.timesonline.co.uk
Click on right side of page “Saatchi charges Tories £1.5M for failed campaign .
22 , Blue2win . Yes I think old Tabbers fell out of the wrong side this morning . Apparently a restriction of rumpy-pumpy from Mrs Tabman is the cause !
23. He did donate £6000 to be fair though Jack. I wonder if he’ll charge interest if the payments late.
22 - as the owner of a child with the physique of a min sumo-wrestler, and a backpack not dissimilar to the one sported by Mrs Cameron, I can testify to the effort involved in carrying the little treasures around in that fashion.
Perhaps I should be generous and postulate that DC is doing his bit for equality of the sexes. Then again, it chimes with a story I’ve heard about the behaviour of a certain Devonian Tory MP towards his pregnant wife.
tabman
is it similar to the actions of Birmingham liberal MP to his pregnant assistant and his long suffering wife
27 - Stuart, “all men are bar-stewards”
Toty Oops 2 . The Tories are to introduce candidate ASBO’s or “gagging orders” on candidates to avoid hampering the leadership in the future !! A legal contract will ask all candidates to sign , in order to stop “embarrassing media stories … in general election campaigns” . Spin rules OK !!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk
Click “Britain” , scroll to and click “Full list of articles” and click 7th article “gagging orders to control candidates”
Very true Tabman
29 , Moi . “Toty Oops 2″ LOL , must be thinking of something else !!
Just after the election, on Channel 4 News, there was a segment about new Labour MPs and there was a picture of Cameron holding his daughter and going into the House of Commons. I don’t know if this is a sign of him being a new man or child abuse
32 - a scary experience at a young age is probably a good way to stop her following in his footsteps. What if she encountered John Prescott, or even Derek Conway?
29. If this rule had been introduced in the 80’s, would they have forced Ediwna Currie to sign a “I will never have sex with John Major” pledge?
32. UK politicians seems to like to show their children in every occasion.
Kennedy took his son to the count in the middle of night, I would have left him at home (and the wife too).
33. She could have worst encounters.
More Blair rumours:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,9061,1540131,00.html
According to this he will not stand for Parliament again. Does this mean an early departure? Or does it mean he will go right up to the end of this term, with his opponents given the sop that they are guaranteed to be rid of him afterwards?
Or is it all rubbish anyway?
Simon Hughes bids to be Lib Dem leader …… but not for 4 more years !! . You Tories think your leadership campaign will last a long time !! Full story :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk
Click Britain , scroll to “Full List Of Articles” and then click 17th item “Man who says Carry on Charlie…”
35. If he’ll stand down, the only thing I’m sure it’s that there’ll be an all women shortlist in Sedgefield.
29 Anti Tory spin again. They are not gagging orders but a code of conduct that gives the reasons for a candidate to be fired and these include makeing yourself look a fool and getting it reported in the media. All very sensible and they must be right as Bill Cash is opposing them. The Telegraph has a better report:”The code lists 15 grounds of which candidates can be dropped from the official approved list for selection.
These include falsification of a CV, conduct unbecoming a candidate, making public statements against the leader, being declared bankrupt and being the cause of embarrassing media coverage”. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/08/01/ntory01.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/08/01/ixhome.html
To be honest, I think nowadays strangely enough it is important as ever, if you are leader, to have a wife and family (preferably young family).
When I was in Naples earlier in the year, during the local elections, there were various posters for all the candidates - each candidate showing off his left hand, with wedding ring very prominent.
38.” making public statements against the leader”
If Labour would have used this rule, Clare Short won’t be an MP at the moment!
35 , book value . TB might do a Major and stay for 1 more parliament and then stand aside , he’s got a lot of speaking tours in the States to fit in to pay for that pad in London . And then there are the memoires !!
36 - Simon has a lot to offer the party, but his continued and damaging leadership ambitions make him very much the tragic figure that Jonathan Powell described Gordon Brown as.
38 - is that the present leader or are former leaders included too?
38 , Blue2win . You really don’t believe all that guff in the Torygraph , do you ? Anybody would think you’re preparing to be a serious alternative government !! Good grief , you’ll elect a serious contender for Prime Minister next !
[35][37][41] John Major only served in the 1997-2001 Parliament because he was trying to win the 1997 election (at least, that’s his story and he’s sticking to it). An all-woman shortlist in Sedgefield might include one C Booth, might it not. I can imagine her speech to the faithful beginning: “like you, I think this seat should be represented by a Labour MP.”
42 , book value . Simon Hughes and Gordon Brown ! Interesting analogy . Of course GB’s prospects aren’t too shabby ! Perhaps in the Labour/LibDem coalition government in 2009 PM GB will make Hughes Minister for Recycling .
“Of course GB’s prospects aren’t too shabby!”
No, they are not, but compared to how his prospects were viewed on 6 May 2005, things do seem to be going so well for Gord
39.”When I was in Naples earlier in the year, during the local elections, there were various posters for all the candidates - each candidate showing off his left hand, with wedding ring very prominent.”
but they aren’t usually pictured with their children (I think, I wasn’t in Naples during the regional elections). We barely see our first lady.
P.S.: our posters are usually very bad!
38.”the cause of embarrassing media coverage”
It’s a bit evasive rule, isn’t it?
Edwina Currie would have been deselected if she would have revealed her affair with Major when she was an MP?
Is Alan Duncan posing nude for a charity calendar considered “embarrassing media coverage”? Chris Bryant’s underwear photos and emails are considered embarrassing enough for a deselection? Jenny Tonge’s comments are considered embarrassing media coverage?
18 AT I think the boy in the wheelchair is David Cameron’s disabled son, Ivan. He suffers from PLMD.
This picture top seems to come from the Chipping Norton Net site so as its probably a local snapper I am not sure DC had much to do with the presentation.
49 - AFAICS its a standard baby’s buggy, or pushchair if you prefer, rather than a wheelchair, but I believe you’re correct about DC jr’s condition.
47 - and now a word from Hugh Cornwell:
Gordon Brown
texture like sun
Lays me down
with my mind he runs
Throughout the night
no need to fight
Never a frown
with Gordon Brown.
Ev’ry time
just like the last
On his ship tied to the mast
To distant lands
takes both my hands
Never a frown
with Gordon Brown.
Gordon Brown
Finer he tempts
Through the age he’s heading west.
From far away
stays for a day
Never a frown
with Gordon Brown.
Never a frown with Gordon Brown
47 , Sophia . True , but it’s a matter of when not if GB replaces TB. GB can just bide his time in the full knowledge that the crown is his the taking , and why make waves whilst TB’s ratings remains high with Labour voters . An orderly transfer is in all their interests.
52. It’s not a bad thing for GB that Blair’s ratings are high at the moment. So when Blair will stood down (even if it’ll be almost at the end of this term) Labour will still be in good shape and Brown will have more chances to win the next election.
John Hemming is concerned about the increased number of silent calls British people receive.
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=28782&SESSION=875
Who’s calling him, the wife or the lover?
53 , Andrea . Talking of silent telephone calls , I hear the Lib Dems are investing in a new call centre :
http://www.oldphoneman.com/images/stowgercss.jpg
BTW have you seen Teresa May’s new phones :
http:///www.ericofon.com/sale/novelty/hh/hh_tn.jpg
54- Jack, I couldn’t open your links. I’m very interested in Teresa May’s new phones: Are they leopard print phones?
54 . Lid Dem call centre :
http://www.oldphoneman.com/images/strowgercss.jpg
STOP PRESS:
Hello Magazine talks to international financier, friend of the influential and jounralist extraordinaire Jack W from his secret communications bunker deep under Hertforshire: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e4/ErnstStavroBlofeld.jpg
“I like to relax after a hard day at work by getting my hands on a little pussy.” he tells us.
STOP PRESS
Hello catches up with international financier, journalist and friend of the influential Jack W in his Hertfordshire Operations Centre: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e4/ErnstStavroBlofeld.jpg
“I like to relax with a little pu-ssy.” he tells us.
55 , Andrea . Sorry about the links . I’m having a bad dyslexia day . I read “The Guardian” this morning and there was no problem !! LOL
At last Kinkell is revealed as Mini-Me!
59 - “I am following the Lentil commodities market closely, and soon will be able to buy up all the worlds stocks to power my lentil-powered random image generator. By this move I will be able to rule ze vorld - bwah ha ha ha haaaa!!!!” he adds.
“But Dad, I don’t want to crash Google Image Search, and taunt people who eat lentils. I want to go to university.”
“An evil university?”
“I want to learn how to grow lentils and feed the world!”
“Evil lentils?”
On the assumption that this time round the IRA / Sinn Fein will finally do what they say they are going to do & the conflict finally ends & life returns to normailty in Nothern Ireland.
What are the prospects of the Unionists / Conservatives reestablishing their old alliance?
Up to the 70’s the Unionists took the Conservative whip in parliament,were a right of centre party & to all intents & purposes were an extension of the Tory party in northern Ireland,hence,the name Conservative & Unionist party.
How many Unionist MP’s (of differnt flavours) are there in northern Ireland?
62 - wasn’t it C&U because of the absorption of Liberal Unionists in the late C19th? (”Let’s take one word form our party, Conservative, and one word from yours - Unionist” … )
62 - 10 (9 DUP and 1 UUP).
64. Don’t they already usually vote against the Labour government?
62 - The problem with that is the DUP now shows no signs of disapearing post-Paisley. Its well embedded at every level of politics in Ulster. They also have, irrespective of your political views, the most impressive Unionist politicians (people like Peter Robinson and Nigel Dodds) and the last Ulster Unionist MP would likely go Labour.
Will Ian Paisley Jr become the next leader of the DUP or will go to Robinson or Dodds?
Did Sir James Kilfedder (who I think was MP for North Down)not take the Tory whip? I seem to remember his predessesor, Robert McCartney asked to take the Labour whip but was refused.
67 - If they’ve any sence they’ll go for Peter Robinson. Paisley Jnr is no where near as impressive as his father, and he’s not helped by looking so odd.
68 - yes he did.
64 - Sylvia Hermon votes with Labour probably more often than she opposes them. DUP generally oppose Labour.
69 - Robinson has some pretty disgraceful form in the past:
http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/othelem/chron/ch86.htm
(see the entry for 7th August 1986)
70. Sylvia Hermon voted with the government only once since the beginning of the new Parliament.
71 - To be fair I don’t like the guy I just think he is very able in a way that no Ulster Unionist is (although Reg Empy isn’t too bad and was one of the only UUP candidates to get a decent result in the last election).
57/59 , Tabman & book value . World-wide , Liberal Democrats make their feelings clear as Tabman and book value declare their intention of doing a “full monty” for a charity calendar :
http://www.eastmillsboro.com/images/2001Just_Say_No_1.jpg
It maybe 73 that with the Unionist Electorate having vented their spleen on Trimble, some of the more moderate may drift back enough to enable the UUP to make a modest Westminter Recovery of say One Or Two seats, say South Belfast, but as long as Paisleys is there the DUP is top for the forseeable future. After, who knows…..
Ps What’ll become of Trimble, is Blair to salve his conscience by giving him a Peerage? Or does David Trimble have ambitions this side of the Water?
74.”Tabman and book value declare their intention of doing a “full monty” for a charity calendar ”
Are you sure it’s lawful and they won’t be arrested for “gross indecency”?
“Or does David Trimble have ambitions this side of the Water?”
It would be most interesting if he did.
76 - Andrea, its more about self-preservation; since whale-hunting moratoria have been relaxed I wouldn’t want to offer a tempting target …
76 - Andrea, its more about self-preservation; since whale-hunting moratoria have been relaxed I wouldn’t want to offer a tempting target …
76 , Andrea . Well it’d certainly be an arresting sight and probably “gross” , who knows ? :
http://www.thesunmachine.net/image_archive/archive/aug/ultimate-protest.jpg
75 , Interest . I think there’s no doubt TB would offer Trimble a peerage ,after all the Good Friday buisness and the Nobel prize . Paisley might squark , but it’d do TB no harm to ignore God’s representative on Earth and Ulster.
78/79 , Tabman . A pair of whales then , or is that a bar chart of them ?
There was talk of Trimble as a future Tory leader. That would be interesting.
82 , Woody . “There was talk of Trimle being a future Tory leader”.
Who from ?? and what institution have they escaped from ?!?!
80. I thought he would offer but, i thought if so he would have if he had accepted been given one by now. Queen’s Birthday Honours have come and gone and there’s no obvious reason to wait. Who knows maybe Trimble wants to stay in the game a while longer so he can be remembered for more than the last election results in Ulster. Yet all avenues there are closed, so what does that leave?
David Trimble MP for Louth and Horncastle anyone?
84 , Interest . Frankly the games up for Trimble in Westminster now . He may decide not to accept a peerage , indeed he may already have done so . He could opt as Major has done to accept a knighthood and perhaps continue in Ulster in a re-established assembly.
85???
85 - has Tapsell said he wants to go? Somehow I expected he would cling on till he was Father of the House. (He must already feel a bit deprived since he was first elected in 1959, but the break in his service from 1964-66 means he isn’t the daddy yet.)
87. I think Sophia is suggesting that Peter Tapsell is old enough to retire and she would like to see David Trimble selected as the tory candidate.
85/87 Sophia/Interest . I get the impression that Sir Peter Tapsell is intent on sitting on the green benches whilst opening at least his fifth telegram from the Queen !
86. The game is up as far as the UUP are concerned. But he’s still a very talented and respected politician this side of the water. I reckon any party would be lucky to have him. But as you say maybe like John he’s been so badly bruised he just wants to walk away completely as leadt for now. But if he showed the slightest hint of being wooable, the Tory Party would surely be after him like a Long Dogs.
83. Can’t remember who it was Jack. Just something I remember reading once that stuck in the back of my memory.
88 , book value . OK swat or is it now “free Wily” (Oh Mrs !!) what’s the present pecking order for Father of the House ? Alan Beith must be in the top 10 , something of an achievement for a Lib Dem to serve over 30 years in the House .
90. Fifth Telegram???
I have no information that Sir Peter Tapsell will retire at the next election (he is only 75), I just used his seat as an example.
Are you all sure that Trimble is a Conservative supporter - he has supported quite activist social programmes in the past? In some interviews he has been quite clear that the UUP of today is not the same as the body that split from the Tory party in the seventies.
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/headlinenews?id=337901&cc=5739
blue2win at 38: well, just wait for the next time a Tory leader at PMQ accuses Labour of being authoritarian with our rebels…rofl! I should think that half the membership of the Commons of all parties has at some point qualified for expulsion from our respective parties on those rules. I’d say they were ridiculous and had no chance of acceptance, except that the Tories appear to have accepted it in the case of Howard Flight, so maybe they really do like an autocratic system.
Incidentally, I ran into Flight the other day - he was cheerful and said he hoped to be back.
94 , Interest . Fifth telegram = 104 years old . I had a close shave with that post , it nearly ended up “filth telegram” - now that would have made the “News of the World” !!
96… So have One Nation Conservatives.
On the main topic, Cameron has a good chance in whatever type of system the party finally decides to use and my bet is it will be MP’s only. However I think the problem he has is becoming number two in the race. Fox and Clarke could both attract high enough levels of support to knock him out, especially the latter, who may fancy that changes in the EU and his position on Iraq (which surveys show most Tory voters and I suspect members agreed with) could give him a victory in either section (remember he polled 40% last time in the members vote).
If Cameron is going to win (and against Davis I would back him) he will need to ensure that he gets other candidates to step aside and endorse him. In particular getting people like Willetts and Rifkind to back him would be a strong bonus. However what would really help in the immediate future would be if he could an endorsement from either IDS or Hague, each of whom has a committed band of supporters in the parliamentary party. In other words he needs to move from the 10 or so named backers he has to about 30 to give him the chance of grabbing that second slot.
98. The “causing embarrassing media coverage” part could be applied to many things. Who will judge if something is embarassing or not?
101. I wouldn’t mind betting Cameron and Clarke will support whichever of them makes it through, primarily because the other one is nighe certain to be David Davis and neither seems to get with him, and in Cameron’s case Clarke’s age vis Davis’s would be added incentive.
Ps There’s a Blair to Stand Down As MP story on the bbc. Can somone provide a link?
98 - Flight hopes to be back ? , Nick , for which party Nulab ?
I agree the rules , if enforced , would ensure a candidate’s list numbering in single figures . The intriguing point is that you can have a criminal record as long as it pre-dates your candidature .
96 - The UUP member of the European Parliament sits with the Conservatives in the European People’s Party centre -right grouping. Would suggest that the UUP are closer to the Tories than anything else.
103. That should be neither seems to get on with him.
104 - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4734339.stm
104. Downing Street denied that Blair is standing down as MP at the next election. He hasn’t thought about it yet.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,9061,1540455,00.html
109. Well that’s the Official Line. Still Blair hardly turns up to the Commons anyway. I doubt anyone will notice if he Steps down as an MP or not when he’s no loner Prime Minister…
109. Well that’s the Official Line. Still Blair hardly turns up to the Commons anyway. I doubt anyone will notice if he Steps down as an MP or not when he’s no longer Prime Minister…
104. I thought I read somewhere that Ken Clarke and Davis were friends.
110. If he’ll really stand down, what will Clare Short do all day without the main target of her attacks?
a) she’ll start to attack Gordon Brown
b) she’ll retire too and buy an house next to the Blairs
112. I don’t think they’re personal enemies, few are. But i can’t see Clarke backing Davis for the Leadership, umless say the only other alternative was Liam Fox, and how Likely is That???
98 Nick Palmer I don’t see clarity as authoritarian.
Candidates are volunteers and they are asked to accept a code of conduct that specifies the reasons for dismissal. This is what every good employer does these days.
Don’t you have such clarity nor match the current labour relations requirements in the New Labour party? Does the leader just throw you to the lions at a whim? Or is yours a self denying ordinance such as you will not allow financial institutions, local councillors or charities, child carers……. shall I go on?
For an MP supporting a government that believes it has the right to set and enforce national moral, civic, health and professional standards (and the use that to justify interference in every aspect of our lives on the grounds of dubious ‘fairness’ and common codes of conduct) you are going to find it difficult to shift the authoritarian nanny image onto someone else.
Its yours and you can keep it.
Tories believe in less government not more, reducing the crushing weight of regulation and legislation, making legislation the last resort not the first. And we prefer to tell our candidates up front and on record what we expect of them.
104. Downing Street denied that Blair is standing down as MP at the next election. He hasn’t thought about it yet.
He doesn’t appear to THINK about very much at all - but this doesn’t seem to stop him from DOING all these things unfortunately!
Personally I think Cameron should make a really effective Tory leader who would get the young male vote but mybe J-Lo would be better?
Imposing a code of conduct that allows someone to be sacked for “embarassing the party leader” is highly authoritarian. Disagreeing in public with the official party line on just about anything could see one sacked under that rule; as could asking the party leader a difficult question at a public meeting; or being attacked in the press (while being quite blameless).
This is a control freak’s charter, rather like a good many of the proposals in “A Twenty First Century Party”.
115. Blue2win, but the “Being the cause of embarrassing media coverage” rule could be used to deselect many candidates. Who will judge what if a media coverage is embarassing?
If a tory MP will be in “Tim Yeo situation”, will it be enough to be deselected (the media coverage will be embarassing for a conservative party)?
115 , Blue2win . That’s all well and dandy but we don’t elect MP’s to blindly follow every dictat and nuance of party policy . Party discipline is one thing but if I hadn’t known better it would look like one of those fine pieces of Nulab thinking . Anyone would think that the Prince of Darkness had removed himself from Brussels and ensconsed himself in NuSmith Square , has he ??!?!
I think there is a need for a candidate’s code but one which is carefully thought out. The Tories need to win again, and they need to stop embarrassing stories leaking out. Candidates should maintain a high standard and get on with campaigning not criticising. Disagreements should also be private not public. The rules suggested are no more draconian than any of us as an employee has to sign when we start a new job.
119.”Anyone would think that the Prince of Darkness had removed himself from Brussels and ensconsed himself in NuSmith Square , has he ??!?! ”
Well, he was the cause of embarrassing media coverage many times. He could have been left out from the candidates list.
I don’t agree Andrew. Howard Flight was the cause of some embarassing media coverage, yet he didn’t deserve the treatment he got - and what goes for an MP should go for a candidate.
I don’t think the analogy with an employee’s code of conduct is a good one - any politician worth his salt should be prepared to disagree with majority opinion in his party on occasion - as Churchill did.
Candidates re-applying for the list have been told they must sign the pledge, but that the details of it will be changed at a meeting in September… guess they’re worried about a snap election!
122. The “being the cause of some embarassing media coverage” rule is a bit stupid. Almost every tory MP could cause an “embarassing media coverage” on the Guardian!
121 , Andrea . Mandelson - “he was the cause of embarrassing media coverage” Surely not :
http://www.cartoonstock.com/lowres/ate0067l.jpg
120 - I agree with Sean (122) that the analogy with starting a new job doesn’t work. For one thing the employer is not the party but the electorate. I accept that sounds rather pompous and that party affiliation is a major reason for the person being there in the first place, but making MPs/candidates subject to what is effectively an employment contract with the Tory (or any) party undermines the link still further.
We should start to make a list of all tory MPs who caused “embarrassing media coverage” or “embarrassed the party leader” (and the degree of embarrassment caused).
John Bercow usually shows too much disagreement. Alan Duncan with his “tory taliban” comments could cause embarrassment to the party and Theresa May with her “nasty party” comment too.
Time Yeo’s love children were very embarrassing.
If a socially conservative candidate will become the next leader, will Aland Duncan be closed in room with his duckies? And if the new leader will be socially liberal, will Ann Widdecombe be stopped to talk?
122 Sean Too many Tory MPs and candidates in the recent past have needed to be better team players that do not blurt out daft statements to the press or make silly mistakes with photos or make cockily misleading inferences to closed meetings that simply damage the party. Quite often it seems to have been the result of a selfish disregard for the wider benefit and success of the party. Like the too frequent appearances of the assassins on parliament green. That really has to stop.
No-one would want MPs to be clones of the leader, spouting the party mantra on every issue like NuLab, but if they accept the party label they must support the party campaign and policy and the leader. There are forums for debate and discussion that can and should be used, not the tabloid press. The 2005 campaign was more disciplined but still pretty sloppy.
The problem is caused by a small minority who think the rest of us should provide a platform and support for them because of who they are. Bumptious.
An MP is a servant of the electorate and has a duty to understand today’s political environment and to ensure that in everything she does she does not damage the work of so many others and the party that supports her candidacy.
A code of conduct requiring that is not authoritarian but simple political and personnel sense. Such a code needs constant revision and updating, to make it ever more useful, accurate and precise. That is what we should concentrate on, not attempting to throw out a sensible initiative wholesale.
116. see my post at 111 in response to Andrea at 109.
“122 Sean Too many Tory MPs and candidates in the recent past have needed to be better team players that do not blurt out daft statements to the press or make silly mistakes with photos or make cockily misleading inferences to closed meetings that simply damage the party. Quite often it seems to have been the result of a selfish disregard for the wider benefit and success of the party. Like the too frequent appearances of the assassins on parliament green. That really has to stop.”
I wouldn’t dispute that. In fact, I’d be delighted if some of the serial troublemakers were deselected by their parties. The problem is, as I see it, that the party is veering from one extreme to the other.
The party already has the power to suspend useless/disloyal candidate and MPs. It should use it judiciously.
“I wouldn’t dispute that. In fact, I’d be delighted if some of the serial troublemakers were deselected by their parties. The problem is, as I see it, that the party is veering from one extreme to the other.
The party already has the power to suspend useless/disloyal candidate and MPs. It should use it judiciously. ”
I totally agree.
130.”I’d be delighted if some of the serial troublemakers were deselected by their parties.”
even if you’ll agree with the troublemakers?
Deselecting the troublemakers (or something like this) won’t magically transform the tories in a vote winning machine.
The Labour party is full of troublemakers! I’d say that very few are concerned abour Clare Short’s rantings. With the tory rules, she would have been deselected more than once. I suppose that Bob Marshall Andrews show on the election night would have been enough for a deselection with those tory rules.
Does anyone have a total headcount of declared Tory MP’s in the Leadership race?
Ps Has anyone declared for Clarke or Rifkind?
There arenn’t all that many MP’s I would like the party to deselect but I wouldn’t shed too many tears if the local party in Buckingham gave John Bercow the boot. The Tories in Surrey Heath showed how effective deselection can be in actually bolstering the party by allowing Michael Gove to stand in that seat.
I do think that the party has lost its dicipline and loyalty and if making an exaple of a few trouble makers helps bring that back then I’m all for it.
133 - Just Clarke now. Duncan pulled out.
135. No sorry i mean’t declared supporters of the Leadership Candidates so we can see how many public pledges of Support each has thus far.
134. well, I find John Bercow one of few decent figure you have (in his new incarnation). Probablty that’s why many tories don’t like him.
Why many tories would like to see him deselected? Because he isn’t afraid to say his opinion and he’s not a loyalist?
These are the qualities of a good MP!
And he seems to be an hard working MP (good votes turnout, lots of questions asked and he usually speaks in many debates).
I’m not surprised that you’re stuck with your 31-33%. It seems that everyone who dares to say something different needs to be thrown out of the party!
New Labour’s strenght was the hability to build a coalition which went from Shaun Woodward to Jeremy Corbyn. The tories seem more busy to deselect everyone who doesn’t agree with the leader.
I thought I might generate some discussion by posting this story I found on the guardian media website from one of the German Press Barons.
German newspaper boss Mathias Döpfner, one of the disappointed bidders for the Daily Telegraph last year, has delivered a withering assault on European “appeasement” and “cowardice” in the face of Islamist terrorism.
Dr Döpfner, the chief executive of Axel Springer, which owns the conservative Die Welt and mass-market tabloid Bild, traced a long history of European appeasement from the 1930s to the present day.
“Europe still hasn’t learned,” Dr Döpfner wrote, in an article for the Australian newspaper, entitled “Let’s face facts, Europe’s being run by cowards”.
“Rather than protecting democracy in the Middle East, European appeasement, camouflaged behind the fuzzy word equidistance, often seems to countenance suicide bombings in Israel by fundamentalist Palestinians.
“Similarly, it generates a mentality that allows Europe to ignore the almost 500,000 victims of Saddam Hussein’s torture and murder machinery and, motivated by the self-righteousness of the peace movement, to harangue George W Bush as a warmonger.”
He attacked German proposals to create an official state holiday for Muslims: “I wish I were joking, but I am not. A substantial fraction of Germany’s government - and, if polls are to be believed, the German people - actually believe that creating an official state Muslim holiday will somehow spare us from the wrath of fanatical Islamists.
“One cannot help but recall Britain’s Neville Chamberlain on his return from Munich, waving that laughable treaty signed by Hitler, and declaring the advent of peace in our time.”
He characterised Islamist violence against western targets as “a sort of crusade… an especially perfidious campaign consisting of systematic attacks by Islamists, focused on civilians, that is directed against our free, open western societies, and that is intent on their utter destruction”.
He praised George Bush for his “moral conviction” and for taking risks with the American economy to wage the war on terror.
In contrast, Europe was unable to formulate a competent response to the challenge posed by extremism, he said.
“These days, Europe reminds me of an old woman who, with shaking hands, frantically hides her last pieces of jewellery when she notices a robber breaking into a neighbour’s house. Appeasement? That is just the start of it. Europe, thy name is Cowardice.”
Dr Döpfner, who has a degree in musicology, became Axel Springer’s chief executive three years ago after a career in journalism.
He led a team of executives to London last year in an attempt to buy the Telegraph group, which was eventually sold to the Barclay brothers.
In an interview during the bidding process, he said company was not an “opinion machine” and gave its newspapers freedom over their editorial lines.
Nevertheless, the company has a set of five principles, including commitments “to reject all forms of political extremism” and “to support the transatlantic alliance, and solidarity with the United States of America in the common values of free nations”.
The group is also committed “to promote reconciliation of Jews and Germans and support the vital rights of the state of Israel”.
Springer says its principles “serve as the fundamentals for publishing activities” and “paint a liberal picture of the world”.
Andrea 137, i know you have Left Wing Sympathies but i think you are being a bit charitably one eyed to how brutal Labour can be. Remember Paul Marsden’s claims? The repeated attempts to oust Dunwoodt from here Select committee Chairmanship. The firing of the Civil Servant who leaked the asylum story and on an on.
Re Bercow no one disputes his right to deviate from the line, heck even Cameron has criticised some aspects of the election campaign, but even you must admit that he really uses language that is never less than venomous, and could be a Daily Mirror Editorial, and only ever appears in the press to attack his own party. When was the last time Mr Bercow, actually Attacked The Labour Party?
138 - My reading of this is that Axel Springer is looking to expand its publishing empire on the other side of the Atlantic and is anxious not to run into regulatory problems.
Andrea, your talk of New Labour embracing J Corbyn MP was a TRIFLE disingenouous - I am sure you know full well that they just couldn’t find a way to throw him and the few others of his ilk who remain out (yet).
Andrew Milne, surely that Springer ‘aims’ list puts it entirely in line wit the philosophy(sic) of the Bilderberg Group, a sinister (sic)group of far right wingers of all parties in many countries devoted to maintaining US hegemony, and oligopoly of big business internationally, who would make Georgie Best seem well on the left?
139 - “When was the last time Mr Bercow, actually Attacked The Labour Party?”
A quick search of Hansard reveals that the answer (from the floor of the Commons at least) is 20 July 2005 when he spoke on deportations to Zimbabwe and criticised the Home Secretary specifically and Government policy on the issue generally.
“Bilderberg Group, a sinister (sic)group of far right wingers of all parties in many countries devoted to maintaining US hegemony, and oligopoly of big business internationally, who would make Georgie Best seem well on the left?”
I believe that well-known far-rightist Denis Healey is a leading member.
136 - Whoops! sorry.
141. Quite as Private Eye has said there about 20-30 MP’s whose fame gives them a certain amount of protection Corbyn, and in the past Benn etc. Therefore as it would attract too much attention to do them in they are rubbished by spin instead. Also better to have them LBJ Style pissing in than pissing out, and hyaving a few real socialists in the PLP helps keep Left Wing True Belivers deluded into thinking there is s still a place for real Scoialism in the Labour Party. But for less famous MP’s the knee cappings and political threats come out in force.
Also Labour is more subtle preferring to weed out trouble makers at the selection stage vis the imposition of an all wimmin shortlist 9ie packed full Blairite Airheads) in a crude attempt to block Peter Law, after Llew Smith had been led to believe by announcing his early departure his Local Constituency would be Left Free To decide wjom it wantesd.
The Bilderberg group has also been accused of being behind the drive for a single European government, Catholicism, freemasonry, and David Icke’s lizard people.
139- I wouldn’t argue against ousting Bercow from frontbench’s positions. But deselecting him as a candidate is too much IMO. No one in the Labour party tried to deselect Clare Short (at least I think) and Short made some serious claims against Blair and the government.
If Labour will try to deselect some of their MPs only because they’re not loyalist, I would attack them like I’m doing with the tories. Infact I don’t like when they try to stop leftwinged candidate to be selected (I think they made it a couple of times).
I agree with you that every party try to get rid of troublemakers (some of them are good constituency MPs), but the tories with those rules seem to go a bit over the top.
and then when I start attacking the tories, I’m not able to stop
141. I’m still surprised that 4 new Campaign Group MPs were able to be selected (and elected)
139 Interest You are right. Bercow is a good, if extreme example. He seems to be a member of the opposition to the conservatives yet his thumping majority comes, largely, because he stands on the Tory ticket. A campaign to change something is one thing, but standing on a ticket and then giving every appearance of consistently trying to demolish that party ought be a reason for deselection.
As far as I know, at the moment, there is no agreed code he is supposed to follow as a party candidate or constituency MP, as distinct from a code as a member of the house. He would probably use the defence of several other trouble makers or bumptious nuisances: what is wrong with me doing this, we are a democratic party and I am an MP and must represent my constituents as best as I can and speak as my conscience tells me. While true, this is disingenuous.
There are shades of Conservative MPs , and long may it be so, but they are all blue: whatever the shade they should honour the implicit pledge they made when elected as a Tory candidate. And they must, in all justice, be told what will get them the chop and agree to those rules. In this respect it is like employment: the Tory party is going to put its treasure and its troops at the service of these candidates to get them elected to do a job for the constituency. They stand as party, not independent, candidates. The people who do the work and those that vote for the candidate can reasonably expect to get what was advertised.
148 - “A campaign to change something is one thing, but standing on a ticket and then giving every appearance of consistently trying to demolish that party ought be a reason for deselection.”
But there’s no reason why his constituency association couldn’t have deselected him, is there? Surrey Heath didn’t need any particular emergency to do so - they just decided Hawkins did not meet up to what they required of him.
145.”and hyaving a few real socialists in the PLP helps keep Left Wing True Belivers deluded into thinking there is s still a place for real Scoialism in the Labour Party”
Exactly. I suppose that some voters share Bercow’s views. If he’ll be thrown out, why should those voters still vote tories? They couldn’t even pretend that there’s an hope that the party will change.
I personally would like to see a socially liberal tory party, but I wouldn’t want to see Ann Widdecombe thrown away. I know that some voters share her views and they should see someone like them in the party.
“Also Labour is more subtle preferring to weed out trouble makers at the selection stage vis the imposition of an all wimmin shortlist 9ie packed full Blairite Airheads)”
How many shortlist were imposed in Labour held seats?
Now labour senior officials want to persuade veteran MPs to retire, because they said new young candidates are needed. Someone suggested that in doing so they would get rid of half of the usual rebels.
148. “There are shades of Conservative MPs , and long may it be so, but they are all blue: whatever the shade they should honour the implicit pledge they made when elected as a Tory candidate”
I’m sure that Bercow will tell you that he’s a true TORY candidate.
150. “How many shortlist were imposed in Labour held seats?”
Women shortlist.
149. Book Value, I’m still shocked that Peterborough Labour party tried to deselect our Helen Clark…..
146 , Sean . Discussing the Bilderberg Group reminds me some years back the Dowager Lady Jack was thumbing through her subsciption copy of “This England” (The house magazine of the John Major’s warm beer and cycling district nurses of the 50’s in soft focus pictures) when great guffows of laughter sang out from her morning room . After enjoying pictures of thatched cottages , village greens and deeds of daring do she had read this rant about Alec Douglas-Home , Denis Healy and Prince Bernard of the Netherlands being at the forefront of this sinister and secret organization dedicated to world domination through …… well through democracy !!
“Oh my word Jack” says she , “such splendid church spires mixed with such a laughter inducing , spleen splitting political commentary , it reminds me of Church of Scotland politcs” Promptly returning to her “Aberdeen Press and Journal” and kedgeree ! Soon after she cancelled her copy and replaced it with a copy of Classic Cars ….. don’t ask !!!!
Interest at 139/145: I’m puzzled by your s*xist belief that women are “Blairite airheads” - this will be news to Diane Abbott, Lynne Jones, Clare Short… All-women shortlists are controversial, of course, but I’ve never heard it said that they produce a sift in the left-right spectrum.
Really I think you and blue2win are trying to defend the indefensible. Of course there are Labour people who snarl with rage when they see someone elected on the Labour ticket and slagging off the party - I remember spitting myself when a well-known “left wing” critic have a full page anti-Government assault printed on the Mail’s leader page. But I speak as someone who is normally loyal when I say that I would not be willing to be an MP on the basis that I could be effectively dismissed for saying anything that the party leader considered either critical or embarrassing: it’s arbitrary, unpredictable and humiliating. I think that if the rules survive in this form, it will lead to a marked decline in the quality of applicants: few self-respecting people will agree to serve on this basis.
149 Book Value In any party there are constituency associations or committees that seem to be far too acquiescent or dozy. Shaun Woodward’s parachute jump into a Labour stronghold, for example.
There may be confusion about roles, too. And in constituencies with some of the biggest majorities the association may well have become rather too complacent or sluggish. I have no idea whether this applies to any particular association today but when, in the not-too-distant past, I have struggled to pay dues in an association that has a good long standing Tory majority, I began to wonder how open it is to new people and ideas, and how vigorous and dynamic it is.
Re. 84, Charles Moore suggested it the morning after the 2001 General Election.
If Trimble wants to become a Conservative MP, he’s welcome to come to Staffordshire Moorlands, where rumours are flying around that Marcus Hayes (the candidate this year and in 01) will not fight the seat next time. On the face of it, this is surprising, when boundary changes will give the Conservatives an inbuilt 3,300 majority even assuming no swing to the Conservatives at the next GE, but Hayes may well have his eye on Congleton, a constituency in which he was once a district councillor (although whether the association there will forgive him for contriving to lose the Holmes Chapel ward after just one year, and a year