Baxter prediction: Labour majority 118
August 2nd, 2005
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But why are the pollsters being less transparent?
In what we think is Martin Baxter’s first prediction for the next General Election a big increase in Labour seats is projected from the calculation which involves applying the average swing in the latest polls to what happened on May 5th and applying them on a uniform national basis in each seat.
The Baxter calculator is one of the great tools for those who try to forecast and bet on elections but it has to be handled with care. In the run-up to May 5th it was predicting Labour majorities of well in excess of 100 and is very vulnerable to polling errors which continue to overstate Labour.
In his commentary on what happened in May Martin writes “Electoral Calculus predicted the winner correctly, but overestimated the majority. This was caused both by opinion poll error, regional swing and local factors.”
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One problem at the moment is that the pollsters are being far less transparent about their methodology than they were in the run-up to the General Election.
Under the British Polling Council rules there is a requirement for the detailed data from each published survey to be made available in two working days but in some cases this is not happening. Two weeks ago today the July Guardian ICM poll was published. The main data set has yet to be published. I emailed the firm a week ago and have had no response.
Pollsters that use randomised unsolicited phone calls usually have to use complex maths to make sure that what they have found is representative. One assumption that’s made that leads to Labour over-stating is that more people are likely to “remember” voting Labour than actually did so. To judge each survey we need to look at the detailed figures to examine the scale of this.
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Come on ICM - get your full data published
Mike Smithson
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Since Baxter was so far off about the Labour majoirty in this years election can’t we surmise that he is once again wrong on a prediction more then four years in advance?
Does Baxter take into acount the coming boundary changes? Or the problems that might develope regionally?
London and the South West and East did see a bigger swing to the Conservative then the North. The prediciton may or may not be correct, but to make it now is silly.
Also I has an outsider find British polling unreliable and sometimes outright bias in favor of certain political parties.
Why is this?
Heinrich -dead right such predictions at this stage are absurd. If you want some confirmation of your suspicion on pollster bias, just read Andrew Cooper’s article in the Times today. Or anything written by Bob Worcester of Mori.
On the homefront the election campaign is now in full force. On Saturday Merkel and Schroder failed to reach an agreement on the number of televised debates that the chancellor candidates would participate in. Merkel already has agreed to one t.v debate, but Schroder wants two. The final decision regarding the format and number of debates will have to be made this week to give the broadcasters enough time to organize and schedule the events. Merkel should stick with just the one in my opinion regardless of the bullying from Schroder and the SPD also why aren’t the Green, FDP and Left/PDS candidates not allowed to presipate?
The polls are pretty stable with the CDU/CSU away ahead of the other parties with between 42-44% of the vote, the SPD stuck in the mid to high 20’s, the Left/PDS with 11% or 12% and the Green and FDP at 9% and 8%.
My own campaign is going well. Im getting a very positive reaction when I go canvassing even in the strong SPD areas of the constituency. It is clear that even the Left/PDS vote will be strong here amongst the socailist spliting the SDP vote and allowing the FDP to coming in second in this constituency and putting the SDP candidate in 4th place.
So things are looking good but it’s still more then a month until Sept 18.
Thanks for the update, Heinrich - very interesting. With British eyes it’s unusual to see the incumbent wanting more debates than the challenger, but that obviously reflects the strong CDU position at this stage - Schroeder has little to lose and as the more experienced debater potentially more to gain. The public may see a reluctance to debate twice as a sign of lack of confidence, though?
On the theme of the thread: the polls, local by-elections and general mood do suggest that Labour has modestly consolidated its position since the election. Hardly surprising as the Opposition parties, especially the Conservatives, are currently understandably preoccupied with themselves, and I also don’t think it tells us much about the outlook. The main practical effect has been to sink the ‘Blair must go now’ lobby.
From a quick scan, I don’t think Baxter has included any boundary changes for the next election. Not unreasonable, as they aren’t completely finalised, but even if the poll were correct, it’s not as good for Labour as it looks.
For those who like quizzes:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1540635,00.html
6 , Sophia . I do hope you realise that under the new code of conduct for Conservative posters on the site reading the Guardian before 10.00am is a crime punishable by spending 48 hours in a dark room with Tabman whilst wearing sandals and a false beard and constucting “Winning Here” placards . Such a horrible fate for one so young !!
7. “punishable by spending 48 hours in a dark room with Tabman whilst wearing sandals and a false beard and constucting “Winning Here” placards . ”
She have to create a couple of barcharts showing that the Libdems could win in Kensington and Chelsea.
btw, I didn’t know any answer to that quiz. I googled and I found to asnwers (the one with a prison sentences and the tennis instructor).
I don’t know any of the answers - that is why I thought somebody else might be able to find out for the answers for me… what are the two you found out then Andrea!?!
8. ok, now I know who “anagram” is.
Is Patrick Mercer who didn’t serve in the Territorial Army?
10 - it’s either Mercer or Selous.
Where’s Nick Palmer when you need him?
The only one I have found out so far is that John Bercow is a qualified tennis instructor. My life is now complete.
9. John Bercow was the tennis instructor. Lembit Opik is called “the human anagram”. David Hamilton was jailed for 2 months after a strike (he was aminer).
10 - it is Mercer. Selous has been in the TA.
So we just need to know who isn’t the son/daughter of the clergy. Gordon Brown is, obviously. All profiles of him must by law include the phrase “son of the manse”.
11. Selous was a territory army official:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/vote_2005/england/4518811.stm
So it’s Mercer.
8 , Andrea . Producing a bar chart showing the Lib Dems about to triumph in Kensington & Chelsea would be childs play to seasoned Rennard followers . Indeed even the challenge of a by-election victory in North Korea is on the cards as I hear that Pyongyang South and Bermondsey is a likely Lib Dem gain after a highly “focused” campaign based on the new Lib Dem policy of selling nuclear fuel rods in exchange for the introduction of local income tax ! Turnout is expected to be 105%.
14- Theresa May’s father is Rev. Hubert Brasier. I discovered that Teresa May (without the H) is the name of a soft porno star too. The BBC website warned people not to confuse them (I would like to know why they thought they could be confused!)
If there was Pro-Tory swing this time, then howexactly does Baxter Calculate an increased Labour Majority via that basis next timess?
14. Robert Key is the son of the Bishop of Sherborne. So the answer is Sarah Teather.
17 - Apparently quite a lot of post intended for Theresa May goes to Teresa May, and vice versa.
Heinrich Martz @ 3:
You wrote:
“Merkel already has agreed to one t.v debate, but Schroder wants two.”
Given that there were two T.V. debates last time, one each for public and private T.V., and that the broadcasters are keen to have the same arrangement this time, would not the following be more accurate:
“Schröder has already agreed to two t.v debates, but Merkel says she only has time for one.”
There are even CDU members who are not happy with Merkel’s reluctance to agree to two debates. And what do you think of Schröder’s latest suggestion that Stoiber should fill one slot if Merkel really doesn’t have the time?
Is Teresa May a Soft Conservative?
22 - If Teresa May was a candidate in your constitutency, how would she tempt you to vote Tory?
Sean Fear [20] - yes, and we know which one of them told you so!
23. but if they’ll select Teresa May as a candidate (although she could be deselected, because she’ll be the cause of embarassing media coverage), we will see her campaigning with Widdy?
From the Times. Could the Japanese Govt be about to fall? Could the DPJ make history? iS THE tIMES OVEREGGING IT?
Party row ‘drove MP to suicide’
From Richard Lloyd Parry in Tokyo
YOJI NAGAOKA seemed to have every reason to stay alive. After a shining career, with degrees from Tokyo University and Harvard Business School, he had worked as a civil servant and entered the Japanese parliament two years ago. At the age of 54, he was spoken of as a future leader.
What then made him hang himself yesterday? The answer appears to be something that on the face of it sounds trivial — the privatisation of Japan’s postal services. In Tokyo, however, for the past few weeks this has been a source of intense political conflict and debate.
It threatens to bring down the Government of Junichiro Koizumi and to split his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Within the next few days it could precipitate a snap election, and bring an end to dozens of prominent political careers.
In dispute are a set of Bills to privatise the country’s postal services, including savings and insurance businesses with deposits worth 355,000 billion yen (£1,800 billion). The vote represents the fulfilment of a lifelong ambition for Mr Koizumi, who has staked his political career on breaking up an immensely powerful institution.
In many parts of Japan, country post masters are de facto local bosses, capable of making or breaking a parliamentary candidate. It is their influence over Mr Koizumi’s MPs that has so divided the LDP. This month in the lower house of the Japanese Diet, 37 members of the party voted against the Bills and 14 abstained — although Mr Koizumi won by only 5 votes, after threatening to dissolve parliament and call an election if the Bills failed.
Mr Nagaoka was a member of a faction led by Shizuka Kamei, a bitter foe of postal privatisation and Mr Koizumi. For a while, Mr Nagaoka indicated that he would oppose the Bills but, under intense pressure from party whips, he betrayed his faction at the last minute.
It was this decision, and the reproaches it generated, that appear to have driven Mr Nagaoka to suicide. His wife found him hanging from his tie yesterday morning, and he died in hospital hours later.
Yesterday politicians on both sides were blaming one another for his death.
The postal Bills must now be endorsed by the upper house of the Diet, where they face an equally rough ride. Most political commentators and MPs find it impossible to predict whether Mr Koizumi will be defeated and bring the LDP down with him, or narrowly win to live on as a wounded and vulnerable leader.
Party row ‘drove MP to suicide’
From Richard Lloyd Parry in Tokyo
YOJI NAGAOKA seemed to have every reason to stay alive. After a shining career, with degrees from Tokyo University and Harvard Business School, he had worked as a civil servant and entered the Japanese parliament two years ago. At the age of 54, he was spoken of as a future leader.
What then made him hang himself yesterday? The answer appears to be something that on the face of it sounds trivial — the privatisation of Japan’s postal services. In Tokyo, however, for the past few weeks this has been a source of intense political conflict and debate.
It threatens to bring down the Government of Junichiro Koizumi and to split his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Within the next few days it could precipitate a snap election, and bring an end to dozens of prominent political careers.
In dispute are a set of Bills to privatise the country’s postal services, including savings and insurance businesses with deposits worth 355,000 billion yen (£1,800 billion). The vote represents the fulfilment of a lifelong ambition for Mr Koizumi, who has staked his political career on breaking up an immensely powerful institution.
In many parts of Japan, country post masters are de facto local bosses, capable of making or breaking a parliamentary candidate. It is their influence over Mr Koizumi’s MPs that has so divided the LDP. This month in the lower house of the Japanese Diet, 37 members of the party voted against the Bills and 14 abstained — although Mr Koizumi won by only 5 votes, after threatening to dissolve parliament and call an election if the Bills failed.
Mr Nagaoka was a member of a faction led by Shizuka Kamei, a bitter foe of postal privatisation and Mr Koizumi. For a while, Mr Nagaoka indicated that he would oppose the Bills but, under intense pressure from party whips, he betrayed his faction at the last minute.
It was this decision, and the reproaches it generated, that appear to have driven Mr Nagaoka to suicide. His wife found him hanging from his tie yesterday morning, and he died in hospital hours later.
Yesterday politicians on both sides were blaming one another for his death.
The postal Bills must now be endorsed by the upper house of the Diet, where they face an equally rough ride. Most political commentators and MPs find it impossible to predict whether Mr Koizumi will be defeated and bring the LDP down with him, or narrowly win to live on as a wounded and vulnerable leader.
Party row ‘drove MP to suicide’
From Richard Lloyd Parry in Tokyo
YOJI NAGAOKA seemed to have every reason to stay alive. After a shining career, with degrees from Tokyo University and Harvard Business School, he had worked as a civil servant and entered the Japanese parliament two years ago. At the age of 54, he was spoken of as a future leader.
What then made him hang himself yesterday? The answer appears to be something that on the face of it sounds trivial — the privatisation of Japan’s postal services. In Tokyo, however, for the past few weeks this has been a source of intense political conflict and debate.
It threatens to bring down the Government of Junichiro Koizumi and to split his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Within the next few days it could precipitate a snap election, and bring an end to dozens of prominent political careers.
In dispute are a set of Bills to privatise the country’s postal services, including savings and insurance businesses with deposits worth 355,000 billion yen (£1,800 billion). The vote represents the fulfilment of a lifelong ambition for Mr Koizumi, who has staked his political career on breaking up an immensely powerful institution.
In many parts of Japan, country post masters are de facto local bosses, capable of making or breaking a parliamentary candidate. It is their influence over Mr Koizumi’s MPs that has so divided the LDP. This month in the lower house of the Japanese Diet, 37 members of the party voted against the Bills and 14 abstained — although Mr Koizumi won by only 5 votes, after threatening to dissolve parliament and call an election if the Bills failed.
Mr Nagaoka was a member of a faction led by Shizuka Kamei, a bitter foe of postal privatisation and Mr Koizumi. For a while, Mr Nagaoka indicated that he would oppose the Bills but, under intense pressure from party whips, he betrayed his faction at the last minute.
It was this decision, and the reproaches it generated, that appear to have driven Mr Nagaoka to suicide. His wife found him hanging from his tie yesterday morning, and he died in hospital hours later.
Yesterday politicians on both sides were blaming one another for his death.
The postal Bills must now be endorsed by the upper house of the Diet, where they face an equally rough ride. Most political commentators and MPs find it impossible to predict whether Mr Koizumi will be defeated and bring the LDP down with him, or narrowly win to live on as a wounded and vulnerable leader.
v
26 - I saw that this morning - how sad.
Blair’s electoral agent said Blair will stand down as MP at the next election:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4737927.stm
7 - 9 congratulations to Jack W for managing to get “Tabman” in a paragraph without “lentil” or “quiche”, but straight to the bottom of the class for using the word “beard”.
15 - Official T.A. or Provisional T.A.?
28. Tabman, to be honest, I don’t even know the difference between Official T.A. and Provisional T.A.
30 - I think it may be a joke Andrea…
29 , Tabman . Oopps , on restricted rations still !! In honour of your impending victory in DPRK I shall refrain from the Q & L words until the declaration .
32 - given the amount of time that will take (”Hell freezing over”?) I can live with that
31. Sophia, sadly I sometimes completely miss some jokes here. :/)
34 - it’s based on the Official IRA (which abandoned violence in the early 1970s and some of whose descendants, e.g. Prionsias de Rossa, are now in the Irish Labour Party) vs the Provisional IRA (the “current” IRA).
34 - Andrea (never explain … :roll:) - my apologies. You used the word official rather than officer (a subtle distinction and not one you’d necessarilly recognise). Consider my wrist duly slapped.
35. thanks
36. ops, you’re right. I posted without thinking too much. “Officer” is translated in Italian with “ufficiale” and it’s more similar to “official” than to “officer” (so it came out naturally to write “official”).
Andrea, to complete today’s lesson: it’s “territorial army” rather than “territory army”.
Re: 28 - we shouldn’t be surprised. Blair said he will serve a full third term. He could still do that and not stand as an MP at the next election. Labour would choose a new leader at the start of the election campaign, who would become PM if the Party won a fourth majority.
The election to choose a leader could be held immediately before the dissolution with the new leader taking the helm at the start of the election campaign (early April 2009?)
39 , Stodge . Bearing in mind Labours prolonged electoral college system I think it unlikely that the process would be so tight to an election . Further tactically it would be better for the new PM to be in place for 6-12 months to enjoy the advatages of incumbency .
Accordingly if an election is set for May 2009 I would suggest a leadership contest in either spring or autumn 2008 - and a coronation at the party conference and then GB , sorry the new PM , goes to the country in the late spring 09 for a new mandate .
38. Thanks, Andy. I need to study more!
39. BBC news report’s headline is misleading. It’s only the opinion of his agent, they don’t have discussed it.
If the next election will be in 2009, will it likely take place before or after the June’s Euro Election?
41 - most likely before. Any time after early June seems to be considered risky because of holidays etc. I think they would probably stick with May.
42- with “after”, I was thinking October.
Will all parties avoid to have the GE and Euro Elections together?
41. Highly likely to take place in conjunction with the Euros, maximise turnout avoid any embarrasing losses prior to the GE. That is unless they are in trouble and want to run it long to try make up ground say into the autumn or even the following year. But such was the unhappy experience of the Last Labour Govt to go the distance i think Autumn 2009 or even Winter that Year is as Late as they’d Go regardless of the Situation they are in.
41 , Andrea . Blair and his agent are pretty close and this report might be kite flying to gauge reaction .
The Euro-election does not have to co-incide with a GE ,indeed given Labours poor performance at Euro elections and the greater profile of UKIP at them , Labour would be wise to keep the two elections seperate.
43, 44 - again, Autumn tends to be considered risky too because of the weather. I think unless there are very special circumstances it will be May, or possibly April.
I think it is over 30 years since we had a GE that wasn’t between 1 April and 15 June?
45.”The Euro-election does not have to co-incide with a GE ,indeed given Labours poor performance at Euro elections and the greater profile of UKIP at them , Labour would be wise to keep the two elections seperate”
46.”Autumn tends to be considered risky too because of the weather”
I forgot you vote on weekdays. Here, with the majority of people voting on Sunday, a sunny day could be damaging (people could go out for the weekend).
People could be encouraged to split their vote: a major party for the GE and a minor party (Green/UKIP/…) for the Euro Elections like what happened with London mayor and London Assembly (If I remember the results correctly, the Greens went better in the Assembly results than their candidate for mayor).
47 - I don’t think Labour would be too bothered about ticket-splitting for the Euro elections - since the introduction of PR for these, the actual number of seats that can realistically be gained or lost is small. And then the UK results are not that likely to affect control of the EU parliament. The bigger risk is that having the EU elections on the same day makes Europe more prominent in the campaign and helps the Tories get out the vote.
On the other hand, they might gamble on it causing Tory votes to leach to UKIP. Interesting, but I think they will go for safety first and May.
I think it will be 2010, but if 2009 I can’t see it being the same day as the Euros. The Electoral Commission would be against it quite apart from the possible contamination for a nominally pro-EU government. It’s pretty unlikly to be later in the year as the new register is not issued until Dec. Though we now have rolling updates very few people actually bother to do so (in Exeter it was roughly 170 a month out of 85k electors so 0.2% - not even remotely approaching the real rate at which people move/die etc).
47 , Andrea . Any thought of vote splitting tends to have the major parties having a coronary . No , keep elections seperate where possible is the order of the day.
48.” don’t think Labour would be too bothered about ticket-splitting for the Euro elections ”
yes, I agree and if someone wants to “punish” Labour (without fearing to let the tories in), he/she could do voting Greens in the Euro.
Back on thread, I think we should think of the Baxter calculation as a translation of the polls from votes to seats. I don’t think anyone is claiming that current opinion polls amount to a prediction of the number of seats. And we should take into account that newly elected governments often get a boost for a while, e.g. typically 6 months although 1997 was an exception; and parties in leadership contests often do worse. I wouldn’t have predicted the Lib Dems to be up though.
And as for the debates in Germany, I thought it was conventional wisdom that the person in the lead, rather than the incumbent, was the reluctant one because debates can have a big impact.
52 , Gavin . I’m a bit surprised at the poll ratings of the Lib Dems especially as their post election profile has been low save the limited national coverage of Cheadle . Perhaps the Conservative leadership is helping and the Iraq factor still playing . Otherwise I’m a bit stumped on that one . CK’s critics must have been hoping for a hefty fall , but he does semm to confound them through his policy of selective inaction.
As for timing of GEs and other elections, people have suggested lots of possible motivations but I’m sure there are many more possible logics out there, so it’s difficult to predict.
Thatcher used to wait for the results of the locals, but those are likely to be so bad for Labour that Blair would be giving his opponents momentum if he didn’t have the GE on the same day or before.
As a democrat it’s good to have elections on the same day where possible because the turnout is higher. In the case of the locals I would have thought a national election would be unaffected by a local election but would ensure that a lot of the governing party’s local councillors held their seats. In the case of the Euros, I think a GE on the same day would be likely to raise the profile of Europe as Jack says, which might be bad for Labour because pro-EU, but also bad for the Tories if they still have any splits. I don’t think many votes would go UKIP in a GE. Of course Labour would do better in the Euros on the same day as the general, or just after the general, but party HQs don’t much care about that.
I can’t see that the weather argument would prevent Labour going for the Autumn if they needed time to recover. And although I don’t remember, I don’t imagine going to the end in 1979 clearly produced a worse result for Labour? They only just lost in the event, and presumably would have been underdogs any time in the previous year. Similarly in 1997. Although it was a Tory disaster it’s not at all obvious that it was worse than it would have been a year earlier.
On the high Lib Dem polling. Could it be that this is just people who would have voted Lib Dem but were scared into voting Labour by Labour’s claim that if one in ten Labour voters stayed at home the Tories would win? Or perhaps it’s anti-Blair vote that isn’t going Tory because of their leadership election?
55 , Gavin . Allow for churning and the movement in the polls is away from the Tories to the Lib Dems , with Labour consolidating and edging up . It’s difficult to get too worked up over these post election polls but on balance both Labour and the LibDems will be pleased and the Tories a little disappointed . In other words - tiny political tremor in the shires , nobody much concerned .
46. Yes you are right but i did qualify by saying only if they were in trouble. It would have to be quite big trouble but if they were the temptation to give it threee more months might be overwhelming. Any case. Lanour have done Ok in October/November,, vis November 1964, and October 1974.
57 , @ . I don’t think in October/November 2009 that Labour would be too thrilled with a wafer thin majority as 64 or October 74 , the Tories would be though .
50 - Jack, Labour (and the Tories beforehand) seemed OK about having County and General elections on the same day, and there is considerable evidence of ticket splitting (especially from a Lib Dem perspective - eg Broxtowe where there are 4 Lib Dem Co Councillors and a Labour MP, not sure of his name
).
54 - Gavin, whilst turnout is higher it means that Local Elections tend to be fought on national auto-pilot (ticket-splitting not withstanding). Without wishing to sound like Tubs and Edward, fighting a local campaign on local issues (for local people?) is like shouting in a tornado.
59 , Tabman . Agreed about local/GE vote splitting but Euro/GE is more tricky for the major parties with UKIP and the Greens polling well .
60 - wouldn’t it work the other way for the major parties though - people more likely to put their X for the “home team” because the prevailing mood will be national issues (and turnout will be higher too)?
Re: 53 & 55: it may of course be that the LD vote is harder than previously thought. After 1992, the LD vote rose significantly and the Party was polling very well until Blair became Labour leader (compare the polls from early 1994 with those from later in the year). The Tory “collapse” of 1992/93 didn’t lead to large Labour poll leads until 1994/95 onwards.
In the same way, the 1983-87 Parliament saw the Tory vote slump to the high 20s but the then Alliance parties were the main beneficiaries often polling around 30% until self-destructing in early 1987.
There is no law that says that the main Opposition party will benefit from a collapse in support for the Government. I wouldn’t be surpruised if a poll in the next 18-24 months put the LDs in the lead. Agreed it won’t last but not to be dismissed.
And today’s nominee for the “Stating the Bleedin’ Obvious” Award goes to … Jack Straw:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4737849.stm
61 , Tabman . I’m not sure . The broadcasters would be obliged to give UKIP/Greens more coverage and the leakage of votes from the big 3 would be difficult to determine.; which is why I judge the combining of the GE and Euro elections would not be welcome by the big 3.
64 - there are also financial considerations which apply in both directions; having to fund two campaigns at the same time versus the synergies gained from combining election literature and expenditure.
A propos holding a GE on the same day as Euro or Council Elections , this year many people took the opportunity to split their votes between different parties in the County Council and GE with the Lib Dems polling 5 - 6% higher in the County Elections . If they did not have that choice how would those 5-6% have voted in the GE . I have tried to compare similar seats which had no County Elections with similar seats to those that did , not that easy a task as most seats with no County elections are in the major cities .
However in 12 mainly South Coast seats in Brighton and Hove , Portsmouth , Southampton , Poole , Bournemouth and Swindon the average Lib Dem performance was + 4.3 % compared to the regional average of + 1.5 % in the other seats in the same region .
An indication , perhaps , that the Lib Dems would have done a little better in the GE if it had not coincided with County Council elections .
64 , Tabman . I’m shocked you mean “Winning Here” placards are used more than once !! You told us they were bio-degradable .
67 - by a little judicious alteration we alter them to say “Whining here” and sell them on to other parties.
67, 68 - do you fancy a job lot for your Jacobite outfit?
68 or “Living Here” - goes down well in some parts of the country.
My 8 year old nephew who helped me deliver in Cheadle had a letter from Mark Hunter, a book about parliament and an invite for tea!!! - We will have the 8 -12 vote sewn up soon.
70 - it’s too late at 8; “Give me child before 7 and he’s mine for life … ”
http://www.culturevulture.net/Movies4/villagedamned2.jpg
The discussion above of when an election might be held reminds me that there is a great deal of gerrymandering that goes on when one person alone can call an election.
There really should be no opportunity to manipulate the timing to coincide with other elections or not, depending on the advantage to be gained by a governing party (and all parties do it). It even reaches down to calling bye elections where the sitting party is left to move the writ.
And of course it is not just electoral timing that is fiddled, but legislation and dealing with particularly difficult issues is also manipulated to coincide with an election called before due time, usually turning sensible debate in to bear-trap tripping parlour games. The February Terrorism bill being but one example (with powers that were so urgently needed but have still not been used?)
So the more I think the more I am coming round to the idea of fixed parliaments. Other countries use them and it works well, levelling the political playing field and leaving everyone aware of the timetable. And when an early election is necessary as no government can find a majority it needs to be in the hands of someone besides the main political beneficiary, perhaps in the German fashion.
And while we are at it, why not have elections on Saturday and Sunday morning. It will do far more for turnout than all the techno babble schemes talked about. And we can all watch the results on the telly on the Sunday afternoon rather than those boring old films or rather unusual sporting events. And go to work on Monday bright eyed from not having stayed up late to see the 3am results.
71 - I agree on the fixed term parliaments.
Though the blurry Friday after an election is all part of the experience
68 , Tabman . “… Whining here …. You mean the Tories not whining Cheadle :
http://www.donrosenberger.150m.com/complaints/whining.jpg
69 , Tabman . Talking about Jacobite outfits , I’ve just approved a new uniform for my personal guard (gay platoon):
http://www.bagpipestore.net/club_images/largeitems/sr_swhdr_jacobite_pvc.jpg
Jack W: like your good self, I often find a picture is the best way to express a thought.
http://images2.deviantart.com/i/2003/51/9/0/Bunny_and_Pancake.jpg
62 In the Lead? A little ambitious no. Assuming the Tory Core Vote is holding as Mr Smithsn is reporting where are these extra Lib Dem Supporters coming from? No imminent sign of a collapse in Labour Support.
71. Technically we already do have it in German Hands, HMQ! Agree seriously on voting hours though. It is ridiculous we hold our Elections in the middle of the week when people have work and can’t watch the results in action. The Italians(Andrea?) and the French are more sensible to have weekend voting.
Agreed with Blue2Win @ 71. But lets make polling day Saturday, so we can all recover on Sunday before work on Monday morning!
The hands in the air horror of an unsuitable US ambassador being appointed by the President without Congress approval, reminds me that in this country (The UK) things like appointments and election dates are decided by the Gov - no scrutiny at all!
74 , book value . Yum yum …..game pie pancakes …. and such a plump looking bunny ….. all the better for Jack to get his chops round. In fact I rather think we had said bunny on our last BBQ :
http://www.highland.gov.uk/cx/images/prs/2005/march/jacobites.jpg
76 , Robert Smithson et al . Polling on Saturday until 10:00pm and Sunday until 7:00pm , Monday Bank Holiday !!
71 – elections on Saturday – I don’t agree. I think the reason Thursday was settled on by convention is that that’s the day when the largest number of people is at home. Certainly the day when I’m most frequently NOT at home is Saturday – having left home for a weekend away on Friday and not returned until Sunday.
I also don’t agree with the necessity of changing the mechanics of voting to increase turnout. If people are motivated to vote, they won’t be put off by a fifteen minute walk. And as for people who would vote if the polling booth was in a supermarket but won’t make a fifteen minute trip to vote – if that’s how little they care about the outcome then I don’t want their votes in the system. There ought to be some token cost of effort in order to vote – to weed out those who don’t really know and are only voting because they’re forced to.
I am prepared to consider the case of a voting system in which your vote has more chance of having any effect – but that’s a separate argument.
80 , Cookie . The convention that British GE’s are held on a Thursday is one that any Prime Minister could change . The October 1931 election was held on a Tuesday and the December 1918 election was held on a Saturday . So PM Gordon Brown could in theory ask the Queen for a disolution and election on any day the Sovereign grants.
80 Cookie Thursday was chosen as it used to be early closing day for shops if I recall rightly. As shops are now open seven days a week, unfortunately, the use of Thursday is anachronistic.
82 - I thought early closing varied between regions. What vestiges of it I remember in Birmingham were on Wednesdays, I think.
75-”Agree seriously on voting hours though. It is ridiculous we hold our Elections in the middle of the week when people have work and can’t watch the results in action. The Italians(Andrea?) and the French are more sensible to have weekend voting.”
Now we have 2 days elections: Sunday and Monday. The Monday was added by the current government to have better turnouts (the turnout stayed more or less at the same level with the 2 days elections). For the Euro Elections they tried a Saturday/Sunday election (I think it was more successful,but then they came back to a Sunday/Monday election for the regional elections early this year). The majority of voters continues to vote on Sunday (for the regional elections 55.2% voted on Sunday and 16.2% on Monday).
We don’t have the drama of the election night: we couldn’t see the faces of MPs losing their seats (no Portillo moments for us!).
82,83 - I thought early closing varied too, was generally Wednesday, but with local variation for market days etc.
In response to the general thought about when elections should be - weekend elections would seem to encourage lower voter turnout amongst the Chatterati who go to the country for the weekend etc. but potentially higher voter turnout amongst the working classes. This would seem to be advantagous for Labour, but maybe that’s too stereotypical. It might be interesting to see what voting’s like in places where they have weekend voting and what the differences are. Personally I like voting on a weekday - very easy to walk down the road on the way to/from work etc., but then I guess I’m the kinda person that would still vote if it required a 5mile hike
It’s swings and roundabouts. A lot of what used to be disproportionately Conservative voters who work long hours (eg in the City) don’t have the time/inclination to vote on a weekday when they would at weekends.
However I would strongly oppose weekend voting. Particulary Sundays, as many Churches are used as polling stations especially in rural areas.
Re early closing: Thursdays I thought was the more traditional choice for late night shopping. Certainly has been for most of my lifetime in Cambridge, Liverpool and London.
Early closing I mainly remember on Wednesdays.
Fair point Andy, obviously it’s getting your voters out in the marginals thats the call… Getting the turnout from 50% to 75% in Bootle doesn’t help Labour, and getting a disproportionate number of Conservatives to turn out in Islington is positively harmful to them. (Clearly this works in reverse too…)
On a basis of places used as a polling station, I’m sure lots of familys would be grateful for a Saturday vote due to the large number of primary schools that close and are used as polling stations.
“I’m sure lots of familys would be grateful for a Saturday vote due to the large number of primary schools that close and are used as polling stations. ”
and many students too!
How many schools actually close though? We use around 25 out of the 100 stations in the borough (sorry “polling places”) but I don’t know of any schools that actually close for the day as their school halls are used.
In the Netherlands we vote on Wednesday for all elections, except the Euro’s, when we vote on Thursday.
Most other countries seem to vote on Sunday. Here that would be impossible because of the resistance of a smallish part of the electorate (i guess about 5%) that’s heavily Protestant and refuses to vote on Sunday for religious reasons.
91 , Rene . What are your polling hours and turnout levels ?
I doubt Labour’s majority will increase because even if it is not a close election the Conservatives will have the advantage of having a sitting MP who, assuming he or she does a good job (and considering the amount of new staff they are taking on, they will have few excuses not to) could be quite hard to unseat.
Mark Simmonds in Boston and Skegness was a typical example in 2001.
Mark ended up with a majority of over 5,000 despite a UKIP candidate that should have swung the result, if it had gone with the national trend to, Labour.
Not every MP is like Mark of course but this is maybe a point to bear in mind and could lead to, avoiding Brown becoming very unpopular, a simillar result in 2005 when, according to today’s news, Blair will be standing down as an MP as well.
93. I doubt tha the tories will lose many seats they gained this time. Their new MPs should benefit from the “first incumbency” effect. Then if there’re some unpopular and/or useless MPs, they could lose.
93- ” according to today’s news, Blair will be standing down as an MP as well.”
The Guardian already started to speculate about who will be the new Sedgefield MP. They suggested Phil Wilson ( a former Blair aide and lobbyist), Patrick Diamon (Number 10 special advisor and he worked with Mandy in the past) and Neal Lawson ( the Brownite editor of Labour journal Renewal and chair of the left-ish New Labour thinktank Compass).
My mother suggested that they could parachutee Ed Balls if he’s still searching a new seat.
95 , Andrea . Ed Balls is already MP for Normanton !
96. I think his seat will be abolished and adsorbed by Ivette Cooper’s seat. Have I dreamt about it or is it true?
97 - I believe you are right that he will have to look for a new seat this time (or divorce Yvette and fight for the Pontefract selection).
98.”(or divorce Yvette and fight for the Pontefract selection). ”
or have a sex change if the party will impose all women shortlist everywhere! But I’m sure there’ll be some exceptions to the rule to make possible the selection of all Brown’s former aides.
97 , Andrea . Not sure about that , book value or Mark Senior will have the gen . However I don’t think that GB’s adviser on Earth will have too much trouble in finding a new seat - That’s Balls for you !
http://www.theclydebankstory.com/images/TCSA00086_m.jpg
98/100 , book value . Ho Ho !!
98. I’ve a question about abolished seats and Labour MPs. Are Labour MPs forced to try to get the selection in the new seat that will get most of their abolished seat?
103 - no, they can apply for any new seat which contains any part of the old one.
104. So Balls is not forced to get the selection in his wife’s seat? Are the other seats that will receive parts of Normanton safe Labour?
According to this thread:
http://pollingreport.co.uk/blog/index.php?p=416
the successor seat (Morley and Outwood) should be a decent Labour bet. And Ed and Yvette could still have next-door seats.
Very entertaining. there is an article in the latest edition of Public Finance (I know Andrea subscribes, but the rest of you may not know) that says the timing of Brown’s spending review makes an Autumn 2009/Spring 2010 election most likely. But if Labour are well ahead in early 2009…we´ll have an election!
107. Peter, is this article you’re referring to?
http://www.cipfa.org.uk/publicfinance/search_details.cfm?News_id=24666&keysearch=election
Andrea, your omniscience is astounding. It is the very one.
109. It only took me a couple of minutes to go to their website and use the “search” function (and I had nothing to do at that moment).
Book Value I could well be wrong on Thursday. But as the ‘home counties’ had Thursday early closing it has always seemed plausible.
Does it relate to WWI regulations like pub opening hours? When were elections held in the fifty years before WWI? Anyone know?
Re: 93: Turnout for the last set of elections was as follows:
National: 79,9
Local: 65,61
Provincial (comparable with the British Counties) 52,34
Referendum European Constitution: 63,3
The booths open at 7:30 and close at 21:00.
112 , Rene . Thank you , turnout much better than in UK , I suppose PR ensures every vote counts and drives up turnout .
111 - before 1918 they were generally staggered across a period of a few weeks with different constituencies polling on different days. This may have related to local early closing or other customs, but I’m no expert.
113.”I suppose PR ensures every vote counts and drives up turnout . ”
or simply lack of civic sense?
Euro elections has PR, but the turnout is still low.
115 , Andrea . True but the UK is the least enthusiastic nation in the EU . I think the civic duty aspect is more relevant as the older generation who valued the cost of democracy die out to be replaced by a more cynical electorate and more recent GE’s where the result was in little doubt .
Should the Tories and the Lib Dems get their act together and a tight election seem likely then overall turnout levels might reach the dizzy heights of 70% !!
116.”True but the UK is the least enthusiastic nation in the EU ”
but PR in the Euro Elections hasn’t helped to raise the turnout even if compared to when the euro elections had FPTP.
117 , Andrea . True again . I just feel that the turnout levels for EU elections reflect that in general terms the British electorate don’t really give a euro ! It’s always pretty low on the radar of the public and features way down on the list of concerns for the average voter in opinion surveys .
116 How do you know? Turnout might have been even lower with FPTP.
Dutch turnout for the 2004 European elections was only 39,3% and even that was signifcantly higher than in 1999. Turnout for European Elections has never been higher than 50% and that was in 1979, the first direct elections to the European parliament.
There are plans to change the electoral system and divide the country into a limited number of constituencies, that will all elect a number of MP’s. 50% of Mp’s will be thus elected, the other 50%through the national list. The government has introduced a law to this effect, but it is still uncertain if these proposals have any change of getting a majority, as they have been heavily criticised.
The Guardian back bencher competition has a stunning prize! But 50 words or less on TB post PMship might be fun
THIS WEEK’S COMPETITION
This week, the Backbencher has a copy of Roy Douglas’s Liberals: The
History of the Liberal and Liberal Democrat Parties to give away,
courtesy of Hambledon and London. “As books on the histories of
British political parties go, this is most definitely in the top
division,” says Charles Kennedy. For a chance of winning it, just
send us an outline of Tony’s post-prime-ministerial career in 50
words or fewer. The best will appear in the next edition of the
Backbencher. Email backbencher@guardianunlimited.co.uk. Terms and
conditions can be inspected here
(http://politics.guardian.co.uk/backbench/story/0,14158,1151064,00.html).
Re. 103, if a Labour MP has their constituency abolished, they’re entitled not just to apply for seats into which parts of their existing seat go, but if they don’t get selected for such seats, to then cast their net elsewhere. Hence Malcolm Savidge tried (without success) to get selected for Stoke-on-Trent South after losing out to Frank Doran in the redrawn Aberdeen North (Frank Doran having been selected for Aberdeen North after parts of his previous seat - Aberdeen Central - went into the new Aberdeen North).
Incidentally, Doran has now represented all the Aberdeens, having been MP for Aberdeen South from 87-92.
122. Thanks. Doran vs Savidge was a close fight.
Could there been some interesting fights after this boundary changes?
I have just finished Roy Douglas’s ‘Liberals: The History of the Liberal and Liberal Democrat Parties’. It was a very interesting read as a Lib Dem, lots of typos.
for what it’s worth, my predictions on the next election are:
40% chance - labour majority
40% chance - hung parliament
20% chance - Tory majority
Any other result (e.g. Lib Dem majority) 200-1 or so.
the labour 40% includes about 5% chance of another landslide. Tory landslide maybe 1%.
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