Has being leader made Charles happy?
August 9th, 2005
1999
2005
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Could Blackpool be a turning point?
Before the Betfair betting exchange felt it had had to get respectable it ran lively markets on whether politicians and others apparently in trouble would hold onto their jobs. The whole David Kelly affair and the Hutton inquiry had very lively betting and Charles Kennedy’s failure to make his party’s response after the 2004 budget statement saw the money piling on both for and against the Lib Dem leader.
Sadly we cannot bet on this sort of thing anymore and Kennedy will go to his party’s conference in Blackpool next month without punters trying to determine his future by putting his every move under close scrutiny.
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For the reception he gets and talk in the bars at the Lancashire seaside resort in five weeks time could hold the key as to whether he goes on.
The judgement of many in the party is that while the Lib Dems have done well under his leadership it has perhaps nor done well enough. During the two years while the hapless IDS was leading the Tories and Labour was split over Iraq then surely the Lib Dems should have made greater progress.
Last year the message coming from Kennedy was that they intended to replace the Tories as the main party of opposition. Well in terms of seats won they are much further away from this goal than they were a year ago. The Tories might not be going anywhere but they are not going back either and Kennedy has not shown how he can eat into both the Labour and Tory vote shares at the same time.
But increasing the parliamentary party to 62 MPs and then holding off the enormous challenge in the Cheadle by-election last month have been real positives for the leader.
It is hard to envisage circumstances in which Kennedy could be ousted - so the real question is whether he wants to go on? Does the leadership make him happy? It does not appear to.
Mike Smithson
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I’m sorry, I just don’t buy the “judgement of many in the party..” line. It’s certainly not what I’m hearing from the grassroots; I only ever hear it from one or two journalists. Thankfully our party is seldom influenced by journalists.
Two quick points in response:
1: CK is very efective at being the “anti-politician”, someone trusted as a real human being as opposed to your archetypal politician. So, for example, Paddy was right for the party when we were struggling to survive and needed to show we were still there, but would have been far less effective at this point, when cynicism regarding politicians is so great.
2: Even if you thought CK should go (and I certainly don’t), who would replace him. Simon is a great guy and great for the party but I don’t think anyone seriously thinks now that he’d be a better leader. Ming has gravitas but not broader appeal outside teh ‘political’ classes (and is frankly getting on a bit). Ed Davey an option, but not yet really made his mark. There’s plenty of talent in the new intake (likes of Clegg, Huhne and Kramer) but surely their time should come post 2009?
Hence I really think this idle CK talk is a red herring.
re 1 - If this is not being discussed then can you explain why CK had to warn his MPs six weeks ago about the “briefing against him”? See http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article295986.ece
CK might be the “anti-politician” as you describe him but his real failing in my view is his inability to articulate a compelling vision for the party. As a long-standing LD member put it to me at the weekend CK is a windbag.
I agree with your para 2 about no obvious replacement having emerged and I do not think there will be any change in the near future.
I heard a very bright Lib Dem on ‘Any Questions’ with Johnathon Dimbleby a few weeks ago. Unfortunately it’s a shaggy dog story because I can’t remember his name. I think he used to have a job in the human rights field or something of that sort. But he was very knowledgeable and very impressive. He shone on out on a good panel. If I remember his name or his fellow pannelists I’ll come back
3. - Roger, an old poliotical tactic, “forgetting” the name of your rival
I suspect it was Nick Clegg (transcript for the edition, 1st July, here) that you were referring to. Other recent contirbutors were David Laws and Matthew Taylor.
Clegg is speaking at a constituency dinner in October, I shall report back on my impressions of the Future Leader
3,4 - and looking back at the other panelists (Robin Cook RIP and David Willets) it probably was him.
I joined the LIb Dems some three years ago and have done some delivery and some telephone canvassing. i do not thing that CK is anti politician but not aggressive in his attacks .I am disengaging from Lib Dems on the basis there is no grassroots politcal discussion
Raymond - grassroots discussion is there; can I point you for a flavour of it, or email me at tabman@thatsaid.co.uk for more information.
Re your point about kennedy - one of the best perfomrances I saw him give was the live QT debate just prior to the electorate. The reason? He was passionate and animated, and seemed to get a buzz from the live audience (who warmed to him). Its a shame that passion does not always (or often) show in his other TV performances.
7 - can I point you here
You really can’t beat the Liberal Democrats for being prepared for the by election in Livingston . According to Marina Hyde in her Diary for “The Gruntfutuck” :
“Special congratulations to the Liberal Democrats … who waited several hours after news of Robin Cook’s death before updating their website to remind readers of their prospective parliamentary candidate for his Livingston seat . Charles Dundas lists his interests as genealogy , local history , debating , cinema , lierature and computers . He is 28 ”
Not ambulance chasing then !!
BTW after our musings last night on Prince Ernst of Hanover I note in the “Times” today that the Prince is holding a royal car boot sale at Schloss Marienburg to raise £20 million . So if you tastes run to dynastic toasters and Showaddywaddy LP’s it’s of to Wurzburg for you in October .
Tabman. Yes it was he! I now remember his fellow pannelists were indeed Robin Cook and David Willets. Not only are (were) both very impressive politicians but on that particular Saturday they were also on very good form. However for my money Nick Clegg outplayed them both. And I wondered at the time why I hadn’t seen him before.
9 - no doubt he will have a copy of “Frampton Comes Alive” going for a song.
I really don’t think that a couple of over-ambitiious briefers can be fairly described as “the judgement of many”.
I don’t buy the lack of “compelling vision” point either. “Vision” is one of those things which it is easier to say is missing than to define yourself!
From my perspective at least, the “vision” of the party is far more clear now than it was (say) in the Ashdown era. I think if you look at documents like “It’s About Freedom” and indeed some of the more thoughful pieces within the Orange Book, you can see that the party has clearly moved back onto recognisably “Liberal” territory. That in turn has been communicated to some degree to the wider public, notably in policy statements on issues such as civil liberties, the war, taxation etc. I think there is a growing appreciation that we aren’t just a “centre party” stuck between the other two, or even anywhere on that old, defunct left-right axis, and I think this is in large part down to CK’s more effective style of leadership.
CK’s more “relaxed” approach has enabled much of the thought leadership within the party to take place over the last few years without it being immediately spun as “splits” or “divisions” (the poorly timed Orange Book being an exception). This in turn has enabled us to communicate a more identifiably Liberal approach to the electorate.
However, Liberalism is complex and not easy to communicate in words of one syllable. I guess it would be nice if we had a leader who found the miraculous way to communicate this “vision” in an understandable way to every voter out there, past the barrier of a trivial or hostile media. But I just don’t think that’s realistic.
Kennedy is a demonstrable asset on the doorstep and in the Focus leaflet. In the media, however, often the only message that one is able to get across in the 15 seconds available is the nature, style and approach of the leader himself. If our party is judged by the public impression of CK, then I have to say I’m more than happy with that!
9 - heaven forbid that a journalist might make something out of nothing to suit their own political ends! A cursory glance at the Lib Dem site will show that there is nothing on the front page in relation to Livingston. If you make the effort to search out the relevant page, amongst all the other 600-odd from the 2005 GE, you will find that actually it consists of tributes to Robin Cook, and otherwise contains exactly the information it had before Cook’s death.
9 - heaven forbid that a journalist might make something out of nothing to suit their own political ends! A cursory glance at the Lib Dem site will show that there is nothing on the front page in relation to Livingston. If you make the effort to search out the relevant page, amongst all the other 600-odd from the 2005 GE, you will find that actually it consists of tributes to Robin Cook, and otherwise contains exactly the information it had before Cook’s death.
12 - Oxonian, could you drop me a line please? tabman@thatsaid.co.uk
9, 14 - of course Marina “something to” Hyde is exceptionally vigilant in her crusade against media hypocrisy, except when it emanates from Piers Morgan.
In my view CK has done a great job in slowly consolidating the LD position - to be honest his entering fatherhood during the election didn’t help as he understandably seemed wiped out for much of the campaign. In my view he needs to develop more gravitas and basically project himself better. As for other prospective future leaders I quite like David Laws - I think it’s important the next leader is English.
13/14 Tabman . As you chastised me the other day , I only reported what others said !!
Aslo what’s all this “Muscular Liberalism” stuff . Sounds a bit 19th century public school to me - muscular christianity - all Edward Thring and Uppingham School . Perhaps it’s a training school for Lib Dem candidates . Before and after :
http://www.musclenow.com/custpi26.jpg
Heck , I’ve also discovered an updated picture of Charles Dundas , the Lib Dem PPC for Livingstone …….. this guy means business !! :
http://www.shawnray.net/home2000/images/Story/muscular.JPG
16 book value . Meeooww !!! A saucer of milk for the Lib Dems this morning please.
Jack, no picture to accompany your 19? I am disappointed! Are you missing Andrea as your foil?
18 - I’m not sure what they’re selling, but if this before and after is anything to go by, take with some caution!
As to you second picture, I think you’ve got the wrong Charles
17 Andy C . Liberal Democrats - “…. I think it’s important the next leader is English”
Why ?????????
22 - Jack, without wishing to put words into Andy’s mouth, I suspect the point that he’s making is that the party needs to reposition itself during the next four years from a party of loose ideas and a recepticle of protest votes, to one more in the mainstream, or at least able to garner votes in other areas. Having a Scot for a leader, at least subconsciously, reinforces the image of “Celtic Fringe”. An MP for an urban or sub-urban constituency as leader would send the a different message to the electorate. I’m not sure what the relative proportions of the two are (urban/suburban vs rural), but I suspect its weighted in favour of the former.
20 book value . OK here’s a picture of a pussy . Dare you open the link !!!
http://www.bartcop.com/kitten-god-kill.jpg
20 book value . OK here’s a picture of Mrs. Slocombe’s pu..y !!! Dare you open the link !!!
http://www.bartcop.com/kitten-god-kill.jpg
23 - There are one or two urban and suburban seats in Scotland too, Tabman. Or so I am told. They don’t come up much on Monarch of the Glen though, so I have my doubts.
If Kennedy were to go before the next election - and I think Mike’s point is right that the decision remains his to make - I would like to see him wait until after Blair and Howard (and possibly Howard’s successor based on past form) finally bow out. That way the leader would be the “freshest” of the three and also a decision could be made based on the new political landscape. It is very early now and for the next year or so to see what the landscape will be like in 2009 or so.
This from the link supplied by Tabman;
Nick Clegg, an MP for just 57 days, is already being spoken of as leadership material by some Liberal Democrats. He’s already a foreign affairs spokesman and his qualifications for that include a spell working at the European Commission, running an EU aid programme in Kazakhstan, five years as an MEP and he has rather an exotic family background with only one British grandparent and a Spanish wife. Oh yes he speaks five languages too.
I think Charlie might have his work cut out. Or does “Chubby bloke who was the youngest MP when elected and likes his tipple” cut the mustard these days?
26 - Roger, I seem to recall some comment earlier this year that the Lib Dems had no talent
However, mr Clegg is not alone; David Laws’ and Vince Cable’s backgrounds are equally impressive, and I know of another PPC who went to Oxford, Cambridge and Imperial, and jacked in an academic career to work in the City.
Thoese Lib Dems who say that there is no discussion about CK inside the party are wrong. Maybe in your patch, but it my area in the South West some party workers and ex-PPCs think that, although they don’t dislike Kennedy, perhaps he should move on after buidling up the party- giving the example of what Paddy did. I don’t buy it, but I see people’s reasons.
There is a surprising amount of unease at the election camapaign- how some seats received huge amounts of help, while others that were seemingly at the same target level were put at the back of the queue. For example, those seats where the LD incumbent had a very small majority were put after target seats, meaning that they often had fewer resources on hand. I think the unease is not on Kennedy- but the way the party is run. Also decapitation seats put above others, such as North Dorset.
All in all I must add that grass roots spirits are high and positive- perhaps the sudden drop in activity after the election has led to a lot of time to gossip!
PS: I notice from her website that Sue Doughty seems to be gearing up to challenge to take back her seat- her website says ’still working hard for you’ and notes that she will continue to do surgeries. The news items are updated too- lets hope her awful campaign is not repeated.
PPS: Nick Clegg is a v. good speaker.
23 Tabman . Frankly Tabbers that’s one of the weakest analytical posts you’ve come up with ….. stay of those steroids .
Most voters don’t care that CK or GB or even TB(sort of) are Scots . They care about the everyday issues and what political leaders are going to do about them. The fact that a party leader comes from Altnaharra or Aldershot as Mr & Mrs Jo Public marks their ballot must come so far down the list of concerns to be almost Veritas like in its’ significance .
I’m sure it hasn’t escaped your notice that the odd Celt has been rather popular with the Liberals and the public over the years -
Lloyd George , Jo Grimmond , David Steel and CK , not forgeting the Ulster roots of old the Plenipotentiaty , Viceroy and Envoy Rambo Extraordinaire to Yugoslavia and Yeovil South - Lord Pantsdown .
30 - Jack, to coin a phrase [a]s you chastised me the other day , I only reported what others said !! Read the first line of my post again: I suspect the point that he’s making … . I was trying to flesh out the idea that there has been some media-fuelled talk of the “Scottish-Raj” or “Jockocracy” of NuLab. Part of positioning the Lib Dems as distinct, especially if Gordo and Liam Fox or Rifkind get their respective party leaderships, would be having an English leader. After all, 80% of the electorate are English - and whilst Scots have proved popular in the past my I refer you to the parable of the Inductivist Turkey!
27. If I said the Lib dems lacked talent it must have been a slip. Obviously I meant to write ‘Tories’! I agree with Jack that all this talk of Scottish leaders being a turn off is very parochial and the sort of talk I would only expect from the Blues. As everyone in advertising will confirm the Scottish accent has been researched and is the most trusted of all. Now if you’d said ginger hair……
My views are unchanged on this subject . CK stays for the present time , should he decide to want to spend more time with his wife and multiple children in a couple of years , then there is a wealth of talent that can be chosen from to elect a new leader . Depending on how much of a gamble they want to take to achieve a real break through , perhaps go for a younger woman as leader to offer a strong alternative to GB and DD/ANO ,
31 - “Now if you’d said ginger hair……”
But this prejudice is rooted (no pun intended) in Saxon racism against the defeated Celts… same thing. Careful, Roger
31 - Roger, apologies, I did not mean you - IIRC it was some of the blues having ago about our meagre talent pool (it could have been Over There … I forget).
Personally I have no problem with having a Scot as a leader; my point as above is that (i) if the other two have Scots it could be a distinctive move and (ii) some of the “especially right-wing” press is wont to complain about creeping Social-ism form North of the Border being enacted by our colonial rulers
To offer a Labour perspective: CK seems to me quite effective at getting the ‘nice’ left-of-centre vote. I like him myself, and would feel comfortable supporting some future Lab-Lib coalition with him involved. There are others (Simon Hughes, Evan Harris) who are much more abrasive in their style: they would get fewer ‘nice’ votes and make coalition harder, but would attract more of the ‘harsh’ anti-Labour vote, including some on the right (’we’re angry and we want a real alternative’).
29 - I wouldn’t imagine many go into the voting booth and think “I would vote for them but the leader’s a Scotsman…” but there is a wider drip-feed over the course of a Parliament and people come away with an impression of whether a party’s leadership is made up of people like them who live in communities like their’s. However, the point would only come up in a close contest - it would be folly not to choose the candidate with the best vision and presentational style just because he or she represented an “unfashionable” constituency.
31 - I think it may be specific to Edinburgh accents and is trusted in a “please sell me financial services” way. I believe other accents score higher in straightforward honesty - possibly Westcountry accents but they don’t sell financial services so much because people think the accent implies “honest but a bit simple”.
30 Tabman . ” read the first line of my post again ”
My dear Tabbers an utterly woeful lawyerly reply . The sort of jibberish I hear from Daily Mail journalists . ” It’s not what I really think , I’m just reporting the thinking of others , and the salary is wonderful .”
Parties should trust their instincts and the history books on these matters and ignore the trite rubbish that from time to time comes from the Mail and the Telegraph , after all recently their political calls have been so far of the mark as to be considered Chirac like in their accuracy .
22, 23 - Yes, Tabman broadly reflects my thinking. The challenge for LibDemmery at the next election will be to pick up seats in England , especially the SE and Midlands; and to do so I think we need a leader who can appeal to both rural and urban voters - and if at all possible get our message to the exurbs - i.e. new estate Britain, which is the LD’s weakest area. I just think an English voice would potentially be better at this.
28 - My personal feeling was that not enough external resources were aimed at consolidating some of the recent pickups & marginal seats; certainly in my constituency, which was one of those lost, I did not feel that our(excellent) MP had the support, that it was clear to all of us on the ground, he needed. Instead I was aware that some of the external support that we had benefited from in 2001 was this time aimed at a neighbouring constituency, which was always going to be a difficult proposition. Result - net loss one seat.
36. Obviously not a Glaswegian one where their well known “kiss” would leave you with a bleeding nose……..
37 - Jack, may I refer you to Andy’s post at 38? Spin my reply all you like, but the fact remains that I was couching an argument on Andy’s behalf, which he has confimred as the point he was making. You are hardly an unbiased observer and might be expected to react huffilly to any suiggestion that things Caledonian might not be to the taste of “new estate [wo]man”, and as Andy handilly calls them.
37, and in addition, none of the leaders you mentioned actually won an election for the Liberals or Liberal Deomcrats, did they? So they didn’t exactly have “mass appeal”. There’s no reason why a Scot should not have “mass appeal” but equally in an environment of increased devolution and suspision in some quarters that there are “too many Scots in positions of power”, that might add to a subconscious zetigeist.
33 book value . “Saxon racism against the defeated Celts …”
What defeated Celts would they be ?? The Welsh Tudors or the Scottish Stuarts who both took over the poison chalice of the English throne !!
35 Nick Palmer . Daily Mail Headline “Labour MP says next Election lost”
Sometime ministerial bag carrier and Labour MP Nick Palmer earlier today admitted that Labour would lose the next election and would enter a coalition with the Liberal Democrats . He envisaged that Charles Kennedy would be Deputy Prime Minister . John Prescott said “this report was bolloc*s.” Mr Palmer was later seen on a Thames barge in a large glass jar next to Peter Mandelson .
Tim [28] - Sue Doughty isn’t trying to get her seat back - constituencies don’t belong to MPs
4 - its worth reading the exchange on PR.
Just to cheer us all up, I note that the Lib Dem PPC for Bexleyheath and Crayford, and Bexley’s only Lib Dem Cllr has defected to the Tories citing disillusionment with Lib Dem policies.
http://www.newsshopper.co.uk/news/newsbexley/display.var.620669.0.lib_dems_move_wobbles_labour.php
That hugely popular ENGLISH former party leader Ian Duncan-Smith writing today in the “Gruntfutuck” says that if the Tories expect to return to government on the back of an economic turndown they will be sorely mistaken . IDS says voters are :
“…. hungry for a broader , one nation conservatism . Conservatives need to relentlessly expose (Gordon) Brown fo his economic mismanagement on competitiveness , tax credits , pensions and indebtedness. But that is not going to be enough . We have to offer a positive vision to ensure that disallusioned voters vote Conservative - and not Liberal Democrat. A conservatism that is “good for me” and “good for my neighbour” is the only kind that can deliver a Conservative majority. A commitment to social justice is a good place to start .”
Sounds a bit Lib Demish to me . Mmmnnn . Tabman is there a defection in the offing !! You could have an Englsh leader yet !!
45 Rik . He defected because of Lib Dem policy on …….. wait for it …… Cyprus !!!! They talk of little else in Bexleyheath.
So what is the Conservative policy on Cyprus …. “Are your kebabs thinking what my kebabs are thinking , Costas !! “
Looking at the photo of the Bexleyheath councillor I’m not convinced that it isn’t IDS in disguise anyway - perhaps going undercover to spread seeds of doubt among the Lib Dem faithful?
Incidentally, talking about lookalikes, does anyone else see a resemblance in the 1999 photo of CK to the prince of darkness himself, Alastair Campbell?
45 - He was a disastrous PPC and a bitter young man. He will not be missed!
re 48. At least the defector is an own-up baldie unlike a number of other politicians that come to mind
46 - Jack I think quite a few people in the party would agree with him including some of the leadership challengers (Rifkind, Willets & Cameron). Of all the ex-leaders IDS has probably been the most thoughtful and constructive.
On a more worrying note I found out at the weekend that the Lib Dem MSP for Edinburgh South lives in the same street as me! And I’d always thought it was a nice Tory neighborhood.
“On a more worrying note I found out at the weekend that the Lib Dem MSP for Edinburgh South lives in the same street as me! And I’d always thought it was a nice Tory neighborhood. ”
That is nearly as bad as writing in American English…
48 Stephen . Yes , some dastardly plot by the Tories to clone IDS and infiltrate the Greek Cypriot ranks of the Lib Dems , his article in the “Grunyfutuck” is clearly some wheeze to sow discontent in CK’s ranks as they search for an English kebab shop owner to become the next leader …… so that’s what Simon Hughes was on about the other day ! ……. And I’ve the new leader !! :
http://www.brainkebab.com/images/kebab_logo_animation.gif
41, Tabman, however Henry Campbell-Bannerman, a scotchman, was the last liberal leader to lead his party to a landslide victory in 1906. His successor H. H. Asquith was only able to retain a much reduced majority in January 1910 GE and as a divided party, and lost the overall majority in December 1910 becoming dependent on the Irish Nationalists.
But I agree with James in 36, that the vision of the leader is more important than the location of his/her constituency. Maybe Lib Dems should take heed of this an return to the old, more classical liberal policy of Campbell-Bannerman to be able to return into power.;-)
Jack - I think there are more contenders for the Tory Party leadership than there are English kebab shop owners.
Incidentally, last time I was on the Glenmorangie Tour, I noticed a barrel of the stuff had been set aside for CK - not sure when it is due for bottling but it could be factor in deciding when to step down.
Sorry Sophia! Spellings not really my strong point. And my heads still spinning from celebrating the beating we gave the Wee Team on Sunday, so I’m not the sharpest today!
50- naa, only the hair. http://images.scotsman.com/2003/08/31/3108alb.jpg
re 59…and AC looks a lot more menacing. No one would ever accuse him of having a “relaxed” approach
Does Viscount Thurso count as a Scottish Lib Dem? I would quite like him to lead the Lib Dems and herald a return to the age of the well-dressed and dapper chap.
61 - he looks like he has just acquired two sets of life savings in that picture. But more seriously I hear good things of him.
56 Hmmmm . ” … Campbell-Bannerman a scotchman ….”
Pleassssseee , Scot or Scotsman . The only scotchman I know is CK , and he’s a man full of scotch !
53 Max . There will be no escape now , imagine election times . Walking past all those “Winning Here” posters , especially in this case as they’re right !! No you’ll just have to move !!
57 Stephen . LOL .
Top of the league!
61 Stephen . Viscount Thurso - excellent fellow . Every inch a Scottish Aristo and …. oh yes he happens to be a Lib Dem , but I wouldn’t hold that against him …. too much.
61 - At least we now know where Lord Lucan is.
63, I thought all of you Scots were full of scotch…
65 - he’s only the third Viscount, Jack - is the title venerable enough for you?
53 - Max, 63 looks susipciously like an offer to do a Gretna in reverse and take off to Hertfordshire and bliss with Jack. No nasty Lib dems either, AHM has had them all put down.
56 - Hmmm, good old C-B, and I agree about the classical Liberal policies. Perhaps we could discuss it further - drop me a line on tabman@thatsaid.co.uk
61 - Stephen, I agree on the dress sense. I hope he gets his shoes from Cleverley.
56 - or take a look here.
67 Hmmm . We leave the English to drink the scotch …. all blended stuff …yuk . Whilst we drink the malts !!
68 book value . As a Caithness Sinclair the good Viscount has unimpeachable Jacobite credentials , so he’s fine by me !!
I think he is the grandson or Archibald Sinclair who lead the Liberals in WW2 (? - unsure about the date) and Caithness is Clan Sinclair territory so he has a fair wind behind him anyway in the area. I would agree, though, that I have only heard positive things about him and I think the only hereditary peer to have chosen to get his hands dirty in the Commons following the Lords Reforms?
72 - yes, he is Sinclair’s grandson. He is the only former hereditary to have sat in both Lords and Commons, though since the reform of the Lords, Douglas Hogg has become Viscount Hailsham, a title which he can now of course retain while remaining an MP.
69 Tabman . I regret to say that the Lib Dem virus is likely to take hold in 2009 in Watford and perhaps more long term in St.Albans. So a move to one of my castles in the Jacobite stronghold of Kinkell-shire is likely .
http://www.geraldlaing.com/NewKinkell.gif
73 - here’s a picture of the man himself, and the chance to tee up some “trainspotter” jokes for those not of gold persuasion.
74 - not a patch on this one; which might be preferred by some of the more garagiste blues.
73 book value . You are incorrect about John Thurso being the only former hereditary peer to sit in both Houses.
Firstly Viscount Thurso is still a hereditary peer. More importantly Quintin Hogg was in the Commons from 1938 until 1950 when he went to the Lords as the 2nd Viscount Hailsham on the death of his father . He then went back to the Commons after disclaiming his peerage in 1963 and then back to the Lords under Ted Heath as Lord Chancellor in 1970 . Quite a game of parliamentary ping pong !
Jack - alternatively you could have former SDP leader and Caithness MPBob Maclennan and Friend welcome you to the entrance of your Jacobite underground party HQ and hideaway.
Being dapper seems to be a constituency requirement in those parts.
70 Tabman - despite my being a Tory, that’s an intersting link.
76 - Jack, I had meant “former hereditary member of the Lords without disclaiming”. But of course I did not say that so your correction to me is quite in order.
77 Stephen . After you recent posts I was going to claim you as a kindred spirit . Indeed I had you lined up as my Chief Whip and then you spoiled it all by mentioning that four letter word…….. Aaarrrggghhh !!!
CK’s just fine. He hasn’t done a Jeremy Thorpe and raced ahead in the polls without actually gaining seats- there are now safe Lib Dem seats and solid foundations; we have a party more talented than ever (which easily rival the brain power of the other two parties) with the likes of Laws, Cable, Campbell, Clegg, Huhne, Kramer, Moore, Webb showing that the Lib Dems could put together quite a useful Cabinet if the time came.
CK’s lasting legacy must be to lay some intellectual foundations as much as electoral ones- a distinctively liberal approach rather than becoming the vegetarian wing of the Labour party. Judging by his promotions, and some of the activity in the party, we are more ready than ever to engage in the intellectual discussion that is necessary to take us to the next stage. Let him get on with it. It does not matter how much Simon Hughes wants the job, he is not going to get it by briefing the Guardian.
Re: 45 & 51: James said “He was a disastrous PPC and a bitter young man.”. In which case, he’ll fit right into today’s Conservative Party which seems full of bitter young men and disastrous PPCs !!
Seriously, CK is and has been an excellent leader of the party and he served a terms as President before becoming Leader. He has far more “recognition” than any other LD (and probably most Tories) so the Party needs to think long and hard before a change..
If CK, like Paddy, decides to step down (unlike in the Conservative Party, where they stab you in the back, whether you’ve won three elections or none at all !), I would hope Andrew George would be the next leader.I think he would be an excellent chance as a reasonable, sensible person especially if the Tories choose Davis, who will no doubt spend the campaign whingeing and ranting about everything and everyone under the sun (or should that be under orders from The Sun !)
79 - I’ve been on a few Jacobite Cruises - would this help with a whipping role (I suspect this might be an old joke…)?
77 - Stephen, the present Tory party half-heartedly co-opted liberal ideas in the mid-C20th when the Liberal party imploded; some of us are seeking to steer our party back towards them. We have the advantage of actually believing in social liberalism too
.
Party points aside, I’m glad you found it interesting and look forward to your critiques - at the end of the day politics is about ideas, and ideas are not constrained by party boundaries. And one of these days that may be true in the Commons too
The anti-CK comments remind me of the sort of attitude you get from some football supporters. Yes we got promoted last year and yes we reached the cup semi for the first time ever but now we need to win the league/qualify for Europe etc and the successful manager who has done very well, in fact better than any previous manager of the club in living memory, is replaced by a high profile ‘name’. It usually ends in tears.
82 Stephen . I can’t see the “King over the Water” reclaiming his throne on that glorified pond boat !!
BTW I had this in mind as Chief Whip . It’d keep my Clansmen in line :
http://www.ntscmp.com/Chief_Whip.jpg
The BBC is reporting that the post mortem shows that Robin Cook died from “hypertensive heart disease” .
85 - Any chance of an alliance if, like Tabman’s Liberals, the Tory party looks to history for inspiration and becomes the Tòraidheach Party of yore? I think this might put us on the same side!
85 - whip antenna presumably?
87 Stephen . We live in hope , but not I fear in expectation .
88 Tabman . Excellent , if a little small !
Is it just me, or does the ‘99 vintage CK have something of a young Steve Davis about him…?
(No ’sinking the reds’ jokes, please.)
90 - the only snooker joke I know is not suitable for family viewing!
91 - or ‘potting the pink’ either, I should have said. This is a family forum.
92 - the tight brown or the easy pink was the one I was referring too …
93 Tabman . The “Family Values” wing of the West Bridgford Liberal Democrats make their feelings known as Tabman begins a Comedy Tour called “Rude Balls and the Single Transvetite Vote”.
http://www.scotlibdems.org.uk/campaign/iraqphotos/03war10.jpg
94 - Oi, W, no!!!. Whilst I respect your faux Jacobite pretensions and dodgy line in pictures, I will not tolerate your feeble humour!!!
95 Tabman . After taking no notice from his colleagues the Lib Dem “member” for West Bridgford is led away after his General Election campaign gets of to a rude awakening !
http://www.newsfeed.tcm.ie/images/people/libdemstreaker.jpg
96 - worried about the rising tide of violence against English-based Scots, Jack W invests in some protection (pay particular attention to the caption below the phot on the right).
63 - To be honest Jack my street was quite quiet at the last election. Barely a poster in sight. In the last couple of weeks I have a Focus and an In Touch both thanking me for my vote and nothing from Labour who actually won. Looks like both the other parties will stick with the candidate they had in 2005.
And I think you’re being a b it unfare on blended whisky. Its an art form, blending all those delicious flavours while at the same time being able to sell half a bottle for £4.50! But then perhaps you’ve never sampled the delights of SPAR ‘Liquid Gold’. Or indeed a nice bottle of High Commisioner.
97 Tabman . This jock has no need of that jock !
http://www.msgr.ca/msgr-9/kilt%20clear.gif
99 - How appropriate - Ar5e!
Despite the fractious nature of some of its activist base the LibDems are essentially a leadership loyal party. This talk of Kennedy being in trouble really is deeply unconvincing, though there are ofcourse those who continue to snipe. There is some restlessness in the party, Matthew taylor’s defeat in the election as Parliamentary Chair was a sign of that but it is very far away from being the kind of rebellion that the press would like to write about.
The LibDems are a fairly non-ideological party - that is a source of regret to me as an Orange Book liberal but I cannot blame Kennedy for that. That is a function of the party’s history a& I think that it is slowly changing & creeping into more traditionally liberal territory. The new intake of MPs (or certainly the obvious stars) largely come from that school of thought.
Kennedy has not artculated a compelling vision, because frankly that has not been the raison d’etre of most LibDems. In much of the country the party operates like a residents association with a social conscience, rather than a political party with an ideology.
The fact remains Charles Kennedy is the most successful Liberal Leader since Lloyd George. He has consolidated and advanced on the 1997 gains, not just once in 2001 but agains this year. A little remarked on but exteremely significant point is that the 2005 election was the first ever, in which the Liberal vote went up despite declining support for a Labour government. On every previous occassion, 1979, 1970, 1950-51, 1931 and 1924 a fall in Labour’s support also saw a decline in the Liberal vote as wel. That is a very significant achievement that should not be dismissed.
Will Kennedy stay or will he go - thats a decision for him. I’ve posted here previously I could see him deciding that he’d rather spend the next 4 years bringing up his son & spending time with his wife but that’s up to him and given all he’s done he deserves the party’s support whatever his decision.
Is everything perfect? Did we do as well as we would have liked or indeed expectd - well obviously not. I thought we would gain more seats from the Tories but I thought they would also make gains from us. I don’t however accept that the Libdems could have made a dramatic breakthrough this May.
Although the decapitation strategy & the boasting of massive gains backfired they were not the fundamenal problem. From almost the moment that Michael Howard became Conservative leader, the Tories consolidated their core vote & lockd themselves into their infamous 30-33% box. No LibDem campaign was going to shift that.
But doesn’t that ean we should have turned our fire on Labour more? Well i wouldn’t disagree that we should put more resources into the couple of dozen seats where we had a realistic chance of toppling Labour & I think the party leadership were wrong to ignore them & were as surprised by the number of gains from Labour as they were by the lack of gains from the Tories. (I do though lay claim to my £5 as I predicted on this site in February that we would gain more seats from Labour than the Tories.)
However, lets look of those gains - of the 16 gains 12 came from Labour - 10 of those seats (leaving aside Inverness & Rochdale, who both had a recent history of Liberal MPs) were seats which had infact been represented by Tories in the 1980’s & 1990’s. In other words, the sort of people who came over to us were the public sector leaning middle class who voted for Major in 92, and Blair in 97 & 2001. It was precisely the campaign based on the ‘Guardian agenda” of no to tuition fees & yes to free personal care for the elderly that wo over ths floating middle class.
There is a real debate to be had about whether the party cn continue to make piecemeal advances at each election or whether there is a real opportunty to make a big bang sweep and go over 100 seats. That is a debate I think the party will have during this Parliament, but it is not one tha is about Charles Kennedy’s leadership but about how LibDems see themsleves.
98 Max . I’d be very worried by the lack of activity !! Something very dodgy going on I fear !
The delights of “Spar Liquid Gold” has eluded me . I fear I’ve been put off by the tantalizing allusion to Supermarket urinals. Presently I’m making my way through a few bottles of 21 year old “Auchentoshan” - A splendid wee nippy sweetie !!
102 - Drink!
101 - “…leaving aside Inverness & Rochdale…the sort of people who came over to us were the public sector leaning middle class who voted for Major in 92, and Blair in 97 & 2001. It was precisely the campaign based on the ‘Guardian agenda” of no to tuition fees & yes to free personal care for the elderly that wo over ths floating middle class.
I know it’s not the main point you’re making but my impression in Inverness is that it was very much this type of voter that really helped to create a larger win for the Lib Dems than they were expecting - the city has grown and the public sector has grown with it. To paraphrase what I think you’re saying, the Lib Dems offered a centre-left collectivist approach that appealed to middle-class voters who would never call themselves middle-class!
“In much of the country the party operates like a residents association with a social conscience, rather than a political party with an ideology.”
A brilliant analogy from Bullseye which encapsulates the LibDem problem; a lack of long-term vision. Whilst, CK has got the politics right when it has mattered from taking on Hague’s asylum policies during the Romsey by-election to taking a stance over the Iraq war and refusing to take part in the Butler inquiry, CK’s problems are simply symptomatic of the failure of the LibDems to consider and develop their ideological roots. For far too long, the LibDems have allowed their policy to be dictated by the Campaigns Department. This I have seen described as Rennardism. Whilst to some extent successful, this is simply a formula for winning General Election seats by-election style. It is the formula behind the incremental advances in 2001 and 2005 but not good enough for winning power.
Bullseye quite rightly points out that many of the seats won from Labour in 2005 were Tory as recently as 1992. For success in similar seats in the future, the LibDems need to develop a package of policies which unites economic and social liberalism rather than a simplistic list of complaints and grumbles. Hopefully, from my point of view, Norman Lamb’s motion to the LibDem conference introducing an element of private ownership to the Royal Mail is a harbinger of change in LibDem policy making.
Tabman –103 - wrong thread but in regard to PR – there was a small discussion some time ago on PR instigated to a question I put, the main contributor IIRC being book value – previously I was neither for or against it just accepting the first pass the post system. The views/opinions expressed were to me quite interesting focusing I think on the STV method, I researched it in a bit more detail going onto various governments websites (mainly New Zealand) which explained the pro’s and cons of this system and to be honest if a system like it was the subject of a referendum I would vote for it. I am a big believer in “people power” and would like to see a lot more referendums with the issues clearly explained before hand if this is possible like the Swiss have – Police Chiefs to be elected etc – if in doubt ask the people – you might not get the answer you want but that is the price of democracy.
Bullseye @ 101 (and anyone else gyte enough to care): Statistical trivia Q1: Why was Bridgwater unique in the GE2005?
101/105 - In much of the country the party operates like a residents association with a social conscience, rather than a political party with an ideology.
Tho I don’t disagree with Bullseye’s pithy take, I’m not sure this is restricted to the Lib Dems. I suspect a lot of local parties (certainly activists), across all the parties, comprise people who have been motivated to get involved by a local issue - and have looked to the party which is most active in their area to get something done about it. Inevitably, then, many local parties/councillors have quite parochial concerns which don’t neatly fit an ideology.
What has been encouraging in recent times is that the Lib Dems’ support has become more ideologically firm. Peter Riddell wrote in an article for The Times on 10 Dec 03:
Unlike the 1980s and 1990s, when they mainly won protest votes, there is now evidence of a much greater ideological identity between the views of the Lib Dems and of their supporters. On asylum, Iraq and tuition fees, a majority of Lib Dem voters have backed their party’s policy. This may mean a more lasting loyalty than in the past.
107 - I guess Bridgwater was the only place where Labour placed above the LDs in 2005 but below in 2001?
107. I know labour overtook the LibDems to move into 2nd place in Bridgwater (my old home town). Surely it wasn’t the only seat where that happened.
Bridgwater constituency is half Bridgwater town (tory/labour) and half West Somerset (tory/libdem) therefore the conservative majority is permanent.
110 - just run some numbers and it is the only seat where that happened.
111 - I meant “I have just run some numbers” rather than telling you to, Markj. It wasn’t meant to appear rude.
112 bookvalue . Bridgwater - Losing 25% of your vote locally whilst the national party put on 25% takes some doing . Anyone have any futher info on this one ?
113 - I don’t know: and I’m not just saying that to toe the party line. I genuinely don’t know. One would guess that the respective candidates had something to do with it but I’ve no firm information on that.
39. Speaking as an “external resource”, I never like to have to repeat myself. I expect new MPs (and more importantly, their local parties) to put the work in to make their seat safe without recourse to external help e.g. Cheadle, North Norfolk.
This election I campaigned in East Dunbartonshire - next time around I hope it’s somewhere like Glasgow North.
what’s the difference between labour and lib dems ideologically? what do conservatives and lib dems agree on? is labour or lib dem more left when you leave out the iraq question?
thanks
texas aggie
college station, texas
Book value, many thanks; I had a computer problem (incompetence) and couldn’t answer my own question, Yes, indeed. Q2: why is Portsmouth unique among cities? (Going off now to watch football, but Book value or another will give answer(s), I’m sure.
110/113 - Yes Bridgwater is a mystery to me too . The answer must be in the GE candidates or campaign , because the Lib Dems were still comfortably in second place in the County Council results in Bridgwater .
117 - Tricky one the Tories won the popular vote across Portsmouth as a whole. I doubt this is the case in any multi-constituency city, though Canterbury and St Albans, to name two, are single-seat Tory cities.
In Portsmouth the Tories didn’t win either of the seats, but had a good second place in both. So it may be the only city where the Conservatives won more votes than anyone else but have no representation. Do not know if that is the answer you were looking for.
119 - or perhaps the only city where the winner of the city-wide popular vote has no representation. Though there would be questions about, say, Truro, which probably votes Tory while being subsumed by the Lib Dem vote in the surrounding area.
Am I warm?
115 - Ludlow was always going to be phenomenally difficult as the Tory loss in 01 was largely due to them having picked a crap candidate who about 2500 of the local Tories chose not to turn out for - look at the figures for the last three elections. My personal analysis is that we lost this time due to weakness in the eastern half of the constituency, especially Bridgnorth. In reality we were always going to need all the help we could get - it would not be fair to say that the MP didn’t work hard. Instead we chucked resources at Shrewsbury which was always going to be a waste of time, given the recent history of the seat - as it happens the votes we gained there handed the seat to the Tories.
120 - No Truro is pretty solidly un-Conservative they did not even put up a candidate in Truro West at the County election
101 - I am not convinced that there was any great movement at the GE in what you call the floating middle classes except perhaps in a very few odd seats . There was a very large movement amongst the young student population but elsewhere the movement was generally positive but small .
116 texan . Welcome to the site . You may find these links useful in answering your questions . It’s a straight resource devoid of partisanship . Good luck !
Labour Party :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_%28UK%29
Conservative Party :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_%28UK%29
Liberal Democrats :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democrats_%28UK%29
124 - Ah , Jack good historical links which will inform Texan but if had linked Nulab to the Conservative link and Lib Dem to the Labour link and Conservative to UKIP it may have given a clearer idea of politics in 2005 - LOL
125 Mark . Don’t baffle me with common sense and humour when I providing links !! At times I’ve 4 computers on the go !! and yesterday evening I nearly sent my solicitor an interesting email on the Jacobites !! as I nearly lost a few pennies on the New York stock exchange !
Mark @ 123, I’m surprised by your post - Labour fell by 5% the LibDems went up by 4% - surely you’re not saying that that was just students & Muslim voters?
Of course the strudent vote made a big difference but I’m willing to bet that in University seats it was the people working at the Uni as well as studying who swung to the LDs, and the same is true with a swathe of the public sector dependent middle classes.
I got a 6% swing in Vauxhall which has tiny student & muslim populations, the biggest swing coming in the most middle calss areas - which had not history of Libdem representation even at the Council level.
Crudely put I think there is roughly 10% of the electorate, who are the type of voter who broke off from the Tories in 1992 over Black Wednesday - moved wholesale to Blair in 97 and are now split between Labour & LDS, with the Tories still largely failing to win them back.
Bullseye, I doubt you’ve got - or ever have had - many Tories working for Lambeth Council
Surely though, the middle classes in seats like Southgate, Fulham, and Putney shifted in a different direction from their counterparts in Vauxhall?
126 At times I’ve 4 computers on the go !!
127 - Bullseye, playing devil’s advocate somewhat, is there not a risk that these new found public sector voters could desert were the Liberals to become too liberal about state provision?
130 Tabman . Far too modern for me . I have my man power up all 4 computers thus :
http://www.phsc.ca/bicycle/steam_power.jpg
The last time the Liberals had a clear ideological position (economically and socially liberal) was in the 1950s. Their election results at that time were quite spectacular.
131 - ah, you use the Babbage Difference Engine
Book value @ 119,120: Yes, that’s the point: It’s the only city where the split into two (or more) seats denies the majority voters a seat; even if unique, a sufficient argument (in my opinion) to persuade Conservatives of the merits of, not PR, but more proportionality in GEs.
Bullseye: I liked your campaign, which obviously went down well (I visit the constituency nearly every week, as it happens); but would you really want to unseat such a good MP? (Yes you would, of course; but isn’t it a pity?)
127 - I agree it was not solely Students and Mulims nor even Uni employees who I agree also swung heavily Lib Dem . I do not have any figures to back it up but suspect that overall they account for over half the 4 % rise in Lib Dem votes . Overall there was a small swing elsewhere more patchy , good in some seats including yours not so good in others and in a few even a loss .
I am not decrying the result or disagreeing with what has been said to produce a bigger swing at the next GE but merely pointing out that if students swung heavily towards the Lib Dems other groups must have swung rather less or not at all .
Could somebody give me the link to ‘What if Gordon Banks (correct me if I’m wrong) did not play’ where Enoch Powell becomes PM?
Someone asked me about it the other day and I thought I’d send them the link.
Cheers.
136. Jon W, you can find it here http://www.btinternet.com/~chief.gnome/ A bit apocalyptic, but a great read nonetheless.
Thanks Lorcan, I’m sick of reading ‘Why Europe will run the 21st Century’ tonight! Only 2 chapters to go, nevertheless it would be good to read something lowbrow for a change.
O/T: the District Council by-election in Broxtowe on Thursday is shaping up interestingly, as all three parties have put a great deal of work into it. It’s a former Labour seat but last time was narrowly won by the LibDems with 496/471, vs 465/453 for Labour (i.e. average majority 25) and 174/173 for Tories, on a low turnout. Traditionally the Tories have just not bothered here, and some of their vote probably went LibDem instead, but this time they’ve piled in and have had more canvassers and leafleters than anyone, with a bright candidate who it’s thought hopes to stand for Parliament in the future. The LibDems are running with a former town Mayor, and Labour has a former County Councillor who was unhorsed in May due to boundary changes. A series of LibDem and Labour leaflets have traded charges about who is more local.
Obviously lots of people are away, adding a random element, but around half of those who I’ve canvassed have seemed quite interested. It’s hard to call - the stronger Tory effort could split the anti-Labour vote, but the LibDems hold every borough and county seat in the town and are fighting hard. So are we - I’ve rung about a third of the ward’s doorbells personally in the last week: it’s a Labour town at GEs and I’d like to help start a recovery locally. My impression is that the proximity to the GE is helping the Tories do better than they usually do, because people have recently had lots of Tory literature, which in this area they normally never get. They think they can win, which is probably too hopeful, but they could get second. All good fun!
Texas Aggie, first you must remember that the label “liberal” has a rather different meaning in Europe than in United States. Indeed, regarding the economic policies, in many European countries the liberal party is the most market-friendly.
This might not be true in Britain, but at least the U.S. libertarian magazine Reason seems to be quite optimistic about their possibilities to become more liberal (in the European meaning of the word): http://www.reason.com/hod/jvlb050505.shtml .
Here’s some thoughts about the same subject from a British point of view:
http://www.samuelbrittan.co.uk/text193_p.html
http://www.samuelbrittan.co.uk/text208_p.html
http://www.samuelbrittan.co.uk/text215_p.html
39. It would be a mistake for the LDs to target its weaker regions if that’s what you mean, (although the idea of a monolithic SE is odd). It’s not a course of action anybody would advocate to Lab or Con.
101. I agree with JT in 108 that ‘Residents Association with a social conscience’ mentality exists as a strand in all three main parties. This seems to be more common in safe seats where people who really do want just to serve their communities non-politically are naturally attracted to the incumbents. Perhaps the greater strength of LDs in local government in the last 15-30 years means that they have picked up their share of such people in some areas, but they have been added to a smaller ideological membership and so (in some areas) are more noticeable. But if you look at the sub-set of Lib/LD Councillors who made the initial breakthrough in a ward or (especial