Why is ICM witholding its polling data?
August 14th, 2005
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Politicalbetting to complain to British Polling Council
Politicalbetting is making a formal complaint to the British Polling Council over the failure of ICM to make data available in line with its obligations under the Council’s “Statement of Disclosure”.
The complaints relates to the Guardian’s July poll which was published nearly four weeks ago and for which the full data has yet to be published even though we requested it in writing and indeed initially raised the non-disclosure here on the site on August 2nd.
Under the BPC’s rules a pollster is required to …. place the following information on its own web site within 2 working days of the data being published or provide the information to any interested party on request…
* A full description of the sampling procedures adopted by the organisation;
* Computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published;
* A description of the weighting procedures employed including weighted and unweighted figures for all variables (demographic or otherwise) used to weight the data, whether or not such breakdowns appear in any analysis of sub samples
For the July poll just five pages of a PDF file are available online and it is clear from the pagination that a lot has been left out. The five published pages start at at page 7 and end at page 15. What’s available does not include the required “weighted and unweighted figures for all variables”.
We would have sent our complaint to the Secretary of the BPC - but he is Nick Sparrow, Managing Director of ICM and the person who has yet to reply to our written request dated July 25th 2005.
According to a Guardian report when the BPC was established in November 2004 the President, the former boss of NOP John Barter, will refer complaints to a three person panel. It will be interesting to see how this process operates.
Mike Smithson
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Well done Mike. I hope you ruffle a few feathers, not for the sake of ruffling, but because they need to be ruffled. Will be interesting to to see how effective the BPC are.
As effective as the Press Complaints Commission.
Or the Parliamentary Standards (sic) Committee!
Anyone here seen how much dosh the industry have given the Parliamentary Beer group over the years? And now we have all-night drinking. QED?
3- Cripes yes- it’s here ( http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/cm/cmparty/memi140.htm ). I make it about 60 grand, PLUS additional “hospitality” at the group’s annual dinner.
That’s a lot of refreshments, even for those guys.
And as you may imagine, I’m shocked to find some of our Tory MPs involved in the quaffing, including, it would appear, Ken Clarke. But I expect he was just watching.
Bet he wasn’t doing the watchink up!
4. Good on you Wat - I love the way you never miss a chance to attack anybody who might be a competitor to David Davis in the Tory leadership contest. My particular interests, as you know, are politicians who try to cover up their baldness by using a toupee or other artificial cover up or have a hair graft.
Can I repeat the question to you that I have put a number of time in recent days? What can you, as the blogger cheer-leader for David Davis, no doubt acting with his support, say about your man in this respect?
At least half of all men over the age of 50 have male pattern baldness - funny how that proportion does not seem to apply to leading politicians.
Baldie- you know what? I have absolutely no inside info on this whatsoever. But I have seen DD’s hair at a handshake’s distance and I’d be amazed if it was anything other than his own. It looked much too well rooted (although I confess I didn’t actually give it a tug).
As for male pattern baldness, I’m about his age and I still sport a complete- though greying- Beatle cut. So I don’t find his lack of syrup at all surprising. Sorry.
Much more interesting, I think, is the widespread and sometimes fairly ludicrous use of home hair dye. Always boot polish black, and always vehemently denied.
Now…which of the leadership contenders does that I wonder?
Wat 8. I agree with you completely on the hair dye - and certain other candidates do look ridiculous. At least DD’s top is the correct colour for a man of his age.
Mr Smithson, one person who cna’t be accused of this is of course Malcolm Rifkind. Can I also refer you to today’s Sunday Telegraph where he gave an excellent interview on his aspirations for the leadership, and where he made it plain that his best qualification was having been away from the mess created in the last 8 years.
Is Malcolm Rifkind making his criticisms today because he has realised he has no chance - or is it the the beginning of a strong run as a contender - the answer to this could make you some money - anyone know it ?
… or because Rifkind is (a la Willets and May) just laying down a marker for a senior shadow cabinet job?
12 If M Rifkind wants to be leader it might be best not to call his party ‘defective’. I don’t know if it is true in Edinburgh but in the Midlands that has a very specific connotation relating to mental capacity. And if he didn’t know that should he not have?
MR is an honourable man who refused to give up easily in Pentlands. He did well in the MOD and FCO starting to cut the latter down to size. But he is from the past, was a majortette and is associated with failure. Being Scottish is no hindrance as he sits for an English seat and as a potential PM and de facto First Minister of England he would raise no constitutional issues as Gordon Brown would sitting for a Scottish seat.
Unlike Ken Clarke he has done work for the party while out of office and out of parliament and has not chased a personal fortune through dodgy business associations.
But while he would be a safe pair of hands he would be unlikely to inspire the populace with a fervour even to get a 5.5% swing. He would add an aura of honesty to the front bench, however, that would be invaluable to a new leader.
12 Deep despair… clearly Rifkind has learned absolutely nothing from Teresa May’s ” nasty party” own goal.
Here’s a stick - please hit us with it!
Still, although you non Tories out there will (quite rightly !) gloat, it hammers another remote chance that he might have had into further oblivion.
As one of your previous posters said .. he’s positioning himself for a job in the next shadow Cabinet and I suspect is aligning himself with Cameron.
Regarding the ‘thread’ (of the polling data)I fully understand/accept
the ‘principle’ regarding access and salute the action taken.
Is that ‘it’ though please ? or is there any suggestion that the data is dramatic/rougue and is being suppressed please ?
9. Can’t be accused of what?
12/13 Blue2win/Tory Boy . David Cameron has warned Rifkind to stop “trashing the brand” according to a report in the “Times” this morning . Cameron also attacks MH and says :
“There have been times in the Conservative Party when we have played too much particular tunes on perhaps crime and immigration .
We need to talk about quality of life issues and the enviroment and public services ….. modern conservatism should be about those things.
Cameron’s attck on Rifkind was in response to an article in the “Sunday Telegragh” where Rifkind said :
The choice is whether we continue down the cul-de-sac of the last eight years or whether we choose an alternative Conservative tradition .
The last eight years have been deeply defective … There is no excuse that is convincing as to why a party that has been in opposition for eight years should be flatlining. To have no increase in the Conservative share of the vote , despite the intense unpopularity of the government is indefensible. ”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk
Click Britain and then Full List of Articles and then scroll to 15th item “Don’t Trash the Brand”
Did any of the other papers pick up on the guardian story re ken clarke?
16 Alex . Which story ? There is a short piece in the “Gruntfutuck” today that states that Ken will stand if the final decision is left to MPs .
17. The one on this site re the Euro. what rag are you referring to? the guardian?
18 Alex. I haven’t seen much media response to the Ken/Euro story either in print or on the idiot box .
BTW “Gruntfutuck” comes from an office party indescretion of the loud agricultural carnal variety down Farringdon Road way a couple of years ago . The names escape me , but my memory does return with the delivery of the odd couple of cases of single malt !! And what with “The Not Bruce Anderson” cases I could do rather well !!
Sorry i’m still confused, are you talking about a columnist or a newspaper? By the by is there a latest headcount of public declarations of support for each candidate?
15. I wouldn’t say that’s a direct attack on MH. Just trying to show he has “answers” to obvious problems i’d say.
19 - and where is this golden nectar to be delivered?
Does your indescretion rate with the mythical tapes of a presenter of a certain Friday morning interview show on Radio 4?
20 Alex . “Gruntfutuck” is the rag . “Gruntfutucker” is one of their journos and “Gruntfutuckista” is a reader . I’m awaiting the OED to acknowledge the verb “to gruntfutuck” meaning to enthusiastically have intercourse falsetto at the workplace.
21 One of my representatives will collect said “golden nectar”.
http://www.thelaughingstock.co.uk/acatalog/22660.jpg
I couldn’t possibly comment on the merits of certain broadcasters , at least not unless a similiar nectared fee was forthcoming . Indescrete moi ……
She won’t get it without a struggle …
Well, I’m prepared to coment for a case of St Emillion (which would be cheaper than your two of whisley
)
23 Tabman . “…two of your whisley ?????????”
You will certainly not get me drinking rose hip or dandelion wine !!!! YUK .
24 - I always thought you were more hip-replacement than rose hip.
25 Tabman . In my earlier days this sort of hip :
http://www.matt-garrett.com/photos/friends/hippy-dave-1.jpg
Jack - Are you sure thats you in your younger days and not a feeble attempt to infiltrate the local Lib Dems!
Cracking picture though. I bought this amazing looking pink studded leather belt at the weekend. A snip at £60. The (hot!) girl in the shop told me it looked amazing but my girlfriend says I have to retyrn it!
15 Jack, thank you, I had seen that already.
That’s where my suggestion of alignment came from - by deliberately offering DC a chance to smite him with a ’strong’ response.
Let’s face it MR candidacy is a joke - even he can’t seriously think he has got a prayer surely !?
27 - “I bought this amazing looking pink studded leather belt at the weekend.”
Was this for the wedding outfit? I thought you were supposed to keep the details a secret from Jack
28. No, but it might buff up his profile, and a respectable first round Vote say 20 MP’s, who vote for him while they wait to see which way the wind blows might wring a goodish Job Shadow Foreign Sec, Chancellor etc out of some of the other Contenders.
Hmm.. J Peasemold Gruntfuttock was the King of All Peasemoldia as far up Buttermole Street as the Pub, some time Dictator, Archkeeper of the Scroads and occasionally Chief Rabbi, if I recall. The primary goal of said Mr. Gruntfuttock was to be a flaming nuisance- which I beleive he acheived, certainly after he had been hearing the voices again. Mind you I think the delights of Clerkenwell are probably a little too far away from the Balls Pond Road for J Peasemold Gruntfuttock to have had much to do with them- although maybe he wanted to get his hands on Judith Chalmers again…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbc7/comedy/progpages/horne.shtml
27 Max . You’re correct , I’m afraid the costume was not avant-garde enough for the Liberals ! They pushed me towards joining the Scottish Young Farmers ! Now if I’d had a pink studded belt ……
28 Tory Boy . I agree !! Two words I never thought I’d post in response to you ! I’d better have another drink !
Malcolm Rifkind doesn’t stand a prayer , but he adds a little colour and distinction to the proceedings. So we’d best keep him in for the next couple of months .
31 James O . Yes the triple ttt “Gruntfuttock” , an entirely different species from those paragons of virtue and distinction at “The Guardian” !!
32 - Jack, I’m sure you would be a very welcome addition to the Young Farmers. My cousin was chairman of the Borders Young Farmers so I could find someone to put in a good word for you. I’ve met a number of interesting young Lady’s at YF events!
BV - I was actually thinking of a ‘theme’ wedding. Any suggestions are welcome. At the moment its Dukes of Hazard with me dressed as Boss Hogg (Jack dressed as Rossco)! I’m afraid a pink belt just wouldn’t work with the rest of the outfit.
33 - “My cousin was chairman of the Borders Young Farmers”
I did not know the YFs were sponsored. And I had thought a hip book chain like Borders would look for a more modern organisation to bear its name. But perhaps this is the beginning of something and we will soon see the HMV National Farmers Union.
NFU was an acronym with a different meaning when I were a lad, perhaps more applicable to Kevin Pietersen and his catching ability.
NFU was an acronym with a different meaning when I were a lad, perhaps more applicable to Kevin Pietersen and his catching ability.
NFU was an acronym with a different meaning when I were a lad, perhaps more applicable to Kevin Pietersen and his catching ability.
ICM data tables seem to be online now
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