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Is this the White House line-up for 2008?

August 15th, 2005

    Can Hilary become a less divisive figure?

It’s nearly three weeks since we last looked at the 2008 White House race and since then there have been some polls which reinforce the view that the former Mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani will be lined up against the New York Senator and former First Lady, Hilary Clinton.

Usually at this stage in the cycle the suggested possibilities for their parties’ Presidential nominations are people with little name recognition whose first major challenge is to establish themselves as national figures. Not so next time round where the only person who currently looks able to upset the Giuliani – Clinton show is the Arizona Senator and former contender, John McCain.

    When we last discussed the race there was strong view on the site that Hilary Clinton was too divisive a figure to justify her favourite status in the betting. She’s currently just 4/1

Since then there been a number of polls – all of them reinforcing Hilary’s position for the Democratic nomination and Giuliani or McCain for the Republicans.

  • Rudy Giuliani is rating 27% to McCain’s 24% in this month’s Gallup poll on the Republican nomination.
  • For the Democrats Hilary Clinton is outpointing John Kerry by 40% to 16% with John Edwards in third place at 15%.
  • Another Gallup poll had both Giuliani and McCain beating Hilary Clinton by 50% to 45% when those surveyed were presented with the options.
  • Although Hilary’s deficit is substantial it shows a big improvement over some June poll ratings putting her nearly 20% behind McCain. But polls can be deceiving as those punters who piled onto Howard Dean last time round for the Democratic nomination can testify. The former Governor of Vermont was a heavy odds-on favourite until the Iowa caucuses which brought Kerry into the frame.

    Mike Smithson






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