Does the Conservative electoral system matter to gamblers?
August 19th, 2005Would Tory members rally around a candidate rejected by MPs?
Last month, the Conservative parliamentary party voted to accept a proposed change to the party’s constitution which would return to MPs the final responsibility of electing the party leader. In the last contested election, in 2001, Conservative members chose Iain Duncan Smith, despite his having come second to Kenneth Clarke in the MPs’ ballot.
The constitutional amendment must be ratified by a two-thirds majority of the party’s national convention on 27th September, so it is a topic that is still open and still controversial, with the change bitterly opposed by some Conservative members such as our regular contributor “Wat Tyler”, and former MP and chief executive Barry Legg. The uncertainty in exactly how the new leader will be chosen may have made some gamblers wary of making their bets up till now.
But this week, the Guardian’s Michael White has reported that frontrunner David Davis is not taking sides on the issue. Davis is certainly not ignorant of tactical considerations, and his motivation may be that he can only cause antagonism by adopting a position on an event where he has little influence on the outcome. But he may also have decided that he can win on either system. Similarly, Smiths fan David Cameron may be wondering to himself: “What difference does it make?”.
There seems a pretty good case for saying: it makes none. Discussions between Tory activists who comment on this site tend to put them largely into Davis and Cameron camps – just like the party in parliament. It doesn’t feel as if the difference between MPs and members is big enough for one side to reverse the other’s decision, 2001-style. (And even then, rumour has it that Clarke’s total in the MPs’ vote was inflated by Duncan Smith supporters voting tactically to keep Portillo out of the members’ ballot.)
For gamblers, the key question about the electoral system has been on what it does to Kenneth Clarke’s chances. It’s been reported that Clarke will stand only if MPs have the decisive vote. Conventional wisdom says that the members will never choose him due to his history as an EU enthusiast, whilst the MPs are more inclined to compromise for his advantages in voter perception. But do MPs really feel so differently about Clarke? At every election the parliamentary party becomes more EU-sceptical and younger, with less “living” memory of Clarke’s effectiveness at the despatch box. Around a quarter of the current parliamentary party were newly elected in May this year.
At 9/1, it may be worth backing Clarke in the hope that his odds will shorten as he confirms his decision to stand, and you can then lay off at a profit on Betfair. But don’t aim beyond a modest return from this strategy: holding onto a Clarke bet until the end isn’t advised.
Philip Grant
Guest editor
Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.
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I think one of the key points you make is that there are less and less people who will recognise what Ken contributed to the party while he served in Government. Unfortunately for him, having sat on the backbenches rather than serving in a Shadow Cabinet can only count against him. Odds of 9-1 seem quite generous at the moment.
Great first article, Book Value. I like the Morrissey reference. I’m not so sure about the betting advice though.
It seems a dangerous strategy to back Clarke at 9/1, when you don’t think he has a one-in-ten chance of becoming the next Tory leader, on the mere hope that a greater fool will come along and relieve you of your position in time. Like the novice pok*r player, you’d better be pretty sure that you’ve identified which other player at the table is the sucker.
I’d prefer to join Guido on Betfair in straightforwardly laying the no-hopers in this race.
If DD was a Smiths fan, would he be playing Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want while opponents were favouring You Just Haven’t Earned it Yet Baby?
Would Ken Clarke be mulling over I’ve Started Something I Couldn’t Finish while the party at large were hoping A Rush And A Push And The Land Is Ours?
2 - thanks, Michael. You are quite right about needing to be cautious: I think “momentum trading” on Betfair can be rewarding but of course you need to keep your eye on it. And if you have some spare cash, you’re pretty safe laying Derek Laud and Seb Coe.
3 - I think Malcolm Rifkind probably has Bigmouth Strikes Again in mind at the moment.
Personally I think its unlikely that the amendment will not be ratified. I don’t think many people are interested in rocking the vote and causing a divisive argument. Similarly I find it difficult to imagine that the voluntary wing, who have been phenomanally loyal to the party, will fail to fall in behind the eventual winner.
My own feeling is that a Clarke leadership is preferable especially if he teams up with Cameron however I would be happy enough if David Davis won. Either would be a considerable improvement on the last 3 leaders. As I said previously I would imagine a number of polls will come out that will be pretty favourable for Clark which could sway some of the newer MP’s, many of whom have marginal seats.
OT . Very sadly Mo Mowlam died at 8.10 this morning .
Good work BV… my father should be very concerned
Sad news about Mo Mowlam
6 - Very sad indeed. A very honest, straight forward, gutsy politician who will be missed by many across the country and across the political spectrum.
It’s a pity for anyone to die at such a young age.
Returning to the theme of this thread, there are a couple of good articles in the Telegraph today about who’s supporting whom. David Davis does seem to have a very clear lead. Kenneth Clarke’s two problems are his lack of support among MPs elected since 2001 (about 80 in total), and that so many of his backers from 2001 have switched to other candidates. His only recruit since 2001 is John Bercow.
Looking at who’s backing whom, this particular contest seems to be much less ideological than previous ones, which is a good thing.
Sorry BV forgot to say, excellent first post - I’ll try my best to not let it degenerate into an online version of ‘What not to wear’. But no promises mind!
Sad news to hear of Mo Mowlam’s death - at an untimely age and after her first illness through which she was determined to carry on serving.
Robert, Max - thanks.
Dreadfully sad news about Mo Mowlam. Another one of the decent labour MP’s to be taken tragically early.
Very good article. I just can’t see it being Clarke for all the reasons that have previously been outlined. The last few years have proven that the members are a pretty loyal bunch (even if the MP’s aren’t) and I’m sure they’ll fall into line behind the new leader.
Where is all this talk of Clarke/Cameron “dream ticket” coming from? If true it smacks somewhat of desperation.
13 - there was Clarke/Redwood in 1997, so I suppose anything’s possible…
Firstly sad news about Mo Mowlem.
BV - Very good first article, Mike should be worried about a permanant leadership challenge! I cant really see it being Clarke in the end, but certainly see him getting some of the media attention at the conferance so the price should definately shorten at that point. As Michael says at 2, the greater fool theory should work in this case, but if you can’t see who the fool is, it must be you!
O/T - Any updated news on the German elections - last time I heard it was very close between CDU/CSU/FDP overall majority, or a ‘grand coalition’. Not sure if Merkel or Stoiber have managaged to do some PR recovery.
Oh, and Jack W - congrats to Kinkell…
7 Robert/book value . Excellent first effort . We may have a coup at pb.com !! Stranger things have happened !
http://www.londonstimes.us/toons/cartoons/Simeon_MoooCoup2.jpg
BTW like Max , I promise not to change my sartorial or literary style …. sorry !!
13 - Cameron was asked about it on Today and said he wouldn’t rule it out.
Sad news about Mo, the Labour party have lost two who seemed to be in touch with the partys soul.
Re the Tory leadership, the Telegraph (link below) have written off Clarke but their poll seems very bad news for Davis - he hasn’t a majority of MPs behind him, once they have to decide between two front runners surely he is doomed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/08/19/ntory19.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/08/19/ixnewstop.html
BTW how do you make one word red so that it links with another web page?
18 Icarus:
<a href=”http://wwww.somewebsite.com”>word</a>
[19] You mean copy and paste doesn’t work any more :)?
Wasn’t Clarke rejected by MP’s in 1997? Don’t see how they will consider him now. I’m sure it’ll be a straight fight between Davis and Cameron
15 Lennon . Many thanks . Kinkell is still in bed !! Mind you he did slope home in a taxi at 4am after the celebrations . Oh the joys and constitution of youth . His VW is still in the garage , early last night he just kept going out to see if it was still there and to play with the cd player and the other toys !!
I remember my first car - an old Wolseley with hand crank !!
18. I’m not sure if I missed something but that article said that DD had around 74 supporters compared to DCs 26. Surely with 26 more votes needed, DD isn’t doomed.
22 - so will Kinkell be pursuing Mike to the University of York next month?
I only let Mo Mowlam once, back in 2000 when I was a lobbyist @ the Labour party conference.
I was having a lunch with a Labour MP in the conference Hotel. Mowlam was passing by and came up to say a cheery hello to the MP, she perched herslf rather precariously on the table, looked over to me and gave me that big smile then cheekily moved her hand over to my plate and grabbed a handful of my chips, all the while chatting to the MP.
By the time she wandered off half my chips were gone, but Mowlam had won herslf a new fan. She’ll be missed, and though this if often said, in her case it’s true, we are not going to see her like again anytime soon.
18 - Not sure its such bad news for Davis in all honesty. A quarter of MPs havent declared their hands. What will be important is how the numbers stack up when the various contenders drop out, and who they decide to back.
Clarke was selected by the MPs it was the membership (mostly over 40s) in the country who rejected him in favour of someone else.
Thanks Jack W - must ring the Wolseley to book for Sunday tea
24 book value . Mike will be relieved to hear that Kinkell isn’t enroute to York . He’s gap yearing and part of it in the States and Canada and may try a North American college , god help the old colonies and all road users in Hertfordshire !
A good first topic Book Value - as I have pointed out there is the Conservative nightmare scenario where the new proposals fail to meet the 2/3rds majority by just 1 or 2 leaving them in a state of shambles and argument . As Jack W has pointed out this may be wishful thinking on my part but it is quite a feasible outcome .
Yes very sad about Mo Mowlam , she did make a significant contribution to Nulab’s first 5 years .
27 - Clarke was rejected by MPs in 1997 as Bob said. In 2001 he was ahead in a three cornered fight with Portillo and IDS but whether he would have remained ahead in the final round (which he failed to do in 1997) is speculation - quite possibly he would.
28 - well done and best of luck to him. I’ll stay away from Hertfordshire!
27 Icarus . This Wolseley and hand cranks , gulp !! So that’s what John Major enjoyed about warm beer and cycling district nurses !!
http://www.fatbadgers.co.uk/images/wolseley.jpg
31 book value . Don’t think your safe outside of Herts !! Kinkell will be travelling regularly to Emily of Bucks and to the Kinkells of Scotland !! Anyone got a spare red flag !!
33 - I think Labour might have a few red flags gathering dust in the cupboard.
34 Im sure they will have been instructed by party headquarters to trade them in for a bunch of red roses.
There is a very interesting piece over at the site of the Social Affairs Unit examining which leadership candidate has the strongest team backing him: The Airey Neave test: which Tory leadership candidate has the strongest team?
The author - using the pseudonym Watlington, but clearly someone well informed about the Tory machine and knowledgable about who is working for who - argues that Liam Fox has the best team, with David Davis not far behind, although Davis’s team’s strategy might be weak. Watlington argues that Rifkind’s team is woeful.
Watlington’s previous anlyses of the Tory leadership election are also worth reading:Watching Westminster.
Agree it is a very interesting piece although we have to accept that each leadership team will have people helping that we don’t even know about.
The link should have been: The Airey Neave test: which Tory leadership candidate has the strongest team?.
[36-38] Yes, the SAU’s good fun, but they’re bound to puff the candidate they like best, aren’t they? And why not, everyone else does…
Indeed today’s Daily Torygraph seems to be the death-knell for Clarke’s campaign but the BBC cleats on about a dream-ticket with Cameron playing the junior role. There is a lot of sound Tory sense in that though. Clarke becomes Leader (and maybe fails at the polls in 09 but either way can’t last long) with Cameron as Deputy with a wide ranging policy brief. Bring Osbourn on, surly Rifkind, May, Lansley and Willetts would fall into line.
It is a shame that people like Green have deserted Clarke but they have their eyes on plum shadow cabinet jobs under DD. Interstingly one of my actual-tory-paid-up-member friends, who is backing Cameron said he’d just as easily work under a DD leadership. Tory unity shock?
40 - “Clarke becomes Leader (and maybe fails at the polls in 09 but either way can’t last long)”
I would have thought a top requirement is to have a leader who lasts more than a few years. The regularity of Tory leadership changes has already become a running joke, much as the Lib Dem name changes did in the late 80s/early 90s. To have yet another leader lasting just 3-4 years would leave you open to further ridicule. To put it another way, if Clarke is replaced soon after 2009 people would say (with a little statistical game-playing but that’s what politicians do) “the Tories have been averaging a leader every couple of years for the past 12 years”.
“one of my actual-tory-paid-up-member friends, who is backing Cameron said he’d just as easily work under a DD leadership. Tory unity shock?”
Not to me:)
I’m a paid up member who wants Cameron as leader, but I wouldn’t object to a DD leadership. In fact I changed from initially supporting DD to DC. Its only Clarke I really object to.
Whatever the Tories decide, let’s hope there’s no panic on the streets of Blackpool.
Sorry, I’ll leave now.
I’m a fully paid up member who wants Davis as leader, but I wouldn’t cry if Cameron became leader. I don’t think there will be the sort of splits in the party that there are in the labour party with the Blairites and Brownites.
Quick bit of info on the by-election in Livingston. It could be held as early as next month. It seems likely Labour will either choose Jim Devine or Willie Dunn. Either would make a very good candidate who would be hard to beat.
As with 42 & 44 I wouldn’t have a problem with Davis as leader allthough as I’ve said before I have conerns about some of his supporters (woody, Rik W and Iain Dale excepted of course!).
40 - I just don’t see whythe party should even consider going into elections with a view to contemplating defeat. A “two election strategy” is all well and good - but we need to be preparing fro Government now - and that means having a leader that can implement the changes needed to deliver that objective.
If we were to go down the route of planning for defeat - well… we may as well be Liberal Democrats.
You know you love Derek Conway really Max lol. I must say that I ‘m not all that keen on him and Eric Forth but DD does seem to have a wide spectrum of friends. I was reading some of Tony Benns diary the other day and he seems to quite like DD as well as people like Campbell.
46 - Of course a party must fight an election trying to win but at the next GE it should also have answers in place as to what it will do if the likeliest outcome is a hung parliament . A Conservative campaign based on winning with no policy for the alternative would be likely to lose more votes than it gained .
[48] And what Clarke can’t say but is really offering is that he is the candidate most likely to cut the mustard in that situation.
18 - The Telegarph piece is certainly illuminating. I think the key to this election is to be found in teh fianl paragraph…
“The combined tally of supporters for Mr Davis and Dr Fox numbers about 84, with a further 35 or so undeclared judged to be on the Centre Right….. suggesting at least 120 votes for a Right-winder in a final rin off with a candidate from the Left…”
And in what way is that bad news for Davis?
The article confirms DD as a strong odds on favourite. Price is very steady at 1.72 on betfair. I’m on at 7-4 myself and very happy with my bet.
49 I think Clarke is an old-fashioned tribalist who can’t even co-exist with elements in his own party he disagrees with never mind about others. I could easily see Cameron working with LDs or Labour but the rest I very much doubt.
Jon [52] - a “grand coalition” with the Lib Dems as the official Opposition? An intriguing thought, tho’ I can’t for the life of me think under what circs it might come to pass… mind you, I’m sure someone here is shortly going to enlighten me
I’m very saddened to hear about the death of Mo Mowlem. I met her on two seperate occasions, once when she came to my school to speak; she blew everyone away, particulalry in contrast to Sir Patrick Mayhew, who we had come to visit about a year earlier. As someone said of her, “She was a refreshing breath of foul air” in Northern Irish politics, held in genuine affection by all sides (though probably more so by Catholics, given that she once told Ian Paisley to ‘f*%k off’). I echo Bullseye’s comments, or as the Irish saying goes: ‘Ni bheidh a leitheid aris ann’ - ‘There’ll never be the likes of her again.’
22 et al, please pass congratulations to Kinkell. That sounds like three As to me, and having marked 2,000 papers in the past three years I can offer an opinion that you (still) need to be pretty dam’ good to get an A grade!
53 - We can but hope that any such pact is modelled along the same lines as 1918-22 coalition, with Tony Blair reprising the role of Lloyd George
(and Gordon Brown that of Asquith?).
[56] Right you are, I wonder what Betfair’ll give me against a “coupon” election
55 Robert Waller . Kinkell has asked me to pass on his thanks to all on the site and those who e-mailed (my identity is clearly known to quite a few !) to congratulate him . He got 3 A’s and a B …. somehow !!
And then just when you think you know all their little strengths and foibles your children utterly surprise you !
He takes his mother and I, in his car of course , to lunch and just as we are about to eat Kinkell stands up in a full restaurant and makes a lovely and moving speech in honour of his parents and then presents us with a wonderful antique Edinburgh silver photo frame with a recent picture of the three of us in it . Cue many tears from his mother and other ladies in the place and applause and I have to say I was chewing my bottom lip hard too …. a very memorable day !
Perhaps there is a political moral there …. families , however they’re made up , striving hard to make their lives better and more worthwhile . The trick is how to do it and whose best placed to help do it for the majority of the nation .
45 - Just some information on the timing of a by-election. I posted it a week or so ago but I can’t find it now.
The by-election for Livingston does not require the writ to be moved in the House of Commons, because the vacancy occured as a result of a death during a recess. As a result, the Speaker has to issue a writ for the by-election if any two Members of Parliament apply to the Speaker asking him to do so. This can only be done while the House is in recess, so if it hasn’t been done by the time the recess ends, the writ will have to be moved as normal.
OT: Just found out BBC Parliament may be showing the 1987 election night special on 5 September, for anyone whose interested.
Thought I would share two Mo Mowlam memories.
The first took place at the Labour Conference in Brighton a few years ago. We had our Politico’s bookshop stand there and Mo came round to visit followed by some photographers. “Come on boys,” she said in her most alluring voice, “come and have your picture took.” So she stands between myself and my rather younger colleague and puts her arm round us both and poses for the cameras. After she had departed my colleague said to me, “did she do it you too?” “What?” I asked. “Fondle your buttcheeks” came the reply! I was most put out that mine weren’t considered pert enough.
Three years later I interviewed her for half an hour on a radio show. She waltzed into the studio and greeted us with “Hello you wankers!”. She sat down in the studio and I asked her to speak into the microphone for a sound test, so she burped into it. Class. I started the interview off with a smart arse question about how no one in the Cabinet seemed to like her book very much. Being an old pro she completely flattened me.
She truly was a one-off.
German Election Update: 08/19/05
State Television Poll
http://www.heute.de/ZDFheute/inhalt/18/0,3672,2357650,00.html
CDU/CSU- 44%
SPD- 28%
Left/PDS- 8%
Green-9%
FDP-8%
CDU/CSU/FDP combine vote 52%
It looks like the recent troubles of the Union have not had a bad effect upon the Unions polls ratings. Several polls have been released this week and they all show the Union gaining momenteum. Its seems now that CSU leader Edmund Stoiber comments about East Germany have gain the CDU/CSU support in West Germany. The Union nows has 47% support in Western Germany a gain of 5% since the last poll while the SPD have a 28% support a loss of -3%. In the East the CDU is to the most popular party with 32% support a loss of -1%, the SPD 29% a loss of -1% and the Left/PDS at a 23% no net change.
The most interesting part is that now 61% of Germans want a change in government up from 57% just a month ago. They want of a “grand coalition” as also lost support down to just 14%, 34% want a CDU/CSU/FDP government and just 18% want the continuation of the SPD/Green coalition.
On the question of who would make a better Chancellor Schroeder gets 45% awhile Merkel gets 43% within the margin of error. On the question of who they think will win on Sept 18, 68% said the CDU/CSU, 20% said SPD and 12% had no idea.
17 Max David Cameron is, I believe, being spun by the press for a story. He said if KC thinks he has support should stand and the same went for himself. When pressed he said he would at this stage rule nothing out and it was best for him to concentrate on the current discussion on policy. I think he meant simply that and only that.
The key passage is in the last minute of the interview.
When’s the actual election Heinrich? I thought also that Die Linkspartei was averaging 33% in the East and 12% overall. Has there been a decline in their fortunes or did I just overestimate their support?
The eleciton is on Sunday Sept 18th. The Left Partys support has slip in all the polls released this week. The state t.v poll http://www.heute.de/ZDFheute/inhalt/18/0,3672,2357650,00.html numbers have the Left/PDS at 23%, other polls like Forsa and Emid have then at 26% to 31%.
Heinrich is taking the most recent and mpost optimistic (for the CDU) of the three polls in the last three days. For a full overview of polls see
Umfragen
Worth bookmarking as there are daily updates (and links to polls all over the world). The PDS is still ahead in the East in some polls but appears to have gone slightly off the boil, with 9-10% typical overall, probably because the SPD has recovered a little and is nudging 30%. Most polls show a centre-right lead of 50-47 or thereabouts.
Well it is the poll that is the most recent because it was released today.
Not most polls Nick ALL of them show a Union and FDP coaltion.
I hope nothing happened to PB.com posters while I was away.
Has Nick Palmer defected to Respect? Has Mike Smithson said something positive about Gordon Brown?
Have Sean Fear and AH Matlock decided to move to Buckingham to run the “Bercow4President” campaign?
Has Book Value opened the Helen Clark Fans Club (I want to join it!)?
Has Jack W praised the French Revolution?
If the answer is yes, a strange illness affected Britich people (no doubt linked to the Iraq war according to Clare Short. If she won’t make this link, she affected by this illness too).
I hope those posters will reassure me that everything is like usual.
Hello Andrea. I hope you enjoyed Venice. Most of us here are refreshingly unchanged.
I like the look of the iKauder podcast thingy on the CDU site. Perhaps the Tory party could get an equivalent iMaude for the next election.
Despite being committed to David Cameron, I have said in the past that I would feel comfortable operating under David Davis as well. Or any of the other candidates for that matter, including Ken Clarke provided he moderates his position on the single currency. I don’t think there are near the divisions in the party that people seem to think there are.
My sense of the contest is that Clarke is once again fading, having received a filip a few weeks ago after the revelation that he may be prepared to compromise on Europe. It is clear in the analysis put out by the Telegraph today that KC’s past support is bleeding in all directions and I just don’t think it’s going to happen for him.
Davis appears to have a clear lead, but he is still 26 votes short of the number needed to win a ballot of MPs. Sean Fear observed earlier that this contest seems to be far less idealogical than others in our recent past, and this means that Davis may not be able to count on all MPs categorised as ‘on the right of the party’ to support him. Personality becomes a factor here, and it’s no secret that Davis has made enemies within the Parliamentary party over the years. My intuition tells me that it will be a straight-up contest between Davis and Cameron and that Cameron will just squeak it in the end, but we’ll see.
I do agree with Max in that I think there is very little prospect of the amendment changing the voting system NOT being adopted on 27th September by the Constitutional Convention.
WRT the German Elections, I still think that whatever the polls show, Die Linke will fail to achieve anything like 13% on polling day and that the CDU/FDP will have a working majority in the Bundestag, making Merkel Chancellor. There… I’ve nailed my colours to the mast.
69. Book Value, I’m glad no of you has changed. Under the summer’s sun strange thing could happen!
I was able to spot the covers of British newspapers (Sun, Daily Mail, Mirror between the tabloids and the Guardian, Independent and Telegraph. At the camping I was staying they weren’t selling the Times, strange, baceause I though it was the more mainstream).
I read about Cook’s death, about Clarke is standing for the tories leadership, about Blair’s secret holidays (come one, a politician should know that he couldn’t die while Tony is sunbathing) and about the revelations concerning the Brazialian man’s death. I even saw on The Guardian that Bob Marshall Andrews is concerned about something Blair did and he has come to the realization that Blair he’s a populist (well, he took 8 years to realize it. he’s a bit a slow learner).
Have I missed something else very important?
68 Andrea . Liberte Egalite Fraternite ……..
Welcome back , hope your vacation wasn’t too full of pigeon …..
http://www.red-top.com/files/nosterud/01.jpg
67 - Heinrich, I sensed a week or so ago that Schroeder’s undercover ally George Bush was going to play the Iran card and give Schroeder the opportunity, in turn, to play his anti-american cards agains for electoral success.
Should there be rumblings about Iran from the US, is there any chance that this could happen or would he simply be outflanked on the left? Or is it simply a case of ,Die Ökonomie, Dummkopf!’ being the deciding factor?
74. My dear Jack, I went to Venice city center twice and I was suprised by the lack of pigeons! I visited St Mark square early in the day, so no tourists, no food, few pigeons. If you move away from the big touristic areas (and the other areas of the city are beautiful too), there’re less pigeons and they look healthy (some of them are too fat!). I spotted unhealthy old pigeons only in front of the Gesuati’s church (but I’m not sure if they looked older the pigeons ouside the church or the women praying insiede it).
71 - I would feel comfortable operating under David Davis The mind boggles …
76 Andrea . No pigeons in St.Marks !! I reckon either Nicholas Soames has scoffed the lot in game pies or some entrepreneurial Scot is deep frying them down the back streets of Glasgow !! …..or perhaps Fatty Soames is deep frying them in the Caledonian Club in Sussextra Large and Mid.
78- I didn’t say no pigeons in St Mark, but few pigeoson for St Mark. It’s different. It was only 9 o’ clock in the morning. I bet that an hour later the sqaure would have been full of Japanese tourists and pigeons!
79 Andrea . Quite …. all those pigeons with cameras and those Japanese tourists cra**** everywhere …… very disturbing ….. mind you deep fried Japanese tourist …..
“(And even then, rumour has it that Clarke’s total in the MPs’ vote was inflated by Duncan Smith supporters voting tactically to keep Portillo out of the members’ ballot.)”
all those talks about tory members being out of touch with the modern UK and not being able to chose the best leader and so MPs should have the last word, but who voted out the best candidate (Portillo) last time? The MPs and they knew that the members wouldn’t have voted for Clarke because of Europe.
77 - I’m sure in your case it wouldn’t take much.
77-82. The crucial question is if you’ll feel comfortable to have Ann Widdecomb and Nicholas Soames operating under you….
83 - When you get to be my age, you have to take what you can get.
Ken Clarke=John McCain
Go Ken Clarke
I can’t understand why the tories can’t devise a more common sense method such as party members vote on anyone who wants to run and then the mps chose from the top two. Or maybe instant runoff voting by the party members would select the leader. Wouldn’t it increase Tory party membership?
Texas Aggie
84. Pay attention, you could get an email from Chris Bryant soon….
Meanwhile, Tony Baldry declared for Cameron
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,9061,1552793,00.html
67: Heinrich: just to clarify - I said that most polls showed a roughly 50-47 lead, i.e. some show different leads - I didn’t suggest that some show the other parties in the lead (though, for completeness, I believe there was one poll that showed a tie - and even in that situation the electoral system would probably deliver a small CDU-FDP majority). It seems to me a bit small for comfort, but on present evidence no doubt you are right that the CDU/FDP will probably get a majority.
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