Saturday markets update, 20th August 2005
August 20th, 2005New, moving and interesting markets this week
We haven’t seen too much dramatic action in the betting on British political events this week, so let’s take a weekend look further afield.
Though when we mention Helen Clark on this site, we tend to be referring to the former MP for Peterborough, there is more betting interest in her antipodean namesake. New Zealand is less than a month from its general election, to be held on 17th September. Australian bookie Centrebet will accept bets in sterling, and has a tight book with odds of 9/20 on Clark’s Labour government, and 31/20 against Don Brash’s National opposition. Betfair also has a market, but there is not much liquidity yet and the odds on both sides are poorer.
Across the Tasman Sea, Centrebet also has a market on the next general election in Australia. With the election likely to take place in 2007, this is probably one for the enthusiasts at this stage. However you can get odds of 11/20 on the Liberal/National Coalition and 13/10 against Labor. Prices are also available on the Liberal leader at the election. Current PM John “call me mate” Howard is the favourite at 33/50 to fight his sixth general election. (He lost his first election, and the party leadership, in 1987, only to make a subsequent comeback which must be a source of enduring hope to William Hague.)
The Irish-based Tradesports exchange focuses on US sports and events and includes a good range of political markets. For the 2008 presidental nominations, Hillary Clinton is the hot Democratic favourite at a probability of 43% (odds of 1.33/1). Among the Republicans, the field are closer together, but the marginal favourite is Hillary’s recent Arctic travelling companion, John McCain, at an implied probability of 19.7% (odds of 4.08/1).
You can also back the Democrats to hold the New York Senate seat in November 2006 – in effect, Hillary to be re-elected – at a probability of 82% (odds 0.22/1). For an incumbent with strong statewide approval ratings in a Democratic state, this must be good value. Bear in mind though that your stake and return are in US dollars, so British gamblers are exposed to currency risk and bank charges.
In Germany, the centre-right remains ahead in the polls, with the CDU/CSU/FDP alliance, led by Angela Merkel, looking to have a good chance of winning a majority of the popular vote on 18th September. Even failing that, it is difficult to envisage the CDU not ending up the largest party. But with the best value available on a CDU win at a modest 6/100, punters would surely need quite some faith in the predictability of politics. Tradesports offers very slightly better value, but once again this comes with the complication of currency risk.
There are no markets yet on Japan’s 11th September election, which looks set to be closer than is usual there, with wide divisions opening in the governing Liberal Democratic party. The conventional bookies may not want to take the risk of offering odds on a subject they don’t know well, but a betting exchange would be able to offer the interested an opportunity to bet against one another.
I hope to cover some of these markets further in the next week, and comments from anyone with an interest in them would be much appreciated.
Newcomers are as welcome as regulars in our discussion section, and there is no need to register with the site – just click the Comments link below, enter a name and email address along with your comment, and it will be published.
Best of luck with your betting.
Philip Grant
Guest editor
Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.
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The Japanese IIRC have a very strange electoral system which I used to kid myself that I understood.
“Though when we mention Helen Clark on this site, we tend to be referring to the former MP for Peterborough, there is more betting interest in her antipodean namesake”
Every occasion is right to name her!
To be back to the more serious Helen Clark, I saw that the polls are predicting that New Zeland Labour Party will be the most voted party, but it could not get an absolute majority.
What are its possible coalition partners (if there’re any)?
OT: Clare Short’s comments about Mo Mowlam’s death:
“Until her ill health, she was incredibly beautiful, she was mischievous, full of sparkle and a joy to be with. She had no airs and graces. She had a PhD, she was extremely intelligent, but she did not try to be a clever dick.”
what does “dick” mean in this context?
Considering it was Clare Short who was speaking, I was a bit worried!
1 - I think the only commonality between British and Japanese Liberal Democrats is their attachment to complex electoral systems. As I understand it, the lower house in Japan has a mixture of constituency and list members, but the constituency seats are not deducted from a party’s entitlement to list seats (as they are in Germany, Scotland or Wales). The upper house is very complicated.
2 - at present in NZ, Labour is in coalition with the Progressives, and has support in parliament from the Greens and the (social conservative) United Future.
“Clever dick” essentially means someone who uses their cleverness to irritate others. I can think of a joke where it is the punchline, too…
3. The Greens are risking to fail to enter the parliament and United Future is set to lose seats
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3380638a14675,00.html
Thanks about the “clever dick” explanation. From Clare Short’s mouth you could expect everything…
Re electoral systems. It’s your one who is too simple
3/4 Andrea/book value . I think the origin of “clever dick” is from Richard Whittington aka Dick . The thrice time Lord Mayor of London in the 14th ? Century
Here’s another clever dick :
http://www.msrc.co.uk/images/gallery/fun_cartoon_walkingstick.jpg
Are there any odds on the next French presidentials, which for punters have the advantage of at least producing a definate winner, unlike parliamentary elections in countries that use PR? They’re also nearer than the US presidentials.
As usual at this stage, there are more than enough people wanting to stand so there should be some good value somewhere. If the left can get their act sorted out this time and confine themselves to less than three of four candidates, they really ought to win. The question then is who? Jospin ought still to be the front runner but it’s far from certain and I’d be looking for a fairly decent return before backing him this far out.
6 - davidh, I’ve not seen any odds for the French presidential election. I agree it would make an interesting market, and the interesting thing about early markets based on named candidates is that you are betting on the contests both within and between the parties.
6.”If the left can get their act sorted out this time and confine themselves to less than three of four candidates,”
I think that the left will have at least 3 candidates: a socia-list, a communist and a green will stand for sure. Then it’ll depend howmany independents and politicians from small parties will stand.
To come back for a little moment to UK, I’ve just discovered this interesting study about MPs and how many constituents actually voted for them.
No MP was elected with more than 50% of constituents voting for him/her. Only 2 MPs got the backing of at least 40% of their total constituents: Gerry Adams (45.2%) and Chris Bryant (41.5%).
5 MPs were elected with less than 20% of their constituents voting for them. George Galloway is one of them. Lorely Burt (Solihull) has the lowest sahree (16.3%).
http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/newspolitics/tm_objectid=15862116&method=full&siteid=50082&headline=most-welsh-mps-elected-by-less-than-a-third-of-votes-cast-name_page.html
Surely Jospin can’t be a contender after being beaten by Le Pen last time around?
It’s a pity there’s been no comment on the Japanese election before now, especially as this could be a mould-breaking election that destroys the LDP as we know it and marks a new epoch in Japanese politics (whether Koizumi and his adherents win or lose) but there’s simply not enough out there about Japanese politics to discuss trends and ramifications.
8: I suspect those figures come from Lewis Baston’s report for the ERS on the GE:
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/publications/briefings/gefinal2005.pdf
11 - thanks for the link. Very interesting.
11. The article said that the study was drawn up by electoral reform group Charter 88 and Active Citizens Transform.
It’s easy to calculate those figures, any of us could do it (with lots of free time and good will).
Sadly, I couldn’t open your link. It blocks my computer (it’s probably a computer against Electoral reform). Does the link include a list of all MPs and the constituents backing them?
If so I’ll try to open it later.
13 - you could actually get the figures you gave* quite easily from Pippa Norris’s spreadsheet, which is a really useful source. If you have some spreadsheet skills, you can get interesting answers out quickly (this is how I answered Jon’s question a while ago on what percentage of people who voted this time voted for the winning candidate).
Observer’s link does quote the “highlights” of the system that you quoted in post 8, but most of the report is about calculating the results of the election under different alternative election systems.
* - except the Northern Ireland ones
14. Thanks Book Value.
I’m able to open the link now. Very interesting.
Now all MPs should learn from Gerry Adams and Chris Bryant to gain supports. It’s pretty scaring!
Any prospect of the Nationals in New Zealand winning the election.
14. The figures I quoted in my post @8 are different from the ones in Observer’s link and I think they’re wrong (the ones at 8).
Lorely Burt polled 20896 votes with a 68% turnout (52313 votes casted). So the total voters in Solihull should be 76931 and 20896 is 27.1% of the total, not 16.3%
I think Andrea it ’s taken of all the elcetorate including those that didn’t vote.
18. yes, but if in Solihull voted 52313 people and the turnout was 68%, the total constituents in Solihull should be 76931.
Lorely Burt took 20896 votes, so she had polled 27.1% of the total potential voters living in her constituency and not 16.3% as quoted in my post @ 8.
Am I missing something?
11-14. I read it. Interesting study, but I’m not 100% in their finding about the potential result with teh AV system.
It’s difficult to predict second preferences.
What do tories voters prefer? Labour or Libdems? They should vote Libdems to reduce Labour’s chances, but the Libdems seem to be detested by them.
Probably it’ll be down to local candidates, even the libdems second preference between tories and labour. Will Libdems posters here consider themself nearer Clare Short or David Cameron? I bet that many of them could find seats where they would have not gave their second rpeference to Labour.
The study assumed that tories and libdems would have chosen Oona King over Galloway in Bethnal Green, but from the 2005 results it seems that they tatctically voted to keep her out.
20 Hello Andrea , Nice to have you back on here to break up the Tabman/Jack W love-fest LOL .
I think you are incorrect in saying that Conservative voters detest the Lib Dems . I think this is true of many of the relatively small number of activists and posters on here but the majority of Conservative voters are pretty much in the don’t hate anyone mould as are most voters of all parties . It is generally assumed probably wrongly that they would split 2nd preferences 2:1 in the proportion Lib Dem/Lab and Labour supporters similarly between Lib Dem and Con but the choice f UKIP/Greens etc complicate matters even further .
19 - for some reason the Solihull turnout was initially reported as about 80%, so there has probably been some confusion with the Lib Dems’ actual votes being divided by the wrong turnout. Your numbers sound more plausible to me.
16 - they were marginally ahead in the polls last week but have slipped back now. I think Labour are rightly favourites but it’s not a foregone conclusion.
20, 21 - I agree it’s difficult to predict second preferences, and to fair to Lewis Baston I think he makes it clear that it isn’t an exact science. He does quote the figures he is using - from memory I think a poll showed Conservative voters would split about 20/55/25 Lab/LD/others. Even so, answering a hypothetical poll is one thing, deciding how to vote when the electoral system changes and you have a good think about it is another thing.
I would vote for a Labour Party led by a Tony Blair long before I would ever vote for a Liberal Party led by a Charles Kennedy, were I not able to vote Conservative for some reason. I think many of my Conservative colleagues would take the same view as well.
21.” Nice to have you back on here to break up the Tabman/Jack W love-fest LOL .”
Have I missed something they made or something they linked?
I’ll go back to some previous threads to check.
“I think you are incorrect in saying that Conservative voters detest the Lib Dems ”
When I claimed it, I was thinking to posters like A H Matlock @24.
It’s probably down to the candidate. I’m not sure how many tories will give their second preference to Jeremy Corbyn or to Jenny Tonge. But politics is a mistery sometimes (I’ve still to find an explanation to some results in this election), so everything is possible.
“but the choice f UKIP/Greens etc complicate matters even further . ”
Add SNP and PC and Scotland and Wales results would unpredictable.
And then add Respect voters in seats with many Muslims.
25.”I’m not sure how many tories will give their second preference to Jeremy Corbyn or to Jenny Tonge”
I left out part of the sentence. It should be “how many tories will give their second preference to Jenny Tonge and how many Libdems will give their second preference to Jeremy Corbyn?”
Book Value, who would you have chosen in Islington North between Corbyn and Nicola Talbot (irrelevant choice because Corbyn polled more than 50%)?
26 - in Islington N I would have certainly preferred Nicola Talbot. But not all that many Tory candidates have views which would fit as well into the Lib Dems as hers.
(And looks have nothing to do with it ;-))
27.
“(And looks have nothing to do with it ) ”
everybody says it…..
Are you sure you would have voted Libdems in Islington North?
28 - yes. But if Nicola came canvassing, I’d have broken it to her gently.
“Book Value, who would you have chosen in Islington North between Corbyn and Nicola Talbot ”
If I lived in Islington North, I’d probably have to go for the more right wing candidate, so, it would be a bit of a wrench, but in the end I’d probably go for Corbyn.
29. It’s so difficult to say to some candidates that you won’t vote them….. maybe this could explain some very wrong canvassing returns.
30. Sean Fear,
if Labour will select for Buckingham someone like Ruth Kelly and the Libdems someone like Colin Breed and they’ll put them in a question time with John Bercow and someone will ask questions about social conservativism, you’ll have troubles to find the conservative candidate.
31 - It would be interesting to compare telephone canvasses to face to face ones. Its probably easier to tell a candidate the truth over the phone rather than when you have to look them in the face.
Just back from Tynecastle so am in a fantastic mood, given the chance of seeing the JT’s win the SPL or the Tories winning the next election I’m afriad theres no contest - party loyalty only goes so far!
I’d suspect that the best way to discover how people would cast their vote under PR would be to take respondents to an election exit poll, present them with the type of ballot papers they might be seeing under different PR systems, and ask them to cast their votes accordingly after explaining them. Even that probably wouldn’t be accurate for a system like STV, but it would give us a fair idea.
33.”Its probably easier to tell a candidate the truth over the phone rather than when you have to look them in the face.”
I wouldn’t dare to tell Glenda Jackson (or Gwyneth Dunwoody) I won’t vote for her. Maybe this could explain why Glenda always fails to find someone who like Blair in her seat.
Max (or other Scottish posters) do you know who will the SNP select for the Livingston by-election? will they stay with Angela Constance?
Andrea - I’m afraid I’ve no idea but I’d imagine they would want to select someone pretty quickly especially if the by-election is held quite soon. As I said on anther thread it looks like the Labour selection will come down to either Jim Devine or Willie Dunn. With Jim Devines union links he’d probably be able to bring in a lot of support for the by-election.
Very disappointed there has as yet been no link to a picture of Nicola Talbot whoever she is…
37 - http://www.islingtonconservatives.com/inca/nicola.html
37. She is one of Book Value’s favourites.
The Islington North libdem candidate looked like a brun-ette version of Candy Atherton:
http://www.laurawilloughby.org.uk/images/background2.jpg
Sadly, I couldn’t find a photo of Jeremy Corbyn with his red jacket (he looked like a red traffic light) and his young son at the count.
Harsh
33. I think people will be more likely to tell you honestly on the phone that they won’t be voting for your party than face-to-face.
But face-to-face you have more chance of finding out which party they will be voting for.
The campaign in New Zealand has only just got underway. As others have said, New Zealand has more similarities with Germany in its political system than Britain. There are two large parties - Labour and National under leaders Helen Clark and Don Brash respectively.
There are a host of minor parties but none of them approach 10% in the polls. The most significant are the Greens and then New Zealand First. United Future is on its last legs and will probably lose all bar two of its MPs.
Both big parties have had their problems. Labour is trying for a third term but is unlikely to get an absolute majority. They lost a lot of Maori support a year or so ago over an issue relating to foreshore rights I believe. The Maori formed their own small party and attracted some initial support but recent polls have shown a Maori drift back to Labour.
National is the conservative or centre-right party. In 1999, it was heavily defeated by Labour in a defeat if anything worse than that suffered by the British Conservatives in 1997. In the 2002 election, they regained ground without looking like taking power. They lost some supporters to United Future and New Zealand First but the election of Don Brash as leader has seen them adopt a more robust and Right-wing platform which has completely undermined United Future, who were a right-wing offshoot of National.
With neither main party likely to gain an overall majority, it’s coalition time. Labour has more options especially the Greens and (possibly) the Maoris. As for National, their only option is New Zealand First under Winston Peters. That would, I think, be analogous to a Conservative-UKIP coalition in Britain.
Neither National nor NZ First have made any overt moves but if Labour were unable to form a Government, it would be an obvious, though potentially very unstable, option.
My guess is that Labour will probably form the next Government with Green support. As over here, Brash may well shore up National’s core vote but may not be able to reach that far beyond.
Doing a brief political visit to Norway the week after next (energy, asylum and general political discussion) - it’ll be interesting to get impressions about the forthcoming election there. The Social Democrats and their allies seem to be well ahead in the polls - pendulum effect, perhaps, as in Sweden where they’re in power it’s the reverse. Norway seems in such great shape that I’d have thought it tempting to vote for the (centre-right) status quo - excellent economy, huge oil reserves, massive invisible earnings due to investment of past oil income, zero foreign debt (I think), modern infrastructure right into deepest rural areas (no fjord without a ferry and a couple of bridges), peaceful, low-crime, good international reputation, what more does one want? Only snag that I’m aware of apart from the permanent European and whaling controversies is that the oil keeps the currency too high, making life harder for other industries. I gather that joining the EU was generally expected in a few years, but the ‘no’ referenda in France and Netherlands shook confidence in the idea and it’s uncertain again (they voted no before, but most parties are frustrated by having to accept EU rules without influencing them).
42.”My guess is that Labour will probably form the next Government with Green support”
The problem is that the Greens could fall below 5% (they averaged 4.8% in the last 6 polls) and end up with no seats.
Then again, just looked at the Norwegian Aftenposten site (I grew up in Scandinavia, hence the interest), and it’s very close - the Social Democrats plus SV (left-wing party a la PDS, but in Norway they’re ready to govern together) plus Centre Party leading by 86-83 or 85-84 depending on the survey. They have a 4% qualifying level to get any seats, and there is considerable doubt about whether Venstre, who support the centre-right, will get any seats.
Most of the parties on both sides seem to agree on the basics: maintain the welfare state, don’t splurge the oil money. There is a hard-right low-tax cheap-petrol party (the Progress Party), with about a fifth of the vote: they support the centre-right as the lesser evil, but are not potential coalition partners for anyone because of their radical views.
45. “it’s very close - the Social Democrats plus SV (left-wing party a la PDS, but in Norway they’re ready to govern together) plus Centre Party leading by 86-83 or 85-84 depending on the survey”
Sorry Nick, but I can’t understand. Who is leading who? and is “86-83 or 85-84″ the % lead?
While not on the thread directly I cannot resist bringing to the attention of Nick Palmer MP and Mark Senior and others who poo-pooed the English Question, and the difficulty a Brown Premiership would have, an article by that well known Scot Andrew Neil in the Spectator.
The whole article is well worth a read . You need to register for the whole thing but that is free. I cannot comment on the Scottish references but the ones about England do have resonance.
Devolution has changed all that. The English increasingly resent Scots in charge of English affairs now that Scotland has control of its own domestic matters.
I see this resentment on the Daily Politics show I present for BBC2. When politicians from Scotland pontificate on English matters, the emails of complaint pour in. Some don’t even like the fact that I, a Scot who has lived in London for over 30 years, question Scottish politicians who have responsibility for English affairs. When do the English have a say? they ask, not unreasonably.
The growing resentment is a consequence of the asymmetric devolution plan, which gave Scotland its own Parliament, but not England. Great Britain has become a two-class state: those with home rule (Scots and Welsh) and those without (the English). The resentment will grow and make it less acceptable for Scottish politicians from Scottish constituencies to run English departments, which in turn will make it less attractive for high-flying Scots to go into politics in the first place. The absurdity of the devolution settlement will come to a head under Gordon Brown who, when he becomes prime minister, will promote policies on health, education, the environment and transport, not one of which will apply to his own constituency. The English will rightly find this unacceptable, however much he rabbits on about his new-found devotion for ‘Britishness’.
Andrew Neil Spectator August 2005
Andrea at 26 - there were lots of former Tory voters who backed Jenny Tonge (and still do). Don’t fall into the Conservative trap that she is some sort of Trotskyite clone. The reason why Richmond Park continues to vote Lib Dem (with the highest turnout in London) is because the electorate is basically socially liberal (unlike east London).
Max at 33. Don’t hold you’re breath on either count. Rangers for the the SPL and Labour for Livingstone. The question will be will the Tories hold on to 4th place and what will Hearts supporters do when the mighty Hibs are representing Reekie in Europe (for the 97th time)?
47-Looks like the same article by Andrew Neil appeared in saturday’s Telegraph under the title ‘The Fall of the Scottish Raj’
‘It always seemed bizarre that the Scottish political establishement,which is overwhelmingly Labour,opted for devolution exatly at the time when the Scottish Raj was taking control of the commanding heights of the British state ,Scots were running the UK show (Blair,Brown,Dewar,Irvine,Robertson,Cook), it was inconceivable that Scotland could lose out,so why opt out?Blair sensed this at the time but could not oppose it because the prevailing Labour view was what John Smith would have wanted’.
‘After Gordan Brown,last viceroy of the Scottish Raj,there will probably never again be a Scottish prime minister of Great Britain from a Scottish constituency;even a Scottish politician from an English constituency might find it tough,unless he loses his Scottish accent and sounds like Tony Blair’.
Seems it is an issue that is gradually gathering resentment and prominance.
Andrea at 46: Sorry - the figures given are for seat counts. There are two potential governments: a centre-left coalition of social democrats (Arbeiderpartiet), socialists (SV) and agrarians (Senterpartiet), or a centre-right government, as now, with all the other parties in Parliament except the Thatcherite Progress Party, which is too far right to be acceptable to the other parties in Norway but which supplies support from outside to keep the centre-right in power. At present, it appears that the former alliance, let by Stoltenberg, will have a slim majority, and the general expectation is that they’ll win, but it’s close. The odds offered by Ladbrokes and Betfair put Stoltenberg as 3-1 odds-on, and this appears a bit much. The Norwegian electoral system is BTW only semi-proportional, with PR in each county but no national top-up, making extrapolation from the polls difficult.
blue2win and john: yes, Andrew Neil is interested in the issue. It’s a Beltway thing. The general public, in my experience, isn’t, except as an “And another thing!” issue raised by committed Tories.
50. Thanks.
48. Excluding her foreign politics views, she seems not very different from tipycal Libdems.
I expected places like Richmond Park not being very socially conservatives. I doubt voters there are shocked with single mothers (are there statistics about the seats with the highest % of single mothers?).
A couple of weeks ago when I said that Libdems voters are probably more socially conservatives that their MPs in some seats (like Cornwall), Book Value said he thinks that the gap is closing now. BV, why? It’s because the Libdems won seats in some probably not socially conservtaives areas(Cambridge, Bristol West, Hornsey) or because your MPs are starting to become more socially conservatives?
Or maybe both?
51 - I meant more because we are picking up the kinds of voters that won us those seats you mentioned, than the parliamentary party becoming more conservative. There has always been a reasonable spread among the MPs - I don’t think they’ve ever been universally socially liberal.
John [49] - it all depends on how you spin it, I suppose. Max Hastings has a longstanding bee in his bonnet about how London subsidises everywhere else…
47/49/50 B2W/John/Nick. In my own way as a very minor member and functionary of the “Scottish Raj” may I say I have enjoyed greatly plundering the wealth of England , having my wicked way with the natives and I look forward to maintaining the Scottich Imperial tradition and Empire for some time to come . There may of course come a period when you are fit to run your own affairs but presently the English natives appear to lack the wit , industry and application to secure their independence .
Comment by Sir Jack McMountbatten of Hertford-shire and Kinkell
Permanently Under My English Secretary
Department of Under Achieving English Football Team
52.”There has always been a reasonable spread among the MPs - I don’t think they’ve ever been universally socially liberal”
well, the majority of them aren’t socially conservatives. I think Colin Breed is the most consistent socially conservative between them.
Alan Beith is socially conservative regarding abortion and embryo experimentation, but he seems not to have problems with gay couples and single mothers.
It Begins…
LibDem’s have a candidate selected and have begin light leafleting of the area (the torrential showers are clearly visible now over the horizon.
http://www.libdems.org.uk/party/people/person.html?id=1045&navPage=inyourarea.html
Labour looking to Cook’s friend and leading trades unionist Jim Devine to run.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=1777922005
Nothing yet from the SNP, nor from the Tories, but more importantly nothing yet from the SNP.
Oh and this could be a triple by-election, with Dunfermline and West Fife MP Rachel Squire likely to step down due to ill health and the possibility of a Labour MSP from Glasgow jumping before he’s pushed after a corruption scandal.
It never rains but it pours… what is with my rain analogues today, it beautiful outside, I’m even thinking of rustling up the Barbie.
56. Other names for the Labour nomination in Livingston are Willie Dunn, Ross Martin (a former local councillor), Keith Geddes (the former leader of Edinburgh City Council) and John Duncan (Cook’s former researcher).
The Libdem’s candidate looks a bit like Ruth Kelly.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/2/22/RuthKelly.jpg/180px-RuthKelly.jpg
Is Tony Blair still on holiday?
Ben [56] - I don’t believe the bit about Brown wanting Cook as his deputy, he knows about balancing the ticket
54 - Jack - rest assured that as a paid up member of the ‘English Raj’ (Small Businessman Class) in the Highlands I can assure you that the rajering can go both ways.
58. I was actually think who could be the perfect duputy to Brown.
There has been talks on newspapers in the last days. They suggested Hain, but I don’t see a Scotland-Wales ticket so well (the tories are already complaining about Brown being Scottish, if he’ll have a Welsh dubuty, they’ll go crazy!). Blunckett is another name suggested.
If they’ll want to go for a woman, Hewitt is the name suggested the most.
Someone suggested even Clare Short, but I think there’s more chances to see Alan Simpson as deputy leader than Clare Short!
60 - I’m hoping to do an article on this at some point. I think you are right about Clare Short…
56 Ben . Thanks for the update . Never let it be said that the grass allows the Lib Dems to grow under it !!
http://www.airtechs.co.uk/new_scans_160102/acresofgrass1a.jpg
61. Ok, thanks. I’ll wait for your article.
Meanwhile I’ll launch the “Helen Clark 4 Deputy” campaign. I have only to understand in what party she is in now…..
59 Stephen . We’re quite happy for small scale immigration in the Highlands in order that the roads are swept well . I do hope you are integrating well - passing the Tebbitt/Kinkell test - supporting Cally Thistle and learning the language !!
47,49 - I am sorry but I still see no clamour for an English Parliament in the pubs clubs and workplaces I frequent . The cry seems to be coming from a small vociferous section of the Conservative Party who conveniently forget the Unionist part of the Conservative title and who’s views would fit in better with one of the ultra right wing minor parties such as BNP or the English Freedom Party rather than a mainstream party seeking to govern the country .
64 - Jack, I started low by attending a Ross County match and eating chicken curry pies. I practice saying ‘reet enuf’ in the mirror as best I can but it’s going to take some time to perfect.
I haven’t received the call to serve in the similar Department of Under Achieving Scottish Football Team yet - alas, I suspect that even if the Good Lord Himself were to chair this department, He would be powerless to do anything to improve their fortunes.
58 - Innocent Abroad
Agreed I think he’d have been party chairman, personally, and boy would there have been a lot of support for that.
As for who would have been/will be Deputy to Brown when (you can say “if” if you like… though I wouldn’t advise it) I think its highly likely to be an English MP, not because there is a lot of latent antipathy towards having a Scottish PM in England but simply to balance the ticket.
Alan Johnson is a possibility, he’s effective, boasts an impressive background in the trades union and can claim to be a credible voice for Labour white working class core vote, very much like Blunckett but with a the baggage and propensity for gaffes.
60 – Andrea
I agree with you about Short, there is no chance anyone Labour leader in their right mind would back her for deputy or want her, nor would she stand a chance in the election, most of the grassroots seem to view her as pretty discredited after her appallingly ill judged resignation pantomime. And I think your right that Hain being a Welsh MP would weight heavily against him… also his move to Northern Ireland seems to have moved him somewhat out the fray, though I like to say that’s he one of the better strategic minds in the party at the moment.
Overall I’m inclined to agree with you that Hewitt would be strong candidate, naturally I’d say that being Leicester based
that said she’s a gifted politician and a good strategic mind she is also a credible figure to act as the party’s face and has a significant base of support and effective within the party which is also reflected in her constituency, remember there was less than a 1% swing against her at the general election and her majority went down by just 500 votes (!) reflecting a pro-Labour trend in Leicester which was in marked contrast to most other areas 
62 - Jack W
Well I wouldn’t like cast aspirations
but…
67.”I agree with you about Short, there is no chance anyone Labour leader in their right mind would back her for deputy or want her, nor would she stand a chance in the election, most of the grassroots seem to view her as pretty discredited after her appallingly ill judged resignation pantomime”
I think that Clare Short isn’t even thinking to stand and she’ll probably retire at next election. I could picture her announcing her retirement a week after Blair standing down as PM. She’ll say something like “I feel vendicated. Now that Blair in out of the picture and UK and the Labour party are no more in danger, I could enjoy a peaceful retirement”.
60 et al - Surely, given the historical frictions between No 11 and No 10 and Prime Ministers, the more important longer term question will be who will be Gordon’s Chancellor?
65 Mark . How could you miss out the Gary Bushell Fan Club aka The English Democrats from your post !!
66 Stephen . Touche ! I think the Almighty and Max are presently helping Heart of Midlothian to stay top of the SPL !
You may find singing a few Scots tunes will help with the language problems and order some beers too !
http://www.atuttabirra.com/catalogoscozia.htm
67. I hope you’re right about Hewitt as deputy leader.
71 - I assume you favour her on “the worse the better” grounds woody?
Though as I’ve said, I don’t really mind her by the standards of the current Cabinet.
71. Woody, this is for you not to forget her:
http://editorial.gettyimages.com/source/search/details_pop.aspx?iid=53159096&cdi=0
Just had a look at a picture of Julia Goldworthy on the BBC website. Dose anyone else think that if she had short hair she’d be a dead ringer for Sinn Fein/IRA’s Mitchell McLoughlin. Then again it could just be a bad picture!
Had a very difficult time with the Girlfriends parents last week. Got on to the subject of books. Her mother asked what book I’d read last. The honest answer was ‘The enemies within’ by Ian McGregor but with her dad’s union links I thought it was best to tell a white lie so I said the first thing that came into my head which was unfortunately the ‘Unbearable Lightness of Being’. Don’t suppose anyone knows what its about or if its any good?
74 - sounds like a bit of a university interview with the girlfriend’s parents! I have read “The Unbearable Lightness of Being” and enjoyed it. There is a brief summary here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unbearable_lightness_of_being
The element they don’t really mention in there is the anti-Communism. There is a long passage on Communism as “kitsch”, which is a running concept in Kundera - he uses the word in the sense of a corrosive conformism. I don’t have the book with me at the moment but there’s a quote that runs something like “Kitsch says ‘how nice to be moved, along with everyone else, by the sight of children running on the grass on a sunny morning’”
I have the film adaption too, though I didn’t enjoy it that much. A lot of delicate ambiguity is destroyed by transferring it to film. However I suppose that DVD technology makes it easier to skip the dull parts and find
Juliette Binoche nekkidthe important philosophical elements of the work.74. “Unbearable Lightness of Being” is a classic. There’s a movie with Daniel Day Lewis and Juliette Binoche about it.
I’ve never read it, although it was always in books list you should have read during the summer when I was at school.
About New Zeland elections, the alst poll is quite good for Labour
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3384453a10,00.html
8 points lead for Labour and teh Greens at 6%.
72. I just think she represents all of what new labour are about. A patronising and nanny state.
I’ve just been asked two random questions, and the Rioja isn’t even open yet…
1) What is the most working class Tory seat?
2) What is the richest Labour seat?
I guessed 1) Gosport 2) Hampstead and Highgate. Is that near enough?
74. Max, did your girlfriend’s parents ask you discuss the book?
You could have gone for safer choice (just in case they wanted to talk about the book): a biography of Blair and Brown.
What are the hottest books of the moment in UK? I suppose Harry Potter and then what?
78. Battarsea could be another possibility for question 2 and Havant for question 1
74&76 - Thanks very much. Fortunately they didn’t press it any further. They were quite arty and cultured which was a bit scary. Told me about all these amazing foreign films on at the festival. Managed to avoid telling them that I’m just hoping that a Director will see sence and bring out ‘Legally Blond 3′. The first two trully were classics!
Over 4 years I’ve been with my girlfriend Max and she still hasn’t dared to tell them I’m a Tory. She has to hide the papers whenever I’m in a photo.
81. The most worrying part is when they start to name some obscure movie from Korea and ask you if you saw it.
The next time try to tell them the last book you read is an Ann Widdecombe’s novel!
82 - 4 years! That’s pretty impressive Woody. Mind you that could lead to a few uncomfortable conversations if you become PM!
84. if he’ll become MP, he could end up on the Daily Mail’s fronpage:
“Shocking sex scandal inside at page 3:
Tory MP enjoy sexual encounters with the enemy!”
Max, if your girlfriend’s parents are on the hardleft, you could try with this too:
http://www.angusrobertson.com.au/products/detailed.asp?bookid=0413771962&db=au
65 Mark Senior Are you telling me Andrew Neil is a member of the Tory party? Great news. Halleluiah, sinners can be saved!
“Tory MP enjoy sexual encounters with the enemy!”
John Bercow went down that path, and look what happened to him….
By the way was in delightful Cambridge yesterday. Just wondering why it is now a labour/lib dem marginal rather than a lib dem/tory semi marginal like OXWAB. Where does the labour vote come from in a city like Cambridge? Are there a mass of council estates hidden away?
87- I didn’t knwo that about Bercow. Well, it does explain lots of things….
88. You start from the wrong assumption that only people who live in council estates vote labour.
65-I can understand that the Liberals & Labour don’t want devoltution (or lack of it for England) to become an issue but to dismiss (as a small vociferous section of the Conservative party) Andrew Neil’s comments about ‘Emails of complaints pouring in when politicians from Scotland pontificate on English issues’ on his Daily politics show on BBC2.
So the emails of complanits pouring into the BBC are also from ‘a small vociferous section of the Conservative party’, no one outside this small vociferous section in the Conservative party has a view on this issue?
And if they have these views then they really fit into an ultra right wing party and not a mainstream party,what a sweeping generalisation?I suppose that’s one way to try and marginalise the issue.
90 - The issue is already marginalised in the minds of the vast majority of the electorate . If you would go out and talk to real voters in the outside world you would find out how little importance they attach to this issue .
Emails of complaint flow into the BBC on lots of issues many of them of not great importance or relevance to most people . One of the disadvantages of Emails is the ease with which minor groups on the political fringe can spam there views out of all proportion to the support they have in the country at large .
The Conservative party , for the most part , remains a Unionist Party and would disappear into right wing oblivion if it followed your policies on this issue .
88. The smell the coffee booklet shows how you can’t judge by houses anymore.
91. I agree that this is a minor issue followed by a few fanatics. Although it is wrong in principle for laws to be made for one country by politcians from another, I don’t think it resonates enough with the mast majority of the electrate. Most laws are made by the unelected European commision anyway.
92.”Most laws are made by the unelected European commision anyway. ”
I don’t understand why nobody has ever seriously proposed to give the EU parliament more powers over the commission. Afterall the parliament is elected by voters, while the commission not.
Probably with the current system the national governments are more able to control the EU laws made (MEPs are usually a bit out of control and sometimes take different positions from their own national parties).
Talking about the EU commission, if Brown will become PM, what will be of Mandelson next time?
93. I think the government are happier for the commision to have control than the MEPs. Firstly, Labour don’t have that many MEPs. Secondly, It’s rumoured that the Labour MEPs are actually socialists which is now discouraged in new labour. It suits governments to have a commision with which it has no ties to lay the blame at rather than its wayward MEPs.
I expect Mandelson and Brown to kiss and make up at some point.
Even in OXWAB, the Tories are pretty weak in Oxford proper, with not a single seat in the city. The only potentially winnable wards left are the prosperous suburban north Oxford areas in Wolvercote and Summertown wards. University towns are becoming increasingly Scotland-like, with Conservatives performing well below their expected socio-economic reach.
94. yes, governments (not only the British one) are probaly happier with this system.
I’m not so sure that Brown and Mandelson will make up. I could see Brown to name another man(or woman) as British commissioner.
Labour and socialists (is the word no more banned?):
are we sure those people are in the same party of Tony Blair? http://www.l-r-c.org.uk/ (read the motions and the campaigns)
96 - yes, “socialists” is allowed. I haven’t made any changes myself but I assume the spam stopped and so it was taken off the filter.
Mark Senior: We are clearly very lucky to have you posting on this site as you know what the vast majority of people are thinking at any one time. However are you also able to predict the future? I only ask because very few ideas start out being the views of the “majority of ordinary people” and take a while to attract support. Once upon a time the Liberals/Liberal democrats understood that the reform of government was essential to deliver a better performing economy, reduce poverty and improve public services….part of that reform included massive devolution to regional government for england……the Lib dems never talk about these issues any more… their tactic now (adopted by many political groups) being to follow public opinion rather than lead it. I would have thought the lib dems would want to have something to say about the current constitutionasl mess on the grounds it will produce bad policies and poor government….but I guess its hard to put it on a focus….
98 - Shame about the sarcasm in your first sentence because you do actually make 1 or 2 valid points later on . It is true that ideas and policies can start off with little general public support . This is true of bad as well as good policies . Hitler started of with little public support in Germany and did achieve it but it did not make his policies any more correct .
I do not accept that Lib Dems have abandoned policies to slavishly follow public opinion . If that were true they would be supporting capital punishment , withdrawal from the EEC etc .
My own personal view is that massive devolotion to the English regions is not a panacea for a better economy reducing poverty et al but rather a diversion from the real solution which is a good national government enacting the right national policies to improve the welfare of the citizens of the whole of the United Kingdom .
The England Question Mark Senior Am I not a voter, nor the other people talking about this democratic deficit on this site? Are Andrew Neil and his correspondents not voters. Are the people blogging elsewhere about this not voters. Or are we all just loonies on the fringe? So mad we will forget all about this when another carnival comes to town.
Sitting under your comfortable carapace of certainty, is there not a possibility that you are so confirmed in your view that there is no swan that you ignore the growing signet?
And if you actively raised this issue in a way that encouraged discussion in groups you might find, as I have, that introducing the idea openly does rather shove the flood gates wide.
When I was a secondary modern lad (a long time ago) I was taught that I had to say we were British so we did not upset other folks (true!). This attitude made many people wary of discussing English nationalism. Is it racist? Is it fascist? Imperialist or plain nasty. Afer all everyone else in the British Isles seems to talk about the English doing such terrible things to the rest of these islands, never what we have done for these islands or what these islands have done to us: all open questions.
All these epithets for English nationalism have been suggested to me in the past. Your experience is probably the same. So its hardly surprising that there is reticence, as Andrew Neil remarks, but it is fast disappearing as the reality of the situation is increasingly understood. And as always, events, dear boy, may remove any reticence entirely.
91-So obviously Mark has got it right as he is the only person that speaks with real voters in the outside world and Andrew Neil is wrong.
100/101 - Andrew Neil and his correspondents and the bloggers on this and other sites including myself may be voters but we are not typical of the electorate as a whole . The vast majority of voters do not give English Natinalism a thought more than once in a blue moon and politics as a whole does not figure in their thoughts very much either , far less than how to pay the latest bill that has dropped through the door or whether Chelsea were lucky to have beaten Wigan and Aresenal both 1 by 1 - 0 .
88 - there are quite large areas of social housing in Cambridge (where a lot of the college staff live), places such as King’s Hedges. If you look at a map of the city, the old college bit is surrounded by a belt of green and then by C20th development of various sorts. Most students would never see these areas as their zone of operations would tend to be confined to the centre, partly by design (there’s no particular reason for them to go there unless they are Labour activists) and partly by the fact that most students are not allowed to keep a car.
New Zealand election. The thing about elections with a threshold for top up seats (in NZ you get top up seats if you either get 5% or win one constituency seat) is that the election is very dependent on whether the small parties happen to make it or not. That can be a bit of a fluke, e.g. if there are two small parties near the threshold on the left but three on the right, you’ll probably have the left two making it and a left-wing government.
There’s a centre party in NZ that’s allowed speculation as to which way it will go to change - resulting in a very quick shift in their support, with all the people backing one side suddenly leaving because the party would put the other side in power. All of which goes to show that really it should be clear which of the two main parties any particular minor party is backing. In effect the system enables you to choose between two big parties, and put pressure on them in whichever direction there’s a minor party for, e.g. green or anti-immigrant.
Mark Senior…well my sarcasm usually draws a response
I was interested by your response….as I am following the internal debate within the lds as closely as I can….if your views are typical of lds and lead to a change in policy (already being flagged by the leader) it will be interesting to see how the welsh lds respond. With such a huge concentration of wealth and power (ad now marginal seats!) in the se of england I cannot see how you can devise policies that benefit both the SE of england and wales(for example). With the economy in wales dying on its feet (average earning are £4k a year less than in England) some radical changes are needed but a government trying to govern the se of england (which has more MPs than Wales) and Wales will always …quite rightly…do what is best for the majority. The advantage with either massive devolution or independence is that Wales and/or parts of England can manage their own economy( within eu rules taking account of globalisation etc) to their own advantage without being an “add on” to somewhere else. The evidence is clear that the future lies with smaller countries who are better able to defend their national interests(as they are cleaer) and have greater social cohesion.
105 - does that mean separate North and South Wales Republics Mark?
105 - I would be very surprised if my views were anywhere near typical of Lib Dem members ( do not forget I am not a member ) .
I do regret that like some Conservatives on here who have been forecasting economic disaster every day for the last 8 years , you also are grossly overstating the economic problems in Wales which is certainly not dying on it’s feet . Yeas average earnings may be 4K a year less than in England but cost of living/housing etc are lower too .
Leaving aside that the prospects of the people of Wales voting for Independence in the forseeable future is nil , neither Wales or the regions of England are large enough and have a big enough independent infrastructure to be able to manage their area economy successfully . I see no evidence that any British government in the past has or in the future will govern solely to the benefit of South East England indeed to do so would be political suicide .
The United Kingdom has a whole is a small country and noone would benefit from it being subdivided further .
The above is not to say that some form of devolution to the regions should be completely ruled out if accompanied by scrapping of one of the existing tiers of local government but to suggest that Wales and these regions can be viable countries is self-delusion .
You and others will notice that I have not mentioned Scotland in this . Scotland could possibly meet the economic reqiurements to be a successful country economically in it’s own right but the vast majority of the people living there do not want to go down that road . Many of them are in fact English or Welsh and would not want to stay there should Scotland become independent from the rest of the UK .
I think the above clarifies at least my own position on devolution if not the Lib Dems .
107 - I broadly agree with you, Mark (although I am fairly confused about the opinions of the Scots, whose opinions towards independence seem to fluctuate wildly from survey to survey) – but I must take issue about “The United Kingdom is a small country.” Last time I checked, the United Kingdom had the 16th largest population in the world (we may have since been overtaken by one of the third world countries with high birthrates that were snapping at our ankles), with the 4th largest economy. We are globally much more significant than our detractors would often have us. (Conversely, I will concede that we aren’t nearly as significant as some would have it, but I have never actually met anyone who considers Britain that important.)
Of course, in terms of land area (possibly a less significant matter when discussing a country’s place in the world) we are less big, but even here we are around 76th or so in the world – not one of the leaders but easily in the top half.
Moreover, never let anyone tell you that we are ‘just a bunch of small islands off northwest Europe’ (unless by ‘we’ they mean the channel islands) – Great Britain is a very large island – the 8th largest in the world, and by some way the largest in Europe. Ireland is also pretty damn huge for an island – I think it is the 20th largest in the world.
None of this has much of a bearing on any of your arguments of course – but I can never resist the opportunity for geographic pedantry.
Mark…my apologies for thinking you were a Lib dem member. You are mistaken in some of your comments. A recent study …featured prominently in the western mail (sadly I dont have the link) demonstrated that Wales is now one of the most expensive areas to live in the uk. This is due to the very low average wage etc and rising costs of housing, increases in council tax due to rebanding increase in fuel costs which hit rural and smaller urban communities harder etc… you are also wrong to suggest Wales could not support itself as an independent nation …there are six countries in the eu smaller than Wales within a few years all of whom will have a gdp greater than wales. If they can do it…the Irish can do it why cant wee? Still I think we will have to agree to differ on this!
Tabman……Only in the sense that we would give greater powers to local government …and that there might be a case for bigger authorities in the North than at present
109 - I was picking up on your point about Social Cohesion and the famous differences between N and S Wales, to the extent that they’re like different countries
78, I should think the most working class Conservative seat is Gravesham (though I should think Gosport, Havant, Folkestone and Isle of Wight are quite similar in terms of social composition).
The richest Labour seat (if measured by income per head) would almost certainly be Hampstead, but if measured in terms of the economic status of its inhabitants, then it would be Battersea.
The richest
108 - I am happy to be corrected , Cookie , my mind was in terms of land area only and I accept your points on population and GDP . I still maintain that splitting into 5/6 or more regions/mini countries would soon have the GDP drifting down the league table .
109 - I may be a Lib Dem supporter but not a member . I would like a link to the article if you can find one . I find it very difficult to believe that housing costs in Wales are anything like as high as those in the South of England . As to the rebanding of houses leading to rises in council tax , I have argued exstensively that this is a fallacy . Rebanding per se has no impact on the overall council tax raised by a council but may of course raise the tax of upgraded houses whilst lowering those of unchanged or lower graded houses . I would concede that there may be councils that have used rebanding as a subterfuge to raise council tax and blame it on something other than their own management .
Where is your evidence that these smaller countries in the EU will have a greater GDP than Wales in a few ( how many ? ) years .
Independence may be the aim of yourself and Plaid but it is supported by a very small percentage of the people who live in Wales even smaller than the number of people who actually voted for you at the last GE . So yes we differ and no doubt will continue to do so but again that is one of the strengths of this site .
112 - “As to the rebanding of houses leading to rises in council tax , I have argued exstensively that this is a fallacy . ”
I don’t think this is right. The aim of the equalisation grants is in theory that all councils could charge the same Band D tax, isn’t it? OK, you would expect the bands to change when revaluation is done, but that will be done by some national average increase. So if the average band of houses in local authority 1 (London, say) rises while the average band of houses in authority 2 (rural Wales, for example) falls, average taxes would rise in authority 1. And this is entirely consistent with the aim of a property-based tax.
[112][113] All I know is that in Canada they manage to value each house annually for local taxation purposes, why this beyond the wit of the Inland Revenue I couldn’t possibly say…
113 - I do not think you are correct with what you say about equalisation , Book Value , if that were true then Council Tax for a house in Band D would be nearly the same whereever you live . Worthing Band D Council Tax is for example 1,242 Eastbourne 1,330 Cardiff 872 and if revalaution had put the house up to Band E 1,065 Seems the Welsh still get a good deal . ( Sorry my laptop is a US machine and does not have a pound sign .
Well, it’s a notional concept and not intended to prevent councils making choices about different levels of service and spending. Not that tax levels necessarily reflect service levels very well. But it does depend on the tax base of an authority and a rebanding would change the distribution of grants.
116 - Presumably a redistribution of grants could be done to leave all councils with the same tax take as before the rebanding exercise .
Here is a link:
http://www.local.dtlr.gov.uk/finance/ssa/0203/lgfrs/chap3.pdf
Probably no need to go into the maths, but the first paragraph sums it up well:
“grant is to be distributed so that if each receiving authority were to set its budget requirement at the level of its Standard Spending Assessment (“SSA”), or SSA plus Police Grant where appropriate, then all billing authorities could set broadly the same council tax, under section 30 of the 1992 Act, for dwellings listed in the same valuation band.”
[emphasis mine]
117 - it could, but it would be rather out of keeping with the principles of the council tax. And though I’m not entirely sure, I suspect it would require primary legislation to amend the 1992 Act as mentioned in what I cite above.
Off topic , I have finally managed to find 2003 Ward results for Glasgow Council . I am still missing Stoke 2004 results in England Denbighshire 2004 in Wales and the following Scottish Council results for 2003 :- Scottish Borders , North and South Lanarkshire , East Renfrewshire and Renfrewshire and Dunbartonshire East in Scotland . Any help appreciated .
118 - I understand this but the principle seems to have been clearly departed from . Wales has I can show even with revaluation to Band E has some 25% lower tax than the equivalent South of England Band D property and much lower if it is one of the 2/3rds of houses that remains in Band D . In Scotland the council tax rate seems higher than in England Dundee 1,527 for Band D althugh Band D in Scotland seems to cover a lower house value range than in England and Wales .
121 - true. I do agree that there is enough arbitrariness in the formulas for something of a fudge to be done. But I don’t think the south-east will get away without a shifting of the tax burden towards it - and any existing bias towards Wales or against Scotland is a separate issue from the revaluation.
Apparently in tomorrow’s Telegraph Kenneth Clarke says he was wrong to back the Euro and that the European constitution is dead. You have to wonder if he can make a U-Turn of those proportions why he didn’t do it a decade ago so he might have ended up leader.
123 Houndtang . I smell Havana cigars wafting over the nomination papers !!
123. yes, he said goodbye to the Euro:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1747272,00.html
123 - Houndtang, leading the party a decade ago would have been to put the final 9mm calibre bullet into the head of his ambitions to be Prime Minister. Not even JC could have led the Tories to victory in 1997. Clarke has played a shrewd, long game here.
Long live KC! With apologies to Flanders and Swan
This old man, dear old Ken,
Been a pol since God k