Olympic gaming
August 22nd, 2005What will the British political landscape look like in July 2012?
It’s easy for political gambling enthusiasts to get carried away and forget how tiny a market our hobby is compared to sports betting. For example, about £150,000 of betting on the Conservative leadership has gone through Betfair so far. That’s less than 5% of the trade on Sunday’s Chelsea–Arsenal game.
However, William Hill seems to be aiming at some crossover marketing, with a selection of markets themed around the 2012 Olympics in London.
Some are specific to the Games themselves – for example, Sir Steve Redgrave (pictured) is 4/1 favourite to light the Olympic flame at the opening ceremony. But most of the markets on offer enable punters to bet on what will be happening in other areas of national life when the Olympics open on 27th July 2012.
You can get 20/1 against Tony Blair still being Prime Minister then – by which time he would have to have won a fourth general election and would have spent over 15 years at the helm, longer than anyone since William Pitt the Younger, and the third longest term of all time. These odds are more generous than Ladbrokes’ now discontinued 16/1 against a fourth Blair term – though of course in that case you would still win if he retired in 2011, say.
If you think Blair will go before then, and take his party with him too, the odds on offer are 6/4 against a Conservative Prime Minister on the day of the opening ceremony, or 66/1 against a Liberal Democrat. This is largely a bet on the 2009 or 2010 General Election, where Conservative backers can get better odds of 1.75/1 against the Tories being the largest party. If you think a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition is possible, however, you may prefer the 6/4, which would pay off if Labour were the largest party but the PM a Conservative.
The winner of the June 2012 election for London Mayor will be rewarded with having the Olympics during his or her honeymoon period. The two candidates for whom William Hill is quoting odds are the Labour incumbent Ken Livingstone (50/1) and the Conservative peer, former MP and head of London’s bid for the Games, Lord Coe (33/1). Both of these prices seem generous. Livingstone, though divisive, works the media extremely well, he manages to retain considerable personal popularity and he is not too old to be entirely ruled out; he would be 66 at the time of the 2012 election. Coe, meanwhile, has the advantage of an impressive career outside politics – he would be the kind of candidate who had a good shot of breaking out of the Tories’ image problems. The question is whether he would want to return to partisan politics rather than continuing a popular and non-partisan role through to the end of the Olympics.
(Of course, there is another mayoral election before that, in 2008, which we’ll cover in another article shortly.)
The snag with all of these bets is that your money is tied up until 2012 and you cannot take profits early. You also need to consider the interest you would forego on your stake. You can bet on the pound remaining the national currency at the time of the Olympics – but at odds of 0.22/1, your return would hardly be better than from putting your stake in a savings account. This seven-year itch will probably keep most gamblers from any serious bets in these markets. But nevertheless it’s good to see the profile of political betting raised by tying it in with sporting events.
Philip Grant
Guest editor
Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.
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Coe as London Mayor certainly sounds a runner, he would be a strong contender if he wanted to run in 2008. Livingstone remains a master media spinner but 8 years is a long time & the longer he stays the shakier the coalition that elected him is.
God only knows about 2012 though.
Phil, any chance of that thread on next year’s locals?
Bullseye - the locals thread should appear later this week.
“Coe sounds like a runner” - I like what you’ve done there
Blair won’t be PM in 2012. The tories have probably strong chances to rule the country in 2012.
The Libdems will have a new leader and less seats than now.
Katy Clark (MP for Ayrshire North and Arran) will be the leading member of the awkward squad (many of the today’s rebels won’t be there in 2012: Short, Glenda, Marshall-Andrews,…).
John Bercow will be the leader of the tory version of the awkward squad.
Gwyneth Dunwoody will still be fighting the whips to be the transport committee chairwoman (how will she be?).
George Galloway will retire from elected politics by 2012, but he will still make media appearance (only to create controversy and raise the ratings). He’ll write at least a couple of books too.
David Blunkett will father a couple of new children in and there. I don’t dare to predict how many children Ruth Kelly will have in 2012.
Potted biog of Coe here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sebastian_Coe
Alomst certainly (to the extent that anyone can say this far out) the Tories’ best candidate for ‘08, although there might be an interesting field if it looked winnable - someone might like to have a go at Pippa Norris’s spreadsheet and post the popular vote by party in London last May?
4 - from memory the Londonwide popular vote in the GE was about Labour 1,100,000; Conservative 950,000: of course with a substantial Lib Dem vote to distribute in the second round.
But there do seem to be a substantial number of Livingstone voters who don’t normally vote Labour.
4. London results:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/region_3.stm
on the locals that bullseye is so keen on. i doubt if Lib Dems will hold lambeth or Southwark as upsurge of defections. Lord Coe good bet for mayor of London
Phil - can I salute your indefatigability in managing to find an excuse to put up a picture of a rower
Now - that would be a thread; MP oarsmen (and women). I’ll kick off with Olympic Silver Medalist Coxswain Colin Moynihan.
8 - I thought you’d like it, Steve.
I never knew Colin Moynihan had been an Olympic medallist.
[5][6] Thanks. (As usual I suggest going the long way round when there’s a direct route
- my Dad would be chuckling in his grave if only he hadn’t insisted on cremation.)
The main imponderable is the effect of turn-out: second preferences have split 11:10 Livingstone-Tory in both previous elections so the Tories would probably do better with a candidate who could pull out the suburban vote rather than one who might improve on that ratio.
ICM Guardian today reports continued improved ratings for Tony Blair (now net positive) and no significant change for the parties (38/31/22). The party landscape is basically becalmed because no visible party activity is happening.
I do think, though, that at present the LibDems have somewhat more cause for concern than the others. Both the other parties have fresh leaders in prospect and the polls suggest a modest Lib->Lab swing on the anti-Tory axis before that’s happened. Anecedotally, too, I found a certain amount of active anti-LibDem feeling in the by-election that they lost to Labour in Broxtowe a couple of weeks ago: in a town entirely represented by LibDems, quite a few voters said they’d either vote Labour or Tory but wouldn’t consider LibDems - not something I’ve often met before. It appeared to be all about perceived softness on crime and terrorism. The ICM poll also shows very strong support for most anti-terrorist policy proposals, including some not at present accepted by the Government, such as allowing the police 3 months’ detention without charge. 70% of LibDem voters said they were willing to sacrifice some civil liberties in order to improve security.
I don’t say this with much pleasure, since I don’t think it’s a bad thing to have someone challenging us on these issues. But it’s hard to see what the LibDem strategy is at the moment: they seem to be vaguely thinking of watering down their tax policies (which IMHO are not really the main problem) while drifting on with unchanged leadership and if anything a stronger line on libertarian issues than before. There is a niche libertarian vote which this will protect, but overall I think they’re in danger of going below 20% once the Tories have a new leader, and being squeezed further in a 2009 Brown-Davis (or whoever) battle.
Nick, if the Government did propose 3 months’ detention without charge, would you vote for it?
Blair doesn’t have to win a fourth term to be PM in 2012. There could be a public clamour for his return at a time of massive national crisis
50/1 on Livingstone seems like a massive price and very attractive pension plan to me.
11 - Taking a strong line on civil liberties is hardly likely to win friends in the weeks immediately after two very serious terrorist attacks. But have you considered that Kennedy may be playing a long game? Bear in mind that in the days and weeks after the UK and US invaded Iraq, support for the war was running at well above 50% with opposition well below 40%. Kennedy may well feel he has called it right before and can do it again. It is a risky strategy but it is certainly a strategy.
I actually feel slightly encouraged that you have found some people who would never vote Lib Dem, Nick. A problem in the past is that a lot of people haven’t had anything against the Lib Dems and haven’t had anything for them either. Now there are more people who characterise themselves as Lib Dems and more who characterise themselves as anti-Lib Dem. Clearly, you don’t want too many people hating you (as it appears we did in your council election!) but I’d be worried if nobody did.
14 - Yes, it seems an amazingly generous price, certainly for a flutter. Why such long odds? Has he made it known he will retire before then?
14, 16 - you can buy me a drink in 2012
I think the Coe price is pretty good as well. Backing both gives you a reasonable chance of success at cracking odds.
“Enter stage far Right” - According to the “Times” the right wing Cornerstone Group of Conservative MP’s is considering putting up a candidate in the leadership election . Apparently DD is not Euro sceptic enough and Liam Fox is a dangerous social liberal !!
I cannot confirm that if Edward Leigh or Bernard Jenkin decide not to stand that the Cornerstone Group will not dig up Ghengis Khan , although Khan’s policy of a united Europe under his benign rule may be a stumbling block .
http://www.timesonline.co.uk
Click Britain , scroll and click Full list of Articles and click 13th item “Enter stage right …”
Looking at the London results last May, I try to see where the 3 main parties went better and where worse (it could be useful to predict the locals elections). I left out Brent East becuase of the by-election.
Labour best results:
1) Kingstone and Subirton +4.4%
2) Southwark North +2%
3) Ealing Southall +1.3%
4) Carshalton & Wallington -1.2%
5) Sutton & Cheam -1.4%
Lab best results in already held seats:
1) Ealing Southall (Piara Khabra) +1.3% (in 2001 an independent stood and took more than 10%, so probably this affected the 2001 results and this year labour incrase)
2) Enfield North (Joan Ryan) -2.6%
3)Mitcham & Morden (Siobhain McDonagh) -4%
4)Camberwell & Peckham (Harriet Harman) -4.3%
5)Erith & Thamesmead (John Austin) -4.9%
Labour worse:
1) Poplar & Canning Town (Jim Fitzpatrick) -21.1%
2) East Ham (Stephen Timms) - 19.2%
3) West Ham (Lyn Brown) -18.7%
4) Bethnal Green (Oona King) -16.5%
5) Brent South (Dawn Butler) -14.5%
Tory best results:
1)Bexleyheath & Crayford (David Evennett) +6.4%
2) Romford (Andrew Rosindell) + 6.1%
3) Enfield Southgate (David Burrowes) +6%
4)Hammersmith & Fulham (Greg Hands) +5.6%
5)Feltham & Heston + 5.1%
Tory worse results:
1) Bethnal Green -10%
2) Barking -7.9%
3) West Ham -4.7%
4) East Ham - 3.5%
5) Hornsey & Wood Green -3%
Libdems best results:
1)Hornsey & Wood Green (Lynne Featherston) +17.6%
2)Ealing Southall +14.4%
3) Walthamstow +12.5%
4)Holborn & St Pancras + 11.3%
5) Islinghton North +10.9%
Libdems worse results:
1)Southwark North & Bermondsey (Simon Hughes) -9.9%
2) Kingston & Surbiton (Edward Davey) -9.1%
3)Carshalton & Wallington (Tom Brake) -4.7%
4)Bethnal Green -4.3%
5)Orpington -3.6%
18. They are just embarrsassing themselves. Leigh or Jenkin as party leader. I’m still laughing.
20 - Ah, they said that about IDS - but who’s laughing now?
21. True although IDS did have a bit of crediblity when he got the job. These guys just talk dangerous nonsense.
One person’s dangerous nonsense is another person’s common sense, woody.
11 Hi Nick ,
Yes support is still pretty much static in a Post Election honeymoon period and will remain so until something fairly dramatic happens ( yes I know the terrorist bombings were pretty dramatic but seem to have affected party support very little .
With the usual low turnout at your recent council byelection I would be surprised if anyone actually changed their vote from 1 party to another . I would suggest that the change in party share of the vote just represents differential turnout between this byeelection and the previous time the ward was fought .
18. Jack W, if they consider Liam Fox too socially liberal, I’m afraid of what their manifesto will look alike:
1) Ban all single mothers from the country and send them in Zimbabwe.
2) Ban Alan Duncan from the party (Little Hunky Dunky is protesting: “I’m not a single mother…. I think”)
3) Ban all gay people and send them to Iran (they could marry single mothers as a cover)
4) Divorced people should be kept in special areas of the country not to contaminate young innocent children.
5) A special purification of Brighton Pavilion is needed
Brazilian rentboys will protest because those new laws will cost them jobs (and will increase the unemployment rate). Some Labour MPs will back them (It’s not clear in what sense…)
Coe was a really poor Member of Parliament. Poor in the House of Commons, not very active in the constituency and lacking in political nous and gravitas. He was awful as an advisor to Hague. Full marks to him for his work on the Olympics bid, but I think that was more his bag. I think the idea of him becoming Mayor of London is hilarious!
book value at 12: I don’t know - I think it’s very unlikely to be proposed in that unqualified fashion (”yeah, lock ‘em up for 3 months if you want’), so it depends on the details. Charles Kennedy’s proposal to allow 1 month without trial and an extension dependent on a court order sounds a possibility (and incidentally shows that the LibDems aren’t unequivocally in the libertarian corner, contrary to my earlier posting).
James at 15: yes, there’s something in that - as with a marriage, indifference can be more deadly than resentment. And Mark Senior may well be right about differential turnout. All the same, would you say that there was any sense of positive direction about the LibDems at the moment? It’s part of my job to keep track of what the other parties are saying, and they don’t seem to be saying anything in particular except for the odd tactical press release on this and that.
26.” It’s part of my job to keep track of what the other parties are saying, and they don’t seem to be saying anything in particular except for the odd tactical press release on this and that. ”
well, to be fair with the Libdesm none of the main parties is saying something interesting at the moment.
Nick
I though The Observer made a good point about Labour a couple of weeks ago day. The initial response to the bombings was quite good, and then the govt went berserk on headline chasing. This seems bizarre. Perhaps it is becuase of home office involvement in misleading the public on the de Menezes shooting. Whatever, it is hard to see that it represents a strategy.
2012 Predictions :
Tabman : The new Conservative MP for Rushcliffe throws his knotted hankie in the ring for Tory leader after severing his ties to BAT - British American Tofu .
Andrea : His five year marriage to Helen Clarke ends in tears as Helen leaves Andrea for Gary Bushell and becomes the sixth member of The English Democrats .
Max : On finally finishing “The Unbearable Lightness of Being” , Max’s girlfriends parents denounce him as a dangerous Socialist after they defect to the Cornerstone group . Hearts lose the Champions League Final to Ross County 3-2 after extra time .
Woody : Is sacked as Edward Leigh’s campaign manager after proposing that the age of consent for heterosexuals be lowered to 35 !
book value : The editor of NuPolitical Betting.Com is knighted in the Tony Blair Birthday Honours List.
Rik W : The official biographer of Ted Heath describes the former PM as the greatest Conservative of the 20th century.
Mark Senior : Serving the 3rd year of a 12 year sentence for the theft of the Queens coin collection ! He stole the entire contents of the Royal Mint and Bank of England .
AH Matlock : The Lib Dem MP for Beaconsfield proposes “Winning Here” posters be made compulsory on all Grade II listed buildings in Buckinghamshire .
Printz : The PPS to the Heath Secretary Nick Palmer resigns after Saddam Hussein is refused a sex change operation on the NHS . He later becomes a multi millionaire selling dark rooms to members of the Cornerstone Group and Respect members .
lol Jack. Very good.
29. Good as always!
What will happen to me after Helen (that b*tch!) will leave me?
29 - are you trying to say I’ll have changed my spots by then?
Nick @ 11 & 26
Dumping a man who has been the most the most successful third party Leader for 60 years, so that we can have something “new” to say doesn’t strike me as the world’s brightest strategy.
I think Andrea is right, none of the party’s are saying much, the usual silly season & post-election lull has been dominated by the bombings & their aftermath. Things will start getting back to normal after the Tories elect their new leader.
Also the LibDems are starting a major policy review, which could prove a major milestone in deciding whether they stick with the strategy of concentrating their fire on the Tories or instead go for the jugular against Labour.
I think it’s quite likely that there will be a bit of a squeeze, pushing the LibDems under 20% when the Tories choose the new leader & again when Brown succeeds, but the underltying trend in support isboth up and consolidating.
26 - It is inevitable to some extent that after a general election the parties which lost (which in many ways at this particular election means all parties) have a period of introspection. It is no secret that - to put it at the crudest level - the Lib Dems are deciding whether it is (a) feasible and (b) desirable to make policy changes to appeal to soft Conservatives. The feasibility debate is whether they really can win marginal Tory seats without losing such momentum as we have against Labour. The desirability debate is essentially a philosophical one which depends on where individuals stand on the respective importance of the economic and social strands of liberalism.
It is not yet clear what the story of the next four or five years will be. Some would say it is about how you balance civil liberties with the increased level of security threat. If so, the Lib Dems have set a pretty positive direction for themselves for better or worse (to continue your marriage analogy). I am not convinced it will be the story though.
Re:26 Nick, with your political experience, you must know that the summer immediately after a general election is not the best time an opposition party to be making grand policy pronouncements.
If you are looking for positive direction, what is coming from the government at present? I’m not too bothered if the Lib Dems take a bit of a dip in the polls on civil liberties issues, there is a significant body of opinion which will be impressed, and in a few months, a host of other issues will be on the agenda, not least of which will be the continuing chaos in Iraq.
It’s too early to determine what will be the key issues by 2009/10, but the Lib Dem response to Blair’s anti-terrorist proposals in August 2005 is unlikely to be high on the agenda.
It could be that the economy will be an issue for the opposition parties in a way that it hasn’t been since 1992. In an age of globalisation, both opposition parties will need to think about economic policies which a different, viable and attractive. Pensions and the environment (global warming) could be higher up the agenda too.
No-one’s going to spout forth on these yet.
Richard Church
33 Tabman . You become the Roman Obramovich of West Bridgford and owner of Notts Forest !
32 Andrea . Your post Helen Clarke liason is with :
http://www.theregister.co.uk/media/485.gif
18 talking of Liam Fox, did anyone notice the resemblance to a Scottish shadow health secretary played by John Sessions in Absolute Power last week?
37. well, at least it’ll be a chaste liason. So no problems. For a moment I feared you would have paired me with Edwina Currie or Peter Mandelson.
Tony on holiday (people with a weak heart shouldn’t see it):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2005/08/22/uwax.jpg
26 - Nick , I think you are being a little impatient to see new policies and developements from the other parties at this stage . The Conservatives are preoccupied with their leadership election and obviously policy will depend on whom they elect as leader . The Lib Dems are I believe quietly carrying out an in depth review on policy and strategy part of which may come apparent at the party conference but in any case with 4 years to go before the next GE , there is no rush needed .
29 Additional prediction for 2012 . - Jack W becomes first person to be executed for treason for many years after leading a failed Jacobite coup against the new king Charles III . He went to the scaffold shouting ” Revenge for the ‘45 “
39. I’ve just realized it’s not the real Blair in that photo (I should remember to read picture caps). It’s only the Madame Tussauds reproduction. Thank God, I was already wondering what type of plastic surgery he had.
37 - Jack, by 2012 I will be needing to save my pennies (i) to stave of subsumation by the rising waters of the Trent, (ii) fretting over the public/private debate on the destination of my daughter’s secondary education and (iii) gloomilly facing the prospect in 8 years of my heir turning himself to four-wheeled transport.
Apropos of Nick’s comments re Civil Liberties, it strikes me that the Tories face a conundrum here. The likes of DD ahve been making noises against ID cards and detention, but both might prove popular (in the short term). IF they tack towards the government to protect this flank, as they did with Iraq, might that mean they again fail to reap longer-term benefit (and at the same time persuade the more liberal Tory voters that enough is enough)?
2012: following a rapid increase in world temperatures, entrepreneur Jack W opens a Jacobite Theme Park on the site of the decommissioned Dounreay Reactor in Caithness to cater for the sudden upturn in Italian visitors attracted by the Mediterannean climate. Publicity is provided from the office of an un-named Australian PR guru “well practiced in the art of disguising noxious emissions”, Mr W said.
“cater for the sudden upturn in Italian visitors attracted by the Mediterannean climate”
well, if in Britain it’s sunny today, the climate change is already happening. Here’s it’s raining.
44 - I was basing it on the premiss that Italy would be arid if Scotland was mediterannean. But its raining here too!
Why is this time of year called silly season?
because there are usually no major news stories and as a result the papers are full of “silly’ stories about nothing important - (cue the Tory leadership speculation)
So that’s why we’re talking about jacobite rebellions, every labour MP being blown up and events in 7 years time.
…like this site is only populated with serious debate for the rest of the year
43 Tabman . I’m introducing a few interesting rides for my Jacobite nuclear theme park !
http://www.w.3ar.com/i/1/536.jpg
47 Bullseye . Interestingly there’s not a peep even in the “Daily Telegraph” on the Tory leadership today !
45. so I should move to UK. My marriage with Helen Clark is looking more likely now.
48. “every labour MP being blown up”
if you want, we could discuss about the whole Royal Family being blown up and Blair offering Mandelson the title of Queen of England.
47. We need a sex scandal.
49 - Being serious for just a moment , I think one of the reasons for the success of this site compared to others of similar ilk ( What does ilk stand for by the way ? ) is the mix of serious and not so serious subjects discussed many of which have only a marginal relationship with politics .
40 Mark . At least I drew a decent crowd on the scaffold !
http://www.northumbrianjacobites.org.uk/images/35top.jpg
52 - no doubt Jack will be pleased to see it has an C18th Scots origin: http://www.yourdictionary.com/ahd/i/i0031800.html
52 - as a ringleader of unseriousness (well, perhaps a mere ring-shadow-cabinet-member since the arrival of Jack W), I can only agree with you wholeheartedly.
52 Mark. Ilk is a Scottish chiefly designation , a reduplication of the territorial and clan name - Hamish Kinkell of Kinkell becomes Hamish Kinkell of that Ilk . The title is recognized by the Court of Lord Lyon , the Queens representative in Scotland on such matters .
56 - Thanks Jack , Thought that was elk - LOL
55. Since Jack W’s arrival, Tabman start to link lots of sites too.
Book Value, you’re down in third position. You could risk to lose the bronze medal (to link this post to the main thread).
Btw, who is the man in the picture at the top of the thread? What type of sport does he play? (I know I should google it, but I’m a bit lazy at the moment).
58 - he is Sir Steve Redgrave, who won 5 consecutive Olympic gold medals for rowing from 1984-2000.
58 - but I can link them properly (when I can be bothered!).
I enjoy the non serious discussion. it’s just amazing how we end up discussing such bazirre events.
Interestingly (well, I think it’s interesting) if the entire Royal Family gets blown up, next in line to the throne is the speaker of the House of Commons - so in the event of some unusual catastrophe at Windsor Castle, it’ll be King Michael I of the house of Martin.
58, 59 - certainly the most consistently successful Olympian this country has produced, and now (belatedly) a sort of National Treasure.
You’d like watching rowing, Andrea. All those tall, toned muscular young bodies - and that’s just the women!
62. Really. How many members of the Royal Family would have to get blown up. Thousands of hangers on surely.
62. so if Dennis Skinner would be the speaker of the House, he could become king.
60. Tabman, you could teach me it (your good action of the day).
61. I’ve the feeling we’re the only people discussing some events!
Edward Leigh and Bernard Jenkin are having a tin bath surely? What next, Oberfuhrer Horst Von Nazi denounces the current leadership candidates as dangerous pinkos and throws his spiked helmet in the ring?
64 - there are 873 of them listed here for a start:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_succession_to_the_British_throne
Number 313 is Iain Liddell-Grainger (Conservative MP for Bridgwater).
The news that Edward Leigh is considering putting his hat into the ring for the Tory leadership race has sent ‘Anderson’ share prices rocketing. 25 years ago while serving as the GLC member for Richmond upon Thames Mr Leigh called for “a proper civil defence organisation, which he claims could save 16 million lives in a nuclear war. For Londoners worried about their chances of help after a nuclear attack, it would be better to buy a rabbit’s foot than rely on local authorities. The provision of shelters should be mandatory in all new buildings and government approved Anderson shelters should be used for home use.” Taken from the 25 years ago section of the Richmond and Twickenham Times.
59. Thanks. I’m not a big rowing fans.
63.”Andrea. All those tall, toned muscular young bodies - and that’s just the women! ”
but at least they’re more feminine than the women who usually take part to shot out in atheltics competitions. Some of them have probably mustaches too.
67. The chance of them all being blown up would appear to be very slim then.
66 Unfortunately the Member for Ostpreussen und Neder Pommern had to withdraw his candidature when it was pointed out to him that his moustache was far too similar to those sported on Canal Street.
69 - feminine they most certainly are, except perhaps some of the Romanians. Phil can teach you how to do links; unfortunatley if I do that I think it just disappears (he showed someone elase how to do it a couple of days ago).
Andrea-
<a href=”http://www.somewebsite.com”>text describing the link</a>
68 - Andrew, I’m not sure 3 foot of earth and some corrugated iron would do you that much good - the cartoon here illustrates the point nicely.
Nah yer German, ‘e knows how to build a shelter proper like don’t ‘e. Most of ‘em couldn’t even be demolished!
Was Anderson the last independent to serve in a cabinet? (Though he was Conservative in all but name.)
74 - Andrea, my first link also makes reference to Peter Mandelson’s grandfather.
71 Tabman . I think your link is HSH The Margrave of Gluck Blue Nun of the Rhine in Flames 2,345 in line to the throne .
Of course the Wikipedia lists only 900 or so of the descendants of the children of George II !! Just think if it included the Houses of Stuart , Tudor , York , Lancaster , Plantaganent …….. book value is 5,367,901 in line through the House of Tofu in 1156 !
73. Thanks Book Value.
Now I try to link something:
text describing the link
78 - well done (and you can make the description meaningful too).
She has a very Clare Short face in that photo - it’s her usual “I’m not happy about it but I told you so and I was right” look.
There are just under 5,000 people eligible to suceed to the British throne, the last one being (unless she has subsequently married and had children) Miss Karin Vogel (b.1973), who is descended from the royal family of Wurttemburg. She is the last in the line of people descended from the Electress Sophia.
The Act of Settlement does not provide any succession beyond that of the Electress Sophia’s heirs, so should all 5,000 people on the list drop dead the throne would be vacant. I’m not aware of any statue or convention that would pass the throne to the Speaker.
Basically, if it looked as though the 5,000 people were about to run out, Parliament would pass a law to put someone extra on it.
If they did all die simultaeneously then the country would be in a bit of a constitutional muddle, as you need a monarch in order to have Parliament pass a law to change the order of succession. I expect Parliament would appoint a new monarch (or a President or someone else with the monarch’s constitutional role) and then backdate the reign of the monarch to before when they appointed them in order that they had to power to do it in the first place. IIRC Henry VII did the same sort of thing.
79. I realized later that I should have the description of what is linked too. I’m a slow learner.
Look at her here:
text describing
the link
22 years ago
26 - spot on. Wasn’t Coe voted Worst MP of the Year? If so, however, what is this vote - is it official? Hmmm, maybe I was misconstruing a joke at the time…
30. Very amusing, even for non-clique users as myself. I’m somewhat confused by the Andrea part though; I thought Andrea was a woman, although this refers to “his”. Now I’m envisaging an Italian / Romanian man instead.
As a dangerous, socially liberal Tory, I certainly hope Leigh and Jenkin are having a tin bath / giraffe.
80 Anthony. The easy option would be to repeal the Act of Settlement and then the flood gates open as when the Elector of Hanover usurped the throne there were already 57 Stuarts with a prior claim and then multiply their descendants over nearly 300 years ! and then before them ……..
BV @ 75:
I think he was the joint last Independent MP to serve in the cabinet (P J Grigg was also a National MP in Churchill’s Caretaker cabinet, a former civil servant elected in a 1942 by-election).
Was Lord Alexander (Minister of Defence for part of Churchill’s 1951-55 Government) technically a Conservative? I’ve seen him classed as non-political.
Julian - I thought you’d all been culled! How far does your liberalism extend?
82 Julian . Andrea is an Italian man ! Pronounced An Dray a ?!?!
83 - Jack, basically what you’re saying is most of the population would be elligible. In which case why not have a ballot to dceide which one it would be rather than go to the bother of working out the order?
84 - I hadn’t thought about Lord Alexander. I’m not sure.
82. I’m a man. Here’s Andrea is mainly a male name.
Coe managed to lose his seat to Candy Atherton and that says it all!
Fear not Tabman, there are plenty of people who have already worked out the order, and King Francis II awaits.
26 - Although Coe lost his seat in 1997, by all accounts he had been a pretty good MP (albeit for just five years) and the swing in Falmouth and Cambourne was well below either the national or regional averages.
80 - 5,000 in line to the throne? That will be a logistical challenger and involve a very large wall come the revolution, but I daresay it will all be worth it.
James, you’d have to extradite a lot of them from Germany.
90 - right … so Jack (O’Bite) and his ilk want to replace one lot of Germans with another? Except in this case because of the Divine Right they get to do exactly what they want?
Rather strange that Prince Philip is only 490th in line to the throne!
94 - I am surprised the Queen decided to marry a relative who is decidedly less close than is conventional in royal circles.
92 - Thank goodness for the European arrest warrant. Yet another triumph for the EU.
64 & 67. Fascinating Royal Line of Succession. No 59 is my second cousin, once removed (I think).
Why do all these republics have such a dearth of prince, princesses, electors etc etc etc.?
Andrea - I apologise profusely. Like Ian Bell, I clearly need a settling in period.
Tabman, re: liberalism - not sure, on what scale does one measure it these days? At what point does it become dangerous?
91. In 1997 a former labourite stood against Atherton in protest against the all-women shortlist imposed. He took more than 3%. That’s probably way the swing was below average (and why Atherton had a big increased in her majority in 2001). And it’s difficult to comapre the regional swing Lab-Cons swings becuase Falmouth was the only Cornwall seat with a decent Labour vote.
99 - Julian, that rather depends upon which party you’re sitting in. You’ll either get shot at from the left or from the right
100 - True enough but notwithstanding the Labour split, Coe’s vote fell by a somewhat below average 8% despite a Referendum Party candidate taking a sizeable 6.5%. In any event, even as a Lib Dem who lived in the region at the time, I think the comment further up by whoever it was that he was a poor MP is rather unfair. He was viewed with suspicion at first (in 1992) as an incomer but rather grew on people on balance and was seen to put in plenty of effort.
99 - and talking of Ian Bell, we could rather do with this rain lasting until Thursday to help ensure play continues until Monday, otherwise all I aill be left with is a refund!
98. Because they were monarchies too. they coudln’t kill all those princes (well the French did it too during the Revolution….).
99. you were probably confused by my “admiration” (let’s call it in this way…)for Alan Duncan:
Hunky Dunky
(every occasion is ok to post a pic of AD)
I’m too young to be shot
104 at least the beeb know where to go for a replacement for Martin Shaw in Judge John Deed.
102. The fact that Candy Atherton just arrived from Islington to become a candidate probably helped the tories to have a better than avergae results.
the mytical Candy
105 - in which case you’re probably too young to be a Tory.
107 - perhaps she will return to Islington and stand for Mayor.
107 - Possibly, although you would have thought that the independent Labour candidate and a fairly credible Lib Dem challenger would be far more likely to benefit from Atherton’s arrival than Coe.
107 - The Fat Owl of the Remove.
102 - good post. Furthermore, Coe was relatively young at the time and seems to have attained more gravitas as the years pass. I’m tempted by the 50/1 on Ken, although the bookies don’t know about my plans to run for Mayor as a one-policy candidate proposing that the Thames should be filled with dolphins (slogan: Vote Julian - Everyone Loves a Dolphin).
Tabman - the Tories certainly didn’t object to my age when taking the £15 odd squid out of my bank account a couple of months ago. Rain is forecast for Thursday. Have they sold Monday tickets or is a queuing job again?
109. If only Chris Smith would have waited another 4 years before retiring, she could have been selected as the new candidate for Islington South in 2009 (and being defeated by the libdems a second time).
She could still try to convince Jeremy Corbyn to retire and fight Islington North next time. The Libdems should stay with this year candidate (a new version of Candy with brown hair http://www.laurawilloughby.org.uk/images/background2.jpg ), so one of Atherton’s gay assistants could accuse her to be homophobic another time and we’ll have a deja vu of the 2005 campaign.
110. I don’t know, but maybe the Libdems could have been busy to win from the tories other Cornwall seats.
I think that the results of tory MPs in 1997 have very little to do with being popular or not at local level. Probably many popular MPs were defeated too.
112 - how old are you?
According to the Notts CCC Website there are a limited number available for purchasing online, but I don’t know how up to date this is. I already have my Monday tickets, purchased this way last Tuesday. Good luck!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4173766.stm
Cook’s agent, Jim Devine, has confirmed is seeking teh nomination as the labour candidate in Livingston. Gaynor and Cook’s two sons are backing him. He was the preferred candidate by Brown too.
90 Anthony. And it wasn’t even me that posted the picture of the de jure sovereign King Francis II ….LOL !! all part of our subtle plan for the next rebellion !!
BTW Andrea how’s the Italian monarchy these days - Victor Emmanuel IV , prince of Naples , is a rather colourful chap !! - murder chages and anti-semitism !!
24
Very much doubt I’ll be able to blag a day off for that; maybe I’ll get lucky with the fifth test and blag my way into the Oval to see “Pigeon” get hammered for 30 off an over… or maybe not.
I reckon the tory supporters average age is probably the lowest of the 3 parties on here.
117 - that is young! You must be lowering the average age from 66 to 65 on your own
Next Monday is a Bank Holiday.
Last year I had a workplace disagreement with a certain Labour PC over this kind of thing (average age of Party supporters). Are there any accurate stats about it?
120 - I think that part of the problem is a large divergance between party supporters and party voters. I would suspect that a larger than average proportion of 18 to 30 year old Tory voters are also Tory activists. (If that makes sense…)
119. I’m 23 Tabman. This site is populated by young Tories. Frightening isn’t it.
122 woody . I thought woody662 meant either 66 years 2 months or the number of notches …….
122 - Woody, whilst you’re on here you’re not making any more little Tory activists
so I’m not too worried.
Of regular contributors there are more declared young Tories than others. Most of the Lib Dems seem to be in the 25-40 age bracket. Which probably goes back to Jon’s piece the other day about political shaping.
124 - oh god, I’m not even young any more now I’m over 25!
125 - on marketing survey’s they tend to use 25-34, which makes me even older
125/126 book value /Tabman . You think you’ve got problems !!
Jack W is 101 !!!!!!!!!!
127 - in binary, which is (IIRC) 5.
127. Keep using the moisturuser Jack.
129 woody . As I said on an earlier thread , moisturiser is for the lassies , us kilted warriors rub this variety of lard between the upper thighs to prevent chafing :
http://www.secret-oktober.com/bettieboo/bettieboo_lard_2.jpg
116. We allowed them to come back. They’re useful to fill gossips magazines pages.
Does anyone hear something from SNP concerning the Livigston by-election? When are they going to select their candidate?
Does anyone have the whole article written in “The Spectator” by Brian Binley, Peter Bone, David Burrows, Philip Davies, Robert Goodwill and Mark Harper?
I read parts of it. Are they a good example of what tories new MPs are?
They would make me support Blair enthusiasticly.
131. I answer my onw question about SNP’s selection in Livingston.
They have shortlisted 2 candidates and the vote will take place on Friday.
Hasn’t someone posted a couple of days ago the news of the Libdems having selected their candidate? According to the BBC websire they’ll select him/her on Thursday.
130 - the poor, poor young lady, having her image taken in vain like that by Jack.
133. So the tory taliban are right and UK has lost its decency.
Photos like that are the proof.
You’re guilty too as a member of the thinking that has created those licentiousness.
(no, it’s not a Queen Victoria’s speech).
It’s not that I don’t like the photo, Andrea, it’s just the thought of it between Jack’s 101-year-old thighs
133/134 book value/Andrea. I was hoping to get a rear view of the lady !! It’d bring a whole new meaning to the phrase “lard arse” !
135. Jack W is 101 years old, but he went to the same doctor of Cher and Joan Collins.
135-136. For the 6 MPs mentioned in my post @131, the only fact that we’re posting those things is probably a sign of the apocalypse.
135 book value . But there are thighs and thighs !!
http://www.kilts-ecossais.info/ecosse-histoire-kilt/fin_d_un_mythe.jpg
Shame about the shreddies !!
138. He looks like one of those female competitors in hammer throw from Bulgaria…..
137 Andrea . “… sign of the apocalypse ….. so I suppose that’s Edward Leigh on the extreme right !
http://www.bookofrevelation.net/ch6_pat_11_4%20horsemen_small.jpg
Re. 102, book value, I’ve always thought that Clare Short’s face resembles a throbbing haemorrhoid.
140. The horse has the same colour of Michael Fabricant’s hair.
139 Andrea . If you think that fine Highlander was a hammer thrower then this chap might be to**ing his caber !!
WARNING . Not for those of a nervious disposition or those suffering from an inferiority complex !!
http://www.clevelandbears.org/BluePlatesPastPics/half-pounder%20in%20a%20kilt%20jpeg.jpg
book value . Might you retreive a triple post of a few minutes ago !! it got spammed LOL.
37 - Jack W - “Notts Forest ” It’s Nottingham Forest (who play in the County)and Notts County (who play in the City).
That has just restored my faith in the spam filter.
143. Tories posters could die from an heart attack after opening that link.
One thing is sure: that man couldn’t have an affair with Alan Duncan. His “willy” is bigger that the whole Alan Duncan
143/146 book value. Well it’s certainly plenty of spam ….. spam spam spam wonderful spam !!! I’m certainly not showing that to Mrs Jack W !!
145 Vino . Apologies , I should have known , in the early 80’s I saw a match at County !! Wretched place then …. the toilets !!!! and the match was sh*te too.
147 Andrea “… whole Alan Duncan ” …… oh I’m tempted , so tempted !!
149. Jack, I’m not sure I can understand what you’re referring to. Shoul I think about “whole” without the W?
Maybe I know why Leigh is afraid that Fox is too socially liberal. Fox has been in relationship with a woman for years without being married. A big sin!
150 Andrea . Some things are best left …. and not even to the imagination !!
150 - but not Natalie Imbruglia.
Re. 145, by a similar irony, the Hillsborough Stadium in Sheffield is not in (as you might expect) Sheffield Hillsborough, but in Sheffield Brightside.
152. maybe Leigh thinks Fox is a sinful womanizer.
Thank God Edwina is no more in Parliament or she would be able to corrupt other new tory leadership hopefuls.
Sorry about discussing posts which were posted some time ago but due to work committments I rarely post in the day or indeed look at the site so by the time I’ve trawled through the posts every one has gone to bed,however,in regard to what my MP was saying about the result of the Broxtowe BC local by-election,which Labour won from the Lib Dems on the back of an increased tory vote,I do sense a lurch is occuring to the right at the moment due to the London bombs - it may not be big and could petter out but I’m not so sure.
139 - Andrea, here are some women rowers(NB - Steve Redgrave, centre, is 6 foot 5 inches, to give you some idea of scale!)
145 - and separated by little more than 200 yards or so of land and the River Trent.
156. Tabman, don’t you like this
hammer thrower
(she’s a woman)
156 Tabman . Is that the Brazilian Amazon Ladies Team !!
158 Andrea . I’d ask for a recount on that one !
160. How many recounts will you ask for this one?
She did the 100 hurdles.
153. Richard, this one
is for you
161 Andrea. Looks like she does ads for “Wilkinson Sword”
162. She would