Senator vs Senator in 2008?
August 26th, 2005The favourites on both sides are Washington insiders
There was a time, 40 years ago, when a career in the US Senate seemed a prerequisite for the Presidency. In 1960, 1964, 1968 and 1972, both major party candidates were serving or former Senators. But Richard Nixon’s 1972 defeat of George McGovern (the candidates are pictured in a not-quite-full-colour “coffee cup poll”) was the last time this happened. Since then, no serving or former Senator has been elected as President, though four have received major party nominations (Mondale, Dole, Gore and Kerry).
But right now, the betting markets on Tradesports – the most liquid exchange at this stage in the race – have Senators as frontrunners for both the Democratic and Republican nominations. On the Democrat side, the favourite is Hillary Clinton, Senator from New York, whose candidacy has been covered on this site several times: most recently here. She can be backed at a probability of 43.8% (odds of 1.28/1). For the Republicans, the two favourites are Senators John McCain (Arizona) and George Allen (Virginia) – seemingly the man with the momentum this week – are almost neck and neck. They can be backed at 18.0% (4.55/1) and 20.4% (3.90/1) respectively.
Since the 1960s, the tenor of American political campaigning has changed: ironically, shifted in part by two of those Senators who went for the White House – Nixon and Goldwater. A candidate who can run as a “Washington outsider” tends to get the edge over a Senator whose past positions and movements on every issue can be traced through the voting records. Since Nixon, every elected President except the elder Bush has been a former state governor. Although Allen served from 1994-1998 as Governor of Virginia (a state which forbids governors serving consecutive terms) before entering the Senate, the “insider” perception may still stick to him.
Punters should consider avoiding the current favourites and looking towards the governors’ mansions for betting value.
Philip Grant
Guest editor
Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.
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Where is Guilliani (is that spelt right) this days. I quite like him if only I could get over those supporting those muderous republicans. But then again it’s not as if I can vote.
The other feature of this election, which has been mentioned here before, is that neither the incumbent president (term expired) nor vice-president (ruled himself out - age and health) are candidates. I find Cheney’s position of interest. Suppose his health deteriorated (actually or expediently) and he quit - say next year or early 2007 - this would give Bush the opportunity to “anoint” a candidate by nominating him (presumably a male) to the Veepship.
If McCain runs then I think usually for the Republicans we’ll see a very competitive and potentially acrimonious primary fight between him and Allen.
Traditionally as in 1988, 1996 and 2000 the Republican Party (or GOP) has pretty much anointed a preferred candidate before the primaries and that candidates usually goes on to win with comparative ease, this was true of Bush snr. In 88, Bob Dole in 96 and W in 2000. With no vice president in the running things are more confused anyway, but assuming that McCain and Allen both run, that would produce two competitive popular candidates from different wings of the party.
McCain is a conservative maverick he’s pro-life and hawkish on the war, but he’s also a firm fiscal conservative and while he campaigned heavily for Bush in 2004, he has been critical of the Administration’s lack of fiscal discipline. In 2000 he came close to upsetting Bush in the early republican primaries, however with the weight of the Republican Establishment and the huge resources of the Bush camp saw off his more modestly resourced campaign.
As well as being popular with Republican fiscal conservatives and “Reagan-style” libertarian conservatives, McCain also has huge nation wide appeal, seen as moderate and bipartisan and strangely many democrats like him to, but most importantly he garners a great deal of support from Independents and moderates. And polls far in the lead of any potential Democratic rival in hypothetical Presidential match ups.
Allen on the other hand, like Bush in 2000, has a lot of backing from the GOP establishment from his time running the hugely successful Republican Campaign for the Senate in 2004 (which saw the party nearly sweep the board in the south). He unlike McCain represents the populist, stridently socially conservative, southern wing of the GOP. Like McCain he’s is affable and well liked by the Republican grassroots but unlike McCain he has little national profile and would not score as well amongst Moderates and Independents.
Both Allen and McCain would beat, baring a disaster, Liberal Democratic candidates such as Clinton, Kerry or Edwards by handy margins, but overall McCain would be the more competive nationwide.
As for Clinton, these polls reflect name recognition and she is unlikely to win the Democratic nomination, with little support within the party but with connections and cash she would be in contention but the likes of Governor Warner, Senator Bayh, Senator Feingold and potentially others are far better placed to scoop the nomination Clinton has the same chance at the nomination as Kerry or Edwards (namely no much).
Sorry i meant “unusually for the Republicans…”
The race seems genuinely very open - many Democrats remain interested but unconvinced about Hillary, and many Republicans seem to feel about McCain like many Tories about Ken Clarke - ‘yeah, he might win, but…’ Why is nobody talking about Jeb Bush any more, or are they?
Two minor by-elections last night - any news? We have another little one ourselves next month, again in LibDem fiefdom Stapleford. This time it’s a Town Council by-election in their safest (Stap SE) ward (something like 60% last time). The Tories have picked the same chap who did their hyperactive campaign in the neighbouring borough ward so will presumably be making another big effort to get themselves on the map there. We’ve picked a former mayor. I’m not sure who the LibDems have chosen. They’re campaigning on it being an disgusting that the election is being contested at all, since they let Labour fill two vacancies without a contest in the past - waste of taxpayers’ money, they say.
sorry should have said republicans as in IRA not republicans as in the GOP.
1 - Giulani is third favourite for the Republican nomination. Mike wrote about him here
3 - Ben, Allen seems to have moved up quite a bit in the betting: any particular reason that you know of?
I’m not sure about “handy margins”: against any plausible centre or centre-left Democrat I don’t think he’d win any more states than Bush did, with the possible exception of Pennsylvania.
For those of you who might not know Robin Cook’s former election agent has been selected as Labour’s candidate to fight the by-election caused by the former foreign secretary’s death.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4186140.stm
Sorry should of checked the previous topic dicussion as it has already been posted there
I agree with you on this Philip - governors not only are seen as ‘outside the Beltway’, they can also (hopefully) point to useful administrative achievements, and hopefully bring a state with them that might otherwise swing the other way.
Mark Warner, who has to stand down in Virginia in ‘06, and Bill Richardson (New Mexico, term ends in 07 but could stand again) are strong contenders for the Democrats. Both states went for Bush in 2004, but could easily go for a popular Democrat.
Either of those with a northern Democrat (Clinton or Obama?) as VP nominee could do very well.
Not sure about the Republicans. I saw Giuliani speak a few weeks ago, and although he naturally receives a lot of warmth and support across the political spectrum, he’s not a great public speaker - meanders, mumbles and doesn’t make his points well. There are two concerns for him for the Reps: health, and his liberalism on a lot of subjects. He might appeal strongly to voters who otherwise wouldn’t consider voting Republican, but he’d first have to get past the Republicans who wouldn’t vote for him in the primaries!
1 – S Penketh
As I’ve said before Giuliani with nothing more than his time as NYC mayor and being pro-choice, anti-2nd Amendment and pro-gay rights would bomb in the Republican primaries… his previous high numbers have largely been a factor of high name recognition.
Also calling Republicans “murderous” undermines your credibility some what IMHO.
5 – Nick
Jeb’s ruled himself out, sources seem to confirm, what was supposed for a long time, that the idea of a “Bush Dynasty” was just too much for him and he’d not be credible as a candidate… added to which he hasn’t ruled out a run in 2012 or 2016.
I’d also say, that the democrats I speak to either don’t trust Hillary (if their liberals) or thinks she’s too liberal or too much of a liability or both (if their pragmatic or moderate).
8 – Book Value
I’m not sure Allen was on ‘Meet the Press’ the other day as the pro-war voice against Republican Senator “Chuck” Hagel’s anti-war stance, he’s been doing the same for a while now, also he’s being mentioned more and more as “The Bush of 2008” as opposed to “the Reagan of 2008” which for many seems to be McCain.
As for his chances against Hillary, where Allen to be the candidate he’d take support from blue collar workers who simply dislike and distrust Hillary which would probably throw MI and PA to the GOP, McCain would do this and would also score highly with suburban moderates and even liberal meaning that states such as OR, ME and NH perhaps even NJ and WA could come into play.
9 - Conervative Supporter
Great news I heard the other day, the contest looks good for Labour, unless something awful happens or its run by the folks who ran the Leicester South by-election campaign, awful, awful literature and one hell of a muddled message.
12 - Ben, read post 6 as well as 1.
I should have included NH as a state likely to switch back to the GOP. But I’m not convinced even Hillary would do that much worse than Kerry, particularly as the Republican in 2008 won’t have incumbency. Still your scenario is plausible, I agree - what I should really have said was that I can’t see a landslide.
11 – James D
A Liberal Northern Senator with a comparatively inexperience, populist, southern governor like Warner would be a very very bad pick. Apart from the fact that Clinton would never allow herself to be the running mate for anyone.
A more likely and better pick would be a moderate or populist senator from the Midwest or South, such as Senator Blanche Lincoln or Senator Evan Bayh would fill in Warner’s “experience gap” and flesh out his moderate credentials.
A possible candidate with a liberal running mate on would be where an experienced moderate such as Bayh or Lincoln to win the nomination and have no trouble in cementing their support amongst moderate conservatives, moderates and independents but would need to hold on to the left of the democratic base in such a situation someone like Obama, who is likable (unlike Hillary) and appeals to Liberals (unlike Hillary) without alienating moderates (unlike Hillary) would be the perfect pick IMHO.
Ben
I qualified the remark by saying i meant Ira republicans not GOP, i support the GOP. Unless your stating the IRA are not murderers, remember when Mayor he spoke of the IRA as freedom fighters. I would appreciate you not trying to discredited my honour
13 - book value
Actually I agree, I don’t think any candidate is going to get less than 45% or more than 55% in 2008, indeed short of McCain running against Kucinich or Bayh against Santorum I don’t even see that happening.
I think Hillary would do worse than Kerry, but even doing slightly worse (say -2%) would swing MI and PA, and the fact that she would probably IMHO do much worse amongst blue collar workers would only compound that.
The Democrats’ could do a lot worse than Evan Bayh, but then again he is both a moderate and lacking in charisma, another might be Blanche Lincoln but she is unlikely to want to run, Mark Warner could run but he only has four years experience as a governor, Russ Feingold a maverick liberal is another possibility and would probably not have a negative impact on candidates further down the ticket as Hillary might and might well do better amongst blue collar workers… it might not even be impossible that Feingold could win, depending on “events”.
15 S penketh
Sorry about that, I though you where comming over all Micheal Moore
16 - agreed.
Actually, Minnesota and Wisconsin are tighter than Michigan aren’t they? Feingold would solve one of those problems, at least.
Ben no problems I realised it could be taken the wrong way when I posted it. I had images of me adding 20 stone being obnoxious and being a fat lazy arse intent on creating lazy jornalistic documentaries.
18 - book value
I agree about WI, indeed it looks like technical problems and fraud cost Bush WI in 2004… but lets keep that quite
MI is more socially liberal than the rest of the midwest, so i think we’d lose blue collar MI and PA and swing states like WI before ‘we’… darn it I’m becoming a “fellow traveler”
… anyway… before the Democrats lose MN.
But i think that Feingold would win WI on the “local boy” ticket with some ease, and i think he’d have the best chance of any “liberal” candidate at winning nationwide… I quite like the guy actually, he’s like a sensible version of Howard Dean
News from the Conservative front.
1. According to “The Gruntfuttock” David Cameron will not resign his £28K directorship of Urbium , the late-night bar business , despite the on going controversy over new drinking laws and the Conservative opposition to them. According to a Tory spokesman :
“There is no conflict of interest between his position on the board and his position as shadow education secretary …. Urbium is a responsible retailer ”
Outside of London Urbium has won all 37 applications for extensions it has applied for.
2. Some specualtion that the Tory grassroots remain angry at their disenfranchisement in voting for the Tory leadership , and the upcoming vote will not be of the North Korean variety . We’ll see !
3. Our Ken is spending the next few days away from his Rushcliffe constituency and at the nearby Trent Bridge Test match. I expect to see close ups of Tabman in close consultation with the old havana chomping heavyweight as the nearly ex Lib Dem bruiser flirts with the old enemy in preparation for his defection to the hush puppy and fedora tendency .
20 - I like Feingold too. Of course McCain-Feingold would be an interesting matchup (the two of them having collaborated on campaign financing restrictions)… it might be a bit lower in spending then previous campaigns.
19 - S penketh
”being obnoxious and being a fat lazy arse intent on creating lazy jornalistic documentaries.”
…so true, Fahrenheit 9/11 was bad enough as propaganda goes, but his attack on General Motors was patently not true… he’s become pretty much the Leftwing version of Ann Coulter.
Oh I know, hes so partisan as well, when he talked of starving republicans (GOP) of water wasn’t the nicest way to talk about your fellow man, especially your own countrymen
Jack - I suggest you get better sources.
Trent Bridge cricket ground is in Rushcliffe Constituency so Ken can’t be accused of dereliction of duty by attending the match (although the garden of his constituency home could do with some attention, I note). The adjacent Trent Bridge Inn used to be in Nottingham City (the city boundary extended over Trent Bridge and around the pub - something to do with the Musters Family which owned the land in West Bridgford and who were in favour of temperance - for many years the TBI was the only pub “in” Bridgford) but at some point after the War was relocated into Rushcliffe.
To add to the cross-party consensus, I would say that the only consolation for me of Kerry not winning in November was the knowledge that Michael Moore would not get to gloat about it.
Could I also add, in the interests of avoiding more Republican/Republican style confusion, that I mean the fat documentary maker and not the only marginally oversized Scottish Lib Dem MP?
Although it would have been quite amusing to see Moore continually complaining about a Kerry “betrayal”, which I reckon he would have started will before Inauguration Day.
And in case anyone wants more material Michael Moore to make them spit splenetically over their Friday lunch, I suggest this article might do the job.
26 - For some reason Michael Moore MP reminds me of a young David Davis MP.
Perhaps Tabman can tell us if MM has muscular liberal tendencies.
25 Tabman. My mistake , I ommited to put office after constituency. Ken will be there for the remaining days , so perhaps you might get an exclusive for pb.com as a junior unpaid correspondent , quite a coup for our ambitious new editor !
The North Wilts by-election was a real cliff-hanger.
Conservative 539 votes; Lib Dem 538 votes.
29 - well they both have the Ashdown 1,000-Yard Stare! Actually, I think the DD picture probably clears up the Syrup argument.
31 Sean . Is that a Con gain or hold ?
Looks like Flintoff is once again getting our irons out of the fire.
Jack, rumours that Ken has been seen visiting the Health Food Shop on Central Avenue are completely unfounded.
Jack W- A Con gain old chap.
34 Tabman. We gave Freddie a triple helping of Scotts Porage Oats this morning and he wanted more !!
35. S Penketh. Thanks.
5 - Nick, I’m not familiar with Stapleford, but what IYHO makes it susceptible to the Yellow Peril in the notoriously Liberalophobe East Midlands?
36 - is that the “Royal We”?
There’s a by election coming up in Stapenhill for the Burton on Trent council next week. The current labour councillor and assistant to the south derbyshire MP had to resign his position from a prison cell whilst being held on remand being accused of punching an 83 year old woman. Should be an interesting by election.
35 - Yes, although I believe it is a two member ward and the Conservatives topped the poll at the last locals (i.e. it was a by-election to replace the second councillor). I am not sure how swings are worked out in such circumstances - it may be a Tory gain on a swing to the Lib Dems.
37 Tabman. “The Royal We?”…..
http://www.luxury-loo-hire.com
40 - I see that it must be Friday afternoon already if we’ve degenerated that quickly…
How much porridge did you give Fredddie this morning? - any chance of both a ton and a 5-for in the same day
39 - Lyneham in North Wilts must be one of the most marginal seats in the country. Never mind the one vote landslide in the by-election, have a look at the last set of results from 2003. It’s a 2 seat ward:
Con 508
Lib Dem 443
Con 443
Lib Dem 400
Which means the Lib Dems must have taken the 2nd seat on the toss of a coin!
31/39 - Yes a Conservative gain but confusingly a swing to the Lib Dems from 2003 and the 2005 County council as I explained in another thread on here earlier in the week .
31/42 it must also be unusual to get a rise in the number of people voting between the full election and a by-election?
42 - Never has the phrase “every vote counts” actually been so true!
44 - Yes, but perhaps not surprising given the extreme marginality of the ward. Would love to see the Lib Dem bar chart here!
Hmm… this leads me to ask a random trivia question (to which I dont know the answer) - Obviously in local elections winning a seat on the toss of a coin has happened, but has an MP ever been elected on the toss of a coin, or are there different rules? Just thinking that in Winchester in there was a re-vote as it was so close, but not sure if anything else has been closer.
48 - not since 1918.
I believe the rules are the same though, and there would be a coin toss (or similar) if the situation arose.
41 Lennon. I think England will look to bat Oz out of the game , perhaps 500+ especially at the run rate of 4+ . So well past tea , bearing in mind play may continue to 6.30 this evening . BTW Freddie only had 3 ……… cauldrons of the fine Scottish product !
44 - Before Vino asks , I think again this is a byelection where almost certainly noone will have changed their votes , just a case of both parties getting out their core votes to a similar degree .
I can remember seeing a few similar very close results at successive local elections but not the actual details .
47 - Ilkeston in 1931 also had a majority of 2 but there have not been any deadheats in the 19/20th centuries .
47 - Lennon, the smallest ever majorities have both been 2; Oaten and one other.
Freddie’s on 94 and Geraint on 50, score 391; “that said” I wouldn’t put it past England to stage a mini-collapse
50 Mark. I wonder if Gerry Malone in his more reflective moments wishes he hadn’t petitioned against Mark Oatens 2 vote triumph in Winchester in 97 ! The subsequent by election made Oaten something of a local and Lib Dem hero. Although I always think Oaten has something of the Kenneth Baker slug about him .
48 - Without wanting to be pedantic, are ties not usually settled on the cut of a pack of cards. Control of Stirling Council has twice been decided this way (once in favour of the Tories once in favour of Labour). Similarly in 2003 South Ayrshire Council was won by Labour on the same basis and the Lib Dems gained a seat in Helensburgh in the same way. Maybe this is just how its done in Scotland of course.
50 - August 26.2005
Conservative 539
Liberal Democrats 538
Rejected Papers 4
Turnout 29.5
Majority 1
May 2003
Conservative 508,407
Liberal Democrats 443,400
Rejected Papers 4
Turnout 28%
As a matter of interest how do they calculate the swing?
Jack W, IIRC there was quite an amusing scene at the original Winchester Count in 1997, when Mark Oaten thought he’d lost by a handful of votes, and started screaming abuse at Richard Huggett, who’d won a few hundred votes as a “Literal Democrat”.
54 - you’re careful with your coins up there
55 - I thought you couldn’t get on at work, Vino.
58 - I didn’t say that Tabman, it was more on the lines of respect to my employer.
55 - I don’t think there is a generally accepted method for calculating swing . My method is to average the votes of both party candidates and divide by 2 to give the previous result but others may take the vote of the highest polling candidate . For interest I estimate the County Council vote in the ward was roughly Con 1,100 Lib 900 Lab 300 Ind 90 so there were still votes to be got out that could have changed the result .
57 - BV I would be careful about making such an offensive attack on a minority group. A Labour councillor, and slightly bizarre self-styled Father Christmas (!), in DC&T has been prosecuted for racially abusing a Welsh constituent who he referred to as ‘Boyo’. I feel a quick phonecall to Trevor Phillips may be in order!
61 - I saw that story in the Indy today. Personally I thought the councillor swearing and screaming at his constituent was a bit more shocking than calling him “boyo”.
What is the “self-styled Father Christmas” all about?
59 - it takes a while to stoke up the fire under the boiler to generate enough steam?
62 - He claims his house has the biggest display of Christmas Lights in the UK and he dresses up as Santa Clause. He says he might step down but the area (Coalburn) is rock solid Labour. IIRC they polled over 1000 votes to our 90! He did seem extrordinarily aggressive and as you say it seemed a lot worse than calling someone ‘boyo’.
Flintoff has his ton
64 - I wonder what a Santa Clause would entail?
Anyone have an opinion on the Lyneham swings?
55 - I wonder if it’s the same 4 people that had there papers rejected?
65 - And Tait has his wicket
Oh, and thanks to all for the answer to random trivia.
The other result of the night was a Conservative hold in Osterley, Hounslow. The Conservative lead rose from c.300 over Labour to nearly 500 on a reduced turnout.
A factor to consider:
The American people might wake up soon to the fact that the environment is an issue in 2008, that has been spun away and brushed under the carpet by Bush.
A court in California has allowed a coalition of environmental groups to sue the US government over global warming.
In his ruling, US District Judge Jeffrey White said the plaintiff’s “evidence is sufficient to demonstrate it is reasonably probable that emissions from projects supported by (government agencies) Opic and the Export-Import Bank will threaten plaintiffs’ concrete interests.”
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article308256.ece
64 - “He claims his house has the biggest display of Christmas Lights in the UK and he dresses up as Santa Clause.”
You couldn’t make it up!
69 - There was an article in the Indy last week about a trip by several senators to Alaska (including Clinton, probably a couple more Democrats, and the Republicans McCain, Graham and Collins) to see the effects of global warming. Encouragingly none of them seemed to be in denial.
71. Yes I saw that article Mr Book Value. It seems at least half of America is in total denial or ignorance of the devastation to the environment. My friends in America just wouldn’t agree that it is even a problem. If there is a major shift in perceptions that could add negatively to the Republican side. By the way I have enjoyed your articles.
72 - thanks. One more encouraging development is that some of the Christian Right are starting to express environmental concerns about the current state of “stewardship of the Earth”.
As a geologist don’t get me started on global warming, most of us believe it is following a natural pattern, shown by isotope readings of oxygen/ strotium and others in rocks and ice. going back 2 billion years, but that is a different story before i get shouted down
56 Sean. There’s a good account of the Winchester tussle in Brian Cathcart’s very readable “Were you up for Portillo”.
Essentially Oaten felt early in the campaign that he’d reduce Malone’s majority from a notional 9,000 to around 3,000. However toward polling day Oaten felt he’d be in with half a shout if the Tory share of the national poll was around 29%.
At the end of the first count Oaten was ahead by 290 and the returning officer ordered a recount, which saw Malone edge ahead by 22 votes. Huggett had polled 640 . Words were exchanged !! By this time it was 7.30am and a break was ordered until 2.00pm. At the end of the third count around 6.00pm Oaten was “winning here” by 2 votes - 26,100 to 26,098. Oaten then recounts :
“The High Sheriff decided to read the result to them from a balcony (overlooking Guildhall Square) , a crowd had been building all day in the knowledge that something extraordinary was going on. people outside thought I had lost….. but when the numbers were read out the place went beserk. They were cheering, they were roaring, they were crying. I made a speech thanking everybody, and Gerry Malone was gracious. He said one vote was enough, and I had won by two”
“One more encouraging development is that some of the Christian Right are starting to express environmental concerns about the current state of “stewardship of the Earth”
so are they interested in other things other than fight the licentiousness created by the liberal thinking?
Tabman, your OT posts has made me difficult to read the other interesting contributions like the young DD’s photo @29 (I don’t find them looking very similar, btw). It’s intolerable
Now you have to guess who this young girlis now
I think Oaten’s actual words were supposed to be: “I’ll f***ing have you, Huggett!”
77. That’s why I like the counts! I know it’s not a good thing to say, but seeing the faces of candidates and supporters while the voters are counted add pathos to the election night.
75. Jack, I’m still waiting for something about the St Alabans count, please…..
Turning in Jack W, I didn’t know our Guest Editor, Mr Grant, used to be the drummer in Blur:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v226/Righini/select_03_97_cover_f.jpg
Huggett’s greatest triumph was winning 10,000 votes in Devon & Cornwall Euro Constituency in 1994, as a Literal Democrat, which the Lib Dems lost by c.800.
77 observer. More outdoor garden implements ! Fancy Oaten offering to do Huggett’s flower beds.
Having said that, from my time in Ulster “I’ll forking have you ..” in a Belfast accent has an entirely different meaning . Does Oaten have Irish roots !!
74 - but Stuart, as a geologist you’ll also know that Geological Time is rather longer than the 200 or so years that the current warming phase has been underway for.
76 - Christina Ricci?
Wistfully, it would be nice to think that one day Mark Oaten would lose his seat. He is such a slug.
79 - I’d forgotten all about that lookalike, though one of my friends always used to say it in the era of the Battle Of The Bands (”Country House” vs “Roll With It”… how blessed we were ten years ago).
Jack W is probably finding a Charles Hawtrey picture as I write.
79. Sophia, please a little help for a foreign non Blur fan. Who’s the drummer?
82. That’s right! You won (I’m still deciding the prize….).
83. Sophia, but he has to lose by 2 votes.
Jack W: Perhaps Oaten had been taking lessons from Lemit Opik?
78 Andrea. The Mystery of the St Albans Count - A Novel of Jacobite Passion and Labour Pains by Dame Agatha Jack W of Kinkell and Remaindered Ardour.
79. Sophia. Excellent. Early picture though.
85 - The one on the left with ginger hair.
82 - Even if Gloabl Warming is accepted as fact, the questions are a) what effect will it have and b) what can we do about it?
Jiggered if I know the answer but I find that
by
Stephen B
August 26th, 2005 at 3:44 pm
Oops - the link for that last one was
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2005/06/13/ccpers13.xml
84 book value. Your wish …… book value draws the line over Andrea’s shocking behaviour !
http://www.quizquest.fsnet.co.uk/CharlesHawtrey.jpg
88. Will an Italian edition be available?
89. Thanks. The drummer looks a bit like Adam Price too. http://www.adamprice.org.uk/images/gallery/pencader-2.jpg
I could actually see BV as a plaid member of the Welsh Assembly.
92. Jack, I have the suspicion that before or later I’ll be banned for real for creating too much chaos!
94. Cymru Book Value. Plaid should trade him with Leanne Wood.
94 - stranger things have happened, though I think it might be easier to be selected for Veritas.
84 - ah yes, Oasis Soup (you get a roll with it).
94 Sophia. Well book value’s great Uncle Glyn was a Plaid candidate in 1959 !
http://www.llgc.org.uk/lc/Lluniau/Nia29_1s.jpg
Not sure we want to trade but we are trying to broaden our appeal…..
80 - And more to the point, the Lib Dems spent a huge amount of cash on an unsuccessful legal action on the Devon result. An MEP here or there is probably a bit irrelevant in the big scheme of things and the loser is now Torbay’s MP and is probably quite glad to have lost in the long run. Winchester on the other hand backfired - cost the Conservatives a lot of money on legal action (not specifically over Huggett but they wouldn’t have bothered were the majority larger) which was “successful” but which with hindsight it would have been better off losing.
So, in summary, Huggett caused the Lib Dems to lose a lot of money losing a case that with hindsight they may be glad to have lost and cost the Tories a lot of money winning a case that with hindsight they would probably rather have lost. It’s as simple as that.
83 - Fortunately for him the Conservatives in Winchester do not agree with you as over 1,500 voted Conservative in the County Elections and for him at the GE .
99 cymrumark . “.. but we are trying to broaden our appeal.” - An interesting version of not getting stuffed at the polls again !
99.”Not sure we want to trade but we are trying to broaden our appeal….. ”
Plaid have to accept the joy of free market: trading candidates is a moment of high politics!
Does BV know Welsh?
103 - “Does BV know Welsh?”
Sadly not. I had to use a website to translate my name for post 96, which I am sure turned out ungrammatically.
101 - I wonder whether it is because Oaten is seen as being on the right, because he is seen as a decent constituency MP, both or neither? A little puzzle which is no doubt troubling Lib Dem strategists. Similar stats in Cheltenham and North Norfolk this year but nowhere else to my knowledge - is that right, Mark?
100 James. The other outcome of the “Huggett” affair was that all parties realised that immitation candidates posed a threat to them all , and the subsequent legislation has largely and correctly ensured that such candidatures are a thing of the past.
104. I’ve not realized you were “llyfr gwrth” too. Now don’t tell me you’re wElShmAn too.
98. Why PC was wearing pants…. I thoughy Rhonda’s men don’t wear them!
107 - welSHMan and his massed hordes, surprisingly, are not me. I think they must all have gone on holiday simultaneously.
107.”Why PC was wearing pants…. I thoughy Rhonda’s men don’t wear them! ”
It should be “PC’s candidate” and” thought” not “thoghy”.
108. but BV, they’re all part of the same big family, a family very interested in politics
96 - We have enough problems on here with all Jack W’s alleged aliases without you starting BV
Marco L’anziano
It could be funny:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/tv_and_radio/4187888.stm
110. Mark Senior, perfect!
111 - Andrea , Thought for a moment when I read your link it said Benny Hill was going to play Blunkett
110 - Marcus Magna?
111 - the actor looks a lot like Blunkett. The Quinn affair is clearly his lucky break.
102 Jack we cant get anything past you….things are bad when we only have the same number of MPs in wales as the Tories
20 - Ben. I don’t know that Michigan is so much more socially liberal than the rest of the mid west. What it does have is a very large African American electorate centered around Detroit which votes Democratic and a well organised GOTV from the auto workers unions, including getting eelction day off as part of the last pay setttlement. The gay marriage ban passed fairly comfortably in Michigan.
144. It seems that the actor who’ll play Blunkett has had a long career:
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0384060/
114. Blunkett wants to go to court to try to stop this show.
What a loser he’s!
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/media/story/0,12123,1557194,00.html
From Théoden King to David Blunkett… he’s got quite a range
OT Geoff Boycott as un-PC as ever on Hayden LBW “A blind man would give that out” .. and he wasn’t talking about Blunkett and Quinn.
118 - I like the brave producer saying “I think in time David Blunkett will come to see the funny side of it.”
Hmmm: maybe.
118 Andrea. The show’s Producer will be thrilled with the publicity. Blunkett is a right tool , non garden varity, at times.
Oopps another Oz bites the dust …. 21-2
123 - If only Freddie had got them… I’d have been on for my ton and 5-for, and I only really said it in jest! :LOL:
115 - As long as you support Independence for Wales , you will have great difficulty broadening your appeal when the vast majority of Welsh voters are opposed to it .
124 Oopps another Oz bites the dust !!! 22-3
122. oh, yes, the show’s producer and the TV channel will love the publicity. If Blunkett really wants that people will stop to talk about the Quinn affair, he shouldn’t have been talked. Taking these actions only made the press to talk more about it.
This is most poor form - at this rate the game will be wrapped up tomorrow
124 Lennon. You might still be correct at this rate ….. 57-8 !!!
Its looking like they’ll have to do an India (follow on and score 600 odd) for me to get to see any play.
124/129/130. Who’s winning (who’s playing?)?
131 -for your education.
131 Andrea. The Hanovarians are batting and have lost their first 3 generals for 26 Jacobite troops ! and it’s only 1704 , wait till 1745 !!
132. When I’ll get my university degree, I’ll credit you for improving my education
Following your link , I noticed a “Matthew Hoggard’s secrets of swing” video. Is a video about Libdem’s campaign tactics?
133. I’ll wait till 1745, but I’ll wait until 1789 too (when you’ll be in France enjoying your holiday….)
Tabman we came out of the minice age towards the late mid 19th century. I do not understand what you mean by
as a geologist you’ll also know that Geological Time is rather longer than the 200 or so years that the current warming phase has been underway for.
As in the early middle ages Britain was 2 degrees warmer than now and grapes were grown by the romans for wine 200yrs ago up to Northumbria. Indeed according to the isotope records in British soil intill the mini ice (startt 1660’s) record that the British climate was hotter than it is now. Of course pollution does not help but the many geologist ,including all the proffesors and doctors who taught me believe it is natural, rather like an experimate over a huge macroscpoic scale.
My apoplgises at the lateness of this reply I have just arrived home.
125…..quite possibly but when we supported independence in 1999 we polled 29% of the vote ….when we dropped it in 2001 we then polled only 22% in 2003…I think its a red herring…as people know that independence(in whatever form) is years away and would be subject to a referendum…..Plaids problems in recent elections have mainly been organisational …..still we won another council seat in Caldicot last night which shows what can be done as Calidcot is hardly traditional territory for us…
136 cymrumark. Excellent result in Caldicot, Rutland . Are PC also standing candidates in the Uppingham Town Council elections ??
135 - Stuart, most geologists of my experience look at timescales much longer than the last 2000 years (which is more archaeology than geology). I thought originally you were refering to the Miocene Epoch (minice)!
137. Jack, Cummunicate Research found in a couple of pre-election polls a PC voter in the North West. So everything is possible.
surely you now of the cooling of the earth between the 1660’s and the 1870’s tabman.
I do look over timescales larger than 200yrs hence why I also referred to the current pattern that has been repeated many times over the past two billion years as is shown by the isotope record in sedimentary and igneous rocks
139 Andrea. yes there’s a cluster of taffs in Bolton and a number of Jacobites in Carlisle, Penrith, Kendal, Lancaster, Preston , Wigan, Manchester, Leek, Ashbourne and Derby !
Oopps again Oz:lol:
Ooh, a mini Oz revival - now less than 200 to avoid the follow-on! (Guessing we’re really confusing Andrea now
)
142. I thought the Oz were winning :/)
Are the “Oz” Australia, right?
143 Andrea . Oopps Oz again
99-5. The Hanovarians are losing !
137 Jack….think my spelling get worse
As my hometown is Leicester/Caerlear I avoid any comment on Rutland matters for fear of being denounced as an imperialist…..
145 Cymrumark. Good point. If you live in Uppingham, Stockerston is considered to be dangerously foreign, let alone those nasty Stalinists in Leicester !
60 - Mark Senior - agree with you,it’s very difficult to compare especially since the electorate has increased by some 200+since 2003 - depending on your point of view you can prove anything however a good result for the tories.
137/145. Every occasion is right to post a photo of the Honourable Member for Rutland (being a buffoon in this case).
BTW, Lord Fitt has died. That is a pity, since he displayed real courage and integrity throughout his political career.
149. It’s not a good summer in terms of politicians and deaths.
149 - yes: an admirable figure and a sad loss.
Indeed not. Some will be missed more than others.
The two great things about Lord Fitt were (a) his absolute contempt for political terrorism, and his personal bravery in standing up against intimidation, and (b) his ability to attract support from Protestants, because he was a fair-minded and hard-working MP. Unfortunately, as with Joe Hendron, both of those qualities eventually undermined his position among his own natural supporters.
Tabman at 37: Basically a Sheffield scenario. Traditional Labour town with, up to 1999, some very long-serving and no longer young councillors, divided opposition. Tories fade out, LibDems target with lots of energy and promises, and mop up the non-Labour vote. Their current problem is that they are now the incumbents with no dramatic achievements, and the Tories are making an effort again. Main borough elections are still 18 months away, though, and to be honest the Town Council by-election is unlikely to excite huge fervour.
148 - Andrea, I had a double dose of Alan Duncan this evening; firstly he popped up on the local news, and secondly I got to see the piece on Newsnight about the Tory Leadership election which I had accidentally taped. You should consider doing a Masters at Nottingham or Leicester, or even a research post
153 - Nick, thanks for the analysis. So there are glimpses of gold in the stream!
154- Tabman, I think I saw the Newsnight’s piece too. Was it the one where at the beggining Dinky Duncan was in his kitchen preparing some toasts? Then he went out and at one point they showed shacking something in a bar with 2 (male waiters). He was enjoying it and he even said something like “I like it”. For a moment I had the doubt it was turning into a porno!
156 - “For a moment I had the doubt it was turning into a porno!”
It’s that dramatic, thrusting Newsnight theme music. It gets confusing.
Andrea, it begged the question as to whom he was preparing breakfast for, and it appeared to be more than one person. Makes a change from “How do you like your eggs in the morning?” “Unfertilised, please”.
157- Between the music and the “I like it”, it was very confusing.
158. ” it begged the question as to whom he was preparing breakfast for, and it appeared to be more than one person”
why are you so malicious? He was only preparing breakfast for a dozen of young beautiful young men very interested in….the tory party.
159 Talking of which, where’s the McLaird of Hemel Hempstead this evening? Don’t tell me he’s actually got some work to do?
I think he’s filming a Newsnight piece about the Jacobite party leadership.
160. Why did you linked that question to my previous post? Is McLaird of Hemel Hempstead a beautiful young men very interested in the tory party?
161 so Kirsty is one of his lunchtime partners? Do you think he has a holiday home?
162 - it was the accusation on maliciousness
163. Tabman, the big question is not why he’s not here, but we’re here on Friday night!
164 - Andrea, I can deflect protestations of extreme sadness by pointing out that I can’t get out on a Friday, having two young children to look after
You, however, are young, free and presumably single (?).
165 - If Andrea isn’t single then his boyfriend is a pb.com widower
My excuse is that I am writing tomorrow’s article.
166 - he’s pining for Diddy Dunc … who is now gracing my screen supporting a reduction of flights from EMA, together with Austin Healey (!).
165. Tabman, my excuse is that I should wake up early tomorrow.
I forgot you’re a