Saturday markets update, 27th August 2005
August 27th, 2005New, moving and interesting markets this week
In last week’s markets update, we commented that the fixed odds betting on the German general election predicted that Angela Merkel was almost certain to become Chancellor after the 18th September election (which has now been formally authorised by the Constitutional Court). This is still the case, with Merkel 1/16 to become Chancellor, and the CDU–CSU 1/33 to be the largest party in the Bundestag. However, Cantor Spreadfair has added interest by creating a spread betting market on the parties’ vote shares. The market is very new and no bids or offers have yet been posted – Spreadfair is a betting exchange on which your bet is against another punter. A guide to the likely prices is the latest polls collated on the Umfragen site. These have the CDU–CSU on around 42%, the SPD about 28%, with the Greens and FDP both around 8%. Though these numbers have been almost rock steady for the last week, it’s hard to see there being no movement at all between now and the election; and knowledgeable watchers of German politics may have a view on which parties are over- and underestimated by opinion pollsters.
Spreadfair has also indicated that a spread market on the 11th September general election in Japan will be coming very soon.
Another new market is Paddy Power’s on the 2007 French presidential election. The 5/4 favourite is Minister of the Interior Nicolas Sarkozy of the Gaullist UMP party. Second favourite at 7/2 is the Socialist François Hollande. With this market, your money is tied up for the two years until the election – during which time there are likely to be plenty of twists and turns in the story. Gamblers interested in this election would probably prefer to have a betting exchange to trade in and out of positions.
On Thursday we saw that the betting odds on the New Zealand general election were moving towards Labour. This movement has continued on Centrebet, with Labour now at 7/25 and National at 9/4. Betfair has better odds if you are backing Labour, but not as good if your money is going on National.
Friday’s article covered the Tradesports markets on the US party nominations for the 2008 Presidential elections. The Democratic favourite, still by a long way, is Hillary Clinton at 42.9% (1.33/1). On the Republican side, the race is much closer, with George Allen at 20.2% (3.95/1), John McCain at 18.0% (4.56/1) and Rudy Giuliani at 14.9% (5.71/1). Better value might be found looking further down the list for state governors, whose record in getting to the White House over the last 30 years is better than that of Senators or mayors.
Returning home to the UK, the market attracting most interest is on the Conservative leadership. The clear favourite is still Shadow Home Secretary David Davis at 0.73/1. After former Chancellor Kenneth Clarke’s statement in which he described the euro as a failure – so far, his odds have shortened slightly to 7.8/1. Shadow Education Secretary David Cameron remains second-placed at 4.3/1.
A new market, which appeared online just after Tuesday’s article here, is on the next Labour deputy leader. Paddy Power gives the edge here to David Blunkett (7/2), followed by Jack Straw (4/1) and Charles Clarke (9/2). All three ministers are regarded as Blairites; an alternative betting strategy would be to look for candidates who could balance a Gordon Brown-led ticket in a different way – though perhaps not as “different” as 100/1 outsider George Galloway.
If you are opening a Spreadfair account, it would be appreciated if you followed the link in this article or on the right-hand sidebar. This pays politicalbetting.com a small commission which goes towards the costs of running the site. Many thanks.
Philip Grant
Guest editor
Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.
MessageSpace Advertising
I’ve just been watching the news story about Labours 40% pension tax relief on scond homes. So in an already over inflated market, GBs treasury want to encourage further second house purchases. How does this square with Prescotts concern about house prices and first time buyers. Yet another example of Labour pulling away from its roots.
O/T: I don’t usually do very long posts, but as things are pretty quiet I thought some might be interested in the account of the election campaign that I posted to my email list yesterday. Incidentally, I now realise I mis-remembered the ‘gloomy opinion poll’ - what depressed me was the Guardian piece about Broxtowe where the reporter had failed to find a single Labour voter!
We are a mostly friendly crowd in Broxtowe politics and since the May
election I’ve been chatting informally to people in all parties about
what happened. I thought it might amuse some of you to here the behind-
the-scenes story. Obviously some of this is second-hand, but it’s as
accurate as I can make it.
Broxtowe always used to be Conservative up to 1997, usually quite
safely so. When I won in 1997, it came as a surprise to both the
national Tory and Labour parties - I’d been told to do my best to keep
the Tories busy, but it wasn’t actually expected that we’d win. The
Tory MP (Sir Jim Lester) and I privately agreed not to attack each
other and let the electorate do what it thought best.
In 2001, it was the other way round: the national parties reckoned
that Labour would hold the seat, and the campaign was relatively low-
key and cleanly-fought.
Around 2003, though, the Tories decided on an ambitious strategy to
take over 100 seats, and targeted Broxtowe as one of them. They
selected a keen Central Office staff member, Michael Howard’s press
officer, and allocated considerable funding to the seat. Because I’m
opposed to fox-hunting, members of the Countryside Alliance could also
be counted on for some help, and, together with Gedling, Broxtowe was
targeted as the key target for Conservatives from the whole area.
A perceived problem was that I was thought to have a significant
personal vote, and there was a good deal of thought given to how to
tackle that. I met my new opponent, who was affable but said in
parting “I’ll be attacking you on things where I think you’re
vulnerable, and no doubt you’ll do the same”. He wasn’t kidding.
Shortly afterwards, I found myself on the front page of the Mail on
Sunday, attacking me for a skit on the Taliban (I’d criticised a
racist joke and they said this showed I was a hypocrite), and other
attacks followed in the Daily Express, where my opponent said my
behaviour over tuition fees was ’shameful’, and the Evening Post,
where he accused me of not keeping people properly informed.
All this was fairly unpleasant, but the campaign overreached itself
when an Evening Post letter over the signature of a prominent local
Conservative councillor attacked me in vehement terms. I reported what
it said neutrally to this email list, and the backlash was staggering.
Dozens of letters poured into the Post objecting to what he’d said,
and a number were published. Serious recriminations reportedly ensued
among senior Broxtowe Conservatives, and the campaign was paralysed
for months before resuming in much less aggressive terms in autumn
2004.
Meanwhile, though, I was having real difficulty in getting any sort
of re-election effort going at all. Party membership was at a low ebb
for all the familiar reasons (particularly Iraq), and many people
still thought the seat was safe anyway. The national party weighed in
with a number of coordinated letter campaigns, but I struggled to
match these to our local positive approach. At least one was in
retrospect an embarassing mistake. To counter the hostile press, there
was a national Labour campaign in which MPs would lead people in
saying why they were proud of their community. Now this may have
worked all right in, say, Luton, where people identify with the town,
but it was frankly silly to go round Beeston or Kimberley asking
people why they were ‘proud of Broxtowe’, since few people think of
themselves primarily as Broxtowians. I acquired a stack of rude
letters telling me that the writers weren’t a bit proud, look at the
graffiti on their street, and we hastily buried the campaign. We were
also baffled by the Tory tactics: why had they suddenly fallen silent?
Over on the LibDem side, a strategic decision was made to focus on
County seats this time. Through relentless targeting, they hoped to
gain three, as indeed they did, and the Parliamentary campaign would
be downplayed by comparison, with no posters and only limited
leafleting. One candidate even told voters that it was fine to vote
LibDem locally and Labour at the General Election, not something I’ve
ever seen a candidate explicitly do before.
Meanwhile, local Greens told me that they probably wouldn’t stand
against me because of my environmental interest, unless the national
party asked them to, but in the end they did, and fought a
strictly ‘educational’ campaign on global warming. More candidates
entered the fray: a former Labour candidate stood as an independent,
and both Veritas (with their deputy leader) and UKIP threw their hats
into the ring. The Veritas candidate was much the more practiced of
the two anti-EU candidates, but he appeared to lose interest halfway
through, and the dogged UKIP candidate was justly rewarded by pipping
him at the post when the results came in.
As the election approached, I had a personal low point. We’d had an
all-night debate as the Opposition parties tried to block the
Government’s proposed laws for detaining terror suspects without
trial, and I got back to the constituency exhausted, to open the paper
and find a gloomy opinion poll. I was due to join a Labour Rose
newspaper distribution outside Kimberley Sainsbury, and discovered
that nobody else had turned up. The weather was freezing. I dished out
the copies sombrely, got ticked off by two voters for something or
other, and tottered off gloomily to bed. Pooh.
Things got better. My campaign manager, Brian Pollard, was proving
as good as the legendarily efficient David Jenkins, who had run the
previous two elections (and was still my agent this time): the
leaflets and election address all came together smoothly, and members
turned out in force for a mass-labelling operation. An appeal to this
email list produced no fewer than 45 volunteers, which with the now
increasingly active members solved the problem of getting all the
material out.
It rapidly became clear that there were going to be two problems.
In middle-class areas like Beeston West, resentment over Iraq remained
high, and in some working-class estates, notably in Chilwell, the Tory
hard line on immigration was getting real interest. If we lost ground
in both areas, the seat would go Tory. Since I supported the war and
I’m more liberal than my party on immigration, I couldn’t offer any
real counter on either issue except to fight my corner, and I put out
a leaflet arguing fiercely for a moderate asylum policy. Many wavering
Labour/Libdem voters liked this, and also my heavy involvement in the
Make Poverty History campaign, and the middle-class vote in particular
started to come back.
A week before the election, it was starting to look very good. A
huge Tory poster effort (I counted 14 separate billboards at one
point) had actually alienated many wavering voters (’no, we’re not
thinking what they’re thinking’), though I didn’t think Labour’s
posters were great either. Returning to the former council estates, I
found working-class voters generally swinging back: ‘I still think
you’re too soft on asylum but I trust you on health and education and
that matters more’, as one said frankly.
But similar trends nationally were producing a large Labour lead,
and that was doing us no good at all. ‘I’d vote for you if you needed
it, but you don’t', as one Lib/Lab waverer said crisply, and I
couldn’t persuade him otherwise. Lots of people didn’t actually want a
Tory MP, let alone a Tory government, but they also didn’t want to let
Labour feel too smug. They tried to fine-tune this according to the
polls, and in the final days I could feel our vote gently slipping
back. Meanwhile, the Tory organisation went to full throttle, with
deluges of direct mail, phone canvassing and a final round of posters.
In the event, though, the Conservative vote hardly rose, by just
half a per cent, and the LibDem vote also increased only slightly. But
Labour’s dropped by enough to bring the margin to just 4%, one of the
closest Broxtowe results ever. Too close for comfort, but then that
was exactly what many voters wanted: a Labour win but not a
comfortable one.
I’ve made it sound a bit masochistic, perhaps, but actually it was
with rare nasty moments an enjoyable campaign. Once the Tories had
pulled back on the personal stuff, they fought hard and cleanly, and
it was nice to feel that I was in a close race where a personal effort
could really make a difference. In the final month, I lived and
breathed the campaign for 16 hours a day, 7 days a week. Work like mad
and have a happy ending - an experience no life should be without,
isn’t it?
Many thanks, Nick.
2 - Thanks Nick for an interesting account . It is a shame that it is not quite truthful as according to all the Conservative posters on here they never fight spiteful and unpleasant campaigns ( apart from Cheadle of course ) LOL
I can recall 1 or 2 instances where prominent Labour councillors down South have quietly encouraged supporters to vote Lib Dem in some parliamentary elections .
2. Nick, looking at your website, I remember to have seen a newsletter (or something like this) about the anti-war protest voters to have costed Labour an election in the past. Since if I had been a UK resident, I would have been one of those voters you had to convince to stay with Labour, I would like to post a comment about that piece (maybe you’re interested). Now I can’t open it on your website anymore, but I remember that the first 2/3 of it were very good and they convinced me that to stay with Labour was the right thing, but I remember I found the last sentence very irratating and it would have made me switch to the Greens or Libdems.
Andrea at 5: intriguing - not sure which one it was, so hard to pin down the annoying comment. I was surprised how the Iraq issue actually increased in prominence during the campaign - in the run-up before the final weeks, voters hardly mentioned it, and none of the local candidates made much of it (the Green candidate didn’t mention it at all), but partly due to some events during the campaign period it did become a significant factor in the end. Although the Broxtowe LibDem vote only rose 1.5%, in the circumstances (closer election, good Lab-Lib relations locally, and little Lib effort at GE level) a squeeze would normally have been quite likely. There was a steady trickle of people saying they’d vote tactically for me, but a larger trickle who either believed I was safe and didn’t need it, or who couldn’t swallow the war.
The interesting question is whether now the seat is indisputably marginal, there will be a squeeze next time. Too early to say.
4- there were certainly Labour PPCs quite happy for Labour voters to vote Lib Dem in close LD/Con marginals- in a nearby seat to me I know this was the case.
Does anyone remember the Crick Newsnight piece on David Davis’s seat, and the Labour candidate saying being as pro-Lib Dem as he could on TV without getting in trouble.
6. I think it should be the one titled “Year the anti-war vote cost Labour its third term”. It’s still on Broxtowe Labour webiste, but I can’t open it now (it gives me a white page).
I think now Broxtowe is indisputably marginal. This year the problem is that it was more a semi-marginal than a marginal.
Btw, Gorgeous George is going to the US next month for an anti-war speaking tour with Jane Fonda. He’s writing a new book too: “Mr Galloway Goes To Washington”
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article308466.ece
It seems he’s doing enough money to retire next time.
It does seem as if the next election might be very tight for you, Nick: even if mothing on the scale or Iraq happens, and you can enetgise a few more anti-Tories into voting for you, a small but steady trickle of voters moving Conservative on issues like tax or immigration is almost inevitable, especially if the Tory PPC is selected early and spends some time building up a local base. The LD vote didn’t rise that much, but it might prove difficult to squeeze.
4 - Denis MacShane actually went as far as to publicly encourage Labour voters to vote LD in Folkestone and Hythe in the middle of the campaign, which was indiscreet even by his standards.
9. After 12 years it’s very likely that voters will start to look in some other directions, no matter what the labour’s government will do. The biggest problem is that they couldn’t lose many seats in 2009. To have lost so many seats this time could be proven crucial in their chances to win the next election too.
As memories of the tory government fade, the Lib Dem vote in Tory/Labour marginals will become more difficult to squeeze on a simple ‘keep the tories out’ message. Before 1992, the Liberal vote used to divide evenly between the other parties, we could return to that.
In seats like Broxtowe, where the Lib Dems have a significant local presence, it means Labour and the Tories will have to play for the Lib Dem vote on the basis of commom policies rather than just ‘keep the other lot out’.
The problem for the Conservatives is breaking the Lab/LD bloc. It’s quite possible that the vote split in this bloc could change in a way that could give the Tories another 50 seats, say (including Broxtowe), but until inroads are made into that bloc, then we’ll have, not a Conservative government, but a Lab-LD coalition in a hung parliament (even if the Tories are the largest party) and PR.
But, as has been said on this site before, breaking into the Lab-LD bloc is not easily. Wooing the more populist voters on areas like immigration may play well in some areas, but is unlikely to reap dividends among ABs and women, and the Conservative cannot afford to do as poorly among these groups as they have done in recent years. But modenrisation can risk looking indistinct from New Labour, unappetising to Conservative media commentators, and also provides an opportunity for a force like UKIP (or even the BNP in a ocuple of areas) to ruin Conservative chances by capturing the populist vote.
13.”But modenrisation can risk looking indistinct from New Labour, unappetising to Conservative media commentators, and also provides an opportunity for a force like UKIP (or even the BNP in a ocuple of areas) to ruin Conservative chances by capturing the populist vote. ”
If all the 3 main parties will be on the “centre ground” and will look more or less the same, there could be an increase in defections to minor parties (UKIP and BNP on the right and Greens and Respect on the left). There won’t be anymore the purpose to stop the other party to get elected, because they will all look the same thing. Voters on the left could ask themself “why stop the tories if they are like labour now? let’s vote the greens”.
8/9: Observer: I’d say the majority of the people who vote either Labour or LibDem in Broxtowe would be willing in principle to vote for the other, and not willing to vote Tory. Three of the 11 LibDem councillors have told me privately that they vote for me. Come to that, I was regularly feeding Norman Lamb (a former mate from the Treasury Select Committee) copies of Iain Dale’s posts on vote-2005.
There are anti-Labour voters around who will support whoever might get us out, and movements in this group were a factor in the Stapleford by-election, but in this predominantly middle-class constituency the non-Tory vote is often focused on ‘ethical’ issues, and the Tories haven’t even begun to interest them. On the other hand, they are potentially less scared of the Tories than they used to be, so might, as Richard Church says, be less prone to vote tactically merely to stop them.
Andrea: ah, the ‘year the anti-war vote cost Labour a third term’ wasn’t by me - it’s in the right-hand column, which is national party material. And you’re right, it’s blank. Will nag the webmaster when he gets back from hols.
Much can happen in the next 4 years to change the political landscape . Although unlikely at this stage , should there be a large upsurge in the Lib Dem vote at the next GE , Broxtowe is a seat that could well be a surprise gain . On the County Council results they were a close 3rd in votes less than 3,000 behind the Labour vote and just over 2,000 behind the Conservative vote . This was a seat that clearly saw a lot of Lib Dem / Lab split votes although Nick would have clung on without them .
15.”And you’re right, it’s blank. Will nag the webmaster when he gets back from hols. ”
It’s not the only one which is blank. Will your seat get any boundary changes?
1) Woody, I haven’t seen the details but from what I’ve heard of the proposed changes they are only going to be attractive to a very small bumber of people. I believe that you can only borrow 50% of the value of the property, so you will need to have a fairly hefty amount of liquid assets to fund the purchase, which your average 40% taxpayer isn’t going to have. Its mainly going to benefit individuals such as directors of SMEs who manage their own pension pots.
18 - What about collective property investments where you buy a share in a group of properties for rental? (The sort of thing that you can see advertised in the Metro, and pay £1,500 for the privilege of a “seminar” where they sell it to you.) Will they be eligible?
Also remember that if you have a reasonable amount of equity in your existing property, you could remortgage to fund the 50% deposit you need on the one in your pension.
Do you think tax might be a danger, Nick? People are worried about it, despite the polls showing that some are relaxed about higher taxes (as long as it doesn’t affect them in principle). If the economy slips slightly, homeowners with a moderate income (say a household with two earners in the 25-35k range) might start to move in the direction of tax reductions.
Andrea: minor parties are certainly going to grow, taking votes off both the main parties - and the LDs in areas where they have established dominance, like the SW heartlands. As FPTP won’t allow these parties to reap many electoral dividends from this at Westminster level, the interest will come from the indirect effects on the main parties. In the normal scheme of things, the three main parties being broad churches, they’d scoop up these votes sooner or later. But if this helps to cause a hung parliament with PR, then we’d certainly enter a new era.
20.”But if this helps to cause a hung parliament with PR, then we’d certainly enter a new era. ”
With PR a hung Parliament is almost a sure thing. Minor parties could become crucial, but it depends from wath system of PR will be adopted. A system like the one used in Euro Elections will allow UKIP and Greens (and BNP and Respect probably too) enter the Parliament.
The Jenkins system was designed specifically to be not too proportional, in order to make it easier to swallow: Labour would have had a majority in 1997 and 2001 under it. I suspect that, if it came to a coaliton, Labour and the LDs would probably simply take Jenkins off the shelf. I don’t see the regional list system being wildly popular.
22. Isn’t the Jenkins system a “mixed system” with the majority of MPs elected with FPTP and only a small part with PR lists (like we have in Italy)?
9 Observer I think you may be unwittingly speaking old speak when you talk about the anti-Tory vote as if it is the main motivator. GE 2005 seems a clear watershed with such a low vote share for Labour and their loss of a mandate in England and slippage in Wales and Scotland.
It is the anti-Labour vote that is now the core of the electoral equation. In May it was split between Tories, LibDems, nationalist parties and none of the above. The only real question is how the increasing anti-labour vote will split in 2010.
Yup, but it would be “AV top-up”, with the constituency MPs - 80% or 85% of the House - being elected by straight MPs. The list system would be based on counties or boroughs.
25 - the Welsh assembly is similar in that there are too many constituency seats to get close to true proportionality. Hence Labour getting 50% of the seats on 40% of the vote.
18 Tabman a very small bumber of people What a splendid new collective noun, but what is the exact meaning? Could one say a bumber of LibDems all in shock after being tangoed at a by election.
25. With more than 80% like that it’s easy to get a majority.
A question about the meaning of “top-up system”: does the top system consist in adding MPs from what a party got with FPTP to give it a representation similar to its % of votes? Is it right or I’m making confusion?
28.”With more than 80% like that it’s easy to get a majority.”
ops, I was undecided between “with a system like that” or “with more than 80% elected with FPTP” and it looks like I made a mix of them. Sorry
But, Blue2win, while a LD, SNP or PC voter is less likely to exercise a tactical vote in Labour’s favour than they were eight years ago, they’re not, at the moment, showing any signs of preferring Conservative to Labour candidates in Lab-Tory head-to-head contests, which keeps the “bloc” alive for the time being. For instance, I was quite surprised at the way in which Peter Duncan was beaten in Dumfries and Galloway, with the SNP notional vote collapsing in favour of Labour.
28 - yes. But how close you can get depends on the relative numbers of constituency and top-up seats.
The other difference with the Jenkins recommendation is that the constituency seats wouldn’t be pure FPTP - they would be single-member seats in which voters ranked candidates by preference, and the candidate who eventually ended up with more than 50% of the votes won.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_vote_top-up
31. Thanks.
“they would be single-member seats in which voters ranked candidates by preference, and the candidate who eventually ended up with more than 50% of the votes won”
more or less like the 2 rounds system (used in France for ex.) but all in the same day (a voter immediatly decides who is his/her second choice)
32. One difference between the French two ballot syatem and the Alternative Vote is that under AV it is possible for a candidate who comes third or lower on first preferences to go on to win. If AV had been used in the French presidential election, Le Pen would almost certainly have been eliminated before the final count.
33.yes, you’re right. For a moment I thought that even with the AV system, only the first 2 would have been considered for the further rounds (like for London’s mayor). And then voting the second round later could make teh difference (it could affect turnout)
Slightly off topic I know but it is often said that one can gauge the ambition of an MP by the amount of fringe meetings they do at their Party’s Autumn Conference. Looking at the Lib Dems programme for their Blackpool conference in September I see that Nick Clegg is speaking at no fewer than SIX fringe events; nobody else gets close, not even David Laws. Man in a hurry methinks.
How do I get hold of the agenda, Dave H?
Observer at 20: I think that tax will only revive as a major issue if either the economy slumps or taxes rise significantly more than they have been doing. As long as most people are doing OK economically, they don’t mind very much paying an extra tenner or two to the NHS etc. But your comment does remind me that there’s what a Tory friend calls a ‘winner’ vote that is currently mostly Labour - upwardly mobile couples with a child or two who have been doing well under Labour, don’t necessarily have any particular political views, but don’t want to see the boat rocked. This is the group which potentially would be attracted by tax-cutting (the ‘ethical’ voters would be positively repelled by it, and think Labour are wimps not to be raising tax much more). But they’re receptive to the argument that a slash’n'burn government bent on cutting taxes would wreck the economy, and if we’re only talking about a penny here or there they don’t really care.
blue2win at 24: I think you’re projecting your own view when you say that the anti-Labour vote is now the core. Nationally, polls suggest that a substantial majority still prefer a Labour government to a Conservative one, including a large majority of LibDem voters. Observer at 30 has it right, I think - people are less keen to vote tactically for us, but still more likely to do so than vote tactically for the Tories. This is especially true in largely prosperous middle-class seats like Broxtowe - in places like Liverpool, the LibDems really do get a big anti-Labour vote locally, and I’d guess that a majority of their voters there say Tories are their second choice.
Andrea at 5: The offending message and several others that had gone blank have been restored - thanks for pointing it out. I agree that the ‘Don’t say you haven’t been warned” sentence is off-key - it sounds smug.
37. Thanks Nick. Yes, it was that “If that happens, I hope no one will say this time that they hadn’t been warned”. Not an offence, but IMO not the best way to convince undecided voters. It almost looked like that the voters had to change their top concerns to please Labour. It sounded like a Clare Short’s or George Galloway’s warning.
It makes sense it was from central officer. It wasn’t in your style (judging from your posts here). So the verdict is NOT GUILTY!
I think there are some misapprehensions about a “hung” Parliament. I doubt the Lib Dems would enter a coalition unless they could be assured that PR would be enacted - yet if it was, the existing Parliament would lose all legitimacy. And we know what the voters think about “unnecessary” elections (as opposed to us lot, who presumably all support the old Chartist demand for annual Parliaments :lol:)
I think that, once a referendum had been passed on PR, the ensuing processes - passing the RoP Bill, drawing up new boundaries where necessary, educating the public on the system and so on - would take at least two years to get through. A Parliament that would last three years or less wouldn’t seem too excessive.
37 Nick palmer MP I think you are confusing two things. Tory positive popularity (or lack of it) and Labour unpopularity. When I say that negative feelings towards Labour are the core of the electoral equation in 2010 I am not making the mistake of assuming this means an automatic increase in positive feelings for the Tory party. Far from it. As I said in my post the anti-Labour vote will split many ways and the battle to grab hold of the moving voter allegiances will be the most interesting battle over the next few years.
Observer points out that smaller parties will increase in number and the vote for others in recent elections has climbed steadily. That just adds some extra spice not to mention wild cards.
But, overall, it is the unpopularity of Labour that is the big hinge in the electoral swing in the next few years. Keeping banging on about anti-Tory coalitions and tactical voting against the evil Tories is going to increasingly miss the point and sound like a history lesson about as relevant to electoral success as one on the evils of gin in Hogarth’s London.
But then, that’s why it is said governments lose elections and oppositions do not win them: fighting the last successful war is always more comfortable that learning the new battlefield and new tricks.
The record of the last Conservative government will increasingly be irrelevant, especially if Cameron wins the leadership. A first-time voter at the end of the decade will have been five years old in 1997, and have no memory of Mrs. Thatcher in office whatsoever. But the problem is that the anti-Tory image of those years still lingers in the public mind. A new Tory brand is needed - either modernist (a socially and economically liberal party) or a traditionalist party that resembles the current Republicans in some ways.
Blue2Win @ 41 - Spot on.
On the French election Hollande has no chance, don’t waste your money on him. In fact he has admitted himself that he wouldn’t even get the nomination from his party. I’d say DSK (Dominique Stauss-Kahn) will probably get the nomination.
You don’t mention the PM, Villepin. His star is on the up. Smart money could go on him. Sarko has lost ground recently. He has looked “agitated” over the summer. Plus his wife is probably leaving him (photos appearing in people magazines), and he has shown definate psychological problems in the face of this.
So while the next French pres looks to be Sarko, it is very far from a done deal.
Wouldn’t Strauss-Kahn risk being a divisive candidate, though?
Charyxena @ 44: It would be surprising if Sarkozy didn’t get the nomination, but astonishing (given the state of the Left) if he or Villepin or another didn’t win, don’t you think?
45 I don’t see why. DSK is currently the best candidate we have He has no chance of winning, but he’s one of the least worst. The left is in a mess, a bit like Germany. Mitterrand renovated the Socialist party without ever telling everyone that it was actually now a Social-Democrat party. The chickens are now coming home to roost. Reminiscent of the Labour party after the winter of Discontent too. Loony left wanting to take power. It will fail, but as in Germany the loony left is currently eating into the left’s score and might make it unelectable at presidential level. (French presidentials are in effect coalitions of different strands).
The Centre is at last breaking free from the Right (it used to be just a rubber stamp for the right). I’m wondering if a new social democratic alliance Centre left/Centre might be the future.
I have to say I have more in common with them than the loony left, who seem to prefer 20 years of contestation to actually being in power. at least I hope they can’t win, because their theses are to quote Rocard “idiotic”.
46 In essence, I agree with you. I’d say it’s 60 percent Sarko, to 40 percent Villepin.
But never underestimate the capacity of the French Right of losing an election. They hate each other more than they want to win. Sarko has made himself a lot of enemies. Stabbing your comrades in the back repeatedly doesn’t tend to make them very loyal…
Villepin is one extremely tough cookie. Sarko doesn’t look good in tough going. He’s also done a lot of pussyfooting around.
The one thing that might change the cards is if Jospin came back. I think he’d lose, but it would be close.
My last post seems to have got caught in the spam trap.
That’ll be the pussyfooting!
What no pussyfooting! Cuh!
50 book value. Meeooww !!
http://www.goingjesus.com/images/kittyshoes.jpg
a personal impression for what it’s worth: I spent an hour with de Villepin in the run-up to the Iraq war, when a group of us waverers got together with him to find out whether there was a potential for getting the French on board if we delayed action for a few weeks (the answer was non, messieurs). He’s a fascinating chap - very much a product of the Ecole Nationales, he was intellectually scintillating, and debated fluently in French and English. Like Tony Blair, he’s able to understand a complex argument immediately and give a coherent and interesting response (for some of us loyalists that quality has been an important factor in the last eight years). Certainly more attractive as an individual than a tub-thumping populist like Sarkozy.
When you say ‘we’, Charyxena, does that mean you’re French? If so, you join Andrea in the class of Continental contributors who know more about us than we do! Scary.
Get ready for Tory leadership talk later on today. Yeo has come out for Clarke and Ken himself has given a very biging himself up interview in the Times. I can hear crys of get on with it right now.
Yeo is a good catch for Clarke. Admittedly, he’s a natural Clarke man in any event, but Clarke cannot afford to lose any more of his core to Cameron.
This could well turn into Clarke vs Davis in which case, the feeling will be stop Clarke instead of stop Davis. I wouldn’t be shocked if Cameron jumped on the good ship Davis if Clarke starts eating away at his support.
Cameron would be well advised to choose whoever is more likely to blow up in mid-term, if things are looking that bad for him. However, I’d expect him to make a big play for Rifkind, at least.
Be interesting to see who everyone declares for. Fox seems to carry a double figure vote. I would have though he would go for Davis against Clarke.
A Fox-Cameron double act might just work in “dream ticket” terms, although such deals are meaningless once the candidate actually wins the leadership. I’d agree that Fox, realistically, should fall behind Davis. May and Willetts look like eventual Cameron people at present; Lansley is more difficult to call, and might be tempted by Clarke, but would not carry much weight.
There must be no real news if Ken Clarke is getting talked up again. He is the Yesterday Man of Tory politics. He is about as trustworthy on Europe ( the code for real localisation and democracy) as his mate Tony Blair.
He wants the party to put out for him but he has not been available to do that for the party in the last eight years. Indeed he has been invisible except during leadership elections, or debates or events in which he demonstrates that he is not a team player.
It was his candidature that caused the problems in the last leadership election. The 2001 leadership Morton’s Fork with lefty Ken on one extreme and IDS as a rightist on the other extreme was unfortunate. But if 2005 became a replay that would be disastrous.
But it will not happen. Even old lag Tory MPs (who overall have hardly shone with the brightest light over the last eight years) must realise that a man reaching four score and ten by the next election, who cannot bother to support his party in the dark times and whose political and personal history is a gold mine of ammunition for our adversaries, is hardly a good bet for 2010. Party members in the constituencies worked this out four years ago. Will the MPs please catch up!
The chance of a successful KC administration is unlikely even if victory were somehow dragged from the jaws of Ken’s ash sprinkled, bitter spattered Hush Puppies. The internal contradictions are too great for successful campaigning let alone government.
The Sunday Times reports that NuLab have taken self preservation one step further and they and good democrats like Red Ken are looking after number one if the pandemic really reaches the coop.
52 When I say “we”, I mean “we Socialistes”, I’m a member of the Socialist party.
If anyone’s interested in the upcoming Congress literature, please help me chose how to vote. I haven’t made up my mind.
Yes, the ENA is one hell of a school. Its alumni are the cream of French intellectual “go-getters”. They work 20 hour days and go home and write books on poetry … no month long vacations in Crawford for them. Villepin spent his holiday in Vannes inspiring a young boy to become a Mayor.
The problem with France at the moment is that the four most talented politicians we have are all knaves, de Villiers, Le Pen, Besancenot, and Sarko. It’s a bit like in Britain having the choice between Galloway, Galloway, Redwood and Dennis skinner (not that Skinner is a knave but you get my drift).
I am lucky enough to be in Delanoë’s section. He’s one hell of a politician. Top notch stuff. We think he should be our candidate, we’d lose (because he’s gay), but with massive panache. He’d be mad to do it though. What he’s doing in Paris is way more important.
52 “whether there was a potential for getting the French on board if we delayed action for a few weeks”
I would have found that question difficult to take seriously. Once the troop build up had started, that was never going to happen. You can’t keep an expeditionary force kicking its heels. Blair’s big mistake on that was letting the troop build up happen too soon.
Though he had probably no choice either, since the Americans chose that date (despite it being disastrous for the re-building/hearts and minds campaign) so that it would fit with the US elections.
52.”If so, you join Andrea in the class of Continental contributors who know more about us than we do! Scary. ”
Nick, you’re making me look like a monster!
62.”. We think he should be our candidate, we’d lose (because he’s gay)”
Do you think that Delanoe will lose only because he’s gay? Do you think that his homosexuality won’t go down well with some others or in some parts of France?
UK shows that openly gay MPs have been able to be elected for very different type of areas.
59. “a man reaching four score and ten by the next election…” Now that probably would be a bit too old.
64 - lol
Cameron making a pitch for the youth vote this morning - calling for compulsory community service for school leavers.
66 - ???? Making a pitch for the youth vote ???? This may attract the vote of concerned of Tunbridge Wells who still regret the ending of National Service but would write off the votes of the 18 - 25 age group .
66-67. He’s already looking at the future, because for the tory leadership race you don’t have to make a pitch for the youth vote!
It looks like Mandelson is enjoying Italy (wearing shocking pink for going to theater isn’t a good way not be noticed).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/08/28/nmand28.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/08/28/ixnewstop.html
64 Lorcan All those cigars and pints of bitter, not to mention noisy jazz clubs, must age a man an extra 22%.
63 Yes, unfortunately I do. We also have lots of gay MPs and ministers, Jack Lang is the most famous (though he’s married). The last culture minister was the partner of one of France’s most famous ballet dancers.
However, a gay president. I don’t know. Though it may be that even without being gay, Delanoë couldn’t do it.
71 Yeah, strike that without Sarko Lang could possibly win.
71.”We also have lots of gay MPs and ministers”
I thought you don’t have many openly gay MPs (for openly gay I mean that they’ve declared it to the press, not that they’re out with their little circle of friends). I think UK is the one with the highest number (not 100% I’ve to check).
Well if you mean “out”, then no. But that isn’t a cultural artifact here. People are just gay or not gay. With the crack-down on private lives here, it’s not usually an issue. I don’t think that the previous culture minister was “out” in the British sense. But his partner is a male. Of course he might not be gay, he hasn’t said he is but he has a male partner …
Jack Lang is gay, but is also happily married. I’ve never heard anyone question that, it’s considered their (his wife and his) business.
74. The former culture minister was “out”, because I remember reading an interview with him talking about it.
I’m talking about “out” politicians, because if we’re discussing the effect on voters, they need to be “out” in British sense. otherwise there wouldn’t be any effect on voters (they just don’t know).
75 Yes, but as I said “out” has no meaning here. No-one is “out” in the British sense. Delanoë “outted” himself in a way brits would recognise, but it was a most unusual move. The closest we get here, is “have you told your parents?”.For other people, I have no idea who’s gay, and to perfectly honest, I don’t think it’s any of my business.
Charyxena, don’t the French call it (being gay) Le Vice Anglais?
Yes, sometimes. A bit old-fashioned. They are refering to the solid reputation for male only knees-up that British Public schools used to have.
76.”as I said “out” has no meaning here. No-one is “out” in the British sense.”
I suppose Delanoë and Jean-Jacques Aillagon show that it has a meaning in France too.
You’ve people “out” in the British sense too in other sections of the society (actors,directors, sportsmen, fashion designers,… ).
You even had all major openly gay French personalities to sign a “we’re gay and we want have the chance to adopt a children” message.
I think Charyxena expressed this perfectly: “It’s none of our business” whether someone is gay, or that M. Chirac adopted a daughter; this kind of privacy is respected, it seems to me, far better in France than in Britain. Maybe the other side of the coin is that financial and business scandals are subject to greater scrutiny here, press freedom being unitary; but I think every country has a reasonable (if patchy) record in this area. I should rate Britain better than most places at uncovering unpleasant stories which put the whole country in a bad light: for example, I am horrified at the Stockwell shooting, but think that the Press and TV have so far come out of it pretty well.
80. “I think Charyxena expressed this perfectly: “It’s none of our business” whether someone is gay, or that M. Chirac adopted a daughter; this kind of privacy is respected, it seems to me, far better in France than in Britain”
pobedonoscev, we’re talking about people who decide to come out (or maybe would you force them not to come out?). No one has talked to invade politicians privacy.
Acutally the starting point was if some French area won’t vote for an openly gay politician only because of his/her homosexuality. Then we divagated (does this word exist?) talking about the meaning of “out” in the various part of the world.
Let’s stop the topic here that it’s better.