The Livingston by-election
September 2nd, 2005
Labour should be strong enough in Cook’s old seat
Recent reports have forecast that the by-election to fill the Livingston seat of the late Robin Cook will take place on 29th September. Betting is not available yet, but a few bookies normally run by-election markets once the date is formally set.
The two main candidates (pictured to the right) will be Labour’s Jim Devine – previously Robin Cook’s election agent – and Angela Constance of the SNP, who fought the seat for the party at the General Election in May. The result then saw Labour win by a margin of almost 30% of the votes cast, with Cook winning 51.1% to Constance’s 21.6%. The 15% swing the SNP needs is not outside the bounds of what can sometimes be achieved in by-elections, but there are good reaons for thinking that Labour will hold the seat. With only a few months gone since the General Election, anti-government feeling has not built up much beyond what was there in May. Devine, with a background in the constituency, is not the sort of parachuted-in candidate often on the losing end of by-election shocks. And a sense of sympathy over the loss of Cook will probably keep up turnout among Labour voters, avoiding the highly differential turnout that often defeats governments at by-elections.
Third-placed in May, on 15.4% of the vote was the Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas, who is standing again. Though in the last parliament, the Liberal Democrats were able to jump from third place to beat Labour (or at least run close) in several by-elections (Brent East, Hartlepool, Leicester South and Birmingham Hodge Hill) that was in the context of a protest vote that would not naturally find a home with the Conservatives. Here the SNP should have less trouble picking up what movement away from Labour there is. The Lib Dem chief executive and by-election strategist Chris Rennard is playing down the party’s prospects, talking only of a chance of finishing ahead of the SNP. He hasn’t said how that will be presented on bar charts.
A possible complication is the by-election for the Glasgow Cathcart seat in the Scottish Parliament: the incumbent MSP, Mike Watson, announced his intention to resign yesterday after pleading guilty to a criminal charge of wilful fireraising. Though the Westminster seat for this constituency was once held by the Conservative Teddy Taylor, Labour won the Holyrood seat comfortably in 2003, with 39.2% of the vote to the SNP’s 16.3%. However, that year was a low point for the SNP, and given the circumstances making the seat vacant, they may fancy their chances of taking it in a by-election. Labour may consider trying to overstretch the SNP’s resources by forcing both by-elections on the same day.
Thank you from me
I’ll write round-up articles on Saturday and Sunday, and don’t forget that our prediction competition is open until Saturday night. But this will be my last weekday article before Mike Smithson returns from his holiday in France. I’d like to thank Mike for asking me to look after PoliticalBetting.com during his break. It has been great fun, whilst leaving me in no doubt of the hard work Mike has put in for the last year and a half to build such an excellent website. Thanks also to Robert Smithson for his technical support of the site. The couple of technical problems we have had have been very swiftly fixed by Robert.
Trying to write articles which are still up to date when I publish them, particularly on the Conservative leadership election, has led me to appreciate how our analysis and predictions often move slower than events themselves. I feel for the character of Brigadier Ernest Pudding in Thomas Pynchon’s Gravity’s Rainbow:
He started in on a mammoth work entitled Things That Can Happen in European Politics. Begin, of course, with England, “First,” he wrote, “Bereshith [in the beginning], as it were: Ramsay MacDonald can die.”
By the time he went through resulting party alignments and possible permutations of cabinet posts, Ramsay MacDonald had died.
Lastly, I would like to thank everybody who has read and commented on the articles here over the last two weeks. The discussion section is a marvellous community, and needless to say I am not disappearing – I shall certainly still be contributing to the comments, political and otherwise, as much as I can.
Philip Grant
Guest editor
Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.
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Thank you too for filling in - I’m sure many of us would have been suffering severe withdrawl symptoms otherwise!
Well done Philip on an excellent editorship of the site with lots of interesting topics .
My instincts are that Labour should hold Livingston reasonably comfortably and the Lib Dem vote will hold up well enough to stop the SNP getting too close .
Cathcart could prove more interesting . Now in the new Glasgow South parliamentary seat which saw a good increase into 2nd place by the Lib Dems so I would fancy their chances more here than the SNP given the right campaign .
Ooer My post disappeared into the spam filter but I have no idea why there was no s-e-x or c-i-etc . Will see if it appears before trying again
3 - I’ve rescued it Mark. No idea what set the filter off. Glad you’ve enjoyed the site.
4. You should publish the list of banned words.
5 - I’ve had a look at the list but I still can’t see any of them in Mark’s post. By the way, “sex” (on its own, there are some compound words which are banned) is fine, and “socialism” is fine now too.
6. Sometimes I take lots of minutes to try to guess banned word which have blocked some of my posts. So I discovered that “mov*e”, “pic*” and “brunet*e” are not allowed. Once the spam filter blocked a link to Alan Duncan’s website (I was obliged to link another photo).
6 - Thanks Philip
7 - you are right on all of those - except I think “movie” is ok in the singular but “movie-s” is blocked. “Texas” used to be banned but is now ok.
6 - ““socialism” is fine now too”
Don’t tell that to Tony.
10. it’s a Campaign Group’s win. Alan Simpson’s campaign to keep clause IV has been successful here.
Sorry have to correct an eroneous comment on a previous thread. Maxwell Park is in the Govan seat at Holyrood not Cathcart. Allthough Cathcart does have some other miidle class wards like Cathcart itself, Newlands and Mount Florida (where I’ll be at the weekend to see Paul Hartley rip apart the Italian defence - sorry Andrea!). My sister lives in the area so I’ll try and keep you updated as best I can. Now if only we can persuade Teddy Taylor to stand . . .
12.” (where I’ll be at the weekend to see Paul Hartley rip apart the Italian defence - sorry Andrea!).”
I suppose it’s something sport related, but what sport are we talking about?
13- Football. Paul Hartley plays for Britains most famous club - Heart of Midlothian.
14. Will Heart of Midlothian play an Italian team? Which one?
I’m showing all my ignorance over this subjects!
15 - I think he means the Scottish national side against Italy this weekend in World Cup qualifying. I don’t think Hearts are in Europe this season although they have started the domestic season incredibly well so may be there next year.
14 - No Scotland are playing Italy. Paul Hartley plays for Hearts and Scotland. He’s amazing. In Brazil they often refer to the great Pele as ‘the black Paul Hartley’.
17
Oh well - at least you havn’t got a mad swede trying to fit round pegs in square holes - Beckham taking the holding role indeed…
Oh, and whilst I’m here, thanks BV for a great series of articles these last 2 weeks - almost as if Mike was never away!
Thanks Philip for some very interesting stories - you have been a great Editor!
Regarding the topic in question, I cannot see pass Labour holding this seat relatively comfortably for a by-election. Indeed I think the SNP and the Lib Dems will probably both fight quite hard, which will have the end result of changing absolutely nothing in terms of positioning!
However if the Lib Dems did get 2nd, it would cause some uncomfortable moments for the SNP.
I no nothing about the Glasgow seat so I will not comment further than if that Labour MSP resigned under a cloud then surely this may look bad on the Labour party in general?
Finally does anyone know if Alex Salmon is planning to stand for Holyrood next year and if so will he be giving up on Westminster?
Max, I concur fully with your praise for Paul Hartley.
I am a keen Burnley FC fan, but I have considerable Scottish roots, boosted by my attendance at St Andrews University. Thus I had to watch some football and chose the team of my grandfather - Heart of Midlothian!
Now I must admit I am a little sceptical of this Romanov chap, but things seem to be going well and George Burley is a superb manager. I really must organise to watch them this season again.
James M - to answer you’re above question Alex Salmond is planning to stand for Holyrood. He had anitially said he would stand on the North East list but this can be a bit risky depending on how many constituencies you win. So there is now talk he may stand in Moray where the greatly respected Margret Ewing is standing down. She used to be MP for East Dunbartonshire which is surely the only seat in Britain to have been held by 4 Parties since the 1970’s.
As for the by-elections the Tories will probably put more effort into Cathcart as they will have one eye on the council elections in 2007. Under STV we would be hopefull of picking up one or two seats in the area.
And I’d be careful going to Burnley - you wouldn’t want to bump into a certain Mr A Campbell, especially if he finds out about oyur political leanings!
Thanks Max for that information. Alastair Campbell has stood behind me at least once at a Burnley away match.
I may not think much of his politics, but I cannot deny is he a big claret!
Are you a regular at Tynecastle yourself? I once helped sell the fanzine ‘Always the Bridesmaid’ at the European game against Bordeaux. I was near the away end so it allowed me to use my Lancastrian accent, mixed in with some French! The cheeky fans offered to buy one between about 25 of them!
Pb.com Anthem (proposal draft one: in need of considerable improvement)
Hearts of oak are we then,
We write with no pen
We always are ready,
Steady, posters, steady,
We’ll type and we’ll conquer
Again and again.
Come cheer up, O posters,
’tis to glory we steer,
To add something more
To this wonderful year,
To honour Mike Smithson,
And Phillip Grant ,too
For where would we be
Without taking their cue
Chorus
We ne’er see our foes
But we wish them to stay,
They never see us
But we like it that way,
If they’re fun, why we follow,
As typing’s no chore,
And if they won’t write us,
We think it’s a bore.
Apologies to David Garrick Melody - Dr. Boyce
Max ….if Paul Hartley is any good why has not been linked with a move to Leicester yet? He must be the only forward in Scotland we have not been linked with:)
I hear that the by-election in Drayton and Farlington was won by the Conservative candidate(2100 votes) 200 votes more than the Liberal Democrat - it was a real fight with the Labour candidate forgetting to hand in his nomination papers.
There was also a English Democrats candidate standing apparently which cant have helped the Tory vote. Sounds like a well run Tory campaign to me (and in Portsmouth North)…
I hear that the by-election in Drayton and Farlington was won by the Conservative candidate(2100 votes) 200 votes more than the Liberal Democrat - it was a real fight with the Labour candidate forgetting to hand in his nomination papers.
There was also a English Democrats candidate standing apparently which cant have helped the Tory vote. Sounds like a well run Tory campaign to me (and in Portsmouth North)…
26 - Yes looks like a good hard-fought campaign by both the Conservatives and Lib Dems showing very little change since last year and the GE . Suspect that the English Democrat vote came mainly from Labour voters who otherwise abstained .
O/T Completely - Anyone interested in cricket - limited number of seats released for Day 5 at the Oval. http://www.surreycricket.com
If Ld Rennard is talking down the Lib Dems’ chances then we can rule out a Lib Dem win. Surely that means the case for holding both by-elections on the same day is very strong, as Phil says, dividing SNP resources. Surely they would have to choose just one to fight. The Scottish Parliament seat should be much more likely. The general election seemed to show that many voters have decided the SNP is only really relevant in the Scottish Parliament not the UK Parliament. And the margin between Lab and SNP for Glasgow Cathcart was much closer.
Does anyone know whether the SNP themselves are now more interested in MSPs than MPs? Certainly a number of MPs stood down to stand as MSPs.
16-17. Oh, thanks. I should have known it! Well, the first match in Italy wasn’t very good for the Scots
22 - Yeah. I’ve had a season ticket for around 10 years.
24 - Mark he’s signed a lucrative new contract so I’m afraid you’re stuck with Mark de Vries! Ant exciting goings on in Welsh politics. Is the Labour AM for Cardiff North standing down?
29 - The last time Cathcart was fought a former Labour Lord Provost fought (Pat Lally) as an independent. This may have skewed the result somewhat. The former Lord provost Charlie Gordon has allready said he would like the Labour nomination.
PA: Turnout dropped to just 8.2% at Earleswood, South Kesteven District, Lincolnshire, one of two by-elections for the authority.
RESULTS:
South Kesteven District - All Saints: C 271, Lab 193, Lib Dem 186, Ind 14. (May 2003 Two seats C 443, 425, Lab 352, 347). C hold. Swing 0.4% Lab to C.
South Kesteven District - Earleswood: Lab 219, C 133. (May 2003 Three seats Lab 356, 345, 290, C 230, Lib Dem 143, 119). Lab hold. Swing 5% C to Lab.
As far as I can see the only battle n the Scottish by-elections is for second place - you just can’t see past Labour (particularly in the land of the Weedge).
It is perfectly possible for the Lib Dems to take second place in both contests (or for the Nats).
It’s a sign of how far the Tories have fallen that they aren’t really seen as contenders for a seat they held relatively recently (well a political generation ago). I don’t think Teddy Taylor could save them (particularly as he was booted out from Cathcart just as the Tories won elsewhere).
Good job, Phil - interesting articles.
What share of the vote did the LD’s get in the Cathcart Holyrood seat?
35 - 7.8%. As mentioned above the independent (but formally Labour Lord Provost) candidate Pat Lally polled 10.8%. Difficult to say where his vote will go. It’ll also be interesting to see how the SSP got on who polled a respectable 12.6% last time.
36 - thanks. If both are on the same day, it would be interesting to see what the SNP did. Abandoning Livingston for Cathcart would leave the LD’s as having a great chance to leap frog them and take a nice second in Livingston.
Without Lally standing, I think that should make it better for Labour, but due to the circumstances of the by-election, I think they might be a little anxious. Livingston should be a Labour hold, though.
35 - In the GE the Lib Dems were a clear 2nd with 19% of the vote in the new Glasgow South seat which includes virtually all the old Cathcart seat . I am quite bullish about their chances here , we shall have to see if Lord Rennard feels the same .
Cathcart Personally I can’t see it moving to the liberals just yet. SNP are too strong. The tories i can’t see winning in Glasgow till they have neutered the SNP. Giving us the Tarton tories back. But to conquer the SNP we need to get them out of tory heartlands such as Perth and tayside North at Holyrood and Perthshire North and Perthshire South and Ochill, Angus and Argyl and Bute at the westminster. If the SNP loss say two of these to the tories. The tories become viable again in Scotland. Also gaining Berwickshire would be nice. It was quite an impressive result. does anyone have any info on what tactics they used.
39 - Argyll is a fairly safe Lib Dem seat , Stuart . The SNP are weak in Glasgow South with only 12.6% only 24 votes ahead of the Conservatives - a gift for the Lib Dem Barchart brigade . Even I can produce one to show that only the Lib Dems can beat Labour here - LOL
Dear mark
My mistake, however, should be able to win it one day. I was meant to have typed Moray, had other thinks on my mind.
Of the 22 Scottish by elections since 1970, the SNP have increased their share of the vote in comparision with the previous General Election in 19 cases.
39 - Nothing particularly special Stuart. From speaking to friends down their we had a very good, very energetic candidate. We also have a stronger local govt base than in many years (the council in general is a lot more ‘political’ than it used to be), of our 11 councillors on SBC all but 1 are in the Berwickshire seat. Up untill a few weeks out we thought we may even have had a chance of winning but it was still a good result. It also gives us a good platform for 2007. In demographic terms the Borders is getting older and more English which may also be helping.
41. The tories could hope to take Angus and Perth and North Perthshire next time (especially the second after the big swing this time, while the margin Moray and Ochil seem too large. Then maybe the tories will have a performance similar to 1997 Labour showing and all those seats will fall, but in “normal conditions” I would doubt to see Ochil and Moray blue in 2009.
oh well hopefully we wll return the boarders back to there rightfull place and have conservatives representing them at every level. Good luck on 2007
An interesting question re Cathcart.
Glasgow, Cathcart now covers (if I have my maps correct) Glasgow South and possibly a little bit of Glasgow South West. Does this mean that the electorrate in Cathcart will not be the same electorate as in South / South West?
46 - Yes. The Holyrood and Westminster boundaries are not coterminous.
Max what are the chances of any westminster seats in Edingburgh
48 - To be honest I think its impossible to predict this far out. In a good year South would be winnable (4,000) behind and in a very good year South West. However South would only be winnable if paople wanted a change of government rather than a change of MP as the LD’s are in such a strong 2nd place.
Interestingly Labour are rumoured to be wanting the high profile ex-MP George Foulkes to stand on the list in 2007. This would suggest they are more hopeful of picking up a seat hear than winning back Pentalnds or South and the LD’s are talking up their chances in Central.
48 - Sorry that should be predict ‘acurately’!
49. The problem for the tories in Edingburgh South is that there’re the libdems in the middle and they’llc ertainly fight it hard (it’s one of their top target next time I think). So they’ll probably need a very good year to win South too (unless the libdems will colapse).
Could any of our more ‘mature’ contributers, who can remember that far back, tell me if the Tories came from third in any seat to win in 1979 or 1983?
52 - Cannot give you any examples but 1979 was a terrible election for the Nationalists so possibly somewhere like Anglesey or Banff or that sort of area would have been your best bet for a gain from third place. Alliance showings in 1983 may have handed the Tories seats, but mainly or perhaps all in seats where the Alliance surged from a Liberal third place or no candidate in 1979. Possibly Lincoln in 1983?
52 The Conservatives did gain Lincoln from 3rd place in 1979 but as the sitting MP Dick Taverne did not stand this does not really count . Much stranger was Dunbaronshire East gained by Labour from the SNP in 1979 leapfrogging the 2nd place Conservatives .
54 - The list I have just looked at shows Dunbartonshire East as a Tory gain from Labour against the national swing in February 1974, then SNP in October 1974 and back to Labour against the swing in 1979. And now Lib Dem, although presumably the boundaries have changed. Fickle folk in those parts!
55. A very volatile seat in the 70’s, I would say.
OT: (I’ve never made any of them
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1761335,00.html
I suppose you, Brits, don’t like this proposal, right?
Mark Senior - 27 - What was interesting to me about the Portsmouth CC, Drayton & Farlington result was the assumption that Labour voters who voted in the absence of a Labour candidate would vote Lib Dem - this was not the case as even if you assume that the 5% drop from 48% to 43% in turnout was entirely due to absence of the Labour electorate and all the votes polled by the English Democrats were Labour ones the conservative increased vote share matched the Lib Dem increased share.This was a seat that in my opinion would have been ripe for a Lib Dem gain a few months ago.I think the tories are currently punching above their weight and whilst I cannot prove this if I am correct in my thinking then the result of next weeks local by-election in North Norfolk DC Chaucer Ward will prove interesting.
The Lib Dems are defending a seat from May 2003 at which the result was Con 423(45.9%),Lib Dem 454(49.2%),Greens 45(4.9%) Turnout 48.6% - no Labour candidate but a green one and the assumption must be they took Lib Dem votes.The candidates this time are Tory,Lib Dem and Labour and again it will be interesting (for me anyway) to try and foresee from whom Labour will take its votes .
57.”What was interesting to me about the Portsmouth CC, Drayton & Farlington result was the assumption that Labour voters who voted in the absence of a Labour candidate would vote Lib Dem”
I don’t find very convenient for labour helping to give the full control of the council to the libdems. Now Labour could have some influence (the libdems have to find somewhere the vote they need to have a majority), while if the Libdems would have gained this seat, they could have done whetever they would like.
57 - Hi Vino , I expected most of the Labour voters to abstain this time or perhaps even spoil the ballot papers in a few cases ( some research I did into the County Council results showed that where a Lib Dem candidate did not stand the number of spoilt ballot papers increased by 50 - 100 votes but there people were going out to vote anyway in the GE ) . The seat had a big increase in the Lib Dem vote between 2003 and 2004 so it could well have fallen back a little to the GE level .
I agree that the Chaucer ward contest will be interesting but again I suspect Labour voters will come from those who did not vote in 2003 .
Vino - potentially interesting as you say. I would suspect on the basis of hunch and nothing more; in the absence of a Green, those votes will go to the Lib Dem; the Labour candidate will take votes 2/5 from Tory, 3/5 from Lib Dem. Of course this may well all be scuppered (and probably will be) by differential turn out anyway.
57/60 - The result may also be skewed by it being a small rural ward, by the deceased councillor’s widow standing to replace him and by a history of bruising by-elections with big swings in that part of the world. After all that, I am not sure anything useful will be learnt regarding where Labour gets its vote (which I suspect may be trivially small anyway). The main interest to be had for outsiders may be whether North Norfolk Tories are regrouping or disintegrating after May’s catastrophic result.
57/60/61- Then a local by-election could be affected by many unknown (to many of us) factors (a local post office closing, the local market beeing moved,…).
62 - Not in Chaucer ward. Nothing of note has happened there since 1952, and whatever happened then wasn’t very exciting and has now been forgotten.
63. Old people have a long memory! Don’t underestimate them: my grandfather could remember what he has done during the war, but he couldn’t remeber what he has done yesterday. So maybe Chaucer voters want to have their say over the Beverdige plan!
But if you’re local, I’ll trust you.
Now here is one for the anoraks (which I mean in a complimentary sense, of course). I myself live in Chaucer ward - but not the same as the one that is being discussed. I wonder how many Chaucer wards there are in the country? And what the most common ward name is?
The full list of candidate so far declared to the Livingston by Election are in alphabetical order to avoid accusations of me showing favouritism
Angela Constance SNP
Jim Devine Labour
Charles Dundas Liberal Democrat
Steven Nimmo SSP
David Robertson Green
Dick Rodgers The Common Good
65 - my guess would be whatever the most common parish church name is - St James’, St George’s, St Mary’s or something like that.
66 - “Dick Rodgers The Common Good”
Rather selfish of him.
Max…..Only seen MDV for about 5 mins so cannot really comment….though its fair to say he has mixed reviews on the fan web sites…so we will see…..
On Cardif North ….yep the sitting AM is going…..Labour are fretting about Cardiff North and the vale of Clamorgan…..they fear they could lose both and because of the regional list system they might only pick up one seat on the list because they lose a lot of votes to the greens respect and next time Forward Wales( Ron Davies John Marek and Peter Law the grumpy old men party) …there is other stuff happening but am not going to post it here:)
email me at Markjones64@btinternet.com
Good luck against Italy…..we are playing some obscure north european team and hope to keep the score respectable….
65. Out of 8869 wards in England and Wales in 2002:
Central 27
Castle 25
Park 23
Abbey 20
Grange 14
St Mary’s 13
Town 12
Victoria 10
Only 2 Chaucers, and no others obviously named for literary figures as far as I can tell, but there are 3 Churchills, 2 Walpoles and one Baldwin.
I haven’t included Scotland and Wales because
I can’t be ar*edwards in Scotland are being revised for STV, and elections in Northern Ireland are not held at ward level.Thanks Lorcan - an excellent effort. I have in the past lived in a Castle ward as well as Chaucer.
Re. 54, the Conservatives gained Lincoln from the sitting Labour MP, Margaret Jackson (aka Margaret Beckett). She had gained the seat from sitting Democratic Labour MP, Dick Taverne, in October 74.
70: There is a Charles Dickens ward in Portsmouth, and I think there used to be a Pepys ward in one of the London boroughs.
73. Yes, Pepys covered part of Deptford. I think most of it went into an expanded Evelyn (another one that I missed).
74 - as in John Evelyn, presumably, rather than Evelyn Waugh or indeed his wife Evelyn?
75. Indeed. Gender-neutral given names are rare in English but in some cultures they are the norm. Sikhism is a prime example.
Another ward named after an individual, and abolished in the most recent boundary changes was Lansbury in Tower Hamlets. Not the Miss Marple one, but her grandfather.
57 - I don’t think the Tories are punching above their weight in Portsmouth - the fact that the Labour Party couldn’t even get their nomination in speaks volumes- esp. in a marginal seat that was only held by the Labour Party by a thousand or so votes. Having been on the campaign I may be a bit biased but generally it was a well fought one with a big spread of people
76.”Another ward named after an individual, and abolished in the most recent boundary changes was Lansbury in Tower Hamlets. Not the Miss Marple one, but her grandfather.”
but did they change it because they weren’t “Murder, She Wrote” fans?
77 – Bart – my statement “the tories are currently punching above their weight” is nothing more than a gut feeling – I think the hatred felt to the conservative party by a large part of the electorate due to the Major years has suddenly gone and some people I know who would vote “any body but tory” have altered their minds – why I don’t know and I think this has been reflected in the recent local by-elections – seats where the possibility of them losing was high but they have retained it – whether this is conservative voters returning to the fold or voters changing party is a very moot point. If I’m right, and I’m not saying I am, the question is will this change be reflected in Parliamentary by-elections?. I tend to bet unfortunately with my feelings and not my brain hence the betting drubbing I took in May!
Hang on, Bart (77)…
“esp. in a marginal seat that was only held by the Labour Party by a thousand or so votes. Having been on the campaign I may be a bit biased but generally it was a well fought one with a big spread of people”
Where are you taking about? Surely not Drayton & Farlington…. That was a Tory defence.
80. I think he meant that Drayton & Farlington is in the Portsmouth North constituency (a tory/labour marginal)
77 - Accidents do happen , I remember the County Council Elections of 1975 when the Conservatives only lost 2 seats nationwide . One was a Liberal gain in Brighton ( a first seat on the council ) and the other a Liberal gain in Uckfield because the Conservative councillor forgot to put in his nomination papers .
I deduce from all the recent byelections little change from the GE position results occasionally reflecting local situations .
49 - Max - SW Edinburgh is there for the taking if only the Tories put the same effort in as they did in South. Just because the Tories are 4,000 behind (compared to 7,000 in SW) doesn’t make South more winnable - it has a majority of Lib Dem councillors, a Lib Dem MSP and they are a knat’s chuff of the Westminster seat. There are practically no circumstances where this situation would result in a Tory gain (a bit like the Yams chances of winning the SPL). Lot’s of effort for little reward.
Winning seats is not about arithmetic - it’s about momentum and force.
83 - Looking at the 2003 Edinburgh Council Elections in South West , the Conservatives should have done much better in the GE . They outpolled Labour and the Lib Dems were a poor 3rd . The general Labour recovery from a bad result in 2003 was to be expected but not the good Lib Dem performance in this seat . I agree that the Lib Dems are poised to take South next time .
Sorry Andrea, you are wrong about Tower Hamlets ward names ( a very controversial issue) Lansbury ward was merged with East India to create East India and Lansbury.
The ward derives from the Lansbury estate (named afetr George Lansbury, councillor for Poplar (1903-40)twice Mayor of Poplar (1919-20 and 1936-37), MP for Bow and Bromley (1910-12 and 1922-40) and leader of the Labour party 1931-34)
Strangely the state (and ward) are not in what was George Lansbury’s constituency.
His son, Edgar, father of Angela Lansbury, was also Mayor of Poplar (1924-25)
Tower Hamlets also has Cubitt Town ward - named after William Cubitt who built the area. He was an MP and twice Lord Mayor of London.
Thinking quickly, there is Brunel ward in Hillingdon and Fanshawe ward in Barking and Dagenham.
I will start checking the london wards - it could be quite (sad) and amusing.
81 - Spot on Andrea - I think the Conservatives were about 1,800 votes away from winning Portsmouth North. Seems to me that the Labour campaigns in the area are run from some offcie in Reading hence the mix up with the nominations papers.
85. When the Lansbury ward was merged with East India ?
83. and don’t you think that if the tories would have put efforts in E SW, Labour would have made the same thing? It’s Alister Darling’s seat, not the seat of a troublemaker or an anonymous beckbencher.
All 32 Boroughs in London had redrawn wards for the 2002 elections.
From 1900 -78 what became Lansbury wrad was called Poplar West, and East India was called Poplar East. There was a justification to call the 2002 East India and Lansbury ward North Poplar ward, but so much argument took place over ward names in Tower Hamlets that this was never pursued.
89. So, was the ward called Lansbury from 1978 to 2002?
79. 81. I guess the Conservatives in Portsmouth North still had a current list of “definites” from the GE and just got their vote out.
I doubt if they have such a list for the by-elections in Cathcart and Livingston !
86: Two more wards named after people (though not in London): Isaac Newton ward in South Kesteven, and Sir Moses Montefiore ward in Thanet.
Poplar West was renamed Lansbury in 1978, in 2002 it returned two councillors. In 2002 it was merged with Esat India (which also returned two councillors)and became East India and Lansbury, returning three councillors.
Without checking books (it has been far too nice a day) wards names after people are more obvious than we perhaps think.
Southwark had Alleyn, Browning, Faraday, Ruskin as well as Chaucer.
Lewisham, Drake, Grinling Gibbons and Marlowe as well as Pepys
Hackney has Victoria and Defoe
Camden, Adelaide (Hove had that as well). The Borough takes it’s name from the Marques of Camden (not a pub) whose family name is Pratt, imotalised in Pratt Street, Camden Town.
Boleyn in newham is named after the pub, rather than Mrs Henry Tudor
II
Greenwich had Vanbrugh
Waltham Forest has William Morris.
We then get lots of ward names (Gascoigne and Campbell in Barking for instance) that are almost certainly named after people or families. De Beauvoir in Hackney, Walpole in Ealing, Sulivan and Sandford in Hammersith could be interesting if and when researched. In fact it seems prevalent all over London
Looking at the two Scottish coming by elections. I expect a heavy swing against Labour. Where will it go, probably split betweeen constituencies, with the remaining Con vote being squeezed, probably giving Livingstone to the SNP and Glasgow Cathcart to the Lib Dems. Will be interesting to see if both parties go flat out in each seat or target one each only. After the general the Lib Dems are very well placed in Glasgow South which has I believe the entire Cathcart seat in its boundaries and in Livingstone I have a hunch Robin Cook kept the general election swing against Labour in Scotland down at Livingstone, therefore the SNP have an added possible bounce to come. Main problem for the Lib Dems maximising their vote may be a new leader who is perhaps not so well known and who as a minister did authorise a controversial new road in the Glasgow area.
However Iraq continues to play big on the left and left of centre and Ken Clarke from a more right wing perspective has given it added impetus. Whatever they say it continues to be Labours achilles heel, especially in the large cities and seats such as these two.
94 - I believe a small part of Ward 62 Darnley is in Cathcart but in Glasgow South West rather than South .
On wards named after people the only one I can think of in Scotland is Scott’s View in the Borders. Named after Sir Walter Scott.
Until 2003 we had a ward in Leicester named Latimer after the Leicestershire born Hugh Latimer, Bishop of Worcester who was burned at the stake by ‘bloody’ Mary in 1555.
To be very parochial my own ward of Eyres Monsell is named after a Major Eyres-Monsell who owned much of the land which the ward now occupies.
73, 74 - the old Pepys was is now entirely within the Telegraph Hill ward of Lewisham - Evelyn takes in the far north of the borough, with New Cross in between.
Re 95: From the Labour Party constituency web site for Glasgow South,if this helps,
“Electorally, Glasgow South is the largest of the city’s Westminster seats, with an electorate of 68,000. It is largely made up of the former Cathcart seat - including the communities of King’s Park, Kennishead, Carnwadric, Castlemilk, Carmunnock, Mount Florida, Muirend, Cathcart, Croftfoot, Simshill, Battlefield, Newlands and Hillpark - plus about a third of the former Govan seat, including the areas of Shawlands, Maxwell Park, Pollokshaws and Langside”.
The introduction of areas from Govan formerly held by the SNP does not appear to have helped them.
On the face of things it looks good for the Lib Dems, they will be able to run bar charts showing how much their percentage vote and position has changed since 2003!! we know the score
The recent local election adjoining Livingstone suggests trouble for Labour. There was no Lib Dem candidate but the swing against Labour to SNP was prodigious.No doubt SNP will use that as a springboard and they have a female local candidate, always a useful resource. If the Conservatives had picked the Manchester woman barrister I forget
her name, they might have well won Cheadle.
99.”No doubt SNP will use that as a springboard and they have a female local candidate, always a useful resource. If the Conservatives had picked the Manchester woman barrister I forget
her name, they might have well won Cheadle. ”
I doubt that people will vote for a candidate only because she’s a woman. At least I hope they won’t do so.
99 - The bits from Govan and Rutherglen are only in the Westminster seat so won’t feature in this by-election. Losing middle class area in places like Maxwell Park, Pollokshaws and (part of) King’s Park will not hurt Labour and the SNP as much as it does the Lib Dems and Conservatives.
Latymer in Enfield must be named after an individual. Probably, quite a lot of place names are named after individuals (and of course, vice versa).
101.
2001 GE result Cathcart: Lab 54% SNP 15% Con 13% LD 11%.
2001 Notional result Glasgow South: Lab 51% SNP 17% Con 14% LD 12%.
2005 GE result Glasgow South: Lab 47% LD 19% SNP 13% Con 13%.
Extrapolating to “2005 Notional result Cathcart” gives:
Lab 50% LD 18% Con 12% SNP 11%.
102 - Suspect you’re right Sean. You can add a few ‘mythical’ or ’semi-mythical’ figures as well, eg. Robin Hood ward in Nottingham.
Please forgive this somewhat off-thread (and rather late) posting, but I learned somewhare (probably here!) that there is only one Parliamentary constituency which is named (indirectly) after an individual - Brighton Kemptown is so called because a Mr Kemp, a speculative property developer, built it and then represented it in Parliament.
105, it was a point made by David McKie in one of his Thursday Guardian ‘Elsewhere’ columns about a month ago. He checked the assertion with me, and discounted my suggestions of St Albans, St Helens x 2, St Ives or Holborn and St Pancras …
107 - Surely Regent’s Park and Kensington North is (half-)named after George IV…
Robert [106] - you can add on a half (clue: only seat partly named for a former Prime Minister)…
I was going to suggest, facetiously, Salisbury, Aberdeen x 2, Newcastle x 3, Chatham, Derby x 2 and perhaps Devon(shire) x 3.5 (or even North x n)then it occurred to me that the way things worked in Scotland Bute might even have been named after the earl rather than the other way round ….
Poplar and Canning Town!
I’ve found an interesting theory about the “Selly Oak” name in Birmingham:
stories are told of how an unfortunate woman called Sarah or Sally was condemned as a witch and killed in this district. An oak stake was driven through her heart and where she was buried an oak tree grew – or else she was hung from an oak tree and buried beneath it. This became known as Sally’s Oak and the district name then arose
99.9% not true, but very suggestive.
… and the Seven Sisters who give their name to a ward in Haringey were trees, alas…
I wonder if any of our present politicians, writers or artists will gain immortality in the name of an electoral division?
113. maybe not an electoral division, but at least a road, yes!
“Where do you live?
St Tony Blair Road. and you?”
“Gordon Brown Street”
Quite a few of the constituencies in Australia are named after people including politicians eg Menzies.
115. Robert, could you mention some interesting constituencies names from Australia (and the history behind)?
It’s an interesting topic.
Canning Town is correct. It is not after George Canning but Canning’s - a manufacturing company that built houses nearby their factor for their workers.
Silvertown has teh same history and one or other was the gunpowder factory that exploded with devastating carnage during the First World War.
If you check the Australian Parliament website it gives details of electorate names and how and why they are chosen. They use electorates and not constituents.
I was fascinated by discovering was called Goldstein and investigated.
Most former state and federal Prime Ministers sem to get an electorate as well as other leading figures.
111 - I’d never heard that: interesting!
I am sorry about typing too quickly and not proofing. Australians use the term electorate as opposed to constituency, rather in the way that Candaians use Riding.
The electorate of Goldstein, in Victoria is named after Vida Goldstein, the first woman to fight a parliamentary election in the British Empire!
The Australian electoral commission gives details as to how each electorate is named.
In previous houses it would sound interesting to have represented Diamond Valley.
For Australia interested watchers try this
http://www.aec.gov.au/_content/Who/profiles/alpha.htm
121. Thanks very much Peter Golds. It seems thay’ve many electorates named after famous people.
On the subject of constituencies named after people – what about Telford? I think the new town was named after the engineer Thomas Telford.
On more dubious grounds, the various Kingston-Upon-Hull constituencies were named after the King (Edward I IIRC). And presumably Kingston-Upon-Thames was named after a king, too.
I used to believe that Milton Keynes was named as a strange hybrid of two economists – Milton Friedman and J M Keynes, but sadly this turned out not to be the case – there was a Milton Keynes village in North Buckinghamshire long before either economist.
Peterlee is another new town named after a person (the Durham miners’ leader Peter Lee) but sadly this doesn’t have a constituency named after it yet (although I think it is the largest town in it’s constituency of Easington).
It is a bit of a shame (although no doubt we will all get over it) that little imagination is used with constituency names in the UK. They are pretty blandly geographical and occasionally annoy locals by relating to one particular town when there are several similarly sized towns in the area (e.g. Totnes, Wells etc). I suppose the argument is that you can’t name it after some notable historic figure as most such figures are “political” even if only in the broadest cultural sense, but it is still a pity.
124.”It is a bit of a shame (although no doubt we will all get over it) that little imagination is used with constituency names in the UK. ”
If you think little imagination is used in UK, you should come in Italy. They called Milan consituencies: Milano 1, Milano 2, Milano 3,….. This is very little imagination!
http://www.ukip.org/abc_news/gen12.php?t=1&id=1556
UKIP names candidate for Livingston
05-09-2005
A former army officer has been selected as the UK Independence Party candidate to fight the Livingston by-election on September 29th.
Peter Adams served all over the world in a 35 year career in the Royal Engineers. Mr Adams, who is 57, was commissioned from the ranks and ended his career as a Captain.
Since leaving the army, he has also acted as the administration officer for the Territorial Army in Livingston. Mr Adams, who comes from Kirkcaldy, says he intends to fight the election on a “mixture of European policies and local issues”, but as a former army officer he will also be concentrating on the campaign to save the Scottish regiments.
Mr Adams currently works for the Royal Institute for the Blind in Scotland.
126. How many candidate we have so far?
Labour, SNP, Libdem, Green, Scottish Socialist Party, UKIP.
I suppose the tories will field a candidate.
Any others?
Do BNP, Respect (they don’t seem to be organized in Scotland) and Veritas (does they still exist?) have any intention to contest the seat?
126 - You would have thought if Mr Adams wanted to get rid of £500, he might have given it to the RNIB rather than chucking it away on the deposit. Still, each to his own.
The boundary commission have recently got very lax in constituency names allowing some shockers. Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland for one, Sleaford and North Hykeham and Birmingham Sparkbrook and Small Heath.
Looking at the 1950 and 1955 names they were easily identifiable. In rural areas (Totnes, Wells are mentioned, Brigg comes to mind and so on) it was traditional to use the name of a historic centre, when one existed. In other cases it was compass points.
For Borough constituencies the name came first (Battersea, North) and in counties the compass point came first (East Hertfordshire).
However commissioners in recent years tend to give in to verbose poeple at inquiries and allow these increasingly overindulgent names.
Do read Robert Waller’s Almanac - it makes some excellent comments on the origins of constituency names.
Very true, Peter. The Scottish review was incredibly bad in this respect, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East; Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey; Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale; all incredibly unmanagable names.
130 observer. I’m not sure your Scottish examples make the case. The reduction in Scottish MPs and the sheer scale of the constituencies do not lend themselves to easy mouthfulls, unless we opt for some vulgar regional drivel …….. Highlands Northish or Borders Central and West - Yuk . Let the name proudly describe the constituency - Kilsyth warts and all !
131 – Jack – I disagree. I can’t imagine there are many people who care sufficiently about the area a constituency covers who are unwilling to put in any more effort into finding out than reading the name of it. In the case above, I think a simple ‘Inverness’ would be sufficient – sadly, I don’t imagine there are actually all that many people who could reliably place Nairn, Badenoch or Strathspey on the map. Furthermore, the uninformed casual listener will be left wondering whether we are talking about one constituency or four. I much prefer my constituencies to be either punchy (e.g. Broxtowe, Elmet) or poetic (Great Grimsby!, Old Bexley and Sidcup)
123, some friends and I managed to convince an acquaintance at college that Harlow new town was named after Jean Harlow.
But he was from Swindon ….
130. could be worse, in Germany one of the constituencies is called “Brandenburg an der Havel - Potsdam-Mittelmark I - Havelland III - Teltow-Fläming I”
132 cookie. I assure you the good people of Nairn do not consider themselves as Inverness !! And frankly who cares if the great unwashed don’t know their AyRShirE central from their East kiLBide and lesmahagOW.
135 - I’m quite happy to concede that Nairn is not Inverness, and does not consider itself such. But that doesn’t mean you have to mention it in the title of the constituency. Cheadle Hulme isn’t Cheadle, and nor is Bramhall, yet neither complains about Cheadle (only a small part of the seat) hogging the title of the seat. Northallerton isn’t Richmond, Retford isn’t Newark. All we need from the title of a seat is a vague geographical handle – rather than a descriptive essay - and if the name of the seat is fun to say, all the better.
134 - Excellent. Sometimes I wonder if the Germans are gently sending themselves up, and are waiting to see how long it takes the rest of us to get the joke.
I do think my constituency has a pretty awful name that isn’t even accurate. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale. Fair enough it includes the whole of Tweeddale but it contains the minority of the population of Dumfriesshire and hardly any of Clydesdale at all. It was suggested it could be called the ‘Five Dales’ which sounds a lot nicer.
136 cookie. “… vague geographical handle ..” !!!
What sort of local government babble is that ? No cookie, we can’t let the faceless wonders render our constituencies into bite size chunks of political commodity or next it’ll be numbers for convenience - Scotland North 7 - It simply will not do !!
137 Max. ” … it could be called the “Five Dales ..”
Sounds a bit James Herriot to me ….. Tweedale and Cows Udder Mastitis North …. Not sure really Max…..
138. Jack, you should do like we do in Italy. All constituencies are numbered and then officially named.
If someone don’t like the name, he could call it in a different way.
141 Andrea. No numbers pleassssssse !! I am not a number
138 - Here I agree with you Jack - I find ‘Scotland North 7′ even more dispiriting than Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey. As a rule of thumb if you find yourself having to put commas in the title of a constituency it’s too long. But that’s not to say we should lose all beauty and romance from the names. I find myself in agreement with Max here - Five dales is a rather splendid name. Or else ‘Hawick and Lockerbie’ - yes it misses out great chunks of the seat, but who wouldn’t aspire to represent such a nice, chunky-sounding constituency?
I also regret the increasing tendency to name city seats after compass points. Glasgow had some of the most captivating seat names in the country through the years - Govan, Pollock, Cathcart, Gorbals. Very sad that it is now redcued to mere directions that could describe any city.
141. Jack W, it’s easy: Scotland 1, Constituency 1 (Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale)
Scotland 1, Constituency 2 (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk)
If Max (or someone else) wants to call Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale only Tweeddale, he is free to do it. Then it will be a big chaos, but that’s another story (I don’t come from a country known for its efficiency).
142/143 cookie/Andrea. I don’t want it to be easy by numbers ! No numbers !!!!! . Constituencies are not numbers, nor points of the compass , they represent the embodiment of our democracy - names long and short - It’s just got to be better than Snookesville North !
144.”Constituencies are not numbers, nor points of the compass , they represent the embodiment of our democracy ”
Jack, democracy is made by numbers, elections are decided by numbers. It’s all numebrs, numbers, numbers!
I can’t get your trackback to work Mike. Anyway, Here is the relevant post:
Agent provocateurs within SNP ranks during the 70’s
http://scottish-independence.blogspot.com/2005/09/agent-provocateurs-within-snp-ranks.html
- “… Four files from the Home Office, the department responsible for national security, have been closed under the 30 year rule. One, however headed Scottish National Party: General from 1974-1976 has had it’s contents sealed for 50 years- a decision that can only be taken by the Lord Chancellor and a special advisory committee when a file contains… “
Back from helping out at Cathcart - word on the street is that the SNP have chosen the best candidate. Early days yet. I hear the SNP are getting a good reception in Livingston too. ( No I’m not related to Mike Watson)
147 - Hello Angela and welcome to the site . Take it you are connected to the SNP and we can make due allowance for that in your comments .
Yes I am connected but the atmosphere is very different from the General Election. Lots of local issues and the increase in gas prices mentioned by quite a few. Worry that Scottish Power will be taken over and the headquarters closed and moved out of Glasgow is a local concern (within the Constituency). If you did not see the Programme ‘Politics Scotland@ on the BBC last night go on line it is worth hearing the normally ‘Bash the Nats’ Journalist Alan Cochrane say that the SNP will do very well especially having chosen a well local candidate - she did not fight at the GE. It is too early to say.
149 - Hope you will keep us up to date with what goes on . The Cheadle byelection had a number of reports from troops on the ground during the campaign . It will be interesting to see how it goes especially if SNP or Lib Dem can establish themselves as to being the clear challenger to Labour or let Labour off by fighting each other . Always a bit quiet on here Friday/Saturday nights till the pubs close -LOL
The Liberals are not going to do well here. No General Election TV coverage that they had in May. The SNP had very little compared to what Kennedy’s party got. Local issues and antil-Blair feeling will decide and the Libs have no real organisation here. Still too early to say but I remain optimistic unlike in May when we knew were not going to do that well. The feedback so far is very encouraging.
151 - You may have known you were not going to do well in May but said publicly you were . Re the Lib Dems the lack of a strong local organisation is no bar to success in a byelection as it can and has been imported for the duration with great success .
The SNP has a differnt vote for a Scottish Parliament and remember (as we remind the public) the Liberals are part of the Government - this is not a normal Westminster by-election.
153 - Yes and there were many who said that the Lib Dems would suffer at the last GE in Scotland because of their involvement in the Government . Because these people were Scottish I believed them and was rather surprised that they were way of the mark .
By the way Angela it is easier to discuss on a current thread rather than an older one even if more relevant as current thraeds are at the top of the page .
I am sure Mike will have more threads on the forthcoming byelections but in any case sometimes threads go way off topic especially when Jack W gets going . LOL
154 Mark. Preposterous