Will Charles have calmed the doubters?
September 22nd, 2005
-
How will tonight’s by-elections go?
In the immediate aftermath of last year’s Lib Dem conference the party’s poll ratings soared to the dizzy heights of 29% - a point ahead of the Tories and just 3 points behind Labour. The share was never to get anywhere near that again and on May 5th 22.7% of the electorate cast their votes for Charles Kennedy’s party.
The dashed expectations were surely one of the causes of the widespread view in Blackpool this week that in spite of the seat gains off Labour they could have done better. Charles’s 2004 rhetoric that they would replace the Tories as the official opposition looked a bit sick.
-
Given the less than postive nature of the media coverage this week we doubt whether they’ll get anywhere near to the September 2004 ratings in the new round of polls which comes out in the next few days.
But there’s another test of political trends that we can follow - the local council by-elections that take place almost every Thursday throughout the year. In response to special requests we are experimenting with a regular Thursday evening piece that, hopefully, will be a good introduction to a discussion on the results as they come out.
Tonight there are three local contests with significant Lib Dem interest.
Will there be any clues about the Lib Dem leadership from these results? The polls close at 9pm.
MessageSpace Advertising
In response to special requests we are experimenting with a regular Thursday evening piece that, hopefully, will be a good introduction to a discussion on the results as they come out.
I think this is a really good idea. Well done to whoever suggested it and to PB.com for implementing it.
Mike - the Conservatives.com by election list differs from the ALDC one - is this because they only include ones they are fighting?
e.g. this week ALDC doesn’t have the Arun election, next week it doesn’t have the Shepway one but the Conservatives don’t have the Salford one.
Maybe you need to take the Venn sum of the two…?
Andy 2. Fair point - have you got the URL?
I’m not sure if you have to be logged in
If so I can email it to you if it helps? It goes into more detail about prior reults than the ALDC one.
In case no one else has picked this up, a Labour Councillor in Newham has defected to the Tories. He is Michael Law, who represents Royal Docks. This is the second recent defection to hit the Newham Labour group and the new political make-up of Newham Council is:
Labour 57 Conservative 1 Respect 1 Christian People’s Alliance 1.
So not much of a dent in the Labour majority then….
5. Heaven rejoices when a sinner repenteth…. On Charlie Kennedy’s performance, I think that it is instructive that the loudest cheers came when he attacked half his own party. Followed of course by the easy option when you are in trouble, Bash Bush!!! I think the problem is that the Lib Dems are not an alternative to New Labour but a pastiche of New Labour. Kennedy’s whole speech was about trying to reconcile the irreconcilable and triangulate his way out of a horrid mess. He only just succeeded by pushing the right (or should that be left!) buttons…
I thought the loudest cheers came when he attacked the Conservative Party and the conservative Blairite Party, and said there was no way that the Lib Dems would be a third conservative party.
And attacking Bush…? Well, let´s wait and see whether the leaders of the Labour and Conservative Parties do the same at their conferences…. I rather doubt it.
7. ‘I thought the loudest cheers came when he attacked the Conservative Party and the conservative Blairite Party, and said there was no way that the Lib Dems would be a third conservative party.’ Yes - a blatant attack on Steve Webb, Mark Oaten et al. It is now pretty clear that the Lib Dems electoral strategy is to hang around on the left of the political spectrum hoping it becomes popular. Meanwhile they face a concerted squeeze on their support at the next election from a Labour base that will be more inclined to vote for Brown than they were Blair and a Conservative party that will be revived come next time round. The Lib Dems stand to lose a quarter of their seats if their support returns to 2001 levels at the next election.
7. ‘I thought the loudest cheers came when he attacked the Conservative Party and the conservative Blairite Party, and said there was no way that the Lib Dems would be a third conservative party.’ Yes - a blatant attack on Steve Webb, Mark Oaten et al. It is now pretty clear that the Lib Dems electoral strategy is to hang around on the left of the political spectrum hoping it becomes popular. Meanwhile they face a concerted squeeze on their support at the next election from a Labour base that will be more inclined to vote for Brown than they were Blair and a Conservative party that will be revived come next time round. The Lib Dems stand to lose a quarter of their seats if their support returns to 2001 levels at the next election.
7. ‘I thought the loudest cheers came when he attacked the Conservative Party and the conservative Blairite Party, and said there was no way that the Lib Dems would be a third conservative party.’ Yes - a blatant attack on Steve Webb, Mark Oaten et al. It is now pretty clear that the Lib Dems electoral strategy is to hang around on the left of the political spectrum hoping it becomes popular. Meanwhile they face a concerted squeeze on their support at the next election from a Labour base that will be more inclined to vote for Brown than they were Blair and a Conservative party that will be revived come next time round. The Lib Dems stand to lose a quarter of their seats if their support returns to 2001 levels at the next election.
We can only hope Xenon - but I think it is a little early to say yet.
Wishful thinking, Xenon. Webb, Oaten et al have - I think - little interest in the Conservative Party and what it stands for.
What are you intending to revive the Tory party with, anyway? Throwing money at the electorate didn´t work all that well last time……
11. Perhaps, we can only that they keep giving Teather a platform, I have just seen highlights of her speech earlier in the week. She looked like a really bad sixth form debating student and made a right horlicks of it.. Oh well at least she provides amusement!
The string is labelled ” Will Charles have calmed the doubters”
The answer is self evident…long may he reign !
As somebody who requested it, Thanks for this thread Mike, I’m sure it’ll help “tidy-up” other threads and give us electionaholics something to go on! Any results out yet?
Well, ToryBoy, it seems that at long last we are in agreement about something! I thought Charles Kennedy was very good too!
These local election results seem to be taking a long time to come out. Can it be that there were high turnouts?
15/16. It’s difficult to find local by-elections results on Thursday night. Council websites and local newspapers usually update them on Friday morning.
16. Doubt it..most of the local by-election counts I have attended in recent years are over in less than an hour.
Stapleford SE Town Council: LibDems 52% (-6), Labour 26% (+2), Conservatives 21% (+4). This is the second strongest LibDem ward. The comparison is with 2003, a good year for the LibDems (they got a third of the council seats that year). Not sure about turnout - a bit over 20%, I think. As in last month’s Stapleford borough election, the Tories were making a serious effort where they’d not bothered before. The whole thing was a bit obscure, as the (LibDem) council decided not to send out polling cards despite the polling stations having moved, so we kept encountering voters who either didn’t know the election was happening or had gone to the wrong place. My general impression on the doorstep was that almost nobody had changed their votes since the GE.
It would have taken a swing of 18% for Labour to win the Stapleford by-election, so I think the LibDems will be pleased with a net 4% swing to Labour and an overall swing of 6% against them. However, it doesn’t bode well for them strategically in the region if the Tories start shaving off 4-5% of their vote.
Just checking, Nick (and filling in the time…..)
You said:
“The whole thing was a bit obscure, as the (LibDem) council decided not to send out polling cards despite the polling stations having moved…”
Which council is that? I had the impression that there were no Lib Dem-run district councils in Notts…. Am I wrong?
If the responsible electoral authority is Broxtowe Council, I think it is currently No Overall Control, with the Labour group being the largest one.
So who precisely would have been responsible for deciding not to send out polling cards?
Apart, of course, from the fact that IIRC polling cards are not usually sent out for parish council elections…..
21/22: No, the council in question is Stapleford Town Council (the equivalent of a parish council), and it’s almost entirely composed of LibDems (it’s that evil FPTP system, you see). Polling cards would have been provided by the borough council’s Electoral Services department, but the decision not to ask for them was taken by the parish council. Polling cards have IIRC been sent out for every previous parish and town election that I’ve seen in Broxtowe, though in some parishes there is no party contest.
Let nobody say we don’t debate the finer points of politics here.
Hazarding a guess, then, Nick, I would suppose that they decided to try to save ratepayers´ (sorry, counciltaxpayers´) money. Presumably, they are hard pressed by Labour and Tory propaganda about “extravagant councillors” etc etc.
On the other hand, isn´t it marvellous when we (Lib Dems and sensible reformist Labour MPs) can point to FPTP and show how unfair it is to Tories….. (and - hm, hm,… to Labour as well). What - in proportional terms - ought to be the composition of Stapleford Town Council?
There seems to be no news from Eton Wick so far, so presumably not a very interesting result there (ie: Labour hold or Tory gain?????).
This was the only Labour-held seat in the Windsor & Maidenhead UA, and was gained by Labour last time in a straight fight with the Tories. There was not a Lib Dem candidate then, as part of their overall strategy to win where they had a decent chance, and leave it to Independents and others elsewhere. The Council is currently, of course, Lib Dem run.
The ward consists in large measure of Council housing stock (or former Council house stock). There is little love there for the Tories - so it will be interesting to see the result of this election, now that there is a Lib Dem candidate too. The Borough Council has improved its performance beyond imagination over the last two years.
On the other hand, Mike, I don´t think the result (whatever it may be) will be highly indicative of how well - or otherwise - Charles Kennedy is doing.
Mike, thanks for taking up the by-election idea.
I’ll take the national theme that you begin your article with. As a rule all parties reach a peak just after their party conference - depending, of course, on how good the coverage is.
I for one spent a while trying to predict what would happen as the election approached last time. No doubt this is coloured by hindsight, but one version of what I thought would happen was this. The Lib Dems had been the beneficiaries of Labour’s mid-term blues, and would therefore lose support in the year or so before the election; but that during the campaign, as usual, extra media coverage would raise the Lib Dem vote. At whose expense that would come, I couldn’t work out, but probably Labour.
If that analysis was correct, the Lib Dems only performed marginally worse than might have been expected. The Lib Dems were never going to overtake the Tories in 2005, and only the most wildly partisan Lib Dems thought they would (I did meet one who thought they’d make it to government!)
All parties are over-optimistic most of the time. Their leaders feel obliged to talk up their chances. Nonetheless, my memory is not of Lib Dems overtaking the Tories in 2005, but sometime.
For me, one lesson of the last election is that the Lib Dems will now take seats primarily off Labour (if anyone of course) as long as Labour remain in government.
Windsor and Maidenhead by election 22.9.05
According to the council web site result a Conservative gain.
No Labour councillors left. Do not know the figures yet, looks like lib dem intervention may have assisted this result, but need to wait and see.
No news on the East Devon elections yet
eton wick results - Con 405 Lab 250 Ind 115 Lib Dem 59. Swing Lab to Con since 2003 c 20%, Tory vote up 11%. Once again the Lib Dems deliver the Tories a seat ha ha
‘eton wick results - Con 405 Lab 250 Ind 115 Lib Dem 59. Swing Lab to Con since 2003 c 20%, Tory vote up 11%. Once again the Lib Dems deliver the Tories a seat ha ha ‘ - How so assuming that all the Lib Dems votes came from Labour, and you eliminate the Lib Dems you still get a Tory win. In fact you have to have a straight fight between Labour and Conservative with all the votes from the Independent and the Libs going to Labour (highly unlikely) to get Labour scraping it.
29. I was being sarcastic!!!!
30. Oh I see…
What is this story on the front page of the Times all about?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1793720,00.html
32. Looks like a good old fashioned sleaze story to me. Now the interesting thing is where did the story come from, inside the Lib Dems or outside? Could it be one of the anti-Kennedy Lib Dems knocking his/her leaders speech off the front page? It’s a thought….
I find the comments of the bloke who apparently gave the donation rather amusing:
“Michael Brown, the owner of the company, told The Times yesterday that he felt “totally let down” by the party.
He said it had failed to make more than cursory checks before taking his company’s money. “If the people who handled my donation were elected to run the economy, I would not be happy — it would be disastrous.””
and
“Mr Brown said he would be “delighted” if the party was ordered by the Electoral Commission to repay the money because it would enable him to give more to his charitable foundation.
“
Makes one wonder why on earth he gave them the money in the first place!
34. I am just surprised it took him so long to realise that the Lib Dems would be a disaster……
34 etc… Maybe he was trying to do a Bernie Ecclestone but gave the money to the wrong party by mistake…
36. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch of people though…..
Interesting column in the Daily Mail today talking about the problems that could face the tories if the Young Turks win control. I never knew that Oaten wanted national service re-introducing!
I think that the best thing for the Conservatives is for Kennedy to stay in and keep floating and hope that the activists stay as left wing as possible. The tories then need to steal ideas from the young turks and squeeze them from the landscape.
I was confident the Lib Dems would stay left, but now I am not sure. What do people think?
Just phoned East Devon District Council for results - and they are very bad.
Seaton. Con 1055, Lib Dem 925. Con gain - majority of 130
Sidmouth Town, Con 895, Lib Dem 184, Indp 136, Labour 64. Con hold - majority of 711.
What went wrong for us ? Seaton should have been a comfortable hold on previous figures and didn’t we do really well in a Sidmouth by-election earlier this year?
39 - Maybe a silly suggestion - but perhaps all the activists for the seats were in Blackpool instead of treading the streets…
40. Or maybe the West Country is waking up to how useless the Lib Dems actually are….
39 - Au contraire :), I think they were rather pleasing! But the biggest smile was reserved for the Eton Wick gain. And, we go straight over to John13 @25 for his generous congratulations and to admire the prescience of his posting there
The Lib Dems must perhaps learn that they have no god-given rights to hold seats, just like any other party. As a west country resident however I do sense that people down here increasingly see the Lib Dems as the allies of a Labour government they dislike intensely….
39/41 - I don’t think one result tells us anything. It seems in some of the more rural local authorities you do get these big swings and seats changing hands you wouldn’t expect. The personality of the candidates is probably at least as important as party politics.
Regarding the Times story. The Lib Dems are being told in no uncertain terms that their job is to attack Conservatives in places where Labour cannot. Which is what the enobled and promoted Ashdown did to Blair’s instruction
Look at the by line it is Tom Baldwin, best mate of Ali Campbell, neighbour of Tim Allen and the source of any number of smear stories against real or imagined enemies of Blair.
Baldwin took an incredible amount of stick when his John Humphreys smear started to unravel just two weeks ago.
Obviously Murdoch remains happy with his (sorry Government)policy on Europe, and his poodles (sorry fearless journalists) are on hand to punish anyone who moves from the path of righteousness.
38 James M. If the Lib Dems have any sense ?!?! they’ll tack to the right on economic issues whilst maintaning a strong hold on liberal social issues. However the hold of the old guard on high tax and spend issues remains strong.
44 Max. Correct. One local by election gain hardly presages a West Country Tory revival.
BTW Max there’s a full page interview with George Burley in the Indy today.
By Chris Mead, PA Elections Editor
Liberal Democrats slumped amid divisions highlighted at their Blackpool conference as Tories celebrated two council by-election gains.
Conservative candidate James Knight won at Seaton, East Devon District.
Labour also suffered, losing its only seat on Windsor and Maidenhead Royal Borough in a landslide to Tory Stephen Smith. However the party had gained representation at Castle Point Borough, Essex earlier this month.
Liberal Democrats slipped against Labour which easily defended a semi-marginal at Whiston South, Knowsley Borough, Merseyside.
Their vote was also slashed in another East Devon by-election at Sidmouth Town, compared with an earlier contest in January.
RESULTS:
Arun District - Felpham East: C 492, Lib Dem 267, Lab 86. (May 2003 - Two seats C 712, 602, Ind 571, Lab 172, 166). C hold. Swing 6.5% Lab to C.
East Devon District - Seaton: C 1055, Lib Dem 925. (May 2003 - Three seats Lib Dem 1455, 1125, 1024, C 943, 938, 857, Ind 404, Lab 181). C gain from Lib Dem. Swing 8.6% Lib Dem to C.
East Devon District - Sidmouth Town: C 895, Lib Dem 184, Ind 136, Lab 64. (May 2003 - Three seats C 1700, 1381, 1231, Lab 997; January 27 2005 by-election - C 1147, Lib Dem 702, Lab 141). C hold. Swing 23.5% Lab to C.
Knowsley Borough - Whiston South: Lab 555, Lib Dem 383, C 103. (June 2004 - Lab 966, 932, 901, Lib Dem 771, 654). Swing 1.5% Lib Dem to Lab.
Windsor and Maidenhead Royal Borough - Eton Wick: C 405, Lab 250, Ind 115, Lib Dem 59. (May 2003 - Lab 484, C 286). C gain from Lab. Swing 22.2% Lab to C.
end
43 Fred. I rather think the GE results in the West Country prove you wrong, unless since which time the Lib Dems have proposed a prohibition on cider and that production of clotted cream and Cornish pasties as illegal.
I love the name of the ward that’s being contested in Winchester next week - Oliver’s Battery & Badger’s Farm.
49. Yes it is a good one isn’t it…..
46 - Still not enough to convince me to buy that appaling left-wing rag! More of a Telegraph man myself.
Interestingly our much loved Chairman Lord Foulkes is said to be considering standing on the ‘list’ for the South of Scotland having previously been rumoured to be standing in the Lothians. Labour must either think they can pick up an additional list seat or are worried about losing another constituency.
Good Morning All - Good to have this new thread on council byelections and hope it will be a regular item . Yes good results for the Conservatives this week . Reflects how things can vary from week to week when kast weeks were good for the Lib Dems . The Devon results do not quite justify xenon ill thought remarks . East Devon covers the Parliamentary seats of East Devon and Tiverton and are 2 of the 3 remaining safe Conservative areas in Devon . A byelection last week in North Devon showed a large swing to the Lib Dems . As Max correctly says in rural seats the candidate is often more important than the Party label .
The Eton Wick result is perhaps more interesting in why Labour won this ward in 2003 rather than why the Conservatives won it this time .
The Knowsley result is illustrative of the tricky calculation of swing when the previous result was based on a multi member ward . In 2004 . Do you take the highest vote each party got last time or the average and what effect does it have that the Lib Dems only had 2 candidates to Labour’s 3 .
Generally in low turnout byelections the swing does not reflect anyone actually changing their vote from one party to another but reflects differential turnout amongst parties supporters .
48. After the election I heard quite a few people around here saying they regretted voting Lib Dem as it had proved pointless - they wanted Blair & co out and mainly plumped for the Lib Dems a) because they weren’t sure about Michael Howard and b) because they believed the polls/BBC line that suggested the Tories were going to have a very poor result. Instead of Blair being dumped, the divided opposition vote just let him stay in office. One person in my village actually said ‘I’d have voted for Mr.Letwin if I’d known he was going to win’ (!!!)
53 - But I expect many people wish that they had not voted for Letwin after his post election desertion of his electorate to take up a lucrative banking career .
54. You obviously have little connection with the real world…he had that career before he became shadow chancellor and no-one cared about then, nor do they now…except Lib Dem mudslingers of course who have always resorted to pathetic personal abuse when trying to make progress in this area
55 - Then why was he not honest and tell the voters that he was planning to only represent them part time before the GE instead of waiting till he was re-elected . No need to answer because we know it - he would have lost .
56. As I said…pathetic personal abuse we have been listening to this stuff for 20 years…same tired old rubbish was trotted out when Jim Spicer was MP here because for part of that time he was a euro-MP too…’he’s a part-timer’ screamed the local yellow peril…having failed with that one they then tried to claim he was involved in dishonest property deals. Give it a rest.
Mark - your point is based on the premise that people would not like an MP who actually wants to sample the real world too. I am more than happy for MPs to have other roles, we have too many politicians, making too many laws for too long in the calender year. But then again we might like 600 Charlie Kennedy’s - career politicians!
In addition to which his banking connections were well known in 1997 and 2001 so why didn’t he lose then?
58 - We had a good debate on this topic a few month’s ago and I accept that experience in other fields is important to help MPs do their jobs better but that is not the same as doing another job at the same time and claiming the full salary as an MP when he is not doing a full time’s work . As you very well know it would not be acceptable or tolerated in any company for an employee to claim his full salary or wage but work for someone else part of the time .
Fred , you did not answer my question because we both know that if he had been honest he would have lost .
59 - Alec , Banking connections and taking employment from a bank at the same time as you are an MP are not the same thing .
Give Oliver a break. He has continued to work for the bank throughout his parliamentary career on a part time basis, only giving it up when there was a perceived conflict of interest with his role as Shadow Chancellor. He has never hidden this connnection/job and it is perfectly reasonable for him to revert to the arrangement now he has the less conflicted DEFRA role.
Letwin is not the only MP with a job outside politics. For ex. Bob Marshall Andrews is still practicing as a lawyer. The Medway’s tories attacked him during the campaign (with misleading leflets) becuase, according to them, an MP shouldn’t have a job outside politics.
58/59 James/alec. I think Mark’s points are well made. It’s not that Letwin’s banking interests were not known, but that now his parliamenrary duties appears less prominent and primary than his banking interests.
51 Max. The Burley article is online here. Force yourself
http://sport.independent.co.uk/football/scotland/article314431.ece
BTW Don’t you read the Scotsman ?? or The Daily Jacobite !!
Wouldn’t it be possible to start another thread called Inter-Party Bickering on which party supporters could vent their spleen on their opponents, leaving the other threads for purist psephological comment?
I agree Mark makes some good points, but I happen to believe that being a MP is a slightly different case to any other job. It is a job that in many ways you perform better when you have life experience and other job experience as well.
Second, surely the people of Dorset would have heard about his banking links through the press - so to think they were all obvilious seems a little unrealistic to me.
Third, is the Conservatives in Medway were using that argument in Medway they were obviously struggling to defeat Andrews. To me it is a weak argument.
Lol. Would you rather have a “fulltime MP” who devotes a dozen hours a week to his constituents or a “part-time MP” who does twice as much?
64 chrismoore. Sounds a bit dull to me !! The site is like a good newspaper with tasty morsels on every page. As the most heavyweight and academic of posters I enjoy Nualas wit and John O’s lacklustre doorstep contributions
66. Marshall Andrews was very angry: in his speech after the declaration he refused to thank the tory candidate (he even refused to name him, he called him “that particular individual” or something like this).
67. George Gallowy is a fulltime MP, but it seems he spends half of his time travelling around the world making speaking tours with Jane Fonda.
65 - See you point Chris but part of the fun and success of this site is the way threads take off in unexpected directions into interesting often non-political topics .
62 - Are you really saying Letwin never intended to serve his constituents on a full time basis .
68-”As the most heavyweight of posters ”
JAck, do you mean you’re a bit fat?
69 - That’s not fair, Andrea. I was under the understanding that Jane Fonda has thought twice about associating with him
70 Andrea. Certainly not. It’s Tabbers that scoffed all the pies !!
The level of sour grapes from the Lib Dems over their dismal failure to win West Dorset is quite startling…but not nearly as startling as the (for us blues) hilarious infighting that has ensued among the local Lib Dems. The local councillors and the PPC hurled abuse at each other after the result, with an especially choice quote being that the PPC ‘doesn’t listen, shows no respect for colleagues and does so much to further her own cause at the expense of the team as a whole’. This perhaps confirms my suspicion that as long as there is someone to sling mud at, the Lib Dems are happy - even if it’s their own side.
OOer last post disappeared into ether or spam filter so reword it
65 - I see your point Chris but a lot of the fun and success of this site is the way threads go into unexpected even non-political directions with animated debates .
In deference to you though , I will leave poor Oliver alone LOL salaries
51 - I do read the Scotsman. Its an interesting paper - its fairly right-wing editorially but without being particularly party political. The Herald OTOH and the Sunday Herald in particular are very Left wing and funnily enough have quite a few journalists with links to the Beeb! Its very much the paper of Scotland’s left-wing establishment. I also quite like the Sunday Post but only for ‘Oor Wullie’ and ‘The Broons’!
65. Try Anthony Well’s site…this one has always been about point scoring
71- I think he dumped Jane when he crossed the border to continue his tour in Canada. Now I’m a bit afraid he’ll show up somewhere in Italy too.
On Charlie Kennedy’s performance, I think that it is instructive that the loudest cheers came when he attacked half his own party.
–
I was in the hall and the above statement isn’t true.
Dave
78. In what sense is it not true?
76 fred. I think that’s a cheap shot against the site. It’s certainly true that there is point scoring on here (of which you have contributed today) but there is also a heathy balance of analysis, insight, inside information and a little wit.
I’m aware that this site is well read in political and media circles and is not credited often enough by hacks too lazy to research articles or have an original thought themselves.
I would also think that it’s the British political analysis site with the most hits and comments daily.
80-”I’m aware that this site is well read in political and media circles and is not credited often enough by hacks too lazy to research articles or have an original thought themselves.”
Hopefully the Gorgon of the Soke is not reading my comments
80. You appear to gave got the wrong end of the stick…I wasn’t criticising the site at all…I love it exactly because it is such a good forum for the sort of trenchant stuff we’ve put up today…
In what sense is it not true?
–
In the sense that the loudest cheers came when he attacked Blair for being too close to Bush.
Dave
65/70: No, fred, this site hasn’t usually had as partisan a tone as you’ve adopted (and I like Oliver Letwin and see no reason to doubt that he’s still doing a good job as a constituency MP).
A couple of very good Tory results there! Well out of line with current polls - we’ll see if they’re harbingers or blips…
80 - Totally agree , Jack , Anthony Well’s site also has interesting topics but seldom do the threads reach 20 responses . If you look back to when this site started it too attracted not many contributors but as you rightly say it is now the most popular and important site for daily political comment .
It has the right mix of interesting threads , comments both informed and partisan , serious and light-hearted to keep people interested and wanting to add their contributing views .
83. Possibly but that was a sign of despair if he needs to continually bash George Bush to raise applause. At the end of the Speech no one knows what a Lib Dem govt. would do because everyone knows it is never going to happen…
ooer what is going on , pressed the button to post and got message saying slow down cowboy you posted less than 10 seconds ago but no post appeared - ?????
82 fred. Sorry if I misunderstood your 76, but I found it difficult to interpret otherwise.
81 Andrea. She’s on your case !!
BTW there’s a good comment in the “Times” today to the effect that the Tory leadership contest has lasted longer than most post war Italian governments .
85 - I don’t think that that’s a particularly fair comment; as the Leader of the Liberal party I would be disappointed if he didn’t comment on the illiberal human rights abuses (Guantanamo and Abu Graib) by the worlds largest country, and the links with the current Prime Minister.
88. His main attack on Bush was on the environment, which would be reasonable if it was also mentioned that Bush has put more funds into fossil fuel replacement than any other world leader to date.
86 Mark. You’re clearly suffering from premature electulation !!
Isn’t Abu Graib last year’s conference speech?
87.”BTW there’s a good comment in the “Times” today to the effect that the Tory leadership contest has lasted longer than most post war Italian governments . ”
It’s not fair. In this Parliament we only had 2 governments and led by the same man. Between 1996 and 2001, we had 4 governments. We’re improving!
88 - Why should you expect a fair comment from xenon or some of the other Conservative posters on here . You should instead expect partisanship bias and mudslinging LOL
90- Jack, please! This issue could lead us to very disturbing revelations….
Just on the topic of MP’s and previous/existing jobs it does concern me slightly that MP’s come from what seems like a fairly small pool of job types. There do seem to be a disproportionate number of lawyers, teachers/lecturers and career politicians. I can’t help feeling that the HofC would benefit from a few more accountants!
95 Max
…….. and Scottish aristos !!!
96. There’s only one Scottish aristo, so I suppose they’re over-represented.
You’ve a couple of nurses, some doctors, an actress and trade unionists (is this a job?) too.
97 - at least two scottish aristos i think.
93. Unfairness, Bias, mudslinging and partisan behaviour are not the preserve of Conservatives, certainly if the majority of threads here are examined uncritically.
97/98 - Of course if you consider the other place too…
95 - accountants have far to much control over government as it is. I don’t see why we want them in Parliament as well!
98. who’s the second (other than Thurso)?
Ancram is a Scottish aristo isn’t he, albeit in an English seat?
103- I’ve completely forgotten about him, but you’re right
Somebody asked about the former Labour councillor in Eton Wick, and how he came to be elected in the first place.
Eton Wick is a small strangely insular community in the middle of the Windsor-Maidenhead-Slough triangle. It used regularly to return a Tory councillor. Mark Olney was a local man, well-known and popular, so it was not a complete surprise that he should have won in a straight fight with a Tory candidate in 2003.
I suspect that in this byelection following his resignation from the Council, the Tories put up a local person, while the Labour and Lib Dem candidates came from all of two miles away, in Windsor.
It is curious and striking that, once again, the Royal Borough of Windsor & Maidenhead is a Labour-free zone…..
Since the death of his father in 2004, Michael Andrew Foster Jude Kerr, formerly given the courtesy title of Earl of Ancram, and known in public life as Michael Ancram, has become the 13th Marquis of Lothian.
103/104 Andrea/book value. Also Sir Robert Smith Bt. And until the last GE Sir Thomas Dalyell of the Binns Bt.
80. I hope Edward Leigh doesn’t read it. He’ll be gunning to have me chucked out the party.
108 woody. The new right wing Lib Dem’s will have you
107. Jack, was the Campaign Group aware that Thomas Dalyell was an aristo? Was Dennis Skinner able to accept the fact?
109. In today’s Guardian an anonymous Libdem activist is quoted as descrbing the rightwing of Libdesm as “careerists”
110 - shocking revelations from within the Liberal Democrat Party. They have career politicians within their mix! Sums up the problem really, doesn’t it?
111. Yeah fancy anyone wanting to make a career in politics….
It’s day four and delegates are digesting the consequences of a couple of big votes that went against the party leadership on Monday and Tuesday. The weather is holding up, but the party’s mood is less sunny now than people expected at the start.
“Modernisers on the right of the party are looking particularly depressed. They say the rejection of plans to privatise parts of the post office and cap EU spending have set the party back - no one seems to have put forward alternative plans and they say the party is simply avoiding debate.
“The left of the party - Lib Dems hate talk of left-right splits but it applies in this case - is more upbeat. They say they are fighting to preserve the party’s values against careerists who want to turn it into a more successful version of the Tory party. They think they have gained ground this week against people like the shadow chancellor, Vincent Cable.
“That’s not necessarily the case - Cable doesn’t look like giving up easily and he made by far the best speech of the conference. He’s also surrounded by some pretty astute younger MPs.
“All this leaves open a big question, of course - what does Charles Kennedy think? He backed plans for the post office sell-off and before the conference said the vote would show how the party was eager to define itself with new policies, and not just things like Iraq. Now party spinners are trying to play down the vote, but the damage has been done.
“So far Kennedy has just emphasised his consensual style of leadership, but his MPs are getting jittery. There’s been talk of how long he might stay and who might replace him. That sort of talk isn’t new but everyone thinks the party leader has a job on his hands tomorrow when he addresses the conference. If he doesn’t try to set a direction - and that’s not his style - he could be in trouble.
“Meanwhile he spent this morning driving a tram slowly along the Blackpool sea front while delegates, who seem quite pleased with themselves after the post office vote, are spending the day doing what they like best - endlessly debating constitutional reform and the environment. Then, after hearing Mr Kennedy tomorrow everyone gets to go home.”
John 13, does Eton Wick contain the village of Eton, and Eton College?
110 Andrea. I think Tam was regarded as in the Benn mould ! Which brings to mind Hilary second son of the former Viscount Stansgate ! so Hilary is the Right Honourable and Honourable Hilary Benn !!
109. Tabbers stiring again !!
Alex, are there any motions this year about votes for goldfish, and banning the sale of prisoners at fairgrounds?
113. Alex, I was referring to that article.
Now I’m not so sure if it was in the Guardian or somewhere else.
116 Sean. What at the Tory party conference - shocking !!
“They say they are fighting to preserve the party’s values against careerists”
Now if that doesn’t reek of ‘fundis’ v ‘realos’ then I don’t know what does.
117 - Guardian “backbencher” column. Just a gossip column really.
120- In the good old days, the “backbencher” column was full of info about the Gorgon of the Soke and her friend.
115. On aristos in the Commons Richard Needham the Tory MP who left the HoC in 97 holds several Irish peerages the senior of which is the Earldom of Kilmorey (pronounced Kilmurry). He is also splendidly The Heriditory Abbot of the exempt Jurisdiction of Mourne and Newry !! There’s feudalism for you.
116/118 - Goldfish welfare is a serious issue! Few of you will remember a particularly traumatic summer in West Linton. During Whipman week (all towns and villages in the Borders have something similar but with various names) a fair came to the village where you could win a gold-fish by throwing a ball into a glass jar. Unfortunately all of them died within a month of each other. This was extremely upsetting for a 10 year old. Allthough I did get over it once I was bought a toy!
119. Chrisco, I suppose you mean that the careerists are the fundis’, while people who want to preserve the party’s values are the ‘realos’
123. if a motion about goldfishes is presented at the tory conferemce, we’ll know who is the responsible!
99 - But xenon as most of the posters on here are biased towards one party or another there is noone except perhaps Andrea who can examine the posts uncritically .
For those Conservatives saying in the last few days that David Laws is more suited to be in their party , the Guardian quotes him as saying CK’s speech was excellent .
125.”there is noone except perhaps Andrea who can examine the posts uncritically .”
I doubt it, Mark. I think I’m a bit too critical with all parties.
123 Max. It was clearly a Lib Dem fair selling you a “false prospectus” and tempting you with gold(fishy) bowl charts
Are you sure you didn’t buy an abacus ??
125. ‘the Guardian quotes him as saying CK’s speech was excellent .’ He would say that, he knows that being openly disloyal is not a sensible career strategy…
David Laws is not suited to our party. His remarks on Question Time last night merely showed us that he is left wing like the rest of the Liberal Party.
I agree with you Nuala , the Conservative party is far too right wing for David Laws and the majority of the electorate .
129. I saw that and can see what you mean… Did anyone see Teather tying herself in knots failing to explain what Liberalism was on This Week? It was absolutely hilarious…
127 - I wouldn’t put anything past them Jack! I never had the pleasure of owning an abaccus but then I never have been very good with numbers. Maths was about my worst subject at school! My ex-MP Michale Moore is a C.A, but he’s the only one in the Commons. I’m telling you we need more!!!
132. So you want more C.A. and then what other type of professions do you want?
129 - Nuala, I see you confuse liberalism with left and right notions like so many in your party
132 - mathematical ability and accounting make uneasy bedfellows - just ask Enron!
130 Mark. You’ll get your wrists slapped for that one !
Mr Senior, Mr Tabman and Mr W, the unholy triumvirate of socialism masquerading as something else. Mr Senior the Conservative Party is presently not too right wing for some 10% more of the electorate than the shambles that your Mr Kennedy laughingly presides over. I only hope he is not deposed, so inept is his “leadership”. Mr Tabman as a graduate in politics I thank you not to lecture me in political definitions. And once again Mr W you confuse your contributions with something amusing.
136-”Mr Tabman and Mr W, the unholy triumvirate of socialism masquerading as something else”
As a socialist, I can garantee that guarantee that none of them is a socialist, especially Mr Tabman!!
133 - I was being a bit facesious. But I would like to see more doctors, nurses, policemen, firemen, people from the voluntary sector, clerics etc.
138- You’ve some nurses: I believe both Laura Moffat and Ann Keen were nurses.
Policemen and firemen aren’t probably represented.
Clerics? well, Chris Bryant was a Vicar. Does he count?
136. And once again Ms Nuala you contribute to your confusion …. something amusing ???
136 - Nuala, your posting style rather reminds me of another female Tory contributor, now sadly no longer a visitor. You’ve not ever come across someone called Sarah J in your travels have you?
137 - Andrea, one of my best friends is a socialist! Or at least he was, before he went to work for the Daily Mail
139 - Jim Fitzpatrick was a fireman.
109. That’s a shocking idea. The Lib Dems will be splitting in a few years anyway.
143. How do you figure that they will be splitting?
Mr W I can assure there is no confusion in my mind. It is firmly made up as to the worth of your intellect and comedy talent. Let us say simply that they are worth roughly the same as Charles Kennedy’s skills as a ruthless leader.
139 - David Cairns was a Catholic Priest. I think an act had to be passed prior to 2001 to allow former members of the clergy to be MP’s.
142. so, we’ve too find a policeman now!
141. Many labourites were socialists too before St Tony’s arrival!
131. I saw that. Did you see Abbot and Portillos faces as she was talking. Very patronising (and funny).
138. We’ve got Dr Fox. What more do you want? I agree it would be better to have a more cross range of candidates but I wouldn’t want to go down a route simular to the women only shortlists that the Labour party have.
144. Just from a thread the other day when there were left/right arguements at the Lib Dem conference. Probably won’t happen but you never know.
I think one of the Manchester Mps was a taxi driver.
Tabman @141 - I rather think Sarah J - she of many personae - would classify the inestimable Sir Malcolm Rifkind as joining the unholy cauldron of socialists
We must remind BV about the Festive Gathering of the pb.com ‘community’ (sic). Rik charmed us all last time, and I feel Nuala and Jack W can commune with the loving cup. The latter mighy perhaps take the precaution of bringing s spare set of dry sporrans…
…Sophia is keeping rather quiet though
150 - we thought it might be easier to find a venue (and space in diaries) if we go for a belated New Year event. Put 14th January 2006 in your diaries.
I hope Jack will be there to offer Nuala a wee dram.
148 - Portillo did have a sense of lofty disdain etched all over him. Nothing new there…
142. Funnily enough I was looking at Jim Firzpatrick’s website last night. It is very swish, but you have to really look very hard to find out that he is a Labour MP - the only hint on the main page is the red swish on the black background, a la the A-Team’s van.
http://www.jimfitzpatrickmp.co.uk/
His neighbour, Lyn Brown’s website, however, is anything but swish. In fact I’d say it’s a wee bit scary…
http://www.lynbrown.org.uk/
151 - are we using the Scottish or English meaning of the word ‘wee’?
Sorry, a weak joke but Jack’s gobstopper picture on the other thread has left me traumatised for the time being.
153 - She does have organ stop eyes doesn’t she….
153. Jim Firzpatrick’s website is depressing (all that balck).
MPs should avoid picture galleries in their websites: they always seem to have strange photos.
153 - Oh my, I see what you mean. Talk about me, me, me.
But as she was a Tawny Owl (that should get Andrea heaving with ecstasy) we can forgive her almost anything….
Re 114. No, Eton Wick is quite separate from Eton Town. The latter, being a bit on the small side, is now part of the Eton & Castle Ward which is, of course ::->: , represented by Lib Dems on the Council.
151
- actually I think their relationship is rather like that in a cheesy film; man/woman spend all their time arguing but “get it on at the end” 
157. John, what is a “Tawny Owl”?
153 I assume that these sites are considered a means by which a constituency representative can communicate with their electorate and so need to avoid being party political to be eligible to be covered by MPs expenses. Does anyone know whether this is actually the case or I have just imagined this?
159. The 21th century version of Scarlett O’Hara and Reth Butler?
160 I KNEW KNEW KNEW you’d ask that :P: Er, Jack…..
145 Ms Nuala. Being the High Priestess of Mal’s fan club you’re in no position to preach about worth as Rifkind will shortly decamp to the Tory political knackers yard.