Could Blair make an announcement in a matter of days?
September 23rd, 2005-
Was the decision taken while on holiday?
The big unanswered question over-hanging British politics is when will Blair step down? When will he make his big announcement? When will the baton be passed on to Gordon Brown?
We have long taken the view that this will happen later rather than sooner and that he would serve most of his third term. Now we are not so sure and next week’s Labour conference, which Tony Blair is surely not looking forward to, might be the time for the news to be broken.
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Rather than days of bitching and arguments with the party that has never really taken to him why not have a week of accolades by making an announcement about his departure time-table just as delegates are arriving in Brighton?
Adrian Hamilton in the Independent has been watching the Prime Minister closely and has noticed that things seem to be different about him since his return from holiday.
He notes ..But it’s the tone that has changed. And tone, as we have all come to learn in Tony’s case, is all. He proclaims debt relief and increased aid, he lectures on tougher measures to meet the new world of terror, he declares his ambition radically to reform public services. But none of it is said with much conviction, or at least with a sense of much concern about the result. His now-famous comment about the BBC to Rupert Murdoch seems par for the course. A careful politician wouldn’t have said it, knowing that it would be repeated in public. But, while he is mildly irritated that it has caused a small fuss, I don’t believe that Blair minds very much. It proves his American loyalties and the direction of his future. It’s not that he seems wearied of power or worn down by the strains it brings. Just the opposite. He appears positively refreshed by his unusually long holiday. It’s just that you feel that if it all ended tomorrow he wouldn’t mind too much, that out there in Barbados he reached some form of conclusion or contract with himself
Timing, of course, is everything and Tony Blair is a master of doing things at precisely the right moment to make maximum impact. It will be recalled that just a year ago, a couple of hours before the polls closed in the Hartlepool by-election at the end of the Labour conference, Blair made a big announcement. Then he gave news about going into hospital and that he would be stepping aside during his third term. If by any chance Labour had lost the by-election the media would have been on this news not on the result.
I have no idea what Tony Blair will do but Hamilton’s piece has set me thinking. There are several betting markets:-
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Mind-reading is always tricky. Most people arrive back from most holidays feeling a bit more relaxed. I think it makes a good article but I doubt very much whether he’s on to anything. Maybe I’ll be proved wrong.
I’m quite sure the Independent article is mistaken, and also doubt if TB is not looking forward to the conference - it’s proved enthusiastically loyal in much more difficult times than this year. There are worse things than reporting back to the party after a third successive General Election victory.
Remembering that most PM’s are not fully in control of when they leave Downing St, it is fair to assume that TB is waying up leaving after modest success or staying in the hope of something bigger. I think his departure is unlikely in the very short term, he would not want it to be seen through the prism of the current Iraq developments. We are entering the danger period for PM’s as the 6 months either side of the New Year are traditionally when Party’s get fractious having lost sight of the previous elections and not close enough to the next to cause irreparable damage. I still think the 10th anniversary is the most likely point to depart, it gives his successor 50% of this Parliament to bed in, it also allows him 50% of Parliament to attempt to secure his legacy.
The German election.
Well, Kofi Annan’s job is available from 01.01.2007…. Perhaps TB is being lined up for the top job at the UN. I’m sure GWB would be delighted if he could fix it for TB !
Re 5. Sadly, of course, there is no vacancy at the Vatican. I cannot think of any other position that will be big enough.
As a Brighton resident, I’m wondering if Nick P or other PB.com regulars will be coming to the seaside this week?
7 - From the evidence of the thread the other day I would be surprised if half the pb.com regulars didn’t already live there!
re 8 - I missed that! Which thread?
9. Erm, the Tory-Lib dem coalition one. I am of course making generous use of stereotyping
Wildly Off Topic - But you must watch the clip of the new Wallace & Gromit film on the BBC website. I loved the shorter programmes a few years back and this looks great fun!
7 - Hi Martin , I live in Worthing not that far and lived in Brighton until two years ago .
Did anyone see that idiot Tony Seldon on “This Week” last night? Sheesh.
I did - I take it you weren’t impressed?
If Blair really makes the “big announcement” , Tessa Jowell will look like the most ridiculous woman on earth (she insisted that Blair will serve a full third term yesterday).
13 - yeah, i mentioned it on the other thread.
11 - definitely one to watch
13, 14, 16 - what has Seldon done to warrant this barracking?
7: Thanks for asking, Martin - no, for family reasons I’m not there this year.
19. I thought MPs were “obliged” to go to their party conference.
20 - Andrea, thats a bit harsh. Didn’t you read the he said it was for family reasons after all. Where are your manners?
21- I’m not criticizing him or anything. I intended (obviously without success) my comment as an indirect question about if MPs attendance to their party’s conference is something a must or not.
Wht did I always get in troubles? :-c
19/20/21/22. btw, if it was seen as an attack, I sincerely apologize with Nick Palmer.
22. I think you’re a great resource to this site, Andrea. Maybe everyone’s getting a bit tetchy.
24. To thank you I could link you a picture of your favourite politician: Diane Abbott!
http://www.londonclasswar.org/images/abbott_big.jpg
No problem, Andrea - but no, there is no compulsion to attend, though we usually do. Constituency delegates get most of it, as it’s their best chance to meet Ministers, but it’s a great opportunity for everyone to mingle and push their favourite causes. I’m sorry to miss it.
O/T: the CDU-Green talks in Germany have collapsed, with little prospect of later revival. A poll suggests new elections would produce another undecided result.
Don’t be so sensitive, Andrea! You’re a sweetie and everybody knows it.
X
27 Peter P. But what sort of sweetie is Andrea. With some of his posts I go for a gobstopper !! Of course I’m a humbug !!! ….. and other posters ?!?!?!?
Thanks Nick Palmer.
Jack, I don’t know what a gobstopper is and I won’t try to find it out.
29 Andrea. Normal Gobstopper :
http://www.maths.qmul.ac.uk//~cgr/France3.jpg
Theresa May Gobstopper :
http://emutagen.com/untidyhorror/images/gobstopper.jpg
30. Jack, your first link doesn’t work.
It opens me a website about Mathematical Sciences (so something that has nothing to do with me!)
29 Andrea. Sorry - Normal Gobstopper :
http://www.maths.qmul.ac.uk/~cgr/France3.jpg
30 - god knows where you got that second image from Jack
32. Jack, it’s not very clear to me what I should do with that thing in my mouth. Hopefully not something too obscene
I’ve just noticed the small hint of Burberry on Tone’s polo shirt in the photo above - an attempt to woo the Chav vote perhaps?
34 Andrea. Suck it and see !
33 book value. I try to please !
35 Stephen. And Cherie looks six sheets to the wind !
24 - haha, many thanks. What a great site as well (London Class War). Aren’t the Trots getting themselves well organised these days?
Andrea [21] - you’ve never been in trouble with me, even if I do remember the boot* being on the other foot once
*this post is a Teresa May-free zone.
Jack W [30] - be careful, NuLab is going to make images of violence against women a major felony…
38-”even if I do remember the boot* being on the other foot once ”
When?
[39] Can’t remember… don’t care, doesn’t matter, wish I hadn’t mentioned it…
Oliver Lister sounds like a Tory after my own heart. From today’s Evening Standard:-
“Guillotine Disabled Children Says Deputy Mayor.
A deputy mayor has resigned after saying disabled children should be guillotined to save the NHS cash. Owen Lister, 79, a Tory on Swindon Council, was speaking during a meeting to discuss funding for handicapped children.
The former GP told colleagues it was too expensive to look after severely disabled children, so they would be better off dead.
A spokesman for the Disability Rights Commission said “Cllr. Lister makes Pol Pot look enlightened.”
40. I’ll investigate it with the help of my detective lessons with Angela Lansbury (just saw her on “Death on the Nile”).
41. Could I insult him?
41 - He’s got to win most un-PC comment of the year award hands down.
According to Der Spiegel Schroeder is warming to the idea of sharing the Chancellor’s job with Merkel in a grand coalition; two years each. Gentlemen first. Naturlich. A suivre…
[45] Angela Merkel needs to have dinner with Gordon Brown - in Islington, naturlich
46.” in Islington, naturlich ”
I suppose the Granita is in Islington South. Jeremy Corbyn would have never allowed two rightwinger to have dinner in his constituency!
45 quite so.
45 - yeah, that’ll work.
(41)Just as you think,albeit momentarily,the Tories are changing their spots,up pops that old git from Swindon,who reminds me why I used to sing derogatory songs about the 1984 Brighton bomb!
41. Well that’s a shocking statement.
To tune of ‘Hoseasons’holiday ad,early 80s:
Patrick Magee
Came down to the sea
And checked into the Grand
At Brighton
Maggie came down
With her party,
I bet she wished she’d left
Her light on
I don’t think that that was necessary.
Nor do I. What’s worse; an obscure Conservative councillor (probably senile) making stupid comments, or a Labour Peer, MSP, and ex-minister trying to burn down a hotel because the staff wouldn’t serve him any alchohol?
Still that song helps explain why new Labour get on so well with Sinn Fein.
I agree that the song was not necessary and that it’s not so funny to make jokes about tragic events (I think Tebbitt’s wife was left paralyzed).
Then I also think it’s pretty pointless to play the “who’s worse” game.
Btw, here’s Owen Lister:
http://www.swindon.gov.uk/owen_lister.jpg
Perhaps best if everyone tones it down a bit before it goes too too far
55 - he’s looking good for 79 (if it’s recent)
Re. 54, Sean, not all of us - Frank Field and Kate Hoey have each criticised the excessive concessions given to Sinn Fein. And my views on this subject (as a quarter Irishman who has no time for racketeers and those who indulge in punishment beatings and shootings) you already know about. Indeed, I much enjoyed our bipartisan teamwork attacking Master Hari’s more fatuous comments re. Northern Ireland.
57. I don’t know if it’s recent or not. I took it from the Swindon Council website.
O.K,O.K,the 1980s are behind us(thank God),a lasting peace has largely been achieved (I speak as someone who’s one eighth Irish and a Catholic),hey,its Friday folks,what are we still doing in,when there’s good drinking time to be had at your local(another plus for new Labour,extended pub opening hours);might see ya later!
Before I go,the most brazen act I have ever witnessed against the Tory Party was on Friday 2nd May 1997,the day after Tony Blair’s 179-seat landslide;my mate and I went to a Con club,and played ‘D.Ream ‘Things Can Only Get Better’ on the jukebox-we were told in fairly plain Anglo-Saxon what we could do!!
Fair enough, and your views (and those of Frank Field and Kate Hoey) are admirable Richard. There are, to be honest, plenty of people on my side whose attitudes towards appeasing NI terrorists are obnoxious.
I aired Lister’s views because I found them amusing in a sick but funny way. I suppose I was laughing at seeing the man make such a fool of himself - which isn’t really a good trait of mine.
Since we’ve wandered O/T on this thread, what do people make of this?
http://www.nationalenquirer.com/celebrity/63426
63.How reliable is The National Enquirer?
Not very.
63 IA. As long as Dubya wasn’t drinking with Elvis on that B52 on the moon I really don’t care !!
50 & 52 Obviously you share the same sick warped mind as the ‘old git’ in Swindon,you being the ‘young git’.
I thought Labour (if you really are a member / supporter of Labour as oppossed to some anarchist,or just plane idiot) had purged itself of its loony left,obviousl;y there were some dregs left behind.
I think don’t think Labour needs idiots like you, try Sinn Fein or Arthur Scarghills Socialist party where you views may be more in tune.
60-’might see ya later’
Don’t bother please stay in the pub and enjoy the endless 24 hour drinking.
(67)and (68*;I am the product of working-class grandparents born in 1912 and 1914 respectively;I have never,nor will ever,regard myself as ‘dregs’-(a)There was an obvious injustice in NI;(a)Battle of the Boyne 16901 (b)The failureof the UK parliament to pass the 1921 Irish Home Bill twice-BEFORE the days of the 1949 Parlaiment Act,when,upon two reversal,the Commons could push it through and achieve Royal Assent (c)Whatever Arthur Scargill’s faults,and I’d be the first to admit that he was on an ego trip, in,in July 1984,he was basically offered 99.5% of his demands,and even his Communist Vice-cChairman Mick Mc Gahey said’C'mon,its a score draw’-do you rememebr 3 1/2 million unemployed,the misery,subservience laid upon people,I’m 34 1/2 years old,and I probabaly would rarther be in my coffin than vote for the bastards who inflicted upon the UK misery,pain etc-well,I hope those who digress enjoy Brighon’s Labour conference;watch,enjoy,and let’s hope for a barn-storming speeech from John Prescott
Anyone wanna talk about the real root of NI;January 30th 1972,when 13 boys/young men were BUTCHERED by the Paras:I saw the 30th anniversary video in the unfortunate company of a Chelsae fan who cheeered for the murder of 1/8 of my countrymen;when I said’It’s worse than Hitler’s occupation of Europe in the 1930s’ he kindly offered to knock my teeth out;a few days later,an Irish accent,lets say warned him off
70 - I think perhaps you spent a little too long in the pub tonight
(71)or not long enough,to really mellow out,oh c’mon,peace is ther(bar the factions of Protestants slugging it out,lets be honest,teenmaged boys will fight)-I DO take exception at Tony Blair using the word’Scargillite’,for example,aginst Andy Gilchrist,during the firemans dispute-I quickly sussed tthat the guy is little more than a Tory in drag-personally,I’ve waited since mid-2002 for Gordon Brown to be PM-I’d have thought next week would be a bit of a coronation for TB,the first Labour leader in HISTORY to win 3 elections on the spin-I still think he’ll go around the 10-year mark(spring 2007)-time will tell
72 - I guess more may have knocked you out, but as a teetotaller, I guess your ranting to no-one online is the lesser of two evils
18. Seldon came on the show to say (more or less) that Blair had failed to make his mark on UK politics in the last eight years but would manage to force through major reforms in the next two years, helped in this by promoting fresh Blairite talent. Then when he was quizzed on how? and who? he didn’t seem to be able to answer, giving the strong impression that he’s full of sh.. (A shame, really, I’d heard that his book is very good.)
(73)I feel unustifuably called a ‘ranter’a well-left of Blair(c’mon,how is’nt?!’ would be fairer(Just re-read a book about 1989s UK politics,its for the left to carry the hegomeny for at least a decade and a half-I don’t kow who saw david Milliband on Question Time last night,but that guy has got his head so screwed on;I ddi used to worry about who would succeed Brown,somewheer betwen 2015 and 2020,but I feel my prayers are answered-who’d like to bet with me(£50 min stake)that the Brown/Blair govt will outlast the Thatcher/Major govt?
Re. 74, yes, he made a fool of himself in his inability to identify a single example of the fresh young talent he mentioned. Maybe he just had one of those blank moments it’s easy to have when interviewed on the TV or radio (there but for the grace of God…it’s never happened to me, but then I’ve only been on the radio twice, once on local radio, and once as a listener-reviewer on 5 Live last year).
His Blair and Major biograpies are very good, as are his two editions of the Blair Effect (just bought the latest one, some good stuff in, though it’s a pity about the horribly textbook-like design).
Easily the two best chapters in the latest edition are Pippa Norris on Elections and Public Opinion, and Seldon’s excoriating account of the Conservatives (all the more so for being one himself).
76 - also his claim that Blair had Gordon Brown “right where he wants him” ie. (as Portillo pointed out) at the Treasury where he had thwarted every attempt at Blairite “reform” over the last eight years!
77- What did Diane Abbott have to say about all Seldon’s talks anbour blairites reforms in the next 2 years?
I seem to remember she laughed, wheeled out her (well practiced) sardonic look of total incredulity, and raised her eyebrows.
79. She was probably thinking: “better forget that I’ll vote for these things”
It’s a bit difficult to read her from her facial expressions etc though. At one point I noticed Portillo was giving a long opinion on something and she was sitting next to him shaking her head vigorously… only to completely echo what he said when asked her views!
81.”Portillo was giving a long opinion on something and she was sitting next to him shaking her head vigorously… only to completely echo what he said when asked her views! ”
She was shaking her head because she was shocked to have the same opinion of a right wing like Portillo.
Let’s face it,’This Week’ is a friendly chatshow,almost ‘Pebble Mill’(remember the lunchtime show?)in atmosphere,and lets face it,Diane Abbott ain’t interested in ministerial office,Michael Portillo’s knocked it on the head altogether;he’s a real loss to the right of UK politics,thoughful,responsive,there ain’t too many of his calibre on the Tory benches-I wish I’d recorded an episode during the election campaign,when the opening credits were played to ‘Is This The Way to Amarillo?’,and Portillo was shown dancing to it!
He should do the decent thing now and end it, like disgraced men of honour once did, alone and in the study. No need to resign then.
84 - sadly, no matter how much you might want someone to do the merciful thing and go, they don’t.
Patrick - it might still be available on their website - the Amarillo song that is!
It was a little different from “SAS” man!
(86)Cheers James for your concern,but I have recorded from ‘TOTP’,the said Tony Christie song;fair play to him,a 62-year-old will sell the best selling song of 2005!
52 You might want to watch it. Your leader is making that kind of statement a criminal offence.
I don’t think so Charyxena. I read that references to Ireland were specifically excluded.
Patrick 74. Milliband managed to maintain a fixed stupid smile while talking tosh (about the Council Tax Revaluation for example - if it’s right for the Welsh then its right for the English!) - so indeed he probably is the successor to Blair.
In his brief period at Education I saw at least one set of correspondence with him which suggested that the vacuous space between his ears might indeed be where ‘two-brains’ Willets went thieving once upon a time.