Where football betting meets political betting
September 24th, 2005-
Is AC Milan’s George Weah the right man to become Liberia’s next President?
Of the 22 candidates standing for President in the tiny West African country’s presidential election, few have anything like the name recognition of Liberia’s soccer legend and FIFA 1996 player of the year, George Weah. The former AC Milan striker won the nomination of his Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) more than a month ago and is campaigning evergetically.
In the UK the Spreadfair spread-betting exchange has now opened a market on whether Weah will do it and the money seems to getting behind the former soccer star. In the spread, listed in Spreadfair’s “specials section” not politics, the price is 17-18 with 25 points on him winning and 10 points on him coming second
Weah, who was voted Africa’s player of the year and Africa’s player of all times, was also a UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador.
The election has been set for October 11th and if Weah withdraws or the date is set back by more than a fortnight all bets will be void.
But be warned - Weah’s campaign is controversial and he is having trouble convincing other Liberian footballers. Jonathan Sogbie, one of the members of Weah’s Liberian side, has followed another star, James Debbah, in attacking Weah’s plan.
Sogbie held a news conference to declare that Weah was “incapable” of governing his country. Weah is also being attacked for not having the level of education required for the top job - he dropped out of secondary school.
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At last - a baldie standing for high office. Let’s wish him well.
Ah, anyone remember that goal against Verona? I was watching the game live on C4, and when Weah got the ball I could genuinely sense something special about to happen (in spite of him being only several yards from his own goal-line). I love players that are that direct; fantastic.
Pb.com’s most boring headline: Small election in Liberia, not many read.
3. Yes John but don’t forget Mike Smithson is a Liberial Democrat. I wonder if Mike will be alone, gadding about delivering leaflets - Monorovia , I suppose.
He maybe the only one we know outside of Liberia but I bet at least a couple more are well known inside Liberia.
As he used to play for the greatest club on earth - Chelsea - he’s definitely worth a punt.
Surely it will be a Good Thing if Liberia achieves a free and fair election, whoever wins. George W’s explanation of why he dropped out of school seems fair enough to me - and since when has being thick stopped people winning elections?
Have no LibDems “Winning Here” posters appeared?
At least there is’nt a World Cup to influence the outcome(r.e England’s 1970 quarter-final defeat 4 days before polling day,and Wilson’s unexpected defeat-having read the Butler/Kavanagh Guide to the 1970 election,his poll lead fell from 12% to 6% that day;alright,the disastrous balance of payment figures really put the tinhat on it-glad it was 8 months before my birth-by the way folks,as England seem to be elimanted at the quarter-finals in Euro Cups,World Cups,maybe it would be a good move to put a fair wedge on that scenario?
There’s also a general election in Poland tomorrow, closely followed by one for the Presidency…These could have one startling outcome. This from an AP report:
“….The business community favors a Civic Platform victory, and Poland’s currency, the zloty, fell in Wednesday trading after a poll showed Law and Justice ahead.
If the outcome is very close, the choice over who will be prime minister could be complicated by the fact that Poland also faces presidential elections on Oct. 9, with a likely runoff vote two weeks later.
Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s identical twin brother, Warsaw Mayor Lech Kaczynski, is one of two leading candidates in that race.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski has said that if his brother wins, he would renounce the premiership in order to spare Poland the confusion of two major leaders who look alike…
One of those things you just couldn’t make up!
9. In Poland I think the choice is between right win parties and right wing parties.
The ruling centre-left parties could even fail to be back in the Parliament.
10 - I think Civic Platform is more centrist in ideology, but I take your point. You lefties can be so sour ;). Anyway, I’m orf for a boozy lunch (hopefully in the glorious sun :). Ciao.
11. From what I’ve read about Polish situation, I think the left deserves the bad result they’ll get tomorrow.
Good lunch!
Has anyone on the ground up to date knowledge on the two Scottish by elections in 5 days time. Seems to be a dirth of reporting this side of the border and very little in the Scottish papers.
Any local polls, anything?.
13 - I asked same question on another thread . Seems we know more about whats going on in Liberia and Poland than we do about Scotland .
14. Mark, what do you want to know about the 2 by-elections?
All parties are claiming they are getting a great response at the door-step(what a suprise!). SNP seems very active and is getting a good deal of press in Scottish newspapers (they are having their conference in these days too).
Howard was in Livingston and Cathcart last week. Labour had Brown and Blunkett there. The Libdems were probably busy with their conference. The SSP’s agent in Livingston collapsed and died while canvassing.
National newspapers will probably run some articles this week (hopefully more accurate than their ones about Cheadle)
14/15/16 - I’d like to be of more help but the only areas I really know about are South of Scotland and Edinburgh. The Edinburgh Evening News was saying that Jim Devine is expected to sail home in Livingston and that they are in the lead in Cathcart. I suspect some of the anger at Mike Watson was disapated by the frankly unpleasat spectacle of his sentence being anounced to loud cheers at the SNP conference. The coverage of him has been fairly sympathetic.
If the SNP doesn’t make progress it seems unlikely that they will meet the target of winning 20 FPTP seats in 2007. The Scottish Sun FWIW was suggesting Alex Sal,ond might stand in Gordon which on the face of it sounds unlikely.
16. Max, do you think that SNP have any chance to win 20 FPTP seats or it’s not a realistic target?
I think that the lack of coverage of those by-elections could mean that the mood is for a Labour win with reduced, but comfortably majority (especially in Livingston).
17 - I’m obviously not an unbiased contributer but I can’t see it. They would need to get a huge membership boost and massive increase in income if they were to successfully target these seats. If you look at Galloway and UN, we only have a majority of 99 but the SNP campaign machine in the area has completely collapsed since they lost the seat. The two by-elections should give a guide to how they’ll perform in the Central belt where they would have to pick up seats.
I can’t remember if its 20 gains or 20 FPTP seats alltogether though.
18. What type of swing should SNP get to win 20 more seats with FPTP?
(I know I could check by myself, but I’m lazy on saturday afternoon
18 Max. What are you doing on here after the lunchtime Jam Tarts feast !! I thought you might not surface until Monday
20 - It was really good but back from Tynie now. Had a bit much to drink last night so having a bit of a rest now!
19 - How would you go about checking that?
22- I would check the results last time and how far behind they’re in their 20th target. Am I missing something?
23 - The Scottish Politics site might help you Andrea, just going to have a look myself.
23 - Have you got the results handy?
24. Scottish Parliament and the BBC websites could be useful too:
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/msp/elections/analysis/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/vote2003/scottish_parliament/html/atoz.stm
Well good luck with it. Looks like a lot of effort.
In his speech Alex Salmond was talking about the need to carefully target their resources and learn the lessons from the general election where they increased the number of MPs desptie going down in votes…i think 20 is optimistic but what else is he going to say?
The really interesting thing about the by-elections is what happens to the Lib dems…failure to overtake the SNP would be a spanner in their works…..
After a fast look (so I could have probably missed something), they’re 14,7% in their 20th target. The problem is that they’re in third position in a couple of seats (like in Edinburgh Centralwhere they’re 14.7% behind).
If they want to win 20 more FPTP seats, they should win Livingston (12% behind in Scottish elections); so the by-election result could be an indication of their chances.
R.e Scottish constitencies,which were ‘evened up’ to the English aveerage electorate,from the 2005 Times House of Commons guide,the Scottish eelctoarate fell between 2001 and 2005 from 3,980,974 to 3,851,290-assuming the Boundary Commission comes in 2007,allowing for an average electorate of 69,500
28 - Cathcart going to be an odd one because of Pat Lally standing again. If he polls 10-15% then the result could be utterly meaningless as a pointer to 2007.
30 - The old boundaries are still used for Holyrood and this is unlikely to change before 2007.
Sorry,accidently sent that before finishing,I was going to conclude that if the Scottish eelectorate continues falling at the same rate,on a strict population basis,they would be entitled to 54-55 seats next time-unless Scotland has ben awarded a fixed no.of seats,in the same way it was always 72 seats-I’m not complaining,as a Labourite I’m happy for Scotland to be a little over-represented!
Cheers,Max,I somehow guess Scotland’s parlaimentary boundaries will remian the same-pardon my ignorance,but which form of PR is used for Scottish elections?
35 - Additional members system. You get two votes. The second is for a regional list vote. Labour win all the seats in Glasgow but then get none of the 7 list seats available in the region.
Thanks Max,much appeciated! Am I right in stating the Livingston by-election is being contested next Thursday?
36.yes and the Cathcart by-election too
Cheers again!
29. By my calculations, Paisley South (9.82% behind) is the SNP’s 20th most winnable seat, and Stirling (16.92% behind) is their 20th most “gainable” gain.
These are big asks given the SNP went backwards across most of Scotland at the GE.
39- I’ve just realized that I stopped at their 15th target this afternoon.
Aberdeen C 5.9%
Here’s their target list (correct me if I left out something):
1)Galloway 0.3%
2)Tweedaale… 2%
3)Cumbernauld 2,1%
4)Kilmarnock & Loudoun 3.9%
5)Dundee West 4.3%
6) G Govan 5.8%
7) Westerns Isles 5.8%
9) Linlithgow 7.1%
10)Reenefrewshire West 8.8%
11) Paisley South 9.8%
12)Fife 10.8%
13) Cunningham North 11.8%
14) Livingston 12%
15) Edinburgh Central 14.7%
16) G Govan 14.9%
I don’t think we really know whether Poland moving right is good or bad. Personally I’m always glad to see an ex-totalitarian party being trounced at the polls. It may well be that Poland needs to move right just now, and that a new left-right spectrum will emerge, defined by the biggest two parties after the next election. By the looks of it that might even be the two coalition partners, by then fighting against each other.
I don’t think Lib Dems failing to overtake the SNP would be a big deal. Parties that are very successful overall can do disastrously in by-elections where another party is looking at making a gain. I think Labour lost the odd deposit in the run-up to 1997 during Lib Dem gains.
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