The Betting Markets move further to Davis?
September 25th, 2005Tory leadership betting: RED Davis, BLACK Clarke, BLUE Cameron, GREEN Fox
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But what if the rule changes are rejected?
With the Labour Conference, the Scottish by-elections and the announcement on Tuesday of whether the Howard changes to the Tory leadership rules have gone through it’s the biggest week in British politics since the General Election in May.
For the Tory leadership our latest chart shows further a improvements in the implied probability of David Davis winning based on the latest best betting prices.
It certainly looks as though the momentum is with the Shadow Home Secretary and the view of the other contenders, as the Observer reports this morning, is that Davis will benefit most if Tuesday’s decision on how the leader is chosen puts the final say in the hands of MPs. This is a complete reversal of the view at the start of this contest when it was thought that Davis would fare better if it went out to the membership at large.
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We had thought that the move to Davis in the past few days was based on leaks about how the rule change ballot was going. However the amount of money that’s been required to shift his price has been very small - just £8,000, for instance, in a week has been traded on him on Betfair.
The big factor will be what happens in Blackpool next week. What will be mood of the party as one candidate after another set out their stalls to delegates? Opinion polls could also be crucial in shaping views particularly if there are more surveys showing Clarke convincingly ahead in both the country and amongst Tories.
Blackpool also gives a chance to the other contenders - Liam Fox, Sir Malcolm Rifkind and David Cameron - to put some traction into their campaigns. They must be hoping to make a speech that resonates with the party because this could possibly make a difference.
Davis’s big challenge is that he is still relatively unknown amongst the general public and the last time the party chose someone like that they ended up with Ian Duncan Smith.
Davis’s strong point is the support he has managed to garner amongst the party’s MPs - though whether they will do in private what they say in public is a different matter. This could be crucial if the rules remain unchanged because then the parliamentary party ballot to select which two contenders go on to the final ballot of members. Anti-Clarke factions could work to block him out of this even if the polls continue to show that he is the first choice amongst the membership.
It is hard to call against Davis but he still has a lot of work to do.
Tory leadership betting prices
Conventional bookmakers best price: Davis 8/15: Clarke 9/4: Cameron 13/2: Fox 16/1: Rifkind 25/1 Betfair betting exchange: Davis 0.47/1: Clark 4/1: Cameron 12.5/1: Fox 14.5/1: Rifkind 47/1 BinaryBet spread market. Davis 59-66: Clarke 19-25: Cameron 6-10 Fox 5-8: Rifkind 1-3
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It all depends how far he is ahead among Mps though. The problem for Ids, and a fundamental flaw in the current rules, is that he wasn’t required to get close to a Majority of votes among Mps. As a result when questions about his leadership surfaced it was easy for them to remove him - it is not very difficult for any individual to vote against, in a confidence motiom, someone who they never supported in the first place. To let this situation recur, in the circumstances (unlike last time) where there is a clear choice of Mps, and Vote for someone who has marginal support would be stupid, and a powerful argument in Davis’ favour with the membership (if it even got that far).
Hi Mike,
You raise a very interesting point in your introduction that I have been giving a lot of thought to myself.
KC has (unfortunately from my perspective)had some success convincing some of the grass root membership that “only I can win - the opinion polls say so”.
How much success is anyones guess and I would say still nowhere near enough. If the rule change is rejected, time will tell.
As a safeguard against KC though, I’m increasing inclined to wonder whether the MP’s wouldn’t in any event ‘do a Portillo’ on him to prevent him getting into the final two that are put before the membership.
Reading these Boards and talking to people it seems to me that only Rifkind of the current contenders would lean towards KC if and when he is eliminated, presumabley a good number of his supporters might
similarly switch allegiance.
Whilst Camerons ‘block’ is difficult to call,I’m increasingly inclined to think he is moving ever more strongly towards DD. The barbed attack on him by Berkow on TV a little earlier reinforces my suspicion that he isn’t going to do a deal with KC.
With an electorate of 198, you only need 67 to make the final.
At this point in time, I simply don’t see where KC’s 67 are going to come from.
If, just if, it does pan out this way, and DC is promised a key role in the DD team and decides to pull out, could it fall to Liam Fox to act (either by design if onboard with DD or genuinely)as the spolier ?
I don’t think he would win, or expect to, but it could make trading on him at 16/1 a profitable punt ?
Mr Smithson, your remark about Sir Malcolm is exactly what I have been arguing (in the face of much derision I have noted) for some time. He is a powerful orator and projects the right image to our party of a strong, uncontroversial, safe pair of hands who can engage the electorate tired of the gimmickery of the socialists and rightly suspisious of their liberal fellow-travellers.
I only wish that we had the sort of electoral arrangements that meant that our vote could be counted; after all, if First Past The Post is good enough to elect our MPs, its good enough to present our members with a field of which they will select the “first among equals”.
Sadly the quality of our parliamentary party has been much diminished since 1997 and we continue to have to suffer the consequences of the vanity of a rump of delusionals.
[3] Surely, Nuala, the “quality” of the Parliamentary Conservative Party has increased beyond all measure with the return of Sir Malcolm for Kensington & Chelsea :). I’m only saddened that Sir Julian Critchley is no longer with us, unless perhaps you’ve been talking to him via the ouija board…
Nuala - I agree with you regarding all of Sir MRs qualities but he is a leading figure, not a leader. I would like to see Rifkind playing a major role in the next shadow cabinet, but as what? He has the qualities to be shadow foreign (but I suspect wouldn’t want to), shadow chancellor (but would have to take on Hague, Willetts, Osbourne, Fox et al), shadow home (the poisioned chalice role in my view, because I’m not so sure that DD would let go of that portfolio), shadow leader of the house (rather a political backwater) … where would you like to see him placed if (shock ‘o’ shocks) not elected leader?
DD, if elected leader, has the best position in terms of shadow cabinet talent yet. Fox will have matured by then, and Willetts has really come forward. Plus if people like Maude, Green, Kirkbride are willing to serve also, it could be a fight to get into the top team again.
In terms of quality, the size of one’s parliamentary party isn’t necessarily the deciding factor. There are thousands (sic) of Labour MPs yet I believe this has been the least talented government since 1923. Blair’s MPs are so talentless he’s having to recycle (e.g. Blunkett, Mandelson, Harman et al). Why? Well the MPs who won their seats in the 97 landslide were excellent candidates, many of them very good and assid. constituency MPs but not cabinet material. And beware Tories, for many of your 05 intake are the same. They can organise a petition to save a local Post Office (maybe one the LibDems want to privatise) but can they juggle with the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio?
If Davis gets, say, 80 votes in the first round and nobody else gets more than 30odd then how can anyone make a realistic case for him to not be leader? That is the big question if the new rules don’t go through and the old ones stay in case. And I don’t see how you can discount that scenario. Davis is already miles ahead on declared supporters, and his team seem to be engaging in a strategy of building up the momentum declaring 3 or 4 more every few days (another 4 this morning).
I think Sir Malcolm should stay in his present position if/when DD becomes leader. Pensions is one of big issues we need to nail labour on. The raid on pension funds needs talking up especially as it is now affecting people coming to retire. The sudden way it was implemented instead of phasing it out needs to be seized upon (a few years too late but that’s the nature of pensions policy). Sir Malcolm could do a real service by highlighting this more.
Regarding other key portfolios, Hague as shadow chancellor if he’ll serve. Perhaps with Osbourne with him as he’s made a promising start to his surely shortlived tenure as shadow chancellor. Willetts may well be offered shadow home office. Fox may well stay where he is as well as Cameron in Education where again we can lay blows on the government and we need a good performer. Health needs a fresh face so perhaps Damien Green.
6-”Blair’s MPs are so talentless he’s having to recycle (e.g. Blunkett, Mandelson, Harman et al).”
I don’t think he keeps recycling them becuase the others are talentless, but just because when he likes someone, he wants to have him/her around him.
“Well the MPs who won their seats in the 97 landslide were excellent candidates, many of them very good and assid. constituency MPs but not cabinet material.”
As you says, it’s not only a Labour problem, many tory and libdem MPs are not cabinet material.
Them in the 1997 landslide even some people who should have never been MP managed to get elected.
9-ops, “then”, not “them” at the beginning of the last poragraph.
8.”Perhaps with Osbourne with him as he’s made a promising start to his surely shortlived tenure as shadow chancellor.”
Promising start? It seems he has completely failed to do something memorable (or at least something someone will remember) so far.
I remember his first Commons appearance as Shadow Chancellor and Brown was amused by him (and more annoyed by Lynn Jones trying to speak than Osbourne). Then, what has he made?
He proposed to take in considereation the flat tax. Well, I suppose Labour is hoping that the tories will adopt it and it’ll have the same effect it had in Germany.
7 Alex - I think and hope your analysis is correct.
How indeed ?
Who are latest four to back DD?
Did anybody see Liam Fox and Tony Blair on Andrew Marr’s showing this morning. The former seems to have put on a lot of weight and did not seem very much at ease with himself. Blair, on the other hand, was in fine form and the idea that he might be about to stand down seems remote. It is hard seeing any of the Tory contenders, apart from Clarke, dealing with him.
Davis is very smart but has little presence.
I am trying to understand this love of Clarke.
Mike why do you think Clarke is the only one to deal with Blair? (I accept Fox is not up to it)
8. I don’t see the point of emphasing the pension fund raid, unless the Tories are actually prepared to reverse the cut in Pension Dividend Tax Credit. Are they ?
14 - It is very simple. Opinion polls (although they still show Clarke losing heavily, and one would have thought he would have less “room for improvement” than others).
12 - One of the Sundays (Telegraph or Times) said David Lidington +3.
13 Sorry Mike - it’s your page and it’s only right that you should have the final word, but I totally disagree with your assessment.
13. Blair is gaing weight fat too, Mike. And he’s not aging well.
Just saw Sky News with Adam Boulton from Brighton.
Some comments:
-John Reid is a useless buffoon (he’s not even funny). Hope he’ll stand for the leadership and he’ll be trashed.
-Is John Prescott real? The body, the head, the neck (or lack of it)….. all seem so “unreal” like he has just came out from an horror movie or a cartoon.
- It’s now clear to the whole Britain that Katy Clark wants to talk about policies (how many did she mention this word? At least 5 or 6 in a single reply). At the end she refused to endorse Brown or someone else.
- Does Michael Cashman think he’s still on “Eastenders”? It seems he was acting while answering the questions. (but at least he was talking slowly and so it was easy, for me, to understand him).
18.” Blair is gaing weight fat too”
??
??
It should be “Blair is gaining weight too”
The thought of the next General Election being between Brown, Davis and Kennedy fills me with horror. I would rate none of them at more than 5/10 for presence and charisma; 4/10 for their public speaking abilities and 4/10 for their abilities on TV. Blair, by comparison, I would rate at 8 or 9 on each count.
But perhaps one of them might get over 3/10 for honesty!
20 - how about their ability to run the country?
13/17 Mike/TB. Mike’s got this one pegged. DD has got as much presence as a taylors dummy. To think he’ll best PM Brown is laughable, and DD for all his high profile in the media in recent years has barely stirred the electorate beyond bored indifference and frankly is only beaten to first place as Conservative most likely to induce stupefacation by Rifkind and Cameron …. and it’s a damn close run thing.
Does anyone know the format of the Conservative National Convention on Tuesday.
It still looks most likely that the rule change will be approved by approx 60% - ie less than a two thirds majority.
If this happens will there be scope at the meeting to put forward a new proposal of a 50% MPs : 50% members Electoral College for the fianl? If this were to be put forward I would have thought it would get almost 100% approval.
This is crucial because I would have thought that a 50:50 Electoral College would be enough to make Davis a near certainty to win - ie if Davis could get say 60% of MPs’ votes in the final he would then only need 40% of members to win the Electoral College.
20. Mike Smithson, maybe the point is that a PM should rule the country and proposing policies and not only being good on TV or having charisma.
I would prefere to have a strong political PM than someone who looks good on TV and has charisma.
My PM has charisma and is able to use TV very well, could I send him to you to fight the 2009 election?
25 - “My PM has charisma and is able to use TV very well, could I send him to you to fight the 2009 election?”
Perhaps Tony Blair has already thought of this and is going to try nominating his successor
12 - Plus Mark Field and Nigel Evans.
26. If he’ll lose next year election, he could be free for 2009.
I would happily take Brown in exchange.
Just imagine. An election where the primary issue isn’t presentation and how they are on TV, because they’re all useless. We might get some serious debates on policy! Heaven
Pie in the sky though…
29. No, Alex, it’s impossible. The next stage is that you’ll have Graham Norton and Davina McCall as PM candidates, becuase they’ve charsima, look good on TV and have public speeking abilities
30 - well i’ll leave a judgement on Graham Norton to your good self, but I would dispute your perception of how good Davina McCall looks on TV
And that voice!
The more the leadership race develops, the more a particular picture appears. For one, it is likely to be a fairly clear run-off between Clarke and Davis. Although some of his 2001 support have peeled off to Davis, Cameron and Fox (et al.) lack the traction to put in a serious challenge, though both have some kingmaking potential. Fox is likely to boost Davis’ campaign with his supporters, and Rifkind and Lansley are likely to swing behind Clarke when they are knocked out (sorry, Nuala, but that’s the way it appears); May I’m not really sure about. Cameron is the real mystery, and I think that he could make a difference if the contest is tight - strategically, he’s best going for Clarke.
Ironically, it seems as though Davis is more of a gamble. Clarke is a genial centrist who likely to deliver progress at the next election, although it is questionable whether he can achieve an outright majority. Davis, by contrast, is likely to offer a renewed right-wing approach which could either deliver huge gains (if there is the mood for a change) or collapse completely. At the moment, I think that the latter is more likely. Though on policy, I’d place myself in the Davis camp, I fear that the areas where his policy platform are most likely to do well are already saturated with Tories - the affluent South East. A 10% swing to the Tories in Surrey is no help whatsoever. To capture the Midlands marginals and even regain our 1992 tally, I think that a genuinely more centrist approach is needed. Constituencies like Cheadle, which should be solidly Tory, are unlikely to come back under a Davis leadership.
Of course, if you’re a purity before power person, elect Davis by all means.
31. Alex, to be honest I’ve never seen Davina McCall on TV. She was only the first UK host who came up in my mind.
I would happy to see a Brown/Davis or a Brown/Clarke contest in 2009. At least discussions about how much make-up the PM will wear could be avoided.
33 - yeah, it’ll be about hair, not makeup.
32 Another Alex. A very solid analysis. For me our Ken offers the best chance for the Tories. However even with Ken the scale of the challenge is huge. Running down the list of seats outside of the south east should be a very sobering experience for the Tories, especially as some seats will require a leap from third place and others a big switch from the LibDems.
34. well, at least we could avoid the PM wife talking about the PM sexual activities. At least I hope (discussions of Brown and Clarke night life are not my cup of tea! They could lead me to horrible imagines)
32/35 - I couldn’t agree more. I cannot see DD appealing to the middle-class professionals outwith the South East who no longer see voting Conservative as respectable. Without them we won’t win back places like Stourbridge, Solihull, Pudsey, Elmet, Edgbaston etc. All the Libs and Labs will have to do is ressurect his comments on hanging and we can kiss goodbye to those types of seats. We simply cannot win on a hard right-wing platform - unless people have learnt nothing from the last 8 years.
37 - “hard right-wing platform”. Do you think David Willets is supporting a hard right wing platform?
Afternoon everyone- and another most helpful and uplifting chart Mr S.
The sun is shining, DD’s on the home straight, and we’ve just had those fantastic local council results you discussed the other day. As someone who grew up in Eton Wick, I was extremely pleased to see us kick out Labour there (incidentally, for those that don’t know it, the Wick is very definitely not some posh annex of Eton; that was a REAL result).
And all you LibDems on this site must be as pleased as I am to see the Ken challenge receding. My advice is to enjoy it while you can.
10. Having one spelling error at that time of morning is a triumph. Although his first commons appearence wasn’t a great success, he improved afterwards and is looking to embrace new ideas.
15. We need to come up with new ideas about pensions. Whether we go back to the former position in full or part, I don’t know. I was arguing the method as well as the act needs attack.
32. I don’t accept that DD is this arch right winger that he’s being portrayed as. Would the likes of Ian Taylor, Davis Willetts and Damien Green come on board if a extreme right wing agenda is going to be pursued. As DD has said, our policies must be measured by how they help the most vulnerable in society.
37 - I’m saying that that is how i fear DD will be perceived and how our opponents will present us. You cannot say you want to bring back hanging and at the same time present yourself as a moderate, modern Conservative. It really worries me that all this will do is further alienate people who tradditionally voted Tory and will have the affect of weakening us further outside the South East.
37 Max. You are correct. How the Tories think they’ll win with DD and from the right is a mystery to me. It proved a disasterous error with Hague, IDS and Howard so what will change with DD, especially as the Tories are seen as well to the right of most voters.
I fear however that most MP’s and the wider Conservative party haven’t grasped these realities. And should PM Brown comfortably defeat DD at the 2009 election where do the Tories go from there ? …. yet another useless right-winger …..Oh lord !!
40. maybe I was too harsh with “Gideon”, but he has still to prove himself.
42.”yet another useless right-winger …..Oh lord !! ”
they’ll finish them at one point!
41 - if 3 years isn’t enough time to “change perceptions”, especially one who apparently has no public profile, then the Conservative party might as well give up now. Whereas Ken offers little that the public don’t already know about (and no policy platform at all, or even a pretence of one, looking at his website) and that’s only apparently (according to the polls) enough for another heavy defeat. He is far more the “wait for a collapse in confidence in the government” candidate.
It’s true thast DD’s hard-right credentials will be more a matter of perception than his actual position. I’m reminded of his time as Minister of Europe, when he knew perfectly well how to give rhetorical red meat to Eursceptics while sounding suitably communitaire in Brussels. But the perception in itself might be damaging, unless he can deliver a strong narrartive that convinces people to vote Conservative. And it’s questionable whether he’s dynamic enough to do that.
42 - Again I fear you may be right. I have nothing against David Davis but I don’t see what he offers that we haven’t tried before. He doesn’t strike me as particularly charismatic or inspiring despite being very competent. I hope I’m wrong but i cannot see any evidence to the contrary.
44 - the perceptions aren’t just of David Davis they’re of the party as a whole and its very deep seated. We are seen as being to the right of the general population and electing someone who is seen as being on the right of the Conservative party won’t address this. We keep ignoring the wishes of the public when we choose our leader and yet then expect them to listen to us. And yes some polls show that KC wouldn’t make much difference but others show he would do somewhat better than DD.
39 Wat. I’m afraid you are drifting off to victory celebrations a trifle early. Certainly thinking that DD winning the Tory leadership is an end in itself, it’s not. That comes when a Conservative leader enters No 10 as Prime Minister. And frankly DD’s shambling performances against a weakened government, where even Oaten appears statemanlike, do not inspire confidence. DD’s elevation to Tory leader = a fourth successive Tory defeat and the start of a lengthy period of Gordon Brown premiership.
40 - One of the slightly disconcerting arguments put forward by Green et al. for their support of Davis is his background. The problem is that it is quite clear that a modest background has little impact on voters’ perceptions of (particularly Conservative) politicians. Howard trumpeted from the rooftops that he was raised by a humble family in Wales, son of immigrants, grammar-school educated etc. ad nauseaum, but that didn’t prevent voters regarding him as well to the right.
[48] I trust that you’re heartened, Jack, by Brown’s latest re-iteration that he’s more Blairite than Blair - he sounded to me as though he was reading from a script written by Mrs Thatcher…
Oh and just for Andrea theres been a bit of talk in the Scottish Papers about the Cathcart (a seat we used to win as a moderate one-nation party!) by-election. The Sunday Herald was saying their is very little interest in the constituency itself and the SoS attributed a quote to an SNP insider saying that they fear the protest vote will split between the SNP, Pat Lally and ourselves.
Obvious ploy my Davis camp to drip feed support. Nigel Evans is my local MP and I am sure I have read that he was Davis supporters weeks a go.
51. Thanks Max. So it seems the most likely result is a Labour win with a reduced majority.
53 - Andrea, also our opponents have been up to some fiendish tricks. They vandalised Richard Cook’s posters by making the second ‘o’ look like a ‘c’!
50 IA. It’s clever positioning by GB, I’ve been expecting it for some time. GB knows he has to retain and build on TB electoral legacy and talking of a property and share owning democracy means that GB knows he has to position himself squarely with TB’s tanks on the centre lawns. GB will be smiling at the prospect of DD scrabbling in the bushes to the right and the Lib Dems wandering around the weeds to his left.
50. Lady Thatcher is possessing Gordon at the moment!
54. If it give you some confort, I could tell you that those acts heppen here too. No one is scandalized anymore.
48- Jack- thanks for pointing out DD’s election is not an end in itself. One of the main reasons I want him there is because I believe he can lead us back to power. Have you read his speeches? He’s not the right-wing zealot of myth and legend, and he’s going to give us a modern Conservative programme for tackling the social and public service problems that affect everybody. Especially the disadvantaged.
As new MP Greg Clarke- one of this week’s endorsements- says:
“David Davis has the right vision for Britain. When he was Party Chairman, he said that the test of any policy must be what it does to help the most vulnerable in society. He was among the first to recognise the need to bring our public services into line with the best in the world, and he helped construct policies to take power away from central government and unaccountable bodies and give it back to local communities and citizens.”
Have faith Jack (umm…Jack, I’ve wondered before, but I’m presuming you actually are a Tory, otherwise presumably you’d be backing DD…)
Wat - How do you think he will appeal to people outside the South-East? I’m interested given you’re own views on people from Scotland (communists) and people from the North (communist wasters).
57.”Jack, I’ve wondered before, but I’m presuming you actually are a Tory, otherwise presumably you’d be backing DD…) ”
Jack voted tory until 1992. In 1997 he switched to New Labour.
OT: Has anyone a list of fringe meetings at Labour conference?
The only things I was able to find out are the meetings of the Labour Left (one of their meetings even offers live entertainment and late bar! A must!)
Jack’s screechings are pushing me to DD out of sheer spite
. Oh do calm down, old thing, you’ll feel so much better after those venison burgers…
49. I think the background is just a complement to the policies being pursued. We lost that last election because our policies didn’t appeal. The manifesto was reactive, not proactive and had a touch of the Victor Meldrew about it. If we develop better policies, then DDs background will be a bonus to go with them.
57 Wat. I’m a former Tory voter 79-92, former NuLab voter 97-01 and hopefully former abstainer 05 !!
As something of an insomniac I’ll be sure to take DD’s little blue book of wisdom to bed with me ! Thanks for the remedy.
62. Jack, you’ve to come clean. We all know you voted Libdem last may
Mike L at 24. The Convention doesn’t meet on Tuesday, only the results of the ballot are announced. The next meeting of Convention is the morning of Monday 3rd October, the warm up before Conference proper starts at 2pm
But Wat - your guy is so boring. He has such little name recognition because he acts and talks just like another middle-aged man in a suit. I follow politics closely and I cannot recall Commons appearance, a turn of phrase, a speech, an interview or something that he has written that is MEMORABLE. He fails to make an impact. I know about his role in getting a Home Office minister to quit and his work on the Public Accounts Committee - all impressive but that hardly makes him a household name.
I would rate him behind Clarke, Rifkind, Cameron and even Liam Fox on these counts.
Wat Tyler [57] - you allude to DD’s reference to the need to bring our public services into line with the best in the world.
We are all agog to know which “the best in the world” are and how you can tell
23 Jack … Why aren’t I suprised you disagree with an anti Clarke comment ?
60 John O. Spite can be so jolly …. as Tories leadership contenders know so well.
BTW If Andrea provided the exact length of all post war Italian governments we could have a book on the closest in length to the Conservative leadership race !!
68.”BTW If Andrea provided the exact length of all post war Italian governments we could have a book on the closest in length to the Conservative leadership race !! ”
http://www.governo.it/Governo/Governi/governi.html
Click on the PMs names to see the government’s lenght
Tone at 6: “There are thousands of Labour MPs (sic)”. No there aren’t. We’re working on it, but it’s quite hard when there are only 650 seats…
I’m surprised that DD is stirring both strong support and opposition. He’ll be perfectly OK, just not anything special, in the same way that Howard has been - competent, fluent, reasonably flexible. The Tories need either a convincing new leader or a convincing new programme, and if they get the latter then DD would do OK, but he won’t set the prairie on fire. Cameron and Clarke are more interesting choices in their different ways, but higher risk as well - Cameron because of his youth, Clarke because he has a good many enemies in the party. It’s almost certainly going to be one of the three, so probably not worth worrying about anyone else.
63 Andrea. In the May 05 election, I’d soon pledge allegiance to the Hanovarians and have the Duke of Cumberland to lunch than vote for the Lib Dems
67 Tory Boy. Why indeed
Our Ken in excellent form with Dimbleby Jnr. “….. Liberal Democrats scared to death of me …. ” ….. ” we’ve had a disasterous ten years in opposition …. “
39 Good to see you Wat - it’s been lonely (apart from Woody!)
70 - I think you’ve missed the use (misuse?) of the ’sic’.
Surely someone as good as Howard, whilst lacking the vast majority of Howard’s negatives (ie. his past) would be as good as it’s going to get?
71 Jack - Typical Ken wasn’t he.
Shameless, bumptious and totally self opinionated (unlike any of us on these boards of course !!)
10 disasterous years……..whilst you did what to help the party exactly ‘our Ken’ ?
Apart from share a pro Euro platform with Blair and promote tobacco.
It’s so easy to see how he would be used to split the party if he came through the middle to win it would be funny if it wasn’t so serious.
There’s a few LibDems on here rooting for Ken. Unsurprisingly IMO. He’s their best chance of fundamentally changing the face of GB politics.
74. It was typical Ken. 100% self confidence/arrogence. I just can’t see how he can win though. The membership won’t vote for him against Davis.
61 - That’s precisely the problem I’m trying to diagnose. Davis’ most prominent policy pronouncements to date - his support for capital punishment and flirtation with flat tax - are firmly from the Right. Personally, I think that the flat tax is a good idea in principle, but was always sceptical about its appeal to the country at large, and the fate of Angela Merkel ought be taken as instructive. He is regarded by most people outside his immediate supporters as a traditional right-winger, and has done little so far to challenge that view.
74 - As I’ve said before, dissent dries up in the face of improved polling results. One could have made precisely the same argument against Thatcher in the late 70s - that a good deal of the party despised her - but the “wet” critique of Heath, Prior, Gilmour et al. ultimatley did little to challenge her Premiership. If the party looks like it will win, MPs start dreaming of red boxes, not assassinations. I’m fairly sure that had IDS been coasting in the mid-40s in the polls that he would not have been knifed.
74/5/6 TB/alex/woody. That’s why we love our Ken …. what you see is what you get … warts and all. Far superior to the other self evident also rans. Also did anyone else notice that our Ken has lost some weight ….. not from worry about the other candidates though
77 - what flirtation with the flat tax?
http://www.david-davis.co.uk/news/news_id.asp?id=33
http://www.kenclarke.co.uk/tck.htm
78- Jack, my dear, have you looked at the lenght of Italian governments? Look at how many failed to reach the second year!
All the ones that lasted less than 1 year and strong candidates to be shorter (not Clare!) than the tory leadership race
Don’t expect I’ll rank them for you (I’ve already produced the SNP target list yesterday. So I’ve already donemy homework!).
78. I think it must have been the camera work. I can’t see Ken going down the gym and taking on a crash diet. His missed a few bits with his hair dye. He described DD as a very good friend before hinting he was an extreme right winger.
77 Sorry AA/Jack on various threads - its clearly a case of when worlds collide.
Apart from a few meaningless Polls SUGGESTING that KC is more popular (I have yet to see or here of anything that suugests this isn’t down to name recognition rather than actual (so called) ‘preference’) there is nothing to back up the suggestion that KC would be a better leader.
He retains the ability to alienate a significant % of our core vote and split the party.
We’re clearly never going to agree - lot’s more postings desined on the subject yet I suspect.
For God’s sake let’s get on with the election !
Or Hear even !
78. Now I’ll post my useless comment of the day(we’re in the “silly hours” of the day), but I don’t like Davis’s website. He needs to re-design it.
Btw, I don’t like the tory symbol too. That torch….it seems they’ve to take part to the Olympics Games (maybe that’s why it seems they couldn’t care less about their defeats. It’s more important to take part than winning -here-)
79 - “Whatever the outcome, it is clear to me we need a flatter, simpler tax system.” - David Davis
81.”He described DD as a very good friend before hinting he was an extreme right winger. ”
Is it not possible to be a good friend of a right winger?
84. Surely any Tory contender must be looking at a simpler tax system.
85. It was the context Andrea. The old shake them by the hand and stab them in the back routine.
84 - that’s hardly the same thing!
“As a good friend I am very well positioned to tell you about his true political opinions…”
76 Woody. . You say The membership won’t vote for him against Davis.. Well the polls of Tory members seem to suggest otherwise. If only DD had 5% of Ken’s confidence and personality then you would be onto a winner. Sadly for the Tory party DD is probably going ot get it and we’ll be having the samev discussion here in September 2009 - except that even Ken, surely, would not be seeking the office at the age of 69.
DD - Mister Non-Personality - Mister Boring - Mister Labour Fourth Election Victory - Mister Loser
82 Tory Boy. ” Apart from a few meaningless polls …. ”
So meaningless that the other candidates and Labour and the LibDems are commissioning them !! and from what I understand …….. all of them show our Ken as the clear winner
81 woody. Our Ken on a treadmill
80 Andrea. It’s your homework for Monday !!
Personally i don’t understand why Conservatives aren’t more annoyed by the way that Clarke is regurgitating the old “if i can’t be PM nobody can” routine ie. by portraying all his opponents as extremists (which helps his campaign) he is making it much harder for any leader if he loses.
89. Mike Smithson and I are not related …… although he could be a very distant clan kinsman of another sept !!
89 - you seem unusually strident today, Mike, for someone who has (from a political perspective) a strong alterior motive in seeing the Tories make a bad choice. But anyway, seeing as he will (in your words) be up against two equally useless opponents in Brown and Kennedy then he must have a chance! Unless you’re clinging to this idea that Blair is going to stand again?
91 alex. It’s simple the Conservative aren’t more annoyed because for more and more of them the penny has finally dropped - Our Ken is the man to take on the Labour and the Lib Dems.
Who will you be backing in 2009, Jack?
Good afternoon all , little point joining the DD/KC debate nothing new to add or contribute . Have been thinking about flat tax and reached the conclusion that there is nothing to stop any of the 3 major parties adopting it as policy . What matters about it is the level at which it starts and the rate . The Conservatives would no doubt use it as an opportunity to cut the taxes of their mainly wealthier supporters whilst the Lib Dems to help the less well off .
Nulab - who knows ? but the essence is not flat tax or not but what flat tax . I suspect that Merkel was harmed by it because in many voters eyes they perceived her as using it as a means to help the rich at the exspense of the poor .
89. I don’t rate the polls regarding the Tory leadership contest. If it went down to a final 2 of KC and DD, then the anti Ken feeling would see DD home cosily. If IDS can beat Ken by 20%, then I can’t see any reason why DD wouldn’t do the same. I don’t see that much has changed in the meantime as no one I’ve come across has been convinced the change in stance on Europe.
Regarding DD as leader, I don’t think we’ll agree on how he’ll fare and have to see how he develops.
The Conservatives would no doubt use it as an opportunity to cut the taxes of their mainly wealthier supporters whilst the Lib Dems to help the less well off
Of course
Nothing like a bit of mock impartial stereotyping 
On the KC/DD thing. I reckon KC might take votes from Labour. I can’t see him harming the LibDems though. This sample of 1 will probably be voting for them
86, 87 - As I said, I personally think that the flat tax is a good idea. But then I’m not a Midlands-marginal floating voter. Talking about a “flatter” tax system, for all its merits, is hardly going to shed a reputation as a right-winger.
97 - YouGov had the IDS/KC contest within a very small margin-of-error (about 2% IIRC). I think many of us Tories are still living in the aftermath of 1992; the facts are that many pollsters, and particularly YouGov, have employed more sophisticated techniques since then.
89 Mike - What polls among Conservative members?
If you are you suggesting that the majority of Conservative members want Clarke as leader - you are, quite simply wrong (IMHO)
As for you spit at the end - please, come on.
If you are contending
90. Jack, it’s a difficult homework! The problem is that after a PM’s resignation, the government is usually asked to stay in office for “current affairs” decisions while a new government is negotiated (these period are usually called “crisis of government”). So should I have take in consideration the date of PM resignation or the date when a government acutually went out of office (even if in the days/months before, it didn’t really take decisions, but only did the “caretake” job-)?
In 1972 an Andreotti’s government lasted 9 days, then he resigned and new elections were called, but he stayed in office until the end of the elections.
90 So Labour and the LD’s are commisioning information that will damage themselves and putting in the public arena to benefit the Conservativ Party are they ?
Ken is only the “clear winner” from their perspective - not ours
99. Any idea how yougov get them polls. I’m registered for surveys but have only been asked who I voted for. Never if I’m a Tory member or not.
91 Alex, I’d suggest it’s because he is (mis)playing straight into the hands of the majority of the membership who dislike him instinctively and are having their reasons for doing so confirmed first hand.
hysterical outbursts from Heseltine are also very helpful in this regard.
So far the polls are the only evidence we have as to how the electorate feel about the leadership candidates. I wonder if DD’s supporters would be rubbishing them if they showed their man doing well? As for him (KC) spliting the party the polls show that 14% say they would leave, I personally think he would attract new members especially in the constituencies where they are most needed.
94 Dream on !
105.”I personally think he would attract new members especially in the constituencies where they are most needed.”
Is the list of the total number of members per constituency availbale somwhere on th net (not only for the tories, but for Labour and Libdem too)?
102 - I think the point is its not in the public arena! I think Jack has his own means of finding out. As for the argument that the polls are largely about name recognition what does it say about the other contenders that so few people have ever heard of them?
105 Great plan Max, lose 14% of the mebership to possibly gain (or lose) x % of the general vote.
If that isn’t a desperate “stick it all on black” gamble I don’t know what is.
107 - I’m afraid not Andrea. The only way of finding out is to look at the accounts for each constituency party on the electoral commision website. Unfortunately only constituencies that have annual income or expenditure of £25,000+ have to submit accounts so the information is incomplete and even then not all accounts state the number of members.
95 alex. You’ve hit the nub. If our Ken is leader I’ll look at the Tories for the first time since 92.
102 Tory Boy. They are commissioning polls to see who damages them most and why. Public polls
101 Andrea. From the start of one government to the following polling day.
108 So let me get this right. Jack is a friend of the Conservative Party who is trying to help us by passing inside information that other partys secret polling data fear Ken Clarke ? Er OK !
Also, are you saying that leadership selection should be based on ‘name recognition’ over and above suitability for the role?
111 H’mm then using 3rd Parties to leak the (supposed) damaging information to the Public ?
109. Are you sure that 14% would really resign? It could be that they’re only over-reacting, but at the end they’ll find an excuse to stay.
110. It would have been interesting to compare election performance and the number of party members.
109 - Firstly, not everyone would go through with the threat to quit and secondly you can equally argue that the same poll would show that David Davis would cost us votes. Maybe we do need to take a bit of a gamble.
And is their any chance you could try being a little less dismissive/sarcastic/aggressive. I’ve said from the outset that the attitudes of some of DD’s supporters is what concerns me (I note Wat still hasn’t come back to me on his views on Scots) and you are not doing very much to dispell it.
108 - I think the serious point is not so much that the polls are meaningless. As things stand Clarke would probably do better than anyone else. But on the other hand I would argue that the current public perception of him is vastly improved compared to what the reality would be. Even if you accept that the public do know exactly what they are getting with him, the fact that the polls still show heavy Conservative defeat is hardly something in his favour. How is he going to improve the public perception of himself.
Whereas the others may currently suffer in comparison, but it is far easier to argue that their public persona will be improved in the future with greater exposure. That is the point. And to argue otherwise is to have absolutely no faith in your own opinions (if you are far more in agreement with them than KC’s policy free zone).
115. We’re not all aggresive Max. Great win yesterday for the Hearts. Down to 2-1 for the title now. Great stuff.
111 - I meant in the next leadership election, Jack
Obviously not something you, as a non-member need worry about, but something the Conservative Party as a whole, should.
118 - Elaborating. Most people, even Ken supporters, say they still think it’s unlikely they’ll win the next election. And if Ken’s not a candidate to win, then he shouldn’t really even be considered. They need someone to serve more than 4 years for once!
112/113 Tory Boy. I’ve passed on nothing that’s not already in the public domain about our Ken and the polls and indeed focus groups, just that unsurprisingly the private polling confirms the public ones. Did you really think that the other parties would be idle during the Tory interregnum.
108/110. So far only a Labour MP has openly said that he’s fearing Clarke more than others. It’s Ian Gibson from Norwich North. He’s a member of the Campaign Group: they usually really say what they think.
Clare Short hopes that Clarke will become tory leader. But only becuase they could oppose Iraq war together!
115 Max
If you recall I disassociated myself from any view Wat may or may not have made about the Scots (I didn’t see them)
Equally, I’m not from a happy clappy background either and I think my comment @ 109 is well within the bands of acceptable challenge.
Is your defence on the subject perhaps a little shaky ?
117 - I know Woody, I just find it a bit irritating that some of the people who go on about KC splitting the party seem to be amongst the least conciliatry. At the end of the day whoever wnins the party has to pull together - something I’m more than willing to do.
Yesterday was amazing I’ve allready bought my ‘2005-2006 Believe’ t-shirt. Probably the best game since the ‘98 cup final. Its probably the worst Rangers team in 20 years and fortunately Celtic aren’t much better!
112 - It is a sad comment on the state of the Conservative party in 2005 that there is noone other than KC with any public name recognition .
40 - I believe that DD has drawn support from the Tory Left-wingers such as Ian Taylor basically because he has fudged the issue of Europe. Taylor being staunchly pro-euro, I reckon he has got behind Davis because, if he were in charge, support for the euro would, apparently, not be regarded as “a test of party loyalty”. For the pro-European wing, I think not being kicked into the grass because of it is extremely important and DD has, astutely, tried to curry their favour by pledging that this won’t happen.
Would a DD leadership be tactically aware? Yes. But to me it remains far too weak on detail. Does Mr Davis believe that sound management of the health service, for example, is limited to getting better value for money?
Whilst I am loath to be negative, the Tories have appeared unable or unwilling to exploit many open goals in the government’s health and education policies. What, for example, has the Party said about the crisis we currently have in medical education?
120 I’m sure not Jack, and I’m even more certain that they wouldn’t be announcing they feared Clake most from every vantage point if they really did.
123. Max, you’ve to accept it. You, as a Scottish man, are a commie. Stop being in the closet, accept yout true self
http://www.rifondazione.it/eu99/img/man_vota.jpg
Woody at 97 If IDS can beat Ken by 20%, then I can’t see any reason why DD wouldn’t do the same
The alternative view is that you only need one in six of the members who actually voted for IDS to think that they made the wrong choic e (having seen what IDS didn’t achieve) and Ken wins. Combined with the fact that the members who are no longer with us were in my experience disproportionally IDS voters.
Give the membership some credit - I don’t think most want to make the same mistake again. Maybe it’s the circles I move in, but I see more anyonebutDavis sentiment than anyonebutClarke. And that wasn’t the same at the last leadership ballot.
124 Perhaps so Mark…. now list for me the regiments of famous Liberal Democrats
128 - Thats the difficulty in judging these things Andy. I imagine that the support for different candidates is different depending on where you are in the country. Its very difficult to build a national picture of how the membership feels.
118 alex. The next Tory leader but one ?!!?!?
I’ve said several times that even Ken will have a huge challenge ahead of him. Indeed he may end as the Tory Kinnock - bringing on new talent and making the Tories appear as a credible alternative government in 2013.
123 Max. Careful ….. chickens and hatched !!
128 Andy, re mine @ 2.
I totally accept that there has been movement in that direction.(for better or worse)
Then I’ll get a better fell this time next week.
127 - Never Andrea! Angus McLeod of the Times on the politics show was saying that the SNP are doing better in Livingston than Cathcart but are still likely to lose by quite a bit. In Cathcart they haven’t been able to rally the protest vote which ties in with what I heard about our own vote holding up. Also suggested turnout in Cathcart could be worse than the last election (around 45% IIRC).
130 Happy to part on an agreement before I enter GP mode.
Perhaps those of us in ‘the heartlands’ are too comfortable whilst those of you in ‘the regions’ are too keen to grasp at straws.
Probably, as ever, the truth lies somewhere in between ( but nowhere near Nottingham !!!)
Cheers
129 Max. You make Mark’s case. Even a Lib Dem party with few high profile figures provides a blocking minority on Conservative propects.
131 - I know, I know but you can’t help getting carried away when you have your best start since 1914-1915. It was considered the greatest Hearts team of all time before the entire first team signed up for the war (most with the soon to be abolished,Royal Scots). You can’t really see Rooney, Pennant, Dyer et al doing that these days!
135 - Always nice to end on a happy note!
136. Before the summer, The Times had a survey by Populus about recognition of tory politicians (they showed people pictures of tory MPs and ask to name them).
It emerged that people confused David Davis with Alan Duncan!
136 Sorry that should be Tory Boy not Max …. how could I get the two mixed up !
137 Max. Yes it’s a wonderfull start.
BTW when is the Royal Regiment to come into force ?
I remain amazed at two things some of the posters on here keep assuming.
1) Ken Clarke’s poll rating is just down to `name recognition’. It isn’t. When Labour had it’s last leadership election Tony Blair had done very similar jobs to David Davis. Every poll showed he was far more popular than John Prescott - who had just as much if not more recognition at the time. Like it or not Tony Blair has charisma, David Davis doesn’t.
2)There are constant dismissals of people who once voted Tory and say they would again if Clarke was leader. The objective of a political party is to win power. To do that you need to win voters over from the centre ground. This is rather obvious but Davis supporters don’t appear to believe this.
Also the mood of the membership has changed. There is, thankfully, an increasing recognition that you have to back someone who can actually help the party win. As for the comment above that if the Conservatives still loose the election under Clarke (119) there will have been no point voting for him, surely gaining more seats and having more appeal to the electorate is better than fewer seats and less appeal to the electorate.
128. There must be distinct regional variations then because I’ve come across no support for Ken at all around here. We’ll see what happens but I would expect DD to outscore IDS % win if/when it goes to the members. That’s a prediction competition to look forward to.
141 - my point was that since Clarke’s apparent appeal is based entirely on his public perception, and seemingly little else (in fact if you read his site the only significant reason he gives for electing him is his public perception) then any gains made at the next election are likely to be a false dawn. Any support he acquires for the Conservatives will drift away once he steps down (as, at age 70, he will have to realistically do). IMO he is a short term candidate who is unlikely to provide what the Tories need long term to return to power. Claims that he would be “the Tory Kinnock” are IMO completely wide of the mark. Kinnock provided everything that Labour needed except public popularity and did so over 10 years.
Anyway it’s just an opinion. I’m not a Tory member, so they can do what they like. I’ll be voting LibDem probably.
143.”I’m not a Tory member, so they can do what they like”
What?
I thought you were a tory!
144 - no.
The comment about voting LibDem was if KC wins though
145. That’s explain lots of things………