The ball’s back in Blair’s court
September 27th, 2005
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Labour’s ping-pong continues as the PM’s aides say Brown is being “presumptuous”
On what will surely be the biggest day in British politics since the General Election Tony Blair is making his big conference speech in Brighton and the Tories will announce the result of their ballot on how Michael Howard’s replacement will be chosen.
In the immediate aftermath of Gordon Brown’s speech yesterday all seemed clear - the Chancellor was giving the Prime Minster the accolades and was using Blairite terminology to make the planned change-over at Number 10 as smooth as possible. But within a few hours the Blair-Brown relationship appeared to revert to normal - that is bad.
According to several papers this morning the Prime Minister’s camp began briefing against Brown and the word that was being used was “presumptuous”. According to Michael White in the Guardian “Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were again at odds last night over the timing of the “orderly transition” with the PM’’s aides saying that in his speech today Blair will say “he has no intention of handing over the reins in the next 18 months, as the Brown camp wants.”
Peter Riddell in the Times notes “…just as the hard-core Brownites still fear that they will be double-crossed by Mr Blair who will want to stay on for longer to secure his “legacy”, so the zealous Blairites are watching out for any attempt by the Brownites to push out their man prematurely. Anyway, expect a reminder in today’s speech from Mr Blair that he is still very much in charge and has plenty which he still wants to achieve.”
All this has made Labour leadership punters nervous and the Brown price has eased a touch. As to when Tony Blair will go the after January 1 2008 option remains the strong favourite.
In the immediate aftermath of Brown’s speech William Hill put out a press release quoting odds of 14/1 against the Chancellor being Prime Minister at the start of next year’s Labour conference. Although Blair looks like staying much longer than that the price is quite tempting.
Tory Leadership
The events in Brighton will over-shadow the announcement of the result of the ballot on the Tory leadership rule changes. The general view is that if the Howard changes go through then David Davis’s prospects will be increased. He has many more MPs on his side and the parliamentary party will be the final arbiters. If it is left with the members then if the polls are correct Ken Clarke has a better chance - provided he comes in the top two in the MPs ballot.
Tory leadership betting has remained very light as punters wait for today’s news.
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Completely off subject, but does anybody know what has happened to Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report site? I haven’t been able to get it for a couple of days.
Thanks
Peter
1 Mike had a piece a few weeks ago. Evidently Anthony, who used to work in Michael Howard’s office, has now joined YouGov which is taking over the site. I would guess that some technical assimilation is underway.
Does anyone know the time of the Tory leadership announcement?
PA is running a story that suggests Tory Central Office sources believe defeat of the leadership voting proposals is likely, although it is rather hedged, so don’t place your bets yet!
2. Thanks Countryman. I’m surprised he didn’t forewarn us though. If anybody has any further news, could they give it here please? It’s my second favoriite site and I don’t want to lose track of the estimable Mr Wells.
1 - Anthony’s site was up briefly last night . There was a statement that the problems were with the main server based in the US which was in the path of hurricane Rita .
Mr 12, unfortunately whatever the outcome of the ballot it won’t give us what we want, which is a chance for the membership to decide between all the candidates. We are being offered either a choice of two pre-selected by MPs or no choice at all.
3 - voting closes at noon, annoucement expected at 4pm. Turnout currently around 80 %.
Nuala,
I entirely agree with you. Some form of electoral college would have been sensible. Also I do find it incredible that so many MPs blame the party for electing IDS last time when they encouraged them to do so (e.g. David Davis backed IDS when he pulled out).
6 - can I ask who “we” are in this case? Do you mean the Tory membership or those who support the membership having the vote?
Isn’t Gordon Brown going to run out of “what i will be like as leader” speeches in a couple of years?
Mr 12, thanks you for your comments. Mr H, I mean the membership.
Labour.
I’ve the feeling that Blair will end up like Lady Thatcher.
If he’ll talk about NHS reforms today, I hope TVs will show Dobson’s face.
Tory:
It’d funny: until a couple of months ago, we were talking about Davis having more chances with members voting and Clarke having no chances with party members. Now it’s all the opposite!
10- Alex, he could recycle them. “Middle England” won’t realize it.
11 - Thanks; is there evidence that the membership as a whole actually want the power to elect new members, or even that a considerable majority of members support being granted these powers?
The Malcolm Rifkind supporting membership certainly wants a chance to vote for him
13.”is there evidence that the membership as a whole actually want the power to elect new members”
What do you mean by “members” here? I’m probably missing something.
Andrea it’s easy. Tory members mostly hate ken Clark but think he can win. They mostly like David Davies (wig or no wig!) but think he doesn’t stand a hope in hell. Conservate Party is an unholy alliance which exists for the uncompromising pursuit of power - so which tendency wins?
Mike the poicture is lovely - Blair pretends to hit without spin. Hain was heavily ‘at it’ with the meejah yesterday, talking of Blair serving out a full term because the narcissistic twerp thinks he himself might have a chance in 2008/9 if the comrades decide Gordy is too old by then.
Mr Alex, although I detect a hint of jesting in your comment, the problem for we members is that we do not know the true levels of support for the candidates amongst the wider membership. As it stands we are forced to choose who we wouldn’t necessarilly wish. Who knows how the vote might pan out were we to be consulted properly on our wishes?
15 - sorry, it’s early - I meant “the power to elect new LEADERS”.
13 - Presumably if the vote on the rule changes is close then that will indicate that a substantial minority want the power to elect a new leader.
I don’t understand why the MPs are so opposed to a properly constructed electoral college.
13. Two YouGov polls of Conservetive party members have shown a large majority in favour of their own disenfranchisement: http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/TEL050101043.pdf (penultimate question).
19-I would have thought that the party membership should have a vote on all the candidates and based on this vote a short list of 2 or 3 is then put forward for a final vote by MP’s.
20. I don’t trust Yoygov anymore since their yesterday’s poll showing Boris Johnson and Sarah Teather as UK sexiest politicians.
22 - where was Caroline Flint in the standings?
The Telegraph has a letter from 30 defeated candidates supporting Ken Clarke.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2005/09/27/dt2701.xml
They say they represented constituencies the party needs to gain to win next election. Then I read the names and I find Book Value’s favourite Nicola Talbot. Well, they won’t win Islington North in the near future,even if they’ll a GE.
23. BV, I don’t know the full ranking.
Mo is the favourite politicia, Prescott and Beckett would need a makeover and past tory leaders are the most boring politicians in the country (Majoy is the msot boring followed by Duncan Smith and Hague). No one would like to be on a desert island with Ian Paisley
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/articles/PA_NEWA13249451127494046A0?source=PA%20Feed
25 - I’m surprised that Dominic Schofield signed it. IIRC he was involved in the no to the Euro campaign.
26. he probably wants to win Battersea next time
Lorcan, the polls have shown a large majority in favour of the *final say* going to MPs. As far as I know, no polls have actually asked members of the party if they approve of being individually disenfranchised.
24 - there’s a few in their scraping the low teens. I’ve found Stuart Cottis with 9.9% in Aidrie and Shotts. Anyone any lower?
If it was orchestrated by the KC campaign then I would get seriously opposing him on the betting markets now!
In fact having checked a sample it would be surprising if more than a handful of them we in seats needed to win an election!
Oh no! Scott Brady - 5.8% in Glasgow south-west
31-Some of them even got a very bad performance.
30. They’ve someone in seats they need to win: Battarsea, Balckpool North, Dorser Mid and Somerton & Frome for example.
News From The Tory Trenches.
David Davies : Contrary to their original thinking DD’s campaign is concerned that a leadership vote amongst the membership will benefit our Ken. There are also rumblings that DD has been caught on the hop by our Ken’s early declaration and his momentum.
Edward Leigh : Has the numbers to stand, but is concerned he’ll damage their prefered second choice candidate Dr Fox, so is taking soundings on options.
Liam Fox : Is picking up support and also has the numbers to stand, but is concerned, that as stated above, Leigh will damage him initially.
Malcolm Rifkind : Struggling to get out of the traps. Widely admired but is second choice of too many MP’s to get lift of. Is considering withdrawl after the conference to avoid embarrasment.
Teresa May : Will not stand, but continue to intervene from the sidelines.
David Cameron : Shocked by his lack of impact and some advisers are already touting a strategic withdrawl.
Our Ken : Very pleased with the campaign and becoming more confident as the days go by. Has been having talks with other candidates over endorsements. Watch this space.
BTW how did the site morph into a catwalk show yesterday ??? … influence from Milan - Andrea your a naughty chap
One day you might get his name right, Jack…
At the moment, Cameron looks as though he might be surpassed by Fox. A pity, because he still has plenty of potential.
33. Jack, when did the site become a catwalk yesterday?
And David DaviEs is the other one!
Re. 22, Teather can occasionally look mildly alluring (when she’s on a diet), but the idea that she’s sexier than colleagues Jenny Willott and Julia Goldsworthy or, on the Labour side, Jessica Morden, Caroline Flint and Yvette Cooper, is ridiculous. Nor is Teather in the same league as Theresa Villiers or Justine Greening.
37. A couple of the ones you mentioned are not very good looking (I won’t name them)
Your preferences Andrea? and please no, NOT Liam Fox….
34/36 alex/Andrea. Sorry, my dyslexia means I might proof read a dozen times and not spot the most basic of mistakes !!
I think AHM, John O and Max, probably encouraged by you Andrea, discussing their attire. Next you’ll have these Tory troubadors waxing lyrical in their posing pouches
26 - so has Dan Munford who was a member of the ‘No’ campaign here in Wales with me. I believe that he has consistently supported the Ken Clarke view of the war in Iraq which probably explains things.
Re. 38, I’ll concede that Goldsworthy has her off-days (like when she wears those hideous specs - her photo in the Times Guide to the House of Commons is awful). On her better days, though, she beats Teather easily (as do the rest).
Here’s another one who beats Teather in the sexiness stakes - Katy Clark. Rather left-wing for my taste (she joined the Campaign Group after being elected), but she’s absolutely gorgeous.
Though her political opinions are opposite to mine,I admit to finding Justine Greening extremely attractive
[42] ohmigod… I was at college with Katy Clark. Never rated her, he says sexistly.
Like all people i would expect that there are some MPs (of either sex) who look great on TV and some who look great in person and the two don’t always overlap.
What PB.C needs to do is create a political version of “AmIhotornot”. Sadly most of the current crowd will fit into the latter category. The is unlike Mrs. Thatcher when I was fortunate to have met her in the early 80s. She was definitely part of the former - I think David Owen described it as all that whiskey and power.
45 - Photos of Jo Swinson and Jenny Willott don’t usually seem to do them justice.
40 - Nowt to do with me, gov (though Oxfam are hot on clogs)
I know I’ve said this before but in some photos (the one on the BBC website for instance) Julia Goldsworthy bares an uncanny resemblance to a long haired Mitchell McLoughlin.
There’s also a girl on the excellent TV show Britains Next Top Model (its almost as good as Hollyoaks!) whose ambition is to be a Tory MP.
49 Which one?
50 - Marisa! She’d look amazing in a twin set and pearls.
51 - She looks like Theresa Villiers
51 - I am really impatient, particularly with dim people and tend to get irritated very easily. I am also quite opinionated.
Sounds like she has all the right attributes to become a Tory MP
51 - “Why could you be Britain’s Next Top Model?
I am cleverer than the normal model is thought to be so I will use my brains and cunning as well as my looks to get to the top.”
Hmmm… sounds promising, though she should note the early withdrawal of “Two Brains” from this contest. I don’t think her face is all that attractive though (which is all I can really judge from that page).
“She’d look amazing in a twin set and pearls.”
I’ll leave the Denis Healey/Daisy Donovan joke to others…
53 - She sounds a bit like the much loved Sarh J! How I wish she would come back into our lives.
54 - You really have to watch it to get the full effect. Honestly its great! Almost as good as America’s Next Top Model, not to mention Australias Next Top Model. Their just isn’t enough reality TV for my liking these days.
Max 53. Sadly Sarah J never existed - she was the creation of several regular posters on this site all of them, as far as I can ascertain, are male.
57 - I think some regular posters may have been wrongly tarred by the vagaries of shared IP addresses. However I have no doubt that there were multiple Sarahs.
Re. 47, Jenny Willott looks absolutely scrumptious in photos, as she did in the TV coverage of the Cardiff Central declaration in the early hours of May 6th.
Jo Swinson looks better on TV (she just about made it worth watching TV coverage of the LD conference) than in photos. The Scots brogue is very sexy as well.
I presume other posters have seen this article in the Times. Apparently the ballot has not been overseen by the Electoral Reform Society. I find this remarkable.Who is counting the votes? Conservative Central Office with a vested interest in a particular result.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1799252,00.html
Just been watching a re-run of Prescott’s conference speech. He seemed to have a lot more things to criticise KC over, rather than DD. I know this is only one example and Labour are good at scuppering someone’s reputation - but I still think KC will get pillored with all this “same old tories, look at this 18 years of tory administration fossil” stuff, while most people would not even remember DD was in the last tory administration.
57 - well, I’m shocked, nay, appalled. Sarah was the main reason I started posting on this site.
OT and it’s probably already been highlighted but…Good God, have you seen the monstrosity that is Liam Fox’s leadership campaign website? Has it been set up by one of his opponents?
63 - I’m scared to look at work, but have noted the “FOX ABOUT” section before. Which shirtless rotund middle-aged man is it that barks a “FOX POP” at you today? I’ve seen O’Brien and Heald already.
Don’t particularly mind his website, but to me Liam Fox is a bit like Tory Charles Kennedy - or that is how he comes across to me at times.
He might be steady, but he does not give you the impression “Prime Minister.”
57 Mike. Sarah J not real … and a man !! Are you saying that in addition to a goodly sprinkling of gay posters and the odd (some might say very odd) Scottish aristo we also have multiple transve*tite contributors. Strangely it makes the Conservative posters appear almost normal ….. almost !!
Any odds on which Conservative leadership contender TB mentions in his speech !!
64 - “shirtless” should be “tieless”. They haven’t gone quite that far yet.
64 - It is Heald is doing his best to appear as though he is being filmed for one of those dating agency videos (I haven’t got the sound turned up so, for all I know, this might be what’s actually showing).
It was the very odd head shot of the good Doctor at the head of the page that gave me grounds for concern - I’m still unsure whether to laugh or be disturbed.
64 - “For Fox Sake Stop!!!”
69 Tabman. I now know why I didn’t want Fox hunting banned ! The dear Doctor rushing headlong toward the hounds
That website really is NOF.
OMG, having a deeper look into the website, I notice that the video clips of the Tory hunks (Oliver Heald - tieless - WoW) is entitled “Fox Pops” and the News section is imaginatively titled “Fox News”.
Nearly time for El Presidente to start.
I will go for David Davis and KC mentioned, Clarke first.
It’s very alarming if you have your sound on but don’t realise that Oliver Heald is going to start barking at you.
Judging by the earlier posts today, he really needs Justine Greening doing a “FOX POP” if he wants to make the website popular.
74 - Greening? Can’t see what people see in her; she doesn’t float my boat. Liz Hurley, however (especially doing her “Bedazzled” schtick) …
I note that, according to the site’s Terms of Use, that the site should not be linked to if a) “you link from a Site that is not owned by you” (sorry Mike) and b) “your website does not contain content that is distasteful, offensive or controversial.”
There’s a joke to be made here, I think.
75 - well, she had some popularity earlier on the thread. I was trying to help Liam by basing my suggestions on the list of supporters he has to work with. And you know the trouble he’s got into before by taking celebrities’ names in vain.
75 - Liz Hurley? Is she an MEP now?
78 - I’m working on it
Re. 65, I disagree - Charles Kennedy is at least an amiable lightweight. Fox is just smarmy.
TB speech latest: ‘Not for us the malaise of France, or the angst of Germany’. I look forward to seeing what the Guardian and Independent letters pages make of that (’shocking triumphalist jingoism’).
Still, I don’t imagine Polly Toynbee will mind too much, when he hasn’t insulted Sweden.
Tony Blair - “LibDems ruthless opportunists”. A great compliment from the PM !
81 - there isn’t a sufficiently recognised Swedish word, I suppose. “Not for us the smorgasboard of Sweden!” doesn’t really work.
Tony Blair “Never underestimate the Tories or overestimate the LibDems”
“LibDems ruthless street fighters locally but irrelevant on the national stage”
TB spending more time attacking the Lib Dems than the Tories.
Peter the Punter & Countryman.
There is some assimilation going on - you’ll see soon - but the actual reason the site was down is that my servers are hosted in Texas and got hit by a hurricane.
These things happen
TB Speech : If anyone wondered why Blair has won 3 elections we’ve seen it today. Excellent speech.
84 - The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about.
As Ken Livingstone points out in today’s Grauniad, for every eight voters Labour lost in 2005, 7 went to the Lib Dems and only one to the Tories.
Breaking News : Tories reject rule changes
Jack (84) notes: “TB spending more time attacking the Lib Dems than the Tories.”
Does this have any implications for the Scottish byelections, I wonder………..
Tories have rejected the change!
Must say that I enjoyed his slamming of the Liberal Democrats - so how many social democrats are going to Labour as he requested!
So it looks as though I am going to get a leadership vote then - what a Christmas present!
Worth a punt on Clarke? Thoughts welcome.
90 No new Tory leader until mid November !!!!!!!
89 John13. No implications for Scottish by elections I think.
Early days, but he has to get in the last two. I know one thing, if it is Davis versus another (except Clarke) he is likely to smash all opposition to pieces.
The Constitutional College of the Conservative Party has today, in a postal ballot, voted for the proposal to change the rules for electing the Party Leader, but by an insufficient majority to effect the change.
The result of the ballot is as follows:
Ballots issued: 1,141
Ballots returned: 1,001 (87.7%)
Number in favour of the proposal: 611 (61.0%)
Number against the proposal: 389 (38.9%)
Number of MPs in favour of the proposal: 132 (71.4%)
Number of MPs against the proposal: 53 (28.6%)
Number of volunteers in favour of the proposal: 446 (58.4%)
Number of volunteers against the proposal: 317 (41.5%)
Number of Peers and MEPs in favour of the proposal: 33 (63.5%)
Number of Peers and MEPs against the proposal: 19 (36.5%)
Number of void papers: 1
Commenting, the Conservative Party Chairman, Francis Maude said:
“I think it was very important for the whole Party to have the chance to look at the leadership rules before electing a new leader. Both MPs and the voluntary party have had that opportunity to do that - and they’ve decided to stick with the old system. It’s been a worthwhile debate and we’ll now get on with electing a new leader - hopefully in early December.”
Watching Sky it is also interesting to note Blair’s centralising tendencies continue and I am a little concerned about these court plans. He starts talking about 21st century crimes not needing 19th century court practices. But if that means that some innocent people will get convicted because of other priorities (which Falconer is not dismissing) this New Labour government will stoop to new levels of authoritarianism.
92 Nick12. Our Ken will be delighted with the result. Over the past month the campaign have been more and more convinced that a vote amongst the membership would benefit our Ken. The question is have the membership become tired of opposition or will they go for IDS Mk II ?
So have I got this right? The Tory party has a system to elect a leader that more than half of them didn’t want.
The good news is that the Tories are in a mess (but we knew that) - the bad news is that it may increase the chance of KC becoming leader.
re 76. What a load of rubbish the terms of use on Liam F’s website are. That he should feel the need to put this there suggests a very odd, paranoid, view of life and a failure to comprehend what the internet is about.
Why does he feel he needs to have that there? Although I do not always agree with his policy profile I had some respect for him. After reading the terms and conditions all I can conclude is that he has not got what it takes.
95 Rik W. New Tory leader “hopefully in early December”
Perhaps the new Tory leader will come down the chimney in the festive season ……. although that will not help our Ken
95 Rik W. New Tory leader “hopefully in early December”
Perhaps the new Tory leader will come down the chimney in the festive season ……. although that will not help our Ken
98 - “The Tory party has a system to elect a leader that more than half of them didn’t want.”
To be fair, I think you need two-thirds for a change to the Lib Dem constitution as well. But a narrow loss like this is probably the most divisive result - it maximises the number of people whose preferred option didn’t get through!
98 Icarus. Yes. You couldn’t make it up. Wonderful mess. perhaps TB should call another election for November and secure a historic fourth term. Lab Maj 100
Icarus is spot on. What a total farce.
Surely if everyone has their head screwed on they will next week agree a 50% MPs : 50% members Electoral College for the final which I suspect would get almost unanimous support.
To go ahead now with rules that have been rejected would be so absurd as to make the party look like a complete laughing stock.
On a separate point could the MPs when they get down to the final 2 just hold another ballot and challenge the loser to then drop out?
97. At least IDS had the courage to face the world as nature intended - as a baldie.
Interesting assessment on Sky. According to their correspondent KC is third in terms of MPs behind Fox and Davis.
A member of the Shadow Cabinet has bet this reporter a bottle of champers that KC will not get in the last two.
If it is Fox Vs Davis - it will rightly be a whitewash to DD. I can only see KC’s backers going for DD as the less right wing candidate - what a turnabout that would be, making this contest crazy!
In the end only KC has a chance against DD in the vote of activists in my view.
So it was Labour that won the Olympic bid and nothing to do with Lord Coe and the Olympic bid team,was the ashes victory also down to Labour?
106 - “A member of the Shadow Cabinet has bet this reporter a bottle of champers that KC will not get in the last two.”
Is the same kind of tactical voting that nobbled Portillo last time planned, do you think?
Whatever system they use there will be a problem if the MPs can’t make up their minds… if they had won the right to choose alone and split 51/49 you have a problem anyway. In 2001 the problem was the MPs split 59/54/53 between Clarke, IDS and Portillo, so whoever won among the membership would be opposed by 2/3 of the MPs. The party in the country wants to be led… I sometimes wonder whether the MPs do.
104 Mike L. No the rules are clear. The membership have the final say. Indeed any attempt to disenfranchise them would be open to legal action …… and further delay …. in which case the new Tory leader will come along with the Easter bunny
Not sure about this making us a laughing stock to be honest.
1: It undermines Howard and Maude and makes them look weak, but both will probably be gone soon.
2: It can be spun as democracy in action - is that a bad thing?
3: The general public do not care how the leader is elected or the run up to it, they just want one.
89. Yesterday McConnel spent all his speech attacking the SNP.
39. Umh, my preferences…. there’s a couple of new tory MPs who looked very good, but I couldn’t remember their name. Nick Herbert is one of them.
I’ve developping a strange attraction for middle-aged men, but Fox is not one of them!
I find Blunkett sexy. Between the Libdems there’s the new Taunton MP.
42. yes, I meant Goldsworthy. and Yvette Cooper too.
Katy Clark diden’t look good in the few photos I saw, but she looked very good when I saw her on SkyNews last week.
She’s already a serial rebel.
111 James M. Good try. It’s a shambles. With spin like yours try for a job in the Downing Street Press Office !!
If the turnout in the parliamentary sections had been improved, then the result could have been much closer.
I think that the result is excellent news. Constituency chairmen form just 440 members of an electoral college of c.1100. They must have voted heavily against the rule changes in order to produce this result.
I think it would be a pity if the run off were not between Kenneth Clarke and David Davis, as that is the very clear preference of the membership.
That said, if the final ballot among MPs produces a massive lead for David Davis (say 50%+), it would probably be sensible for the second-placed candidate to withdraw.
111/113 James M. Tim Bell : “The party (Tories) are in a complete shambles ! ”
Hear hear.
Remarkable pıece of work by the Torıes. Sıx months wasted arguıng over the rule change whıch then ıs accepted but not by a suffıcıent margın so a system supported by only 38% ıs goıng to elect someone to go on to lose the next electıon. Labour must be laughıng theır heads off.
105 - Baldie, would nature have ever intended anything like IDS?
Re champagne yes, but was that member of the shadow cabinet batting for Davis? Clarke will now get more backers because there will be enough moderates that will not want the contest to become a joke between the unelectable right and ……Liam Fox.
117 Houndtang. The timing of the Tory announcement was either inspired or madness.
You can take the view that it deflects from TB’s speech or the juxtaposition of a PM in good form against a rudderless Tory party. I favour the latter.
There has been some predictably juvenile commentary from the usual suspects on here about the ballot result. Personally, like Sean, I am delighted. To have returned the decision to the MPs alone in my view would have been a retrograde step and profoundly undemocratic.
What will probably happen now is that the MPs will get together to pressure the weaker contenders to drop out in order to chose a single candidate (as last time), or failing that, will short cut to presenting the membership with a choice of two. I suspect that will be Davis and Clarke. May, Lansley and Rifkind must now surely drop out and I would bet that Cameron will also see sense and pull out. Whether Fox can be pursuaded remains to be seen but he is struggling to pick up new supporters.
Watch this space immediately after Conference!
“I favour the latter.” [comment by Jack StraW]
115 - it would be interesting to know the geographical spread of constituency chairman answering for the yes and no camps.
Up here in the far north there was very much the feeling that with no Tory MP for 200+ miles, we would be completely disenfranchisement if the rule changes had gone through and so it was voted against on that basis. Incidentally, the question of who was favoured as successor didn’t even come upso the decision wasn’t made on tactical grounds.
The status quo option wasn’t much liked either and the ideal solution would have been the formalised college just seen for the rule change.
Rik, if this vote had been taken in the run up to a general election, it would be a fiasco. This far out from a general election, all it means is that we have a leader at Christmas, rather than a leader in mid November.
It is the proper reward for blind arrogance towards the party membership on the part of its leadership.
“To have returned the decision to the MPs alone in my view would have been a retrograde step and profoundly undemocratic”.
I’m not sure. The flexibility of a parliamentary party ballot seems much more appropriate in the British constitutional system.
Jack W, - DO not get me wrong it is a shambles, just a manageable one in my view.
Most people could not care less how our leader is elected out there - it could be drawn out of a hat like a raffle.
Only hope is that DD gets over 50% of MPs, and then if he wins the activist vote has real strength in depth - worst case is that FOX, Davis and Clarke all get similar vote numbers.
122 Tabman. Did you see me in the conference hall with my laptop !!
Signed : Jack man of StraW and Kinkell
317 members of the voluntary party voted no. Given that many of the volunteers are regional Chairmen, paid agents, ACD’s and so forth, I would have expected them to largely fall in behind the party leadership.
I expect the 317 include the majority of the 440 association Chairmen, and probably the overwhelming majority of association Chairmen in constituencies that don’t have Conservative MPs.
Even more so than before today’s vote means that everything depends on the mood in Blackpool next week and how the different candidates shape up. DD has got to show that he is prime minsterial material - he has to make the speech of his life and somehow to develop a presence that has so far been sadly lacking.
KC will put in barn-storming performance; Cameron will set down his marker for next time while Malcolm Rifkind might just do quite well in the conference setting.
While the final short-list depends on MPs they are going to be swayed by the mood of the conference.
It is all there for DD to play for - has he got what it takes?
The worst part of it is that Tony Blair will not face a serious challenge from the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament any time before the Christmas recess.
127 - Jack, you should take tips from David Blunkett - look who he’s ahd on his laptop!
130 surely the leader of the opposition lives next door to TB?
What a first conference for me to visit then! Maybe I will be waited upon hand and foot by MP’s wanting my vote!
I got a paper reserved seating pass today for day one’s main speeches - does anyone know what that entails? It says I can get in platform/reserved seating. I am not going to have to make a barnstorming speech myself and wrestle myself a leadership bid am I?!
115. No - per Rik W at 95 the volunteers voted 58% in favour of the proposal.
Every section voted in favour of the proposal.
126 James M. True. It is a manageable shambles, but I would think that the average joe would think presently that the Tories couldn’t organize a shindig in a distillery ……. government in waiting ???
“Whom the Gods would destroy they first make mad”.
This does not look good- KC vs DD. With an outside chance of a stitch up to kill off KC…
So now the leader will be decided with the old rules or is there time to make a new proposal?
What is the timeline now? Will the new leader be in place before the new year or not?
Last time the two candidates were within one vote of each other so MPs gave no lead. If Davis is easily top with say Clarke some way behind, the argument will be put ‘do you want to reject someone in whom MPs have confidence and elect someone in whom they do not have confidence?’ Not an easy argument to deal with. If we end up with just two candidates, of course , it will be very clear who the MPs want. It would suit Davis( probably )to try to engineer that outcome. It would suit Clarke if Fox came third since this would take votes from Davis and narrow the gap between the latter and Clarke. Fox/Cameron will try to argue ‘vote for me to knock out Clarke otherwise he might win amongst the membership.’ That will, however, potentially depress the Davis vote sufficiently to make the gap between he and Clarke sufficiently narrow that Clarke has a real chance of winning amongst the membership. Deep waters.
130 You write The worst part of it is that Tony Blair will not face a serious challenge from the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament any time before the Christmas recess.
…and if DD does get it then TB will not face a serious challenge for the rest of this parliament. better late and have somebody effective than early and have the man with virtually no name recognition amongst the general public.
More OT than ever…seperated at birth? Tony Blair and Ethel Merman?
The decision to reject the Howard-Maude changes was a wise one. However the system we have kept is not great either. Howard-Maude should have put up an electoral college system. We need to get shot of these convoluted systems that encourage tactical voting and deny members a decent choice (such as last time). On the bright side I will now endeavour to listen to the final two candidates when they come husting for votes, which should be interesting. I only hope though that we get a decent choice, between Davis/Fox and either Cameron/Clarke. A Davis vs Fox leadership run off is not appealling.
Yes, if the best that KC can do is wield out 30 candidates (who I admit will now have a vote!) to back him, it could be a sign he is in real trouble.
Either that or he has 30 new MPs in a cupboard ready to show their support. It seems at the moment many of his old backers are falling behind Davis, the key for KC will be picking up the waiverers and dumped candidates supporters. At the moment his roll call of supporters looks like a who’s who of former cabinet ministers from a discredited Major government.
The decision to reject the Howard-Maude changes was a wise one. However the system we have kept is not great either. Howard-Maude should have put up an electoral college system. We need to get shot of these convoluted systems that encourage tactical voting and deny members a decent choice (such as last time). On the bright side I will now endeavour to listen to the final two candidates when they come husting for votes, which should be interesting. I only hope though that we get a decent choice, between Davis/Fox and either Cameron/Clarke. A Davis vs Fox leadership run off is not appealling.
“To have returned the decision to the MPs alone in my view would have been a retrograde step and profoundly undemocratic”
Rik -I agree 100% but then you go on to spoil it by saying - “What will probably happen now is that the MPs will get together to pressure the weaker contenders to drop out in order to chose a single candidate (as last time)” so you expect the MP’s to act in profoundly undemocratic way, stuffing the party and wonder why the Tories are in the mess they are.
Yours,
Predictably juvenile as always ….
The decision to reject the Howard-Maude changes was a wise one. However the system we have kept is not great either. Howard-Maude should have put up an electoral college system. We need to get shot of these convoluted systems that encourage tactical voting and deny members a decent choice (such as last time). On the bright side I will now endeavour to listen to the final two candidates when they come husting for votes, which should be interesting. I only hope though that we get a decent choice, between Davis/Fox and either Cameron/Clarke. A Davis vs Fox leadership run off is not appealling.
131 Tabman. Blunkett : ” look who he’s had on his laptop …”
You could have phrased that a little more elegantly
133 James M. Perhaps you could hold up a pb.com placard on the platform
Yes, if the best that KC can do is wield out 30 candidates (who I admit will now have a vote!) to back him, it could be a sign he is in real trouble.
Either that or he has 30 new MPs in a cupboard ready to show their support. It seems at the moment many of his old backers are falling behind Davis, the key for KC will be picking up the waiverers and dumped candidates supporters. At the moment his roll call of supporters looks like a who’s who of former cabinet ministers from a discredited Major government.
I wonder if Davis will tacitly endorse semi-tactical voting for Fox to keep Clarke out of the runoff. All it would take is something like: “Liam Fox has conducted himself in a thoughtful way through the campaign. I agree with very many of his insights and hope to continue working closely with him”.
Was the site down this late afternoon or was a problem just in my computer?
Did Tony think he’s a cabaret performer or something of that sort?
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40847000/jpg/_40847804_blairgetty203.jpg
Am I the only one in thinking Cherie looks like Michael Jackson in this photo?
http://images.thetimes.co.uk/TGD/picture/0,,231424,00.jpg
Mandy could be casted as the evil with in “Snow White”
http://images.thetimes.co.uk/TGD/picture/0,,231423,00.jpg
On a more serious note, Toby Benn has been taken to the hospital today. It seems his condition are “comfortable” now.
Re Blair’s speech.
I’m probably the only one, but I don’t like his delivery. He got on my nerve seeing him speaking on TV.
Then I went to read the full text of his speech and I agree with the majoirty of what he said
Anyway the Tories attempt to sabotage the site only lasted 4 hours
On the rule change Howard is I understand “spitting blood” . A rather unfortunate turn of phrase I said to my mole !! “Don’t qoute me even indirectly” said the velvet gentleman, “he’s a bit touchy on the dracula allusions”
149 - the site was down for me too.
LOL at the Cherie Blair/Wacko Jacko pic.
148. He wouldn’t even have to say that. He would only need to say to Derek Conway and his closest allies: “vote Fox”.
151. Book Value, you’re too fast to reply. How could you do it?! Less than a minute to cut and past Cherie/Wacko link, see it and reply!
150. Jack, it was Francis Maude’s anger
Just seen Blair’s speech repeated on BBC News 24;it had a real warmth,humanity,and flowed in the way a Neil Kinnock leader’s speech(nice to see him in the audience looking well!)used to-at the end I was chanting ‘Ten more years! Ten more years!’(obviously most of those will be Gordon’s)-the news of the Tory leadership confusion has put an even bigger smile on my face!!!
I don’t think it would be wise for Davis to get involved in tactical voting. If he is as strong in Parliament as the indications suggest then he should just try and maximise his own final round support, and challenge the membership to reject the clear choice of the MPs. If he’s up against Fox so much the better, since he can then present himself unambiguously as a moderate.
153 - my IT training is not wasted! The photo was a very good spot - you should send it to Private Eye and win £5.
154 - Do Old Queen Street pay well, Patrick?
155 - seconded. He shouldn’t really be scared of any contender.
154.-”it had a real warmth,humanity”
He gave me the opposite reaction.
156. what is “IT”?
Talking about photos from Brighton, is this Blunkett’s dog?
http://images.thetimes.co.uk/TGD/picture/0,,231223,00.jpg
It seems something is missing here. Where’s the fourth leg of the dog?
159 - Information Technology.
The dog is very skinny. It looks more like a puma, or a cat standing very close to the camera.
154 Patrick. I thought it a rather fine speech. The hacks will say yawn yawn, but it’s not aimed at them but at middle Britain, and the speech pushed all the right buttons.
I understand that the DD camp is a little nervous at the outcome of the vote. They relize that our Ken will be a formidable challenger if he gets to the final round. I expect double dealing
Do you have any views on the “candidates letter” to the Telegraph this morning, Jack? I hope for your sake as a KC supporter that it wasn’t orchestrated by his campaign.
161.”The hacks will say yawn yawn”
Jack, do you mean reactions like this one?
There was nothing new in the speech which was [full of] tired, rhetorical flourishes, failing to address the real world of inequality, insecurity and the bloodshed of war. Mr Blair peddled these failed policies of privatisation dressed up as reform. Why should the policies which have failed over the last eight years suddenly work in the last 18 months of Blair’s administration? Labour party members want to move on, not be held back by Blair and Brown
You should guess who said it.
Meanwhile Frank Dobson has launched the “Save the NHS” campaign.
162. It was an ambitious letter: they apparently want to win many seats next time
155. Alex, don’t be such a spoilsport. The machinations of the multi-ballot system are half the fun of Tory leadership elections.
162 alex. At this stage the campaign is about momentum and news value. On both counts the letter was of value, more so, now that members in losing seats will have a vote. It’s part of our Ken’s continuing message - we don’t want to lose again and again and again !
163 - “You should guess who said it.”
Mark Seddon, or Alan Simpson?
167.No, John McDonnell.
“What a first conference for me to visit then! Maybe I will be waited upon hand and foot by MP’s wanting my vote”
You now have an excellent chance of being wined and dined by Tory MPs (insofar as it’s possible to be wined and dined in Blackpool).
I’m actually starting to feel saorry for the poor old Tory Party(must be sickening for something);poor old Hezza just spoke on BBC 24;he sounds so pensive,almost apologetic-when you compare this to the dominance of the Tories over the whole agenda from 1979-post Black Wednesday,somehow the theme