Will Walter’s eviction depress Labour’s by-election turnout?
September 29th, 2005-
How will tonight’s elections go?
As well as the PR disaster at the Labour conference itself the forceful eviction of 82 year-old Walter Wolfgang came on the eve of the two by-elections where the party is defending pretty safe majorities in Scotland.
Forcing the escapee from Nazi Germany from the conference hall and the constant repetition of the incident over the past 36 hours on television cannot have helped the Labour effort to get its vote out today in Livingston for Robin Cook’s old Westminster seat and Glasgow Cathcart where the ex-MSP is now in jail.
When Labour officials chose September 29th for the votes they must have thought that they would be helped by all the attendant publicity. Well there’s been coverage alright but not quite of the sort that enthuses activists.
We’ll know in a few hours just how the voting has gone but almost certainly some votes will have been lost because of what happened in Brighton.
Also overnight we should get the results of this week’s Thursday council by-elections. We have not got an exhaustive list but those we know about are at:-
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Methinks Mr Wolfgang is the only memory most people will have of the Conference… the ladies who work in my local launderette were talking of nothing else this morning - the only other political event that they’ve noticed in the 15 years I’ve been using the place was the attack on the Twin Towers!
What’s that about pebbles and avalanches?
The Bournemouth seat is currently Lib Dem.
the others I know about are
Oswestry/Royton and West Felton/Ind
Shepway/New Romney Town/Lab
Fife/Auchestool and Burntisland East/SNP (although I probably need to check the spelling as my handwriting is v poor!)
A Labour majority of 2,000 over the SNP would be my guess for Livingston. I won’t try and predict Cathcart.
I sincerely hope so !
Hard to think of more of a PR disaster than man handling an 82 year old for having the audacity to speak out and then detaining him under the anti terror act,all in the gaze of the world’s media.
Whilst it seemed to be a very lack lustre conference,Brown trying to dump Blair,Blair determined to stay I guess as a lame duck Prime Minister, with the usual waffle in his speech about more Police,better Healthcare and Education,(whats he been doing for the past 8 years?).
Not exactly motivating for the voters in Livingstone and Cathcart,am hoping for an SNP upset but I guess Labour will still hang onto both seats with very much reduced majorities.
3. In terms of %, what type of majority are you predicting for Livingston?
2. My info says the Fife seat was independent-held:
May 2003 result:
Independent 479 29.8%
Labour 462 28.7%
SNP 400 24.8%
LibDem 269 16.7%
MAJORITY 17
TURNOUT 51.8%
5- Obviously depends on turnout, so difficult to say. However, my gut feeling (obviously highly unscientific) tells me the vote will totally splinter between the SNP, Lib Dems, Greens and perhaps the Tories. An SNP gain would be fantastic as it would frighten the life out of Labour and reduce the government majority to 64, still it is highly unlikely IMHO.
Several bad by-election defeats in this Parliament giving the Tories between 200-203 seats and the Lib Dems around 65 would be the surest sign of a Labour defeat in 2009.
For a moment I thought there was a “Badger Farm Party” in Winchester. Which is more plausible than some of the Livingston candidates.
7. “Obviously depends on turnout”
That’s why I asked you. Just to have a better idea of your 2,000 majority prediction.
Press Association is claiming it could be close in Cathcart:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uklatest/story/0,1271,-5311233,00.html?gusrc=ticker-103704
9- Well, if I was guessing I would say between 10-14%.
10. Thanks.
9- It would be pure bliss if Labour lost both seats. Cue increased talk of a quick Brown succession.
What time are the results expected?
What time are the results expected?
I predict:
Livingston: Lab 12k, SNP 8k, LD 7k, Con 2k, Grn 600, SSP 400
Cathcart: Lab 7k, SNP 5k, LD 2k, Lally 1k, Con 1k, SSP 500
In Livingston, only the Lib Dems have the capacity to challenge Labour to the point of winning or coming close. They also have the capacity to be squeezed badly by the SNP. The SNP or the Lib Dems might come 2nd, but the SNP would be at least 4k behind Labour.
13: I believe the results are expected at c. 00:30
There’s also a district council election in Rother, Sussex - safe Tory seat.
Alan J you are correct - I misread the columns on my CCHQ sheet
15- Cathcart is ‘a cliffhanger’ according to media speculation, so your prediction would be a good result for Labour.
Livingston may well be closer (again according to media reports) than expected, then again they said something very similar about Cheadle IIRC!
Care to offer a prediction Nick
16: Sorry, see it was on your list.
18.”they said something very similar about Cheadle IIRC! ”
yes, Sky News’ coverage of Cheadle started with the journalist saying it was “too close to call”, then it became “Libdems have won with a norrow majority”, then “Libdems have won” and finally at the end “Libdems won with an increased majority”.
21- I just don’t trust the media reports now, with such a low turnout anything could happen.
19: Er, barely - I know nothing about either seat. On general principles I’d expect a low poll with a slashed but surviving Labour majority in both. The PA report doesn’t seem to be based on anything very concrete - just that it’s a lowish poll.
18 - “closer than expected”? Is there any indication whether it is close Lab/SNP or close Lab/LD? My feeling is that the SNP is in the doldrums at the moment and is not likely to get close to Labour, unless Labour does something really stupid like … er … assaulting an octogenarian … er… maybe Labour will come third?
I assume the press reports mean the SNP. Although I’m still hoping against hope of a ‘Shock as Tories win in double by-election’ headline tomorrow- I’ll go find my pills now
SNP are in the doldrums…I mean they only took as many seats off Labour as the lib dems did last May….
If turnout is at 37% then result based on 2005 GE should be
Lab 14,428
SNP 6,099
Lib Dem 4,348
Con 2,852
SSP 508
I realise that it’s not as simple as that but it should be a rough guide to how well the respective parties have fared.
26 - but not in the Central belt, and not very well compared with the advance by the Lib Dems
any news on the council by elections yet?
29. It’s usually hard to find news about the local council by-elections on Thursday night. It’s easier to find them next morning when local newspapers will come out and official council websites will be updated.
Turnout is at 38.6% so result based on 2005 GE will be
Lab 15,052
SNP 6,362
Lib Dem 4,536
Con 2,975
SSP 530
29 - in my by-election, I broke the record for the lowest number of votes ever cast for any candidate in local elections in the entire history of Croydon. That was three months ago, but I thought you might be interested anyway
Turnout in Livingston is 38.6% and 31.97% in Cathcart, a Scottish low.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4292034.stm
Hmm, whoever loses will blame turnout…
Any news on when the result for Livingston is due, should i just go to bed to hang on for another half hour or so? Tough call…
Or the antics at Brighton, Nick….. Depends who loses, of course…. It seems to be taking a long time, with such a low turnout…. Does this mean a recount (or two)….????
36.”Does this mean a recount (or two)….???? ”
2 or 3, becuase with a low turnout the first placed candidate is too near the last placed candidate.
26 - Lib Dems up 6.3% and the SNP down 2.4% across Scotland. Hardly a stunning success for the SNP, Mark.
Livingston result was declared at 01:18 last may.
In Cheadle they were more or less an hour faster in the by.election’s count compared to the GE’s one.
Devine hold - majority of circ. 3000.
Devine returned - majority of circ. 3000.
I seem to remember that 00.30 was the time ‘pen’d’ in for a declaration from Livingston… not sure though.
On the right thread this time…
Livingston
ukip 108
all 33
ind 55
snp 9639
lab 12319
ld 4362
soc 32
con 1993
ssp? 407
green 529
Cathcart
Lab hold
Good solid result, 42% (?) of the vote in a traditionally moderately secure seat on a low turnout… pretty much as people had forecast really…
…well off to bed, the revolution continues apace
So, going by Vino’s scaled-down figures for the May result, a medium-sized swing from Lab to SNP, with LDs slightly and Tories heavily down - presumably some tactical voting there. The SNP should be mildly pleased, Labour mildly relieved, but nothing much for anyone, really, especially in view of the turnout.
A 10% swing for SNP. Pretty decent performance for them at the end.
I think the Libdems are more or less at May’s level.
Good result for Labour
Good result for SNP
poor result for Lib Dems
Very poor result for Tories
Wouldn’t say poor result for LDs Vino - mediocre, yes; poor no. Vote held up from GE and didn’t get squeezed. Fair nuff spose…
32 - If it’s not to painful how many did you get. The lowest I’ve seen is 3 for the Natural Law Party in a district council by-election. As you need 10 people to sign the nomination papers I was impressed!
That was the Fieidway by-election on the 16th June, where John Loony got 6 - I’ve wondered whether he had to cmapaign hard to achieve that
Hmm,just caughtthe Livingston result on BBC 24,I did a very quick sum in my head(Yes,Iwas taught ‘O’level maths at a state grammar!),and got the swing at 9-10%Lab-SNP;not too bad,I doubt many Scots Labour will worry unduly-any further word on Cathcart?
50 - I got 6 votes. The previous record for Croydon was 13 votes, set by some bloke in 1900. My previous low was 15. I was cautiously hoping that I would be able to break the record, because (a) it was a safe Labour ward (b) usually with low turnouts (c) the smallest electorate of any ward in Croydon, but I was not expecting to manage it because (a) even without campaigning I usually get more than 1% of the votes in by-elections (b) the turnout was higher than expected [28%]. I was actually expecting about 18 or 20 votes, and 6 was way beyond my wildest expectations.
Incidentally, I think that there was a council by-election in Kensington & Chelsea in 1987 in which an independent candidate got 1 vote.
The number of votes I get in local by-elections varies enormously according to whether I do leafleting (62, 44) or not (15, 25, 15, 21, 6).
http://www.croydonloony.co.uk
click on “Elections” or “Fieldway”
Just re-scrolled the threads,saw Cathcart was safely held,sends me to a happier night’s sleep!(I can’t help but re-count that this was the parlimantary seat that Teddy Taylor lost against the natinal tide at the 1979 general elcetion,hence his being exported south for the 1980 Southend East by-electiom-which he leld by 430 votes,against a 12.9% swing Con-Lab!
Has anyone actually got a breakdown of the Cathcart figures?
52 - Cathcart result:
Lab 5,811 (37.7%) -1.5
SNP 3,406 (22.1%) +5.8
Con 2,306 (15.0%) +2.1
LD 1,557 (10.1%) +2.3
Ind 856 (5.6%) -5.2
SSP 819 (5.3%) -7.3
Green 548 (3.6%)
Ind 59
UKIP 54
Thanks, John. so a 3.66% swing to the SNP: very poor.
from PA
Jim Devine (Lab) 12,319 (41.79%, -9.31%)
Angela Constance (SNP) 9,639 (32.70%, +11.14%)
Charles Dundas (LD) 4,362 (14.80%, -0.61%)
Gordon Lindhurst (C) 1,993 (6.76%, -3.39%)
David Robertson (Green) 529 (1.79%)
Steven Nimmo (SSP) 407 (1.38%, -0.40%)
Peter Adams (UKIP) 108 (0.37%)
Melville Brown (Ind) 55 (0.19%)
John Allman (AFC) 33 (0.11%)
Brian Gardner (SPGB) 32 (0.11%)
Lab maj 2,680 (9.09%)
10.22% swing Lab to SNP
Electorate 76,376; Turnout 29,477 (38.59%, -19.47%)
2005: Lab maj 13,097 (29.54%) - Turnout 44,337 (58.07%)
Cook (Lab) 22,657 (51.10%); Constance (SNP) 9,560 (21.56%); Dundas
(LD) 6,832 (15.41%); Ross (C) 4,499 (10.15%); Nimmo (SSP) 789 (1.78%)
Hi John at 53. The by election you mention was on October 27th 1987 in the Abingdon ward. There was a 19% poll and Len A A Green (ind) got the magic 1 vote !
Winchester
Oliver’s Battery & Badger Farm Result:
Liberal Democrat 853 votes 57.1%
Conservative 584 votes 39.1%
Labour 46 votes 3.8%
Turnout was 46.45%.
LibDem Hold.
Slip of the keyboard - Labour 56
59 - did he live in the ward? If so then presumably he attained the coveted situation of no one else voting for him!
Result for Barton ward in Salford city council:
Lab 676
Libdem 389
Con 189
UKIP 137
Ind 93
turnout 17.14%
Fairly happy with the Cathcart result a decent, Livingston a bit disapointing but not much effort was put in. The 10% swing in Livingston is historically poor for the SNP and the 3.7% swing is their worst result in a by-election since 1982.
Not sure how many people saw the BBC 2 coverage but it was pretty good. The SNP deputy leader and the Labour women appeared to genuinelly hate one and other and the Lib Dem’s (Robert Brown) attempt to defend their by-election tactics (campaigning against hospital closures which they and their Labour partners had enacted) was fairly amusing as well!
Not really sure I can explain the difference in swings but I very much doubt it has anything to do with one being Holyrood and one being Westminster. The issues in the two constituencies were broadly the same.
64. The Green lady had a decent performance at the end in Cathcart.
I expected the result to be a bit closer in Cathcart (but then I read that SNP was concentreting more resources in Livingston).
It’s better not to comment tory’s performance in Livingston and to remember not to trust the Libdems when they claim they’re the real challenger.
Barton result last time (2004):
CLARK Neville LAB 1,135
HOLT Renee CON 725
JOLLEY David LAB 984
MULLEN John LAB 1,238
NICHOLLS Alan CON 692
PATTEN Alan LIB DEM 855
Compared with this, seems to be Lab nearly halved, LibDems more than halved, Conservatives down by three quarters!
The Independent in Cathcart flopped, didn’t he - wasn’t he fancied to do quite well? So far quite a good clutch of results for Labour -the swings at the Scottish results are modest by by-election standards. I suspect the Labour conference overall has been received more positively than the focus on the heckling eviction might suggest.
66. Cathcart’s result is very good for Labour, but the Livingston’s result is not that good for Lab (even if the swing could have been worse).
66 - I was atonished that Pat Lally did so badly. I thought he would be at worst 4th. He got massive coverage in the media, was well known locally and had done well last time round. It had previously been thought that his intervention last time had cost the SNP but it appears it may have been Labour.
The Labour candidate in Cathcart (Charlie Gordon) will be an excellent addition to the parliament. He was one of the few prominent figures in Scottish local government although you have to wonder if had he still been leader of Glasgow City Council he would have been willing to trade that in for the life of a back-bench MSP.
The Tories did better in the Winchester result - previous 2002 figures were Lib 922 Con 359. Fascinating ward name - looking at the Winchester site, they seem to go in for exotic names.
Bournemouth UA, Kinson North:
Libdem 720
Lab 640
Con 456
UKIP 126
Bournemouth Kinson Ward, Lib Dem Hold (reduced majority and %)although Con vote and up but still well third.
LD 720. Lab 645, Con 456, Other 126
Andrea, minds think alike or what?
67 - Andrea Livingston isn’t too bad in the context of previous by-elections. The SNP were averaging swings of around 15% in the last few years. Winning Cathcart is a very good result for Labour, an opposition party could hardly have wished for better circumstances in which to conduct a by-election.
Irrespective of swings Labour won and that all that people will remember. They’ll be glad that they’ve managed to prevent the SNP from really building up support prior to 2007.
72. At least they couldn’t accuse us to be the same poster
Think we may need to watch the Derwentside result. No Con this time as I view it, instead BNP!.
Last time Lab 1360, LD 428, Con 290
73. It isn’t even good. It speaks volumes that a party is happy to have got “only” a 10% swing against.
The swing is more or less like the one achieved in Paisley in 1997.
73.”Labour won and that all that people will remember”
To be fair, I think no one (except us) will remember nothing of thse by-elections in a dew days!
77 - If the SNP had won we would hear a lot about it (well maybe just in Scotland!). Most of the Scottish media is Glasgow based (BBC, STV, The Sun, The Record, The Times, The Herald) and had the SNP won Cathcart I’m sure that it would have changed a lot of media perceptions about he way Scottish politics is going.
78.”If the SNP had won we would hear a lot about it (well maybe just in Scotland!). ”
Maybe they would have reported it in Italian newspapers too. They usually pick up “strange” stories from UK politics.
79 - How are the Lega Nord (hope I got that right, my Italian isn’t nearly as good as your English I’m afraid!) doing these days. Any chance of Milan breaking away from the rest of Italy?
East Sussex CC Pevensey and Westham Con 1293 Lib 406 Lab 147
May result Con 2574 Lib 1553 Lab 834
Wealden Council Pevensey and Westham Con 1229 Lib 469 Lab 143
2003 result Con 1135/1233/1245 Lib 781/797 ( only 2 candidates )
Very low turn out as seems to be the case in all elections held yesterday .
80. Lega (perfect spelling Max) is doing quite well in polls. Not many chance to see Milan becoming independent though.
Now the government presented a bill to change the electoral system. The opposition is angry and they want to block all parliamentary works. There’s, as always, problems and differences in the ruling coalition and in the opposition the sitaution is not better in term of unity.
Derwentside DC, Stanley Hall
Lab 599
Libdem 199
BNP 118
Turnout 24.58%
There were also contests in:
Oswestry, Shepway, Rother and Fife
Livingston and Cathcart:
Who will be most disappointed? SNP in my view. No victories, not up to the sort of performance they have produced in the past.
Who will be happiest? I think Labour
I think the tories might have hoped for more of a comeback in Cathcart, but I suspect everyone in Cathcart is blaming Lally for distracting voters from the big choice on offer.
85. The Libdems should be disappointed too.
Shepway result Con 560 Lab 175 Lib 111
Con gain from Lab (It was Labours only seat on the council) with a swing of 16% on a higher turnout
result 2003: Con 438 Lab 360 Con 358 Lab 234 Lib 129 Lib 121
I agree with Andrea - did anyone expect the Tories to do anything at either of these by-elections? Their vote was heavily squeezed by the “only-we-can-beat-Labour” brigade - it went (surprise surprise) down in Livingstone and up in Cathcart. On the other hand the LibDems must be gutted not to have done better. The SNP shot their tactical-voting Fox. If Livingstone was in England and there was no SNP, it surly would have been a LD gain. They also performed very poorly in Cathcart.
88. The game played by Labour in Livingston (one day suggesting SNP was the real challenger and the next suggesting Libdems were the main challenger) probably helped them to hold the seat. if the SNP was the clear only challenger, they could have tried to squeeze the Libdems and Labour would have been in serious trouble.
From the English locals so far reported, the Tories seem to have performed rather well increasing their share of the vote and a gain from Labour. So far at least, the ’shambles’/'dissaray’/'chaos’ appears to be rather helpful…
Can anyone explain to me why, if Labour and the Lib Dems are in co-alition at Holyrood, they don’t have an electoral pact for Scottish Parliamentary by-elections?
91. I was wondering the same thing. They certainly couldn’t campaign against each other claiming the government is bad! They could always say “vote me to better balance the coalition”, but it’s still a bit weird.
92 - Because they don’t like each other very much, is about the sum of it I think.
88 - I’m not sure how well the LD’s perform in these type of New Town seats and I’m not sure what an English equivalent would be. I excpected our vote to go up by a bit more in Cathcart but its not bad. Its often difficult for the party that isn’t the principal challenger to do well in a by-election. Its also a much better result than in Brent East, Leicster South etc.
I would have thought the LD’s would be a bit disapointed with the Cathcart result given how well they did in Glasgow South in the GE.
90 - Maybe we should have leadership contests more often - if thats possible!
92 - The Lib Dems do attack the government. They had a petition going round Livingston to save acute services at St Johns Hospital despite the fact that they were cut as part of the Labour/Liberal executive policy.
Just because they are in coalition doesn’t mean they agree with every policy that the Government is implementing. One party performing well and the other badly in a by-election, possibly with one particular issue being highlighted, gives one or the other useful leverage within the coalition.
96- Do they realize they look a bit ridiculus (Tabman, it’s not a personal attack!)?
96 - did i miss something? Why did the Labour candidate say in his speech that services at the hospital weren’t being cut? Or was that just in addition to what had already gone?
I suppose Labour can feel best pleased having held both Scottish seats and although SNP had the best individual result in Livingston will be most disappointed . All parties should be disappointed with Cathcart an abysmal turn out . Labour rushed the byelection date presumably to stop the other parties mounting an effective campaign and this clearly worked .
Not sure what we can deduce from the English Council Byelections . The Conservatives had swings in most seats but this is probably more due to the abysmal turnout all round . Little sign of enthusiasm for any party from the electorate at this stage of the electoral cycle .
97 - You can’t be against something you’ve already voted in favour of though!
101 - Max, you can. I voted Tory for Norfolk County Council and regretted it within seconds…
97.”Just because they are in coalition doesn’t mean they agree with every policy that the Government is implementing.”
They’re part of the government that is implementing these policies. They’ve voted for them!
You may like this one - I’ve just been told by one of my colleagues that at a local election gone by he voted Liberal Democrat by post but continued campaigning for the Labour candidate (a personal friend) up to and including polling day. So apparently you can campaign for something you’ve already voted against!
99 - He would argue its part of a reorganisation (which is fair enough) that will benefit people in Livingston but acute services is definately being closed. Funnily enough my flat-mate (who’s a Doctor and a Sinn Fein supporter) used to work their.
103 - you think every member of the cabinet agrees with every policy Labour implement in the UK? Being in formal coalition means that compromises have to be made. There is less scope for opposition in parliament but that doesn’t mean you can’t usefully use the electorate for your purpose.
104. I once knocked up for Edwina Currie in the Euro elections 1994 when she stood in the Bedfordshire and Milton Keynes superconstituency. I couldn’t however bring myself to actually vote for her.
On a more serious note, the LibDems are going to remain the kingmakers in the Scottish Parliament for the foreseeable future owing to the PR system and so it makes little sense for them not to burn their bridges with a potential future partner by striking a formal alliance against the interests of one of those possible future partners.
Having said that, we all know that a Lib Dem coalition governing with the SNP would be extremely difficult and an SNP/Tory coalition highly improbable so in reality it is going to be a Labour/Lib Dem tryst for the foreseeable future.
106.”you think every member of the cabinet agrees with every policy Labour implement in the UK?”
Do you see member of cabinet campaigning against some policies they’ve voted for (Clare Short doesn’t count)?
[103] As far as Livingston is concerned, since there is no coalition at Westminister, it is obvious that all parties will fight the by-election. As far as Cathcart is concerned, the Scottish Executive is based on a coalition agreement, a compromise between the two parties. This does not mean that the two parties agree on anything beyond the rubric of the coalition agreement.
As far as the result is concerned, the comment that the SNP are still floating, but without a working propellor is fair enough. Lib Dems- not much progress in the Central belt. SSP- utter disaster- the looney tunes are down there with the rest of the nutters. Pat Lally in Cathcart- serves him right. So Scottish politics are still in a holding pattern as the Labour vote continues to erode.
109 - no but you might see Labour candidates doing so in by-elections.
[105] Max- you, a baby bluenose, sharing the same air as Fenians (I mean real ones)? Whatever next??
110.”As far as Cathcart is concerned, the Scottish Executive is based on a coalition agreement, a compromise between the two parties.”
They’ve accepted some policies through a compromise. They should respect it until the end of this term. I really don’t like this attitude.
111. So I should expect that the Libdem candidate would have rebelled if elected . We will never know.
[110] Exactly - I was being faux naif in my original suggestion. I suspect that co-alition partners in the Dail Eirann and elsewhere have always fought each other in by-elections.
[113] Hey Andrea- whats not to like? We should tell the electorate what we would do different if we had more power or influence. It’s dishonest to pretend that the compromise is more than administrative convenience. Don’t much like Scottish Labour, but will work with them on the basis of a compromise. Would still prefer a Lib Dem led administration under a Lib Dem First Minister enacting more Lib dem policies- hypocritical to pretend otherwise…
115.”We should tell the electorate what we would do different if we had more power or influence.”
if you accept a compromise over a policy, it means that tha policy wasn’t so important for you at the end.
I would have no problems to this type of campaign during the Scottish GE, but I don’t like it very muchwhile the coalition agreement is still working.
Btw, I see your point.
116.”problems to”
problems WITH
Andrea, comprpomises and coalitions are everywhere, national governments, local government. Seems that to date in Scotland the Lib Demns have done reasonably well out of it, even these not sound but not good results for them have their vote and certainly percentage vote much higher than when than went into the co-alition, as James O says the Labour vote appears to be on a slow erosion, is it faster than those cliffs in Norfolk?
Interesting I get the impression the Cathcart voters knew the boundaries and disregarded the Glasgow South result in May, once again the electorate is more canny than many give them credit for, now we are back to tactical voting. Everything comes round
Con vote okay in Cathcart, but almost a lost deposit in Livingston,
SNP are probably well satisfied, Labour will spin the gloss but the signs of a steady erosion must be worrying them.
112 - We don’t really talk politics! I find it really weird that anyone would vote Sinn Fein. Especially so because he’s an intelligent, mild-mannered person who spends all day saving lives - about as far removed from an Adams or McGuinness as you can get. He’s from Newry and all his family vote the same way. I think he’s probably tribally Sinn Fein rather than ideologically.
[116] “if you accept a compromise over a policy, it means that tha policy wasn’t so important for you at the end.”
It means that we have to set priorities in our negotiations, which we did do (as did Labour). Nevertheless we are still working of acheive more what we think is the right thing. I don’t think that this is so unusual- by-elections take place in most systems, and nobody complains that coalition partners fight each other- Don’t they do this in Italy too?
[119] Amazing- mind you NI politics never cease to amaze me- even politics in Croatia seems a whole load more normal… Does he not notice the shall we say “fringe” issues associated with Tynecastle’s finest?
120. Coalitions partners don’t usually fight each other in by-elections here, but it should be remembered that the coalitions are more “structural” here. We have by-elections only for the national parliament (local councils are elected with PR).
120. and then (to close this issue) my “problem” is not that they fought against each other, but that they used a policy they’ve already compromised to campaign about.
119.I suppose one way of making sure you have a regular flow of patients would indeed be to support Sinn Fein
121 - He’s not a big football fan - more into his Gaelic games! Their is still a problem at Tynecastle but it tends to be more prevalent amongst the away support (you still here some of the old favourites like ‘I was born under the Union Jack, Could you go a chicken supper Bobby Sands, Derry’s walls etc). Still its always funny hearing Celtic fans say that we’re the biggots when you have thousands of them singing about ‘how there’ll be no Protestants anymore’ and justifying it by claiming to be part of ‘the struggle’ because their 20th generation Irish and sink the occasional pint of Guinness.
124 - Don’t think they’re too active in Falkirk though!
[125] I hear you.. mind you, in Aberdeen the songs from the away stands tend be more concerned about the attractiveness of our local sheep..
88. “On the other hand the LibDems must be gutted not to have done better. The SNP shot their tactical-voting Fox. If Livingstone was in England and there was no SNP, it surly would have been a LD gain.”
That is about as insightful as saying if Cheadle had been in Scotland, and there had been an SNP, then the Tories probably would have won it.
Livingston isn’t in England, and there is an SNP, so therefore we are not gutted. You’re displaying a very anglo-centric analysis Tone. In fact, in terms of share of the vote in a by-election it was the LD’s best result in Scotland since Nicol Stephens won Kincardine and Deeside in November 1991!
As for Cathcart, we increased our share of the vote despite being in government; it is, in fact, our second best result of the 5 by-elections to have taken place since 1999. We might have hoped to have done a bit better, with a bigger increase in share of the vote, but it is hardly calamatous.
” I suppose one way of making sure you have a regular flow of patients would indeed be to support Sinn Fein “.
Perhaps he’s a specialist in ankles and knees.
[127] Nicol Stephen, not Stephens
114. Sorry for being pedantic Innocent, but you can say either “in the Dail” or “in Dail Eireann”, but not “the Dail Eireann” (’cos it’s a genitive. I think.)
127.”In fact, in terms of share of the vote in a by-election it was the LD’s best result in Scotland since Nicol Stephens won Kincardine and Deeside in November 1991!”
With all the due respect for you, I think it’s pretty pointless to compare the share of votes in different seats regardless the “point of start”
125. I’ve heard a fair few Celtic songs sung in my time Max (mainly by my brother), but I don’t ever recall hearing one about there being no more Protestants any more…
131. I don’t think that it’s pointless at all when talking about by-elections, when normal voting patterns often go completely out the window.
133. So if next month there will be a by election in Na h-Eileanan an Iar and the Libdems will increase their % of votes from 7.9% to 8.9%, will you claim it’s a bad performance compared to the one achieved yesterday in Livingston?
132 - Its an add on to the Soldiers Song.
[130] the genitive is “Eireann” -of Ireland- so either is OK. But the Dail is only the lower house of the Oireachtas- the Parliament- the other is the Seanad.
Mscellaneous analysis: Derwentside: allowing for the arrival of the BNP and disappearance of Tories, effectively no change on halved turnout. Bournemouth Kinson North had both Labour and Tories up in % share, LibDems well down. Haven’t had the detailed figures from Rother District Council, but the Labour candidate’s wife (who works for me) says he and the (second-placed) LibDems were both up a bit, the Tories down a bit but held the seat.
No clear picture if you take all the results together. I think the electorate is pretty detached at the moment, voting for local issues or not at all, and telling polls they’d vote much as last time in a GE. Hard to blame them as so little inter-party debate is going on. In a negative sort of way this is good for the Tories, as they’re not actually losing out by not having a long-term leader - a bit like they used to say of Italy during the era of multiple government changes, life goes on regardless of whether there’s someone in charge. I think the LibDems probably have most to worry about at the moment - there is a distinct air of drift, whereas the Tories can at least hope that a new leader will give them a lift.
134. No, because it has to be looked at in the context of longer term trends, not just specific results. In Scotland, for the past 15 years where the Lib Dems have upped their percentage in the GE, it has normally dropped back in the by-election, or the by-election vote was up, but on the back of a bad GE result. This was a reasonable by-election result on the back of a good advance at the general election: i.e they held most of their gains.
Therefore, to use your example, given that the LD share of the vote only increased sna hEileanan Siar by 1.4%, in terms of the general trend you could argue that a further increase of only 1% is not as good as 0.6% down on the back of a 5.5% increase. Remember, this is a part of the world where Lib Dem lost deposits were commonplace a few years ago.
So, to conclude: the trend is ever upwards!
94/118: Quite a significant difference between the Glasgow South (Westminster) and Glasgow Cathcart (Holyrood) boundaries, actually: the extra Glasgow South bits are mostly more middle-class than average for Cathcart, and as a result probably more likely than average to vote Lib Dem (e.g. Maxwell Park ward, currently Tory-held, but almost certainly an area where the Lib Dems polled well in May).
Also, it’s hard to say exactly what the ‘natural’ level of SNP support is in Scottish seats these days. The SNP poll well below this level in Westminster elections, but probably a little above it in Holyrood elections (where, in addition to the hard-core nationalist vote, they’d currently pick up some of the anti-government vote, particularly that which in other circumstances might go Lib Dem).
138. I partly agree with you, but we’re judging this particular result, not the last century trend!
Then I posted in advance (a couple of days ago) which results I would consider good or bad for each party. Libdems results fall in the “average” (not good, not bad) category.
Obviously the SNP would have liked to have won either of the by-elections but they will be reasonably satisfied by the result. At the start of the campaign Lib dems were claiming on this site they could challnege Labour the SNP was in decline etc …lets be clear the Lib dem vote share fell in Livingston after supporters claimed here they would do well….therefore it is a poor result for them ….other posters claimed the SNP were in the doldrums….despite the fact they gained seats at the GE and most parties would willingly swap vote share for seats (like the LIb dems have done in the past)….the decline of the SSP will help make the 2007 election more interesting…
136. Sorry James, but you can’t put a definite article in front of a genitive. You can’t say ’sa Dail Eireann’, you say ‘i nDail Eireann’. Nouns governed by nouns in the genitive case are definite, thus you say ‘teach Phadraig’ [Patrick’s house/the house of Patrick] not ‘an teach Phadraig’.
Therefore it is incorrect to say ‘an Dail Eireann’ or ‘the Dail Eireann’.
Both by-elections it seems were disasters for UKIP, after the shock by-election result in Hartlepool it appears that the parties support has collapsed.
143 - I don’t think UKIP ever had any support in Scotland.
144. Now, now alex, they increased their vote share by 0.3% at the election, to the dizzying heights of 0.4%.
145.I’m sure they’re able to find something good in that result. Parties are always able to see brilliant results everywhere
141 - Actually Mark, I think at the outset the Lib Dem contributors on this site felt that the Nationalists would have a better prospects in Livingston and that the Lib Dems might hope to do better in Cathcart on the back of the Glasgow South GE result albeit on different boundaries. A few people thought there might be a battle for second place in Livingston between the SNP and the Lib Dems but I don’t recall anyone predicting they would beat the Nats.
I’d say Labour have to be most pleased with the results, particularly Cathcart which should have been highly vulnerable to the SNP. Livingston was okay for the Nats but I can’t believe they aren’t hugely disappointed by their performance in Cathcart, particularly given the circumstances of the by-election.
Finally, I guess it always helps if you claim a gain in seats and/or votes. The problem is when you lose both as certain parties did at the last GE.
[142] Mo tapg! Tapadh leat
148. Mo tapg? Tapadh leat?
Google tells me that ‘tapadh leat’ is Scots Gaelic for thanks, but I have no clue about the other!
Dean
Your final point was well made…and quite right! Labour did do badly at the Ge losing both seats and vote share:) (oh did you mean us instead?:))
I did see posters on here claiming that the Lib dems would come second or rather that the interesting thing would be if the LDs could come second etc though you have more sense than to post such non-sense….Charles kennedy certainly claimed publicly that the Lib dems were the challengers to Labour in Livingston….and the Lib dem vote share fell….
The SNP…like Plaid are looking at their campaigning techniques key messages etc in preperation for 2007 but will be pleased to have made some progress the Glasgow campaign was very short making it harder to get a decent campaign up and running which affected all the opposition parties……..I would love to claim that the by-elections have halted the Lib dem bandwagon in Scotland but that would be no more accurate than some of the more optimistic noises coming out of the Lib dems….
150 - Of course it is the job of a party leader to claim they can/will win an election . I don’t recall MH going round at the last election saying he was going to lose .
I must confess that prior to the campaign I was quite bullish of the chances of the Lib Dems in Cathcart though I had no local knowledge to back that up . The calling of the election so quickly clearly scuppered any chance of a good campaign . The Livingston result was ok . Both Andrea and myself tried a few days to give our opinions on what results would be considered good or bad for each party and on that basis will agree with Andrea that the Lib Dem performance was middling .
150 - You’re right Mark. Idiot though I may be, I don’t make predictions for seats about which I know absolutely nothing.
Anyway some good news for the SNP who won an Independent seat on Fife Council yesterday.
P.S. And by the way of course I mean’t Labour!
[114] [142] I daresay you can’t in Gaelic, but I thought I was writing in English. I will not be outpedanted!
153. Innocent, certainly, but even in the English language (as spoken in Ireland at least - and they should know best!) one never says ‘the Dail Eireann’ in the same way that it would be incorrect to speak of ‘the l’Assemble Nationale’ or ‘the der Bundestag’.
154 - you often see “the hoi polloi”, though
144. UKIP only really perform at Euro-elections. They actually out-polled the SSP in Scotland in 2004.
zhsybavyy…
bnexeoiym szytnytpxq lfegsydhka ebsinnxmpu …
auaorwz…
ztzlatslrm nsgmamijpk wpkrdcuvck abtlyjlg …