Milburn “ready to stand against Brown”
October 2nd, 2005-
Cherie Blair and Mandelson said to be encouraging him to stand
The former Health Secretary, Alan Milburn, is reported by the Sunday Telegraph this morning to be ready to mount a challenge to Gordon Brown when Tony Blair eventually steps down as Labour leader.
According to the paper’s political editor, Patrick Hennessy, a Milburn aide is reported as saying that “When the time comes, Alan will be very well positioned to challenge Gordon..He does not expect to win - but he feels it important that Gordon should not have things all his own way.”
According to Hennessy, among the figures who have been encouraging Milburn to stand are Cherie Blair and the UK’s EU Commissioner, Peter Mandelson.
The best betting price you can get against Milburn is 20/1 which puts him fourth in the betting. The current second favourite behind Gordon Brown (0.29/1) is Charles Clarke at 12/1.
Because the timing of Blair’s going is so much up in the air we expect lots of different reports like this about senior Labour figures in the coming months and years.
Eve of Conference Tory leadership betting prices
Conventional bookmakers best price: Davis 1/2: Clarke 5/2: Cameron 10/1: Fox 10/1: Rifkind 40/1 Betfair betting exchange: Davis 0.6/1: Clark 3.5/1: Cameron 10.5/1: Fox 12/1: Rifkind 89/1 BinaryBet spread market. Davis 56-63: Clarke 23-29: Cameron 5-9 Fox 5-9: Rifkind 1-3
If you have not yet taken part in our Tory Leadership survey then please post your response by 6pm on Monday.
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O/T: Interesting to see Ken Clarke coming out in favour of ID cards in today’s Observer (he lays down smoke by saying he’s “vehemently” against making it a crime not to carry them, but nobody’s suggesting that). Very different from DD, who writhed visibly when ordered by Howard to support them and was clearly much happier after the policy changed.
BTW, Mike, what do you want us to do with things like this that will probably interest readers but are not on topic? Hunt back for an earlier thread to fit it in, even though most people will miss it? Or just use the latest thread, maybe trying to be brief?
As with Clark or Reid… the man wouldn’t stand a “snow ball’s chance in hell of winning a Labour leadership race”.
However the idea that Brown might not have the contest all his own way does start to seem more likely these days, especially after Conference, of course this could just be me, yet the idea that that challenge will come from a Blairite is rather far fetched.
If a challenge comes, it will originate from the “soft left” either Alan Johnson or Hillary Benn or perhaps Peter Hain… not, and I will stress this again, someone with zero support within the party such as Clark or Reid and not someone with a very weak base of support such as Milburn, its also important to note that as well as a weak bases amongst the PLP Milburn would get not support from the unions and precious little from the membership at large.
Brown is still the heavy favourite, and is still very popular, but I seem to detect a yet to be expressed, weariness of the “Blair-Brown era” and a despite for a genuinely fresh start with a new candidate, such a candidate won’t come from the Blairite elements within the party, rather it will come from the soft left… we’ll have to wait and see.
But I’d warn anyone a punt on Milburn, Clark or Reid? You might as well throw the money down the drain. I’m merely being solicitous for your wallets’ welfare Mike
When I read te Telegraph’s piece, I immediately thought that this Milburn’s new mission will end up with him saying again he would like to return to his familiy. Even Blairites quoted in the article (if they exist and the article is true and not made up becuase the torygraph needed to fill a pgae) admit that it’s a “kamikaze mission”.
Btw, am I the only one who found Cherie Blair’s “performance” during her husband’s speech appalling?
Mandelson needs to accept that his career is over. If Brown becomes PM, I doubt he’ll confirm Mandy as EU Commissioner and if the tories win, they’ll obviously chose a tory. He could only hope that Blair will serve a 5 year term.
Hoon said today he would like to see a coronation for Brown:
http://www.epolitix.com/EN/News/200510/dbf527e0-3bfa-4fd0-8aac-fe6aa8e90ded.htm
1 - that is interesting. Hadn’t Clarke previously spoken against ID cards in the Commons, on the grounds that (paraphrasing) “as a former Home Secretary I know the police shouldn’t always get what they ask for?”
5.BV, do you mean this passage: However, the idea that the public often have—that if the security services and the police demand something, it is unpatriotic for the House of Commons to refuse it—would be dangerous for us to accept.
?
If so, he said it during the debate about Prevention of Terrorism Bill and not ID cards.
6 - ah, thanks: my memory was wrong then. It’s a good slogan against ID cards too, though! Perhaps DD should use it against him.
7. The Libdems could borrow it for the next ID cards debate.
Agree with Ben at 2. Milburn will be hindered particularly by memories of his less than glorious tenure as Chairman of Labour’s election committee. For all his (other) shortcomings, I’m sure the majority would be larger if Brown hadn’t been removed from said post last Autumn.
9-”For all his (other) shortcomings, I’m sure the majority would be larger if Brown hadn’t been removed from said post last Autumn. ”
Why? I think I’m missing something here, could you explain me this? Why would his shortcomins be larger if GB haden’t been removed from the Chairman of Labour’s election committee?
[10] I think Richard means Labour’s parliamentary majority, not the size or number of Brownian shortcomings…
11. Ah, yes, thanks. I’ve misunderstood Richard’s comment. I was thinking about the majority of Milburn’s shortcomings and not Labour’s majority after the election.
Please God, him or Ian McCartney !
Milburn is clearly impossible. How many women would vote for him? I’ve a feeling that Brown will be challenged by a Blairite, but not one I, at least, can name at the moment. I suspect that there are a few from the 1997 intake whom Blair is grooming, and he will have promoted at least one to heavy cabinet seat in the year before he steps down. I don’t think Blair wants to be succeeded by Brown. Therefore (and this is going even further out on a limb), the Hoon story may be party of a Blairite ploy to convince Brown that he is guaranteed the succession. If GB fights now, he can still win; if he leaves it, I think he hasn’t got a chance. Part of NuLab’s appeal has been its image — all shiny! new! fresh! change! exciting! The ascendence of Gordon Brown will not appeal to Mondeo Man in the South East.
Nick at #1 on “things like this that will probably interest readers but are not on topic”. I suggest starting your own blog. Then you can set the topics you like.
5 - Clarke was in favour of ID cards when there wasn’t even the technology to support them
Re. 13, Ian McCartney, for all his good points, is currently miscast even as Party Chairman. He’s a very good point man with the party in the country, but as the face of the Labour Party is hindered by an accent which I can understand (I can understand Rab C Nesbitt without the subtitles), but of which very few other English people (or even East Coast Scots) can make any sense.
To say this is not snobbery, when I’m a great fan of Glaswegian accents (whether Govan or Kelvinside).
O/T - Jack’s just been on BBC1 - Monarch of the Glen - question is, is he the Tom Baker character or the Julian Fellowes (He of the “Quiet Man” speech-writing talent) one?
16 - Don’t you think Jack is more of a Richard Briers (Hector MacDonald) sort?
No - he’s far too raffish to be Briers.
16-”just been on BBC1 ”
Just out of curiosity, how many BBC do you have? 2 or 3?
19 - 4 (not including news24 and parliament)
20 - BBC3 and BBC4 only start at 7pm, though.
20. Are they all “normal” channels (I don’t know how to call them) or are some of them on cable TV?
Andrea - BBC1 and 2 are terrestrial analogue free to air via an aerial; BBC3 and 4 are digital and require a set-top digital decoder or digital TV. And usually another aerial.
23. Thanks, Tabman. It’s what I wanted to know.
24 - They’re generally rubbish if that helps. Well BBC3 anyway
23 - the digital decoder is pretty cheap now, isn’t it? But as far as I know there are some areas of the country where you can’t get digital TV, whereas all but the most remote places can get BBC1 and 2.
If you have cable, can you get BBC3 and 4 without an aerial and digibox?
25- I suppose BBC couldn’t be worse than Italian State TV. BBC is usually praised here in terms of quality: it’s a sort of myth.
27 - It seems to be the better programs that are exported, though. Finnish TV is great, for example - lots of classic British shows without the rubbish.
27 Andrea. I fu££y support the dear old Beeb £
£
26 book value. Yes.
I would imagine that BBC3 is better than almost every continental television station
We’re a bit spoilt. A bit like a Londoner complaining to someone in the North about public transport
29 - I thought it was the other way around and the Beeb supported you?
28- Your Tv series seem well done. I caught some of them on cable TV.
29. Jack. ??
30- We sometimes copy from you some shows. We’ve our version of “Ready steady cook”.
30 alex. There was an excellent programme on BBC 3 last night on Clem Attlee that I taped.
31 book value. We support each other - like a crutch
….. I’ve nothing against taking gelt from ITV or Channel 4 or 5 , Sky is pretty mean though 
Spend, spend, spend …
…it must be a wonderful life.
34 - was that part of the “Lost Decade 1945-1955″ series that I heard about on Radio 4?
It sounded quite interesting, but whenever I think of getting a TV I reflect that the licence fee would just be keeping you in whisky, Jack
35 Tabman. Yes but you Lib Dems like to tax tax tax first
36 book value. I’m struggling in my garret !!
33 - Andrea - Whilst we are off topic do you know how the Dresden count is going?
37. You don’t know how many trash shows you could get. The ones about top models that Max likes so much could interest you.
37 - I sometimes wish I had BBC4, which seems to be a television version of its radio numbersake. The Lost Decade series looked excellent
39. CDU won it. So the final results show CDU with a 4 seats lead over SPD.
38 - Jack W - no the Lib Dems like everyone to pay for their pleasures such as the BBC!!
37 book value. Yes. A very good series.
Really book value you should invest in an idiot box, you simply couldn’t cope with me sober
39. If you’re interested, we discussed the Dresden result in the “Why don’t punters believe Mr. Blair?” thread.
42 - Andrea - Thanks
Jack - your favourite Tory leader-to-be is no stranger to Big Government. Besides, everyone taxes; look at Maggie and VAT …
41 - I wonder if they will repeat the Timewatch episode, called I think “The Forgotten Tragedy” or something similar, about the North Sea storm and floods of 31 January - 1 February 1953, which took over 2000 lives at sea and on land in the UK and the Netherlands. Part of the thesis of the programme was that it had been largely forgotten because it conflicted with the narrative of the period as a time of national recovery.
It is a very well-made and affecting documentary.
45 - First time on today so a lot of catching up to do !
41 Tabman. Invest in a freeview box, I think you can get one for less than £50.
43 Vino. Except OAPs such as the Dowager Lady Jack W who is exempt from the BBC poll tax . She finds this NuLab largesse wonderful !
BV - I remember reading about it in 2003 (50th Anniversary I guess). Timewatch - another excellent series.
Vino - how are commercial channels funded? From advertising revenue. And who pays for that ultimately? The consumer. So I’m subsidising your “Celebrity wife-swap eastenders big brother” to a greater tune than vice versa!
51 - it was actually called “The Greatest Storm”. There’s a review of it some way down this page:
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3724/is_200311/ai_n9330863
Jack, I keep meaning too, but when you’ve got “Free to air” pb.com, I can’t justify the expense!
BTW - I discovered this evening why Guido has a Margaux fund …
51 - Tabman - to be honest I didn’t understand the logic of your argument - as someone who don’t watch (or listen to )the BBC why should I be forced to purchase a licence that goes to them.
53 Tabman. You’re a mean scrot ! …. you could always tax bar chart leaflets and then spend spend spend !
53. Tabman, you should convince Jack to finance a pb.com TV.
56 Andrea. I have a feeling you’d turn PB.Com TV into Eurotrash - all naked MPs and swinging items and political farting contests ! ….I suppose you’d host the show
57. Only during the night hours. I’ll leave you the daytime for serious politcal debates
3-Andrea’BTW,Am I the only one that found Nrs Blair’s performance during her husbands speach appalling’
I don’t think it was just confined to the speech or just the run up to the speach ,badly dessed as usual (althought she was voted the worst dressed woman in the UK last year) seemd she doent take any notice of this particular poll.
I thought the really tacky thing was wearing a ‘i love TB’ badge on her lapel,she is obviously ignorant that TB (full name tuberculosis) the is not only a very serious disease but one that still results in fatalities.
However we have got used to her attire and antics and it usually raises a good laugh at home.
Although as you may or may not know her apppalling behaviour is not just combined to party confrence,she has in particular been busy this year to fill her own pockets by expoliting her husbands position raising money for her self by combining visits with him to the USA recetly and taking large sum for speaking at charity engagements in Australia.Her next plan was to take even greater funds from by opening shopping malls in the far east,following public outcry this was stopped.
60 - “I thought the really tacky thing was wearing a ‘i love TB’ badge on her lapel,she is obviously ignorant that TB (full name tuberculosis) the is not only a very serious disease but one that still results in fatalities.”
I’m hardly a fan of the Blairs, but you have to be trying pretty hard to manufacture outrage if you think that is somehow an insult to tuberculosis sufferers.
The accounts of survivors from that flood, BV, are pretty chilling.
62 - yes. Not something you forget having heard.
john @ 61 - You are Prinz and I claim my £5!
61 - i don’t know - it think the first thing many people would think (if only for a nanosecond) seeing the badge is “why tuberculosis?” before readjusting their brain to work out what TB actually stood for. Something that should have been avoided IMO.
55 Vino, as someone who doesn’t watch Satellite TV or listen to commercial radio, why should I be forced to pay higher prices for goods and services because the companies making/offering them spend millions of pounds advertising in these media?
[66] For the same reason you (and I) have to pay higher prices for goods advertised in newspapers we don’t happen to buy ourselves…
66 Tabman. Because unlike some loony fundamentalists you want to live in the real world and not some bar chart utopia ?
66 - good point. Without satellite TV, how will you know which companies advertise on it so you can refuse to buy from them?
That’s a really tough survey you’ve asked there Mike. I will happily fess up to being a total political junkie but to predict the typical Tory’s views on the policies of Liam Fox, say, is really tough!
It’s a very strange piece of position from Milburn to say he’s planning to stand but doesn’t expect to win. Could this Milburn aid have got a rap on the knuckles after that comment?
The eventual victors in a Tory leadership races are generally;
1. On the Right of the Party (or get elected on right wing votes)
2. The youngest in the field
3. Have the prettiest wife/girlfriend
4. Are not the favourite
On this basis, I’d say Liam Fox will win and considering I backed him at 25s, I’ll be very happy indeed!
climate france february…
Your post is on target. Keep it up….