The Betting Markets give Day One to Cameron
October 4th, 2005-
Could we be heading for a Davis-Cameron final?
The first day “winner” of the Tory Party conference according to the way the betting has moved is indisputably the Shadow Education Secretary, David Cameron. While all the other contenders have seen their prices ease or stay the same only Cameron has seen a sharp tightening.
Although Ken Clarke is still second in the betting behind David Davis the former Chancellor’s price has eased while Cameron’s has seen a very sharp movement and a lot of activity. It seems that punters are getting out of Clarke and even Davis positions and putting it onto Cameron.
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A good indicator of trends is the Betfair betting exchange where the Cameron price has shifted from 9.5/1 to 5.2/1 in the course of 24 hours. The “close of play” BinaryBet spread market fix saw Davis and Clarke moved down with Cameron moving upwards.
Betfair’s price on Davis has eased from 0.54/1 to 0.62/1 while on Clarke it has gone from 3.6/1 to 4.2/1. Thus a £100 winning Davis bet would have given you a £54 profit - today you would get £62. With Clarke the winning bet profit moved from £360 to £420. These prices move rapidly throughout the day and night and reflect what individual punters want to back and lay without the intervention of a bookmaker to set the odds.
The conventional bookies are usually slower to pick up trends because their automated systems prevent big bets being taken. So although you can still see a 9/1 Cameron price being quoted it is very hard to put money on at that level.
There’s little doubt that the BAT story in the Guardian on Ken Clarke has been a sharp reminder of the challenges the veteran Tory could face if he did become leader. He takes the stand today at the conference along with Cameron and it will be interesting to see if the first day’s betting trends continue.
Tory leadership betting prices
Conventional bookmakers best price: Davis 1/2: Clarke 11/4: Cameron 10/1: Fox 10/1: Rifkind 50/1 Betfair betting exchange: Davis 0.62/1: Clark 4.2/1: Cameron 5.2/1: Fox 10.5/1: Rifkind 65/1 BinaryBet spread market. Davis 59-66: Clarke 18-24: Cameron 8-12 Fox 5-9: Rifkind 1-3
Sorry about technical problems. Unprecedented demand on the site caused further server trouble last night and we were down for several hours.
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A suggestion if I may, Mike:
As it is reasonable to assume that demand on the site is going to be quite high through the Conservative Conference, might it not be wise to disable the latest comments function and a few of the other non-essentials as was done in the run up to the General Election to prevent the site going down again at time during which it would be at it’s most interesting and useful to have it up? Unfortunately, these problems also occurred last week during the Labour conference and on the day the Tory leadership rule vote was announced.
1. Seconded!
Totally agree, I thought the item carried on Newsnight was fascinating and although marginally ‘led’(towards DC) was very instructive.
I still can’t back him to win, but have squared up my short position on him at a loss.
Very pleased to see at how KC fared on the same piece. It ought to
make a few of his supporters sit up and reach for Lord Ashcroft’s
mug of coffee !
DD didn’t ‘fly’, but we’ve always known this (communications) wasn’t his strongest attribute anyway.
To see the graphs on KC !! ……………
IA 1. A very good point. My problem at the moment is that it is my son Robert who keeps the site going and he left for Mexico on the day last week’s ballot was announced and is not due back until the weekend. I have made this suggestion to him and if he can find an internet cafe to do this work then I know that he will.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed for today.
Just looked at the markets and the David Davis price has weakened sharply on Betfair. The last price matched was 1.70.
5 Agreed Mike, there are some interesting price movements taking place.
Whilst I would mention to all concerned to remember that the electorate (Con members) are an obdurate lot and not easily shiftable (nor influencable by the odd speech or TV article)as other markets would be by the award of a penalty or a wicket falling, there has definitely been a shake up.
Interesting to see both KC & DD suffering at DC (& LF’s ?) hands.
Being political for a moment, I thought it was interesting how those attempting to lecture the membership yesterday seemed to fall on stony ground……
I’m not a betting man but quote above in the roundup of the conventional bookies offering 0/1 on Cameron sounds like an ‘interesting’ bet - some mishtake surely!
Or am I showing my ignorance of betting and am about to be laughed at…treat me gently if so…
What price a Clarke-Cameron final, if Doc Fox eats into DD’s support at the same time as Cameron bites into both the modernising vote, and the right wing anti ken vote. Could DD be spectacularly double crossed?
7. A typo which has been corrected.
8 - Anon, could I take this opportunity to say you have written some of my favourite pieces of verse ever. Imagine seeing you on pb.com too.
4 - Mike, I could probably have a go at that if you’d like?
[1] wasn’t me - although I happen to agree with it 100% - have I started sleepwalking?
[6] TB wrote those attempting to lecture the membership yesterday seemed to fall on stony ground - now who was it who said that the Party must dissolve the People and elect another, and what became of the Party of which it was said?
What I thought odd about the Newsnight panel was how biased they were towards David Cameron and Liam Fox before any of the exercises had even begun. IIRC DD scored only 8 and KC just one at the outset. Thoese figures are so way out of line with all other opinion surveys. So that the final outcome merely reinforced previous strong allegiances was surely therefore hardly surprising.
Whatever. DC IS impressive: the ‘mo’ may be with him, and that’s no probs at all (for me at least) should he prevail.
IA - haven’t cheated by by google-thinging, but wasn’t that a quote from of Brecht’s plays? And didn’t he end his days as a slavish devotee of East Germany’s Communist Party? Nul points in the pub quiz I suspect?
The Newsnight piece was a clever piece of manipulation - it’s clear that Cameron is now the BBC candidate! What interested me was how they had selected the clips they played to the audience to really push this agenda; Cameron and Fox talking confidently in lofty tones, Clarke boasting pompously. Having said that, I think the results may still have some value. I certainly believe Clarke is very much less impressive than he seems to think - most of my acquaintances see him as a tired old has-been. He has no ideas at all about policy - his whole approach seems based on ‘vote for me as I am well known’. He is going to crash and burn just like in 1997 and 2001. Short him now.
13 JO - Nor me (despite the fact he could do with toning down his ‘pluminess’- I don’t mean that nastily, he’s immaculatly well spoken, but in some quarters that will be used against him - interestingly as the newsnight panel also demonstrated)
I Would prefer DD but ABC still does it for me !
Does Cameron’s complete lack of experience scare people slightly. From what he has said on the economy it sounds like he has less idea of economic policy than Blair and that’s saying something. The difference is that Blair can get away with it because he has the colossus that is Brown at the Treasury. The exchanges between Brown and Osborne thus far (not exactly seen as having been a resounding success for the Blue side) could be a forerunner to any Brown/Cameron duel. Cameron undoubtedly has all the media skills, but his musings on the flat tax and the like smack of extreme political immaturity. I’ve always felt one of the big problems with Blair has been that his inexperience of government has left him with no real idea of what policies can be implemented and will work and what won’t. This has left him extremely vulnerable to any argument put to him in terms of its attractiveness politically - every idea is new to him and if it sounds good then he’ll try to do it.
Don’t know if there is anything in this but Michael Fabricant has disappeared from Davis’ website list of his supporters.
When it was announced he had 66 total declared on Sunday his website list of supporters had the full list of 65 (ie excluding Davis himself).
Some time yesterday, Fabricant was removed - the website now just lists 64.
This may seem a bit trivial but if there is anything in it could it be embarrassing if someone who publically declared later changed their mind?
18 - So Michael Fabricant is preparing a leadership bid after all!
OT. Outstanding comedian Ronnie Barker has died. Very very sad news. I was aware he’d been ill for some time, but it’s still a shock. Laughter and humour are so important in our lives. But we’ll have very many happy hours of him in the archives for decades to come !
20 - That is sad. We were talking about Porridge on here not so long ago - one of the exceptional comedies of its era which is still very funny today.
Mike L,
Re Fabricant that is interesting because he is unlikely to have fallen off the list and the last thing Davis needs today is a sense that he is losing support. Maybe he discovered Davis WASN’T wearing a wig afterall.
Now Michael Fabircant has got what I call a “real” head of hair. You would think he would want to stay with David Davis - they share the same interest in their thatch.
21 - I read the sad news about Ronnie Barker and it is very sad news indeed - I loved Porridge. You and Tabman were at the back of my mind when I head the news.
22. It’s definitely not just a computer problem.
Each person is listed neatly with their picture in 2 columns. All the people in the left hand column which contained Fabricant have been moved up one place.
25 - agreed and, having nerdishly checked the HTML behind the page, it seems that he is not lurking in a netherregion of mangled code either.
Fabricant is not someone who has ever been accused of being shy of publicity and my guess is that he has switched camps and will make an announcement after the Cameron or Clarke speeches. The question is which bandwagon will he try to get on?
24 - Sad news indeed.
If Jack W needs cheering up, he should take a look at today’s Steve Bell in the Guardian. I tried to find an on-line link but there isn’t one.
Quote from Tory Boy at 5 -”Whilst I would mention to all concerned to remember that the electorate (Con members) are an obdurate lot and not easily shiftable (nor influencable by the odd speech or TV article)”.
Really? I get the impression that todays Tory Party would grab hold of anyone who made a half decent speech this week. Look at the Cameron band wagon - understandably noone has clue what to do - Whoever leads the party needs to win over the electorate as a whole but inorder to become leader you have to appeal to the current Conservative party.
There is a sort of catch 22 here, in that anyone that appears attractive to the Tory party seems to be disliked by the non Tory part of the electorate.
6.”Being political for a moment, I thought it was interesting how those attempting to lecture the membership yesterday seemed to fall on stony ground…… ”
And Labour is probably happy about it.
According to the Guardian, young delegates rose to cheer Maude/Duncan/May speeches, while the oldest ones stayed on their seats.
Btw, am I the only one who don’t like the order to leadership candidates not to share the same platform during the conference? A good bedate between 2 contenders could have been useful.
A contact of mine at the Gruntfuttock knows someone who once cleaned the offices used by Alstair Campbell. He found information relating to the planned campaign to be used by Labour were Cameron to win the Tory leadership. It is to feature a large billboard poster captioned:
David Cameron understands how you live your life
31. JAck, does the signature mean that Bromley accpeted you and Tab and now you officially are Mr Tabman?
Andrea 30. At least the Tory Party does have leadership contests and is prepared to oust failing leaders. Contrast that with a couple of weeks ago when we saw the sad spectacle of Charles Kennedy having to go from one platform to another to bumble on to everyone that he was still in charge. In a decent robust party he would have been toppled years ago.
Labour’s the same. They all moan and moan about the great Tone yet nobody does anything about it. What would TB have to do to get booted out? The fact is that he can get away with almost anything.
30 - “According to the Guardian, young delegates rose to cheer Maude/Duncan/May speeches, while the oldest ones stayed on their seats.”
You missed out the punchline to the joke, Andrea.
32 - I must ‘fess up; ’twas I doing an “in the style of” posting …
30 Andrea :
“And Labour is probably happy about it.
According to the Guardian, young delegates rose to cheer Maude/Duncan/May speeches, while the oldest ones stayed on theirseats”
Having watched it, I would suggest the report is slightly fanciful.
It doesn’t though particularly matter whether I am right or wrong.
The average age of our party members,is ,as every one knows and takes great joy in repeating at every given opportunity, 3,216 year old.
It is to that end of the age spectrum that the vast majority of the
(internal conservative )electorate are therefore to be found.
It is them who will decide the outcome of the leadership contest.
Young whipersnappers p*****g in their pools by challenging everything that they believe in are definitely not appreciated.
33 - It is very strange that the criticism of CK comes mainly from Conservatives such as yourself . The vast majority of Lib Dems are happy with his leadership and performance although there are always exceptions usually caused by personal reasons .
The strident calls for him to go from people like yourself just show that Conservatives still fear his appeal to the electorate as a whole .
6 - At last Toryboy , we agree on something . Yes the Conservative membership is obdurate and stony ground for those talking change and long may it remain so while they wonder why they lose another 3 GE’s
John O [14]: by no means nul points - it was Brecht, though not in a play, and it was about the East German Communist Party of which he was a rather disgruntled member - and Ulbricht had more sense than to kick him out! It seems to me to apply to all Parties, irrespective of ideology, as a corrective to “loyalism”. Peter Mandelson (and yes, I will go and wash my mouth out directly for mentioning him in the same post as Brecht) has argued that a mass membership is part of the problem, and in the unlikely event that any Party ex-leader lurks on this site, I defy them to say that they never had a dark moment when they agreed with him!
38 - “Peter Mandelson (and yes, I will go and wash my mouth out directly for mentioning him in the same post as Brecht) has argued that a mass membership is part of the problem”
In that case, Peter Mandelson must be part of the solution.
Mark 37. I must disagree.I have not found many Lib Dems who are happy with CK’s leadership and performance. The idea that he might go on until after the next election fills many of those I know with a deep despair. He is a bumbling failure and an embarassment. The sooner he goes the better.
28 - re Steve Bell, found it!
41 - the link doesn’t work for me I’m afraid.
“Does Cameron’s complete lack of experience scare people slightly.”
It does me. I think a lot of people underestimate how many of the most insidious flaws of this government - the reliance of spin, the lack of respect for the traditional boundaries of the constiution, the lack of compliance with normal policy-making procedures - come from the fact that this government, when it took office, was one of the most inexperienced governments in history, and Blair and most other senior Cabinet members were reared in the ways of leadership under Kinnock, who had no experience of government either. Lack of connection with the “traditonal” ways of doing things tends to be an electoral plus, because voters like people who don’t sound like “normal” politicians, and Cameron could profit from that, either as leader or as a senior frontbencher, but it’s a poor lookout for government. Having said that, Cameron and most other Tories are still much more experienced than Labour was in the mid-90s.
42 -
Jack’s gone quiet.
And in the best traditions of that mighty organ, it’s a Bell cartoon credited to Martin Rowson…
[44] I fail to see how Cameron, who has only sat on the Opposition benches, can be “more experienced” than anyone else in the same position (i.e. almost all of Labour’s front bench in 1997). Still, you are surely right as to the cause of Labour’s control-freakery. I’m sure the mandarins will encourage it in any incoming government, too.
40 - Your opinion on CK has been clearly stated for many months , Mike and of course you are entitled to it , but in my opinion it is not shared and agreed with throughout Lib Dem membership as a whole as you would like to believe . If his performance was so bad Conservatives would be clammering to keep him as leader .
45 - no doubt funds are a bit low following all the pre-emptive drinking in support of “Our Ken”, so he’s trotted off to lunch with “Auntie” for another 10 shilling postal order
48 - Mark, it could be a double bluff - they ask for him to go, knowing we’ll keep him as a result
49 - Jack’s BBC lunches always remind me of the first episode of “I’m Alan Partridge”… “a bottle of Blue Nun, please”.
47 - “I fail to see how Cameron, who has only sat on the Opposition benches, can be “more experienced” than anyone else in the same position”
He has seen the ways of Whitehall as a special adviser to Lamont and Howard in the 1990s. Apart from two or three ministers, like Taylor and Beckett, who had been in Callaghan’s government, only Jack Straw had been a special adviser.
37 How can you assert that the Conservatives will lose the next 3 elections - has Jack lent you his crystal ball ?
The time will come when the electorate want a change and at that time they will want a clear choice from the hum drum, financially illiterate, politically correct pap being churned out by NuLab and your lot.
Should they choose more of the same, fair play, that’s democracy, should be entertaining to see how you get on, but it shouldn’t be under the (pale) blue banner of a craven, feeble and opportunistic Conservative Party who has given up on their beliefs and values.
Re: 40 & 48: Obviously, it’s Mike’s site and he’s entitled to his opinion. He may be right as a punter but his opinion of CK isn’t mine nor that of any LD member I speak to. I thought CK had a very good Conference but, as I’ve said before, the Conference immediately after an election is the time to float ideas. The LDs do have problems of course and much of their future isn’t in their hands but I don’t share Mike’s portrait of CK though some from other parties might.
As for the “Gang of Five”, I watched the Newsnight “focus group”. I suspect Cameron did well for the reasons Blair did well initially in the mid-90s. However, it remains to be seen how he would fare in the heat of battle. He had a poor August and September when from a position of being second to DD, he was eclipsed by Clarke. His performances during that time weren’t good and that must be a concern to MPs.
That said, in the face of evidence suggesting neither Davis nor Clarke would give the Conservatives a “bounce” in the polls, Cameron may be more attractive to the shrewder MPs.
53 - “it shouldn’t be under the (pale) blue banner of a craven, feeble and opportunistic Conservative Party who has given up on their beliefs and values.”
Tory Boy, I agree. Take a look at the “Stand Clear” article on our blog which argues for the same thing - Clear Blue Water to give the electorate a real choice.
Waiting to see what Cameron has to say. Anybody got an applause-meter handy?
Ditto - respect Mike’s opinion but having been at Blackpool the mood in the bars & at the fringe sessions was very much pro-Kennedy. Nasser Butt’s comments very much in the small minority (which Nasser admitted when I spoke with him after).
Quite aside from positive comments about CK’s style of leadership, fact remains that if you put Kennedy on the front of your Focus it wins you extra votes, whereas both of the other parties preferred to keep their leaders off their literature where possible!
Mark & Mike 40 & 48. I think that you have misunderstood the point I was trying to make which was that unlike Labour and the Lib Dems the Tories are a lot more ruthless when it comes to failing leaders. I was not being anti or pro Kennedy but simply illistrating my point by mentioning what happened in Blackpool.
I think that most Tory MPs are more than happy for CK to continue - he’s great company when he has had one or two to drink
A poster of an Eton boy 50 years ago with the caption ‘he knows what you feel like’ or somesuch would be an own-goal in the case of DC. Attacking a man’s background when he has a boy at home who’ll never walk…good taste? sensible? winning?
DC would never mention himself, obviously.
Quick postcard from Blackpool. Cameron supporters everywhere. Clarke supporters in fleeces bought by fag money. DD is giving out bags. Nothing from Fox or Rifkind. Met DD last night and can confirm to the doubters that he does not where a wig and even invited me to tug his hair to check. One or two anti Davis leaflets floating about. The hall is packed for Cameron so watching on TV. Should be innteresting
Re. 33, the answer is invade Iran (or take part in a US led invasion of said country).
57 - absolutely. Lots of people I met were interested in talking about policy, not many about the leadership. Perhaps 20% share the view of Mike and Nasser, 80% wish the media would stop stirring.
60, there’s some pretty good Toupe glue available these days, woody
55 - Tabman the problem is that not everyone in the party believes our values and priciples began and ended with Mrs Thatcher.
You know as well as I do that to adopt anything like what the Cornerstone Group are proposing would be a gift to the Lib Dems especially the Orange Bookers.
60 - “Met DD last night and can confirm to the doubters that he does not where a wig and even invited me to tug his hair to check.”
Did you have someone photograph this great moment for posterity?
Though it would certainly build his profile if he were seen on TV bounding into a crowd with the words: “Hi. I’m David Davis. Pull my hair!”
60. But has he had a hair transplant like Berlesconi - or Prince Charles?
64 - Max, we are constantly told that there is a small ‘c’ conservative majority in this country. Some of it currently votes Labour, much of it probably sits at home on behalf of the “None of the above” party. This constituency is never going to vote Liberal.
IMHO the Tories have got nothing to lose and everythign to gain from going for the full Thatcherite/Cornerstone monty; as Jack and others ostensibly non-partisan point out, why vote for a pale blue Tory party when you can vote NuLab and get the real thing?
I don’t know anyone who wants to get rid of Kennedy either in our local party and I’m the membership sec as well as the ex-candidate. I remain a staunch supporter despite having rather different views on a number of issues.
53 - toryboy , I can assert it in the same way that Maude , May , Duncan et al assert it . Ignore the call to modernise your policies and you will fail . As a Lib Dem supporter I hope you do .
May, Maude and Duncan want to pursue the sort of strategy that has brought such brilliant success for the Church of England over the past 50 years.
‘Pull my hair’ = Dog bites man
‘Pull my finger’, now, that would be news. And would match in vulgarity his DD t-shirt photo-call.
55 Tabman, I think that is a very well balanced, objective article.
Thank you for directing me to it.
Win or lose, I believe it is the platform we must fight on.
Regards
67 - A hell of a lot of people who don’t vote are very young. How many of them do you think are going to rally round Edward Leighs Flag? Their is a world of difference between being a small ‘c’ Conservative in Britain and the kind of religious right so prevalent in America that Cornerstone seems to want to import.
And as for having nothing to lose - how about 198 seats and the chance of ever governing the country again. the key is to shift Labour back to the Left not to further distance ourselves from the British people who are allready (polling evidence would suggest) somewhat to the left of us.
70 - May, Maude and Duncan - were they the house band on “Rainbow”?
69 Nothing objective to base your assertion on then ?
Cameron is scoring some home runs.
As for an earlier comment re. his accent, I think he sounds fairly neutral for an Old Etonian (less plummy than Prince William) but it would obviously do him no harm if he could swap accents with either Messrs Davis or Fox.
Still, I think it’s to his credit that he doesn’t ape Blair by patronisingly lapsing into what used to be known as ‘Duke of Windsor Cockney’.
‘I want to say to the single mother who worries about the air she breathes….’ - bit of Bill Clinton ‘I feel your pain’ stuff here.
Do you think Cameron meant to start his speech with “Being leader of the opposition is one of the most difficult jobs in government”?
73 - Max, British conservatives (small c) are comfortable with anti-Europeanism, authoritarianism, family values, etc etc. They are not comfortable with untrammelled laissez-faire economics. Look at the trends - you are winning the war for the C1s and C2s, the older people (who are after all more likely to vote) and the more numerous South East of England.
Rifkind was good I thought. Certainly in a different league to Cameron. And though I have money on Cameron I have to say only a dyed in the wool blue is likely to be impressed by the mawkishly overblown speech he’s just made. He’s a lightweight. Don’t be fooled by the audience. Remember they whooped at IDS!
Good speech ….
Very good ?? Good enough ???
Must confess to being impressed
I wasn’t totally convinced by his reasons for joining the Conservative Party…
72 - “Win or lose, I believe it is the platform we must fight on.”
And I used to tell people that the Tories’ problem wasn’t at all analogous to Labour’s Militant Tendency.
A very good comment Tabman. Striking out with radical economic and social liberalism would actually put us at odds with the British public on both social and economic issues.
70 - The Church of England’s problem for the past 50 years has been wishy washy liberalism. In contrast, today those parts of the CofE that are “conservative” are absolutely thriving with church plants left, right and centre.
I hesitate to say he blew it because he performed to the best of his ability - this wasn’t enough to get him into contention. I don’t think the accent is as much of a problem as the posh boy rosy cheeks.
Thought he was better than Rifkind tbh, Rifkind had an air of desperation to him DC was pretty smooth.
His wife looked good too which should never be overlooked as a factor in Tory selections.
86 - Anybody would have been better than Rifkind, who is dead in the water.
I thought Bercow’s comments were perceptive. A lot of people have been ignoring the extent to which Cameron is standing on quite a traditional right wing platform, even though the media always place him as fighting it out with Ken for the left of the party.
83 - Sean, thanks. Part of the problem the Lib Dems have under FPTP is a support base that is too broad in both class and geographical terms. Focussing your appeal on particular constituencies (in both senses) seems to me to make electoral sense.
The rosy cheeks (and slightly pudgy face) were singled out by the image consultant (Nicky Hambleton-Jones) on the Daily Politics yesterday.
Interesting though it is to know that his wife looked good I don’t know that this forum with it’s blue bias is the place to point out the shallowness of the Tory selectors.
With apologies to Lord Curzon (and Chrisco):
My name is George Nathaniel Curzon,
I am a most superior person.
My cheeks are pink, my hair is sleek,
I dine at Blenheim once a week.
My name is David William Donald Cameron,
My life is better than that of everyman.
My cheeks are pink, my hair is sleek,
I hope former Tories will take a peek.
My name is Kenneth Clarke
On hearing me the floaters hark
My cheeks wobble, my hair’s from a bottle
Will the Lib Dems fear me? I think a lot’ll.
My name is Dr Liam Fox
I come across well on the box
My cheeks are pink, my hair is neat
I think I’ve got the others beat!
My name is David … Davis
I appeal to Ethel, Maude and Mavis
My lats are buff, my hair is real
I have John Major’s sex-appeal
Malcolm Rifkind: call me Sir
From the chicken run I did twice demur
My accent is wrong but my experience long
I’m the only contender with a gong
Has Nuala gone into mourning for Sir Malc? Last price matched 199 -1 (79-1 on offer now) - It sounds as if he will need a shoulder to cry on Nuala, even if he will never carry you over the threshold of No10 or even do a LG with you in the cabinet room>
Liam Fox is less than impressive. I know that ties are demode but aren’t aspiring leaders are allowed to shave?
94 - It’s a sign that he is the man of the moment. Too much in demand for the niceties of shaving for the media…
94 - Honestly! Did the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury shave? Did the 8th Duke of Devonshire? Did George Michael?
96 book value. Did Jack W shave this morning ?!?! …. did he Wilkinson Sword !!
Sorry I missed the fun this morning, but I’ve been re-arranging the blue nun in my wine cellar
I only caught some highlights of the Cameron speech, but the consensus seemed to be that it was a decent performance but nothing to get too stired up about. I notice his priced has shortened considerably.
I know shaving is discouraged among Liberal party members but the young Turks of the Tory party appealing to their large pensioner wing usually take grooming very seriously indeed!
Does anyone know if Michael Ancram will be speaking at the conference?
99 book value. Yes Lothian
is speaking, but not today. I understand he will announce in his speech if he is standing. He’s said he’ll need 25 MPs to get of the mark. No chance.
100 - thanks Jack.
Is Sean Fear going to have his photo taken with Michael Ancram? It would seem a shame to miss out on the caption “Fear and Lothian in Blackpool”.
100 - Yeah, but how many MPs are “Cornerstone”? 25? Could be enough to get Ancram going (and in doing so totally throw open the race for second place).
102 - don’t you think quite a few of the Cornerstoners will see your man as the best they can get, FB, rather than risk it on Ancram? Or do you think he is best off distancing himself from them?
Listening to various news stations it’s sounding like David Cameron has the wind in his sails. Perhaps my money isn’t lost after all. It would be unusual but I’m starting to think that it’s a possibility. It would probably be the result the Lib Dems would most welcome. Even Charlie Kennedy looks like he has gravitas next to him
“Fear and Lothian in Blackpool”
Very good! But I can’t make it this year.
It’s a good question. I think Foxy is as good as the Cornerstoners are going to get in the current field, and if all 25 of them came out and backed him that would utterly change the dynamic of the contest (he’d be streets ahead of Cameron and possibly even Clarke). However, an Ancram leadership bid may be more to do with getting the specific Cornerstone agenda into the arena, rather than wanting to have Ancram as leader (because, to be honest, no-one’s going to vote him as leader when push comes to shove).
The worry is that Ancram runs, pulls votes from Foxy (knocking him out) and then, being Ancram, fails to have impact beyond the 1st / 2nd ballot. That would mean that the social conservative camp would end up with nobody. The best thing for Cornerstone to do, if they really want to be heard, is to swallow their pride on the bits of Foxy they don’t like, and back him to the max. Foxy vs Ancram - Foxy wins any day (and that’s not just because I’m backing him - let’s be realistic).
Whatchathink?
“Fear and Lothian in Blackpool”.
Excellent!
106 - Your analysis seems sensible to me. I don’t expect the Cornerstone Group to take advice from me, but I think that backing Fox is the most sensible course for them.
108 - Of course it’s sensible - We’re foxy!!!!
Re. 96, no. But he did promise the LAPD officer in the cubicle that he’d come quietly…..
Re. 77, blue bias? Just as much yellow bias, I’d have thought (the Smithsons, Tabman, Mark Senior, to name but a few) Still, all the LDs here are much nicer (and far more sensible) than the LDs who help (mis)govern my local council.
109 - I see your man “Dr” Fox has had a makeover. Get wiv da kids!
110 -
Which council is that?
106/109. Fox Blogger. What with Lothian, Leigh and Fox vying for the crackpot vote in the Tory leadership contest, I’m surprised the Wokingham klingon doesn’t throw his ears in the ring for an out of this world experience for us all. Such a quartet would be irresistable - whistling away the Tories chances for a generation .. I’ll get Peter Lilley to conduct … singing not being his strongpoint.
110. Its not Southwark is it?
112 - “I’ll get Peter Lilley to conduct … singing not being his strongpoint.”
He doesn’t bother to serenade them, then, but moves straight in for the coup de grace?
114 Tabman. He can’t sing in French either !
I have to say that I was very impressed with Cameron today and have a lot of time for what he has to say. However I found the blatant fixing of the Newsnight survey very off-putting. Who are these people? They certainly aren’t like my colleagues or friends, or any of the major surveys or polls on this subject. I cannot believe that the Tories would rocket in the polls if Cameron was leader.
Jack W - I trust the Blue Nun is wholly satisfied following your re-arrangement of her
Though I like Clark I think his reputation is a figment of our collective imaginations. He’s just not very inspiring is he? If the Lib Dems put Ming Cambell against him he would look very reduced indeed. I’m starting to understand why Davis is the default setting. Remove Rifkind and it really is quantity and not quality.
It seems I missed a lot today too.
33.Countryman. I’m not so sure the majority of Labour members are so unhappy with and want him to go soon, except the ones on the Left (hopefully for them they aren’t all 80 years old).
34. Alex. I saw the joke, but I thought the first part was real (at least it sounded plausible).
64. Cornerstone is the tory version of the Campaign Group.
70. Sean Fear. And where did the current strategy take you? Ah, yes, to 3 defeats in 3 elections!
Btw, good speech by May yesterday. I don’t think it went down well between contemtible tories in Bromley (and some of their friends in Falmouth)
88. I agree. I can’t understand why Cameron is described as an ultra-moderniser. If Cameron is a moderniser, Clare Short is 100% pure new labour.
Btw, I liked Cameron’s delivery of his speech much more than Ken’s one (I’m talking about what they said, but about the performance).
78. Tabman. How their social conservativism will go down in seats Hove, Brighton Kemptown, Hampstead and Highgate? All seats they’ve to win if they want to rule the country again.
119.”(I’m talking about what they said”
ops, it should be “I’m NOT talking…..”
116 - do we really think the Newsnight survey was fixed? How? To what end? It certainly did produce a remarkable result I know, but is any of that down to the dynamics of a group in an unusual circumstances perhaps subconsciously wanting to provide to be in agreement with one another than direct BBC influence?
And that’s enough amateur pyschology for now…