Big changes on the betting markets this morning after the front-runner, David Davis, made his 20 minutes speech to delegates assembled in Blackpool’s Winter Gardens.
On the Betfair betting exchange the Davis price opened at 0.78/1 – thus a £100 bet would produce profits of £78. Within an hour of him finishing the price had slumped to 1.08/1. So a wining bet will, as of time of posting, produce £108. This is a long way off what 0.58/1 that was the best you could get at times over the weekend.
The main beneficiaries have been Ken Clarke and David Cameron who have both seen tightening in their prices.
But Davis still has a lot on his side – in particular the public support of nearly a third of the parliamentary party.
One piece of potential bad news came on our discussion forums this morning with this contribution from George Tregarne of the Daily Telegraph. The move on Cameron prices is interesting because it shows he is rising to the occasion, which is the mark of any true leader. It has certainly made us sit up at the Telegraph. We are in a quandary who to back because the paper’s support can often be critical and we want to use our influence wisely (and not have a repeat of IDS). Davis is clearly a man of substance, but his lack of star quality in comparison to Cameron is reinforced by some of the bullies around him. Perhaps the most interesting thing so far has been the Newsnight poll on Monday which showed Cameron ahead by a mile among voters – swing, Tory and Labour. It was remarkable. I would buy Cameron at this price.
If the Telegraph comes out for Cameron then that could be crucial.