Punters desert Davis after lacklustre speech
October 5th, 2005
Big changes on the betting markets this morning after the front-runner, David Davis, made his 20 minutes speech to delegates assembled in Blackpool’s Winter Gardens.
On the Betfair betting exchange the Davis price opened at 0.78/1 - thus a £100 bet would produce profits of £78. Within an hour of him finishing the price had slumped to 1.08/1. So a wining bet will, as of time of posting, produce £108. This is a long way off what 0.58/1 that was the best you could get at times over the weekend.
The main beneficiaries have been Ken Clarke and David Cameron who have both seen tightening in their prices.
But Davis still has a lot on his side - in particular the public support of nearly a third of the parliamentary party.
One piece of potential bad news came on our discussion forums this morning with this contribution from George Tregarne of the Daily Telegraph. The move on Cameron prices is interesting because it shows he is rising to the occasion, which is the mark of any true leader. It has certainly made us sit up at the Telegraph. We are in a quandary who to back because the paper’s support can often be critical and we want to use our influence wisely (and not have a repeat of IDS). Davis is clearly a man of substance, but his lack of star quality in comparison to Cameron is reinforced by some of the bullies around him. Perhaps the most interesting thing so far has been the Newsnight poll on Monday which showed Cameron ahead by a mile among voters - swing, Tory and Labour. It was remarkable. I would buy Cameron at this price.
If the Telegraph comes out for Cameron then that could be crucial.
Mike Smithson
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Well, perhaps it is just me, but as an occasional Conservative voter who assumed Clarke was the man for the job, I thought this speech was pretty good. There are some points on which I disagree with Davis. Chief amongst these is Europe, but I suppose I am out of step with most Conservatives on that point. I also tend to think he overdoes the single-parent, concil-estate background. Yet overall I felt reassured by his performance.
I have a bit of a feeling that the media has decided that the theme of the week is “frontrunner wobbles” and Davis would be condemned as a second IDS even if he had sounded for all the world like a second JFK. Key is whether he holds his nerve in the face of this, but I would have thought odds now below evens represent excellent value (particularly for those smart enough - not me! - to have had a punt on outsiders earlier on who I suppose can now lock in profits).
I watched that Newsnight poll and thought it was being manipulated. Voters were shown clips of Cameron being modest and saying “we” very often, and of Clarke and Davis being boastful and saying “I” all the time. It didn´t surprise me that the voters opted for Cameron. Show them different clips (Clarke in the Transit van moving out of Number 11, Davis making his 7/7 speech) and you might have had a very different response.
I also thought the age and torpor of the Tory activists shown (at Blackpool) was … encouraging!
The Telegraph’s backing is a major factor that we’ve neglected so far. The Times and Mail are presumably also important, perhaps also the Sun.
I’d also missed the Newsnight poll. If Cameron is ahead among voters despite never having been a Cabinet minister then that is very impressive indeed.
Having said that it’s entirely possible that this is a market over-reaction to the conference speech.
Often a contender can put themselves out in an instant, as happened to the front-runner in the Democratic nomination stakes before the last US election. It doesn’t sound as if that’s happened. With all those public backings and given the rules, it’s hard to see Davies being out any time soon, although it is possible. That gives Davies plenty of time to recover. So I think it’s more likely that Davies has had a wobble than a fall and the price will recover.
I still can’t see how someone with so little experience as Cameron can take on Blair and Brown, and surely Tory MPs and members can’t overlook that. And my initial judgement on Clarke was that Europe is important to party members and potentially a nightmare issue for Clarke as leader.
My money’s still on Davis, and I’ve added a little at the better odds.
DD badly needs 65 votes+ in the first round, if not he is in serious trouble the centre will drift to Clarke and Cameron and the right to Liam Fox.
Still think only a joint ticket of Clarke and Cameron with the membership being strong armed has any chance against him if he makes the final two though
2 - James, see the comments from the story directly below this one; nearly all the contributors on here (Tory or not) were criticising Davis’ speech before anyone in the official media uttered a word.
If David Cameron can get into the final two, David Davies will be in real trouble.
Howard wanted the long game to give Cameron a real shot and stop Davies.
Looks like the stragedy is working a treat.
7 - Looks like the stragedy is working a treat.
Was that intentional?
No afraid not, but could be correct.
DD might be well advised to make a “passionate and spontaneous” speech to a rally of Davis supporters, and to get television time for this. He can’t let the conference speech stand as the height of his oratorical powers, and he won’t have a lot of time impress in the Commons before ballot season begins.
I’m a worried Davis supporter. Cameron has massive momentum and has had a superbly organised campiagn around the winter gardens.
I think David Davis needs the support of the Telegraph urgently to give him some momentum back. If he doesnt get it or gets it very late in the day the loss of ‘mementum’ will be crippling. In these kind of races momentum is everything and if he appears to be losing it then even his 66 ‘declared’ MP supporters cannot be guarenteed.
A Davis-Cameron final two, after this week, could lead to an extremely tight result.
Prediction:
Howard will make a magnificant speech - the party will rise as one and beg him to stay as leader. Davis will look very 3rd rate in comparison to the loser Howard.
14 Icarus. Stay of the single malt a little old chap !!
What price a late William Hague entry…………..
………..He would sweep the board !
16 Tory Boy. Are you defecting already ??? I thought you were made of sterner stuff - DD may yet rise again
DD now near Evens on conventional markets !! Quite a slide.
An interesting demonstration of how the tide may be turning against Davis is that Stephen Crabb (Preseli Pembrokeshire), my local MP and occasional visitor to this site, has now pledged his vote to Fox. This is despite Crabb’s political advisor telling the local press that his boss was leaning towards David Davis and Davis coming down to West Wales and praising Crabb to the skies.
With Ancram not standing and Leigh unlikely to Fox seems well placed to pick up the Cornerstone vote and therefore must be in with a good chance of reaching the last two. I believe Fox’s odds are over generous and will bet accordingly. As a Labour member I must say that a Fox win would just about make my year.
18.Jack, do you know if someone is going to declare for Ken in the next few days? The moment is shifting away from him to Cameron as the main challenger.
20 Andrea. I do know of someone(s)
….. however, unusualy for me, my lips are sealed 
21. Somone “big”?
Btw, in my comment@20, it should be “the momentum….”, not the moment
22 Andrea. You’re obsessed with size !! ……. certainly more chunky than dinky and a few funky than manky !!!
23. Jack. We could touch some “hot” topics here. Tories posters could be shocked
But is the new backer more hunky than dinky and more manky than fatty?
23. Jack. Is the new backer more hunky than dinky and more manky than fatty?
17 Only based on the speeches Jack !
Excellant article. This is something I’ve being saying for months. Davis would be a disaster. He couldn’t rouse even the faithful. There was no passion in his voice no fire in his belly as he always is in the Media. Cameron was so much better.
Andrea I would guess that Rifkind would face reality and bow out soon. He would likely back KC. I think its difficult to pick between KC and David for second place. Until we get a feel for MP reactions next week it’ll be hard to tell. Although the Telegraph won’t back Clarke, I suppose, their front page headline today was very helpful to him. On the face of it David did as well as KC yesterday in the view of representatives but you wouldn’t know it from the Telegraph treatment.
Another factor is that the Right must be getting nervous about either DC or KC beating Davis but how should they react? One tactic; pile in behind Fox to get two right Wingers in the last two. Another to pile in behind Davis so that he has a big lead among MPs going into the Membership phase which would enormous pressure on the membership to fall into line. They’ll have to choose pretty soon.
Fox was the other candidate who came out well on the newsnight poll wasn´t he? Seems to have done very well today.
Gavin @ 4
The Mail came out for Clarke when he launched his campaign so that element is off the table, it’s just the Times and Telegraph and I think The Times could come out for Cameron - Murdoch won’t allow it to back Clarke because of his European views and he won’t back Davis if he continues to look like a loser.
Happy with the Davis speech - just as expected. Well received in the hall, strong on substance but not the best delivery. Thatcher 1975 not 1983.
Cameron has done himself lots of favours this week and I hope he joins Davis in the final two.
27- Blue Moon. The backing of Sir Malcolm could be helpful for Ken to turn the attention on him again as the main challenger.
Cameron was impressive yesterday. I don’t like him very much, so I was prepared to “dislike” his performance yesterday, but I wasn’t able to do it.
28. Peter.What did this Newsnight poll show? I couldn’t watch Newsnight, but I read lots of mention about this poll today.
25 Tory Boy. What was your take on the Fox speech ?
30 John T. You must have been listening to and falling asleep with a different speech to most of the rest of us !!
One thing people should remember though before they write Davis off. If he gets through to the final two, then he has one very big advantage. He is the shadow home secretary. Opportunities for the shadow education secretary to shine vs the government are scarce, and Clarke isn’t even in the Shadow cabinet. Davis will inevitably remain the centre of media interest.
32 - Jack I’m sure you had most of your comments written even before the speech, like many lazy journalists. Davis is always going to favour badly in relation to Cameron/Clarke on platform speaking, as Clarke would on uniting the party or Cameron on experience. Overall Davis lived up to expectations today, nothing more, nothing less.
33. There’re more opportunity to give a bad performance too. I suppose he’ll under pressure to show something in the next big home affair debate in the Commons (if there’ll be something before the members vote).
34 John T. I dealing in the political realities here. All across the media networks DD has been savaged - see previous thread - I assure you the morning papers will not make happy reading and like it or not this Tory beauty contest was the candidates big moment to date, and DD blew it !!
DD is now in recovery mode and his spin machine is working overtime to try and salvage something from the wreckage of today.
34 Living up the expections if these ones are low isn’t a very good thing. I could go to the tory conference next year and living up the expectations (being able to leave the conference hall alive)
36 Jack - as I said the story was written before - basically stating the obvious.
- and William Hague got the biggest the response of the week and beat Blair weekly in terms of oratory in the Commons and as he himself says, ” little good it did me. “
A totally unscientific poll on ITV News has Cameron and Fox as top two. Whether they’d be top two among the MPs remains to be seen.
Cameron’s position on betfair is continuing to improve: at 2.4/1 now. Clear second over Ken.
Clarke and serving in the shadow cabinet if he’ll fail again this time: “It would depend on whether he was asked, what job he was offered and whether he thought he would be “parked” on the front bench for six months before being fired. ” (from BBC website)
38 John T. Yes, but in the context of the contest this was a very bad day for DD. And when you get Michael Brown , DD friend and media cheerleader, stating that DD “bombed” it’s not all prejudged. And in any case tens of thousands of Conservative members will have seen on the box and in their papaers in the morning that DD didn’t cut the mustard. That’s the reality.
41.”And when you get Michael Brown ”
Talking about Michael Brown, what’s the point of having him (or someone else to be fair) on SkyNews to do the next day’s papers review? He just read the main headlines (and he doesn’t even read very well!) and said what the articles talk about. I suppose the two Sky journalists are able to do it withour someone else’s help!
41.Could DD’s support collapse? The MP’s supporting him must know now he is likely to be crushed amongst the Membership by almost anyone now. So voting for him is wasting their Choice?
41 - Yes, in relative terms DD had a bad day. If the leadership is a decathalon, today was his weakest event.
44. “. If the leadership is a decathalon, today was his weakest event.”
Athletes sometimes don’t recover from their bad events if the performance is really terrible. How bad was DD today? A 3 faults in the long jump or a 7.10 meters (always in the long jump)?
43 Anon. I don’t expect DD’s support to collapse. However if DD fails to reach 100 (66 declared and 30 ish undecided) he will be perceived to have failed, despite gaining half the CPP.
We could have a wounded DD in the members vote with ……. ??? our Ken or DC and I think either would has a good chance of winning the final vote.
Its not a decathalon - its the one in which you swim for miles then cycle then run. If you are half an hour behind after the swimming then it is difficult to make it up
45 Andrea. In high jump
terms DD failed to clear the bar three times !! Of course our Ken rarely comes out of the bar 
45 - It was in no way terrible - it wasn’t up to the stardard of Cameron or Clarke. ( The image of Clarke doing the long jump is disturbing me ! )Close to DD’s personal best, I’d say.
I don’t think many of the MP’s who have backed him in the last couple of months would have been expecting much more - they had no reason to think so. DD’s top qualities don’t include platform speaking.
45. It is not just that Davis makes bad speeches it is that this is something that you can do something about if you are so minded. It’s not just his delivery but the substance where he falls down. We’ve all heard the “son of single mum on a council estate bit” which Davis trots out on regular occasions. Compare that with the elegance of the way that Fox, Cameron and Clarke described aspects of their lives. These were lines that had been worked at time and time again - Cameron with his son, Clarke with rejection last time and Fox with his background - and all three handled these aspect with elegance and finesse.
Davis just blundered in with the same old line that we have all heard before. Making a speech as important as these are work and Davis did not appear to have put the effort in.
He’s got his team to bribe and brow-beat career-minded Tory MPs and he thinks that that is enough.
48. Jack, was KC the mattress to protect athletes?
47- Oh, that decathlon!. I don’t like it.
Well, the example could be made with the other decathlon: if you’re 2000 points behind after the first day…..
47 - Icarus - Current score is Davis 64, Cameron 19, Clarke 18 . As you say ” If you are half an hour behind after the swimming then it is difficult to make it up ”
50 - Mike - Context is important. He wasn’t speaking to you , Lib Dem Conference was two weeks ago. He was speaking to conservative MP’s and members, the electorate of the next few months. If he wins then he can then broaden the message.
50-” It’s not just his delivery but the substance where he falls down.Davis just blundered in with the same old line that we have all heard before. Making a speech as important as these are work and Davis did not appear to have put the effort in. ”
It should be a easiest problem to overcome than the speeches’ delivery: hire a good speech writer soon!
Maybe he fails to see the problem.
50. John T, if the image of Clarke doing the long jump is disturbing, you, think about Widdy doing the 20 Kilometres Race Walk (or Duncan doing the high jump)!
Money’s just been bet on Hague at 50 on Betfair - his lowest price for ages.
I know it’s incredibly unlikely but is it just possible that Hague could enter at the last minute saying something like:
“I didn’t plan to stand as I thought David Davis was the man for the job but if it can’t be him then I believe I am the next best person etc ……”
53-” a easiest problem ”
ops, a easiER problem.
52. Perhaps I should watch this speech. After all these reactions, I’m not that inclined to give me that punishment (I already have problems to understand DD). Maybe tomorrow morning…..now I’ve to watch “Midsomer Murders”.
38 - I really do think this hague got the better of blair at pmqs is a myth clung onto by a tory minority.
Hague made jokes, some funny, some embarasing, and err, that’s it! He primarily came over as wooden,ungenuine and stuck to tired formulas. He often stuck to his pre-prepared 3 questions (and pre-prepared jokes) even when blair went off on unexpected tangents. Utterly hopeless more like!
56. And Howard’s jokes are usually better than Hague’s ones!
51 Andrea. I rather like the idea of our Ken stubbing out his cigar on a (Gordon) brown blazored field event judge as he enters the hammer cage, competing for BAT - Beasts Athletic Team - rubs cigar ash on his hands, saunters into the circle and scrapes his hush puppies on the cinders. Then tosses away his fedora, swigging volumously from a hip flask and then ……. he hammer(blows) Tony Blair out of the stadium with a beast of a throw. Gold medal for Ken
Didn’t see DD today. But I watched DC and KC in a busy newsroom. Many hacks were taken aback by how good Cameron was. Likewise they thought KC was in great form.
I took 12-1 last week on Cameron because I thought the price was value on the basis that events often change things. Can’t believe how things are turning out.
As for Hague entering at the last min. He seems a happy, content man now. Why would he want to do job again.
I missed Rifkind and most of Cameron. I expect I would have liked Rifkind; what I saw of Cameron I did like; I detested Clarke; I liked Davis; detested Fox (and Osborne); liked Hague (a lot). But I’m a LibDem or Green voter, and not a member of any party, so this has little to do with their political positions and is irrelevent to Tories.
I didn’t hear the speeches of any of the candidates except Fox but I am surprised to see the views expressed that Fox did well. On that basis Davis must have been truly abysmal because what I heard from Fox was at the best pretty turgid.
As I recall Fox is in favour of flying the union jack in schools and in favour of the family. The best I can say about that is so what?
His grandfathers were miners and as a doctor he listens to patients before telling them what is really wrong with them. Gosh, what a great guy.
On Iraq he tried to maintain the Michael Howard tight rope balancing act of being against Tony Blair but in favour of invading Iraq.
Is this one of the best the tories can come up with? I can barely imagine what the rest are like if they are worse than this.
61 - I think Davis’ problem was in his delivery not the content of the speech. Radio 5 gave a quote from Chris Moncrieff (?) saying that Davis had a potentially great speech but didn’t know how to say it.
*great is perhaps a bit too strong a word.
59. ‘As for Hague entering at the last min. He seems a happy, content man now. Why would he want to do job again.’ The Times is reporting that he may be about to return to frontline politics in the Shadow Cabinet as Shadow Chancellor or Shadow Foreign Secretary once the leadership election is over….
64 - Xenon. Yes, I think is ready to return to the front bench.
DD was quoted ( talking about Hague ) in The Times Magazine on Saturday, “We went walking the other day, 12 miles up the Dales. He’s a nice man, a good man, a very clever man. He’ll be Prime Minister one day, it’ll happen.”
So DD obviously wants him in, maybe Hague could have given him a few tips today………..
This all reminds me of the time Portillo fell just one vote behind Duncan Smith in the three-way ballot of July 2001 and then subsequently left politics. If you recall, Portillo was the front-runner for a long time: “seems virtually certain to win” said the BBC website in June. He then fought a disastrous campaign and fell behind IDS and Clarke in the 3-way ballot. An MP I know closely tried to bargain a last-minute unifying ticket of Portillo-Clarke. That actually proved disastrous and sent more MPs to IDS, enough to sneak him through to the final 2. Who knows, maybe this time round, an alliance will be struck involving Clarke, which will lead to similar dramatic consequences?
May I remind you that Portillo’s support included a weighty pack: Liam Fox, Francis Maude, Theresa May, George Osborne, David Willetts and Tim Yeo, all of whom then were not 100% behind IDS from the beginning, hence decapitation.
IDS’ support was made up of Michael Ancram (after dropping out) and David Davis (after dropping out), but no weighty front-line politician.
Clarke’s support of course was also lightweight with Boris Johnson and Ann Widdecombe amongst a lot of non-descripts.
What is this crazy talk about bringing back William Hague? People have such sort memories. He was a disaster as Tory leader, a bit of a joke figure really. He knows it himself and has become a more rounded person since he left the leadership, I don’t think he’s that stupid to go back to that.
65. DD was himself, he is never going to be a great orator, but as long as he sticks to what he is good at which is the interviews etc and if he has a Shadow Cabinet of all the talents then his colleagues will probably cover his weaknesses..
Does anyone know what the BBC “perceptometer” (or whatever it was called) showed for the two speeches today?
Re. 56, as a Labour Party member who watched PMQs when Hague was leader, my own verdict was that Hague got the better of Blair quite a few times, rather than all the time (or even most of the time). As for the jokes sometimes being embarrassing, I didn’t hear any of his jokes today, but some of his previous jokes about Peter Mandelson in the Commons (’Lord Mandelson of Rio’) and the after-dinner speaking circuit (saying how he was sure Tony Blair must be glad he hadn’t got a reverse gear with Mandelson standing behind him) have been strangely homophobic for a politician who, we’re told, has plenty of gay friends (and who used to share a house with Alan Duncan).
In fact, there’s an even longer pedigree - he once joked at the Oxford Union that the SDP was ‘the heterosexual wing of the Liberal Party’.
67. It is precisely because he is more rounded that people can talk about him returning to front line politics. No-one is suggesting the leadership…. But just watch the speech he gave this afternoon. The guy is a huge talent that should be used…..
67 Remember Clarke’s alliance with Redwood in 1997 as well.
IDS did have Hague as a backer, as the last leader he might have been seen as a big hitter
70. We need to keep in perspective what is genuinely offensive and what is a joke.. If we take your comments to their logical conclusion almost every modern stand-up comedian would be hounded off the stage…
70. I don’t find the “Lord Mandelson de Rio” joke homophobic. It was like saying “Lord Blunkett of (where does Kimberly Quinn come from?)”.
The second one about Mandelson was very tasteless and embarassing (infact I remember reading people present at that dinner weren’t impressed).
I’ve my own theory about why he made this type of jokes.
Hague’s biggest problem is his last, frankly embarrassing, performance on Have I Got News For You. If he ever decides to re-enter frontline politics he’d better hope that doesn’t see the light of day
75. Oh I think he is big enough to laugh it off…
76 - did you see it? Bernard Manning would have been worried by the competition.
76. Yes, HIGNFY is a light hearted entertainment show, designed to be satirical and funny. So he made some tasteless jokes. Far worse gets uttered at any comedy joint in the country… and they don’t suffer…
74 - Andrea, does it involve what the Americans call a wardrobe?
78 - I was only being semi-serious. But politicians don’t usually get away with racist jokes. I think there would have been much more of a fuss kicked up at the time if there wasn’t a perception that Hague had detached himself from politics.
70.” (saying how he was sure Tony Blair must be glad he hadn’t got a reverse gear with Mandelson standing behind him) ”
The full joke was: agree with a lot of the things the Prime Minister says. Particularly that I have no reverse gear.
I too wouldn’t have a reverse gear if Peter Mandelson was standing behind me
Maybe my description of the joke as “very tasteless” was a bit exaggerated, but I still find it embarassing for a party leader to say these things.
And then I suppose that Mandelson is not interested in doing something with Hague! (just compare a picture of Hague and one of Reinaldo and you’ll discover why).
79. Tabman. More or less. there were rumours (I’m not saying those rumours were true) and these types of jokes are sometimes used to distance yourself from these kinds of rumours.
82 - Andrea, the phenomenon is certainly not uncommon, and has been applied in other circumstances (as I believe we’ve discussed in the past!). I’d heard certain rumours from media sources also.
lol - there are ALWAYS rumours about unmarried men in politics. That doesn’t make them true.
72 - I acknowledge your point, but would hardly call Hague’s support a blessing in light of the 2001 election result. I suppose you’ve touched on the crux of the matter - the past 3 Tory leaders could never be Prime Ministers because they were not just not as photogenic as Tony Blair, but they were the reverse: they were all characters out of the Munsters. Before them, John Major looked like a bank manager and also had zero charisma, but then he saw off someone who looked more ghastly than him in 2002.
See previous post from some time back: why Margaret Beckett lost to Tony Blair in 1994 despite having more “experience”.
I suppose on that basis, Cameron just edges Clarke who edges Davis, who has something of the nose about him. The score being 0 to 1 to 3 on broken noses.
83. Tabman. Those kinds of rumours are sometimes made up and spread by opponents to attack politicians. A senior MPs of your party has been subjected to them too (and he accused his opponents to spread them to damage him).
When have we discussed this phenomenon? I think I wasn’t there yet.
84. Hear, Hear, that kind of rumour about single men generally is far worse than any near to the bone joke. The implication of spreading the rumour is that the person is or is doing something that is not acceptable…..
84. Alex, does anyone suggested they were true here?
I’m sure no one would have suggested them even if Blunkett had been a bachelor
87. Exactly! And they sometimes involve married politicians too (Portillo and Lilley for ex.)
88.”Alex, does anyone suggested they were true here?”
I’m horrified by my own sentence. It should be ” has anyone suggested….”
86 - remember, all those anti-jokes, and bravado? Closet Lib Dems …
90. Oh, yes, Tabman. I remember it now! I’ve been accused by you to be one of them too……..
Alan Duncan said that after this speech he won’t support Davis.
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/d38ba896-35d2-11da-903d-00000e2511c8.html
85 ” the past 3 Tory leaders could never be Prime Ministers because they were not just not as photogenic as Tony Blair, but they were the reverse: they were all characters out of the Munsters. ”
Exactly the view I have expressed many times - once to my candidate at the 2001 election ( who is now an MP ) after a bad canvassing spell trying to sell Hague. It is not just the way they look but how they act - Howard is the archetypal ‘ Munster ‘, he actually played up to it. Looks like a vampire and promotes all the negative issues, Blair is a liar, immigration, crime etc.
Davis and Cameron are the normal members of the family.
Deputy Leader & Shadow Defence Secretary Michael Ancram has announced that he won’t contest the Leadership election and will step down from the frontbench after the leadership election. That will start the shuffle off nicely with roles such as Deputy & Defence up for grabs without a sacking! Any other news on who is standing down or wanting to come back? IIRC Maude and Lansley are prone to stropping off and then returning.
79/83 Tabman. Apart from American wardrobes are there any rumours about Scottish Tallboys or Plymouth Davenports !! What about all the gossip concerning Fatty Soames bowfront chest or Mandelson’s dresser !! There’s also the Corner(stone) cupboard with the plank top
although some might only be demi lune(ies).
DD might console (table) himself that half the Tories don’t know their whatnots from their elbow chairs. The press may c(offer) some dumb (waiter) (s)tools to enable him to towel (rail) himself down and get that dwarf (side) cabinet chap Dinky to rouse the dumb waiters who haven’t declared yet
94 Tone. Ancram is going to spend more time with his titles - all 14 of them !1
95. Now your Ken has to lobby Hanky. He couldn’t let him to back Cameron.
The same rumours crop up all the time about Fox and he can’t be gay if he’s engaged and used to hang out with gorgeous pop stars.
94. Maude is in danger of being pushed before he jumps. You don’t hatchet up the activists and get away with it. Any sensible new leader would see that. Lansley will probably survive, he may get moved. Ancram’s decision is not a surprise, he is about as effective as a blunt spear.
98.-”he can’t be gay if he’s engaged”
well, Elton John has been married to a woman!
97 Andrea. The BBC is reporing that Hunky will endorse DC !!
Three cheers for the politicalbetting.com website - drowned in traffic to a greater extent than at the general election for the small matter of a tory leadership election (an event of almost mundane regularity). PB’s popularity is surely now greater than the ipod nano or that book that everyone’s reading, “the game”. And we still have another TWO MONTHS until we have an announcement on this one!! Roll on Christmas…
101. Jack, for your Ken is not looking good. I don’t think he’ll make the final two.
102. Could that be because the Tories look like taking the first albeit tentative steps towards recovery???
103 Andrea. Our Ken is playing the big game, which is appropriate for the beast of the jungle !!
Second and final update from Blackpool (as I will be back at home by this time tomorrow night):
DD’s speech was a clear disappointment - delivery was quite flat an unimpressive and though his section cheered him on, he seemed to leave most people I spoke to cold. His campaign team have got to be disappointed by the reaction he got from the floor. It was certainly not what was required of him after the strong performance put in by Cameron and Clarke yesterday and I think there will be negative repercussions for the Davis campaign over the next several days/weeks - watch for movement among MPs.
Fox’s speech was better than Davis’, but nothing dynamite. He may have shored up his existing support and perhaps he will win over a few Davis wobblers but I don’t think he’s catapulted himself into the first rank. Hague did very well. Hopefully he’ll be front and centre in the new Shadow Cabinet, whoever leads it.
Bow Group Fringe meeting was great fun - KC reminiscing about his days in Lady Thatcher’s cabinets and the rows they used to have. Amusing, and enjoyable. Moods are still very upbeat and there is a lot of excitement and anticipation.
I don’t think there is any question that Cameron will be the big beneficiary of the conference. He probably stands a decent (at least even) chance of winning IF he can reach the membership ballot.
106. Where will he get the votes needed?
103 - “or that book that everyone’s reading, “the game”"
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105 xeneon. Be careful of temporary stars that flash across the night sky and crash and burn. Our Ken is the real deal - a veritable constellation in the Conservative celestial heaven - Indeed, Ken’s Mars (bars) to DD’s Pluto (dog).
110 - was that post brought to us from Uranus, Jack?
110. Ken Clarke is a John Smith waiting to happen…. The Tories would rip themselves apart the minute a controversial EU issue came up. And you can bet your last pound coin that Labour would engineer it just for the fun of it……
108 Andrea. “… Where will he (Ken) get his votes from? ”
I’m arranging a postal ballot from Birmingham, aided by Jeb Bush from Florida and Robert Mugabe. Technical support from North Korea and counting of votes by Nick Leeson and the Maxwell brothers.
113. Jack. I shall remember you Clare Short is not allowed to vote and Portillo couldn’t send Diane Abbott to vote for Ken
111 book value. No I’m Saturn my ar*e trying to (nep)tune my political radar !
115 - our Fox bet has remained unspectacular, hasn’t it?
116 book value. I think Fox will pull in support in the coming week and you’ll be able to bale out of Fox should you wish !
117. jack, if even Fox gets support in the coming weeks, Clarke will risk to be throw out in the second round (after Sir Malcolm)! Ken should weak up.
Andrea at 87: When I was first a candidate for Broxtowe in 1997, I was unmarried and working abroad. I had reports that Tory canvassers were telling voters that I was (a) more or less a foreigner and (b) obviously gay. I often tell the story, adding the punchline: ‘I could never work out which they thought was worse…’ It gets a laugh even from deeply conservative audiences.
118 Andrea. I think that our Ken wasn’t hoping for a massive swing to him from the Tombstone Group !!
Well, I decided to actually watch the speeches rather than get the second hand reaction from everyone (which tends to be self-reinforcing). Thanks to the BBC website and streaming media, I’ve had that chance.
I’ve been fortunate enough to receive some public speaking training (thanks to some investment by my employers), so I decided (rather arrogantly) to assess the speakers as if I were training them (for what it’s worth). Here goes:
Rifkind:
Confident start – opening joke seemed to fall a bit flat – grin appeared a bit forced, but recovered well. Spoke in front of lectern without notes (bonus points if you pull it off - which he did). Tone and pitch perfect. Gestures very good. Very fluent throughout. Rhetoric was only area where he could have been better – it was merely excellent. He needed it to be Churchillian. Overall Excellent
Cameron:
Poised, good tone, good use of pitch. Gestures not overstated. Also spoke in front of lectern without notes. Resisted urge to “wander” platform (often an easy mistake to make when you’re speaking in front of it). Very fluent. Licked lips a trifle nervously once or twice. Not much to improve on - impressive. Overall Excellent (just behind Rifkind).
Clarke:
Good start – drink of water trick and conversational start. Spoke behind lectern with notes. A couple of pause/stumbles early on. Tone a bit off – a touch hectoring in places. Pacing good. Seemed to grab hold of lectern with both hands in places-should avoid this. Got more fluent as went along – but still seemed a bit arrogant. Gestures right.
– Areas of improvement, should tone down the “commanding” - his tone is like that of someone in an argument raising pitch and volume to drown you out. Overall: Good
Davis:
Also spoke behind lectern with notes. Pitch is wrong – too earnest/cajoling. Has the look/bearing that can go with gravitas rather than Blairite “wheedling persuasion”. A good speech coach should be able to sort that out. Occasional shuffling from one foot to another. Decent use of changing pitch, expression, varying direction of intended audience. Gesturing average – seemed overstated at times (goes with the inaccurate pitch).
Areas of improvement: Change pitch/tone. Reverse of Clarke’s “problem” - needs to be less cajoling, more commanding.
Overall: Average to Good (slightly behind Clarke).
Fox.
Also spoke behind lectern with notes. Slightly stilted start. Pacing a little too slow throughout. Occasionally did a “shuffle” behind lectern. A little too “smiley”. Gestures occasionally off – ranged from too understated too to overstated. Good use of pitch, however. Too “cajoling” in places.
Areas of improvement: Needs to adjust pacing, aim for more commanding/less cajoling.
Overall: Average to Good (level with Davis).
That’s my impression, anyway. All were probably better than me. In terms of expectations, all bar one were more-or-less where I expected them to be. The exception was Cameron - better than expected. Rifkind was always expected to be the best, but he was pressed by Cameron. Clarke was not as good as the second-hand reports had led me to believe, and Davis and Fox weren’t as bad as had been made out.
33 Sorry Jack, been out at a residents meeting….
Bearing in mind he’s my 2nd choice I’m not quite sure what to say about Foxy’s (or DD’s) as there seems to be something of a miscast between me and perceived wisdom at the moment.
I personally thought Foxy was a little off form today and actually aimed his speech too (intra party) centrally. By his standards it wasn’t (IMHO) one of his best.
To contrast with DD’s (whose I thought was absolutely OK/average as per normal)which I thought was unspectacular but carefully pitched / safe/ neutral.
I can though fully understand the price movement based on some of the hyperbole and speculation and can’t start to argue with the new levels.
In terms of the 5 speeches, hand on heart, I thought that only DC overperformed expectations, that KC & DD were bang on expectation,
and that MR & LF were marginally off their game.
I think the critical indicator now is to see whether DD’s vote among MP’s hold firm.
This (speech making) was always going to be his toughest test and leave him open to criticism from other opinion formers - it’s their one big chance to damage him.
hold firm
119. Nick P. If you were working in an EU country, they probably thought the first one was the worst!
121. Agree with your analysis. Having done a hell of a lot of public speaking in my time I think the issue with some of the candidates is the fact that they knew how important the moment was. From experience that has a major effect on delivery. Sometimes you pull a ripper like Cameron most of the time you wilt like Davis…
57 Sorry Billy, simply disagree.
Even the (very pro Blair at the Sun) revelled in reporting it time after time.
William Hague remains the best orator and debater in the chamber by miles
121 - Andy - I’d agree with all of that - Good analysis.
122 Tory Boy. Thanks for that. The press in the morning will be universally awful for DD. Having seen the headlines and the reports he might want to get his bods to padlock newsagents nationwide in the morning !!
However I think you’re correct. This race has a long way to go and there will be many twists and turns ahead. Bill Cash might be leader yet
125. Absolutely…He still has the capacity to demolish with one withering punchline…
112 Totally agree with you Xenon - I’ve argued myself to a standstill on this point.
‘Outsiders’ (as well as some from within) simply don’t understand the depth and passion of matters European to a large tranche of our party.
Let’s hope we don’t have to find out the hard way !
127 - Why DO the press seem to hate Davis so much? Are they just letting their desire for the Tory leadership to become a nailbiter overwhelm their more balanced judgements, or is there something more?
Am I also the only one who is getting increasingly annoyed by the tendency for the press to try and use current events to draw direct analogies with those in the past - and use what happened then as a substitute for proper analysis of the situation now? (eg. Iraq/Vietnam/Suez; Adlai Stevenson/Colin Powell at the UN; Tory leadership 2005/1963; GE 1970/2005 etc. etc)
120. Jack, daaarling (oh God, I start to sound like Cherie), who are the members of the Tombstone Group? I couldn’t find a list online, don’t they have a webiste?
119. Nick Palmer, seriously, those situations are a bit sad if made at “high levels” (so not involving simply canvassers, but real politicians).
130 - I think it could be something to do with the fact that DD’s media management team is less than easy to get on with… Now that DD has done badly in his speech (well, it wasn’t great was it?), they’re lapping up every opportunity to stick the knife in. Coupled onto that the reaction on the conference tea break round and it starts to make sense.
Of course, that would all imply that the media are less than neutral occasionally. Huge shock horror!!!
130. From a press point of view its more fun to bludgeon the big guy…It sells more papers if you can have headlines like ‘Top Tory in embarrassing speech fiasco’ Even if such headlines bare no relation to reality….
I have to admit i am at a loss to understand what was going on in the Davis camp in the run up to this conference though. They should surely have anticipated the importance of the speeches and made a better attempt to prepare for it. As a few people have said, whilst he is never going to be brilliant, there were a few technical things in his public speaking which could have been cured very easily. One gets the impression (and this is reinforced by some of his comments afterwards) that it wasn’t really necessary because they had the MPs in the bag, and one speech will be irrelevant once the membership vote starts in a months time. The fact is that even if he recovers and eventually wins, the reporting of this conference will have done him a lot of damage.
Then again he has got Iain Dale in his campaign, who didn’t seem to be at all aware that he was about to concede a 5 figure majority in his own seat in the General Election
134. Not necessarily, the correct deployment of media management will limit the damage. Although this doesn’t seem to be working at the moment…Perhaps they are playing the longer game and will trump the story at the end of conference with a swathe of backers…
Ouch !
135.”Then again he has got Iain Dale in his campaign, who didn’t seem to be at all aware that he was about to concede a 5 figure majority in his own seat in the General Election”
These situations reiforce my doubts about canvassing returns.
136 xenon. No. DD’s camp have decided not announce new (in the bag) backers as this would appear “a panic measure” in light of todays proceedings.
105 - Or to oblivion , xenon , depending on who they choose
139 - Jack - What’s the reason then for Ken not annoucing any more of his? He still has four at least.
Newsflash - David Davis arrested after being caught in his hotel room pleasuring a chihuahua.
139. Perhaps..Depends how its done….At the end of the day he is almost certain to be in the final 2. He can pretty clearly set about wooing the old dears….
142 - I’m impressed. Always a difficult one to spell that.
144. It’s easier call them “that irritating little dogs”.
Was Ron Davies in the next room?
If he’s sensible (and these supposed ‘new backers’ are reliable) then he will hold them back completely. He’s going to need to get some more momentum going, and a better than expected performance among the MPs would be the way to do it. (with some well planted stories about how those who see him close up continue to be the most impressed by him… etc etc)
141 John T. It’s news management. The Tory leadership story for Thursday is DD’s piss poor performance, everything else will get crowded out. So hang fire.
147 - He needs to get Cormack, Greenway, Jack & McIntosh out soon. Even if he can’t get anyone else, he still needs to keep his momentum going.
147 - I would have thought today would have been a good time. Clarke can’t afford to let Cameron get away from him. Announcing some new backers today would have added to the “pressure on Davis” story with a useful slant that the pressure is coming from Ken. He needs lots more backers and doesn’t want to allow Cameron’s camp to portray him as ‘yesterday’s man’.
148. He needs to get some former Portillo supporters.
149 *especially if his ‘new’ backers are people who were expected to back him anyway!
150 - There aren’t that many left to declare - Edward Garnier & Robert Key both backed Clarke after the final round last time when the vote went to the members - so they might be Jack’s best hopes !
152. Without former Portillo supporters and the new intake seeming not to take him in consideration, where the hell will he get the votes?
He really needs Clare Short to defect to the tories, vote for him and go back to Labour!
153. Clarke has a problem that most of the 01 and 05 intakes are Eurosceptic so he hasn’t got a prayer of their support in the main….
153 - Given who is yet to declare it is not out of the question that Ken could be fourth.
154/155. I start to think Jack will be disappointed.
One thing to bear in mind is to ask the question about why Davis has ever got the amount of support he has got. I know Mike seems to put it all down to “bribery and bullying” but that it over the top. Undoubtedly there is a bit of the “back a winner early” phenomenom. However there is also the fact that Tory MPs are quite likely to be far more acquainted with the various candidates strengths and weaknesses than the rest of us. And most of their opinions are unlikely to have changed. If they thought Cameron was too inexperienced then nothing has changed. If they thought Ken wouldn’t be acceptable to the (Parliamentary) Party then possibly nothing have changed. They were probably less surprised that Cameron could perform as he did. So it’s one thing to suggest that whole swathes of MPs might jump ship from Davis. Quite another to work out to whom they will jump. (and on the basis of one speech which probably did not come as a huge surprise, even if it is slightly testing their nerve).
157. The thing is that DD will understand that the people in the Wintergardens make up about 1% of his potential electorate. The other 99% will make their minds up in the same way that they did in 2001. If they are active they will speak to their MP if they are not they will probably go for the most traditional candidate. So if it is DD vs anyone but Fox. The vote will be about 55% in DD’s favour at least IMHO…
157 - Alex agreed - see my post at 50. The big thing about MP’s who have declared for a candidate so far is that they will have had to explain to their members why one candidate was better than another etc. If they change their mind now over one speech, they are showing a weakness of their own views. I think the impact of conference will be on the undeclared MP’s and I think DC and LF will come out of conference in a stronger position.
I started with the idea that anyone would be acceptable except for Ken Clarke. After his disastrous speech, I am now of the opinion that David Davis would be hopeless as a leader, would be another IDS, and could not win a general election. The best candidate is probably David Cameron. I am scared of the authoritarian tendencies of this government, and we need a strong opposition with a viable leader.
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article317487.ece
According to the Indy, Davis lost 5 MPs to Ken. Clarke’s camp is worried by Cameron. They think he will be the main beneficiary of DD’s problems.
Fox got 3 new MPs ( Stephen Hammond, Stephen Crabb and Brooks Newmark)
Duncan is depressed by DD’s speech. One parliamentary research told him Fox is her favourite candidate and Dinky replied: “are you mad?”.
161 - I can’t get into the page. Does it name the MP’s defecting from Davis ?
162. No names. They quoted an anonymous source from Davis’ camp.
The link doesn’t work for me either