Davis still thinks he’s odds-on favourite
October 6th, 2005-
But why’s he talking about the betting at all
One of the things that really irritates me is when people tell porkies about betting odds in order to make a political point. Last year I had a go about the Lib Dems claiming to be “second favourite” in the London Mayoral race and now David Davis is saying on TV that he’s still “odds-on” to win the leadership contest. He made the statement in a BBC interview this morning and the story was the lead on the BBC’s website.
Looking at a video of the interview he was very firm about still being “odds-on” and the interviewer did not correct him.
Reviewing a full range of bookmakers this morning I could not find a single one that still had Davis odds-on. Right across the board, the conventional firms, the spread markets and the betting exchanges all have the odds against Davis Davis at greater than evens.
So why is Davis making a claim that it’s easy to establish is wrong? Why also, you might ask, should a potential party leader and Prime Minister feel the need to demean himself by talking about betting markets at all?
He could have easily dismissed the question by saying he was not going to talk about something as trivial as betting but about the future of his party and the country.
Meanwhile the best conventional bookie price on Davis is 6/5 with 1.54/1 available on Betfair. The best Cameron price is 6/4 with 1.78 being offered on Betfair.
At 2pm the latest IG binary spreads were:- Davis 37-45: Cameron 30-38: Clarke 16-22: Fox 3-7. With this if you put a £10 stake on Davis you would get 100-45 times your stake if he won (£550) and lose 45 times your stake if he lost (£450).
Mike Smithson
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‘Why also, you might ask, should a potential party leader and Prime Minister feel the need to demean himself by talking about betting markets at all?’
Talking about betting markets is demeaning now? What does this mean for the future of PB.com?
The interesting thing is how many newspaper stories on the leadership mention the betting odds as a key indicator of how things are going. Not necessarily unrelated to the existence of this site - is it my imagination, or have the betting markets become much more prominent in this leadership election than before?
‘Why also, you might ask, should a potential party leader and Prime Minister feel the need to demean himself by talking about betting markets at all?’
Because of the all important pb.com Tory electorate of course!
2 - it’s a substitute for proper analysis.
4 - what could be a better analysis than averages that show what thousands of interested people think will happen?
Very simple name me one MP attracted by the Charm and kindness of Derek Conway? All they had to offer most was fear, fear of retribution after the inevitable Davis victory. Once that aura of inevitability slips, Davis is the Emperor with no political clothes on. Hence the mantra, ” I am favourite etc.”
A politician exaggerating the truth for his own benefit? A tv interviewer who hasn’t done enough homework? Where will it end?
6.”Very simple name me one MP attracted by the Charm and kindness of Derek Conway?”
Alan Duncan is a personal friend of Derek Conway. When Hanky was still running, I remember an article about Conway telling him he won’t support his leadership bid and hoping their friendship won’t end.
It was all very soap operish!
5 - the betting odds are extremely useful. That is the point of the site after all! But they need analysis as well. For example Davis is still “favorite”. But he is not as much of a favorite as “not Davis”
8.I think if Alan Duncan is a friend of Derek Conway, he is a member of a very exclusive club indeed.
Can I just say a word in favour of Mr Conway? He tends to get his man - remember IDS, and who eventually brought him down (saving the Tories at least two dozen seats in the process). He’s also very entertaining, though I can imagine that if you’re a recalcitrant Tory MP and he’s your Whip, you might take a different view. But politics is a hard game, and for every Dr Tony Wright, or David Cameron, you need a Derek Conway.
“‘Why also, you might ask, should a potential party leader and Prime Minister feel the need to demean himself by talking about betting markets at all?’
Talking about betting markets is demeaning now? What does this mean for the future of PB.com?”
1 - Good that Mike realises this - the betting markets are of course very interesting and rightly get attention - but for Davis to put store in them publicly? If he wins the leadership, and a month before the next election the Tories are behind in the betting odds on winning party, is he going to concede that he thinks his party will lose? Of course he won’t - he’ll say that he ignores such things (just like politicians always claim to ignore polls!) and that he still believes they will win.
He is demeaning himself, no doubt about it.
When I was young I used to buy bikes from Conways bike shop in my home town - his family’s business. So he’s ok by me. I got a really good Raleigh pioneer there which was then stolen while I was conducting an election count at uni!
Surely Mr davis was describing himself as the odds-on favourite ie he is being backed by all the ‘odds’ - the same ‘odds’ who gave us Hague, Duncan(sic) Smith and Howard - sounds like a firm of crooked accountants doesn’t it.
My view is still that the Tories will choose a right wing leader with little or no hair of his own to speak of.
Yes the only problem is that Whips and bully boys in politics are better off when they operate in the shadows…Unlike Conway….
The prominence of political gambling just reinforces my regret at Mike having the idea for this site first…
Anyone got any idea of Dr.Fox’s current Betfair odds?
I can’t access the site from work!
Thanks in advance.
16. 12/1
Is it just possible he does not understand the term “odds on” My wife doesn’t translating it to “firm favourite” rather than mathematical correctness.
11.A good Leader is at least to start loved as well as feared. Beyond a tiny group of acolytes in the whips office bonded by the furnace of the Maastricht days, Davis has hardly any friends amongst his supporters. As Mr Trefgarne has said the “bullies” plural ie not just Conway around him give pause for thought. Every Leader needs a Conway, but he also needs more than him, and Davis doesn’t. Hence once his victory is no longer assured and the threats of dire consequences no longer have such force against MP’s, the wheels may come off rather quickly.
Latest IG binary spreads are:- Davis 37-45: Cameron 30-38: Clarke 16-22: Fox 3-7. With this if you put a £10 staker on Davis you would get 100-45 times your stake if he won amd lose 45 times your stake if he lost.
Hey, Mike, your site is becoming so influential that it surely only a matter of time before you can start rigging it in return for a nice backhander!
Don’t worry about it though, mate. Those of us who knew you when you were poor will still think well of you.
Cheers
P.
Davis’ form slightly reminds me of a stock market bubble where all the MPs bought into it simply because everyone else was buying into it. He now seems to be arguing that people shouldn’t sell now because everyone else isn’t selling - yet. It will be interesting to see whether it all tumbles down in the next few weeks. Davis could well still win but equally he could collapse completely.
Who else has read Hunter S Thompson’s “Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail” about the 1972 presidential election? There is a bit of a parallel with Thompson’s description of Ed Muskie going in as red hot favourite with everyone who was “important” backing him. But he collapsed very fast and very badly when the bubble burst and he was seen for what he was - a pretty second-rate sort of candidate.
18 - doesn’t understand, or is using it as a colloquical term for ‘favourite’. Rather similar to a football manager saying it’s ‘odds on’ that a particular player will regain lost form eventually.
22 - Maybe. Although the number of declared MPs shouldn’t be ignored. Remember in 2001 Portillo’s campaign floundered badly. There is one crucial difference between then and now though. Portillo never had enough declared supporters to get through to the final. And yet even though his campaign clearly stalled he never got fewer votes than he had declared.
But unless the 64 MPs on his web site are really nasty and in the secrecy of the ballot dont vote for him, DD must get at least 80 votes - I cannot believe there are no non declarers who will vote for him - and therefore he gets in to the “which Washing Powder do you prefer” part of the process.
But his odds must shorten if he gets into the last 2 - so do punters think he wont?
25 - I think the odds are currently distorted by the bubble surrounding Cameron. He’s surely way too short. He’s played his trump card if you like. Difficult to see how he’s going to improve on that in coming weeks, and he hasn’t got a good portfolio from which to shine in parliament (unlike Davis).
These are indeed heady days for PB.com
Mr Smithson now has as much influence on the future of the Tory party as Mr Murdoch does on the future of NuLab. Awesome !
22 – James
Yeah “Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail” is amongst my favourite books, the story of Muskie could as well have applied to Howard Dean last year, who also had all the ‘right people’ backing him and then lost in spectacular fashion… indeed it could apply to many losers who where prematurely crowned as ‘inevitable’.
From my own lowly perch I will say that, my stanch on Clark remains that he is overrated, the same goes for Fox I still think he’s clever and will surprise people (unfortunately)… while Davis and his team have shown some potentially rehabilitating weaknesses all at the same time that Cameron has really risen to the occasion and performed exemplarily…
“that said” my endorsement for any one of them would clearly be the kiss of death
Alex, I do agree with you. I actually think Cameron will probably come last in the members ballot. Davis will still get 75 or so, if Fox gets the cornerstone group en masse he will get around 45-50. This leaves only around 75 or so left for Clarke and Cameron, and so far there is no evidence that Cameron has more than Clarke. If Rifkind comes down on Clarke’s side Cameron won’t get more than about 35. So if Cornerstone go for Fox and Rifkind for Clarke it is tough to see Cameron getting through. Of course, if he edges Clarke he will be in a reasonably strong position (as Clarke’s supporters will come in behind him), but it is a bigger if than the current odds suggest.
29. So you’re predicting a Fox-Davis runoff?
Don’t forget the MP’s ballots will run through 3 rounds to get to the final 2. DD may well start with a lot less than expected (while Fox gets more than expected) and go downhill from there. I think Fox is also a good bet you know. Although I hope it’s Cameron.
Well, well, well - my first ever party conference is over and it was quite simply brilliant. I am not sure I can ever better the intrigue and the debate and I have come out optimistic that my party is finally waking up to the fact we must work as a team to win power.
I have met some good people, including two from this website - both were great guys.
I went in to the conference not fully decided on the leadership but with an idea in my head who I thought had the best chance for our party. I leave the conference still undecided, but heartened that unlike the Lib Dems and perhaps even Labour post-Blair - we actually have the most talented potential cabinet in the country.
I will make my final decision when I see which two the MPs give us. The man who I thought about before going remains high on my list, but a couple of other candidates really stepped up the plate and have given me serious food for thought.
But I have to be wary and I think we all do. Us at the conference were in a little political bubble, those on this site are in another political website bubble. The general public look at things differently and I want to speak to people outside party politics for their views. In the end speeches are not and should not be the bee all and end all - you need a package. After all I thought Rifkind won the award for the best speech of the week (perhaps tieing with Hague) and it will not help him much.
What I have found though is that many people were honestly willing to listen and analyse all the candidates. Mopping up the stickers and water which made the whole event reminiscent of a university election!
I think this could be a useful way of choosing our leader in the future. The activists in a primary style event, meet and chose some candidates and the MPs then chose between them.
But alas, as I go and rest I am really heartened, I have come out of conference feeling as though we might finally be turning a corner. The task is now to keep this up and the MPs must give me a choice of two excellent candidates, which forces us all to debate the future of our great party.
28 – Seem to have lost the ability to spell and punctuate, should repost this one…
From my own lowly perch I will say that, my stance on Clark remains that he is overrated, the same goes for Fox I still rate him as clever and think he’ll surprise people (unfortunately, for the country and the Tory Party if you ask me)… while Davis and his team have shown some potentially dehabilitating weaknesses all at the same time that Cameron has really risen to the occasion and performed exemplarily…
In the end the conference has probably secured Clark’s position more than anything, undermined Davis to the advantage of Fox and Cameron and allowed Cameron to really kick-start his campaign once more… still remains to be seen if Davis has more to convince people than his “inevitability” and weather Clark has more to offer than his “charisma”… the most interesting contest could always be Cameron vs Fox, who would have seen that coming
30. No, I am making a more subtle point about the odds. I think it could still be Davis against any one of the other three. My point is the odds are now pointing to a Davis Cameron run off and I think this is still no more likely than Davis Clarke. I would suggest that a Davis Fox run off is the least likely because I now think that if Cameron is knocked out in the first round far more of his supporters will switch to Clarke than would have done prior to the Davis conference speech, and if Clarke is knocked out almost all his supporters will opt for Cameron.
30 Anon. I think the prospect of Fox reaching the final ballot are practically zero. DD will still make the final two with either our Ken or DC having more than enough transferable votes from each other and the Rifkind vote to see off Fox.
34 - do you really think all Clarke’s backers would go over to Cameron? - they may both have the shared characteristic of being “media friendly”, but they are at two extremes of the same spectrum. And many Clarke backers are likely to put a premium on experience.
36 - or is your reasoning that Clarke/Cameron vote will be interchangeable for tactical reasons - ie. to keep out Fox?
David Cameron is the new favourite at 11/10 with William Hill
36/37 alex. Are you talking to yourself again - that’s normally my trick
This site needs an edit facility, Jack
Fox’s speech was rated the worst by the BBC perception panel (the public who responded to each speech as it happened by telephone - the sample was substantial). I hope everyone will communicate this fact to Tory MPs!
Interstingly Davis’ speech was rated third.
For the record the overall ranking was:
1. Clarke
2. Cameron
3. Davis
4. Rifkind
5. Fox
35 - Can you see Sir Patrick Cormack or Sir Peter Tapsell backing Cameron, for example?
26. It’s easy to shine against Ruth Kelly and Davis’ portfolio could give him occasions to do anotehr bad performance.
32. Glad you had a good time at the conference. Now let’s start the gossip
42. Or Widdy?
43 - Of course it could, but it wouldn’t exactly be going with past form. More to the point, the Shadow Home Secretary will always be in demand for media interviews. The Shadow Education Sec. won’t (outside exam season). And media interviews aren’t setpiece conference speeches…
I am just sure that the MPs will stitch it up to make sure Clark does not get into the last 2, especially after the comments of Stuart Wheeler et al. I bet Davis’ promised votes do not all materialise, as people decide they have been had, but he may be kept in the running to exclude Clark (unless Fox takes on that role). Nice to see James’ M’s high hopes, but I bet his own MPs will bring them crashing down by giving the activists as little real choice as possible when it comes down to it.
Did anyone else think that DD’s wet T-shirt girls were the worst possible way to woo the Tory voluntary party?
Out of interest does anyone think we will get any new candidates joining the field now? Thinking of May and Leigh I suppose. Surely no-one will want to because they’ve missed the chance to have a speech at conference and be involved in the publicity-fest that it has been.
47 - if Leigh joins it won’t be because he can win. It will be to get on the voting record the size of his group, a marker that they can’t be ignored in the future.
45.”More to the point, the Shadow Home Secretary will always be in demand for media interviews. The Shadow Education Sec. won’t (outside exam season). ”
Leaderships candidates are always in demands, especially if nothing exiciting will happen in October/November.
David Davis is Ian Duncan Smith with hair.
49 - are you being deliberately contrary today, Andrea?
37. Not all followers will move in line but broadly speaking, yes. The Cameron and Clarke backers would be a little horrified at a Davis/Fox final. In their view the membership would be forced to choose between the charisma bypass candidate and the political judgement bypass candidate! If you put all the candidates on a political spectrum from Left to Right they would come out Clarke/Cameron/Davis/Fox, and whilst there are many judgements other than political positioning this must count for something.
42 alex. The fact is that there are no absolute voting blocks in the Conservative party. Even members of the Tombstone group will split, although Fox will be the main beneficiary. To emphasis the point I expect 2 of the group to support our Ken !! And note that DD has also picked up some on the left of the Tories.
In the end, and after the buzz of the conference, most Tory MPs will look hard at the real contest ahead - against Prime Minister Brown - and the prospect of another defeat, swallow hard and put our Ken in the final ballot against DD ….. and then the race does begin !!
Must admit have enjoyed watching the whole circus this week (mainly from my hotel room in Manchester!!). Thought the pathetic “I’m Heineken”, “I’m Coca-Cola” at the start was foolish. Still unconvinced any of the five (four, really, I guess) will be a genuine threat to Brown…..
I’ve found the comments of ANON very revealing. He/she sounds like a Tory MP or someone very close and you get the feeling that the DD team “charm offensive” is going to find it harder strong-arming all of those who have come out to actually put their crosses on the ballot paper.
If the favourable Cameron press continues then increaasingly local party members will be passing their views to their MPs and that might swing a few.
Hopefully there will be new polls over the weekend of Tory members which might make the position clearer.
35. Ken is not worried then either by A) Murdoch’s hostility or B)Tactical vote plotting against him? You really think he can see off Cameron, he needs some 2001/2005 intake on board surely?
The sheer scale of the abuse heaped on DD from all sides since yesterday appears to prove that his “support” was more about fear of consequences of not backing him than genuine backing. Even nominal Davis backers have started publicly sliding and do feel he may not even make the final two. Fox v Cameron? What fun that would be!
I also think that Davis supporters would rather face either Clarke or Fox than Cameron, so if Davis has any spare support, and he may well still have, he will do his best to make sure it isn’t Cameron.
46 - What wet T-shirt girls? Honestly I leave the country for a few days and miss the greatest Conservative conference ever. Must be Stringfellow’s influence.
Not impressed with Barcelona - mind you not much compares when you’ve been brought up in Peeblesshire!
51. No, Alex. Why do you have this impression? It’s our first disagreement today!
59. Max, I think it’s a reference to these photos:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/1288/553/1600/dd.jpg
Look the thing is the contest isn’t over to the end of November when all the postal votes have to be on their way to the count…There is plenty of time for Ken to open his mouth on Europe, Cameron to betray his youth, Davis to dig a deeper hole, Fox to make some absurd neo-con suggestion and Malcolm Rifkind to do something mildly interesting…So the race is far from over…..
56 Anon. Our Ken is rarely worried by anything other than a well stocked cigar case, the quality of the ale at the pub and a bum jazz note at Ronnie Scotts.
I think there will be much less tactical voting this time as DD’s voting surplus vanishes up his political oratorio, plus the scale and reality of the task ahead that faces the party dawns.
56. Ken does need some support from the new intake but Cameron needs a little more from the old MPs (I think he has 4) who make up almost three quarters of the parliamentary party, which is why I think his price has moved a little too far too fast.
62. Could party members vote “non of them”?
I’m surprised Rifkind is standing now. It’s clear he CAN’T get to the final ballot and any sane leader will have him in a senior role anyway.
66 - I think Rifkind standing performs a useful purpose. It enables the true levels of support to be established without any of the main candidates being knocked out by MPs backing the wrong anti-Davis/Clarke/Fox horse.
Any chance of a Fox supporter explaining how he will lead the Tories back to a brighter future? Or march them straight to oblivion?
Also have to think about potential shadow cabinets. Who would be dumped by whom etc? Nothing stirs the loins like Tory blood-lust!
67 (con). Imagine if Davis comes in far below expectations in the first round. Some of his supporters may suddenly realise that they want to go elsewhere… but their natural “other” candidate may have already been knocked out. This is not a problem if Sir Malcolm stands in the first round.
65 Andrea. Bill Cash - The (very) right-in candidate
66 David. Mal has until next Thursday to pull out and I fully expect him to do so !
66. Rifkind has to go into the First round, the problem is that he didn’t work out earlier what most people could tell from fairly early on which is that he doesn’t have the support… He now faces the prospect of being humiliated….I get the feeling that he will be given a job by any leader, Party Chairman perhaps?
66. If Rifkind’s candidacy last another ten days I will eat my hat. He got the kudos of a Leadership speech at conference, and it’s little less embarrassing to bow out gracefully after it rather than before it.
69. Maude will probably be dumped by all of them…..They have to keep the dears on side…
I asusme Rifkind is still in the race as a ‘blocker’ to make sure that either Clarke or Cameron are not knocked out first and give the centre/centre left more wiggle room.
I think the most interesting question now is whether if Cameron endorses Clarke he will take the rest of his friends with him. The press conference won’t look half as good without Osbourne, Letwin, Gove et al sat around him.
I t
Yes and he did his career no harm with what was a really solid speech. I expect him to get Party Chair at the very least.
74 But would there be a place for Clarke if Fox wins? Where does Davis stand if it’s Cameron?
DD seems to have a sort of reverse “Teflon-quality” which attracts dirt. Rumours about dark secrets, hair pieces, bullying, etc. A stunt with two attractive girls goes badly wrong. Then he delivers an unspectactular speech and his campaign implodes, even the Torygraph slags him off!
72/73 Anon/xenon. Of course with Mal out there will only be 2 ballots ….. unless there’s a dead heat
75 - You put it somewhat better than me, Preg
It will likely be clear after the first round which of Cameron and Clarke can go all the way. At that point (and not before) deals can be done.
I think a press conference with Letwin, Cameron, Osborne, Clarke and Rifkind together would be very hard for the party to ignore. Whether endorsing Clarke or Cameron
**crosses fingers**
79 What happens if it’s a three-way tie in the final MP round? Do all three go through? Or a re-vote?
What happens if there is a dead heat in the MP voting?
79 - do you think the 1922 committee have worked out, in advance this time, what they’re going to do if there’s a dead heat?
28 - Dean lost out for slightly different reasons to Muskie, possibly. He created a real buzz but in the end was too edgy and not mainstream enough and people got cold feet. With Muskie he was too mainstream in many ways and voters in the primaries just didn’t get enthused about him. Other frontrunners have of course also fallen away, although some like Gary Hart for, ahem, different reasons.
I think that was really my comparison with Muskie. Davis has trying to be textbook Tory mainstream (yes on the right but not trying to outflank Fox) and to pile up endorsements but in the end people are starting to conclude he is just a bit second-rate.
Although the whole US primaries comparison is a bit tenuous because it is a very different system with a different electorate.
82, 83, 84 - great minds think alike!
Clarke is not going to endorse anyone but himself, if as seems likely he doesn’t make the ballot of members he will skulk off never to take part in a leadership election again…
75. Letwin should be no problem for Cameron if he wanted to bring him into the Clarke Camp. Osborne maybe somewhat trickier, and Gove Murdoch’s personal neo con rep in the Tory Party maybe next to impossible to shift, except in the unlikely event of Clarke’s momentum becoming absolutely unstoppable after this.
77 - I am pretty sure Clarke won’t bother doing anything unless he is leader anyway (and perhaps not even then).
83 - I think the rule is that they both drop out unless it is down to the final 3 in which case they all go through to the members’ ballot.
81 - Letwin backed IDS over Clarke last time when the vote went to the membership, so I doubt it.
All this is making me a bit depressed.
I remember getting drunk around Westminster when the Tories were in the midst of executing IDS, towards the end of the evening I suddenly thought to myself: Why am I celebrating this is the sanest thing they have done for donkeys years (I’m Labour meself).
Despite the geek in me being riveted by the twists, turns and bluffs of this contest I am beginning to suspect the Tories will again make a sensible, shrewd decision. Not so good for the rest of us.
82/83/84 laptop/dave/alex. Are you suggesting that a party that hopes to run the country hasn’t worked out a dead heat contingency
…… there’s a run off … not literaly, for our Ken’s sake !!
91. Glad to see you think the Conservatives will make a sensible decision….
92 Had assumed there is a contingency plan (although you never know!) but wondered what it was
92. Vaguely knowing Mr Spicer who as Chairman of the ‘22 will be running the show. He is a shrewd operator who will have a contingency which he won’t discuss, but just implement if it comes to it….
91 But what is the “sensible, shrewd” decision. I would say Cameron, but I would then be accused of bias. As we were told yesterday, non-Tories don’t have the right to tell Tories who they should have as leader!
Well to be honest anyone other than Fox could be a seinsible(ish) decision since even DD realises he need to appeal in some way to the other branches of the party.
90. Last time the membership voted for anyone but Ken. This time they are prepared to vote for him. Like an alcoholic hitting rock bottom before they accept something, the IDS experience was so terrible it is seared into a kind of collective consciousness. Letwin has repeatedly in interviews declined the interviewers invitations to lay into Ken and remained scrupulously polite about him. You maybe surprised about him. It’s Gove who is the most unlikeliest to back Ken.
97. I would agree but add Clarke to that mix putting a person at odds with a large swathe of the party would be electoral suicide. This leaves Cameron and Davis (Rifkind is a makeweight). This is an interesting position an arch-moderniser versus a moderniser with reservations….
Seems to me that Clarke with Cameron as a deputy is a bit of a no-brainer and the events of conference have made it much more likely (by making it easier for Cameron and his supporters to go to Ken on the basis that DD is just not up to it, without making them eternal traitors in the eyes of the right of the party).
100. Not going to happen..Cameron is too strong on his own and his support would not transfer en bloc.
96. The sensible decision is the one Labour most fears: Clarke w/ Cameron as his long-term successor. I think the Tory membership is now coming round to this point of view.
101. If he gets knocked out, it could. Only Gove and one or two others whom the neo con religion is all important would be likely to prove impossible to shift, particularly if Ken offered further concessions such as ” I will never ever ever ever attempt to take Britain into the Euro should I become PM……”
103. Euroscepticism is more than the currency it ranges over the whole gamut of policy areas. Firstly Labour would bring Europe up every week between now and the election. If Ken said anything even mildly pro-europe Bill Cash et al would be on him like a ton of bricks…Plus and this is the killer the public will never buy a eurosceptic party being led by a europhile. It would look dishonest because it is….
101 - Maybe, I’m just an outsider looking in, it seems too early for Cameron and his friends now, but perhaps others will come to a different conclusion.
One of the basic tricks of Tories everywhere is to put some motion to the local council asking the Town hall display the union flag from every window or something silly and then when Labour/Libs vote it down to run to the local paper saying Labour/Libs hate this country are out of touch etc…
It amuses me no end that Liam Fox has made this the basis for his leadership bid.
105. He needed to give his campaign a shot in the arm, adn the easiest way was to grab the Tory faithful by the erogenous zone and give it a good massage….This succeeds in raising his candidate profile whilst demolishing his ability to be a successful leader…
104. They bought Blair’s Tory leading in the Labour Party act. They hated Blair’s europhilia but voted for him three times. Why? Because as the Tories found out the public believed and still do that these issues were corralled into referendums and therefore nothing to do with domestic policies.
Whenever the Tories raised it the deadly answer was Typical Tories that’s all you care about. Brown couldn’t afford to raise it every week without the public thinking he was the one now obssessed about a single issue, especially once Ken lays into him over public services.
104. But one of the things Clarke has been banging on about is the need for collegiate decision making and cabinet responsibility. Surely this means that he is accepting that his pro-Europe views would never win through in a shadow cabinet that would inevitibly be packed with Eurosceptics.
That said, having just got back from Blackpool, I’m not sure he’ll make it through to the final two anyway. The momentum behind Cameron was pretty strong.
107. Maybe but for me the danger is too great…
100 - What about Cameron with Clarke as he deputy? It would be a BIT like Blair and Prescott.
95 - Spicer is my local MP - about as shrewd as Sven-Goran Eriksson!! Yes, Crouch is a “footballer”. Speak to anyone in the local party in confidence and they’ll be soon disputing his ability (knighthood - for what exactly?) as well as his character. My only witness to the latter is that I’ve been to many dos on the Worcestershire Christmas drinks scene when he’s been there and it’s noticeable that “the Spicers” are always getting ignored. I think it’s partly cos he takes the local charity tennis tournaments so seriously and pisses everyone off in the process.
Anon is definitely not a Tory MP.
1. Cameron will NOT come last
2. His supporteers are more likely to vote Davis than Clarke if he did.
3. Almost the whole of the 70+ 2001 and 2005 intake(plus many of the 1997 intake) are viscerally hostile to Ken Clarke and will vote for ANYONE to beat him.
108 David H. I think we all have to remember that a sizable proportion (especially in the case of Nicholas Soames) can’t bear going to the party conferenc. I doubt if much more than half pitched up.
The next few days will see newspaper endorsements, more declared backers and some opinion polls over the weekend. I think by Tuesday all the smoke and mirrors of the conference will disperse and we’ll have a better grasp of the thrust and direction of the contest.
113. Agreed, but if we think the twists and turns of this contest are over, I would simply echo the best speaker at conference and say ‘Not Yet!’
It seems to me as if Cameron’s people desperately want to work with Clarke but are worried that if Davies wins it would rebound badly on them.
The Tory conference seemed to me to be dominated by a combined backroom attempt to get at Davies and to enable a Cameron-Clarke ticket to emerge. The Cameron people certainly have the best contacts in the media - and that was the hymm sheet they were singing off.
Clarke looks perfect to Cameron - he’s old, he has no younger proteges of his own, he can get them into power, they can inherit the party from him after he does the hard job of facing down the right.
The third reason is the most important.
The only reason they wouldn’t throw in with him is if they thought he would lose and that would wreck their long-term plan of taking over the party.
105 - I love your post and agree entirely. I couldn’t believe it when Fox started the whole “political correctness gone mad” guff in his speech, it was a parody of conservatism!
115. Cameron is ambitious why would he want to wait any number of years…
117 xenon. Hague !!
Did Liam Fox not propose flying the Union Flag from every school as well? For a Roman Catholic from the West of Scotland I’m surprised he thinks this wouldn’t be hugely controversial in a number of Glasgow schools not to mention how Angus Council would feel about it.
I own my own Union Flag (with HEARTS emblazoned on it of course) but I don’t see why it should be imposed on people who don’t love it as much as me.
119 Max. Especially if you support Hibs
91 - You can console yourself that maybe there isn’t a sensible option available to the tories. The reason there seems to be such an open contest is that all of the main choices have the potential for going badly wrong:
Cameron - Inexperienced and unknown. May be a big success but may be a second IDS or Hague. A big gamble. May find it very difficult appealing to ordinary people or even ordinary tories.
Clarke - Might lead to splits and a revival of UKIP. Might find himself at odds with his shadow cabinet over not just Europe but also Iraq. Another leader ejected mid term?
Davis - He seems to have a lot of enemies in the party, or at least people who delight in dropping dark hints about him. Could this blow up some time in future? Will he have a John Major moment about the b*****ds in his own party?
Fox - A third scots leader for the major parties? Dour and, if he advocates spending cuts will be easily lampooned as a mean scot. If he keeps going on about flying flags and getting closer to the USA nobody will take him seriously.
I cannot see Clarke as second fiddle to anyone. He is 65 and wouldnt get a Cabinet post if they won so surely he will stay at Unichem (about to merge with Boots) as deputy chair and BAT plus other pension enhancing schemes
117 - Blair was ambitious but he knew it was ridiculous to go too early in 1992. Whether Brown should have done so is another matter…
120 - Jack, I think they’d be more offended if the City Council insists on the Lithuanian Flag been flown from every council building!
Still firmly behind KC, he might not be around for long but it would give Cameron or Osbourne the time needed to develop as leaders. I would fear for either if they were pitched in too soon.
Anyway off to catch my flight now can’t wait to get back in to Edinburgh tonight!
Good to be back at home. Blackpool is such a dreary place!
WRT Rifkind, I think alex and pregethwr are correct in that it is useful for him to stay on through the first ballot of MPs as a sort of insurance policy against either of the main two candidates from the moderate wing the of the party (Cameron and Clarke) being knocked out in the first ballot. I believe he will do just that and will in turn be the first to go off, probably moving to back Clarke at that point.
Does anyone have a further update on any movement of MPs? Names please, if you’ve got em!
125 - AHM, how did you think Cameron went down with the members. Like yourself I would happily back either when it comes down to the membership vote.
126 - I think Cameron did himself the world of good. His speech was extremely good and well delivered and he was quick on his feet, thoughtful and eloquent at the policy discussions I attended. He was out of it before the conference, but his performance this week has put him back into contention in a big way. KC met expectations and Davis merely confirmed all the doubts I had about him previously. I like Fox but we’ve been down that particular path now under our last three leaders and it hasn’t got us very far, so I rule him out. I still expect Davis to make the final and will support either Cameron or Clarke, depending which it is who faces him.
127. Cameron has come out of this with huge benefits, but I think the person who impressed me most of the newer clique was Osborne…As he is in with Cameron then we may have the most formidable political double act in history….
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/toryleadership/2005/10/questioning_dav.html
78 Jon Gale “A stunt with two attractive girls goes badly wrong. ”
Are the girls in the photo half way down this page the ones you are on about? In which case at the risk of being really unkind they really aren’t as you describe (attractive that is)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4303994.stm
130 - I’m not sure it was their faces that secured their jobs…
shudder!
But those are brunettes. Guido’s blog has a blonde.
Tried to post re DD T-Shirt, but suspect filter ate it. See Guido’s blog for pic.
133. See post 61.
I’m upset that there weren’t shirtless boys in pink hot pants too!
“I’m upset that there weren’t shirtless boys in pink hot pants too!”
There’s still time for Alan Duncan to reverse his decision….
135- AD already posed for a charity calendar waering only a Christmas hat, a pair of boots and a Thatcher’s photo…..so it sholdn’t be a problem.
Now thinking about DD supporters, I just had the disturbing image of Ian Dale and Michael Brown in pink hot pants! Observer, I could sue you for serious damages.
Cue Hague’s reverse “joke”…
The DD thing is a kind of pun, so you’d need something like that for the shirtless boys in pink hot pants. Which candidate are they supporting?
127/128 - Cameron was earnestly, evangelically passionate… he’s clearly the coming man. But let’s not go overboard. DC’s line - “Let’s dream a new generation of Conservative dreams” - was a little, erm, vapid (I thought). If DD had said it, folks would have laughed him out of the conference hall.
It intrigues me how the Tories are always keen to take a gamble on an unknown: Major, Hague, IDS, Cameron(?). In each case, the party made a mistake. Perhaps DC will prove me and other doubters wrong… So far, his record is masterminding the Tories’ reponse to the Hutton report, and the election manifesto. Hmmm…
FWIW, I am sure Blair would have been an immeasurably better Prime Minister if he’d been more experienced when he got the job.
136 - DD could unite social liberals and Cornerstoners under such a photo-op: “We endorse gay rights, but only if they’re ugly”.
Possibly O/T, but even so, worth a look - and not only for Conservatives
http://www.philosophersnet.com/magazine/article.php?id=962
Oliver Letwin’s dark secret
137. AT. I give you the task to create a slogan for shirtless boys in pink hot pants supporting Dr Fox.
Some Observations:
Rifkind: Will stay in the race as an insurance policy for the one nation candidates. His speech has ensured him a major job under whoever is leader. He may well be the next Shadow Chancellor as Hague for financial reasons might prefer to be Shadow Foreign Secretary.
Cameron: Very good and very impressive. Personally I back him. However he needs to try and get up to over 30 MP’s publicly declared for him as many will still have doubts as to his parliamentary backing. Also will have to adapt to some fast bowling over his views on drugs and licensing laws. He may need to tack to the right as well where there are still non tombstone MP’s undecided.
Clarke: His speech was good though not great. He has a strange speaking style, which passes over a strong hint of arrogance. He sounds like the fat city gent that he is. However he has certainly enhanced his prospects with his speech. Key issue for Clarke over the next few weeks are his policy prescriptions especially on Europe where he is likely to face more pressure to toe into the party’s eurosceptic line. KC has the advantage of knowing that he should pick up Rifkind and that many MP’s will back him in the secrecy of the polling booth leaving their constituency parties known the wiser as to their choice.
Davis: His speech was poor and in general he had a poor week. He seemed to react badly to being questioned on TV with hesitation and garbled messages coming to the fore. Seems to have the numbers but some will surely peel away in the polling booths and it seems unlikely that he will not get any more MP endorsements. He could end up in a Portillo like position. To be guaranteed passage through he needs Fox to fall at the second hurdle. Seeing as this is likely to happen he should be safe. He therefore has the time to recover from his woes in Blackpool.
Fox: Had a reasonable week in Blackpool. May have misjudged his speech though in going too far to the right. He does seem however to have enhanced his image as an attractive candidate in terms of his abilities if not his views. For Fox to have a chance though he needs to bring in the tombstone MP’s and more from the right. However where he too go to far to the right he could suffer tactical voting from the other camps eager to ensure no repeat of Hague (who ran a very rightwing campaign in 2001).
The Rest: Maude will go whoever takes over. He may have been a good government minister but he has adapted poorly to opposition. His speech was dreadful and frankly insulting to Tory members. His leadership reforms were useless and he lacks good communicative skills. May also struggled but will still be in any future shadow cabinet. Hague now looks likely to come back probably as shadow foreign secretary. As for IDS do not rule out a surprise return from him either.
141 Andrea - I haven’t the skill! (Anyone else want a go?) Perhaps the Scissor Sisters could write a song for him though.
143. I knew it was a hard task. If you had succeeded, you could have been hired as DD speechwriters.
I’m sure Jack could produce a slogan though.
142 - interesting observations Andrew. A couple of comments:
Shouldn’t Rifkind just bow out and back one of the supposed one-nation candidates? In a close race for second, his trivial handful of supporters could hand momentum to Fox who could yet make a run-off against Davis.
Speaking of Fox, would tactical voting be entirely against him? In the final round of MPs’ voting, it is the frontrunner’s voters who have room to vote tactically (the rest just vote for their favourite). If the frontrunner remains Davis, would he not fancy his chances more in a run-off against Fox (against who he could appear the moderate choice) rather than against Clarke or Cameron?
142.”His speech was dreadful and frankly insulting to Tory members. His leadership reforms were useless and he lacks good communicative skills. May also struggled but will still be in any future shadow cabinet”
The two speeches I liked the most are the ones generally disliked by tory posters here.
Thinking well, it made sense.
145. Wouldn’t Rifkind’s supporters back a “one nation” candidate after Sir Malcolm will be eliminated anyway?
Just out of interest, why do people feel so strongly that having a leader with an opinion on one policy that is at odds with the majority of his party is electoral suicide? After all, we have had a Prime Minister now who for ten years has held dear a whole raft of policies, even before Iraq, which were abhorred by the majority of his party. However if the personality gets public support and wins people over, the party will remain silent. Unless, of course, you are arguing that the Tory grassroots are more idealistic/lunatic even than their left-wing counterparts.
I will certainly support Clarke, although after this week I am happy (finally) to see Cameron as someone who perhaps does have enough gravitas to be a leader. Davis in my opinion simply will not be able to deal with PMQs and other public engagements with the necessary charisma. Fox brings nothing new to the table, despite his claims of wanting to be radical. Rifkind, my favourite before the general election, has sadly drifted out of contention but should certainly serve as a shadow and eventually government minister. My ideal team therefore: Clarke to lead, Cameron as Deputy Leader and something else, Rifkind at Foreign, Osbourne to continue at as Chancellor, Davis to continue at Home. But that’s just fantasy of course …
Lol - did you just see the ITV news? Alan Duncan described as a “former David Davis supporter”. Do the news media ever stop embellishing their stories?
148 Bloody media, eh! Such terrible people. Wouldn’t trust any of them myself!
148. This description is not entirely wrong (I’m not deliberately contrary)
144 Andrea. Fox Gay slogan :
“Pierce your nipples and expectations when you hunt with the Fox”
BTW Apologies if it’s already been mentioned but Peter Snow has announced he will retire himself and his swingometer and will not front another GE.
“I’m upset that there weren’t shirtless boys in pink hot pants too!”
-a slogan for shirtless boys in pink hot pants supporting Dr Fox.
A slogan? well for DC perhaps Camp it up for Cameron?
But obviously for the saturnine doctor it should be “Fancy a Fox?”
“It intrigues me how the Tories are always keen to take a gamble on an unknown”
Again and again, that is the case. Think how many Tory leaders have emerged/won unexpectedly. Bonar Law, in place of either Austen Chamberlin or Walter Long in 1911; Baldwin in place of either Austen Chamberlin or Lord Curzon in 1922; Churchill in place of Lord Halifax in 1940; Home in place of either Butler or Hogg in 1963; Heath in place of Maudling in 1965; Thatcher in place of either Heath or Whitelaw in 1975.
FWIW, I see David Davis as being the safe pair of hands in this election. He’s not that inspiring, but I’d expect him to be competent as a leader. Taking a gamble with any of Fox, Cameron or Clarke could either be a brilliant success, as it often has been in the Conservatives’ history, or a dreadful failure, and there are obvious precedents for that too.
The Tories always elect choose “anti-X” candidate. And the perfect “anti-X” candidate is one with no known negatives in his/her past.
151/152. I would take James O’s slogan for Cameron and Jack’s one for Fox.
The pink shirts women could be the reason Dinky switched and the absence of boys in hot pants is probably cuased by the conference being in Blackpoll and not Brighton (today I read my local newspaper and apparently last week’s main news of the area is that a man came out and run away to Brighton!)
Someone asked for up-to-date mp’s by name, and who they are supporting.
FWIW, in tonight’s Cambridge Evening News, there are 6 local tory mps. 4 give reasons why they are still backing DD (Richard Spring, Jim Paice, Malcolm Moss and Jonathon Djanogly) and Oliver Heald is with LF leaving Andrew Lansley is ‘undecided’. Its hard to know how ’soft’ is DD’s support.
Whereas it’s almost always easy to predict the result of a Labour leadership contest (the only exception I can think of was Michael Foot winning in 1981).
What was certainly true is that Cameron ran a slick operation - but we must remember 300,000 members were not at conference. Furthermore I think he was helped by a sympathetic media, waiting nay hoping for DD to stumble.
My concerns on DC are multiple (although I think he had a superb week and is a very strong candidate)
- What does he actually mean by modernisation?
- Does he actually believe in conservative policies like lower taxes?
- How will he go down in the northern seats, I help out where we need the votes. I am not sure how we could sell DC to the people of Burnley, Pendle, Hynburn etc.
I would be interested in the views of open DC supporters.
Surely…For Fox’ sake