The man who sparked off the rush to Cameron
October 8th, 2005-
Did Newsnight’s survey finish off the other contenders?
We agree with Andrew Grice in the Independent this morning, that the most important Tory leadership factor this week was not anything that happened in the conference hall, but a feature on Newsnight showing the leading US pollster, Frank Luntz, conducting a focus group.
If you have not seen this yet then this is must and you can still download a video from the the programme’s website. It’s the most compelling and influential piece of political television in a long time and had a huge impact on the leadership betting markets.
Those being surveyed watched videos of the five contenders with meters in their hand where they could react instantly to what they were seeing on the screen.
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What was being presented suggests that Cameron appears to resonate with people of all ages and political persuasions in a way that no other UK politician has done since the emergence of Tony Blair.
If the young ex-Etonian does make it to the final membership ballot then there can be little doubt that he will win easily.
His challenge, and the reason why his betting price is only about evens, is that he still has to convince enough of his fellow MPs to give him their votes so he makes the final. It is here that being young and so relatively inexperienced could be crucial.
This weekend Tory MPs will be back in their constituencies and the messages that they get from party members and activists might be a deciding factor and, no doubt they will be influenced by how the papers are reporting the race.
A good example of today’s “over-the-top” coverage is by the Telegraph columnist, Vicki Woods, who started backing David Cameron after reading Politicalbetting. Her feature today is under the heading - Politics is like sex - so pick David Cameron.
My betting. I’m still nervous about going wholeheartedly for Cameron and my biggest punts have been laying (betting against) David Davis. Those MPs who have signed up in public for the Shadow Home Secretary are going to find it hard making a switch. This could still keep Cameron off the final ballot.
Tory Leadership Spread Prices
Spreadfair based on 25 pts for winner and 10 for runner-up.Cameron 15.4-15.7: Davis 11.3-12.3: Clarke 4.8-5.8: Fox 2.1-2.5: Field 0.5-1.8BinaryBet spread market based on 100 pts for winner. Cameron 42-50:Davis 27-35: Clarke 12-18: Fox 4-8 Rifkind 0-2
Mike Smithson
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That newsnight piece was THE most unscientific bit of polling I’ve seen so far. I switched on just as it started and thought it was a vaguely comic piece about the power of hypnotism.
He kept on introducing DC in the most enthusiastic manner. A choice for Davies, on the other hand, was constantly accompanied with shakes of the head. Completely manipulative.
Almost as bad as the “revolutionary” new polling done by the Guardian, where they presented a number of people with 5 facts that “encapsulated” each of the candidates and asked them how they would vote. The facts included ‘Cameron has a disabled child… Clarke sells tobacco to the third world’. I wonder who I would vote for… hmmmm?
“Clever” polling is often not really very clever at all.
By the way in both cases the one who came out best was DC… what a surprise
Martin Kettle’s commentary in The Guardian this morning is also rather interesting reading:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/columnist/story/0,9321,1587611,00.html
I watched Newsnight. Did not the main switch occur after they watched each of the speeches, when negatives were introduced only a small handful changed their minds.
However I recall an article by that pollster in a paper before the general and after attending a similiar group and you would as a result have expected a much higher Lib Dem vote.
Perhaps life is more than these groups, my own gut feeling that under pressure of being identified by Labour as privileged, Old Eton etc he would fall back at the crucial final hurdle. His other difficulty is being the assistant to MH at the Home Office when MH was Home Secretary, it identifies him again with another whose philosophy has I suppose been rejected, although some would argue in reality all philosophies got the boot one way or another at the last election.
Interesting link, Matlock. I agree completely with Kettle’s assessment of the mood of Blackpool.
I don’t think Nick is being that fair to Luntz, but I too have my reservations. This sort of metering may be high-tech, but that doesn’t necessarily make it any more reliable than other methods. We shouldn’t make the mistake of thinking new technology is surely able to offer new insight. I want to believe it, but I just don’t see how it can be assumed to measure real voting intention. If you were in a room like this, and you quite expectedly found that no candidate really made a great impression on you, you’d still, I suspect, be inclined to play with the dial to show some sort of response, exaggerating greatly your fondness or dislike. Notice, as Alastair Campbell pointed out on Thursday, just how often you see big changes in these graphs even, more or less, between words. If people’s opinions can change this quickly and inexplicably, how can their voting intentions four years hence possibly be divined?
A curious feature of the selection is that although it’s been going on for months, there’s a rushed feeling about it this week. Most Conservatives (MPs and others) didn’t seriously consider voting for Cameron till two weeks ago, for all the obvious reasons, but many are suddenly tempted, for the reasons the article identifies. Like a whirlwind romance, it offers them excitement and hope and danger, and MPs have just 9 days to decide whether they’ve been swept off their feet (since the first ballot will show pretty clearly how the land lies) without knowing much about his policies, ability in contested debate or ability to form an effective Opposition team. Interesting dilemma!
re 3. There were three big moves in the Cameron price during the week. It started on Monday at about 9.5/1 on Betfair and moved to about 5/1 in the immediate aftermath of the Newsnight feature that evening. The next move followed his speech and the final move was prompted by David Davis’s speech.
At my meeting on Friday night in Blaby with Cameron people who had been at Blackpool were still on a high. It has obviously been asuccess.
As I said to the Leicester Mercury reporter at the meeting Cameron delcared that if elected there would be no immediate cut in tax, a “tax” for pensions probably called compulsory savings (a bit like NI?) - some of which will go into the next Equitable Life(I declare an interest here!), a tax on higher education, and tolls for motorways.
I just do not believe that the existing Tory members (not the potential members he needs once elected) will buy it.
OMG - I’ve just watched the Newsnight clip. That is the biggest load of rubbish I’ve ever seen in my life.
6. CM is right - those were the figures reported on the site during the week.
Looking at my betting accounts I bought Cameron at 9 on the IG Binary bet spread market on Sunday. The current buy price is 50 and if he wins I’ll win 91 times my stake level. I could close my position now at the current sell price of 42 and taken an immediate profit today of 33 times my stake level. I’ve still got an open position on Clarke on IG.
On Betfair I laid David Davis heavily in the period leading up to the conference at an average price of 0.64/1. The current price is 2.15/1. I could back Davis now on Betfair and “bank” a profit. I’ve been tempted but I’ll monitor the next few days and if there is any “whiff” of him keeping his MP support I might reduce my exposure.
All of a sudden, the fear that David Cameron could be William Hague the Second is ancient history…
And, of course, Our Genial Host has an agenda of his own - to talk up whichever of the candidates is most likely to lead the Liberal Democrats to produce a new leader of their own in time for the next Election
I cannot get the image out of mind of lemmings rushing to the cliff edge in support of DC ( or perhaps anyone but DD ) . Back in June I said that he was the best of a poor bunch but a gamble because of his youth . Seems that in the anxiety to not get DD the Conservatives are prepared to risk another Hague and one with quite left wing policies if Icarus has interpreted his speech correctly .
10. IA. Of course the Tory leadership will have an impact on the Lib Dems and its leadership. Most party members want Liam Fox. If he or Davis gets it then there’ll be no pressure for change except from people like me at the fringes.
A Cameron or Clarke Tory leadership could prove difficult for CK but the Lib Dems are too nice to do something so dastardly as depose an incompetent leader, especially one so entertaining when he’s had a drink.
Mike, if that was a poll appearing in the newspaper you wouldn’t give it the time of day. A group of people in the room, NONE of whom had a preference at the start? A load of clips chosen that were incredibly selective (Liam Fox getting high marks for a clip with him saying the party had to change, for example. Er…)
And Luntz’ performance has already been commented on. Obviously it could be torn apart more than that.
The commentary was a joke - is he really so stupid as to think the results of the programme wouldn’t have an effect on the Tory leadership race? And what the vox pops in the street were all about…
Considering some of the comments on the programme it wouldn’t be surprising that if he had told them at the start that Cameron went to Eton etc they wouldn’t have given him the time of day.
Also you will recall that Charles Kennedy did brilliantly on the Luntz exercises before the election…
Two things are needed for DC (in fact, for any candidate) to get to the last two - enough support to get through the first couple of rounds (which Malcolm Rifkind does not appear to have) and the absence of a “stop-x” movement among the parliamentary party at large (that has done for KC in the past). Does DC have either of these things? Any guesses about whose support goes where? I would guess, for example, that if Liam Fox gets knocked out his support would go largely to DD - but this may be fairly one-dimensional.
I enjoyed Vicki Woods’s piece cleverly satirising DC’s lack of depth and experience. When did she switch against him?
13. Whether you agree with it or not it has had a big impact which is all that I was saying. The Newsnight piece led to the Cameron price tightening by nearly half and has been commented on by others as well as me. Of course it’s not a poll but a focus group discussion.
It’s also had a big impact on some Tory MPs and journalists. Look at the comment here by George Trefgarne of the Telegraph a couple of days ago. One Tory MPs who was in contact with me over Conway also mentioned its impact.
Frank Luntz
17 - Why are you so willing to proclaim him “a certainty” if he gets through to the final 2 then Mike? That contest won’t be decided for a couple of months. I get the impression at the moment that the Tories are desperate to believe. Whether that will remain the case is yet to be seen.
19. Before becoming an MP DC made his living as a media professional and he’ll run a much better PR campaigning amongst the Tory membership.
Alex [18] - many thanks for that link. It reminded me that American neo-cons like to leave behind the impression that academic objectivity is another way of spelling liberal conspiracy…
Mike [20] - yes indeed. A Davis-Cameron shoot-out promises to be great fun for everyone who isn’t a Tory
20 - OK, OK Mike, we’ll see. I don’t think unlimited top-up fees, road tolls and drug liberalisation will go down that well but who knows.
Anyway I’m determined to get you to express at least a little mock anger at Newsnight and the fact that they allowed this cr*p to be broadcast. Nobody does indignation at dodgy pollsters and those who facilitate them better than you, Mike, and you could at least make a token effort!
22 (con). At the moment there’s a bit of a bandwagon behind Cameron, and one senses there’s a lot of Tories operating a “suppress their better judgement” policy. We don’t know what will happen if that bandwagon develops a broken wheel.
I’m not sure that the support is there for Cameron among the membership. Having talked to quite a number of Home Counties Conservatives over the past few days, their impression of Cameron is that he is slimey and insincere, rather than smooth and charismatic. They may not be representative of the membership as a whole, but this view seemed to be pretty unanimous.
My impression is that the two most popular Conservatives, among this group, were Clarke and Fox.
On Luntz- he did actually do a good job on the Newsnight election focus group- he said that the biggest swing from labour would be to the Lib Dems (true) and that just a small number would make the direct switch to the tories (true).
The people said they liked Charles Kennedy, but he was lightweight (true!), liked Vince Cable etc.
Sure, there may have been flaws in his piece on the tory conference, but the positve Cameron numbers were backed up in a seperate poll (was it Guardian or Torygraph?), and the fact is that if, for instance, Clarke were to win, Labour would of course bring up his BAT activities.
I’m expecting at least a couple of leadership polls in tomorrow’s papers. It will be interesting to see what the reaction has been.
25 - “On Luntz- he did actually do a good job on the Newsnight election focus group- he said that the biggest swing from labour would be to the Lib Dems (true) and that just a small number would make the direct switch to the tories (true).”
I’m not sure that was a unique insight though, nor one that you really needed a focus group for. I agree the response to Cable was interesting nevertheless.
25 - The newsnight thing didn’t compare at all with the Guardian exercise which was clearly far more scientifically based (although still, because of the small sample ,somewhat flawed) and gave a far more balanced picture, with proper data to back it up.
The Newsnight feature had none of these, owed massively to the presentation by Luntz, and results were skewed by the only ‘data’ being the preference question at the end which was reported as if Cameron would sweep to power with 50%+ of the vote at the next election, with everyone else struggling to avoid obliteration. It also, like the rest of the media coverage of the conference, specifically played up to Cameron’s strengths whilst exposing none of his weaknesses.
27 - what did Cable have that, say, Davis didn’t? Or was the attraction that he was a LibDem who seemed to know what he was talking about economically? The point is that in these exercises you can easily get audiences to say what you like, set the scene correctly and grey moderation & competence can romp home.
2 - Martin Kettle’s piece is quite amusing in a way.
“at last the Tories get it” (but only if they pick Cameron).
Strange but last week “the Tories getting it” meant picking Clarke didn’t it?
I don’t mind Cameron myself, but I’m sure his bubble will burst over the next few days.
32 - the effect of the polls in the Sunday Papers could be very interesting. Despite all the publicity it is still likely that the large majority of the country don’t know who Cameron is. And if that is the case then he will still probably be trailing in “best Tory leader” polls - which in turn will relieve some of the pressure on Tory MPs to guarantee him a place in the last round, giving Clarke a shot in the arm.
2.There is a feeling that since next time is an uphill struggle, having Ken fight for the likely hung parliament assuming things go well before Cameron takes charge maybe the route to follow. To avoid tainting Cameron by coming up short.
The second idea is economic credibility, unless a traumatic event occurs like 1967 or 1992, even a bad recession won’t rob the Govt of that entirely vis 1990-1992. Perversely it may provoke a hunkering down effect GB, well times are tough but the Lad’s inexperienced etc. Blair had any easy time with economic competence because the Tories had blown it so badly, for Cameron it may not be so easy. Luntz had a point and Clarke needs to start saying we more often under Cameron’s guidance, but that Oborne double act idea of the avuncular Chairman and the dynamic chief exec makes sense. With Cameron it’s like pitching a promising young rookie straight into the ring with the heavyweight Champ. Can he take the hits? Maybe but Clarke we know can.
Luntz should run a focus group on this guy
34. The Paddy Ashdown/David Blunkett/Cecil Parkinson Memorial Prize is it?
12 - Mike your comment “Most party members want Liam Fox” is not my experience. I would be interested to know your basis for this. Over the week or so I have been contacting friends across the world who are party members to sound out their views and I can honestly say (Except for one who is an MP) NONE want Fox. Overwhelmingly they prefer Cameron, with one for Clarke and a couple wavering over Davis.
36 - he means LibDem members, Rik.
Will party members go for Cameron once his policies are exposed???
36-37: Oooops - apologies Mike!
38 That depends if they want purity before power . Interesting scenario is that Icarus interprets Cameron’s views as they would put Nucon to the left of Nulab leaving the possibility of Nulib under a new leader to take the position of Oldcon .
40 - I’m not sure the purity before power argument works for Cameron. The members will vote for him if they like him, not if they don’t. It’s not like Ken, where they are consistently told that whatever they think of him, he is popular outside the party. There is no suggestion that Cameron will be more popular outside the party than within - if exposure of some of his policies dents that popularity then his popularity may well drop across the board.
I agree that there are much more scientific public opinion methods than simply asking Luntz to talk to some people in room. But it makes good TV- running a 10 minute piece going through 20 sections of an ICM opinion poll is not good TV. I personally find them fascinating, and they do give anm insight into ‘typical’ public mood.
Regarding Cable, people liked him because he didn’t spin and use snappy soundbites, he was just straight, making sense and dull. He received the highest rating of all for his speech. This was probably because by this stage, after weeks of the campaign, people were probably fed up of the endless speeches with no substance and cheap shots.
42 - Well we’ll have to disagree on that. Of course it makes “good TV” but it is also potentially highly irresponsible. I’ll bet you wouldn’t be impressed by the Sun splashing on the front page with a push poll (but not revealing it as a push poll) claiming 70% want to leave the European Union on the morning of a European election. And television is a much more powerful medium, especially when a supposedly respectable programme like Newsnight is used.
I see that Frank Luntz was back on Newsnight last night looking at the different speeches.
44 - I just watched that - Luntz basically acknowledged that he knew what the results of his focus group in advance!
Wat Tyler has an interesting take on Luntz.
Gavin Esler: “I asked Frank Luntz how come he was smart enough to realise that David Cameron might have the qualities needed to win”
In other words the implication that the whole point of the focus group was to show how popular David Cameron will be - so hardly surprising he came up with that result!
I only saw the Newsnight clip of Cameron (not his full speech) and frankly, it left me cold. I wouldn’t go as far as Sean’s attributed “slimey and insincere” description @24, but the passionate sincerity did appear oddly contrived (and was there really no autocue?).
Yes, I’d vote for him if he and Davis are the final choices, but Ken Clarke with DC as his energetic and maturing deputy would be a safer and generally more attractive combination.
Was Wicky Woods under the effect of some strange substance when she wrote that article?
Is this a political piece or a satirical one?
She should have a very low consideration of British people if she thinks they “pick the tallest, the best-looking…”
And finally if politics is like sex, Davis wins over Cameron (at least for me)!
49 - at 6′5″ tall I find Vicky Woods assessment accurate and reassuring!! lol
Alex, Apologies if you’ve already made this point, but what made me so suspicious of the Newsnight exercise was that the panel was so biased to Cameron even before any of the magic trickery had begun.
I do think Mike is overstating its importance. Renewed interest began at DC’s campaign launch the previous week, the Newsnight poll certainly maintained it, but it was the favourable response to his Conference that was the clincher to his present status. As Sean Fear and others have noted, second or third thoughts may be equally rapid.
50. Is Paul Burstow shorter or taller than you? If he’s shorter, Vicky Woods should review her theory.
51 - did you notice there were “a third hardcore conservatives” who would vote Conservative “come what may”? Well they would unless it was “Howard vs Brown vs Kennedy” - only 5 would do so then
Mike at 12. It’s such a pity that party members want the worst possible leader for their opponents. At least journalists, no matter how partisan, choose the person they would most like to have as PM.
And anyway, a poor opposing leader (e.g. Tory, Fox) may increase the propects of one’s own party (e.g. Lib Dem) doing well. But if the economy goes belly up and Labour make some mistakes, Lib Dems might find themselves reading about PM Fox in the papers every day, ruing the day he won.
53 - Thanks. I hadn’t until seeing the programme again just now! Raises the question about how and by whim these people were selected. Wot a load of old bullocks…
ps meant ‘whom’ but whim is probably more accurate
Sean, John, alex - I agree. Speaking to people, they seemed to like Cameron, and I wondered whether it was just my support for Clarke making me look at Cameron through a lens of negativity. The Newsnight focus group piqued my interest further, but on seeing his full conference speech, I was far more deterred than persuaded. Another politically-active friend of mine was of the same opinion. The sincerity comes across as somewhat contrived, and at the back of my mind the designation of “our Tony Blair” kept nagging away as to how genuine he really is. It was, after all, the same modernising centrist Mr Cameron who acted as Head of Policy Co-ordination before the election. Perhaps because we are more experienced in politics than the man-on-the-street, we are more receptive to what we perceive as insincere.
53/55. Is the background of the people selected knows? Did they know something about politics? have they seen Cameron before?
PS I’ve decided to change my screen name to “Alex W”. Before the election, there were about four or five alexs posting, so “Another Alex” was a sort of ironic selection. Now that there are just two of us, the “Another” seems a little out-of-place :).
My impression from talking to a roomful of North East Conservatives last week (most of whom had not been to conference) was that David Cameron is most definitely on a roll.
If the members ballot was taking place today, then he would walk it. Incredible how support for DD had fallen away very sharply, even amongst the right-wing who had supported IDS last time.
Of course, anything can happen over the next few weeks, but DC made a big impression last week.
58 - It was amusing that when Luntz asked if people recognised the candidates one women instantly piped up “David Cameron. He’s 38″
The point about the Luntz show was that his group all liked Cameron because he reminded them of Blair. All the clips -including his conference performance-was pure Blair. “Let me take you on a journey….” Campbell himself could have written it!
I agree with alex that the program was 100% manipulative. It was shallow and not conducted as a focus group in any conventional sense. But I also agree with Mike. It was far and away the most influential bit of political TV we have seen for quite a time.
Luntz’s influence at the last election took the Tories down a disasterous blind alley but gave Charlie some very worthwhile advice (Go hell for leather on Iraq) So this time it could go either way.
Finally I agree with Sean. Cameron is a seven day wonder and the Tory party will wake up probably next week.
61. People have heard “Cameron. He’s 38″ so many times that I wonder what will happen when he’ll be 39.
I don’t think the Newsnight article tells us much. They used a tiny group of people and the very fact they presented a single speech makes it highly subjective.
Talking of unscientific straw polls I had dinner with a number of Tory friends last night (all 25 or under). Most were for Cameron or Clarke (no support for Fox which was surprising as everyone their was Scottish) but their did seem to be a degree of exasperation that the two of them don’t just get together with Cameron as deputy.
I’ve now seen all the speeches and thought Cameron was very impressive. The comparisons with Hague are, I believe, unfair. Cameron looks and sounds better and is far more media savvy. I can’t imagine he would ever do anything that would open him up to ridicule (like the baseball cap incident). Davis’s speech wasn’t too bad but if you can’t inspire the party then I really can’t see how you inspire the country. People shouldn’t kid themselves that the public want a charisma-free, anti-Blair. That was meant to be IDS’s (who should definately be in the next shadow cabinet) selling point after all.
Proceed with caution if you are long Cameron on the basis of Luntz. Floating voters are, by definition, highly suggestible and the leading of that focus group was pure Mesmerism.
But perhaps I’m just talking my book (I’m green Davis/Clarke as we say in BetfairSpeak) or, it may be that I can’t see one of those dial-turning exercises without thinking of “Tanner ‘88″, Robert Altman and Garry Trudeau’s satirical masterpiece.
I am amazed the Luntz item was taken seriously (tho I don’t disagree with Mike that it can be seen, at least in retrospect, as the springboard for Cameron’s bounce)… IIRC, before the 30-strong focus group had even seen any of the candidates speak, 18 were pro-Cameron, and 8 pro-Davis, and just 1(?) for Clarke.
We then witnessed a great display of manipulated group-think, Luntz declaring “I’ve never ever seen a result like this” in front of those he was supposedly facilitating objectively. This was sham polling with zero credibility.
66. I quite agree. This only goes to further discredit the opinion poll business.
Whatever you think of Cameron, it’s good that Davis has been rumbled. If the leadership vote had been held prior to the party conference and amongst only MPs he would have won comfortably, a disasterous result for the Conservative party. Davis is/was front-runenr for no other reason than people said he was - a self-fulfilling prophecy. Many of the MPs who have declared for him probably did so for career reasons and are now probably regretting their haste.
Two potentially interesting developments. It looks as though Angela Browning and Andrew Rosindell will be declaring for David Davis. That should help him pick up support from undeclared right wingers.
And David Cameron is reported in the FT as saying the Conservative MEPs should withdraw from the EPP, and team up with more conservative groups.
as a Labour supporter I share the Tories dilemma over Cameron. He could be good or he could be WORSE than Hague (Hague had far more experience). If I picture all five contenders next to Charlie Kennedy he is the only one who looks his political equivalent. All the others tower above him. But if I picture him next to Gordon Brown I can see him having a novelty appeal whereas the other four look like minnows.
I agree, Roger. FWIW my instinctive feeling is that
1)Clarke will be pretty good as a PM, but could be very bad for the Tory Party.
2)Cameron could be (although i find it difficult to work out personally) pretty good electorally, subject to policies, but I think would be very green as a PM.
3)Davis will do a competent (perhaps even better than competent as PM) job at both, although he has a big problem with the media who are actively hostile at the moment - a lot would depend on whether the press turn against Brown.
4)Fox would be a disaster at both.
Roger @70. Are you really contending that Ken Clarke is a minnow compared to Gordon Brown
? You were always a jester 
but this is your best yet. I’m sure it’s the way your tell ‘em….
69.”And David Cameron is reported in the FT as saying the Conservative MEPs should withdraw from the EPP, and team up with more conservative groups. ”
Jean-Marie LePen and Alessandra Mussolini?
Possibly, Andrea.
Actually, I think he had Eastern European right wingers in mind.
Sean Fear at 69: yes, very interesting. DC’s reported threat to leave the EPP would prompt resignations among Tory MEPs (but would birng Roger Helmer, currently suspended, back) and is a clear bid for the Eurosceptic vote in a way that doesn’t cost Britain anything (unlike a promise to renegotiate or leave). Tokenism, but clever tokenism. The downside is that it writes off Ken Clarke as a supporter in a DD/DC final, I’d think - KC will just sit it out. But DC probably calculates that he can ignore what’s left of the Tory Europhile vote.
74. Sean Fear, but which Eastern European right wingers has he in mind? The ones who already are in the EEP or the ones who are in the Independence/Democracy or Europe of th Nations groups?
73-74 - No-one I know has ever suggested the Tories linking up with Jean-Marie Le Pen, that is a mischievous and deliberately (?)provocative suggestion. It is more likely that we would link up with Eastern and Central European Euro sceptic groups. I believe that there is also a Danish party that would love to link with the Tories.
It is ludicrous to continue sitting with the EPP, a Eurofederalist outfit. All but a couple of existing Tory MEPs would accept the move I am sure.
77 - I think Andrea in teasing mode. If not, off to his room with no supper..
73. Very interesting move by DC. I was very active in the reinstate Roger campaign which got a lot of support at the conference. DD is unable to make the same promise at the moment presumably to keep the likes of Ian Taylor on side.
77/78. Rik/John- yes, it was a deliberately provocative suggestion.
Alessandra Mussolini is usually funny anyway. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the tories in the same group of her old party, Alleanza Nazionale. Some tory MPs seem to share their opinions. Flag, Nation, traditional family, immigration and security are usually their main issues.
One of the big negatives for DD amongst many Tory MPs is the role he’s likely to give to Derek Conway should he win. There comes a point where his “skill” in getting the votes in is outweighed by the negatives that many MPs see in his tough approach. Many MPs feel intimidated by Conway and to give him more power is not something they look forward to.
R.e David Cameron being 38,he celebrates his 39th birthday tomorrow
Is Roger Helmer the nutter who made Robert Kilroy Silk look like a picture of moderation on European Election night?
The “Reinstate Roger” campaign reminds me of a scene in Life of Brian… “welease Wodewick!”
On the more substantive point, I’m surprised the Tories are still in the EPP. Whose influence is it that keeps them there?
84. I suppose they’re still in the EPP becuase there weren’t the conditions to create a new group and without the support of a political group MEPs are almost useless.
69 - This entrenches the view I’ve expressed about Cameron. Whilst trying to portray himself as the quintessential moderate, he is simultaneously trying to borrow pages from Dr Fox’s book. This is not to say that it’s not a good stand-alone policy, but it does seem that DC is trying to play it both ways. Remember: this is the “moderniser” who was in charge of policy co-ordination prior to the election.
Presumably because of all the policies around which it is sensible for MEPs to coalesce, Euroscepticism is perhaps the most pointless.
64. Can I just point out, in defence of Franz Lunz, that what he showed was the campaign launch speech of the three candidates who had officially declared at that point: Clarke, Cameron and Davis. If you look at the time frame going along the top of the screen you can see that he played approximately 12 minutes of each candidate’s speech. He can hardly be blamed for what Clarke and Davis chose to say when launching their leadership bids. Remember, the bits we saw on TV were the bits that produced the strongest reaction out of the entire 12 minute sequence, not the sum total of what the group saw.
87 - I’m not sure that’s true. If your basic standpoint is that the EU oughtn’t really to do much, you can certainly have a parliamentary grouping dedicated to doing its best to make sure that as little as possible passes.
88 - he didn’t did he? If so that certainly isn’t the only thing he showed.
89-”you can certainly have a parliamentary grouping dedicated to doing its best to make sure that as little as possible passes. ”
the question is “with who?”. They couldn’t create a political group if they’re alone and before the arrival of other right wing eurosceptic parties from Eastern Europe, they didn’t have many choices.
Under the rules of the European Parliament, in order to form a group, you need MEPs from at least 5 different countries. That’s why Conservatives from different countries tend to join the EPP, even though the EPP is really not a Conservative organisation.
My understanding is that some Eastern European centre right parties are unhappy as part of the EPP. If the British and Danish Conservatives were to form their own group, then they would only need to pick up MEPs from three more countries to form a group.
92.”even though the EPP is really not a Conservative organisation”
What do you mean by “Conservative”?
I understand that the EPP is at great pains to deny that it is a centre-right party. Its leadership stress that the European Liberals are centre right, and the European socialists are centre-Left. They insist that they are a centre party.
I would say that on economic issues the EPP is well to the left of the British Conservative Party, as well as almost any Eastern European centre-right party. It is also very strongly committed to transferring sovereignty from the governments of member states to EU institutions.
83. Roger isn’t a nutter
92 - “Under the rules of the European Parliament, in order to form a group, you need MEPs from at least 5 different countries.”
What privileges flow from being a formal group rather than a set of parties who happen to discuss things frequently and tend to vote together?
94. yes, they sometimes stress it, but I always thought they stress it to look moderate.
I would consider CDU or Spanish People’s Party as centre-right parties.
I could agree that on some economic issues they could appear on the left of the tories, but you should remember that continental Europe has a different tradition than UK.
I think your last line has nothing to do with being a centre-right party or not. Many hard-left MPs would agree with you about this.
Speaking as a longterm Tory voter, who has been in despair over the last few years, I was mildly in favour of Davis until the Conference. But I too have switched to Cameron. He just has that personability, that human-ness, that the Tories have lacked for so long - that they vitally need. The Tories have policies in tune with the British people, but their problem is that they are widely disliked, and regarded as selfish and grasping and sleazy etc.
Cameron is likeable. Gentlemanly. Cute wife. Disabled kid - bless. Yes its shallow but its important. Also he lacks the deep deep flaws of the other candidates - Clarke, impossibly Europhile, Rifkind too old, Davis too dull and charmless, Fox too Scottish and rightwing.
Cameron is young, but he’ll be over 40 at the next election. Facing the weird, dour, older, charmless Scot Gordon Brown.
Cameron’s the man. If the Tories don’t go for him then they are idiots. with him they could win, not least by sweeping southern English seats away from the Lib Dems.
95 - I agree! Release Roger!
81 - Their is no way that Conway should be given a top job. IIRC he is a man of such talent that he managed to lose his seat to Paul Marsden of all people. Their has to be a limit (on the part of all contenders) to how many jobs you reserve for your friends. Whatever else the confrence has done it has shown a pool of talent for putting together a decent shadow cabinet. I sincerely hope that Cameron, Clarke, Fox, Davis and Rifkind are all involved along with Willets, Hague, IDS (really!), Caroline Spellman, Gove and surely a brief can be found for dear old Widders (really again!)
Out of interest did anyone else hear a journalist on Radio 5 say that a story might be coming out this weekend that would scupper Liam Fox’s chances?
96. Book Value:
The political groups shall carry out their duties as part of the activities of the Union, including the tasks allocated to them by the Rules of Procedure. The political groups shall be provided with a secretariat on the basis of the establishment plan of the Secretariat, administrative facilities and the appropriations entered for that purpose in Parliament’s budget.
Then I doubt someone will pay attention to him if you’re not part of a political group.
Without knowing too much about German or Spanish politics, I think I’d regard the EPP as being to the Left of the Spanish Popular Party, and the German Christian Democrats, on economic issues.
IMO, the organisation’s views on economics are roughly in the same mould as those of Jaques Chirac. The Economist ran an article a few months ago entitled “Chirac the Socialist” which was a slight exaggeration, but only a slight one.
BV, I think that you need to be a formal group to obtain committee places.
Might also add this: people are dismissing Cameron as a lightweight, a vacuous Blairalike, but I saw on Newsnight that he took a first at Oxford - WHILE living it up as a member of the hard-drinking Bullingdon club. Fairly impressive…
102. Your problems seem to regard only UMP.
Every MEP is part of at least a committee, even the ones who are not part of a political group.
98 - I totally agree. People have expressed concerns about his background but for every picture of Cameron in tails their is a picture of Blair in the hideous Pink and Brown striped blazer of Fettes.
The most important thing about Cameron is he lacks any sense of harshness or nastiness. I really don’t think its enough for a centre-right party to be perceived as ‘competent but cruel’ people have to feel good about voting for us.
Having said all that Ken Clarke would still be my first choice.
95 - Well I don’t have the pleasure of knowing him personally. I just got to see him on TV on European election night
105. Clarke is also a likeable guy… but he is rather smug, and arrogant; things the Tories DESPERATELY have to avoid. And he is tainted by association with the past…. the Tories have to rebrand totally, like Labour did. Not change their policies or beliefs, but REBRAND.
And of course Clarke’s Europhile attitudes are a ticking timebomb. The Constitution could be back in two years, God knows what else might happen…. Labour would exploit the weakness resulting in fatal division within the party. If Clarke had renounced his pro-EU views in his conference speech, that MIGHT have helped. But he didn’t touch the subject. He doesn’t get it on Europe, and never will.
Cameron is Clarke minus these flaws, with the likeability and human-ness. Ergo Cameron.
103/105
Dennis Skinner’s definition of Cameron: he was educated well beyond his intelligence
Can I just ask something of our various Tory posters? I imagine that like me you’ve spoken to other members of the party in various parts of the country. Do any of you have any feel for which Candidate is proving most popular with the people you speak to. As I said above I’ve spoken to quite a few fellow members (all Scottish and mostly younger) who are quite strongly leaning towards Clarke/Cameron rather than Fox/Davis, allthough quite a few had supported Sir Malcolm in the early days of the contest.
96. MEPs not attached to a political group have also more limits in their speaking times (Alessandra Mussolini alaways complains about the fact that they don’t let her speak) and couldn’t vote on the Conference of Presidents (the Conference of Presidents shall take decisions on the organisation of Parliament’s work and matters relating to legislative planning)
The idea that Cameron is a political novice because he only entered Parliament in 2001 is a nonsense. He’s been right there at the centre of the Tory party nationally and the Tory government for a decade and a half. As Michael Crick’s profile showed the other night he was working with Normal Lamont on Black (or white if you want) Wednesday in 1992.
It’s the same with Ed Balls, now very hot favourite to become Chancellor in a Brown-led Government. He might have only entered the Commons in May but he’s been right there at the heart of Government/Labour in a big political role for a decade.
108. Skinner is a performing monkey sitting on the grinding organ of Old Labour.
You don’t get a first at Oxford just by plugging away. Moreover - in the same Newsnight prog (are the Newsmight producers being paid by Cameron’s team??) that revealed his First, they also got his Oxford tutor to say Cameron was the brightest student he ever taught.
Again, fairly impressive…. impresses me, anyway, seeing as I got a 2/2.
109. It’s looking like Camerons to lose now. Seemed to have a broad range of support at conference but there are 200000 (not 300000, a fair few have died since the last count) fairly inactive members who of course will decide it. If DD gets round the country then he may salvage it but it’s an uphill task now.
I would much rather have DC than KC. I witnessed his incrediable arrogence at first hand last week. He’s a man living in the past. Best to leave him there. I like some of the things I’ve heard from Dc such as the pull out of the EPP and his interest in direct democracy. I do have concerns that he’ll try and ape Blair which is something I really don’t think we should do.
there are 200000 (not 300000, a fair few have died since the last count)
They’ve lost 128000 members since 2001? (!)
111. Backstage politics is different from frontstage politics. You could be the best behind th scene and a disaster in front stage politcs.
112. well, I personally couldn’t care less where he has studied. It doens’t make him a good politician.
As you could say that Skinner is a performing monkey, he could say whatever he wants about Cameron.
Woody662 100,000 members have not died since last year.
I attended the Greater Manchester CF AGM last night. Everyone there bar 2 was voting Cameron the other two, interesting, were for Fox. The AGm also have made it policy for us two go out of student olitics and help fight in elections in the Greater Manchester area, Great News for Bury, Bolton, Wigan and Brooklands and Northenden
Max 109. Here in North Yorkshire we still remember William Hague and the feeling that he was promoted too quickly. David Davis is almost a local MP and while we were delighted at holding his seat at the election we are still smarting over our failure to win back Selby.
Cameron is almost an unknown and Clarke has too much baggage and the BAT link is hard to explain away.
My guess is that in a run-off between Cameron and Davis then Davis would just pip him here. He is seen as a good campaigner and Davis earned a lot of respect from members for his beating off the Lib Dem challenge.
A lot of people liked what they saw in Blackpool and that could help Cameron as this progresses.
109 - Max
My contacts are OVERWHELMINGLY for Cameron, massively so. A few weeks ago there was a spread between Davis, Clarke and Fox. Here is what one of my Councillors has just emailed me:
“David Davis was dreadful–if our party picked him–even I might desert !!!
He has as much charisma as a paper bag. Please DONT tell me that the majority of our MP’s support him–even Kennedy is better !!!
If its Davis V Cameron—Cameron every time.
If its Clarke V Davis-Clarke every time.
If its Cameron V Clarke–I’d probably go with the BIG BEAST but not by much–would be happy with either.
What are the chances of a dream ticket with Clarke as leader with Cameron as Deputy or vice versa?”
114. Sorry it should have said 200000+. I very much doubt it’s near 300000 though.
Sean T 112. There’s nothing with a Desmond - a 2:2 named in this way after Desmond Tutu.
Where is the list of declared Tory MPs?
121 http://conservativehome.blogs.com/toryleadership/who_is_backing_who/index.html
I knew you wouldn’t let me down Andrea.
The experience thing (about DC) is a bit irrelevant so far as I can see - its not like you have any specific training you can do to be home/foreign/health etc secretary. And in what other walk of life would a 38 year old be considered a youngster - thats ancient! Feeling a bit old myself though I’m the big 25 on Thursday - the same day as our beloved former Prime Minister, Lady Thatcher. I’m sure all of you on PB.com will join me in wishing her many happy returns!
113 - Thanks for that Woody - did you have a good time at the confrence - really gutted I missed it. From what I’ve seen (from various MP’s and sides of the party) I feel much more hopeful about the future of our party than I did a week ago.
From those I have spoken to here in Yorkshire. Davis was the most popular, but Cameron has taken over. Clarke/Fox have little support. Since conference alot of people are talking in terms of it being worth taking a risk with Cameron. At the start of the campaign it was alot more negative about his background and how a posh southerner would go down badly around here.
I’m still backing DD but wouldn’t mind Cameron, and I’m hoping these two go to the members.
SeanT @112. But the mark of true distinction was obtaining a fourth (sadly long abolished
)
Max@109. On a sample of two returned delegates, a decisive switch from reluctant Davis supporters to enthusiastic Cameronites. In 2001 both backed IDS but would have much preferred Portillo.
123. Chrisco, it’s always a pleasure!
124.”I’m sure all of you on PB.com will join me in wishing her many happy returns! ”
uhm, if I’m really forced to do it……………………..
Btw, are you so young? I thought you were a bit older (around 30).
118. Very interesting. Ta. The one thing I don’t understand is how any sensible Tory could take a risk on Clarke, given his European views. Yes KC is an affable chap: suede shoes, funny jokes, Ronnie Scotts, likes a cigar, blah blah..
But the Tories are only just getting over TWENTY years of internecine conflict on Europe, two decades of truly disastrous splitting, to finally emerge with some kind of eurosceptic consensus. Given this harrowing history, if they now go and elect one of the last virulent pro-Europeans in the UK as the party’s leader - well, that would just be insane, and a monumental blunder. Its the one way this issue could come back YET AGAIN to destroy us.
Clarke is good, but he’s not worth the self-immolation of the party, whatever your views… no? Or am I just a neurotic eurosceptic, leaping at shadows - as Clarke would describe me!
117, 118 - Thank you both. Countryman, what went wrong in Selby (and nearly Shipley) - I saw your candidate (Mark Menzies IIRC) and he came across really well. I was in North Yorkshire (in a rural area near Thirsk ) a few months back it really is one of the most beutiful places in Britain - almost as nice as the Borders!
128 - “Or am I just a neurotic eurosceptic, leaping at shadows”
Having insight into your condition is a most laudible first step…
228.”“Or am I just a neurotic eurosceptic, leaping at shadows””
No, you’re just a performing monkey sitting on the grinding organ of Old Conservatives
124. Yes it was really good. Lost about half a stone running round putting posters up. The new ideas being thought up are very interesting and it feels like we are progressing at last. (as long as we don’t get KC as leader, sorry)
125 - I was never too bothered about the Eton/Oxford thing. I’d rather have a posh southener than a tough Yorkshireman (apologies John T, Countryman and tough Yorkshiremen everywhere!) in the seats I’ll be campaigning in, which I accept is a bit selfish. The handful of seats in Scotland that we have a chance of winning are rural and/or middle class where he’ll go down quite well. I’m not convinced their are too many working-class Tory votes to be won outwith the South East - I would think we’ll have more chance concentrating on the AB’s.
127 - Honestly I’ll only be 25! I was born in 1980. Also share my birthday with Paul Simon and the Greek singing legend Nana Maskouri (probably spelt wrong!).
134. Max, I need more elements to trust you………..
Now I’ll go and see if I share my brithday with someone famous.
133. I’ll stop banging my pro-Cameron tambourine soon, but I think (and forgive the way I put this, there’s no other way of putting it) the disabled kid thing balances out the Eton/Oxford thing.
If it weren’t for his disabled child, Cameron’s poshness could make a lot of people chippy - an Eton background does get up people’s noses, remember how it did for Hurd. Yet somehow because Cameron has this situation in his family, you feel on a very basic, emotional, shallow, human level - well, he’s been through some hard times, he can relate to suffering, he can empathise. i know it sounds ludicrous, it shouldn’t really matter, but it DOES matter - and it somehow makes Cameron appear a more attractive, rounded person.
Perhaps in future all ex-Etonian leadership candidates should make sure they have something similar, or perhaps they could have a sister with cancer or something. I say that only half in jest. And with no offence intended to The Cameron Family!
129 - On their canvassing Philip Davies thought he was going to lose Shipley. As Bradford expands the seat is becoming less rural and the new estates are not good tory ground. Philip will work hard though and build up a good reputation.
I know less about Selby - although Mark Menzies and Philip Davies both worked together at Asda HQ in Leeds before the election.
134 - apparently I share mine with Charlotte Church (well, the day, not the year).
136. Coulnd’t it be that at the end voters couldn’t care less about his education or his family? Everybody will probably feel sympathetic about his son’s situation, but I doubt many people will decide their vote becuase of his son.
David Davis for the party leadership
in 2001 has today declared his support for his former favourite’s rival, David
Cameron.
Gosport MP Peter Viggers said that times had moved on since he was one of 18
Peter Viggers, who backed Davis in 2001 and even nominated him, has come out for Cameron. He said: “we have to identify the person best placed to win and hold the confidence of today’s and
tomorrow’s voters”
I think that takes Cameron to 26 declared supporters.
138. I share my birthday with Michael Ancram (but not the year)
Oops. sorry about that mistake.
Peter Viggers, who backed Davis in 2001 and even nominated him, has come out for Cameron. He said: “we have to identify the person best placed to win and hold the confidence of today’s and
tomorrow’s voters”
I think that takes Cameron to 26 declared supporters.
139 - People might resent him telling them to pay £30,000 for their university education.
136 - In fairness to Cameron, despite my reservations, I don’t think that the background really makes much of a difference. The people who are going to be really aggrieved that he had an educated background are likley to be fairly hard-core Labour supporters with a general distaste for “Tory toffs” as they perceive them. Amongst swing voters, it is unlikely to make any more than a marginal difference. Blair’s background was of minimal importance throughout the top-up fees debate.
137. Is Philip Davies one of the “tory taliban”?
I’d be interested to know which of the Conservative MEPs would be shocked if they quit the EPP.
Isn’t there already a “Right” bloc containing amongst others Fianna Fail? Wouldn’t that be the appropriate home for UK Tories?
133 - Not sure a policy of concentrating on ABs will bring any success whatsoever in urban seats - and we need to win urban seats if we will ever form a Government.
146 - that’s the one with the Italian Alleanza Nationale, which might prove controversial.
http://www.uengroup.org/home.html
146-”Isn’t there already a “Right” bloc containing amongst others Fianna Fail? ”
yes, the Union for Europe of the Nations Group .