Are you ready for the Cameron media love-in?
October 10th, 2005-
Could the hype shift the General Election markets?
David Cameron’s progress in the past eight days has been staggering and although hurdles remain his political-savvy campaign team are going to do everything they can not to let the current opportunity go. If he does succeed Michael Howard then he’ll be the first party leader ever to have had a background in public relations before entering parliament - a fact not without significance.
His day job in the years before the 2001 General Election was as PR boss for what was then Carlton Television and his expertise is showing in the current campaign. He’s liked by journalists because as well as being “new” and good-looking a large part of his professional life has been spent working at the front line with people like them and he knows what he’s doing in this arena.
On August 1st I wrote here“…This guy is a communications professional and we think that this will help him enormously if the Tory party reject the Howard rule changes and stick with the system of the final leadership say being with the party membership at large. From a betting standpoint we think he will have a good party conference and his price will tighten the closer it gets to decision time… there could be money to be made on the spread and exchange markets as the Cameron price tightens, as we think it will, in the run-up to the final decsion.”
Expect to see an extraordinary media love-in with Cameron in the run-up to leadership election result and thereafter if he does win. Within a short period, I believe, “expert commentators” will be suggesting that the Tories might just stand a chance at the next General Election. The idea that Labour might be beaten will start to emerge.
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And this is where there might be a profit opportunity. My guess is that the betting exchange and spread markets could see a shift from Labour to the Tories on the outcome of the next General Election. There are many Tories who want to believe and prices could move.
And because in both these forms of betting you can usually close down a position at any time there might be short-term money to be made betting against Labour only to move out when the price has moved. Bear in mind that with both the Betfair exchange and IG’s BinaryBet the outcome is on “which party will win most seats” - not on whether there will be an overall majority.
I am certainly not making a prediction about the next General Election - but I believe the media-hype that we are already seeing about the whole political environment changing could cause a shift which might offer a chance to make a profit.
At time of posting Betfair had 0.54/1 to 0.57/1 on Labour being top party. The IG’s BinaryBet Labour spread was 60-66. I’ve just “sold” Labour at 60.
A DATE FOR YOUR DIARY We are planning to hold a New Year PB.C party in London on Saturday January 14th 2006. Philip Gould, the leading Labour pollster, made a donation to the last PB.C party which was not, in the end, needed. This will help us cover the core costs of the get-together.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Several interesting items in this mornings papers pertaining to the leadership contest:
The Times reports that Michael Spencer, the millionaire City businessman who bankrolled Lynton Crosby for the Tories’ 2005 election campaign has today declared for David Cameron. The same article has David Davis calling Cameron a ‘charlatan’ and accusing him of aping Tony Blair.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-1819169,00.html
The Telegraph has compiled a list of hitherto undeclared MPs and given some indication as to how they may eventually do. Very speculative of course, but interesting reading anyway. The link is attached:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/10/10/ntory110.xml
Ughh.. ‘what they may eventually do’, rather. Need more coffee!
AHM - fascinating article, many thanks for posting it here.
I haven’t totted it up, but from a quick scan of this + the list of those already declared, do you agree that it looks very unlikely Clarke will make the final 2?
Mr Smithson. Does the ‘curse’ of the favourite now fall on the shoulders of David Cameron. Could this new ‘media love in’ actually help Davis, or even Fox? The right of the party are not going to lie down easily after 15 years of trying to wrest control of the party just because a bunch of hacks like the new boy on the block. Labour had had 5 or 6 years of Kinnock and then Smith taming the left of the Labour Party before Blair could muscle in. It does not seem that the Conservative Party has been through a similar ‘flipside’ process to me.
It doesn’t look good fo KC if those projections are correct. However much depends on David Davis’s ability to hold together his coalition of supporters. If he fails to then its still too early to write anyone off.
As for DC I honestly don’t think the speech is just a flash in the plan. He’s been consistently good on TV and Radio interviews and their are two things I really ike about him. Firstly is his niceness and likeability and secondly is his apparent self-belief. I’m not convinced that Hague, IDS and Howard really thought they were political equals to Blair and Brown whereas Cameron seems to have the confidence/arrogance needed to take them on. Much like Hearts against the Old Firm this season!
I can’t help fearing that the press are building him up to knock him down.
Interesting AHM. From the figures above and those already known it looks like the top two on the first ballot will be Davis and Fox. Rifkind will have to go and if Clark comes in fourth he’ll probably hang up his boots too. Where will rifkind and Clarks votes go? Not possible to say really
Roger @ 7 - I disagree.
With those already declared (Davis 65, Cameron 26, Clarke 18, Fox 15, Rifkind 7), I reckon that we’re loooking at Davis and Cameron top (although Fox a pretty close 3rd).
Is it worth having a competition thread for 1st (and subsequent) ballots?
If so, here’s my guess:
1st Ballot: Davis 77, Cameron 45, Fox 41, Clarke 25, Rifkind 10.
“Much like Hearts against the Old Firm this season!”
The perfect analogy Max. In three seasons time the question on every Scotsmans lips will be “Hearts?…..I remember when when they looked like they might win something. It was a long time ago now……..”
8 - in that scenario, would only Rifkind be eliminated, or Clarke too (given that even with Rifkind’s transfers he couldn’t overtake Fox)?
BV - I think they all vote again. They don’t use AV so several of those who voted for the top 4 candidates will reasses their voting in round 2. Hence it isn’t just the 10 Rifkind votes that’d be up for grabs.
Andy. And your guess for the second round?
11 - (Little Britain voice) Yeah, I know.
I suppose in that case you could argue that no one should ever be eliminated and they just keep voting (in the way that American party conventions used to - and in theory, still do - work).
Now I don’t mind you insulting the Tories Roger but I draw the line at slagging the mighty JT’s!
11. But Clark is certain to withdraw unless he’s in the first two in my opinion. It’s just in his nature. Remember his advice to Maggie?
A bit late but…
from PA
Tories, returning buoyed by their conference, were brought down with bump by a Labour council by-election gain.
Candidate Lynsey Tod took a Wicksteed seat at Kettering Borough, Northamptonshire.
The result comes in a marginal ward, in a marginal constituency, in a county where Conservatives took control in the May shire polls and made three gains in the General Election on the same day.
This week Tories’ Gerald Dakin did manage to snatch an independent seat at Whitchurch South, North Shropshire District.
Outside Kettering, Labour was less successful in the only two other wards it fought.
Former North Tyneside elected Mayor Linda Arkley - narrowly ousted in May - returned to the council, comfortably defending a Preston seat.
At Nonsuch, Epsom and Ewell Borough, Surrey, won by the Independent Residents Associations, Labour garnered just 12 votes.
RESULTS
Epsom and Ewell Borough - Nonsuch: Ind Res 539, C 183, Lib Dem 95, Lab 12. (May 2003 - Three seats Ind Res 1149, 1125, 1115, Lib Dem 175, Lab 78, 77, 73). Ind Res hold. Swing 1.4% Lab to Lib Dem.
Hinckley and Bosworth Borough - Groby: C 785, Lib Dem 545, BNP 247, Ind 232. (May 2003 - C 1187, 1116, Ind 365, Lab 365, 321). C hold.
Kettering Borough - Wicksteed: Lab 464, C 374, Lib Dem 96. (May 2003 - Two seats C 427, Lab 426, C 413, Lab 395). Lab gain from C. Swing 5.4% C to Lab.
North Shropshire District - Whitchurch South: C 204, Ind 191. (May 2003 - Two seats Ind 492, 383, Lab 291, C 291, 187). C gain from Ind.
North Tyneside Borough - Preston: C 1458, Lab 722, Lib Dem 146. (June 2004 - Three seats C 1769, 1750, 1661, Lab 998, 997, 870, Lib Dem 667). C hold. Swing 4.3% Lab to C.
5. The Sun joins the ranks of those pressing for more than two to to the membership, although naturally their list doesn’t include Clarke. Could it happen? Would a three way Davis/Cameron/Clarke face off split the anti Davis Camp? Perhaps something to factor into your betting Considerations.
Surely Davis would go straight up the middle of thosen two - in a 3 way run-off?
4. I think most of the right of the party will be quite comfortable with Cameron. His mood music may be ‘modernising’ and ‘liberal’ but his underlying views seem very much in line with the Tory mainstream. The calculation will be that he offers 75% of the kind of policy agenda they would like, versus maybe 85% from Fox or Davis, but his chance of actually delivering (i.e. winning a general election) is double that of an old-fashioned right-winger. Ergo its a no-brainer.
[17] Surely the 1922 Committee Executive is one place Big Rupe’s writ doesn’t run? (This is the other one, natch :lol:)
If my wild-assed guess were true (and my guess is only as good as everyone elses - lets have some more guesses), then Clarke would have to consider carefully. He might assume (in this circumstance) that Cameron benefitted from some tactical voting from those who would support him, or that Fox benefitted from some Davis votes.
I reckon that, as it’s his last realistic shot, he’d stay in for the second ballot.
I’d also bet against a 3-way runoff to the members. They wouldn’t do it when Portillo was behind by 1 vote, so they’d have to break precedent.
Mr Smithson with a few exceptions a belief in possible Tory victory can only come from improved opinion poll ratings. Do you give them a chance under Cameron. Labour will be out to define him as they did his predecessors in his first three months. The only extra factor in his favour is that TB may not have the same motivation this time, while Brown who would will be yet to have formally grasped all the levers of the Party machine.
Anon 17. It’s taken them seven months to work out this dogs breakfast of a selection process. They wont be allowed to change it on a Trevor Kavanagh whim will they?
Last time David Davis withdrew after the re-run first ballot even though he did not have to. But with just 18 votes he was so far behind. KC might do the same.
The only reason why Clarke might want to stay in is that the opinion polls show he would do better with the membership than MPs. But yesterday’s YouGov survey of Tory members putting him at 26% behind Cameron on 39% takes away a lot of his main case. He was still well ahead of Fox and Davis though.
I personally think that Davis is probably finished. Being in third place on 14% with the membership it is going to be harder keeping his MPs on side. If he gets less votes than the MPs he was claiming he had then he’s toast.
Liam Fox is getting interesting support and I think a run-off between him and Cameron would be good for the party. The mood where I am is to look forward with a new generation and Fox and Cameron fit that bill.
From my point of view - i.e most danger to the progress of the Liberal Democrats (10 is most dangerous 0 is most helpful)- Anything below 5 is likely to be good news.
KC 8
DC 5
MR 4
LF 3
DD 2
Does anyone agree /disagree?
Anon 22. My guess is that if the media coverage stays good for Cameron then he if he wins he will have a honeymoon period with the media and this will be reflected in the polls. I cannot see a Davis victory leading to much of a boost though there could be a sort one for Ken Clarke.
The problem the Tories have with almost all polls is that their methodologies are biased to Labour. YouGov should be better this time because they do not need to ask the “past voting recall” question because they have all that information stored from survey immediately after May 5th.
The phone pollsters, for whatever reason, always seem to find more Labour support because it appears that these people are much more likely to answer and respond to randomised unsolicited phone calls. I disagree very strongly with the mechanisms that they use to “correct” this bias.
26. From your, ” ” around the expert commentators it sounds like you believe any Cameron lift in the polls will be but a temporary mirage in the electoral desert for the Tories, or has as John Rentoul mischievously suggested Blair’s abilities been reborn Doctor Who like in a new person.
Icarus,
Looking at the 2005 GE results, in each constituency, those who fought off challenges for Lib Dems were Davis (high-profile highly targetted “decapitation target”), who achieved a swing of 3.2% to Con against LD and Fox (swing of 3.9% against Con to LD). Cameron had the luxury of a split opposition, where the LDs overtook Labour to take second place against him. Rifkind has a similar (although safer) constituency with a similar result. Clarke has Labour in second place and increased his lead over them; however, he did have an overall (small) swing towards the third placed Lib Dems.
My personal call for “against the Lib Dems” would be:
DD 7
DC 6
KC 5
MR 5
LF 3
Are there any tory posters on here who think that DD is the man? Can they explain to the rest of us why competent-but-dull is the way to go? I wonder if they’d mention his ‘policies’ as though that were relevant?
24. It would be highly dangerous for the Party more like. Fox has lurched so far out to the right and made so many intemperate comments that will be fired back at him, that Labour will hardly need to bother to define him as a swivel eyed right winger he will have done it himself. Getting back to the Center would be virtually impossible for him, as he makes Davis look a bleedin heart Liberal by comparison.
Icarus. I think that the first past the post electorate is now sophisticated enough for the Tory leader to have little specific impact on the Lib Dems. At the election they make their choice out of Labour Tory or hung Parliament. I think the choice of Tory leader is only relevant to the Lib Dems in the same way as it’s relevant to Labour ie whether they make the Tories look electable again. My own guess is that whoever makes the contest more competative is likely to lead to a squeezed Lib Dem vote because so few want a hung parliament. This could as easily come from an invigorated right wing (against an invigorated left under Brown) as from an attractive centrist
Well the betting markets have Davis far from “finished”. The odds are rapidly heading back towards where they were before the shift caused by the YouGov members poll on Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Remember this whole situation is still very much media inspired. Reading some of the Sunday press one can still very much sense the ways in which many Tory MPs will be torn about Cameron, and there is bound to be some sympathy for what happened to Davis (this was clearly alluded to by Liam Fox on the politics show). I am sure they are becoming increasingly aware of quite what a brilliant media coup Cameron pulled at the Conference (something that many would have made them extremely angry had it been done by them on Labour) - on the one hand they will be attracted by the prospect that similar things could be done to the Government, on the other they will be somewhat wary if they perceive that Cameron’s rise (STRONGLY contested by his camp) is solely to do with that.
BTW the betting odds don’t seem to make much sense to me at present - I wish there was a market for “will make the final ballot”, it would make things much easier to understand. I guess they won’t do that whilst it is not CERTAIN that there will only be 2 in it.
I agree alex. It’s impossible not to have the feeling that the Cameron bubble could burst at any moment. As Rawnsley said yesterday Blair had been in Parliament foir eleven years and had held three important shadow cabinet positions when he was chosen as leader and he had shone at all three. I have a feeling that the parliamentary party are going to have a collective ‘morning after the night before’ and start to seriously consider whether PR and substance aren’t being confused.
23 Roger - the provisions are already there. We won’t know officially how many names will make it on the final ballot paper until close of nominations. As I’ve mentioned before it’s unlikely to be more than 2, given the 50% threshold required
1. Good links AHM, thanks. I’m reading the enemy this week so any Times/Torygraph links are much appreciated.
re: the Party - almost clashes with my 25th birthday but I’ll make every effort to be there.
The latest BBC survey had Cameron hitting the dizzy heights of 13%.
A tory leader with good PR skills and who the media like, and knows how to charm the media - that would make a nice change - surely the parliamentary party must see this as a plus?
Is anyone else going to put in their guess for the first ballot?
39 - No Andy, but I reckon if Davis thought that he could get the result you predict in 9, he will promise to run naked through the streets of Haltemprice
25, 30, and on the effect of different Tory leadership victors on the fortunes of the LibDems generally -
If Fox were to win then champagne corks would be popping at Charles Kennedy’s gaff. The LDs could expect to push back again after losing ground to the Tories in this year’s GE, and the very notion they could become “the real opposition” would be back on the agenda. The only thing that could happen which would create a more favourable political environs for the LDs is an attack on Syria or Iran frankly.
The most dangerous candidate for the LibDems is Cameron. No contest.
Danger to the LDs
DC 8
DD 5
KC 4
LF 1
Come on Foxy…
39 Andy. 1.Davis 2.Fox 3.Cameron 4 Clark 5.Rifkind
37. Is there any other 2001 MP, the choice of 13% for PM? Doubt it. I had my doubts about Cameron but if he can keep up this media blitzkrieg, he may just turn a few heads. If he can survive his first 100 days V Labour without being destroyed I think Brown will have serious problems on his hands. Just like 1997 when the media are tired of you it becomes an uphill slog, even if not yet to the same extent.
35 Andy - would you mind explaining what you mean exactly. Are you saying that the current rules allow more than two contenders to go through to the membership ballot? Is this only if the there is a join second place among MPs?
43 - no way can Fox come second.
I think we are looking at
1. Davis
2. Cameron
3. Clarke (quite a way behind Cameron, enough to cause him to think of pulling out)
4. Fox (not far behind Clarke)
5. Rifkind (no more than 10 votes)
40- Oh? I didn’t think that 12 more on top of his current declarations would be unrealistic (he’s got to be holding some in reserve, plus some of the undecideds will break for him).
I thought that the high numbers for Fox and Cameron relative to Clarke would be the more arguable.
A good analysis by Peter Kellner on the weekend’s polls has just been published on YouGov’s website. He concludes:-
“Yet Cameron is now in pole position; and, for the time being, party members believe that he has the elusive ‘X factor’ – a man who looks and sounds as if he belongs to the 21st century, who does not revive memories of the last Conservative government, and who can inspire voters without dividing his party. If he sustains that reputation over the next few weeks, he will be hard to beat.
The full article is at http://www.yougov.com/interactive/kellnerMain.asp?jID=3&aId=2389&sID=6&wID=0&UID=
Stonch, roger …
Any numbers on the votes (like post 9)?
49 - to give numbers I’d have to study the link above giving a feel for who the “undeclareds” among the MPs will go for - and I haven’t got time!
Having just read my own predictions I’ve just put a bet on Fox. At least he’s cheap!
Andy. You said earlier that Fox had 18. Someone on here yesterday said 25. Is your information on this accurate?
47 - I think it’s more the possibility that some people are going to peel off into other camps - although it has to be said that the stabilisation in his betting odds suggests that the immediate crisis may have passed.
45 - Stonch, technically i think the 1922 committee can do what they like. I’m not sure it’s even certain that they have to have a vote among MPs. The key criteria in the rules are that the 1922 have to nominate candidates for the members to vote on, and the winner has to have secured 50% of the vote among the membership. Presumably whether (”50% after second or third preferences have been counted in an STV system” counts as “50%” is presumably a bit of a grey area).
52 - Roger. Declarations here
roger,
I’m using the information from http://conservativehome.blogs.com/toryleadership/who_is_backing_who/index.html
I did put down KC on 18; should have been 19 (and is up to 20 as of today. DC up to 27.
If Davis scored well enough on the first ballot, say 90 votes I would guess his momentum would carry him through the next round (if there was one) and the members vote as well. It would be clear he was the MP’s overwhelming choice and Cameron with say 35 on the first ballot would have had it even if he comes in second. Strange but this is the way political contests seem to work.
Lovely story on the ConservativeHome site in the comments section. Apparently one of the 3 hustings in the next week is for “MP’s wives” (spouses)
48 Mike Smithson. I agree with Kellners’s analysis. As it stands this race is now David Cameron’s to lose, as it was DD’s to lose a week ago. There may be some movement in the coming hustings until the first round next Thursday and unless Cameron (or David Charlaton as DD’s team is calling Cameron) enjoys the briefest of media honeymoons he will be the next Conservative leader. On the media love in with DC I asked one well connected media big hitter and invariably shrewd and correct judge on these matters who said he expected “another Tory leadership contest before the next election !!” ……. Mike you may have excess server load for some years to come
Sorry will not make the party …… what self respecting Scotsman will not be on his estates in the New Year
BTW Merkel is to be Chancellor in a Grand Coalition but with a minority of Cabinet posts for the CDU/CSU….. what a mess !!
Source : AP.
57 - if that is true, its not “lovely”, its ludicrous and patronising and makes the Tories look terrible.
58 - Merkel won’t have a minority of Cabinet posts - the Cabinet will be 50/50 (including her) but the SPD will have more ministries.
Schroeder will retire from politics.
57 is that some niche market topshelf publication??
There’s very little betting at the moment because there’s little to trigger it off.
The big question is how much MPs are going to be influenced by next weekend’s YouGov poll of Tory members. If the figures are like yesterday’s then it’ll be very hard for Davis to keep his MPs on side. Getting just 14% was abysmal.
My reckoning is that the Ken Clarke figure - 26% - will go down and a largish proportion of that will go to DC - provided there are no media slip-ups or other events in the next five days. Thus if the members are polling DC at 40-50% it will be very hard to sustain the support of MPs for other candidatates.
If DC drop significantly then the conference effect will just be seen as a flash in the pan.
62. And if they show a wish for a Clarke/Cameron run off?
60 - that means we can finally calculate the scores for the September prediction competition. I’ll do the numbers and ask Mike to announce the winner.
Possible Terrorism statement this afternoon. It’ll be interesting to see the reaction.
63 - I don’t see how it’s possible for a Clarke/Cameron run-off to happen.
61 - Mainstream in the House of Commons I think
61 Tabman. Indeed ! The rarefyed atmosphere of top shelf publications is not to be sniffed at ….. although that’s a sub genre in itself
Jacobite Readers Wives is a huge seller (as opposed to Huge Cellar !! - another great title in the S&M line ).
Surely the surge in Cameron shareprice shows how deperate the Tory party is that he can come from nowhere in a week despite everyone knowing there would be an contest since the GE.
Unfortunately for him the election is not tomorrow, but early in December - plenty of time for his colleagues to point out the “flaws” in his tax, tax, tax, agenda with hopefully a small cut by the end of his first parliament, for the Low Tax conservatives who felt that Howard was too cautious.
Three declared taxes to date (there may be more!)
Tax - on students
Tax - on roads
Tax - NI up to pay for compulsory pensions savings
I’m sure, in the short-run, picking Cameron will prove a fillip to the Tories – if he sticks to the centre ground, he will probably pick up some soft New Labour and Lib Dem votes, esp. in the south. (I think he’ll find the north and Celtic regions far tougher to penetrate, the more so against Brown and Kennedy.)
But what of the longer-term? It’s (almost) inconceivable that the Tories can win the ’09 election outright; pretty unlikely they will be the single largest party. Which means by the time Cameron might walk into No. 10, the best he can realistically hope for is to have led his party to a respectable defeat, well placed for ‘one more heave’. However, his freshness will, by then, have evaporated. Given the average tenure of party leaders is <10 years (and the longest is 15 years), why does Cameron want to spend the next 8 years of that precious allocation outside government?
For the optimists who believe the Tories can win the next election, the next question is this: will Cameron be a better PM in 4 years time than he would be in 10 years time? Even Blair – who was far more experienced than Cameron – would have been a much better PM, I think, if he had not been thrust into the top job with no government experience. As a result, he (by his own admission) made a poor fist of his first two terms in office.
David Cameron: right guy, wrong time.
70 - I’d rather a (supposedly) high-tax Tory in government than a low tax Tory outside government.
Re MPs wives - can anyone sell me the issue with Mrs Robathan in it?
71 Julian. I’d rather not have a high tax any party thank you very much !!! ….. and if all the Tories have on offer is a Blair Lite alternative I’m afraid it’s not a very cheery prospect !
Julian H - interesting analysis and a situation that has concerned me.
But in the end if Cameron wants to out himself up for the challenge, we have to think of the party first, rather than his career. We cannot afford to meander along as we are and if Cameron can offer us a boost, but just miss out ala Kinnock - then that is a boost we cannot afford to delay, especially with the Lib Dems chasing us down.
Furthermore in 4 years time, people like Osbourne will be ready too.
Interesting debate. I’ve posted a few times on here, but without much response, that I believe that the tory leadership contest will herald a much sharper two party contest at the next general election, and that there is a very good chance that the lib dems will get squeezed and lose a large number of seats.
If the tories elect fox, forget these scenario, if they elect davis there will only be a minor squeeze, but it’s clarke or cameron I feel the lib dems will lose votes both to the tories and labour next time around.
73 - I don’t think Blair Lite is all that is offered. Yes, Cameron will bring a more digestable form of Conservatism to the electorate (even if this is just an image thing) and, importantly, stop the socially illiberals murmurings that have continued to emanate from the Party under Howard. However, in a stronger, policy sense, he will be backed up by young Turks like Vaizey, Gove and Osbourne who all have solid ideas on political change on everything from New Localism to flat tax.
Re: The Undecideds in the Torygraph - I’m become a big fan of Adam Afriye (even if I can’t spell his name). “Resolutely on the fence” - quality.
Billy - welcome to the website!
I certainly hope so, but I am not sure - the Lib Dems are a clever beast, but I admit that with Kennedy in charge I cannot see them being able to have the focus and drive to respond to a more centrist Conservative Party.
What I do think is that the Lib Dems may struggle to sell themselves as a viable real alternative and just maintain their role as the protest party for whatever big issue there is in 2009.
They could scrap their high tax policies, but if the Conservatives get their act together, I am not sure why people would want the Lib Dems in when the Conservatives offer a good place and a chance of victory.
Having said all this there are a number of big “if’s” in this analysis and it is usually very difficuly to oust a sitting Lib Dem.
75 - I remember your last post to the effect; it was very convincing. Maybe there are some polling stats somewhere to back it up (ie. what issues people who switch to Lib Dem cite as being important).
75 Billy. I fear your over optimistic about repelling the yellow peril. The Lib Dems are too entrenched in too many seats for there to be anything other than another exchange of seats at the next GE. I believe that the voters now look at the Lib Dems as credible challengers in any individual targetted seat. Further the number of Lib Dems in second place increased considerably at the last GE. You may eventually have a situation where voters cast around for the best placed challenger to defeat NuLab as in reverse with the Tories in 97, but on a smaller scale.
60. Matt, all German newspapers are reporting that SPD will get 8 (Foreigh Affairs, Finances, Development, Justice, Health, Transport, Work and Environment) Cabinet seats and CDU 6 (Defense, Economics, Home Affairs, Education, COnsumer Protection and Family + Merkel as Chancellor).
75 conversely, Billy, with the Lib Dems holding 62 seats a close election could sharpen the atmosphere for tactical voting in seats where we are first or second: “Vote LD to keep the Tories out/stop them getting a majority; vote LD to erode Labour’s majority its time to boot out Blair/Brown.”
One thing is for sure the electorate are far more sophisticated at understanding their local situation than in the past. Furthermore, you might (as presumably a Tory supporter of FPTP) like to take a quick look at this article.
Tabman, I’m liking your links; keep ‘em coming.
If there’s a big switch at the next election it will be due to a Labour collapse with Conservatives gaining big time, and LibDems (like this time) standing still - few losses to Cons, gains from Labour. IMO.
It has become accepted wisdom that the Conservatives need to look “less nasty”, but if they try and achieve that with a raft of socially liberal policies it is not at all certain that that will lead to electoral success. Very easy to sneer at the right of the Tory Party, but they still represent a Considerable body of opinion in the country (which in any PR system would have huge influence).
76 Julian. So if Cameron slaps down the rabid Tombstone group and offers a few ideas on tax …… what makes that so different from NuLab. Are you saying that Cameron offers better management of the same pie ? It’s going to get very crowded on that centre ground !!
“Resolutely on the Fence ” - Didn’t that use to be the motto of the SDP !!
81. But as Lab feels the unpopularity of Govt surely you should target Seats like Swansea West, as at best assuming Fox/Davis is not Leader, you will probably only trade seats at the margins with the Tories and the best chance for real gains is against Labour, as the Tories concentrate on seats they can win and sotto voce would probably be only too happy to see a few lost deposits in seats like Swansea West if it means Lab lose the seat and face the same Left-Right squeeze the Tories themselves faced in the 1990’s. Look at Bullseye post, yesterday post 111.
80 Andrea. I wonder how the FDP feel about being dumped !! I suppose they’ll be the main oppostion. Go FDP …… 15% next time
84. The difference is that we will not have an over-spending over-taxing Chancellor and neither will we have a governing Party subject to being lobbied/bullied by the TUs and the Awkward Squad. Hence no ridiculous Bills banning toffs from chasing after foxes on their horses. Blair bemoans that he has not been able to “reform” like he wished - a Tory government would be able to do this, free from the restrictions of the Left.
80. Andrea - The CDU will also have the Kanzleramtschef. The cabinet will be CDU/CSU: 6+2 - SPD: 8.
A couple of thought before the next lesson……
-I suspect that if a new voting intentions poll will come out in these days asking what people would vote with Cameron leading the tories, the result will be very good for the tories.
We’re in a phase of Cameron’s auphoria, but it could not last in the long term.
- if Cameron really want to “modernise” the party, he needs to isolate the hard right (Cornerstone) like New Labour did with the hard-left. Will he be able to do it?
The hard-right won’t like it and it will feel frustrated (like the Campaign Group has been frustrated with Blair in all these years). If the right would have enogh signatures to challenge him, the party could face lots of internal fights.
The work to isolate the hard-right could be dirty (like trying to stop constituency parties to select some candidates).
82 Julian H - I’ll take you at your word
- this one looks at alex’s point at 83 about the socially conservative constituency that is out there.
84 - ask Rik
87 Julian. Accepting the economic situation you detail what are the Tory/Cameron policies to deal with with nations finances. According to all I’ve read the Tories apart from Ken Clarke accept the present GDP/Public Spending situation. And if the Tories mood music includes repeal of the Fox Hunting Act you will be in trouble !!
88. I didn’t know that. Who is the Kanzleramtschef?
93. The head of the chancellor’s office. It will be Norbert Röttgen of the CDU and he will have Cabinet rank.
71 I wouldn’t - it sullies the brand.
94. Will he vote in the Cabinet?
Thanks for the responses this time!
As skilled campaigners as the lib dems are, I feel a livelier contest between labour and tory will chip away at their support. Soft tories returning to the fold, labour protest voters returning to labour, perhaps because blair will be gone, partly because they will fear a new tory government. I guess the major hope for the lib dems is trying to squeeze the labour vote even harder in seats they hold and where the tories are challenging. But, is it really possible to squeeze those votes any harder?
95 Tory Boy. How do you view a David Cameron led Conservative Party ?
75 - You are correct in that there could be a squeeze on the Lib Dem vote in Lab/Con marginals but the effect of a sharper Lab/Con battle in Lib Dem seats and marginals would I think on balance help them to keep and even gain seats . The added complication is boundary changes where it is unclear who the contest is between Birmingham Hall Green and Hampstead/Kilburn are possible examples . In these seats the best campaigns and even bar charts may be decisive .
Telegraph article at http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/10/10/ntory10.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/10/10/ixnewstop.html claims extra support for Cameron, Fox and Davis (1 each) and states that following their latest canvassing of Tory MPs, the total stands at Davis 70, Cameron 33, Clarke “mid-20s”, Fox 31, Rifkind 8.
Undue pessimism from Tories here. We all know how badly the’ve done in the last three elections yadda yadda; but I think we should remember just how UNPOPULAR Labour were in the last election. They got the smallest vote of a winning party in living memory. And that’s with the best (or most electable, Tory-lite) leader they have ever had. The Tories won a majority of votes in England.
I’m not saying ‘one more heave’ - what i am saying is that the people are casting about for an alternative to Labour. They are bored. Imagine four more years of Ruth Kelly, Gordon Brown, David Blunkett, Alan Milburn, the gorge rises at the thought. Labour are ripening on the vine….
The Tories have to place themselves to catch the protest vote. DC is admirably equipped to do that; they shouldn’t worry about rightwing voters peeling off to UKIP or whatever, i just can’t see that happening in a big way, especially with a solidly eurosceptic candidate (i.e, not Clarke). Boundary changes by the next election will also reduce the problem of bias. The economy will either be faltering by the next GE, or it will cease to matter quite so much as people will be used to relative prosperity. This next election is VERY winnable, I sense the country aching for the Tories to get with it, and give some decent opposition. the media coverage of DC shows that.
I also predict that next election, The Sun will switch to the Tories. they nearly did this time. Things are stacking up.
96. Yes. One of the prerequisites for coalition negotiations was the one partner would not be able to outvote the other. Who will take on the jobs is still not clear. Peter Struck has denied that he will become the foreign minister.
87 - Hmm. Strange how the argument over which party is best placed to reform the public services flips seamless from one to the other depending over which party is in power and failing to do so
Remember how in 1997 it was only a Labour Party that could reform the NHS? (the old “Nixon in China” argument”)
92 - Like a politician I am going to avoid answering that (tax) question because a) it’s time I got back to work and b) I was, admittedly, generalising. In fact my original point was deliberately a generalisation - namely that a Tory government should result in a low(er) tax economy than a Labour government (including NuLab).
Would a repeal of the Hunting Bill really send the wrong signals? I’m a 24 year old Londoner whose closest experience of blood sports is seeing greyhounds run around Catford stadium. I have nothing in common with fox hunting types but see no reason why they should be stopped. I don’t think many centrist/floating voters would take any notice of a repeal.
101 - the Sun did not come close to backing the Tories this time. You should examine the current situation with the electoral system a bit more closely.
104.”I have nothing in common with fox hunting types but see no reason why they should be stopped.”
maybe because foxes don’t like so much to be killed becuase Camilla doesn’t find anything else to do that afternoon?
Would you like if I’ll start to hunt some tories when I have nothing to do? Just for fun!
101 - and some undue optimism from some Conservatives on here also , sean . Like the boy who cried wolf , Conservatives have been foretelling doom and gloom for the economy since 1997 and the country turning to the Conservatives as a result but I think you are the first to suggest that the Conservatives may win because the economy will be sound and the electorate used to prosperity .
101 seanT. The problem when things stack up, is that some bugger or event pushes the stack over. I understand the enthusiasm of some Tories to find someone/anyone to take on TB/GB but relying on NuLab to blow it or a shiny new button to dazzle the electorate isn’t enough. Also I don’t think the country is “aching for the Tories to get with it”. Don’t mistake the temporary media buzz for anything other than what it is - what the media give the media can take away. There’s nothing more they like than building up a hero to rubbbish the new toy in due course. Beware the fair weather friends in the street of shame and beyond !!
98 Hi Jack, I’m genuinely uncertain - but I would certainly respect the outcome and knuckle back down.
I continue to believe his speech has been ridiculously over hyped (It was good rather than ‘fantastic’)and that his price is too short, but he does appear to be doing it for a large number of people at the moment.
There again, so was Clarke this time last week……….
I believe his campaign is being run very astutely (hats off to them)and that his skillset from a previous life are standing him in good stead.
All a bit too stage managed for choice for me, but I guess with my man on the backfoot I would say that wouldn’t I.
I think that next Tuesday will tell us everything we need to know.
If Rifkind hasn’t pulled away from the competition by then, he will get slotted. I think that if KC is then in 4th place, he will walk too.
If Rifkind has already walked by then, either KC or LF are going to get chipped out.
Whilst not absolutely transferable KC will trend to DC, LF’s to DD
Just wonder at that stage (when the dirty deals get done)whether DC
runs the risk of getting the Portillo treatment.
Certainly at the moment, he looks a very dangerous opponent to get in the final.
Even though (as previously ) I like LF, I think DD would be home and dry were he to get him in the run off.
Was v nervous over the weekend concerning possible DD defections. It doesn’t appear to have happened, immediate crisis averted !
104 - Julian, you’re missing the point re foxhunting. Its not the libertarian argument per se, it’s that foxhunting is uniquely associated within the public’s mind with all the negatives that go with the Tories. Now that might be unfair, but “supporting braying chinless wonders - the unspeakable in pursuit of the uneatable” is a PR gift to Labour and in a stroke would undo any good work that DC or whoever might have done in making the Tories look modern or relevant.
Andy @ 100 - That leaves 30 undecided,if they split
DD 10, Dc10, KC 5, LF 2, MR 3
Then totals would be
DD 80, DC 43, LF 33, KC 31, MR 11
Suggest that without MR (and no changes mid stream)would give:
DD 80 (+0) DC 46 (+3) KC 39 (+8) LF 33 (+0)
How would the Fox vote split?
O/T Robin Cook tribute on BBc Parliament at the mo.
110 - Yuh I do appreciate that but I’m not entirely convinced it would become a large enough issue to do damage.
Andrea - do you therefore support the banning of all hunting of any animals worldwide? Personally I don’t see what’s wrong with chasing an animal and killing it - this is exactly what happens in the animal kingdom. I have a problem with drawn-out cruelty - ie. the kind employed in the fur industry and in the farming of (battery) chickens.
Assuming that DD and DC get through ultimately, it seems to me absolutely crucial who goes out first out of LF and KC. If LF then DD will probably have huge momentum to take to the membership. If KC then DC will look very strong.
111 Almost totally transferable to DD I would suggest
110 - OTOH we were helped a great deal in some marginals (The Wrekin springs to mind) by members of the Countryside Alliance. I doubt many people who are pationatly anti would ever vote Tory anyway. Its not a big issue but I don’t think a commitment to bring it back would really harm us a great deal. It shouldn’t be a priority but I would definately want to see it brought back.
Icarus @ 111,
Fox vote - finger-in-the-air guess - 20 to Davis, 10 to Cameron, 3 to Clarke?
That would give DD 100, DC 56, KC 42
(Your first round guess isn’t too far off of mine :-). Yours: 80/43/33/31/11; mine: 77/45/41/25/10).
Following my first round guess, I’d go DD 79/ DC 48/ LF 42/ KC 29 in the second ballot and DD 85/ DC 65/ LF 48 in the third.
As I’m pro-Davis, I actually prefer your guess
104 Julian. I’m working too
I think the hunting topic is iconic to many on left and right. However this mood music is important - if the Tories give the impression that they’re as worried about the Cottesmore Hunt as Christ’s Hospital they’ll reinforce all the NuLab stereotypes about them … Eton and all !!
I’ve not been hunting since I was a young teenager ….. a few years ago (not)
but I’d rather it was a matter of individual choice than law.
113-Julian H, yes and I voted Greens the last time I voted.
Now I’ve to go…Jack, please, behave well! (how is Ken’s leadership bid going? Has he more chances than Glenda’s leadership bid?
114 (con)
Scenario 1: Round 2 DD 75 DC 50 KC 40 LF 35, Round 3 DD 100, DC65 KC 35
Scenario 2: Round 2 DD 75 DC 50 LF 40 KC 35, Round 3 DD 80 DC 80 LF 40
113, 116 - well, be my guest but don’t say I didn’t warn you
If the Tories brought up Fox hunting - I would be very surprised. As far as I am aware Fox hunting is going on just as before. There certainly has been no talk of redundancies in Leicestershire - remember how the countryside was going to grind to a halt if the bill went through?!!
There is no point in bring it up again.
There appears to have been some confusion - I was referring to DOCTOR LIAM
109 Tory Boy. Many thanks for that. I’m more conviced than ever that DD has enough in the bank to make the final two against DC , with DD still with a handy lead over Cameron. However if the media/DC love-in continues, and I expect it to for now, then Cameron will comfortably win the run-off at least 2/1 !!
110 Tabman. I do worry when we agree
119 Andrea. I fear that our Ken has been swept away in the Cameron tidal wave. Perhaps the hustings offer hope, but I’m not overly confident.
122 - are the anti-Fox hunting protesters still in a job, or have they given up?
110 Tabman, as someone with 5 chins I feel well qualified to reply on this !
Whether one approves of Fox Hunting or not ( I personally don’t have any objections but would prefer they shot the bloody things for choice !) it’s a social event enjoyed by predominantly upper class people which supports rural economies.
It was a civil liberty, enjoyed for centuries that has been denied to people as a result of an arbitary and ‘class war’ decision by an opinionated small minority of people who were intent on imposing their view of right or wrong on others who were doing nothing illegal.
Without (intending to !) reopen other strands of debate this anti libertarianism also manifests itself in ongoing legislation around smoking, ID cards, dispersal zones and detention without charge.
As a ‘pragmatic’ libertarian struggling to rationalise a consistent position on all of these things I have to question whether the incessant erosion of these freedoms is a healthy thing.
Fox Hunting is but a minor thread on a bigger tapestry …. pull at it and the whole thing begins to unravel.
Cheers
Afraid I dont know when the season begins - about now? I would have thought that the protesters kept quiet before the election but might get active again soon.
Actually the anti-hunt lobby has been stuffed by Blair - When the hunt gathers, the hunt just says we are not hunting just riding round the countryside - they havent broken the law until they catch a fox (and if there was a big anti-hunt group then probably they would just let the fox go until next time).
127 - I’m not sure you can really say they have been “stuffed” - after all there were always wise voices cautioning that any hunt bill would be unenforceable. You can’t ban people riding around the countryside!
115 Almost totally transferable to DD I would suggest
I’m not so sure. Fox’s vote includes a core of “right-wingers who don’t like Davis” who would probably swallow Cameron and possibly (but less likely) Clarke over Davis.
116 - some Tory MPs are anti-fox hunting. Are you suggesting they don’t vote Conservative?
In reply to the fox-hunting thing - I’m a 24 year old city-dweller from the north, and also a Tory who strongly opposes the Government’s unfortunate obsession over huntin. However, let’s be practical about it, hunting is still going on (after a fashion) and it would be a colossal tactical error for the Conservative party to introduce it as an election issue.
100 et al - The article actually says that Fox is on 21 - curious how a typo can lead to all manner of secondary speculation :).
Assuming that the figures of DD 70, DC 33, KC “mid-20s”, LF 21 and MR 8 are roughly accurate, I’d say that the split in likely to favour LF and DC. DD, as far as we know, is reasonably stable but is unlikely to attract genuine undecideds. KC seems to have a strong core but (sadly) it looks unlikely that he will attract much more.
Sticking my neck out then:
1st round:
DD mid-70s, DC mid-40s, KC mid-30s, LF mid-30s, MR c.10
2nd round:
DD mid-70s, DC 50ish, KC 40ish, LF mid-30s.
3rd round:
DD 90ish, DC mid-60s, KC mid-40s.
Shortly of tactical voting, I think Davis would be hard pressed to keep Cameron out of the race. If Fox goes out second, he might be able to get a bit more momentum, but is likely to ultimately lose at the members’ ballot. If Clarke goes out second, Davis is potentially in real trouble as Cameron will appear to be getting stronger and stronger. Personally, I feel that Clarke will survive the second cut (Fox going out) as many more of Rifkind’s supporters will transfer to Clarke than to Fox.
Edit: It should of course say “Short of tactical voting” after the predictions. Even then, Davis will find it extremely tough to keep both Cameron and Clarke out of the final ballot, as the one’s votes are likely to transfer to the other.
All the scenarios above have Davis well ahead. If that is really true, couldn’t he afford to “lend” support to Fox to get the only opponent who, according to the YouGov poll, he is likely to beat in a run-off? Am I being overly cynical? Maybe it is too blatent but his team could just say, “a few of DD’s supporters peeled off due to seeing Fox had a chance - it is sad but there you go.”
132: Oops.
On the tactical voting front, rumour has it that about 5 of IDS’s supporters voted Clarke in order to exclude Portillo. If so, it’s ironic that nothing changed (swap 5 votes from KC to IDS and Portillo is still out by one vote: 59/54/53 becomes 54/59/53).
I also encountered a rumour recently that 5 KC supporters voted tactically in the 97 election 1st ballot in order to ensure that Lilley and Howard were removed as the most credible right-wing candidates. If they voted for Hague in order to do so (seeing Redwood as unlikely) and gave him his original momentum …
Tory MPs shouldn’t vote tactically. They don’t seem to do it very well
131. “it would be a colossal tactical error for the Conservative party to introduce it as an election issue”
I agree. I wasn’t suggesting mentioning it at an election, more just doing it. As we know you don’t have to have the former for the latter.
‘134 All the scenarios above have Davis well ahead.’ In my view mistakenly. If the first round is at all disappointing, of if the numbers drop after that, I think the final round could be a lot closer than any of these figures show.
136 - fair point. I’m not sure that even after winning the 2009 election (ahem) the Tories should revisit the issue, but just having the opportunity to do so would do me…
For those who are interested I have today declared for David Cameron and should soon be added to his list of supporters at http://www.cameroncampaign.org/comments_supporters/supporters.html
The first day with the House sitting here at Westminster has been fascinating with the place alive with rumours and gossip. Some I dare not post here but I have heard from two sources that Rifkind is considering pulling out BEFORE the first ballot. His support would be likely to go to Cameron or Clarke.
More later….
139 Thanks Rik, can’t say that Rifkind dropping out would be a monumental shock .. perhaps he’s been reading our scribings !!
Pressure immediately on KC & Foxy if this is true…………
139 - that’s old news, it was leaked on here days ago
135 - the story i read was that the KC supporters in ‘97 voted Redwood in round 1
139 - BTW in what capacity are you currently at Westminster?
142 - I am working here for an MP!
139. Wow, whatever next Pope is a Catholic shocker?
Davis on 508 now. Home office minister just made an incredibly weak joke.
Are there still sentient tories who think that DD is the man? Please explain. The last time we had an effective PM who was a poorer speaker than most of his colleagues was …. Clem Attlee. Are we due another? Get real.
143 - Any jobs going?
Rik W - where are you listed on Cameron’s website? Not being funny but everyone else on that list appears to either hold elected office, be a local chairman or else be a former PPC. If you are an MP’s research assistant surely you won’t qualify?
143 which one? Paul Burstow?