More poll gloom for David Davis
October 10th, 2005-
How big a mountain has the former front runner got to climb?
A Populus Poll in the Times in the morning has more gloomy news for David Davis with big falls on previous surveys by the same pollster. It follows the same trend as the recent YouGov and ICM polls which have all recorded a big switch to David Cameron in recent days.
Back in July the same pollster had Davis beating Cameron by 50 to 16% - so there has been a huge turnround. Amongst non-Tories the polls had Cameron with a 12 point lead.
Unlike the YouGov survey which was restricted to known party members the Populus polls has a much broader sample so might not be as relevant to those trying to call the race. The numbers, however, are in the same area.
The survey itself was carried out at the weekend when the Cameron hype in the media was at its highest. It might be that once this settles down then the numbers might change.
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The challenge for the Davis camp is that the task of getting their declared MP supporters to vote for him in a week’s time might be more challenging if the numbers remain so far down.
The main message from this is that even if Davis gets to the final two he’s got a big fight on his hands unless there is a dramatic change in support levels.
Latest Leadership Betting - 0600 BST
Best betting exchange prices; Cameron 0.86/1: Davis 2.4/1: Clarke 8.4/1: Fox 9.5/1
Best bookmaker prices; Cameron 8/13: Davis 15/8: Clarke 6/1: Fox 10/1
Mike Smithson
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Oh dear, we’re dredging up polls of very poor predictive value again. Maybe this Cameron story is “running out of steam”?? Certainly, the betting markets would agree. Momentum is with Davis.
While I can’t deny Cameron as a front-runner, with two months to go, this race is much wider than indicated by comments from this forum.
Two weeks ago, everyone wanted Eriksson out as England boss. Today, no-one would dream of it. I rest my case.
remember everyone that the actual leader is decleared till december still a long way to go. Considering he has been favourite since may, to only have a slip up now in october is not to bad from davis. I think he got lucky in his timing. its happened while he can still recover.
i also think the water will go out on cameron in the next few weeks. I mean seriously the guy has been an mp for 4 year and 3 months. how can he expect to command the respect of his party.
if the tories ruin another youg hopeful like they did hague then they will find themselves in a worse position in 4 years time.
my advice bet on davis while his values good. When he is ahead on the first ballot the fickel media will be talking him up again.
The way the polls are changing so quickly will only encourage MP’s to go on their own instincts on who would make the best leader. One week Clarke is the popular choice, next week after one speech, Cameron is the popular choice from nowhere.
With a week to go until the first round, MP’s will not be looking at polls, but more to who they really want as leader - who over the next four years has the best chance of moving us into position for a conservative victory. Who can unite the party, put forward the right policy mix and appeal to the key switch voters.
For me that is DD, but DC is running him close.
Re 1. This is not “dredging up” - it is the lead story in the Times this morning. I also make the point that the Populus survey is “not as relevant” as the YouGov one.
Re 2. There might be a case for not betting on DC at current prices which have moved sharply back. The best bet seems to be to “lay” David Davis because it’s hard to see how he can win the membership ballot. The only person he is exceeding in the polling is Liam Fox and unless there is a Fox-David run off the Shadow Home Secretary looks doomed.
re 3. The polls are not changing so quickly. They are all going in one direction. ICM, YouGov and now Populus are reporting the same trend - a big move away from David Davis.
In terms of managing the media in this campaign the DD camp has a lot to learn. Maybe it’ll get better as we get nearer to December but there seems to be no real understanding of what is required.
DD blew the biggest speech of his life because he did not recognise its importance in the party - not a good quality for a prospective party leader.
4 - My point is that just before conference KC was the ‘popular ‘ choice who tory MP’s would have been ‘mad’ not to choose. One speech later DC is the ‘popular ‘ choice who tory MP’s would be ‘mad’ not to choose. I think MP’s will trust their own judgement not polls.
Your figures in 1 - ” Cameron 33% (+30): Clarke 33% (-22): Davis 12% (-4) and Fox 7% ” and your analysis in 4 don’t quite match - ” The polls are not changing so quickly. They are all going in one direction. ICM, YouGov and now Populus are reporting the same trend - a big move away from David Davis. ” The big move is away from last months favourite KC to this months DC.
DD obviously made a huge mistake with his speech. Sidelining Conway and using Green, Kirkbride etc. to help with the media will help.
Two months to go…
The momentum is with Davis?? What betting market are you looking at? As a Libdem I know all about presentation of figures but I usually try and use ones that don’t say the precise opposite of what I am claiming….
Funny comment by Alice Thompson in the Telegraph (as part of a “questions Cameron must answer”) -
Party unity: There is no point in winning if he cannot keep the party together. He must show not only that he can lead, but that he would also use Derek Conway’s gifts as a whip as well as Michael Gove’s talents as an orator.
most people are still calling for the sacking of sven, despite england qualifying for the world cup. but im not sure what that has to do with the leadership race anyway. you just appear to be desperately clutchign at straws.
whilst yes it is true to say that there is movement from KC to DC, the reason for htis movement is intrinsicly linked to movement from DD to KC. this is why a lay for davis is the best bet, most of the momentum appears to be against him, rather then specifically for a candidate..
Jon 6. You are not saying, are you, that sometimes the Lib Dems present figures in a misleading way? That is an admission.
I would love to take part in an election where the Lib Dems do NOT produce their distorted bar charts. Surely, at some stage, this is going to be counter-productive
re 7. If Cameron does win the first Tory MP he should get on his side is Derek Conway.
The momentum is with Davis?????
Nice of your to join us Mr Conway!
“he would also use Derek Conway’s gifts as a whip ”
Put him in charge of one of GDubbya’s international torture squads in Iraq maybe? Some of us remember Mr C from his days as Tory leader on Tyne & Wear county council. He doesn’t seem to have matured too well in the meantime.
4 Mike - you must understand why some of us did take a big sigh when we saw the topic heading (though we love you and your website to bits !!)
It would be something of a banner headline to read :
“Mike Smithson is pro Davis bias storm ” !
Kind regards
TB
9 - OT but of anecdotal note…I’ve found in my line of work that ordinary people (i.e. the kind of people that don’t get too excited about Excel spreadsheets) actually have difficulty with interpreting bar and line charts (and I’m talking here about the very common varieties here, not the really s*xy predictive ones produced by, say, financial institutions).
Not too sure of the point I’m trying to make but I suspect that the ‘Only the LibDems can win here’ strapline is actually the stronger part of the message with the dodgy graphs mere mood music.
8 Ade
What evidence is there to support your assertion that there is movement from DD to KC please ?
Mike,
In the article, it says “However, Mr Davis has made no real headway, boosting his rating by only four points to 12 per cent”
So it’s Clarke down22%, Cameron up30%, Davis up4%.
So the momentum is away from Clarke and to Cameron (largely) and to Davis (to a far lesser extent).
Davis is up from 8% to 12%
I’m with the first two commentators - there’s a long way to go. Nevertheless, the betting market is a little like any other financial market. When there’s a big change in values, you never know whether it’s likely to reverse, or continue. What isn’t likely is that Cameron will now remain at about 55-60% in the betting markets until the second round of voting. Either MPs will start to move over, the momentum will continue, and his opponents will be trounced or even drop out before they have to; or everyone will remember that the guy just doesn’t have the political experience (I still think) and go back to Davis or possibly Clarke. Now there’s a testable prediction you can quote back to me when I’m wrong!
That’s not a prediction that he’ll necessarily be a lousy failure as leader if elected. How he does will depend more on the state of the British economy than on his abilities.
re 16. According to Anthony Wells Davis has dropped 4% not increased it. This appears to be a mistake. See http://www.yougov.com/interactive/blogIntro.asp?jID=3&sID=4&kID=http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=75
Anthony notes .“The Times reports this is David Davis being up four points. However, last month’s Populus figures clearly have him on 16%, so there is a mistake at one end or the other.
I’ve checked with the Populus site - Anthony is right and the Times is wrong. Davis is down 4% on the month.
See http://www.populuslimited.com/
DD is by far the least inspirational candidate. That would not stop him being an effective minister. He might be the most capable in the tory party, maybe even the best chancellor.
But thats not what this vote is about. The tories have 170 seats fewer than the social*sts. Someone has to capable of bridging that gap. Its not about one uninspiring speech—its about no inspiring ones. As a shadow minister, he has been at his best when he has been careful, polite, dooged and well organised. He has shrewdly unpicked Nulab bluster, won some scalps, and he will do so again.
My view is that any tory MP who votes for DD cannot see the wood for the trees. The question he should ask himself is: would Sun readers vote for him? If the answer is ‘let them wait til they hear what DD has to say’, that MP should return to planet earth immediately.
I think Davis has fallen among Tory voters, but risen among the public as a whole, over the past month.
Having previously said DD was a shoo-in, I hesitate to comment from beneath the egg on face. But it does appear that the best strategy for DD’s team, if they are not more high-minded than their reputation suggests, is to discreetly encourage some people who were wavering between them and Fox to stay with Fox. A skim down the Telegraph survey of floating voters suggests that Fox is within a handful of votes behind Cameron. DD said he wouldn’t encourage this sort of thing, but when he said that he didn’t look as though he’d need it.
Our Genial Host doesn’t pretend to have no opinions of his own about who would be the best leader. He’s perfectly entitled to be positive about Cameron and negative about Davies if he likes - much as I disagree with him at the moment!
Please David Kendrick - New Labour are not socialists. Social democrats they may be, but they are hardly pushing rights for strikers or nationalising things, and they’re making benefits more conditional. I know they’re doing some progressive things too but socialists?
Good to see further demonstration of the usual “media can’t judge the effect of a party conference upon the general public for toffee syndrome”
2003 - the IDS’ last conference. Tories leap in the polls
2005 - great conference for the Tories, onwards and upwards to power. Er… Tories slump in the polls
I’m with Mike on this. It’s perfectly reasonable to lead on this story which, as he says, heads today’s Times and shows new statistical evidence to support the belief on here that the momentum is with DC and against DD.
DC is not simply “the new KC” as he does not have problem of being so divisive and is thus finding it easier to pick up Parliamentary support.
Come on people, we can do better than generalising criticisms like “there’s a long way to go”.
18.
Ah. Sorry. Didn’t realise that the actual polls were up, so I followed the link to the Times.
Sean Fear is right. Among all voters, Clarke is down 16% to 25%, Cameron up 16% to 18%, Davis up 2% to 12%.
This probably reflects increased recognition amongs the Davis’s, coupled with the speeches. It does (coupled with the ICM poll) give legs to the “Clarke ahead through recognition” argument.
Sean 20. The full figures are not available yet but Populus is usually pretty good about making this available. If Andrew Cooper - head of the company - is reading this it would be great to have some clarification.
Amongst all voters in September Populus gave Davis a rating of 10% and DC one of 2%
For 25, read “increased recognition among the David’s”
… sigh.
(By the way, I put “has a look” and “eats words” in triangular brackets above. )
Not very helpful of the labour MPs is it!
“The stakes were raised yesterday when a discussion of drugs and crime at Question Time on the first day of the new parliamentary season prompted Labour heckles about “Cannabis Cameron” and other witticisms” - Todays Guardian
Doing something radical about drugs would be something really worthwhile but Cameron wont be the first to have come a cropper on this particular hurdle.
This probably reflects increased recognition amongs the Davis’s, coupled with the speeches
I think more the reporting of the speeches, which of course is crucial (there really aren’t that many people who will have actually watched them). Of course this is only relevant if you think either the tone of media was very wrong (in which case people’s minds might change if they see more first hand evidence) or if you think the media are going to change their tune.
So Nick at 21, would you do something so underhand as you suggest Davis might do, and encourage supporters not to support you tactically? You discuss it very neutrally!
If the Davis people were to suggest tactical voting for Fox, they’d need to be careful not to add to the sense of momentum against Davis. Sure, if it pushed Cameron (or Clarke) out that would increase Davis’ chances, but if MPs’ public protestations of support for Davis looked unwilling and / or support was seen to be draining further from him, Davis might find even more MPs deserting him. And anyway, aren’t campaigns like this far to unpredictable to make calculations like that?
28. One of yesterday’s exchange in the Commons:
Cheryl Gillian: “Over half of all our prisoners admit their offences are committed . . . (when) drug-taking”. ”
Dennis Skinner: “Aye, but not Cameron.”
Can we get over this idea that Hague was ruined because he “went for it too young”.
1. He’s hardly ruined. He still makes effective interventions in the Commons, great Conference speeches, and - most importantly - he’s still only mid 40s, with a lot of political life left. He would be in the next Shadow Cabinet if he wanted; he might even be leader again one day. In the meantime he’s amassed millions. If that’s ruined, bring it on.
2. The reason Hague lost the 2001 election was not because he was too young, but because the election was unwinnable. Labour were still quite New and shiny, the economy was doing well, the Tories were still reeking of defeat and slease: a genetic hybrid of JFK, Margaret Thatcher, Abraham Lincoln and Elizabeth the First would have lost that election. Baseball cap or no baseball cap; Hague’s youth and inexperience was by the by.
Attacks on Cameron’s youth are equally absurd. To continue the footballing metaphor, its like me ringing up Sven and urging him not to play Rooney because the lad is too young and immature, and tells silly jokes. Sven would reply in his Nordic monotone: you play your best player. Rooney is world class.
Likewise, Cameron is our best player for this position right now. So we play him.
My concern is - what if Fox goes out in round two. Could some of his supporter’s who would normally back Davis, back Clarke just to stop Cameron?
I think this could cause big problems for the youngster - although people might argue KC would beat DD in a run-off I am not at all convinced he would.
Andy/Sean. The all voter question was “Which one of the following possible candidates do you think would make the best leader for the Conservative Party?” Not “Which one of the following possible candidates would make you most likely to vote for the Conservative Party?”
So I don’t really think you can read anything into it as those who never would vote Tory are more likely to go for the most unsuitable candidate and may have been influenced by the “disaster” the media portrayed Davis’ week as.
Agreed James M - whereas once Cameron was the stop-Clarke candidate (i.e. DD fans voting Cameron because they were sure he could beat Cameron whereas he might not Clarke), now we see Clarke as the stop Cameron candidate. FWIW I went to a Tory meeting last night and the room split third Clarke, third Cameron, third Fox. Very, very, very few DD fans left at all. Mostly a drive for a C-C dream ticket!
Whilst it might be 2 mths until the final vote, in a matter of a couple of weeks we will be down to 2 - so not plenty of time. I am concerned at DD’s poor media skills/presentation - how would he get our message across as Leader. I think the only candidate with a ‘anyone but’ vote is now KC - I would suspect that KC would run DD close if they were the final 2, in which case expect some of the ‘right’ to switch to DC to ensure KC is not in the final 2. Fox is still my 1st choice, but DC is a close 2nd - I actually think he could win an election for us - and thats what most members want
34 - I think you’d need a stronger question if you wanted to be surer of getting people’s political preferences out of. Something like “Regardless of your view of the Conservative party, which leader do you think would get the best election result for it?”
32 - sean, sean, sean … and there was me thinking tht football was a sport where ability diminishes over time, and politics a vocation that has to be learned and where the protaganists benefit by experience!
38. Tabman, your MP should have enough experience, right? You should switch and support him for the sake of the country.
38. Tabman, your MP should have enough experience, right? You should switch and support him for the sake of the country.
Andy at 34,
?
Should we keep that in mind when looking at the Ken Clarke figures then
39 - Andrea, Ken has more than enough support from other constituents; I’m sure he is generous enough to allow me to offer mine to promising newcomers
So why didn’t Rooney play on Saturday if he is our best player?
He was suspended
43. A la Hague, a previous cock up took him out of the race.
43 - ‘Cos Sven’s a muppet and genuinely believes Crouch to be a better player?
44 - Exactly!
because he was suspended…
32 - The economy was doing well in 2001 ????? Most Conservative posters on this site have been saying that the economy was in a disastrous state ever since Labour was elected in 1997
39/40 Andrea. You’ve got Tabman switching twice there, does that mean he’s back cooking up dodgy bar charts, instead of backing our Ken?
BTW 1. Populus figures for voting intentions move away from the Tories, despite the conference. I’d have thought they’d have had a bounce :
Lab 40% +3
Con 30% -5
LibDem 21% +1
Others 9% +1
BTW 2. Have just watched the raising of the Mary Rose anchor - amazing sight, almost entirely intact and about 15′ in length.
Wasn’t a spell in the Whip’s office obligatory for Tory leaders ? Are we underestimating the quasi-masonic clout that this gives DD ? Are rhetorical questions valid etc etc ?
Completely off-thread - following on from the Liberia elections today, anybody know if there are any betting markets on the Zanzibar / Tanzania elections at the end of October. Have just come back from holiday there, and the Union should easily go to the CCM, but Zanzibar Island looks like being much closer. Realise that this is somewhat unlikely, but always worth an ask!
47 - are you suggesting that DC might be suspended for something?
50 - did it look the same as when you saw it on the day the ship was launched?
What is the difference between the Mary Rose’s anchor and the Conservative Party. One is an old relic from a bygone age, and the other is a lump of wood.
Tabman - no only that young players do stupid things every now and then!
21 I sense heated incoming from AHM at the very suggestion !
49 - “Most Conservative posters on this site have been saying that the economy was in a disastrous state ever since Labour was elected in 1997″
That’s simply not true. The general Tory argument is that Brown inherited an economy on the up-turn and naturally in a very good state. The BofE have prudently managed interest rates but the Chancellor’s imprudence (specifically post-2001) means we are now facing a decline. (Note: I am not trying to kick off this argument, but pointing out what the Tory argument is - which is not what Mark Senior has stated).
49. What I and I’m sure many other posters have suggested about the economy is that Brown is creating major long term difficulties which are not visable to the average man in the street. These are gradually becoming apparent but by the time the full implications become clear, he’ll be long gone. He also had a £25 billion wandfall from the mobile phone licences which helped at around that time.
58 & 59 - and more to the point how does he know what Tory posters have been saying since 1997. The sites only been running for 18 Months!
does it matter that even Cameron himself admits he’s never taken a big political decision in his life?
54 Tabman.
Yes and to think there were no bloody Liberals around at the time …. oh happy days 
59 - Woody, I’m no fan of GB, but remember too that Thatcher had North Sea Oil revenues to spend on unemployment benefit
and a consumption boom fuelled by credit deregulation (followed by a spectacular recession).
59 woody. Of course the Tories never flogged any of the “family silver” did they !!
62 - naughty Jack - I’m told you had a diamond poaster proclaiming “Mary Rose - sinking here!”
30 - I agree wholeheartedly.
Tactical voting by Davis people for Fox would be disasterous. Surely Davis wants Fox out before Clarke or Cameron so that in a three horse race he comes really far ahead (united right, split left) and has a big fat “momentum” moment.
I can’t see that tactical voting among MPs would benefit ANY candidate. Davis can’t risk losing any votes for any reason, tactical or not - if he gets less actual votes than pledges at any stage its going to be a disasterous headline - a perception will be created he has been stabbed in the back and the only way to try and dispel that would be for Conway & Co to frantically brief the press that they had asked supporters to tactically vote - which would look underhand.
63 - Jack, we’re at it again - fools never differ …
63 Tabman. I booking a appointment with my doctor !! Agreeing with you twice in 2 days is a serious cause for concern
58-60 Do you really want me to go through the archives and find the quotes , I really have better things to do LOL and Max yes the site has been only going some 18 months but many posts have referred often to earlier times including rather a lot to Jacobite pre computer times .
63,64 That money enabled the tories to take us to the 4th richest economy in the world. GB had robbed pensions, sold gold off at cut prices, continued to have bumper oil revenues and where are we in the world competetive league now?
1. What planet are you on, no one wants Eriksson out? Do you read any newspapers?
68 - resistance is useless … come over to the dark side …
70 woody. You sound very NuLabour - We spend to invest and they spend on faliure !! - Are you suffering from Cameronitis or a dose of the Cameroons ….. is that like a Maceroon !! Tories having their cake and eating it !!
69 Mark
SeanT - excellent post on the weakness of the argument that Cameron’s youth is a major problem.
In my personal opinion, Cameron may well turn out too young and perhaps he is too inexperienced for the role - that is a fair argument to make. What does not seem a coherent argument in my mind is that Cameron should be benched for a few years and then take over.
If the guy wants the job, we should not be responsible as a party for protecting his career at the detriment of the party as whole. If he is the best person for the job now and to fight the next election MPs, members everyone should choose him. If they want to protect him out of some naive desire to save him for later, we could find that as a political party we have another 4 years of waste behind us, have let the Lid Dems chase us down further and begun the journey to the political knackers yard.
On that subject another record trade deficit today…
73. How dare you call me nu labour. That’s the worst insult I’ve ever endured.
49 More Lib Dem spin Mark, absolute nonsense
“Most Conservative posters” on this site have acknowledged that
the economy has run (relatively)well since ‘97 (because of the Golden Legacy Brown inherited from us) but that it is now heading for the buffers at increasing speed (because of unduly high taxation, falling growth etc…).
69 - One won’t get far in life by making false accusations and then replying with a line such as “Do you really want me to go through the archives and find the quotes , I really have better things to do LOL”.
71 - Ha, exactly what I thought when I read it. Lazy football analogies are becoming commonplace on here. Conway - Roy Keane. Gary Linekar - Tony Blair. Graeme Le Saux - Hunky Dinky Dunky.
55 No don’t get it ! - Which is the lump of wood ?
79 Tory Boy. The planks in the Tombstone gang !!
BTW Today in 1974 Wilson was returned to office !!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/default.stm
Click “on this day”
My chief concern about Cameron is that he is essentially a clone of Tony Blair. On policy, this problem is not insurmountable: some wise advice by the more centre-right elements of his supporters (Osbourne, Vaizey et al.) might cause him to change; or he could institute radical change in any case once in the office. The real challenge is how he will benefit in comparison with the real thing. I appreciate that by 2009, it is likely to be Gordon Brown at No.10, but for at least the next two years if Cameron proves to be a pale shadow of Blair then he is hardly going to inspire.
However, we do need a centrist candidate to capture voters. Sadly, I think Ken’s chances are pretty much sunk :(.
80 Boom Boom !!
Think Wilson would have looked better posing in his Raincoat !
81. Remember Young Cardinals and old Popes.
I don’t buy the tactical voting analyses. They are too risky. The only ones that would make sense are Davisites voting for Clarke to give themselves a DC v KC run. But that could easily backfire. Similarly leftish Tory MPs backing Fox to keep him in after the second round to divide the right in the next round. On paper its possible but it could agin blow up in their faces.
The Cornerstone faction have talked about bloc voting tactically, but whether they will is doubtful. Assume that MPs will vote for who they want. Many regretted IDS winning by one vote, they won’t want to repeat an undesired outcome.
84 - and to think all this could be avoided with STV …
But Guido - what happens if Fox goes out second. Surely some of his supporters from the “right” of the party may consider voting KC, just to kick out DC at the next turn?
Then again I think some on the right do not like DD for his role in Maastrict - I heard Bill Cash say this to some activist in Blackpool - he could not vote DD because of what he did then.
84. Cornerstone won’t vote on bloc. They are not a cult.
87 woody. Does Edward Leigh know that !! he still hasn’t ruled himself out of the race
88. I think he’s on a bit of an ego trip. Bumped into him twice at conference. If only he knew.
69 Mark Senior Yes please. I await the details of your research with interest. It will be relatively easy for you, or so I assume, as you clearly have the data at your finger tips.
81. Why do you feel sorry for/about Ken Clarke? Amiable old coot that he is, he would have taken us into the euro, and would have signed the European Constitution. Indeed he would still do the second, given the chance - as he himself admits.
In other words, he would have signed over the rest of British sovereignty, to an undemocratic bureaucracy in a foreign country, given half the chance. This isn’t some minor peccadillo you can overlook, like, say, sucking on a spliff twenty years ago. This is probably the most fundamental question a politician can face, the outright destiny of his country, and KC has been diamatrically and obscenely wrong on the matter, for decades.
Moreover, he hasn’t even admitted he was wrong, even now, he just says the issue is ‘deferred’. A liking for jazz and an amiable disposition do not really make up for such a momunental and grotesque misjudgement, to put it kindly.
A Tory party that was so desperate for power it put this man on the throne would have sold its soul, and I, personally, would never vote for it again.
91 Sean T
Hear Hear / spot on !!
I heard that one or two cornerstone MPs will actually vote for KC. On another note I think Davis knows he would never beat Cameron in the members ballot but would be more competitive with either Fox or Clarke in the final two. If he’s on around 70 after the first ballot look for several Davis supporters to push the Clarke and Fox vote up in the second ballot to try and squeeze out Cameron at this stage.
91/92 seanT/Tory Boy. Tell us who was in power when this drift to European centralization was happening in the 80’s and 90’s ?? …. surely not the old bird from Finchley and Mr Y fronts !!
91, 92: http://www.mtholyoke.edu/~ebarnes/python/dead-parrot.htm.
Replace the word “parrot” with “European issue”. That’s why I backed IDS four years ago but want Clarke to win now.
93 Andy. I’ve got 3 of the T gang on my list for our Ken !
91 - sean, do you think there are many like you out there in the country?
Rifkind withdraws - Daily Politics
Sky news suggests Rifkind’s pulled out. Sorry if that’s old news.
Shock Horror news.
Rifkind withdraws. I’m sitting here in disbelief.
GB gets some stick/credit for a couple of big actions he has taken as chancellor. One is selling our gold at the bottom of the market (an expensive error) , the other was selling 3rd generation mobile phone licences at the very top of the market (well done).
These were completely random; he is not a trader The one he got right was a fluke, the wrong one was just unlucky. But tory chancellors are not traders either, and their decisions would be just as random.
I make the point merely because his supporters tend to quote one, and his critics the other one…
So who will get Rifkind’s backing??? Clarke or Cameron…..
98/99/100 Modesty forbids ……. you heard it here first on pb.com a few weeks back
You should always come to me for your news !!
I think the old duck Nuala saw the writing on the wall
When’s the first round of voting, and apart from MR himself (who will presumaly vote KC) where will his “entourage” go?
101. The mobile phone licences were being sold anyway. He did nothing to engineer the amounts it was sold for.
The gold was sold under no pressure and euros were bought. Were these bought for political reasons?
Does Sir Malcolm pulling out not bring the date of the final round a week closer? (excuse my ignorance, I really should know how this is all going to work)
104 Tabman. Nominations close Thursday, 1st round following Thursday. Mal’s vote will split between our Ken and DC with our Ken the main beneficary of the 8 votes
97. Do I think there are many like me out there in the country? Er, you bet your flipping butt I do, certainly in the ranks of Tory voters or possible Tory voters. Europe is still a huge issue for us; its gone away for the moment; it will be back.
Europe is also a major bugbear of four vitally important newspapers - The Times, The Telegraph, The Sun, the Mail - I write for them all, they are all fiercely eurosceptic. KC as Tory leader would have massive problems with all these crucial newspapers.
You may think we eurosceptics are nutters or obsessives, maybe we are. But we are also the people who kept Britain out of the euro. If it hadn’t been for us, the papers we read and work for, the votes we represent and canvass, Blair would have gone for it, and we’d be in German style stagnation by now.
Likewise, its us wot won the war on the EU Constitution. Because of us, the eurosceptics, the vocal nutter on the sceptic newspapers, Blair had to promise a referendum. Because he promised a referendum, Chirac had to do the same - with the result we all know. the Constitution died because of us, me, my friends and fellow eurosceptics. I’m proud of the tiny part i played in that battle.
But the war goes on.
Apart from that KC is a smug git as well. Even if he is quite charming.
94 Sadly Madrid was Maggie’s darkest hour.
Maastrict was a defining moment (no I’m not delerious about Davis’ involvment as whip !!)for the chump with the blue pants for which we as a party have paid a very great price/sacrifice.
Having finally reunited around on a very eurorealist platform it would be beyond comprehension to revisit the subject.
Despite KC’s meally mouthed words on the topic, he’s never going to stop believing in Europe, it’s in his heart.
Nulab and the LD’s would pick away endlessly at us over it because they know there would be a simmering fault line, ready to blow at the first sign of any ‘give’ from KC as leader on the subject.
In some way’s it is a shame, because he is ‘a face’ a good parliamentarian and something of a character (a bit to arrogant for my taste, but that’s subjective personal opinion)
Forget the Poll’s, they are transitory siren false trails.
Whatever he KC (might)pick up from the centre, he will more than lose to abstentions/the right.
How many seats did UKIP potentially cost us last time ?!
Spit over….
106 Julian. Spicer may pull the final round a week earlier or allow an extra week for campaigning for that ballot or the members ballot, it really is a flexible animal
95 Alex W.
Totally respect your opinion, but will never agree on this one.
We’ve all got our own individual lines in the sand !
Regards
108 - that was my feeling (which is why I think Jack can’t have the best interests of CCHQ at heart when he plugs KC - he will split your party). Interestingly if he gets the brush off again what do you think he’ll do career-wise? Turn into Ted Heath Mk II?
112 Tabman. As if you have the interests of the Tories at heart
Mal’s withdrawl changes the dynamic slightly. Fox will now be the first to drop out …. the question is does our Ken have the legs to outpoll Cameroon in the following ballot …… it’ll be a tight squeeze for our Ken … but then it has been for many years
Rifkind’s withdrawal means that bar the suprise entry of another candidate, the first round becomes v.dangerous indeed for Cameron, Clarke and Fox. Indeed of all the three the one that now looks doomed is KC. With only 20 declared MP’s plus another five from MR, it is hard to see where he can find the votes to stay in the race. Of the remaining undeclared MP’s not many look like potential KC voters.
Of course this would then lead to a final round of Fox, Cameron and Davis where all sorts of shenigans could take place and in my view any one could get knocked out.
109. I agree its a shame about KC. He could have been leader yonks ago if it weren’t for Europe - and he is a likeable, tough, persuasive politician - just what the Tories have needed for so long. And yet, and yet…
I wonder if, when he retires, he will look back on all this and regret it. Not least because he missed his chance on an issue where he was demonstrably wrong - the euro, for instance.
Ach, probably he’ll just have a pint and a cigar and say we were all stupid, and he was right. Which is his charm, and his downfall.
Re Rifkind
Well played team PB, pat on the back for all of us !!
Sorry Nuala, you were a fantastic supporter.
At least your man emerged from the event with his reputation,honour and profile firmly enhanced.
Sir Malcolm Rifkind, who has announced that he is pulling out of the
Conservative leadership race, has declared his support for Ken Clarke.
Sir Malcolm said the former Chancellor - a former Cabinet colleague -
was ‘head and shoulders’ above the other candidates. He was a ‘future
Prime Minister’ and a politician with ‘popular appeal’.
Jack W, looking at the numbers it seems more likely that Fox will progress through over Ken Clarke. For one he is likely to get about 15 votes from the Tombstone group (added to current 15), some Davis declared votes plus others from new MP’s who are not sure about Cameron. I can easily see Fox polling about 40 in the first round, as I expect Cameron to do. Whereas I struggle to see how KC can get to the necessary 40 MP’s.
112 - Jack, I’m not th eone who has claimed he has voted Tory and would do so again were KC nominated
118 - Andrew, the Tories have 198 MPs. If Cameron/Fox both poll ~40, and Davis (say) 75, that still leaves ~40 MPs up for grabs…
117 Nuala, in light of this development, please totally ignore mine at 116 !!!!!
110 - Thanks Jack.
I’d have voted for Rifkind - I think he was the perfect balance between young and old, left and right. He doesn’t have the centralising, Europhile instincts of KC. He argues well the case for a low tax economy as well as being reassuringly socially liberal. He is not perceived as “nasty” Right. Unlike certain candidates, he knows how to give a good speech and comes across extremely well on TV and (even more so) radio. Hopefully this contest has at least given him the opportunity to increase his profile.
I think this talk of a “Dream Ticket” is very funny. We don’t have an American system here so do so many want to consign one of your two brightest (Cameron/Clark) to attending second rate funerals for the foreseeable future?
118 Andrew M. I believe that our Ken will perform well at the hustings compared to the other candidates, especially Cameroon. I think that our Ken will outpoll expectations as previously ! My revised figures presently are :
DD : 60
DC : 35
KC : 35
LF : 25
119 Tabman. I haven’t said with our Ken I would vote Tory again but that I would seriously look at the Tories again ! It’d be something if i could seriously look at the Lib Dems …. but hey perhaps your time will come !!
124 - that’s 43 left over Jack: how do you expect them to break?
124 Jack, FWIW (not much !)I still think that you are dangerously ’short’ of LF’s potential Parliamentary votes.
Regards
124 I also think you will be suprised with LF’s performance at the hustings.
Is there a contingency in case the first round is drawn this time? The way this contest is going I wouldn’t be surprised to see figures of 75, 41, 41, 41. Or some such.
“Cornerstone won’t vote on bloc. They are not a cult.” (87 -woody 662)
Sound like a lot of silly cults to me
124 - Jack, given that Tombstone wouldn’t go away were KC to take over, what’s your problem with diversity of opinion in the LDs?
But I cannot see where Ken is going to get the votes to move from 25 to 41 from!
…..KC as Tory leader would have massive problems with all these crucial newspapers……
KC is a total No-No. If we had not voted IDS last time, we woukld now be happy members of an EU under the New Constitution. Unfortunately IDS was no good for the party, but as Tories we put our country first.
Isn’t it possible now that Rifkinds gone that the contest will polarize into “Big Beast” of the left against “Big Beast” of the right like it always does in Tory leadership elections. And Rifkinds support isn’t to be underrated. I’m starting to wonder whether it wont end up Clark V Davis? Cameron reduced to the PR invention he probably is.
131 - hopefully not, no - but as had been said before, he’s a wily chap and you don’t know what’s going to happen in the next week. He somehow amassed 59 votes in 2001.
128 - If there is a tie for last (in your case, a 3-way tie), the first round is rerun.
In the event of a subsequent tie, the tied contenders are eliminated.
However, that’s for:
a. Ties between 2 candidates.
b. Ties before the last knockout.
Your scenario has not, I think, been envisaged. Applying the letter of the law, if that were to happen, and recur in a rerun, DD would be unopposed in the members ballot, I suppose.
In reality, they’d make up a rule on the hoof. Using the letter of the law, there are no limits to the number of candidates presented to the members. In that case, you could argue to have all 4 presented (mind, to win, one would need to get 50% of the members votes)
The longer it goes on the worse it’ll get for Cameron. A bubble waiting to burst. I’m going to put some money on Clark. Rifkinds endorsement is fullsome and impressive
125/126 book value/TB. Yes the genuinely undecided ! This is the tricky area, and as I’ve just said this is where the hustings and HoC performances will be crucial. Cameroon has performed well at the two set pieces - launch and conference - arena, but he has been rehearsing them for weeks. The more intense, immedieate and close up scrunity of colleagues is another matter. At this stage if I had to hazard a guess of the 1st ballot (hostage to fortune) give or take a few either way I’d put it :
DD : 65
DC : 45
KC : 45
LF : 35
After the first ballot how many of DD’s supporters will still feel obliged to him ????? Will DD be the Portillo of 2005 ????
To our Tory friends - what does KC do if he’s rejected?
I’d just like to point out that nowhere can I see an absolute endorsement of KC, all media outlets are couching the reports with the words ‘likely’ and whilst that is highly likely it is still only 1 to KC tally the other 6 will probably include at least one or 2 that will go Cameron…..
138 Presumably the same as he’s done for the Party for the past 8 years (Not much !)
114. Andrew, I think on the contrary, I think this is DD’s biggest chance of removing Cameron on ballot 1. (Cameron is DDs biggest threat should he reach the final 2). DD knows he would not beat DC but would stand a good chance against KC or LF. If most of the 8 from Rifkind go to Clarke, DD may not have to transfer many of his supporters to Fox and Clarke. Remember that many of the remaining 60 or so undeclared are right wing with quite a few for Fox in there and I believe possible even 2 or 3 Cornerstone for KC (H, H and C). KC also has a pleasant history of pulling off undeclared and unexpected votes so anything could happen now.
137 - But Jack on your numbers Fox goes out, so whilst DD’s supporters may not feel obliged to him, they only have a choice of KC or DC, so will probably stay with him I’d have thought.
Personally I think the momentum on Cameron, whilst impressive, is slightly overdone, everyone has there ‘moment in the sun’ and its then that one should sell rather than buy. I don’t see a situation emerging where Davis doesn’t make it to the members, and from then anything is possible…
If it does go down to KC vs DD, then who would DC support. (I can’t see this as I expect LF to join the DC cmapiagn when knocked out) but it is a possibility.
140 - do you think he will stay on as a kind of Ted Heath?
130 Tabman. Labour and the Tories have factions and splits but the Lib Dems have “diversity of opinions”
I’ll have a look at the Lib Dems once you stop thinking that tax and spend to the enth degree is the primary element of ecomonic policy ! Let’s see how far the Tango Bookers get !!
Ordinarily I’d say that Jack was being wildly optimistic, but I re-read a useful link that alex (the other one) provided me with yesterday:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,9061,523456,00.html
Ken only had 28 declared supporters, but 31 undeclared ones. There were rumours of tactical voting by IDS backers wanting to keep Portillo out of the members’ ballot, but, if Jack is to be believed (always a worthwhile caveat ;)) then certain members of the Right might just vote Clarke to keep out Cameron.
If Cameron does go out, a chunk of dosh on Clarke winning might be a good investment.
I notice Camerons odds are dropping. It looks like I’m not alone in thinking he might not make the final two.
146 - it wouldn’t be that surprising if KC had some Cornerstone votes. After all, Ann Widdecombe backed him last time. I don’t think she’s a member of Cornerstone, admittedly, but certainly is from that wing of the party.
129. Harsh. Leigh is a obviously very passionate about his questionable beliefs (I’ve toned that down) but they are not all crazy.
149 - woody, does “all crazy” mean all of Leigh’s beliefs or all of the Cornerstone group?
141 I largely agree with your thrust Andy, re the ‘quick kill’ of DC.
Do think that he(DC)is riding on a wave of (over) hype
at the moment though. Another chance will come for DD (or LF or KC) when DC comes under closer scrutiny/inevitable pressure, depending on how he handles himself.
142 Lennon. I think this race is very fluid. Remember only a week ago Cameroon was a no hoper and DD a shoe-in !! However my forcaste is this :
DD will certainly make the members ballot and certainly be beaten by either our Ken or Cameroon.
The question to ask Cameron is will he work with David Davis? - He obviously would have no problem with KC - would be at his side waiting for the first sign of flu, but if “Changing the Values” of the Conservatives means anything, how could he work with DD or LF for that matter.
Roger: “Cameron reduced to the PR invention he probably is”
I don’t see how DC is more of a PR invention than KC - the latter has done virtually nothing for the past 8 years and his campaign is based entirely upon his public appeal. Where are KC’s policies? What are they?
150. Sorry didn’t mean to put the word ‘all’. Habit typing there.
“…and his campaign is based entirely upon his public appeal”
and we dont want any of that nonsense in the Tory party do we.
146 Some of KC’s 2001 vote has left parliament, and Rifkind is the first of the 54 MP’s of the new intake to declare for KC. He also has lost double figures of declared supporters last time to other candidates this time. Seven of DD’s supporters last time backed Clarke in the final round after DD had been knocked out, including Conway, who are all back with DD this time.
I was hoping MR would stay around as I reckon his endorsement would mean more from being knocked out in the race rather than before it.
153. In terms of policy, i don’t think there is a major varience between Dc and DD so I don’t see the problem with them working together with regards to that. I couldn’t comment on how they get along personally.