…and then there were four….
October 11th, 2005-
Rifkind pulls out - Cameron’s price eases
As had been widely predicted the former Foreign Secretary who returned to the House in May after a gap of eight years, Sir Malcom Rifkind, has pulled out of the Tory leadership race.
He said he wanted the party to be led by a One Nation Conservative which is thought to mean that he will line up behind his cabinet colleague in last Tory Government, Ken Clarke.
The move makes next Tuesday’s first ballot of MPs even more significant because the bottom of the poll will automatically be dropped. If Rifkind had stayed he would undoubtedly have come bottom and the initial voting could have been seen as very much a taking of the temperature. Those who had signed up for Davis would have been able to see whether the pledged levels of support were actually forthcoming. Now they will not have that comfort.
The reaction of the betting markets has been an easing of the David Cameron price - now back at more than evens at 1.04/1.
Mike Smithson
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Told you Young (well youngish for sir malc) Cardinals and old popes and all that. A Cameron leadership would shatter many dreams. A problem he may yet, but must must overcome somehow.
Mmmm. I would have thought Sir Malcolm was always going to move behind Clarke so that would have already been reflected in the betting?
Suggests the bookies are not as up with things as they should be.
There are rather a lot of ageing Conservative MP’s who, misty eyed, will be tempted to vote for a fellow free bus-pass holder and rather a lot of late-middle-aged MP’s who still hanker for the leadership mantle to fall to them, one day, who may also be tempted to back Ken. However I think that this time MP’s are rather more concerned to avoid the farce they had last time when Portillo missed out through byzantine tactical voting that backfired dreadfully. There will be hell to pay amongst the activsist and their MP’s if Cameron is excluded.
The two Davids are still the favourites to get through.
The membership that i have been talking to, myself included, will be furious if Cameron is excluded from the final two. Virtually everyone i have spoken to the in West Derbyshire and Selby Conservative associations support Cameron, having swung quite heavily from Davis pre-conference. People are being far more pragmatic this time, focusing on winning rather than ideology.
Maybe they should just put all three (both Davids and Ken) through to the membership and have allow members to put a second preference - is that permissible under the rules? From earlier posts on this forum I rather think it is.
That would settle the issue properly and give a firmer mandate to whoever wins. There would be no “could have beens” about anyone, like there was in 2001 with Portillo.
It would also make for an immensely tense count of members’ ballots and a eagerly awaited announcement of the result!
5 - I think Liam Fox might complain a bit about that!
3. Not seen you on here for a while Marcus. How’s things in Torbay. Isn’t there a mayoral election coming up soon around there?
2. Mike’s quoted the Betfair price Dave, which is set by punters, not the bookie.
mmm well they might have to lump it. If the idiots were stupid enough to vote for IDS last time they can consider themselves lucky they get to vote again. I wouldn’t trust the party membership with a dinner menu after that almighty mess.
4 - Maddy. I am astonished that all those who are being “pragmatic” and are “focusing on winning” plan on voting Cameron.
If anything Cameron is a risk and more of a long term option - if I was a Tory member and wanted to WIN I’d lean toward Clarke.
ah thanks for the clarification chrisco… OK then plenty of punters have foolishly decided MR’s backing is something new for Ken…
4. Which is why Clark and Cameron should face off.
3. It’s not just those with grey hair you know. Many quite close in age at least to Cameron are rather concerned if one of their own generation gets the prize already what that will do for their chances, whether they will be the old mutton left standing on the shelf by the time the next chance occurs. The older lot may actually be more favourable to Cameron in many cases, as they will in many instances already know their Chance has long gone.
6 - complain he might but I personally think you’ll see him get excluded in the first round. I might well be wrong though - if Cameron’s bubble doesn’t burst it would well be Ken who falls by the wayside I suppose.
I can see a very serious problem in the party if Cameron is excluded. He’s the one increasing numbers of the rank and file want as their leader and this is shown in empathically in the polls.
David Davis has got many talents, and the party is lucky to have him. but just lack that ability to inspire. We saw a new vision for the party in Blackpool next week and I cannot believe that MPs would stand in the way.
This weekend they are going to come under extraordinary pressure from their members. Will they go along with this or what they told Conway and his heavies a few weeks ago?
There’s also the risk of getting Ken Clarke.
12 - they probably won’t have too long to wait if Cameron flops and if he can somehow get them in power they should be thanking him for the car and the red boxes.
Did anyone see Niall Ferguson’s op-ed in the Sunday Telegraph? He was talking about British politics becoming like Japan’s - a more or less one party state with Labour in power for 30 more years.
14 - what is this new vision? A load of platitudes that might have washed coming 8 years ago coming from a LABOUR leader but won’t get the TORIES anywhere now.
KC has made it clear publicly, and also on the most important forum of all (ie on here) that he will not weigh in if he doesn’t get the top job. Are all his supporters comfortable with that?
Sure, we all know he’d earn much more money as duputy chairman at Boots, or whatever it’ll be called after the city wide-boys have their money in.
But he’s 65, he’s fed his family, and if he genuinely believes that you vote in conservative govt ‘for the good of the country’, should maximising his personal income be his main issue?
7, I’ve been working, trying to catch up some of the lost income from taking a six-month break to fight the election! Torbay is bubbling with excitement we have a mayoral contest with 14 candidates - don’t ask me how to bet.
Stonch at 14 Ken only registers because he is the most ‘famous’ of the candidates, in every balanced test of opinion amongst equally informed observers from all political persuasions Cameron trumps all the other candidates and Gordon Brown comprehensively. He is easily our best hope. I very much hope that this time we actually do back a winner, something many posters on this site especially Lib Dem ones, must be praying we don’t do.
I have to say though that some of these “reports” coming in from Conservative members in various parts of the country seem a bit suspicious. Not because they are trying to actively mislead, but because there may be a case of Shy Davisite/Foxite/Clarkeite out there. Despite everything he still ‘only’ got 39% in that members ballot. Reminds a bit of 1997 when the atmosphere generated was such that you would have expected Tony Blair to have got 70% of the vote on a mammoth turnout. He got substantially less votes than Major.
17. He’s actually said he wants to be sure if he accepts he won’t merely be parked on the frontbench for six months and the summarily fired.
17. Yeah, I find KC’s lofty attitude a bit grisly. It’s like ‘I’m prepared to help you out by being your leader, you dreary little people, but if you don’t choose me then you are obviously idiots, so goodbye’. Nice. Team spirit and all that. To hell with him.
18 - Cameron will not trump Gordon Brown. I may be wrong about Clarke, but Cameron won’t beat Brown.
22 - Well obviously you don’t think so but thats not what the Newsnight focus group said.
21 - that’s what the public likes about him! I think that the public DO think the Tories (MPs and members) ARE idiots who are failing in their job to provide opposition to this deeply flawed government. The idea of Ken going in there and knocking heads together appeals to a lot of voters who are dissatisfied with Labour but horrified by Hague/Duncan Loon/Howard’s Tory party.
23 - the Newsnight focus group - would that be the highly suspect one?
21. See the post at 17.
21. Sorry that should be the post at 20.
22. Why won’t DC trump Brown - the man who is even more boring than DD. You know the joke - “Brown’s the only man who can brighten up a room by leaving it”. He carries an enormous amount of baggage and he hasn’t be called properly to account for some of his crazy costly schemes. He debating style is to fire zillions of numbers and overwhelm by noise.
He also does not have that Tony Blair magic of making the middle classes feel safe to vote Labour. All four remaining Tories have the potential to outshine Brown.
15 - …a more or less one party state with Labour in power for 30 more years.
Sounds a bit like Scotland already…;-)
I still believe that Clarke is the only man who can actually beat Labour under GB. Having said that he can only do that if he can carry his own party through to the election and I’m not 100% convinced he can do THAT.
Having said that I still see the final ballot being between someone from the one-nation and someone from the right wings of the party so the final choice won’t be too difficult for me.
Stonch @ 24 - I don’t want to aim to provide an opposition to the Government I want our party to BE the Government. We have to plan ahead, and we have to pick a leader who can inspire the country not just our MP’s and members.
31 - Marcus you may well be right about Cameron, but PLEASE don’t use that ridiculous focus group as justification.
OK Here is my stab at the first ballot results :-
DD - 71 , DC - 42 , KC - 42 , LF - 42 Abstention - 1
What happens next ??
Alex. Ok, I’ll use the Times’ Populus Poll instead. Or Kellners comment that he’s never seen a turnaround in the Polls like Camerons. Or do your own office focus group like I did, not even slightly scientific but amazingly conclusive.
I have just been having lunch with work colleagues none of whom voted Tory in May. We were discussing the leadership election and one said that she quite liked Cameron. The others all agreed. She voted Labour last time and I imagine has done previously. She said that she wouldn’t definitely vote Tory if Cameron was leader but she would certainly contemplate it, which would not be the case if Davis or Clarke took charge.
Over the past few days I have heard person after person say this. These people are primarily young professionals who 15 years ago would have been Tory voters. They are exactly the people whose support the Tories need to win/win back if they are to form a government again especially as they live in urban/suburban marginals.
The Tories will never be able tow in back power whilst a whole group of people who should be natural Tory voters refuse to even entertain the idea of a Conservative government.
So to all those people that say that Cameron won’t be able to beat Brown, you may prove to be correct, but in terms of electoral prospects, the Tories need to become “acceptable” to those people if they are to seize power again and it would appear that Cameron comes a lot closer to being able to achieve that than any other contender.
34. I think that Tory working class supporters are much more drawn to toffs than middle class ones
What exactly did you ask your office?
35 - There is no doubt that there has been a substantial at least shortterm increase in support of DC amongst Conservative members but to say as some have that that support is overwhelming is rather like Rik W saying he could finf noone who was going to vote Lib Dem in Sutton and Cheam before the last GE
35 - fine use the polls. They have a scientific basis.
Not a focus group that concludes that claims to have a third “dyed in the wool” conservatives only half of which would vote for Michael Howard when up against Brown and Kennedy
See my point at 19 about Blair in 1997.
mmm. My office straw poll says Ken Clarke if we want to win the election and Cameron if we want to keep the people in the party who hate ken happy.
Pretty much what I reckon
35 - the very fact we’ve already had such an astonishing poll turnaround in this Tory leadership race can mean two things: -
1. Cameron is a amazing, man of the moment, etc, all the public needed to do was see him speak once and they were sold
2. The public are baffled by the whole thing and any poll will be highly volatile, public opinion like a battered old chesterfield in Whites club - bearing the imprintur of the last pair of buttocks to be parked in it (in this case Cameron’s)
Did anyone mention the latest Populus GE voting intention poll? …
37 - Yes but old fashioned toffs, not hip, young urban ones who like gay people, drugs and foreigners. The Tory core vote has been buttressed by making a damn against liberal, metrosexual urban elites. They won’t like it if that damn is removed.
44 - Freudian slip?
42 Unfair, the fact is thet before the Conference no-one outside the Party knew who Cameron was. All the polls say is that they obviously like what they see. I’m all too aware that our problem for ages has been image - in analysis after anaylsis people in the main like our policies until they find out who’s they are. They like the movement but dislike the name that’s behind it. (In other words they like the product but not the brand).
Only Cameron seems to offer some solution to that dilemmna, here at last is a likeable, media savvy and new leadership contender who is not weighed down by previous baggage - unlike Clarke is not associated with either the Conservatives unhappy 1990’s or the splits that have dogged our party.
If you want any more evidence look at the reaction from our enemies - they fear Cameron enough to smear him over the drugs thing - they say they ‘fear’ Clark but when have Labour spin doctoors ever tried to really damage him? Answer, never because secretly they know he is their best chance of staying in power.
46 - You have a point on the drugs thing - must say having read about people like Dennis Skinner mocking Cameron in Parliament, I am deeply unimpressed with Labour. This stuff is nothing new - didn’t half Hague’s shadow cabinet admit to doing gear to sink Widdecombe?
And maybe you have a point that Clarke does seem to get an easy ride … I am open minded and what you say makes some sense to me.
Still not convinced about Cameron though.
44- the Tory “core vote” will vote Tory regardless of who is in charge in the same way the Labour “core vote” may not have been very happy to have Blair as PM but continued to support him. The Lib Dems did well this time round in areas with high concentration of younger anti-war people (Hornsey, Brent East etc…) not so much with the “core vote” such as union members who le, not the older union members.
So the Tories need to find someone who can actually get the missing 10 per cent back that has been lost since 1992 in the same way that Labour found someone who could attract support from past Tory voters. In this modern media age, from what is on offer, I don’t see how that can be achieved by anyone that isn’t Cameron.
28 – Mike
I agree, no doubt surprisingly, that Cameron would outshine and indeed ‘trump’ Brown in the eyes of the country and especially in England, for example who can say that will a modest economic slow down and against more than a decade of Labour rule that in a fight between Cameron and Brown Labour would stand little chance of holding its ultra-marginals in London as well as the South and East?
I doubt that Davis would provide a huge challenge to Brown, indeed looking at the situation now I’d say that Brown vs Davis would send half the country to sleep, Fox’s politics would get in his way, while his style might well be a decent foil to Brown’s dour countenance, on policy the same might well go for Davis as for Fox.
Clark would certainly outshine Brown in the Commons and in front of the country but would he be able to back that up with a “credible alternative political narrative” (there’s a nice bit of meaningless political jargon for you), personally I doubt it, but that is not to say that without such a fresh narrative Clark could not best Brown and Labour.
As for Cameron in style as I say he would utterly trump Brown, that would once have been hard for me to admit to but oh-well I don’t see any laser beam aimed at my forehead just yet
, as with Clark though could he challenge the, by the time of the next election, rather tired Brownite Social Democratic narrative? I’d argue that he is probably far more predisposed to fashioning such an approach than any of the other leadership contenders and that combined with his media savy and clarity have got to mark him out as a potentially (I stress “potentially”) very effective leader for the Tories… but no one can be certain of any of this, perhaps Rifkin would have been the panacea to all the Tories’ woes, you can only tell so much from a candidates’ cv and time in politics… but we will soon see.
45 - Weakness for mixed metaphors
48 Richard M. The trouble is in this modern media age once the novelty of the shiny new Cameroon (Highlander
) wares off what is there left ? …. I’m already aware of several whispering campaigns against your man, let alone the tizzy the Tory press is in over who can beat GB ! ….. and more importantly the media honeymoon will come to end. The question is when ….. next week …. next month ???
47 - Stonch, plenty of time for it all to go pear shaped yet. I hope I hope the party do the right thing for once and put him on the shortlist, but there is already a danger of the focus drifting away from the positive (i.e. who can win for us?) and back onto the numbing negativity of the last few years (all that ‘candidate X must be stopped before its too late….’ bollocks)
51- Yes the honeymoon will undoubtedly come to an end like with all politicians though i note that policies have been padded out more in recent days (yesterday’s piece in the Telegraph for example).
However, even if the love-in slows down, at least the party will have been able to reach out to some people- with a KC or DD leadership I can’t see the party getting that opportunity at all.
richard M’s points are bang on. professional 30s even 40s people with mortgages and decent jobs are not voting Tory - in the 1980s they did. A young fresh image is just what we need. As far as the comments about young cardinals and old popes go - they can either grow old in opposition, or actually be in a Tory Cabinet - I would have thought the choise should be simple.
53. Blair’s honeymoon lasted years. 37. Mike you are right - the chippiest people in the UK are definitely the middle class; they are ultra materialistic and insanely resentful of anyone who has more than they do especially if there is the barest suspicion that such people may have enjoyed some ‘privileged’ upbringing.
I think the idea of a Tory leader with Eton and Whites on his cv is just fantastic. I urge Clarke to stand down now and support him.
(I don´t think I´m middle class, but how does one define it?)
Mike - you slay me…
Just back from the pub to find this :
“Those who had signed up for Davis would have been able to see whether the pledged levels of support were actually forthcoming. Now they will not have that comfort”
So why is Davis in a different position to any of the others ?
Why name him over them ?
Did he snap your aerial as well as slashing all four of your tyres ?
Chuckle chuckle/regards
David Kendrick 17,
I dont wish to shatter any illusions you may have about how important this site is, but the person who signed Ken Clarke might actually not have been the Ken Clarke but just someone temporarily borrowing his monicker for effect.
However, what was said, was clearly correct - there is no point being deputy for 4 years then being retired if the Tories did win.
aw Tory Boy… getting upset that the right are losing the argument in the party that you all thought you had sewn up?
Excellent.
58 - I hadn’t read that!
Sorry but prize for village idiot goes to David Kendrick!
53/54 Richard M /jeffh. For the tories sake you’d better hope the image remains untarnished. However may I advise that a certain Sunday title of (ill) repute is already digging with some success into the personal background of DC (rumours already circulating) …. who said a week was a long time in politics ?!?! Further Labour is well underway in its’ preparation of the case against Cameroon … trawling every speech etc …. oh and photos from Eton !! so that it will paint an unfavourable portrait of the man just as it did with the last young hopeful - William Hague !! NuLab is very good at the long game !!
HO HO HO I’m a big toff, I smoke cannabis, HO HO HO
Yes I really am David Cameron, its amazing isn’t it
I have to defend Mike.
He is right that Davis is more vulnerable to losing support than the others. His team are heavily drawn from current or ex whips; they know how to whip up support, and the view before Conference was ‘declare for Davis if you know whats good for you’. But as his crown slips and the patronage drains away his ’supporters’ are very likely to give himn a damn good kicking in revenge. This simply doesn’t apply to any of the other contenders.
It’s your basic human nature, innit? That’s what makes these contests so riveting.
5 - Stonch, unfortunately that would be STV and hence a form of PR!!!! (Much fainting and taking of smelling salts ensues in shires sitting rooms) …
48 No Richard, the core vote will not
Re Ben 49. Your comment I’d say that Brown vs Davis would send half the country to sleep is a bit of an understatement. Who would remain awake apart from a few of us PB.C nerds?
My private nightmare, which thankfully is looking slightly less probable, is a line-up of Davis/Brown/Kennedy at the next election - all leaders who are a bit lacking on the inspirational front. They’d have to have compulsory voting or else no one would turn out.
At least in this context Kennedy with a glass can be good company and tell a good anecdote. What’s Davis like after he has had a couple - you can’t imagine him being fun and I cannot visualise GB being good company sober or not.
Tabman - go back to Electoral Reform School - that is AV. The MPs could have STV in their election ‘cos there are two places up for grabs.
But it wouldn’t be half as much fun for the rest of us - I can see the eventually winner’s reputation nicely in tatters after all this is over.
59 I think you must be looking at different statistics to me David.
62 Te he he….
I always supported you really Sir, gis a job !
61- Jack W
Not really any great surprise there, is there?
But, first vote is Tuesday, when presumably Fox is going to be knocked out, with the final 2 decided on Thursday. I’d be surprised if many of Fox’s people went over to Clarke (for them Europe is going to be an issue, even if not for the party at large) which leaves Davis and Cameron (assuming there is not total meltdown of Davis’s vote) into the membership ballot. Can’t imagine many Tory grassroots being overly concerned by the lefty newspapers though I’m sure they will try and do as much damage as they can. Not sure there’s quite long enough for a couple of stories drudged up about Cameron’s past to fatally wound his campaign- to do that so quickly, he’s going to need to mess up himself (as DD so ably demonstrated).
67/68 Tabman. Was that your Kennedy/Local Income Tax moment?
To all those crowning DC because he had a good conference, I would love to have a fresh young exciting leader of ther party who could bring the young voters flooding in. I’m just not sure that we can get to the next election without a weekly diet of “Inexperience and Eton” destroying our chances entirely.
As for Ken, the Labour Party must be praying really hard that he wins. Past it, nothing new to say, likely to split the party. They would be no better off if Satan himself got the leadership.
71 Richard
What makes you believe Foxy is going out first ?
Aren’t the Tombstoners lining up to vote for Charlie Fox? Surely that will see him through the first round at least?
73 EU Serf. There’s quite a few votes in Satanism at this time of year ! ….. and you’ll have the devil’s own job getting elected without beelzebub Ken as Tory leader
18 etc - Marcus nice to have you back old boy!
32 - I have rewatched the Newsnight focus group and (apart from the fact that some people dont like the conclusions) I cannot see why some are so dismissive of it. The clips we saw are clearly ony clips of much longer candidate pieces that were shown to the group, and Luntz’s comments tended to come after a candidate had been shown and they had voted. He even gave them some of the negative about privilege that would be thrown at Cameron and it only changed a couple. I dont see that it was any the less reliable than many other means of sampling opinion that we have seen. Scientific it was not, but it certainly was indicative!
46 - Agree totally!
39 - Mark Senior - that is a ridiculous comment and not one that you can justify from any posting I have ever made!
72 - its been a long day … I’ve been partaking of caffeinated beverage products … and a lack of sleep caused by small children
Luckily its not happened anywhere important
74 Tory Boy- general lack of support (despite Cornerstone saying they will support him), though I would prefer to see a Cameron-Fox play off.
Your 65 comment- they might say they won’t, but when it comes down to it, they will come back to the fold. Just like the unions keep threatening to support the Lib Dems. They are unlikely to go over to UKIP since Cameron is in line with the party on Europe, though this of course could be a big issue if KC ever became leader.
78 - oh yes it has! I’m keeping my eye on you, young whippersnapper!
Have I got this right?
DD - Poor speaker, IDS with hair would bore party to death.
KC - Too old would split party on Europe.
DC - Too young high taxes would split party.
LF - Too right wing would split party.
Should have stayed with Nuala’s nice safe scot.
Rifkind’s pull out indicates either that the Clarke camp is totally panicking and is trying to get traction from anywhere to avoid an awful first round vote.
Or… They are fairly confident with a few dodgy deal, nods and winks that David Cameron is going out in the first round. Can’t think why Sir Malcom would bow out otherwise - anywhere in between would mitigate towards him staying in and giving Clarke some extra time to turn it around.
81 - would split party’s lip
75 Peter. That’s if they don’t stand Edward Leigh …. and why should they … few others can stand him. In any case the Tombstone gang will spray all over the shop. I’ve got 3 in our Ken’s column, 1 was for Mal, with DD and DC taking several and the rest about 12 for Fox.
82- Or…with just 7 supporters, there isn’t a great deal of point in standing. It’s not like Rifkind needs the publicity- everyone knows that he is an asset to the party; unfortunately just not a leader.
Sorry Mr Wood Labour haven’t tried to smear Ken? What?!
Point one. DD & KC blast Brown same day. Who does Ed Balls blast Ken. About Davis not a word.
Point two ask yourself why all the tiresome Tobacco stories startedpopping up in Labour newspapers when Ken was doing well. One thing is sure only Ken and Cameron excite any concern in Labour ranks. Liam Fox and Davis, well they’d love to face them.
I wonder how much of Tony Blair’s political success can be attributed to most people not having heard of Fettes?
69 - You not seen the difference in the Davis odds 10 days ago to the ones now?
You can’t have missed it!!!
84 - And do you have Fox there in round 2?
67/72. Tabman isn’t wrong in calling it STV - by-elections and presidential elections in Ireland are described as such, even though there is only one place to fill.
To meet the Tory leadership requirement that 50% of voting members support the winning candidate, voters would need to use all their preferences, which isn’t compulsory under most implementations of STV.
97 - Alex - A toff running the Labour Party running the Labour PArty means reaching out beyond their natural constituency. An Etonian runing the Tories…doesn’t.
90 - thank you! My reputation restored!
Icarus at 81,
Nah. Mike Smithson’s analysis implies that a Brown/Davis/Kennedy contest would be great for the Tories. If they are all so boring that hardly anyone bothers to vote, and if the rule that “as turnout goes down, the Tory percentage goes up”, we’re looking at a Conservative landslide in ‘09 :-).
77/39 Rik W. My dear Squabbling Ledger, unless senility has come over me in the last six months
possible !! I do recall at the height of your hyperbole in down town Sutton and Cheam saying that on a canvass you failed to find a single Lib Dem voter. Now it may be you were continuosly re-canvassing Peter Stringfellow and Lord Archer, however we forgive you your enthusiasm and one eyed assessment of your chances in the heat and light of election time, just as we do now in those memory loss moments necessary for any erstwhile politician !!
“richard M’s points are bang on. professional 30s even 40s people with mortgages and decent jobs are not voting Tory - in the 1980s they did.”
Though in London and the South East, quite a lot of them did on May 5th.
Granted Cameron would go down very well with such voters, how do posters think he would go down with, say, 50-something middle income voters in a place like Swindon (a much more numerous group than young professionals? Would he understand their concerns?
Yes how do we think Cameron would go down up North where I am?
He really needs a couple of northern MPs in support - but seen as there are only about 6 in total this might prove problematic.
Hi Rik are you well? Hows things? Drop us an email …
86 Anon ‘Tiresome tobacco stories?’ the only negative stuff about Ken has been in pro Davis newspapers put there by ‘friends’. The Labour Party have consistantly and completely ignored every opportunity to duff up Clarke - the left newspapers spend their time talking him up and the Trotsky Beeb are in the front row of the Ken for Tory leader fan club.
What’s the awful woman with the blonde hair and the annoying voice called who won the Tories a seat in Putney or Fulham or whatever?
88 David
So was the contest over prior to last week ?
Is it over now ?
Has someone other than Davis sewn it up ?
What is your point ?
Excellent !
91- Peter
None of Major, Hague or Howard were educated privately and it didn’t make any difference.
Labour needed the support of the middle classes so they elected a middle class leader. The Tories problem is not simply the opposite to Labour which would mean electing DD from his single-mother council estate background. They need to regain the support of metropolitan Britain so they need to elect a leader from metropolitan Britain. That person is Cameron not Clarke, DD or Fox regardless of where they went to school.
98- Justine Greening
Putneys not in the North even of London.
Greening - not a patch on Jo Dunn
96. He’s got George O (Tatton) of course, though whether Cheshire counts as North is a moot point.
98. Justine Greening, and a more delightful ex-accountant it would be hard to find.
97. I wouldn’t call the Guardian which has run a series of Tobacco attack stories, including the Labour chairman of the Health committee attacking Ken, the natural paper of choice for Davis or John Rentoul and Tom Baldwin the Blairite twins natural Davis supporters either. True Cameron has taken flak as well but so has Ken from Labour sources, but i’ll agree with you no one else has. Both men have risks but if it is anyone except one of those two, Labour has the next election in the bag already.
99 - Really have to stop responding but my point is that your lot thought the right had stiched the leadership up AGAIN but seem to have come a bit of a cropper through the inadequacies of the anointed.
100 - Richard M. was I dreaming, or did john Major actually win a General Election back there in 1992?
Personally I think that Fox - with a classless Scottish accent - would be a decent choice for you (out of the 4) as he won´t split the party. I agree that DD won´t do it.
I would quite like you to elect Cameron. I don´t think he would survive until the General Election.
96 & 104 - He’s got the backing our most northerly MP (and my local MP) David Mundell in Dunfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.
97 Marcus W. “….. Trotsky Beeb …”
Ah yes poor Greg Dyke departed with an axe in his head.
Fortunately dear old Auntie still more highly regarded than any other news organization …. and if the Tories and NuLab are moaning at it they’re almost certainly getting it right most of the time .
94 - there was never any reason to resort to hyperbole, all my reports were “as found”. I dont recall not finding a single Lib Dem or posting that on here but you never know, as they are such sly deceitful people! However it does not justify Mark Senior’s stupid comment “Rik W saying he could find no-one who was going to vote Lib Dem in Sutton and Cheam before the last GE “. I did not say that and would not have done. What I did find was people who had not voted Tory last time who said they would this time. I think my result bears that out!
98 - do you mean the fragrant Justine Greening MP?
Rik. Long time no see. I note your praise of Luntzy boy at post 77. Of course he told us before the election that CK was the man of the moment? Was he wrong on that - is he infallible. Mike Smithson thinks CK is c**p, so on that form DC is also c**p.
FWIW, I think the little frisson of Cameron fun will fade as quickly as it came. Like a weekend romance in a cheap hotel, it can seem like love, but come dawn - and the place in the bed next to you is occupied by but an empty ruffled sheet, and you find yourself wondering what her name actually was - all you are left with is vague memory of joy, and wonder at what might have been - You must know the feeling Rik?
Everyone but me seems to be finding party members who are switching round to their preferred candidate. And I’m finding party members who (like me) aren’t strongly partisan for any of the candidates.
106- Peter
Yes, John Major did win in 1992 leaving the party with a majority of 21 down from 103, before presiding over the worst period in Tory memory which the party is still trying to overcome today.
Justine Greening - when she made her acceptance speech on election night she made my flesh crawl. I just thought to myself “this person is probably someone the Tories think is sexy”
113 - Stonch, that’s one thing we agree on! Definitely Not My Type, and I can’t see what people see in her.
105 david
So as a DD supporter who has repeatedly acknowledged that DD is not the greatest orator in the world and who has said he will row in behind DC (even though I fear he will prove to be a panacea) if he is victorious. What is/who are “My lot” then ?
NOT prove to be a Panacea !
A bit of news that I’ve heard from an uncle of mine who is a friend of Jeremy Hunt, Conservative MP for SW Surrey. JH is backing DC according to him.
Am I the only punter who thinks that the Betfair prices now pretty much reflect the reality of the situation?
[58] and [60}. Village idiot, eh. Possibly, but not on the evidence of my post on [17]. KC, like all the candidates, is aware of this site. There was a short, simple, in-character post on here, signed by him. Whether or not it actually was from him, is immaterial.
I was trying to make this simple obsevation. By declining in advance to help his party in opposing GB unless he is leader, shows a lack of altruism. You could describe as selfish; if you agree with his stance, you’d call it honest.
I am merely observe that it is relevant. MPs, of all parties, (and councillors) are much less selfish than outsiders believe. KC’s approach looks an unattractive and self-centred attitude to me.
117. Jeremy Hunt actually declared for DC last week. For rolling updates see conservativehome.com as the most authoritative guide.
105 - Oh my apologies I assumed you were from the party right who would fall behind Fox if Davis gets knocked out. By your lot I had meant the right of the party who seem more concerned with right-wing ideology than trying to win elections.
It is the idea that “clear blue water” is whats needed that has been upsetting me.
In actual fact I will happily fall behind Davis if we pick him as he’s a decent politician who has proved to be a good shadow home secretary. It’s Liam Fox that I truly couldn’t support as he seems off his rocker in rightist la la land.
Firstly sorry for saying village idiot, only fooling around and no offence intended bredren!
However can I say in response to this:
“There was a short, simple, in-character post on here, signed by him. Whether or not it actually was from him, is immaterial.”
I personally think it is quite material whether or not he wrote it!
121 - exactly. Fox is the danger candidate.
Clarke would be popular with the public but might slit the party.
Fox would be unpopular with the public and WOULD split the party.
119 - David, which thread was the comment made on? I can’t find it.
A straw poll of my friends who have a passing interest in politics suggests that Clarke would steal a good few votes from the Lib Dems and the liberal wing of the Labour party, but have very little appeal to the ex Tory voters who went over to Labour in the 90s.
Dr Tammy Nagalingham is supporting Cameron by the way.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SDP-Liberal_Alliance
127 - revelations from Rik’s sordid past
124 - I think the original comment that made me jump at Tory boy was 57 on this thread. It seemed like defensive Davis-dom which I mistakenly took as being from the party right. my mistake
128 - Of course Tabman. He needs his 20 year fix of heady excitement
59. 105. 121. You seem to be labouring under the illusion that DC is a left wing Tory. He isn’t. Not as blatantly right wing as Fox, for sure, but if he is more electable, no problem for most right wing Tories like me.
127 - your link led me to go on a quick but quite rambling little websurf which led to this rogue’s gallery. Total off subject, but very very funny.
http://www.wyreforest.gov.uk/council/councillors/party_7.htm
Re 122:
I wish to announce in the privacy of Pb.com (which I follow with interest) that I will not be anybodys deputy.
It is simple economics I have been promised the deputy chairmanship of Boot Alliance (Unichem) and BAT - why oh Why would I give those up if the party was daft enough to ignor their best chance of an electable leader (me!)
Comment by K. Clarke — 7/10/2005 @ 9:57 am
One of my better posts - still talked about 4 days later. Have now learned how to spell ignore (but never seen point of the e on the end).
Most of the other posts are by Jack or Tabman (his Rik W still makes me laugh) - he even paid someone at the PB party to pretend to be him!!!
David,
Absolutely no apologies needed, we’re all team Tory !
I am from the Right and will support Davis & Fox but would knuckle down if it turns out to be DC.
I’m also an unreconstructed principle before power individual as well as being a believer that clear blue water is the only way we are ever going to be able to offer the electorate a viable alternative when they eventually are ready to consider listening to us.
I don’t pretend to be clever enough to say I’m right, merely that those are my unswerving beliefs.
Can I ask though, as I’m genuinely mystified by some of the hostility being pointed towards Foxy, what it is that marks him out as being “a nutter” in your (or others)opinion.
What policies does he propagate or espouse that lead people to such a polarised view please ?
131 - You underestimate my knowledge. I know full well where in the party DC stands as well as anyone here (assuming DC or his staff aren’t here right now). But what he says is that we need to seek to win elections and he knows we won’t so that with espousing right-wing union-flag underpant stuff like the Liam Fox speech last week.
I think a real lefty in the party has more chance which is why my heart still says Ken but as a realist in a right-wing party (most of the left have less stomach for an internal debate than I do) I think Cameron might well be our best bet for power without splitting the party.
But yes I would continue banging my little one-nation drum in a party led by David Davis but would be forced to pack up and finally go away (though not to another party) should Dr Fox take over.
{122] No apology required. I rather prefer that, than what happens to my other posts, which seem to be ignored.
[124] This thread, Tabman. Thanks for asking.
133 - Who paid Steve McFadden’s (aka Phil Mitchell’s) excessive fees to attend the PB party as Tabman?
134
Wants to pick fights with China and Iran.
Wants to restrict a woman’s right to have an abortion.
Wants to make Britain more like America.
Oh and by the way he lied about that Natalie Imbruglia thing the little fool.
132 your link gave me the best laugh I have had for weeks. Who says the ‘I always knit my own Fair Trade Organic Yoghurt’ Liberals are dead?
132 + 139 - Ha ha ha. Which poster is this: http://www.wyreforest.gov.uk/council/councillors/mem21.htm
66. Mike Smithson. The point is that a party leader should rule a country, not doing a cabaret performance to entertain you. When PR skills, spin and personality are more important than policies, it means that the situation is sad, very sad. Politics has been downgranded by this “cult of personality”. When Cameron’s school is more important than David Willets’ 2 brains.
If British voters won’t go to vote becuase their party leaders don’t have charisma, maybe it means that the government, instead to try to spread democracy in the world, should teach the importance of democracy to their citizens.
I suppose you’re supporting Glenda’s leadership bid. She’s charismatic and it seems it’s the only quality a politician should have according to you.
Ok, you won’t have a pint with Brown. Does this make him a bad politician? NO!
I could list all the politicians I would go out with and I would be scared to see the majority of them as PM.
132 Stonch. Priceless !!
Toryboy - Surely if you hear Fox speak you can see why he’s unelectable? He’s a brilliant public speaker but that’s because people who are very right-wing usually are!
They pick a phantom menace (in his case lefties) and just abuse them randomly. He just seems utterly unelectable in modern Britain to me.
Oh but financially I’ll be better off if he wins since I lumped into him from the moment MH announced his retirement as in my fatalist certainty that we’re doomed to pick ever more right-wing leaders until the party finally splits like Labout in the early 80’s I thought he might come through as the right’s alternative to DD.
Sadly my antennae wasn’t faulty
138 - I dislike Fox too but you’re going to have to do a bit better than that. Points 3 and 4 need to be substantiated!
How nice to see you again Sophia - who will you be voting for? Sorry if I have missed any of your posts
137
66 - Mike.
It really hurts but once again I agree, a Brown/Davis/Kennedy would probably mean that the only people paying attention would be the most faithful of pb.com alumni
Much as it hurts to say, and it could be a mark of political maturity more than the fact that my preferred brand of Owenite Politics seems to have found fresh hospitable ground both on the left of the Tory party as well as the right of the Labour Party… who knows… a Brown lead Labour Party is going to encounter real problems against, what could well be, a more dynamic and energised Cameroonian Tory Party, the risk is also there for the LibDems’ in that they could face a solidified Labour vote on their left and a revived and expanded Tory vote to their right threatening some of their gains from 2005 as well as some of their rural/suburban seats.
As I say though, can you imagine Brown’s Labour Party holding Dorset South, Selby, Thanet South, Hove etc… against the backdrop of a slowing down economy in the face of a recovering Tory Party lead by Cameron, I just don’t see it. All this would suggest that anyone with the gumpshon to challenge Brown for the leadership might do better than expected, I had a feeling that the endorsement of Brown by most of the cabinet would come just as things began to get complicated… overall I’d say that Hillary Benn might the best bet against David Cameron, and not Brown.
Labour also needs a better and fresher line of attack than “he went to Eton” which Brown used at Conference, I mean it was a pretty weak barb if you ask me, then again the whole angle of attacking the Tories over Black Wednesday and the 80’s is getting a bit old… but I don’t suppose anyone will wake up to the fact
Which of his brains told Mr Willets to support David Davis?
145 - The C&C Music Factory.
132/142. Fran Oborski could soon become of my favourites!
150 & others - I bet they’ve had more hits on their website this afternoon than for the whole of their time in office…
Liberal renaissance - you heard it first on Politicalbetting.com!
148 - the one that said “He’ll win and I want a top job”.
147. Ben. I think you’re all under-estimating Brown and you’ll be proven wrong (now, I start to make this bold claims too. everyone makes them here anyway).
As long people here continue to talk bad about Brown, I’m confident he’ll perform well.
148 - the one that said “He’ll win and I want a top job”.
140 - yes you have correctly identified Paul Harrison as the most comedy Cllr in Britain
I think that the Conservatives should be somewhat wary of Cameron’s apparently social liberal agenda. My instinct is that once elected he will be looking for some sort of “clause 4 moment” to show that the party has changed (I’m sure he realises just as Tony Blair did that an attractive leader will only get so far). I think that issue will be on some sort of socially liberal issue. I don’t know what, but there will be one. This is why Cameron is the sh*t or bust candidate (whereas Davis, despite what some people suggest on here, is the “moderate progress” candidate”). If he takes on his party and wins then it could be onwards and upwards to power. (although only “could” - the wider electorate are far more socially conservative than the London political classes often believe) The important thing is that it will be an issue to be got out of the way 2 years before the election, allowing the GE itself to be fought on traditional issues. The risk of course is that he takes on his party and loses - and that will happen unless the party really understands the reasons for Tony Blair’s success. He’s not just a pretty face.
138 “Wants to pick a fight with China and Iran”
Ignoring the pejorative. What’s wrong with a strong foreign policy.
When I last checked he wasn’t threatening or advocating nuking Shanghai.
Iran is clearly a major concern at the moment (a la bespoke grouping of European ‘partners’) who all agree there is an issue with their IAEA indiscipline.
“Want’s to restrict a woman’s right to abortion”
I’m pro choice myself, but is the current system perfect ? I don’t believe so. When you have babies surviving premature birth at the same age others are being aborted there is a moral issue.
I wouldn’t argue it should be ‘policy’ but it should surely be questioned.
“Want’s to make Britain more like America”
So do I.No defence offered. Clearly though we would all(I hope) look for a stronger safety net for those that cannot help themselves
“Natalie Imbruglia”
We can all dream can’t we !
151 - Maybe I could be to the old Liberal Party what Kilroy was to UKIP!
Tory Boy - the America thing - that is where we differ. America is no model for Britain.
Even if being more like the US WAS desirable (which it ain’t IMO)many of the preconditions necessary for an American-style society just aren’t present in the UK.
Ben. 150. I know that this is off topic, and that spelling (see Icarus’ ‘ignor’) is not wholly important to the general well being of this thread, but the word is ‘gumption’ not ‘gumpshon’. The problem with a spelling error - as opposed to a typo - is that the reader ends up focussed on it, rather than the point that you are trying to make. I apologise for my pedantry, but please try harder in the future.
157 Tory Boy. I never had you down as a Tory Wet Dream