The PB.C Tory Leadership Predictor Award - Round 1
October 15th, 2005
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How many votes will each get in Tuesday’s ballot?
We’ve argued about it for six months and on Tuesday the first ballots will be cast in the 2005 Tory leadership election. How is this going to go?
The competition has been devised by Paul Maggs who will handle the entries.
Instructions: How many votes will each of the candidates receive in the first ballot of MPs on 18th October? Your total should not exceed 198.
For each of the candidates, your score is simply the difference between your prediction and the result. Your score for the candidates is then added up. The player with the lowest overall score will win the competiton.
Please post your entry before 6pm on Monday evening.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Davis 59 Cameron 54 Fox 43 Clarke 42
Davis 57 Cameron 48 Fox 47 Clarke 46
Davis 64 Cameron 57 Fox 40 Clark 37
Davis 70
Cameron 51
Fox 44
Clarke 33
Dave Besag
Davis 72, Cameron 48, Clarke 40, Fox 38.
Davis 66 Cameron 55 Fox 39 Clarke 35
David Davis 60
David Cameron 58
Ken Clarke 31
Liam Fox 48
David Cameron 64
Kenneth Clarke 45
David Davis 50
Liam Fox 39
Davis 70
Cameron 48
Clarke 41
Fox 37
Davis 67
Cameron 60
Clarke 37
Fox 34
DD 71
DC 49
LF 41
KC 35
Davis: 62 votes
Cameron: 52 votes
Fox: 44 votes
Clarke: 40 votes
Davis: 70
Cameron: 51
FOx: 43
Clarke: 34
Simon C
David Davis – 63 (66)*
David Cameron – 53 (34)
Liam Fox – 43 (20)
Kenneth Clark – 39 (23)
*- Declared support, at least at the moment.
If, as I’, starting to expect, Davis falls short of his declared level of support on the first ballot and Fox has survived… I think the risk to the Davis Camp of defections to both Fox and Cameron becomes very real, it is even possible – though still unlikely – that a poor performance in the first round might mean that defections to Cameron and Fox leave Davis in third place with most of Clark’s support flowing to Cameron.
Davis 75; Cameron 49; Fox 37; Clark 35
Davis 62, Cameron 52, Fox 45, Clarke 39
Round One Prediction:
Davis - 68
Cameron - 52
Fox - 40
Clarke - 38
DD - 68 DC - 43 KC - 43 LF 43 Abstentions 1
Davis 70
Cameron 50
Fox 43
Clark 35
Davis 61
Cameron 55
Fox 42
Clarke 40
Earlier I had thought it more likely that Fox would be the first one to go, but considering the developments of the past week and the Cornerstone endorsements, I now believe that Fox will edge Clarke just slightly.
Davis 74
Cameron 54
Clarke 37
Fox 33
I suggest:
1: the score should be the sum of the ABSOLUTE values of the errros, not the erros, which sum to zero.
2: as a tie breaker, let the winner be the lowest ‘variance’, i.e the sum of the squares of the errors, the measure a statistician would propose. E.g. an entry whose largest error = 2 must be either 2,-2,0,0 or 2,-1,-1,0. Both score 4. However the variance of the 1st = (2×2) +(-2x-2)=8, and of the 2nd = (2×2)+(-1x-1)+(-1x-1)=6. So the 2nd wins.
Davis 66 Cameron 54 Fox 42 Clarke 36
Mark !!
What are we going to do with you …..
Best regards
Davis 59
Cameron 54
Fox 48
Clarke 37
Davis 78
Clarke 44
Cameron 42
Fox 34
Davis 60
Cameron 54
Fox 44
Clarke 39
Abstentions 2
Davis 67
Clarke 45
Fox 44
Cameron 42
sorry, re-alter last entry, I did not add it up properly, that should be:
David Davis: 72
David Cameron: 52
Ken Clarke: 38
Liam Fox: 36
Davis 72
Cameron 46
Fox 45
Clarke 33
Davis: 64
Cameron: 49
Fox: 43
Clarke: 42
Davis 64
Cam 54
Fox 42
clarke38
Davis 73
Cameron 49
Fox 39
Clarke 37
Davis 74
Cameron 56
Clarke 35
Fox 33
Davis 62
Cameron 59
Fox 41
Clark 36
My prediction is:
Davis 66 Cameron 60 Fox 43 Clarke 29
DD 49: DC 49: KC 49: LF 49. DNV or abstain 2
Davis 69, Cameron 46, Fox 44, Clarke 38 with one abstainer
Davis 65
Cameron 55
Fox 42
Clarke 36
Mike at 37. Ha ha ha ha ha. Want a bet on that outcome?
I’ve got two nagging feelings. Firstly that Cameron will exit on Tuesday and secondly that Somehow, Fox will end up as leader. Yeah weird, ain’t it?
DD 70
DC 50
LF 40
DC 38
Clarke out in the first round… most of his votes will transfer to Cameron which sadly means that Foxy will be out before the dispicable Davis
DD 70 DC 48 LF 42 KC 38
Bye Ken. KC’s supporters then go to DC, and then DC v DD for the members to choose between.
I promise I didn’t look at Calvert’s post before I did my prediction. Honest! Great minds think alike I guess.
I guess someone should cover the Cameroonie’s wet dream, so:
DC 60
DD 59
LF 41
KC 37
Oops! Cameroonie’s -> Cameroonies’
I think I am the highest for Davis (78) - surely if 66 come out openly for him there must be more secret fans?
Lets see if lightning strikes twice. Im not very confident about this though
Davis 71
Cameron 57
Clarke 33
Fox 37
40 - This is the Tory party we’re talking about so anything is possible.
Davis 63
Cameron 58
Fox 38
Clarke 37
Part of the cumulative effect or tabloid desperation ?
Associated Press.
New twist to Conservative drugs row
22:50pm 15th October 2005
The Conservative drugs controversy has taken a new twist after a Sunday newspaper printed a picture of a youthful George Osborne with his arm around a woman described as a “cocaine-snorting hooker”.
The shadow chancellor - a close ally of beleaguered Tory leadership contender David Cameron - denied taking drugs with Natalie Rowe.
The News of the World reported that the 34-year-old, married father of two admitted that he knew her, and acknowledged that one of his best friends fathered her child and became a drug addic
Mr Osborne’s close friend Mr Cameron, the shadow education secretary, is himself embroiled in a controversy over his refusal to state categorically whether he used drugs during his university years.
On Friday, Mr Cameron acknowledged that a close family member went through a “dreadful problem” with narcotics, adding that he was “incredibly proud” of the way his relative had come through their difficulties.
Mr Osborne has suggested that he was the victim of a “smear campaign”.
In a statement, the Tatton MP said: “The allegations are completely untrue, and dredging up a photo from when I was 22 years old is pretty desperate stuff.
“This is merely part of an absurd smear campaign to divert attention from the issues that matter in this leadership contest, and I am confident that people will not be distracted by this rubbish.”
Mr Osborne did not expand on his suggestion that someone is running a smear campaign.
A senior Tory spokesman stressed that Mr Osborne’s denial of any wrongdoing covered “any allegations of drug taking with her (Ms Rowe)”
Ken Clarke: 59
David Davis: 58
David Cameron: 47
Liam Fox: 36
Cameron and Fox drop out Clarke beats Davis in a (very) close contest.
(though part of me thinks that Cameron might even come last)
50 - Despicable. Shows the depraved lengths to which the gutter press will go to sell a few newspapers.
The man was 22!Good heavens! I dare say that I’ve been at parties where drugs have been taken, what more I’m sure I’ve been in the company of less than savoury characters from time to time and especially at the melting pot that is university… but goodness me does this mean that we should dig up what Charles Clark did while he was the hard left president of the NUS or Tony Blair when he was modelling himself on Mick Jagger in “ugly rumours” where up to?
Certainly Not!
…I’m surprised that the News of the Word would come out with something like this, though I doubt it reflects on Murdoch’s own views, it’s a pretty weak story if you ask me… “at the age of twenty two a future shadow minister was photographed with someone who took drugs” what kind of story is that!
Davis: 62
Cameron: 58
Fox: 38
Clarke: 34
Ab: 6
David Davis - 67
David Cameron - 53
Liam Fox - 45
Kenneth Clarke - 33
Davis 69
Fox 52
Cameron 48
Clarke 29
Clarke and Cameron then drop out.
Davis 70
Cameron 52
Fox 50
Clarke 26
Davis 75
Cameron 45
Clark 39
Fox 39
Fox 34
Clarke 34
I mean…..
Davis 75
Cameron 45
Clark 39
Fox 39
So far here, the running is (miscalculations possible, mean predicted vote ± standard deviation):
)
…Davis 66 ± 6.1, Cameron 52 ± 4.9, Fox 42 ± 4.3, Clarke 38 ± 5.4
(This is not an entry!
DD - 68
DC - 55
KC - 38
LF - 35
Cameron will win the membership ballot I think.
That was only taking up to no.57 into account.
DD 69
DC 54
LF 40
KC 33
Ab 2
David Davis - 65
David Cameron - 64
Liam Fox - 40
Ken Clarke - 29
Just to be different/a little bit of wish fulfillment over reality.
Ken Clarke, realising his game is up responds to DD’s courtship over ‘one nation’ Conservatism and his less anti European approach than DC and LF and withdraws, offering Davis his full backing.
His 30 or so votes split evenly, permitting shenagins to take place.
DD 85
LF 57
DC 56
KC 00
That cake I brought back from Amsterdam sure tasted good !!
Davis 68, Cameron 52, Fox 48 , Clarke 30.
DD 66
DC 59
LF 39
KC 34
David Davis: 60
David Cameron: 59
Liam Fox: 40
Ken Clarke: 34
Abstain/DNV: 5
DD-76
DC-51
KC-40
LF-31
Davis 69
Cameron 48
Fox 44
Clarke 37
DD 65
LF 35
KC 25
DC 73
Davis68, Cameron56, Clarke38, Fox36
Davis 63
Cameron 53
Clarke 45
Fox 37
Tuesday’s vote:
David (Dead Duck) Davis 66
Cameron 56
Clarke 38
Fox 38
Davis 64
Cameron 66
Fox 35
Clarke 32
All over,bar the shouting (and whingeing)!
Davis 62
Cameron 63
Clarke 39
Fox 34
Davis 60
Cameron 51
Fox 37
Clarke 50
Davis: 64
Cameron: 53
Clarke: 44
Fox: 37
Davis 69 Cameron 55 Fox 38 Clarke 32
I know it doesn’t add up to 198 and I’d wager that fewer than 198 will vote …
Davis 66
Cameron 66
Fox 33
Clarke 33
Davis - 63
Cameron - 58
Fox - 45
Clarke - 29
80. Interesting scenario. Fox and Clarke should both take the sensible option and withdraw. That would leave two candidates and no need for a second ballot. But the eventual winner would have the support of only one third of Tory MPs. Roll on the next Tory leadership election in 2007/8!
My two-penneth…
DD 59 (and getting less than number declared will mark the mass movement of his votes in the next round)
DC 56 (Will still be shy of DD’ total)
KC 44 (Will get some tactical DD votes to eliminated LF)
LF 39 (LF will be toast after the first round)
DD 67
DC 53
LF 41
KC 37
Davis 62
Cameron 54
Clarke 42
Fox 39
OK Im gonna stick my neck out and post a prediction:
David Davis 68
David Cameron 51
Liam Fox 42
Kenneth Clarke 37
I do think the Cameron “drugs” story has damaged him. I know of two MPs who were likely to declare for him this weekend who are holding off until Monday or maybe wont actually declare at all. It has made some MPs think again about him.
86 - Rik: Probably shouldn’t be posting this on here, but I don’t see that you’ve been active on any of the other threads, so here goes:
How bad do you perceive the damage to have been and has it caused you to rethink your support? My impression had been that he’d stood up to it all very well, but you’re obviously hearing something different.
Thanks.
Davis: 62
Cameron: 56
Clarke: 42
Fox: 38
I think that Davis is beginning to come apart, and if he gets fewer votes than his declared support his campaign will rapidly unravel. Cameron will do respectably, and (perhaps the optimist in me!) thinks that Rifkind and Lansley have steadied the good ship Ken to allow him to survive.
Now all we need is for Davis for collapse completely for that delicious Cameron-Clarke run-off :).
Davis 66
Clarke 52
Fox 43
Cameron 35
87 - I am absolutely committed to support Cameron and think this is all a big storm in a teacup. However, there are quite a few MPs I have spoken to who think he could or should have been more open and have some concern about what he MIGHT ( I stress “might”) actually have done. I was told by someone I believe to be reliable that DC expected about 2 declarations each day up til Tues. The fact that this hasnt happened confirms to me that some MPs are less than impressed with the story and are thinking more carefully about declaring for DC.
Incidentally, I predicted that DDs support would NOT collapse after conference and that at most one or two MPs might reconsider their support for him. I think that has proven to have been an accurate assessment. No-one has publicly reneged on their support for DD and only a couple might privately switch in the first ballot. However, I am told that a lot feel that they will have fulfilled their loyalty pledge in the first ballot and that all bets are off in the second. I therefore expect a solid DD performance in the first ballot and a sizeable switch away in the second (assuming DC pulls through the current drugs story).
We will see on Tues.
90 - Thanks Rik. When you originally mentioned the 2 declaration a day strategy for Cameron I thought that it made quite a lot of sense and I will admit to wondering (as others have on this site) why there have been no public declarations for him since last week. I can understand MPs wanting to be cautious when there is a whiff of controversy in the air so it’s not that difficult to explain, but it now seems as though nothing damaging is going to come out in time for the ballot on Tuesday and the press coverage has been very positive.
As a Cameron supporter, I think I would be slightly disappointed if there weren’t a couple more declarations for DC over the next 36 hours anyway. What do you think?
91 - AHM - OK again I will stick my neck out and say that I anticipate several DC declarations and several Fox declarations on Monday - gulp!
92 - Sounds good to me then, but don’t worry - I won’t hold you to it.
I’ll be happy enough with a good result on Tuesday, publicly declared votes or not.
Davis - 64
Cameron - 55
Fox - 41
Clarke - 38
90. Rik - I am a bit worried by your comment about DD defections in the second round.
Like you I am a Cameron supporter but the last thing I want is for DD to collapse in second round and therefore let Fox into the final.
Is there a risk of this? Surely anyone thinking of defecting from DD to DC will realise this and stay with DD to ensure final is DC v DD (as long as it’s obvious DC will make the final anyway).
Davis - 58
Cameron - 55
Fox - 47
Clarke - 38
Davis 61 Cameron 52 Clarke 45 Fox 40
Davis: 62
Cameron: 56
Fox: 40
Clarke: 38
Davis - 56 (Tactical voting to eliminate Cameroon)
Clarke - 48 (Always gets more votes than expected)
Fox - 47 (Tactical votes from Davis)
Cameroon - 46 (Shafted… another leadership election within 12months when he’ll stand again and win)
Abstain - 1
Davis, 60
Cameron 58
Clarke 42
Fox 38
In alphabetical Order of course as announced by Michael Spicer
David Cameron 43
Ken Clarke 44
David Davis 64
Liam Fox 47
Some tactical voting from DD camp against Cameron as I have been arguing will happen (although probably not sanctioned by Davis..rather a personal decision by a few of his supporters)
DD 75
DC 51
LF 40
KC 32
DC v LF runoff I think. It’s too tight for too many tactical votes surely?
Banana on another thread I said you had created 10 new MPs when I did my first average of the predictions the night before last. My apologies it was me being creative and typing in numbers far too late at night. You were spot on the total.
DD 71 DC 52 LF41 KC34
DC 60
DD 58
KC 46
LF 33
Davis 68
Cameron 61
Clarke 28
Fox 38
DD 68 DC 58 LF 37 KC 35
Davis 67
Cameron 59
Clarke 34
Fox 34
I decided to do the maths on the results (up to 106) and find the average.
You’ve given Davis 5522, Cameron 4491, Clarke 3156 and Fox 3425 which equates to:
David Cameron 53
Kenneth Clarke 38
David Davis 66
Dr. Liam Fox 41
Still too close to call, really!
DD - 72
DC - 58
LF - 36
KC - 32
DD 64
DC 56
LF 48
KC 30
David Cameron- 49
Ken Clarke- 46
David Davis- 60
Liam Fox- 39
4 Abstentions.
Still think Ken has a chance…
David Davis - 60
David Cameron - 57
Ken Clarke - 35
Liam Fox - 46
davis = 72
Clarke = 44
Cameron = 43
fox = 39
Cameroon 60
Dave Davis 55
Our Ken 45
Liam Foxed 35
Abstain 3
David Davis 68
David Cameron 60
Liam Fox 34
Kenneth Clarke 34
Not voting 2
Total 198
DD 58
DC 57
LF 45
KC 38
DD 47
DC 48
LF 52
KC 49
Only just spotted this post…and only an hour or so to call it:
Not sure it’ll happen, but most people here have gone for DD mid 60s, so I’ll gamble put him higher. The lack of pressure of being a newbie!
DD-76
DC-47
KC-38
LF-37
Davis 70
Cameron 52
Fox 39
Clarke 37
DD 62
DC 50
KC 46
LF 39
Abstain 1
Davis 68
Cameron 51
Fox 41
Clarke 38
I think Sara’s (pretty)(close).
DD 69
DC 52
LF 40
KC 37
okay, not long to go now - I’ll stick my neck out and opt for the following :-
David Davis: 69 (only limited bleed to all others, including KC, topped up by a few undeclared but strong DD supporters)
Ken Clarke: 45 (inc. some prematurely declared DDers, not necessarily the one’s you’d suspect - will we ever know who?; a mischeivous soul or two tactically voting or who doesn’t want to see DC handed the leadership on silver salver; an MP or two with a seat vulnerable to Labour or the Lib Dems who quietly voting for self preservation
David Cameron: 43 (DC’s apparent status as flavour of the month not quite reflected so strongly in the privacy of the ballot box by a less excitable parliamentary party?)
Liam Fox: 41 (many but far from all the undeclared ‘right’ plus and a few others who think he has a nice smile and who dont like DD’s bullies; not much as much, sactioned or otherswise, tactical voting for Fox as often mooted - DD camp don’t know if they can spare any; they quite like the idea of (need?)the boost for their man in round 2 from a early Fox departure; the potential for supporters of the remaining ‘right’ candidate to pick the DD’s opponent in the countrywide vote (ie knife DC and try their luck against KC)
Davis 61 Cameron 54 Fox 47 Clarke 35 Abstention 1
DD 62
DC 51
KC 42
LF 41
Hope I’m not too late but I am going for the shock result:
Cameron 59
Davis 58
Clarke 41
Fox 39
Abstentions 1
Davies 60 Cameron 58 Fox 44 Clarke 37
Re. 99 by Lennon: you predict Davis 56, Clarke 48 (“always gets more votes than expected”), Fox 47 (“tactical votes from Davis”), Cameron 46.
The big battle isn’t for third place, as the Grauniad suggests today; it’s for second place. If Fox comes second, as I think he probably will, he’ll almost have the leadership in the bag.
I agree that Cameron will get shafted. Who do you think will be in the runoff against Davis - Clarke or Fox? I think a choice between Clarke and Davis would upset too many people. I reckon Davis vs Fox, and that Fox will probably win.
Whatever, the price on Fox makes him very good value.
A late punt before the off . I wanted to see the runners in the parade ring before making my decision. (Cameron’s lass won the £50 for best turned-out).
Davis: 71
Cameron: 51
Clarke: 40
Fox: 36
Davis 70; Cameron 48; Fox 40; Clarke 39
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