Tory hopefuls survive the Sundays’ test
October 16th, 2005-
But the News of the World has a splash about George Osborne
After the mounting speculation that at least one of the Sunday papers was trying to “find dirt” on Tory contender, David Cameron, the Shadow Education Secretary and betting favourite seems to have escaped unscathed this morning.
There is a big story, however, in the News of the World showing a picture of Cameron’s close colleague and campaign chief, George Osborne, with his arms round a woman described as a “cocaine-snorting hooker”. The shadow Chancellor denies taking drugs with her and points out that he was just 22 years old when the picture was taken. Several papers, including the Telegraph feature, Osborne claiming that there is a smear campaign going on and that this is pretty desperate stuff.
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But Osborne is not a candidate and from my 3am survey it appears that there is nothing in the papers about things untoward in Cameron’s past
There maybe articles that are not on websites yet but I have been unable to find them. There can be little doubt that a huge amount of journalistic investigation has been going on over the past few days focused on Cameron and it must be comforting to his camp that no youthful indiscretions are being reported. The Mail on Sunday, which had been reported to be digging hard, runs the Osborne story.
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So after a week of intense digging and mounting speculation all the tabloids have come up with is something about another Tory MP when he was 22 years old. This is pretty tame stuff.
The Observer, meanwhile, has Michael Portillo, urging Cameron to continue his policy of refusing to answer questions.
Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer, who kicked this story off two weeks ago with his initial question to Cameron, says he believe he has done the Shadow Education Secretary a favour. “…The drugs bust-up is the first time that he has ever been tested in the sort of firestorm that politicians of the front rank must be capable of dealing with. One of the many great unknowns about him is whether he has the character, the grit and the deftness to cope with pressure at this level. If he cannot deal with this successfully, then he is unlikely to be much use to his party as a leader, nor much of an offer to the voters as a candidate for Prime Minister. His party needs to know whether he can hack it. So does the country. So does he. He may not think so, and I didn’t intend to, but by kicking all this off, I now think I may even have done him a favour.”
On the betting markets there has been a slight move to David Davis who is now below 2/1 on the betting exchanges. Cameron remains the strong odds-on favourite.
Leadership Betting
Best betting exchange prices; Cameron 0.84/1: Davis 1.97/1: Clarke 13.5/1: Fox 9/1
Best bookmaker prices; Cameron 4/6: Davis 11/5: Clarke 8/1: Fox 8/1
Mike Smithson
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After all the speculation, the mail even does an interview with Cameron…under the headline “in the kitchen with the camerons”.
From my scan of the papers so far, it’s generally positive to cameron
Several weeks until the contest is over though, they won’t be abandoning their grubby little searches just yet.
Cameron’s campaign team (with the sad exception of George Osborne) must be very relieved at how this has all worked out thus far - I agree with Rawnsley’s analysis (which I can tell you does not happen very often) in that he probably has done Cameron a long term favour. The reaction so far vindicates Cameron’s decision not to play the Daily Mail’s dirty little game.
The Mail editorial still calls on Cameron to say whether he did take drugs. It concludes: “If he stays silent he leaves the party with a terrible dilemma. Pick the most promising candidate it has had for years and hope no skeletons come clattering out of the cupboard in mid-General election. Or avoid this grave risk by choosing another canddiate with a safer past, a duller present and a less exciting future”.
From BBC News:
“Former Conservative leader William Hague has urged Tory MPs not to allow the row over drugs to influence their vote in this week’s leadership contest.
His comments came as pressure increased on David Cameron to reveal whether he had taken drugs at university.
Rival David Davis said he believed anyone who had used hard drugs in the recent past was not suitable to succeed Michael Howard.
Mr Cameron has so far refused to answer any questions over drug use.
Mr Hague said people should not be for or against Mr Cameron because he may or may not have taken drugs at university.
He said if everyone who had ever taken drugs was denied a top post there would be some pretty big gaps in the higher ranks of most professions.”
5. Could that be a hint about Mr H’s voting intention…
I think the Osborne story is the most despicable piece of gutter journalism I have seen in many years. So determined to do a ‘Tory Moderniser in Hard drugs Scandal’ story that they just pick on even the most tenuous of claims. Thankfully I think most people will see it for the ruthless smear attempt that it is.
“He said if everyone who had ever taken drugs was denied a top post there would be some pretty big gaps in the higher ranks of most professions.”
Absolutely Alastair. And what about ‘ordinary people’ too? So are you and all your fellow Tories going to join me and say that the drug laws are ludicrous as they criminalise all sorts of people who maybe just experimenting, or are ’social users’ etc etc. Are you going to say that we need serious reform that looks at the drug laws in a sophisticated and adult manner, free from the hypocrisy and exaggeration of the Daily Mail / Daily Express approach.
Or is Mr Hague saying that the Tories are going to continue with their traditional approach of saying it’s alright if ‘people in higher professions’ (i.e. Tory voters, potential Tory leaders, doners) do whatever they like as long as they don’t get caught and it won’t matter because the police are mainly targetting the estates and there ain’t much in the way of votes there.
This is a serious question that should be brought up by this row. I read somewhere that Cameron was a ’social liberal’ on drug reform. Is this true? Has he got the guts to say it so soon to a crucial vote? Let’s hear the future of the Tory Party take on his party on a big issue and win them over. All this Rawnsley stuff about mettle - that would show us real mettle.
7 - Very well said Paul , perhaps the one good thing that has come out of all this is that Conservative politicians will not be able in future to come out with platitudinous and sanctimonious comments on being hard on drugs without addressing the serious issues that lie behind the whole issue .
Not sure where the £scandal story” is in the NOFTW’s piece.
Not sure if Portillo’s advice is right, but then Portillo is a hypocrite.
“perhaps the one good thing that has come out of all this is that Conservative politicians will not be able in future to come out with platitudinous and sanctimonious comments on being hard on drugs without addressing the serious issues that lie behind the whole issue”.
MArk, you are such a good-hearted chap. In fact, not only will they continue to do so, but they will do so before this leadership campaign is over.
10 - Peter , I am touched that someone on here thinks I am good hearted . What with tory boy/bot agreeing with one of my posts yesterday , I think I will have to consider joining Nulab LOL
12 Morning Mark !
12. Tory Boy, don’t importune Mark only becuase Jack refused to join you in Bromley!
CommunicateResearch for The Independent on Sunday:
Labour led by Brown 44%
Conservative led by Cameron 26%
Labour led by Brown 45%
Conservative led by Davis 26%
Brown would defeat Cameron and Davis among Libdems voters and between people who stayed at home.
Davis is performing better than Cameron among the under 25, while Cameron is performing better than Davis in the 55-64 age group
14. Full data:
http://www.communicateresearch.com/poll.php?id=67
Yes - Mail on Sunday seems to reign in the attack dogs and by running a poll backing up Cameron and a nice story in his kitchen, they seem to be reducing their chance for future attack in my view.
Regarding the independent poll - I simply do not buy that. On those figures Labour would seemingly be stronger than in 1997 and the Tories and Lib Dems might as well go home.
16.”Regarding the independent poll - I simply do not buy that. On those figures Labour would seemingly be stronger than in 1997 and the Tories and Lib Dems might as well go home.”
Not sure why every poll showing Brown doing well should be dismissed and every poll showing Cameron doing well should be seen as the absolute truth.
Andrea.The pictures in the NOTW story are quite ‘damning’. Admittedly Osborn is not actually pictured with his ’snout in the trough’ as it were, but there are white lines all over the table in front of him - and he is the Shadow Chancellor. I refer to my previous question - is the Cameron team going to make a pledge to the Tory Party that it will tackle drug policy in a grown up and responsible way? If so, it also begs the question, if they take this approach to drugs, will they take a more socially progressive line on all sorts of personal and social issues. This would really be a clause 4 moment. But has Cameron got the guts to try to take his aging socially Conservative membership on such a journey?
18. Paul Lloyd, I haven’t seen the photo. Have you a link to it?
The Sunday stories are as ridiculous as one would expect and if nothing else comes out of this at least Mail readers might realize that they should read it with a plain brown cover. As for this Osborne story being “the worst…..” you obviously missed the expose by “a friend of Gordon Browns ex..” printed on his wedding day?
More significant is the way Cameron is likely to be seen outside of his heartland (Notting Hill, Oxford and Eton!). He looks and sounds like ‘Tory boy’ and though he has an appeal to us on this website I wonder whether this will travel?
I saw it in the paper at the newsagent Andrea. I don’t know if it’s on the net version. I’ll have a look.
I agree Andrea that Gordon Brown is being underestimated by posters on this site but I repeat my post of last week. They are about as representative of the UK population as the Royal wives!
21. The News of the World website doesn’t have the photo.
The NOTW article says that there’s a “a separate picture of the same night shows Osborne apparently singing and dancing with another young man dressed in a red-striped T-shirt and faded jeans”. Not sure where’s the problem in Osborne dancing.
23 - Have you seen him dance?
I personally am one of the people who “underestimate” Gordon Brown. Gordon Brown may be a great tactician but that does make him a great manager.
22.”They are about as representative of the UK population as the Royal wives!”
Roger, I thought you said “as represntative as the Tory wives”, but now with the Royal wives, their representativeness is even worse!
Btw, at the MP’s spouses husting, there were an husband too!
It shouldn’t be difficult to discover who he was.
24. Sophia, is he so bad?
Politicians survived worse things.
What Osborne? I have never seen him dance so I can’t answer that question.
This is becoming too tasteless. If a nobody like Osborne who only left University 12 years ago knows that any of his ex friends-collegues-aquaintances can make a packet of money selling stories or pictures then God help politics in the future. And we don’t help by regurgitating these stpid stories
As far as the poll goes, Labour seems to do better in opinion polls than ballot boxes. Also, people know what they think of Gordon Brown (even, I would suggest, to the point that if the dire predictions on the economy are borne out, people will think that Brown has stopped it being worse) - they don’t see the need yet to take a view on the next Tory leader.
Whilst the economic crises of 1967, 1976 and 1992 turned into political catastrophes for the incumbent government this was not cause and effect. All were examples of political mismanagement - Wilson’s confusion of the value of sterling with virility in the first two cases, and Major’s folly in using No. 11 as a reward for his campaign manager. (Much the same applies to Helmut Kohl’s decision to equate the deutschmark and the ostmark on re-unificiation.)
Part of the Tory problem is that they are no longer seen as being the party of sound finance, and it is far from clear what they can do about that in opposition.
28. Roger, newspapers have run stories even more stupid stories than this one in the past !
Sophia. None of us know what Brown would be like as a leader but to have towered over the Labour party for the last nine years with a powerful leader like Blair incharge indicates what we might expect. The Communicate poll probably only reflects the relative name recognition of the three candidates but can anyone remember a Chancellor with such support after holding the office for nine years?
12 Good Morning tory boy , sorry no time to post on here today Worthing Bar Billiards Masters tourney starts at 12 and I have scraped in . May be out of comp by 1 tho LOL .
31. Tory leadership contenders were on the news many times in the recent weeks. So people should start to recognize them.
Just had a flick through the Mail on Sunday. As others have said Labour’s lead with Cameron is 5%, Clarke 9%, Davis and Fox 13%. They don’t give any further breakdown of the figures though.
Everybody has his own views on DC.
But it seems crystal clear that LF has behaved much better than DD over the issue. I am amazed that he still appears to have the edge for the ‘right-wing’ vote. LF comes across as both more attractive and more trustworthy. Partly thats because of his Scots accent, which people seem to trust on financial matters (rightly or wrongly).
Completely different from the Communicate research figures but the Mail are known for using their findings very selectively.
Weren’t Communicate Research who showed that if Gordon Brown was PM during the last election the Labour MAJORITY would be something like 350?
36. I think the Mail’s question is different too.
“Just had a flick through the Mail on Sunday. As others have said Labour’s lead with Cameron is 5%, Clarke 9%, Davis and Fox 13%. They don’t give any further breakdown of the figures though”.
Actually knowing the Mail they probably ran a show of hands in the office
37. yes, one of their poll before the election showed Brown led Labour would have performed better than a Blair led Labour.
37. And CR is also able to find Plaid Cymru voters in Northern England.
17 – Andrea
“Not sure why every poll showing Brown doing well should be dismissed and every poll showing Cameron doing well should be seen as the absolute truth.”
I don’t think that’s the whole story, what I think is reasonable to argue is that any poll showing the Tories down almost 10 points! On their 2005 showing is pretty suspect.
Generally I think it’s a result of name recognition, everyone of the 5-10% of people in the country with an avid interest in politics is going to know who Cameron and Davis is for the other 90% they are best have a vague notion of who they are and at worst have no idea… precious few could name more politicians than Blair – Brown – Blunckett and Howard at the last election.
My own estimation would be that Cameron and Davis would both hold steady at 34-35% in accurate polls, once the name recognition factor has equalised. Where Cameron differs from Davis, is that if, as seems likely, the economy goes into a further slow down and at the same time Brown remains less than inspiring Cameron would have the potential to gain a lead over Labour and Brown, and it’s also conceivable that under such conditions other potential Tory leaders could gain the advantage over Brown.
In the final analysis the poll would seem to be a product of name recognition… Brown has great strengths he is a capable strategic thinker and a able authority policy but he is not nearly as original nor visionary as he seems to think nor has he humanised himself in the very successful way that Blair and now Cameron seem to have done. Cameron has weaknesses, he is inexperienced and to some his plumy background will be a turnoff, but for many voters he is the kind of person they aspire to be like, much as Blair was and still is to a certain extent… and that is something Brown is not, he is respected but not liked and its there that Cameron takes much of the appeal from both Blair and even Kennedy, as an approachable “pretty straight sorta guy”… and that will have an impact, even if you discount the likelihood of tax rises and an economic slow down during a Brown Government.
The Communicate Research details give lots of obscure facts (e.g. ‘who buys the groceries in your household?’ - obviously done in conjunction with a retail survey), but also show that the raw data give a substantial lead (I make it about 10% after DK’s are eliminated) of people who said they voted Labour in May, whereas the true figure was 3%. It’s not clear to me whether the other figures adjust for this - they are weighted, but are they weighted for that?
To blaance that possibly cheering note for Tories, it should also be said that Gordon Brown does significantly better in this one than in other recent polls. The Mail survey appears not to have mentioned Brown, and interesting shows Cameron closer behind than others, unlike the CR survey. Combining the two, it may be that when people think about Brown vs Cameron, they think ‘heavyweight vs lightweight’.
I’ve not so far commented on the drugs issue. It seems to me pretty irrelevant what Cameron did when he was (say) 20 - most of us have a few old indiscretions that we wince to recall, and I don’t think that politicians are any more required to discuss them than anyone else. The reason the Osbourne story has appeared is, I suspect, that opponents of Cameron are trying to portray the Notting Hill set as generally close to the ‘fast-living society’ class A drugs scene. People who don’t know much about the scene may find this vaguely plausible, and since Cameron is on record as favouring a more relaxed drugs policy (as do I, by the way), there is somewhat more risk to him than a suggestion that he smoked a bit of pot 20 years ago. Whether Tory MPs will feel that this outweighs his youthful appeal and favourable coverage I don’t know. If we’re honest, nobody really knows how it would work out if he became leader. The Tory membership seems up for a gamble, so we may shortly find out.
I wonder why supposedly Tory supporting papers are trying so hard to dig dirt on Cameron? If they want a Tory government why are they doing their best to destroy the only candidate with even a chance of winning an election?
The Mail also has a picture of George Osbourne. I’m not sure if its the same one as in the NOTW but if it is then I don’t think its particularly ‘damning’. There are not lines all over the table either - there is a single white mark on the table but you can’t tell if its powder and its not even cut up into a line.
“…. and to some his plumy background will be a turnoff, but for many voters he is the kind of person they aspire to be like……..”
You must know some weird people!
[14] “Davis is performing better than Cameron among the under 25, while Cameron is performing better than Davis in the 55-64 age group”
Given the demographic of the Tory Party, that probably makes DC a certainty for the leadership. I must say that the press today was quite like old times- lots of juicy Tory sleaze…
Meanwhile this Indy piece can not make good reading for any of the contenders- it does not seem to make a difference who leads the Tory party, the electorate seem indifferent.
42. Ben, with all the due respect, I completely disagree. I see the opposite of wht you see in Brown and the opposite of what you see in Blair!
Oh well, IG Index have closed their binary market on the Tory leadership.
With my usual impeccable timing, I had bought Davis just before the Cameron bandwagon got rolling :-(.
46 - Can anyone tell me who the leading politician is who was educated at Fettes, the Eton of Scotland?
50 - I expect roger will have selective amnesia on that question, Peter
alan 49. I’ve just spoken to IG who tell me that their spread market will be back up on Monday.
50 and 51 Peter and AHM. You misunderstand me. I’m sure we all admire the way Cameron has risen from a difficult background to put himself within a whisker of leading the Tory party-I was just questioning Ben’s suggestion that he was about to spawn a load of Cameron imitators!
Looking at Andrea’s link, the Communicate Research poll asked rather a bizarre question in that it forced people to choose between Labour led by Brown and Tories led by “X” with “Don’t Know” as the only other option. While interesting in some ways, it is not a true voting intention poll which I think the Mail’s poll was. The large Labour Communicate Research lead simply reflected Lib Dems splitting strongly in Labour’s favour in the absence of a Lib Dem option in the question (the figures Andrea linked to bear this out). While slightly worrying for the Tories that not all that many Lib Dems are inclined towards any potential leader at the moment, the poll doesn’t actually imply an 18% Labour lead.