Could it all be over by tomorrow night?
October 19th, 2005-
Will the runner-up tomorrow concede defeat and avoid the membership ballot?
As the BBC is reporting tonight Tory officials are preparing for the possibility that the whole Tory battle could be over this week. With so many MPs now switching to David Cameron the suggestion is being made that whoever comes second might pull out and not put the issue to the final ballot of the membership.
For this to happen Cameron would need to be so far far ahead in tomorrow’s vote that it would be hard for the runner-up in the MP’s ballot to sustain the fight. A threshold of at least 50% of MPs voting tomorrow would surely be needed.
Such a decision would mean that winning punters could be paid by the weekend.
As the chart showing the implied probability of victory based on best betting prices shows David Davis and Liam Fox have had different experiences of the leadership race in the past month but both are heading in the same direction.
Cameron has continued to pick up huge support on the betting markets during the day and now the best you can get is 1/5.
In the fight for second place Davis has retained a lead over Fox in the betting but the gap has been narrowing and it still could be Fox manages to squeeze into the runner-up place on the exchanges and with the conventional bookies. The IG Binary spread-market has now put Fox as second favourite.
In the last two Tory leadership elections David Davis has pulled out even though he did not have to. After the re-run first ballot in 2001 Davis came second from bottom but decided not to carry on his fight. In 2003 he stood aside to let Michael Howard have a clear run. Could he do the same tomorrow if the numbers do not add up?
Leadership Betting
Best betting exchange prices; Cameron 0.2/1: Davis 7.4/1: Fox 12.5/1
Best bookmaker prices; Cameron 2/11: Davis 7/1: Fox 8/1
IG’s Binary spread-market. Cameron 79-87: Davis 5-11: Fox 6-12
Mike Smithson
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This is by no means far fetched. There used to be a Tory tradition of not putting the party into unnecessarily difficult positions. That would include a bruising and expensive battle around the country, leaving scars and words that could come back and bite the candidates.
Unity used to be our watchword and should remain so.
But unless the leading candidate has more than half the possible votes then it would be difficult to argue that the second placed person should drop out. So its up to the MPs to prove they are best placed to produce a clear cut and quick result.
I think that if Cameron gets 100+ votes tomorrow then there will be overwhelming pressure on the second placed candidate to ‘do the decent thing’. Plus also the Parliamentary party would remember IDS and would not want the members to choose the guy who came second…Not that it is likely this time anyway. If it transpires then I think it can only benefit the Tories hugely…
I would think it would have to be a fair bit over 100 perhaps as high as 120 in order for a coronation to take place. If DC only just gets a majority of MP’s then the combined right of the party (LF & DD) may well feel agrieved that they haven’t had the chance to take there case to the members.
This would set a precedent that I presume the MPs would welcome.
Max: Festering agrievement may have to be pandered to - who on the right wants to be beaten fairly and squarely?
5 - No one wants to get beaten at all. I think DC would comfortably beat Fox or Davis but it would be nice to hear both sides. It would also better prepare DC for the kind of scrutiny he will come in for as opposition leader, and allow us to hear about his policies and beliefs.
If it happens DC will make only his fourth ever appearance at the despatch box next Wednesday for PMQ’s.
The BBC reports that, Ex-Clarke backer Ann Widdecombe said she was now backing Dr Fox “because I want to see him in the last two”.
Dr Fox told the BBC he wanted to lead the Tories because he wanted to see a Britain “where hard working people get to keep more of their own money, where we encourage enterprise and prosperity.”
LF is a pleasant and dedicated man but this backer and this core message in a sound bite is a real blast from the past. Either IDS or Hague could have voiced it. Indeed it was voiced in that successful general election we just lost. By Liam Fox as a matter of fact. Where are the public services? Where the more immediate concerns of most people.
True, as GB raises taxes on a regular basis to pay for his extravagance, then the idea of keeping more of the ‘hard earned’ money will become more and more attractive. But not now.
Knowing the here and now buttons to press and when to press them is the key leadership skill. LF seems to be a cheerful Back to the Past III and DD his boring prequel.
The real difference is that LF has charm and can ‘politic’ but can DD? Looks not.
8 DC used to work for Michael Howard as a special adviser. Enough said! DC will get about 32 of the 38 Clarke votes= 88. He already has one or two converts from DC/LF so 90 plus is in the bag. After overnight chats to constituency chairmen and tomorrow’s papers full of talk about a possible coronation I suspect a number of DD and probably some LF supporters may conclude that DC is a certainty and that it would be good to give the new leader the authority that a 50% vote from his Parliamentary colleagues would bring. If anyone holds out against a coronation I have a feeling that LF might be more reluctant to concede( if he’s second) than DD. If DD falls below 60- and I think he will- it will be another body blow to his already feeble credibility. I doubt he’d want a whalloping from the membership which would await him if he continued.
It would save £250000 if they did decide on Friday apparently.
I think after all the trouble we went through to keep the vote for members it would be wrong to deny them their say. Unless there is some story about to break and it needs to be stiched up quickly.
We can get added publicity for DC and the party with the hustings around the country. We could make it like 94 and the Labour leadership contest where it was clear who was going to win, so there was a very positive campaign.
Its all nice and friendly for the tories to be talking about ‘public services’. If you look at the biggest, the NHS, you see a very expensive shambles. Last time I wrote something I thought obvious (as above), I was ticked off with, ‘who says?’.
Around the world, different countries have copied (or tried to copy) our legal system, stock exchange, central bank, education, civil service, parliament and so on. Yet no country in the world has copied our NHS. Its not just me who thinks that the structure is hopeless.
But a tory candidate (for anything) who suggests that not all is well in the NHS, is given a hard time to such an extent that he backs off. What can DC say?
The rumours of Davis not carrying on are just that - RUMOURS - and untrue at that.
The DD campaign blog states:-
“David Davis is fighting for every vote. He is confident of going through to the next round and intends to take the contest to the party membership and win.”
13 - Oh so that makes it untrue (!)
Hmmm - do I believe Nick Robinson of the BBC? Or the Davis campaign?
I’ll choose the latter.
15 DD has to say that he will go to the member ballot to try to stave off large scale flight of votes. What he says this side of the vote and what he does the other side could be very different….
didnt DD’s website claim 66 supporters as well? so this statement _must_ be true.
Cynics the lot of you :o)
From BBC website:
Asked if he might be prepared to stand aside for Mr Cameron as he did for Mr Howard, Mr Davis told the BBC: “I’m in Spartan mood - they were outnumbered 50,000 to 300 at Thermopylae. I won’t be outnumbered that much.”
Not in the MPs second ballot, but the membership? Any news on tomorrow’s Telegraph/YouGov poll of Tory members yet?
19. That’s a dreadful analogy for him to use, IIRC the Spartans were annihilated quite literally….
19 Lorcan. DD “.. I’m in a Spartan mood ..”
There were bi-sexual weren’t they ???? and didn’t they get slotted by the Greeks in the end !!
20-21. by the youngster Alexander the Great, I believe
21. No Jack, they weren’t Portillistas!
IIRC Spartan culture was to go with young boys and lads whilst you were active in the military and once you were past it to settle down with a wife and raise little Spartans…..
I believe the pass still bears the slightly bitter inscription “Pass stranger and tell the Spartans we lie here obedient to their wishes.”
Is there a lesson for DD supporters?
24- Dr Fox would NOT approve.
Nor would I for that matter….
26. Alan Duncan wouldn’t approve either…….
Btw, we should ask Glenda for better info: she was probably already around professing true Labour values to Spartans boys.
Is it me or has there been a sudden movement away from Dr Fox and a tightening on Cameron….
Andrea, did I see a couple of threads ago that you were interested in future Fathers of the House of Commons?
I have the order they took the oath in 1970 (it’s as in the 7th edition of the Almanac): Cormack, Strang, Prescott, Kaufman, Kenneth Clarke, Meacher, Skinner. Paisley does not count due to his interrupted service. The next in line is Nicholas Winterton from 1971.
I’s imagine Cormack is very keen to hang on to ’succeed’.
Sorry for positing late and off topic, but I’ve been in Herefordshire and Wales for a couple of days, and with the latest posts roll being suspended threads ‘die’ much more quickly …
Woody @10 - the last leadership ballot made a profit.
21. Pederasty was common in Spartan society, in no small part as a means of subjecting young Spartan men and boys to total subjugation to the state.
The Spartans were Greeks Jack…
30. That was ITVs figures. (As they are running it as a big brother contest, then they might be taken that seriously). How come it made profit last time?
The Spartans had a form of institutionalised pederasty. But, yes, a grown man was generally expected to father children. Unmarried men were subjected to public ridicule, and were also expected to strip before unmarried women in order for the latter to determine if they were sufficiently virile.
The man who broke their hegemony was Epaminondas of Thebes, not Alexander of Macedon. They remained a power in Greece long after, though.
19 - ““I’m in Spartan mood - they were outnumbered 50,000 to 300 at Thermopylae. I won’t be outnumbered that much.” ”
Yes, but he’s fighting an election. That makes being outnumbered a bit more significant.
33 - “But, yes, a grown man was generally expected to father children.”
Aha - the Tebbit Test!
29. Robert Weller. yes, I was interested in the Father of the House “waiting list”. Thanks very much for your info.
34. how old Tebbit is?
32 - members were invited to send in a donation with their vote to cover the cost of the ballot. And they did.
29 - thanks, Robert: a mystery solved.
We need a leader who displays the strategic brilliance of Themistocles, rather than the suicidal heroism of Leonidas.
“21. Pederasty was common in Spartan society, in no small part as a means of subjecting young Spartan men and boys to total subjugation to the state.”
Girls, also.
39 - he may be suicidal buthe makes nice chocolates!!!
40. P That’s an oxymoron. Pederasty, by definition, cannot involve females.
29 - I have evil visions of Cormack keeling over the day before the next election….
34.”But, yes, a grown man was generally expected to father children.”
Aha - the Tebbit Test! ”
How many children does Lord Tebbit have?
Just to see if he’s matching his own criteria.
“Could it all be over by tomorrow night?”
You heard it here first!
45. ?
The mechanism the tories use for selecting a leader sometimes means that the members are formally asked to vote. On other occassions, there is a clear-cut leader, and there is no vote.
That may not be neat and tidy, but it seems sensible enough?
Telegraph front page just been on. Poll of members:
Cameron 59%
Fox 18%
Davis 15%
(may have got those last two the wrong way around - makes the point anyway)
This has to be on its last legs now. As somebody who joined in order to vote in a Tory leadeship election I say back Cameron now and get on with winning in ‘09. Lets start discussing the new Shadow Cabinet (how about a competition!)
Leader - Cameron
Deputy & Shadow Defence - Fox
Party Chairman - Green
Shadow Chancellor - Willetts
Shadow Constitutional Affairs - Maude
Opposition Chief Whip - McLaughlin (Deputy Chief Whip, John Randall)
Shadow Leader of the House - Rifkind
Shadow Culture - Johnson
Shadow Internal Development - Kirkbride
Shadow Dutchy of Lancaster - Spelman
Shadow Education - Lansley
Shadow Health - Osbourne
Shadow Environment - Letwin
Shadow Foreign - Hague
Shadow Home - Davis
Shadow Trade & Industry - John Redwood
Shadow Leader of the Lords - Strathclyde
Shadow Community - May
Shadow Northern Ireland - Liddington
Shadow Transport - Duncan
Shadow Work & Pensions - IDS
49. Doesn’t Shadow Constitutional Affairs have to be a lawyer?
49.”Shadow Dutchy of Lancaster - Spelman”
I’ve always wanted to ask it, but I haven’t found the right occasion: why is the Duchy of Lancaster still a Cabinet position?
It seems to me that this pressure for a ‘coronation’ once again shows the anti-democratic instincts of (some of) the tory grandees coming out. They still seem to be uncomfortable with letting their members have any say at all in the leadership.
Reminds me of the Roman Republic where in theory there was a democracy but in practice all power was in the hands of the senate.
The fact is whilst DC looks to be a certainty now he very much wasn’t a certainty a month ago and may not be again in a month’s time.
If there is no vote the MP’s better be sure that they’ve got it right because there will be recriminations if they haven’t.
It would be a disgrace were the membership to be denied a vote due to the media-fuelled Cameron bandwagon. Anne Widdecombe at least understands who would make the best leader in the absence of Sir Malcolm. Were Fox to go through he would surprise many, especially after 6 weeks to build his momentum.
Re.50 It helps but no - it is a political position
Re. 51 Yes, the Dutchy of Lancaster is still a cabinet post but was unshadowed under both IDS and Howard (I think). However I am of the old school where everyone has a shadow. Who would reply to a DoL statement otherwise?
51. It basically means minister without portfolio.
51. The reason is something to do with the civil list whereby the crown signs over the crown estates in return for a fixed income.
48 - The wishes of the party are absolutely clear. Those figures coincide completely with the discussions I’ve been having with fellow Conservatives and my contacts across the country, in fact that may even underestimate Cameron’s support. If DC’s margin tomorrow is large enough perhaps it should indeed be curtailed so we can get on with the job.
54. Under what circumstances would the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster be making a Commons statement?
43. yes, they should have a Shadow, but I’m asking why the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster still sits in the real Cabinet. I got the impression it’s not a true political position.
56. The Duchy is seperate from the Crown Estates.
53 - To an extent I agree - although I am a Cameron supporter. As I said above the scrutiny he would come under in the course of such a contest may be benefitial in the long run. Fox was my least favourite to start with but I’ve been impressed with him as the contest has gone on. I’m still not convinced he would be able to reach outside of our existing core support though.
59. It’s not a real political position, and the holder doesn’t have to sit in the Cabinet.
William Hague is on channel 111 at the moment. I don’t think he can be shadow Foriegn Secretary after this lol.
62. who decides if the holder sits in the Cabinet or not?
57 - So if the MPs give you the result you want you are OK,but if they dont you want the membership to have a say?
64. The Prime Minister.
Mr Max, a most erudite appreciation if I may say so. It is in everyones interest that the mettle of our candidates is tested most strongly by exposure to a dedicated and knowledgeable electorate, that of our party members. This can only be beneficial. Of course I am of the opinion that Cameron will be found wanting and Mr Fox will shine through, but in each case it will test them most profoundly.
Liam Fox’s no-nonsense campaign will have many resonances. He is forward looking and unequivocal about Europe. He recognises the sloppiness inherent in our dealings with one another these days, and he will seek to put right the socialist medalling of the last thirty years.
66. ok, thanks. I will not include the holder in the Cabinet, if I become PM
I hope you don’t back horses Miss Nuala.
Mr Woody we are talking about the leadership of what used to be the most successful political aprty the world has ever known, now sadly a shadow of its former self, not some half-fed nag at the 2.30 from Newmarket. As a result we should not be swayed by a passing fancy, a rosy cheek, a youthful grin, or a well-rehearsed performance. We need to see our leader down in the trenches slugging it out in the hand to hand comabt of real political debate.
65 - No, Dave. I said that if DC’s margin is large enough (I would say 100+) then that is a clear signal from the Parliamentary Party as to it’s preference, AND if all indications are that the membership are in harmony with this preference (which they are) then perhaps it’s rather pointless running the ballot of members. It seems perfectly sensible to me.
Naturally, it will be up to the second placed contender to decide whether or not he wants to pursue that course, and if he opts to go to the members, then that is his right and we go on from there. (But anyone who thinks that either Davis or Fox are going to overhaul Cameron in the country is dreaming very vividly indeed.)
70. As a fine sounding filly yourself Nuala, who I suspect has been round the track a few times, I’d guess you know a thing or two about the gee-gees.
Re: 65 - Yes, as a non-Tory, I find some of the attitudes of the pro-Cameron supporters on here quite unbelievable. This from a Party which spent a lot of the 1980s lecturing everyone else about democracy and now apparently the membership are to be denied a democratic right either because a) more than 100 MPs support one candidate or b) because it’s too expensive.
This is hypocrisy: - having rejected the Howard plan to leave the choice entirely up to MPs, the pro-Cameron lobby now want to deny that same choice to members. It confirms my suspicion that they are desperately worried about their “man” and his ability to keep the momentum going for very long.
After all, the one Tory leader chosen democratically by the membership was summarily ousted by the MPs after barely two years so I suspect that, despite Matlock’s claims, they are less confident that their man will prevail against Fox especially if the membership start asking some tough questions about what Cameron actually stands for.
To be fair, I’m interested in knowing the answer to that one too.
Mr Chrisco what an ill-bred remark.
70. lol. Just a little joke although I can’t quite see the switch from Rifkind to Fox myself.
72. Bit of a shocking accusation.
72 Chrisco. Oh my dear chap !! You surely have not tangled with Ms Nuala as yet !!
52, 53 - I agree - if Fox can get a significant amount of air time in the media he could be a threat. I personally think he’d be a catastrophe but must admit I’m still very worried about him if he gets to the final and makes a contest of it.
I think the key question is:
When will the ballot papers be sent out?
I know the result is on December 6th but it is critical when the ballot papers go out. If it is within the next 10 days then Fox will not have the chance to generate any momentum - he simply won’t have enough TV appearances.
On any one evening only 20% of the population watch a TV news bulletin so he needs several weeks of exposure to have the chance to generate momentum.
Please can someone advise the date when ballot papers will go out.
I have been watching for some time now, because of my interest in the Conservative Leadership contest, but this is the first time I have had the guts to join in (you all seem to know each other so well). Anyway I tend to agree with Nuala at 53. This Cameron chap has come along and put in one speech at the old conference and before long we are all jumping up and down and demanding that we should not have a say.
Well damn it. I want to hear what the others have got to say. I am an avid reader of the Cornerstone website, and I think I quite like where Dr Fox is coming from. So let us not go down this stitch up route, whereby the newspapers and others choose our leader for us. There are many of us out here who want to see our potential leaders in person. I did not vote not to give away my leadership, just for Channel 4 to take it away.
74. Apologies Nuala. I don’t mean to nag.
Mr W you have an unerring knack of turning up in time to bait me. Mr Woody, I accept your apology.
I meant ‘leadership vote’ in that last sentence. Sorry. I think I had novice nerves.
77. There is almost a hint of desperation to your comments Mike!
71 - A weeks a long time in politics. Six is a life time. Over 100 MPs voted for candidates from the right of the party. Opinion isnt as clear as you would suggest. There are a lot of dynamincs going on.
If you believe in the principle of letting the members vote - surely you cant change your view, even if that means re-enforcing the views expressed by MPs.
Wouldn’t it be better for the future leader to have the backing of both MPs and members, rather than relying on polls of “discussions with party members”?
78 Reginald Maggs. Welcome to the site. We look forward to your posts in the future.
77.”On any one evening only 20% of the population watch a TV news bulletin so he needs several weeks of exposure to have the chance to generate momentum.”
I suspect that party members follow political (and not only political) events more than the average audience. I suspect they’re better informed. Am I too optimistic?
80 Ms Nuala. Well from tomorrow I’m on a months sabbatical, and so the field is yours !!
I think Michael Crick gave out some figures about MPs intentions on Newsnight. I just missed it - can someone advise what they were?
85 - Yes I expect members follow the news a bit more than average but most are in effect “social” members so I don’t think they follow every detail.
Remember Fox has had quite a lot of exposure during Party Conference and during the last week with all the news around the ballots. After tomorrow just how much coverage is there going to be in the media on most days in the next 4 weeks? Probably not that much.
78 - To be fair to DC I think its more than one speech. He comes across well in interviews, is clearly intelligent and appears to be likable. Its also important to bare in mind that he has been in and around the party for a while now and isn’t all that lacking in political (if not parliamentary) experience.
71 - As a member of the Constitutional College, I supported the Howard rule changes, but that is neither here nore there now.
I am perfectly happy to go to the country with DC facing your man or Fox - the polling is clear and, I think, unlikely to change between now and 6 December. But there is a rational argument to be made for ending it tomorrow if DC’s support amongst MPs is strong enough. You clearly don’t agree - fine - you are welcome to your view and I will hold to mine.
88.” he has been in and around the party for a while now and isn’t all that lacking in political (if not parliamentary) experience. ”
that’s a bit worrying……..
87 - Mike, you really ought not be so nervous! Cameron is in good shape. We have every reason to be confident of his victory whether it comes tomorrow or on 6th December.
Thank you Jack. I must find some of your comments witty, if a trifle over my head at times. I am hoping that what I can contribute is enlightening to others with regards to the views of some of us who actually feel somewhat bewildered in this media age. Having said that, my daughter bought this computer for me last Christmas, and I am beginning to find it useful. Maybe there is some hope for us old Tory buffers yet.
Max. As I understand it you were answering my comment. Forgive me if I misunderstand. I am sure that young Mr Cameron is a decent enough chap. And I am not saying that I would not listen to him and his views. I think that we are all agreed, are we not, that it is time for this shower in Government must go.
My point, if you re-read, it Max, is that I feel that last night I was preparing to have my say that I voted to keep, and tonight I am being told that I will not get it. At present, of the three, my leanings are towards Dr Fox, as his views are closest to mine, I believe. So whether Mr Cmeron can perform well in the odd interview with Richard and Julie on day time television is irrelevant to me. What I want to hear is that the Conservative Party is going to fight for people like me.
92 - Its always good to hear from more experienced members of the party, and from new posters in general. Given the nature of the forum we do perhaps here more from younger (Tory) party members which may skew the debate a bit.
Having said that I’m afraid we’ll have to agree to disagree on who the leader should be!
All these whiney complaints from the Left (and sometimes the Tory right) about ‘what does Cameron stand for, what are his principles’.. ignore the salient point that the same question could have been levelled very sharply at New Labour in 97.
Really, what did - and does - Blair’s Labour stand for? what single philosophical principle set Blair apart from the Tories in 97, or nowm, for that matter? What was his amazing new ideological lodestar, diametrically opposed to that followed by the forces of conservatism (etc etc ad nauseam)?
Answer: there wasn’t one. There isn’t one. the Unique Selling Point of Blair’s Labour in 97 was that THEY WEREN’T THE CONSERVATIVES. They offered a fresh start, a brand new beginning, a breath of fresh air… (only one with the same economic policies, same spending plans, etc etc etc)
So there you have it. Why are we accusing Cameron of being a cypher when Blair was just as vacuous, if not more?
All we have to do is sell Cameron as a fresh start, a brand new beginning, an alternative to sleazy, spinning, devious, incompetent Labour (only more eurosceptic, and with a chance of properly reforming the NHS etc).. and we can win. Possibly.
but even if we don’t win we can forget these New Labour jibes about ‘lack of policy’. The one stonking new non-Tory policy Blair has introduced is invading sovereign countries in an allegedly illegal way leading to the deathn of thousands. Mmm. The Blairities should windowlene their mirrors, have a good look at themselves now and again. Not a pretty sight.
92 Reginald M. I assure you you’re not the only Tory old buffer on here …… let alone computer virgin ! My lad Kinkell has fits at my sheer incompetence at times ! ….. and I only qualify under one of the former categories
93 - Yes, sorry think I misread it! I quite like Dr Fox (especially with him being a fellow Scot) and would prefer him over Davis but as I said I’m still not convinced he would broaden our appeal enough to get us back into government. I do think he has grown in stature in the last few weeks and should get a key role in any shadow cabinet should he not win the leadership.
77. I can partially answer my own question - per the Party website ballot papers go out in “early November” - assuming this means around the 7th he’ll have about 18 days. That gives him a chance but he will need to move very quickly.
If anyone knows the exact date that would be helpful.
This shall be my last comment before bed. My wife is telling me that I am keeping her up with the rattling of keys.
Max. I do not mind disagreeing over who should be the leader. We do as I understand it live in a democratic country. But that being so, I feel aggrieved that some are plotting to remove that right for me, in something I deeply care about.
Sean T. Although I would share your views about that Blair man, should we, a party of heritage and principle become the same as them?
THE TIMETABLE
Today
Second ballot of MPs to decide final pair
Friday, November 4
Probable dispatch of ballot papers to all Conservative Party members
Mid-November onwards
Nationwide hustings of the final pair
Monday, December 5
Close of ballot
Tuesday, December 6
Declaration of new Conservative leader
The above was from:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-1834052,00.html
100 - Do you have any idea where the hustings will be taking place Rik?
99 - Welcome aboard, Reginald. I suspect you and I are probably about the same age based on your comments - always nice to swell the ranks of the site’s Over Sixties club
I’m afraid that, like Max, I must also disagree with you entirely on the question of who should be leader!
See: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-1834025,00.html
The board wants all nine regions of England to have their own separate event, with a meeting in Scotland and Wales too.
The point is that the majority of members will not attend hustings.
Most will send their ballot paper back very soon after receiving it.
100. Rik - many thanks for this.
How many members does the Conservative party have?
Approximately 300,000
I like the way so many people think that there should be a coronation for David Cameron. If there had not been the change of rule vote then David Davis would have been crowned by as he was the overwhelming leader.
Tough business politics. Particularly for David Davis!
But maybe there is hope for Fox. If the turn around for DC can happen in three weeks, then Fox can do it in 6.
108. Not many overall, but good if compared with Labour.
109 - Unlikely.
109 Charles - my experience was that there was never the appetite for Davis that the betting markets suggested. Which is great as I managed to lay him heavily at very short odds.
I predict DC’s garnering 110-120 votes,and by whatever mechanism,his being formally appointed leader of HM’s Oppostion by Friday lunchtime,and,even as a Labour voter,I’d say ‘Good luck,mate!’:I’d predict that even DD would see the futitlity of forcing his party through a 6-week ‘foregone conclusion’ members ballot;from recent press coverage even significant parts of the so-called ‘blue rinse’are coming round to this juncture(a notable example in this morning”Telelgraph’ was Michael Mates,71 year-old MP for Hampshire East-whatever has been said of the British Conservative Party in the past 15 years,and Christ,it has all been said in triplicate,even these buggers deserve a chance!
112 - Andy: What’s your view of this talk of the members ballot being dispensed with if Cameron has a big margin tomorrow?
Did nobody see Michael Crick on Newsnight re intentions of MPs tomorrow?
Incidentally my mother attended a meeting of Chipping Barnet Conservative Association tonight. The meeting did not discuss the leadership at all but there was a quick show of hands re who members supported. The numbers were approx:
Cameron 65%, Davis 20%, Fox 15%.
This compares to the new Telegraph poll of members which is:
Cameron 59%, Fox 18%, Davis 15%
(109)If,and the Conservative Party is a peculiar creature(bar its 1950s flirtation with embracing socialism beyond even its point of decency),elect a harsh right-winger as leader,mentioning no names,apart from ‘member for Woodspring’ then (a)Lets juxtapose to September 2001 and IDS’s elevation (b)Sit back and enjoy as Gordon Brown wins in 2009,2013(with a little help from the patriot card of the 2012 Olympics),maybe,just maybe,by 2018,PM David Milliband would face serious oppositin from John Bercow?Remember,the British Tory Party was out of office from 1859 to 1886 barring Benjamin Disraeli’s patrician,reforming 1874-1880 adminstration and the Marquess of Salisbury’s 7-month intervention in the second half of 1885;personally I would be delighted to see today’s Tory Partry experience an equivalent electoral desert,from where I’m sat,it looks pretty good!
The point of/problem with a long campaign is that it may well show Cameron as all wind and piss - or more politely as I think Portillo reported someone had said a “Chauncey Gardener” (excuse spelling if wrong). If Cameron is exposed during the campaign (the MPs have failed to test him) then the Tory party will end up in an even bigger mess, sans Clarke, than it is today.
117 - No doubt, Icarus. What you don’t say is that as a Lib Dem partisan you would dearly love to see us elect Fox as leader hoping that he will march the party rightward off the electoral cliff and are terrified that we might chose a moderate like Cameron who would recover many centrist voters the Tory party lost in the 1990s to your lot. That’s the real motivator behind your Cameron barbs - valiant effort, but I’ve been around this game a while too.
109. If Cameron’s coronation were to occur on Friday, then I would imagine that some of the good will that he has received from the Tory members would dissipate, providing that Cameron happily goes along with this - the Tory members have become so excited by this whole pageant that it would be a real blow to them if they didn’t have a say in it. The last thing Cameron needs is for others to start a whispering campaign to say that he is happy to be elected on Friday and then for him not to be elected on Friday, Fox or Davis could then have a line of attack to say that the members’ right to vote is closer to their hearts then it is to that of Cameron.
The point has probably been made before, but if so I haven’t seen it, so I’ll make it here, with apologies to anyone to whom it’s old hat: the election rules are very similar to those in a papal election. The idea is to encourage tactics and back-stabbing between rounds, so that it can appear that a candidate emerges with whom almost everyone can be happy. There are other rules which can allow the goal to be achieved without providing an incentive for voting tactically, but no, a Vatican-type model was decided to be best.
119 - You may well be right. Either way, I’m perfectly happy to put the question to the members. All indications are they will make what I consider to be the correct choice, and perhaps it would be a useful exercise to test them both and sharpen their skills - one man will be Leader and (hopefully) the next Conservative Prime Minister and the other will be a Senior (Shadow first)Cabinet Minister in due course.
Now I know that Cameron is a real threat to the LibDems and Labour: Icarus and the usual suspects have taken to disparaging him. Good sign!
I meant, ‘next Conservative prime minister, my big toe!’
123 - Why don’t you step out from behind your cloak of fruity (in more ways than one) anonymity and risk the merit of that statement at the point of legal attack?
Banana Do you have any idea of what you mean? Your post on Cameron’s wife and the mother of a disabled child is one of the most toxic I have seen on any site.
He has refused to answer impertinent questions about his personal life that the present Labour cabinet, to a man, has also refused to answer and rightly so as it’s none of anyone else’s bloody business what he may or may not have done at Oxford. Do I think Labour are going to raise this question in light of their own silence on the issue? Ummm - No.
And yes, your post with regard to Mrs Cameron and her son were abhorrent. You should be thoroughly ashamed of yourself. Vile little slug.
I think the best thing is to ignore Banana. It will drive him crazy.
129 - Indeed. Though I still think Mike should delete his libellous comments and ban him from the site.
You are kidding yourself, AH. Not only are you confusing a question with a comment, but you are saying that when a politician has a criminal past that has never led to a criminal conviction, it’s no-one else’s business. What do you think cartoonists such as Steve Bell etc. are going to be concentrating on - DC’s hairstyle?
Blue2win - I know you’ve been ignoring me since I outed you as an American
I’ve never come across any British person who called maths ‘math’.
This is intolerable. I hope Mike Smithson is paying attention to this. End of discussion.
No comeback to the point that you’re saying whether or not a politician is a criminal is no-one’s business but their own?
With Cameron at the Tory helm, Brown for Labour, and Kennedy (still?)for the LibDems - all three main parties will go into the next general election with a Scottish leader.
Four years is a long time in pollyticks. The marketing of Brown as the automatic successor has been very successful… It has meant no talk about any weakness in Blair’s leadership position, as happened constantly with regard to Major and even under Thatcher towards the end. Not even when, say, Cook resigned, on an issue on which the government is, and remains, very unpopular.
I follow political betting as a non-participant but I’d say laying Brown would be a good investment. I’ve said it before but Hain is the one to watch.
I have called the Tory Party every name under the sun in my 34 years;I have earned (albeit briefly)notoriety on this website by making inapporiate 1984-epoch jests about,lets say,a certain mishap that befell a particular party conference-but I do draw the line at spiteful remarks being aimed at a pregnant lady,and her(and spouses)subsequent brave attempts to look after the little mite,Banana,I surmise,should be in-said republic in South America,where shall we say,Uruguay,Chile(no,he’d be too comfy with General Pinochet)-this ain’t a gutter tabloid,so lets all keep a certain decorum.
You must have been quite young in 1984. Not sure whether you remember how Marks and Spencers were very nifty about promoting themselves that morning in Brighton. Ian McGregor lost no time in linking anti-terrorism with crushing the miners, when he said ‘this is what you get when you break the law’, or words to that effect. Why you’re calling me a fascist, goodness only knows.
I wonder if some rightwing MPs will switch from Davis to Fox because Fox is less likely to pull out from the membership ballot if he becomes second, as I got the impression from this article http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-1834052,00.html
I have moderated certain comments on this thread. If Mike feels differently, he will be able to reinstate them when he is online.
Please will everyone heed the warning not to post inappropriate, illegal or libellous comments.
138. Have you delated my pic of Helen Clark too?
139 - no.
130-’When a politician has a criminal past’
Banana or should I say Labour Party Central office?
Surely a politician that takes a country to war based on lies & deceit where 25,000 mostly innocent people get killed including 90 from his own country, would surely be worthy of the title ‘CRIMINAL’?
140 book value. For God sake why
140. I thought I posted one of her best pictures, but I can’t see it now…….I should see a doctor…….
137 - Thanks for that, Book Value.
111 But possible
140 - yes of course Blair is a war criminal.