Now it’s the battle of the Daves
October 20th, 2005
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Six months of betting - six weeks to go
Three quarters of a way into the eight month battle for the Tory leadership it is now down to just two men - the two Daves - Cameron and Davis.
On the betting markets there’s been a slight easing of the Cameron price and a tightening of the Davis price. Many punters had been piling into Cameron in the expectation that the contest might be over this weekend. Now the battle is going to carry on there a lot of position covering happening as punters try to get some cash back by laying Cameron.
Now Davis is the only person left who can beat Cameron his price has tightened.
Things should settle down in the coming days and we’ll all have to wait until December 6th for the final outcome.
The chart shows the implied probability of the two men winning based on the best betting prices since the contest was called in early May.
Best betting exchange prices; Cameron 0.12/1: Davis 7.2/1
Best bookmaker prices; Cameron 1/12: Davis 6/1
Mike Smithson
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As long as there aren’t any major “events”, Cameron is going to embarrass Davis.
1, Never say never in politics.
Too early to say. My top two favoured candidates are through, but in politics anything can happen and at least we members now get to see the men up close and analyse their policies in depth.
Well done David and David and well fought Liam.
3 - Yes, my two favoured candidates through as well and unlike last time, when I wanted to vote for Portillo, I’ll get the chance to vote for my favourite.
Andrew Lansley on Question Time tonight as well as Matthew Parris, should but a positive spin on things from a Cameron viewpoint. With Cameron being on last week and Lansley this week the Beeb (unsuprisingly) has been busy promoting Cameron as leader; I’m not complaining though.
Was the last thread a record? 446 comments in 10 hours and 46 minutes.
6. General Election set records I think (although I don’t know how as most of us on here were campaigning)
5 - As I understand it, the parties get their pick of who to put on Question Time (subject to some rules like I don’t think you can have a home fixture - e.g. Prescott in Hull). So presumably Lansley is down to Howard and/or Maude. Not sure how it works with people like Parris though - that probably was the Beeb.
I haven’t been following the General Election betting for a while, but the Tories seem to have moved up from 34-40 to 36-42 on IG and Labour down from 60-66 to 58-64 since before Conference.
Anyone any thoughts on whether six weeks of Tory hustings and a bright, shiny new leader by early December will impact on this market in the short term?
My gut reaction is that the Tories will move up a bit in the honeymoon, but not enough to make any real money.
LMAO - the tories have a choice between a disaster that’s already happened versus a disaster waiting to happen. Davis the dead fish - or Cameron the sitting duck.
I just think once exposed to serious pressure and media exposure cameron’s going to have a lot of unanswerable questions thrown at him.
I just hope they don’t crop up before the tories get lumped with him as their new leader
I expect the Cameron price to lengthen and have bet accordingly, unless of course Davis concedes. I also think a lot can happen in two months. Someone pointed out that the hustings may have a big impact. No doubt the national media will enjoy covering the first few, the London one and the last of the eleven events - unusually, as normally the national media aren’t interested in regional events, unless they’re in the London ‘region’ where they all work.
That means that around five of those hustings will in effect be national press conferences with real Tory audiences, as the vast majority of Tory members won’t make one and will base their responses on what the papers make of them.
Have any of the nationals come out for anyone yet? Suppose the Telegraph endorses Davis for instance, that could have a big impact. It’ll also be interesting to see who Fox backs.
Question Time - my understanding is there’s a constant battle between Lib Dems, who always want to be on, and the BBC who want to put someone else on occasionally, e.g. the SNP. And Question Time do set it up so it’s all e.g. education sometimes, when that’s in the news. I think they have opinions about who they want too, so it’s a bit of a negotiation.
“I just think once exposed to serious pressure and media exposure cameron’s going to have a lot of unanswerable questions thrown at him.”
That’ll more of the “Have you stopped beating your wife” kind of question that Labour’s lapdogs in the media will be only too ready to throw.
The record number of comments on a thread was 470 a couple of days before the General Election.
We did reach 1000 commwnts on several threads in one 24 hour period that week.
8. While that makes sense, with parties being allowed to choose their representative, wouldn’t having Cameron on last week have been some sort of breach of rules if Maude or Howard chose him? - this occurring during a leadership election. Cameron thus receiveing extra recognition at the expense of the others.
Neither man can/wants to change. Both could put together a capable cabinet.
During the votes so far, more people think that the tories look like a govt in waiting than they have for ages. Why?
I think that that media (in this country, that means the BBC) would like to see a change. Don’t you think that they feel some ‘Blair fatigue’? More sympathetic coverage for the tories since the 80’s?.
The BBC wants DC. The tory grass-roots should oblige them.
Pleased that ordinary members will get their vote, to have crowned Cameron this week would have looked awful. Silly question perhaps, but could anyone supply a list of where the hustings will be?
The QT system works like this. QT bid for individuals from each party up to three months in advance. The parties have a power of veto and suggestion, but the initial bid comes from QT.
The thinking behind it is so that MPs - who have busy diaries, believe it or not - can book in their travel to such unheard of places like Doncaster.
Occasionally, such as during the run up to the Iraq war, the early bookings are changed by mutual agreement.
11.”Question Time - my understanding is there’s a constant battle between Lib Dems, who always want to be on, and the BBC who want to put someone else on occasionally, e.g. the SNP”
couldn’t they sometimes invite someone from minor parties (SNP, PC, Greens, UKIP, Galloway,….) instead of the various journalist they usually have?
2 - hence my “events” comment
Re. who gets to decide who goes on Question Time, one of the most interesting bits in Lance Price’s Diaries is the reluctance of various Cabinet ministers to go on QT (at one point an enraged Price - or is it Campbell? - snarls that thanks to a particular instance of reluctance, Tony Benn will end up on QT for Labour).
I remember Tessa Jowell appearing on QT in 92 on a ‘newly elected MPs’ special. She was absolutely abysmal, and Nirj Deeva ran rings round her.
So the “two Davids” have made it through. I thought Fox might just sneak it and if there has been tactical voting for Davis by Cameron supporters, it just goes to show how fragile their “boy” must be.
According to the poll this morning, Cameron would trounce Fox by 40 points and yet the Cameron camp are worried enough to ensure it’s not Fox they have to face but Davis in the membership ballot. It bodes ill for when their “boy” is thrust on to the main stage i.e: the Commons. Hague, who had a much harder fight to become leader, proved himself in the Commons for all the good it did him in the end. Cameron may yet prove himself adept but it is a worry that his side seem all too willing to wrap him in cotton wool now.
The voters of course will need to be convinced and that will mean policy and detail which may be playing to Cameron’s strengths. I’m sure he’d like his past leadership opponents on the inside rather than causing grief on the backbenches but whether Davis or Fox will serve in a Cameron Shadow Cabinet remains very much to be seen. They may conclude,as I do, that Cameron has eighteen months to be seen to be putting the Conservatives in a position to win the next election.
If the polls don’t move, the vultures will begin to circle and Davis or Fox will be the beneficiaries if Cameron runs into trouble. That said, I expect a strong show of Unity (whoever she may be) among the Tories once the ballot is over.
Anyone know when/where the Torbay result comes out?
21. Has Cameron had some Commons’ confrontations against Ruth Kelly in these months?
20. How are Lance Price’s Diaries?
I do find some of the desperate wishful thinking hilariously funny - see 21 and 10. The other parties activists must be desperately worried to produce such laughable stuff!
Just because Pimpernel THINKS Cameron will crumble, doesnt mean he will. And there are lots of IFs in Stodge’s post. The fact is that Cameron could bomb, just as Tony Blair COULD be caught with his trousers down, or Charles Kennedy COULD be caught taking a late night stroll on Clapham Common - but also Cameron COULD prove to be a decisive, credible, likeable leader who takes a lot of support from Labour and the Lib Dems. INstead of inventing disaster stories, why dont we wait 12-18 months and see.
I am very much looking forward to next May’s local elections under a Cameron leadership!
23 - Only one half-day debate, and various question times. The debate was quite easy for him, because when Ruth Kelly was on her feet, the Conservative backbenchers were able to drown out her speech with “normal conversation”, a tactic they used against Neil Kinnock all those years ago.
She had to raise her voice so much that her face was going red, and she didn’t manage to get in her soundbites for the news because of it, as the Conservative Deputy Chief Whip decided to put her out of her misery, and moved a closure motion.
25. “She had to raise her voice so much that her face was going red”
Couldn’t Ruth Kelly just ask the Speaker to tell the tories to shut up? It would be easier for her than turning red!
I’m still a little worried about the membership stuffing up.
I really hope people don’t expect Cameron to start landing blows on TB straight away. He’s not got the experience of Hague or Howard at the dispatch box so we need to be patient.
RE:25- Ruth Kelly is hopelessly over promoted. She barely hung onto her seat at the election, and now takes the educational brief wherever the media wishes it to be moved too.
27. Whichever Davis we have as leader will have a mass of amunition to go with though. It is a real good time to be leader now.
Re. 23, very good.
Re. 28, Maddy, I agree entirely. Yvette Cooper should be in her place (far more human, far more intelligent, and who doesn’t have that awful ‘I must live down having been to public school’ sloppy mockney drone). Shame on Kelly also for ditching Tomlinson. Tomlinson would, in my opinion, have cut into the ‘all must have prizes’ culture by ending the pretence that everyone can be academic, and the 4,000 word extended essay may well have given universities and employers the ability to identify the brightest pupils.
22. Fear of losing is not the only explaination for tactical voting against Fox by Cameron’s team. Of course their aim is to get their man into the top job, and so would naturally want to choose the opponent who the polls show is likely to give them the biggest lead with the party members (and what better start to a leadership than an overwhelming endorsement from the party??).
However, this is a two horse race, and one of them must win. Which means that if not DC then his opponent would be leader. In terms of policy DC and DD do not appear to be gulfs apart,so perhaps their calculatio is just that if the unthinkable (for them) happens they would prefer to be in a DD led party than a NeoCon-labelled LF led party.
LF would have been the only one of the candidates who would have caused me to turn away from the Tories and I suspect many of my friends likewise. There was a time and a place for Thatcherism (and I do _not_ consider that a perjoritive term) within the Tories, but that time is not now - a neo-Thatcherite agenda would have been electoral suicide.
So what are your predictions for a Cameron Shadow Cabinet then?
Mine are:
Rifkind for Shadow Chancellor (need a good performer with gravitas)
Osbourne for Shadow Home (principled attack on erosion of liberties)
Teresa May Shadow Foreign (woman in a higher position than Labour)
DD for Shadow Defence
LF Shadow Health
Caroline Spelman Shadow Education
William Hague Party Chair
David Willetts Shadow Transport
Work & Pensions Alan Duncan
Andrew Lansley Industry
Adam Afriye Treasury
Some no doubt laughable as I don’t really know the individuals involved- but you get the idea…
31 - I’m happy in that I know I won’t be leaving the party whoever wins now!
30. Is there someone out there who likes Ruth Kelly (other than in Downing Street and Westminster)? I still have to read a positive comment about her!
24. “The fact is that Cameron could bomb, just as Tony Blair COULD be caught with his trousers down, or Charles Kennedy COULD be caught taking a late night stroll on Clapham Common”
Apples and oranges Rik: it is extremely unlikely that TB is a philanderer, and likewise CK being a ‘mo, in the same way that it is extremely unlikely that DC is a coke addict. However, can it be said that it is unlikely that DC will be a bad Tory leader? I don’t think so.
FWIW I think he will be a reasonable leader - I don’t think he’ll totally bomb, but nor will he lead the Tories to an overall majority. Only time will tell…
30: Mark a 4,000-word essay from every applicant to one’s University? What would English, history, Fine Art and Business Studies dons do with the other five minutes in the year?
I thought Tomlinson was just another outpouring from the educational establishment and am relieved the government has binned it.
The essay would have been totally useless for the physical sciences in my opinion, and fairly useless for the others.
32. I’ll try, but I’ve no doubt I would do a reshuffle tomorrow!
Leader: Cameron
Chancellor: Clarke (if he’ll serve)
Home Affairs: Osborne
Foreign Affairs: Fox
Defence: Davis
Health: Spelman
Education: Hunky
Transport: Redwood
Culture: Lansley
Industry: May
Work and Pensions: Willetts
Local Government: Eleonor Laing
Environment: Letwin
Party Chairman: Rifkind
If Clarke won’t serve, move Osborne back as Chancellor, DD at Home Office, Sir Malcolm at Defence and Widdy as Party Chairwoman.
Are my suggestions so bad?
34. Yeah, I think she’s kind of cool.
39. Is she your ambassador at Downing Street?
Re. 36 and 37, you each seem to have shot this particular kite of mine down fairly convincingly.
Maybe the German system (of academic schools and technical/vocational schools) would be a better way to end the alienation of non-academic pupils in comprehensive schools. I thought Damian Green was on very good ground during his time as Shadow Education Secretary in asking why we don’t have lessons in bricklaying and other practical skills in our secondary schools, as happens on the Continent. This approach (and, indeed, allowing secondary school pupils to spend part of their time at FE colleges on apprenticeships and/or vocational/technical courses, as is beginning to happen already) would help to reduce truancy rates just as much (if not, indeed, more) than all the easy headline-grabbing solutions such as threatening parents with jail.
39. No, he hasn’t declared for us yet, my son.
So, its a final between Dull Dave and Dazzly Dave.
Davis’s attempts to look relaxed tend to make him look weary.
On the other hand, the much more youthful images of Cameron riding to work on a bicycle make him look TOO young - almost studenty.
And six weeks is a helluva long long time in politics. Those hacks who have worked so hard to dig up some dirt ahead of what might have been decision day, now have a month and a half to excavate more widely. Much now depends on which of the candidates can most successfully determine the agenda, rather than becoming the victim of someone else’s.
Davis’s percieved involvement in deviously stirring the cocaine story appears to have damaged himself more than Cameron. But this has the makings of a 12 round contest in which both sides will land a few blows. Meanwhile the easily bored tabloids will doubtless be running some frivolous (but possibly effective) ‘leaders wives’ assessment, weighing up what Mrs Cameron or Mrs Davis will do with Cherie’s curtains.
42. Maybe, she isn’t lobby hard enough. Too busy with school food?
Problem is that Damian Green is dull as ditchwater. Like Willetts without the brains.
Andrea: I’ll be amazed if Clarke serves in Cameron’s shadow cabinet.
And why would the Cameroon giev a juicy post like shadow foreign to Fox, and keep Rifkind for Defence or Party Chair? Cam will desperately need some experience and weight in his top 3, especially as he’ll need to balance Osborne. (Not to mention Redwood- I thought this meant to be an attractive and modern-looking line-up!)
39 - Would that be because of the opus dei connection your holiness?
46. Sara. I would keep Redwood in the shadow cabinet just to please a bit the right of the party (if Clare Short managed to stay in Blair’s Cabinet so long, Redwood could serve in a Cameron’s cabinet).
I would keep Fox there, becuase in the end he run a decent campaign and it would be unfair to demote him immediately.
I’ve no space for Sir Malcolm in the top 3 if I’ve to keep Osborne and the 2 leadership candidates.
One possible depiction of the parliamentary turnover is (al transfers net):
Cameron: 31 from Clarke, 2 from Davis, 1 from Fox
Davis: 6 from Clarke, 2 to Cameron, 9 to Fox
Fox: 1 to Cameron, 1 from Clarke, 9 from Davis.
Does this look likely given intelligence from MPs?
I’ve always thought Green comes over fairly well, particularly his conversational, matter-of-fact style. He may not be all that charismatic, but I don’t think he’s as dull as Willetts (certainly nowhere near as dull as Andrew Mitchell).
By the way, someone was asking about Cameron in student politics at Oxford. I was at Oxford at the same time as C. (no, I don’t know anything…), and though I didn’t exactly mix in his circles, he made no impression on me at all. Whereas Ed Vaizey certainly was a weel kent name. Did he stay out of politics?
48: Fox came across well, but does it really make sense to have such a right-winger in such a high spot in the all-new, cuddly and attractive Shadow Cabinet, reaching out to normal people everywhere? And how come he does better than Davis, if the only criterion is being a failed leadership candidate?
50 - Maybe I just don’t like him. I concur he’s not the dullest man on the HoC benches (there’s some competition).
Have never met Mitchell though so won’t comment.
52. I would start to demote some big names in the next reshuffle. I would want angry MPs in the first months of a leadership.
53. I’ve the same feeling for Tessa Jowell!
Andrea @38, So you are a moderate Tory after all ;), or have you just been made deranged by your sociological structural holes?
But I must protest vehemently at the exclusion of Viscount Matlock of Beaconsfield
I really don’t think anyone will tempt Billy back by making the former leader of the opposition Party Chair!!
He’ll (rightly) only take one of the three biggies (or deputy leader I guess)
I’d like to see him get Shadow Chancellor but realistically Shadow Foreign. It would be fantastic he’d make mincemeat of Jack Straw.
I’d keep Davis at Home he’s done a good job there.
Ideally Rifkind, Clarke, Davis, Fox, Hague will all be found posts they’d accept but he’s only got 4 major jobs (assuming he’s clever and makes the Deputy Leader just that) to give and one will be taken by his buddy George.
Andrea: I think Widdy as party chairwoman (or would she do a Teresa May?) is inspired!
56. John O, were my suggestions so bad?
(you’ve to take in consideration that I write them whilst producing the matirial I need about structural holes)
Viscount Matlock of Beaconsfield will be naturally appointed Leader of the Lords.
58. Some posters here mentioned how they would like to have Widdy as party chairwoman some days ago.
59 - Andrea, Au contraire…the list would be very similar to mine. Now you should be worried
A lot of the old guard have to be cleared out of the Shadow Cabinet, Ancram is stepping down and Yeo has quit but Redwood must go. The likes of Willetts and Damien Green, natural Cameron supporters, must be kicking themselves for their opportunism in backing Davis, their careers will no doubt now hit the skids.
It is now incumbent upon Mr Davis and Dr Fox to settle their differences and clear up any misunderstandings which may have occurred in the last few weeks. The very soul of the Conservative party depends upon it.
A joint (no sniggering at the back there) campaign by the two candidates who have today carried a clear majority of our MPs can preserve true Conservative values and connect with those who have deserted us since the party lost its way in 1990.
Mr Cameron offers us nothing but an impression of the mannerisms and vacuous language of Blair. He has flip-flopped on ERM and the euro. He has failed to deny unequivocally that he took a pick-and-choose approach to the laws of the realm in his youth.
The Cameron campaign amongst the voluntary membership will no doubt focus on his superior breeding and elocution. Clear policies of the kind that made us unbeatable in the 1980s will be avoided at all costs by his clique of advisors. The voluntary party will be asked to put their signature to a blank piece of paper.
Only an alliance between Mr Davis and Dr Fox can avoid this nightmare scenario.
Re. 57, and if the Conservatives won the next General Election, that would enable Hague to fill the same post as those other ex-leaders, Balfour and Home.
61 - Cameron has got to avoid being vindictive. I think Willetts and Green will get jobs.
But I think Redwood’s front bench life is almost certainly over (it bloody well should be).
or, strictly speaking, Douglas-Home (as he was from 1963-74).
62. True, but (assuming of course he’s defeated) Davis may press for a couple or so of his leading supporters to be included in the Shadow Cabinet to cement party unity. I’m sure Willetts will stay and Green may also be in with a chance.
But yes…poor Damian: he backed Clarke in 1997, Portillo in 2001, and Davis now
60. John O, I would be more worried if I would have produced Rosindell’s dream Cabinet!
I just noticed that no Labourite signed the Early Day Motion wishing an happy birthday to Maggie. Guess why !
63 - IIRC and Sir Austen Chamberlain
59, 60 - I am glad to see my name appear on the list! I was beginning to worry!
67 - I guess his dog Spike (was that its name?)would be Foreign Secretary. Ah, the sharp canine fangs lovingly imposed on the French President’s ample derriere
My Lord, see my protests at your noble exclusion @56.
69. John O’s mention isn’t disinterested. He still wants to become your deputy. I try to convince him to defect promising him the title of First Chamberlain of Clare Short’s Household, but he didn’t pay attention to me
A concerted campaign (which fails) to defeat Cameron through innuendo and stitch-ups will reverse all the good impression that the campaign has created so far.
You might want ANOTHER right-wing leader to lead us to ANOTHER dismal defeat but most Tories are getting bored of losing elections now.
70. Spike died. I discovered it some days ago here!
70 - Spike alas is worrying postmen in that Essex in the sky.
I think there will need to be a pretty big reshuffle too. We need to deploy our talent wisely. If Ken Clarke agrees to serve (which he probably won’t) then he should be Shadow Chancellor. Osborne to the Home Office where his modernising views will differentiate us from Labour. I am attracted to Sarah’s idea of putting Rifkind is as Shadow Chancellor if Clarke doesn’t want it. Shadow Foreign Secretary should be offered to Hague. Bring Vaizey into the Shadow Cabinet in mid level roles - Health, Education, Environment or something. Liam Fox to Trade and Industry. David Davis to Defence or perhaps shadowing the Foreign Office if Hague declines. I can see the rationale for getting shot of Redwood, but as somebody mentioned a few days ago, he is, like him or not, one of the brightest men in the Commons - surely we can make use of his talent somehow. Willetts should have a pivotal role too, of course. Party Chairman is a bit of a dilemma. I had thought Widdecombe would be perfect for it, but I think if Cameron wins he will want one of his loyalists in that spot.
71 - Ah, excellent John. I’ll buy you lunch in the Tea Room!
76. Vaizey already in the Shadow Cabinet? I suppose many middle age could resent this early promotion.
77.”Ah, excellent John. I’ll buy you lunch in the Tea Room”
what type of tearooms are we talking about?
76 - That should read ‘bring Vaizey and Gove into the Shadow Cabinet in mid-level roles’ …
This would be my Shadow Cabinet based on the current structure:
LEADER OF HER MAJESTY’S OFFICIAL OPPOSITION & LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY Rt Hon David Cameron MP
DEPUTY LEADER Rt Hon Kenneth Clarke MP
LEADER OF HER MAJESTY’S OFFICIAL OPPOSITION IN THE HOUSE OF LORDS Rt Hon Lord Strathclyde
SHADOW FOREIGN SECRETARY Rt Hon William Hague MP
SHADOW CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER George Osborne MP
SHADOW LEADER OF THE HOUSE OF COMMONS Boris Johnson MP
SHADOW SECRETARY OF STATE FOR EDUCATION Caroline Spelman MP
SHADOW SECRETARY OF STATE FOR DEFENCE Patrick Mercer MP
SHADOW SECRETARY OF STATE FOR HEALTH Chris Grayling MP
SHADOW SECRETARY OF STATE FOR CONSTITUTIONAL AFFAIRS Damien Green MP
SHADOW HOME SECRETARY Rt Hon David Davis MP
SHADOW SECRETARY OF STATE FOR ENVIRONMENT, FOOD & RURAL AFFAIRS Andrew Lansley CBE MP
SHADOW SECRETARY OF STATE FOR TRANSPORT Alan Duncan MP
SHADOW SECRETARY OF STATE FOR THE FAMILY & CULTURE, MEDIA & SPORT Jacqui Lait MP
SHADOW SECRETARY OF STATE FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS & COMMUNITIES Caroline Spelman MP
SHADOW SECRETARY OF STATE FOR WORK AND PENSIONS & WELFARE REFORM David Willetts MP
SHADOW SECRETARY OF STATE FOR TRADE AND INDUSTRY Rt Hon Peter Lilley MP
CHAIRMAN OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY Rt Hon Theresa May MP
SHADOW CHIEF SECRETARY TO THE TREASURY Mark Field MP
SHADOW SECRETARY OF STATE FOR DEREGULATION Eric Pickles MP
SHADOW SECRETARY OF STATE FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Andrew Mitchell MP
SHADOW SECRETARY OF STATE FOR NORTHERN IRELAND Rt Hon Sir Malcolm Rifkind MP
CHIEF WHIP Andrew Robathan MP
Re: 24 - To be honest, Rik, it’s YOUR response that smacks of desperation, not mine !! Perhaps the enormity of the gamble you are taking has finally sunk in. Let me be candid, IF Cameron turns out the man you believe him to be, then he will be the next Conservative Prime Minister and he may, unlike Thatcher, be a Tory Prime Minister worth supporting. Of course, after eight years of Opposition and humiliation, anyone who looks as though they reach out beyond the core vote, even on the flimmiest of evidence, will be hailed as a great leader in waiting by a desperate activist.
He may fail - I hope he does, for partisan reasons. If he’s the man to take this country forward in a direction I can approve and support and institute policies I agree with, then the fact he’s a Tory won’t matter too much.
On the news tonight, when asked whether he had taken drugs (not sure whether asked hard drugs or cocaine - sorry not listening properly) whilst an MP, DC specifically said ‘NO’.
Of course this is still a no win situation as it opens the question about other times and if he won’t answer questions about other times, why did he answer this question.
No matter what he says he can’t win. I even think if he came out with an all time denial, he will be challenged why he didn’t say that in the first place and why he has changed his position now if it is a private matter.
80. who would you throw out to free positions for Gove and Vaizey?
Where will Letwin and Lansley go? To the backbenches?
73 - But following on from the other thread it is incumbent upon Cameron supporters to explain to Conservatives precisely why their man will enable the Conservative Party to win Northern seats like Bury North, Bury South, Cheadle, Warrington South, Wirral South and West, Chorley, Southport etc…and David Davis won’t. Because these seats need to turn Blue again if we are to ever have a Conservative government. This already seems to be David Davis line of attack and the Cameron people need to be able to answer it.
81. “SHADOW LEADER OF THE HOUSE OF COMMONS Boris Johnson MP”
Why do some people rate Boris Johnson so high?
80 That should read ‘bring Vaizey and Gove into the Shadow Cabinet in mid-level roles’ …
I’m impressed by Gove and Vaizey, but is there any history of putting MPs with only 6 months experience into a shadow cabinet?
No reason why not I guess.
85 - What Davis supporters need to tell us is how a wooden performer with no obvious leadership credentials outside of a bunch of bully cronies and a single mother parent will win us ANY seats ANYWHERE.
81- Rik, are you sure it’s wise to put Theresa May back as Party Chairman? I have great admiration for her and her abilities and I think we should definitely put those talents to work within the Shadow Cabinet, but she did rub a fair number of people up the wrong way the last time she was Party Chairman.
Otherwise, your list looks quite good.
I missed what Oliver Letwin did wrong. Until not so long ago he seemed to be a leading light and a bright one. Now it is a question as to whether he warrants a lowly shadow cabinet position or none in a David Cameron led party, when I heard him an early supporter of David Cameron.
90. maybe he’s too busy fighting the Libdems.
As a non-Tory my choice for leader (as per my first post of a few days ago) was LF. The choice I most feared is DC. DC may prove to be a disaster through either being ineffectual (and there is no track record here one way or another) or because the papers find what they are looking for. However he may prove to be a really good leader.
If DC becomes leader and if he does flop (in a short period of time) I suspect the door is then wide open for LF. It is difficult to see a challenger to him. DD will have gone the way of KC and I can’t see them risking a new boy (or girl) again.
Lots of ‘if’ and ‘but’s and wishful thinking there!
90 - Letwin’s main problem is he has good ideas but his speeches are incomprehensible rubbish.
And again he’s a bit flat. But I would be surpised if he didnt get a fairly decent shadow cabinet role.
Good point by Matthew Parris on QT. Because Clarke was knocked out first, the second ballot had two right candidates fighting one left candidate. Hence if the other way round many of LF’s support would have gone to DD and would have made DC look less like the heir apparent.
88 - David - You seem to be mistaking me for a Davis supporter. My point was merely that if Tory members think like you that its all about winning the next election, then Cameron’s camp will need to convince them that they can win those Northern seats that would be required. Especially when they are running on a campaign of changing what the party stands for.
From a betting perspective, which after all is what the site is all about, I remain to be convinced that the Conservatives could win the next election outright with Cameron and would back a hung parliament.
Rik @ 81: Would you ditch Fox altogether (or is this an accidental omission)? Whilst I find his policies quite a bit off to the Right, I think he has run a decent campaign and would have him in a decent position to placate that wing of the party: Home or Foreign are possibilities; as is Health.
Any by election events tonight anyone? And doesn’t question time seem like a left wing love in tonight? Amnesty International really annoy me sometimes.
82 - Bless!
86 - He is an intelligent and colourful figure who is popular with many people.
89 - I think Theresa is the one to drive through some of the changes needed in the party structure and candidate selection process.
90 - Nothing wrong with Letwin except that he has said he wishes to return to the back benches for a while.
96 - Ooops - an omission. Yes he should be in there. I juggled so many times I must have chopped him by mistake!
Maybe at Defence instead of Mercer?!
98. I thought Letwin was doing a good job at shadowing DEFRA. It would be a great shame if he returned to the backbenches as I really think issues like the envoirment need to be played out by the Tories now. There is a view that Tories are anti envoirmental issues which I believe to be quite untrue and needs attention. Letwin would be an ideal man for this.
100 - I think he wants to earn some real money again from banking “on the side”!
Matthew Paris will be eating his words when people are dying in the middle of London of bird flu!
99 - I think you had Caroline Spelman twice so you’ve got an extra position to play with.
Do you think Clarke would be likely to serve as deputy?
“89 - I think Theresa is the one to drive through some of the changes needed in the party structure and candidate selection process.”
I can’t believe you said that, Richard. We need “A” lists and ethinc quotas like we need a hole in the head. Bang would go your chances of being reselected.
104. If a man willl undergo a sex change operation, could she be part of a TM’s quotas and Labour’s all women shirtlists?
103 - Well spotted - put Fox in at Local Govt and Communities
104 - we dont need ethnic quotas but we do need more good women and ethnic candidates in winnable seats. I emphasise GOOD!
106. how would you try to help them winning the selection vote without imposing quotas or all women shirtlists?
I think everybody could agree that more women or ethnic candidates are an improvement. Then I could understand the argument against all women shirtlists. So what could it be done to solve the problem?
97 - there are a number of by-elections tonight. In the North Kingston ward of Canbury (Richmond Park constituency) the Lib Dems held on very easily and increased their share of the vote from 43% to 51%. Lib Dem 1053, Con 668, Lab 301.
Labour’s vote halved and the Tories stood still.
Rather goes against the ‘irresistable blue tide’ Rik and others have been promoting in the last few weeks on this site.
Loving some of the suggestions for shadow cabinet posts - Spelman, Adifrye, Gray, Lait etc - surely there is some talent somewhere on the Tory benches?
I thought Damien Green made a fair point on Newsnight to the effect that going for Tory Blair might not look so clever a choice in four to five years time.
108. Torbay is electing the mayor tonight.
Personally on the Shadow Cabinet front Cameron would be foolish to promote anyone from the 2005 intake after just a few months in the Commons. I certainly think Hague should return in the Foreign Affairs role. Osborne should stay put as he is shaping up quite well. Davis should stay shadowing Home Affairs, which means Fox would need a senior place to go. I would therefore in Cameron’s shoes go to the Lilley model of Deputy Party leader with an overarching policy brief. This should also placate the right of the Party. Rifkind I believe would make an excellent Party Chairman, better than Maude anyway.
106. Rik you make Blairs reshuffles look professional!!!
Rik W, then let them take their chances with everybody else. I’m afraid you’re shafted if TM is in charge of candidate selection.
112 - Woody, what’s your view of the day’s events? Will you be sticking with Davis?
108 - Chew on this Dan boy:
http://www.thisissomerset.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=150802&command=displayContent&sourceNode=150790&contentPK=13349466
112 - lol - he has had more experience than me
114. AH Matlock lobbying campaign has already started……………
113. Sean Fear, I think Theresa May will allow some white men too!
116 - I bloody well hope so!! lol
116 - Yes, but we’re still being friendly about it Andrea. I haven’t begun twisting Woody’s arm yet!
117. If May won’t allow male candidate anymore, there’s always my suggestion @105.
(it’s a joke, don’t take this comment in the wrong way)
95 - Actually at the mo I agree that the best we’ll get next time will be a hung parliament with Labour the largest party. That’s why Labour are still odds on.
The man to win the election was Ken but he would have torn the party apart (if all the rabid anti-ken opinions here are anything to go by).
May and Lilley are both finished at senior level I know most people have had enough of “we’re really crap” speeches.
117 - Hasn’t Adam Rickett already filled the available place for white males
120.”May and Lilley are both finished at senior level I know most people have had enough of “we’re really crap” speeches”
And does Hanky “you’re a Taliban. If you vote for Fox, you’re mad!” Dunky still have some chances?
121- I think Adam Rickett counts for the actors quota to balance Glenda in the Commons.
122 - I have no idea about Dunky.
123 - mmmm One of them has two Oscars….. it’s not really fair to compare Adam “I Breathe Again(?)” RIckitt to Glenda much as I dislike her.
If Adam Rickett does fill a quota it is surely not the same one as Glenda Jackson.
124. David R, you’re right. Glenda was a terrific actress.
I must admit I’ve never seen this Adam Rickitt acting (but I remember one of his songs. Horrible. He was half naked in the video).
Perhaps it’s better to compare him with Euro MP Michael Cashman (never seen acting).
114. To be honest, I’d be happy with either. I’ll be sticking with Davis as I’m not one to jump ship. I think both policy wise are quite similar although there are still grey areas about DC and the worry he would try to ape Labour, so it will probably go to personality. I believe the media will ensure to DC win though.
126. Rickett was widely acknowledged as being a very wooden actor. I wonder what work he has done for the party in the past.
The Tories need young, attractive, smart frontmen and women. There should be no one in the Shadow Cabinet who was an MP before about 1992. Cameron is not going to want to surround himself with old hands.
97 - I was going to post this thread below but in view of the Tory leadership election I didn’t - it isn’t finished but you can get the gist
As most posters are aware I’ve been saying for some time that the Tory Party are “punching above their weight” and to test/prove that theory I looked at the first Lib Dem defending seat on the 20/10/05 to see what result the Conservatives need to prove or disprove my point of view. That seat is Kingston upon Thames LBC, Canbury Ward where the result at the May 2002 election in the 3-seat ward was:
Lib Dem 1278,1215,1149 1214 43.0%
Con 751,718,714 727 25.7%
Lab 692,649,639 660 23.4%
Green 259,234,177 223 7.9%
Other 62
Turnout: 43.34%
I have taken the mean of the three votes to obtain the % share and for convenience ignored the “other “ votes.
In the Kingston upon Thames LBC Grove Ward election of May 2002 the result was
Lib Dem 1290, 1287,1172 1250 59.4%
Con 616, 613,576 602 28.6%
Lab 142,132,122 132 6.3%
Green 148,115,99 121 5.7%
Other
Turnout 36.0%
I have applied the same rational to obtain the % vote share however in this Ward there was a by-election held on the 11/11/04 and the result was:
Lib Dem 948 53.3%
Con 513 28.8%
Lab 213 12.0%
Green 105 5.9%
English dem 26
Socialist lp 17
Turnout 29.5%
Thus the Lib Dems lost 6.1%, Con gained 0.2%, Lab gained 5.7% and the Greens gained 0.2% and therefore I have my benchmark. I am estimating a turnout of 36.8% with a theoretical result of:
Lib Dem 905 36.9%
Con 635 25.9%
Lab 714 29.1%
Green 199 8.1%
English Democrat 24
Socialist Labour Party 16
Thus a vote share above 36.9% will be an excellent result for the Lib Dems,a good result at 36.9% and becoming poorer as the vote share drops.
A good result for the Conservatives would be keeping second place, a vote share above 30%an excellent one,dropping to third place means they are standing still.
Could anyone remind me the first day this parliament sat-I’m trying to calculate the lastlegal day the next general election could be contested upon under the Parilament Act?
130 - so what does Dan’s earlier post saying “In the North Kingston ward of Canbury (Richmond Park constituency) the Lib Dems held on very easily and increased their share of the vote from 43% to 51%. Lib Dem 1053, Con 668, Lab 301.” tell us?
Abbott and Portillio were good on this week tonight I thought. Discussion on rumours that DD may still pull out and whether LF was allowed to take his place under the rules!!!!!
132 - Voters aren’t voting Labour but the tories aren’t gaining these votes at least in Kingston.
133 - If LF insisted on a contest in those circumstances he’d be humiliated. Even worse if he won it would be laughable.
Davis isn’t going to climb down now, having spent the last 24 hours denying any prospect. I’m sure he feels he owes it to his supporters to see it through to 6 December. I’m not a lawyer either, but I don’t buy this idea put forward at conservativehome.com and other places that Fox would have legal grounds to step into the breach if Davis had stood down.
136.”I’m not a lawyer either, but I don’t buy this idea put forward at conservativehome.com and other places that Fox would have legal grounds to step into the breach if Davis had stood down. ”
It would be like a defeated candidate in an election being elected after an MP’s resignation!
135 Portillo thought the continuation for another 6 weeks was a disaster for the Tories and in particular for DD, but that he was having to do it because of LF. I’m not sure I followed that bit properly because Portillo also thought that the rules meant that LF could not take his place, which would imply it was not necessary. Andrew Neil thought the rules allowed it. There is obviously talk about it somewhere for this to crop up. There was also the imnplication of the LF campaign team being prepared.
Cloud cuckoo land stuff I’m sure.
I’m pretty sure if Davis pulled out it would be over. But I expect him to ring his mates at the nationals and say if they have anything to help him they better use it quickly.
115 - Interesting that the Lib Dem cllr who is quoted, John Crockford-Hawley used to be a Tory.
As long as the period between now and 6 December doesn’t turn into a six week long slanging match between the two camps and the time is used by the camps to discuss ideas and get their man in front of as many party members as possible then I think it will prove a very useful and fruitful exercise for the party and both candidates will probably emerge the better for it.
141 - That would be good. Lets keep our fingers crossed.
141 Portillo’s view was that in the 6 week campaign DC would have to make policy commitments due to the campaign and in particular to overcome the suggestions in the media that he lacks policies. He might then come to regret them later, whereas if leader now this could all be done within his own control.
Portillo also challenged his credentials as a moderniser. He said that apart from the type language used there wasn’t any evidence of it in the views he held. He gave examples which for the life of me I can’t remember now - sorry!
142 - The fixers in the Davis campaign can read polls as well as anyone I’m sure. Not much point in kicking lumps out of each other when it is apparent that, barring a major disaster on DC’s side, the result is already quite certain.
143 - Well, anyone who expects either Cameron or Davis to write a full manifesto for the next election at this stage is being utterly unreasonable. Discussing big ideas and where the party should go in a general sense with regard to policy is appropriate at this juncture - there is plenty of time for more comprehensive consideration of specific policies that the whole senior level of the party will be involved in anyway, not just the leader. Party matters, such as candidate selection and ideas for modernisation are perhaps something that can be discussed in greater detail at this point in time.
How many members do we really have? I’m struggling to believe we are up at 300,000
300,000 is the correct figure to the best of my knowledge.
umm…. What’s the current average age? I know I keep getting stick at work with comments such as “Aren’t you dying off yet”
82-Stodge
‘Of course after 8 years of opposition & humiliation’
You seem to have forgotten that Labour was in opposition for 18 years & the Liberals ????well thev’e been in opposition for more than 80 years,now that’s humiliation.
Are the Tories really about to elect someone who has only been at the dispatch box FOUR times in his Parliamentary career? Yep, they’re that desperate.
Why not get them to alternate at PMQs for six weeks?
150 - This is a rubbish argument because the terms of political trade have changed Eric. What matters, almost to the exclusion of everything else, is how you perform and look on TV. And don’t underestimate DC in the Commons - he’s like Tony Blair but with a much higher IQ and he can think on his feet.
A great idea 151 - but how would Tony Blair react?
Simple question: on each of the following policy areas who of DC and DD is more left/right wing? Given how little policy has been discussed in this beauty contest, it’s a toughie!!
Economy
Health
Education
Law & Order
Transport & Environment
Europe, Other Foreign & Defence
81. Rik, do you know what Andrew Lansley got his CBE for?
147 - They mentioned on Today that there will probably be 200,000 or fewer eligible voters though due to married couples only getting one vote (if they have joint membership), people joining after 1999 or something not getting a vote and people who give less than £15 per year not getting a vote (but the rule doesn’t apply in Scotland because their frugality is accepted in the Modern Conservatives). Something like that anyway. Hardly relevant if it is the expected walkover but it sounds as if the mambership system is a bit chaotic.
Well I joined after 1999 and I only paid the student rate membership of £3 and I expect to vote. If I do not get one I am going to picket Central Office.
150 - Bob Hawke had only been an MP for 3 years when he became PM of Australia. Brian Mulroney wasn’t even an MP when he was elected leader of the Canadian Conservative Party. Admittedly they had more life experience than Cameron, but standing at a despatch box doesn’t make or break you as a leader.
Why would anyone not get the vote because of joining after 1999? Has the three month membership qualification extended to become a six year one?
What sort of comment would it be on the parliamentary party if Davis wins? That they’re fickle fools?
On reflection, I think Fox was the best candidate. Cameron is a Blair clone with a dodgy past - and a dodgy future, judging by his refusal to be drawn on where he’s going to take the party. Davis is someone I have a lot of time for but his pisspoor campaign hardly augurs well - not to mention that he only gained the support of a third of MPs.