Can Cameron make the polls move?
October 21st, 2005-
How long has he got to prove he can make a difference?
There is only one reason why Tory MPs and Tory members want David Cameron as their next leader - they believe that he can lead the party to greater electoral success than the alternative. They desperately want to return to power and the inexperienced and relatively unknown Cameron appears to offer this prospect more than David Davis.
-
If Cameron is to lose the final ballot in the coming weeks it will be because the relative merits of him as an election winner compared with David Davis will have changed.
And the first thing the new leader has got to be seen to do is get the Tory poll ratings up. These have been stuck at about the 30% level for nearly a decade and a half with the party apparently unable to re-connect with many of the the millions who returned it at the 1979, 1983, 1987 and 1992 General Elections.
The challenge for a party leader is the relentless reminder at least four times every month of their party’s potential at a General Election from the new poll ratings that are published. And under new leadership they will be scrutinised even more - particularly in the early stages. There are four pollsters which carry out regular surveys and these were their latest figures - the starting point, if you like, for Cameron:
Populus CON 30: LAB 40 LD 21
YouGov CON 32: LAB 40 LD 20
MORI CON 29: LAB 39 LD 25
ICM CON 31: LAB 40 LD 21
If the Tory poll rating stays stubbornly at about 30% then the Tories can be ruthless - as Mrs. Thatcher and IDS will testify.
On the betting markets the Tory leadership developments have led to a slight move to the Tories on which party will win most seats at the next General Election. IG’s Binary spread-market now has the Tories at 36-42 (+2) against Labour’s 58-64 (-2).
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Cameron has got a few years to make the polls move (because any poll pre-Brown will be uselss) but only has one shot at the 2006 council elections. If the Tories don’t do well, he’s fluffed it. If they do do well, but in the old-style traditional Tory areas, then he’s saved. If they pick up seats and councils in new areas - where they haven’t played the game for a few or many years - then he is the saviour.
It’s an interesting question but I don’t see the polls moving much until Labour face an economic crisis. I think we WILL do pretty well in the locals next year particularly in London and southern England. I would not expect any miracles up north so early.
Does anyone know details of the poll in todays Sun. Apparently around 74% believe DC’s backgrounf made no difference. Not quite was being suggested by some posters. Was said to be polling well ahead of DD in the 18-35 year olds as well. Can’t find anything else though.
3 - The whole poll makes grim reading for Davis. It also suggests that A DC led Tory party would close to within three points of Labour and Labour’s lead would be 8 (I think) under Davis.
o/t, I see we won the Torbay mayoral election. Marcus will be pleased.
First obviously good sign of a Tory revival (possibly)
We’ve won the mayoral contest in Torbay.
4 - Cheers David - do you have a breakdown of the figures.
5 - psyche!!
8. Great minds
7 - Sorry I left my paper at home so no I don’t.
I know the Sun ended up pulling “The Sun Says” from the website yesterday since they looked daft supporting Fox
6 - Probably a bit to early to say. It could be similar to North Tyneside where we won it on low turnouts but lost it on the day of the Gen. Election. OTOH we did get a decent swing in Tynemouth perhaps on the back of the Mayrol result.
Doing well in the 2006 local elections ought to be fairly easy test for the new Conservative leader. In London, I would expect Labour to have their worst result since 1982.
5/6. Do you have the full results?
I read the turnout was very low (24%) and that the Independents polled 59& of the total.
13.”In London, I would expect Labour to have their worst result since 1982. ”
Glenda continues to repeat that it will a carnage for Labour in Candem.
Labour’s problem in Camden is that it’s being hit on two fronts, by both Conservatives and Lib Dems.
14 - I think London will be horrible/very good depoending on your viewpoint. But I expect the political map of London to look a lot bluer.
Happy Trafalgar Day!
15. Sean, isn’t there also a ward with the Greens in a good position in Camden?
PA reports:
An estate agent today became the Tories’ only directly-elected mayor in Britain after winning the vote in a South West seaside resort.
Nicholas Bye beat Lib Dem Nicholas Pannell in the second round of counting at Torbay, south Devon.
Mr Bye polled a total of 7,096 votes to Mr Pannell’s 5,197 after the Labour candidate and 11 independents were eliminated from the contest at the first stage and their supporters’ second choices distributed.
The result is a blow to Liberal Democrats who have a majority on the council and have since 1997 returned an MP for the parliamentary constituency which covers about two thirds of the local authority area.
Although the run-off was between Tory and Liberal Democrat, the independents between them polled more than 59% and one of them - Gordon Oliver - missed the second count by just 295 votes.
Mr Bye, 45, from Torquay, said the “very poor” turnout of just 24% meant it was not a “triumphant victory”.
He added: “I want to ask the people of Torbay to give me a chance. It is quite clear from canvassing that a lot of people did not want an elected mayor.”
Mr Bye, who was born in Paignton, Devon and graduated from Oxford University, has been on Torbay Council for five years and served a term as civic mayor in 2003-04.
There are already 12 other US-style directly-elected mayors in England but Mr Bye is the first in the South West.
Britain’s previous Tory elected-mayor, in North Tyneside, lost to Labour in May.
Torbay’s summer referendum vote in favour of having a directly-elected mayor came after councillors were criticised for closing public toilets and hiking car park charges at the same time as increasing their allowances.
As mayor, Mr Bye will be paid a salary of £57,500 and will be responsible for Torbay Council’s £150 million annual budget.
end
13 - Equaly importantly will be to do well in metropolitan areas outside of London - Bolton, Bury, North Tyneside, Leeds, Solihulll, Birmingham etc. Who knows if Cameronmania sweeps the country we might get a single councillor in Manchester, Liverpool or Newcastle - steady on I think I might be getting carried away!
£57,500 for a job doing not much where people don’t want you!
Fab!
Lambeth, Streatham South result
LDm 1211 (40.7%) [34.2%, +6.5%]
Lab 1466 (49.2%) [40.1%, +9.1%]
Con 301 (10.1%) [18.4%, -8.3%]
Grn 0 (0%) [7.4%, -7.4%]
Turnout 31.67%
20 - Being mayor or being an estate agent!
Lab/Lib Dems are really taking lumps out of each other in lambeth. It’s a desperate battle for Labour to try get the council back. We reckon we’ll take another seat at least in Clapham Town next year (we’re hoping for all three but I’m not convinced). Meaning Labour need extra seats from the Lib Dems. But in reality we should keep the coalition going there. Interesting result though.
22 - Heh heh. I guess he’s used to it then
Sorry unrerlated to the story but:
a) noticed while reading posting of a few days ago about effect of boundary changes that their was a prediction of a LD gain in Cornwall. Don’t LD have all Cornwall seats or is there an additional seat being created in Cornwall?
b)I know nothing about the Conservative constitution, but it sounds very complex and muddled if:
i) yesterday it was unclear if LF could go forward if DD pulled out
ii) today there are arguments over husband and wife memberships only having one vote (that could be fun!) and members being excluded from the vote if they have paid below a certain threashold for membership
iii) having a voting system in the MP rounds where under certain circumstances it is easy to fix who your opponent will be in the next round by getting your voters to vote for who would have been the 3rd placed candidate
iv) a voting system for the MPs that potentially can give a false position as to the front runner. For instance because there were 2 on the right of the party competing for votes the vote is split. So if either DD or LF had been knocked out instead of KC then the remaining right of party candidate could have topped the poll and the DC hype would have been less (although I admit it would have still be present as he did well anyway)
v) There was talk earlier that possible 3 candidates were allowed under the constitution to go forwards to the members, but that a 50% majority was needed by the winning candidate, which creates a possibilty of a stalemate.
Have I got this completely wrong? Are there good reasons for these scenarios?
What price Nick Robinson being the first commentator to put Torbay down as being “evidence of the Cameron factor” ?
Simple question: on each of the following policy areas who of DC and DD is more left/right wing? Given how little policy has been discussed in this beauty contest, it’s a toughie!!
Economy
Health
Education
Law & Order
Transport & Environment
Europe, Other Foreign & Defence
21. did the Green candidate actually get 0 votes or did they not constent the seat this time?
26 - I’m not giving you ANY odds on that!
I really really really don’t like Nick Robinson. Though it might be good for the party if our leader is so chummy with the top editorial guy at Millbank.
27. I don’t think views about Europe and Foreign policies could be placed in the righ/left wing axis.
24 - Although being an accountant I can at least empathise with him.
Mind you I’m starting to fear for my job with all this talk of a simplified tax system. Maybe Gordon Brown isn’t so bad after all . . .
25 - Yes Cornwall gets an extra seat and the Lib Dems should take all 6 .
31 - I’ve long been an advocate of simpler taxes. There’s no honest reason for the garbage we have now. The only thing was to keep income tax down but people are not stupid.
27 - good points, apolitical. You forgot to add immigration. Lets not forget Cameron wrote the Tories’ “policy-lite” manifesto of 2005, a document so short and vacuous it made a Daily Sport leader look like Pushkin.
All this fluffy “I feel your pain” stuff is just so much guff. Wait until the Labour attack dogs start on his more right-wing leanings.
32. I thought the break up of Falmouth and Camborne was mean’t to give the Tories a decent chance in one of the two new seats that are created, was it St Austell?
35 - I think the prediction for the seats is based on 2005 election results as were. If the Tories continue to advance against the Lib Dems as the Lib Dems go all leftie then a number of Lib Dem seats will be vulnerable.
34 - The problem with Labour’s ‘attack dogs’ is that they are now so utterly predictable. Cameron clearly knows how to play the media and for the first time in a long time the Tories will have a leader as media savvy as Blair.
I posted this yesterday 36, what do you think? 442. With respect Mr Tall the vast Majority of seats you have displaced The Tories in second or are about to are Swansea West (never won), and Cardiff South and Penarth, last won in an earlier form by the Tories in 1935!
True the Tories need a few Seats from you, but assuming Cameron, it is likely outside Cornwall that in South the Tories will put you under Serious Pressure, and the Newbury effect may well spread to some of your more tenous Southern Held Seats Romsey etc. Conversely greater Tory targeting, and a willingness by Tory supporters in hopeless seats like Swansea West to turn the tables on Labour by doing what was done to their Party by Labour Supporters in the 1990’s by using you lot to hurt Labour may well net you considerable compensation in the form of Labour Seats like Swanswea West or Manchester Gorton if Kaufman retires, carried off at least partially on the back of Tory Anti-Labour Tactical Voting.
35. Falmouth and Camborne is split in: Truro & Falmouth and Camborne & Redruth.
37. Max, Cameron is not a God!
32 Thank you.
33 “There’s no honest reason for the garbage we have now. ”
Agree 100% (and regardless of political views on levels of tax and distribution). We get inundated with statements on CTC even though, like most people with children, we are only ever going to qualify for the basic payment. At one point we received 24 statements (8 on one day!) in a period of 10 days, each with a brochure, just because I notified them with a change of status. The calculation is redone, the payment re scheduled and guess what we get the same CTC as we know we arer always going to get! What a huge waste of time and these basic payments go people on quite large incomes so it is a great waste of money that should be focused on those thast need it.
It also undid the break in the financial affairs of married couples as it is based upon joint income and each party receives the same statement so notifying each other of their income.
A complete shambles. Rant over.
39 - I know that! I just don’t think he’ll lose much sleep over the attacks from the Labour party. As I’ve said previously he’s the first leader we’ve had since Lady T who appears to have the self-confidence to stand up to the Labour party.
35 - Afraid Not , As in a number of Counties , the Boundary Changes in Cornwall have not been kind to the Conservatives
41. I got the impression that some posters here are prasing Cameron as a God
38 - NoOOoo …. I aM trAPped in yEt ANotHer incARnaTIOn ….
I’m surprised no one has mentioned the alleged confrontation between Conway and a couple of Fox supporters in the tearoom yesterday over the Evening Standard Fox Story, as the press are reporting.
43 Andrea, I’m reminded of the sketch in Yes Minister when Sir Humphrey is explaining the honours handed out to civil servants:
CMG - Call Me God
KCMG - Kindly Call Me God
GCMG - God Calls Me God
46. Tabman, St Tony against God Cameron……. it would make me run to the polling station to vote for Nick Clegg!
27. http://politics.guardian.co.uk/toryleader/story/0,16473,1597449,00.html
Heh heh. Daniel Kawczynski’s photo on his website http://www.daniel4shrewsbury.co.uk looks like he’s wearing a really dodgy hairpiece.
Just thought I’d share
49. I sometimes a bit concerned by the photos some MPs choose to post on their websites. They could do a better selection.
Though I appreciate Nick Hurd showing his chest hairs in his website pictures gallery……..
49 - Still less humiliating than wearing a Shrewsbury Town top I would have thought.
49 - and a strangely incomplete CV.
50 - I actually find Nick Hurd really quite attractive (and I certainly didn’t feel the same about his dad, a previous Old Etonian member for Witney as it happens!)
52 - At least we find out how is name is pronounced (Kawczynski is pronounced kav - chin - ski).
Assuming it’s Cameron, I’m interested in how long he has to make the polls move before the grumblings start. Certainly he’s got a better chance of getting support than previous leaders, with the economy slowing fast.
It’s not just the length of time before the polls move of course. It also depends on how well he does at keeping himself personally popular with his MPs, and handling dissenters.
He should have every chance to do well in the May locals, he’ll still be in his honeymoon; and doing well should boost him a little. I started predicting that Labour would have their worst ever result in May months ago, good to see Sean is now with me in predicting a very poor Labour result. I think I was probably exaggerating a bit though. Mid-term blues don’t usually set in properly until years two and three.
I’m also interested in Cameron’s Shadow Cabinet. Very hard to predict such things of course. How’s this?
All leadership contenders in Shadow Cabinet except Clarke if he says no. Interesting prediction from someone that it’s wise for potential contenders to stay out so as to be better placed to benefit if things go wrong. Against that is the reduced coverage and the fact that being a backbencher doesn’t enable you to plot, because plotting upsets the party. What jobs will go to Cameron’s campaign organisers (and who are they?). He won’t have both Rifkind and Clarke at Chancellor and Foreign. I think Davis may have been damaged by the contest and so won’t be higher than Shadow Home. If Davis does really badly in the run-off, Cameron may only offer him something in the bottom half, and he’ll say no. Willets, Osborne or Clarke for Shadow Chancellor? Rifkind for Foreign or Defence.
53. yes, he’s good!
Talking about MPs pictures on their website. This is Clare Short’s class (St Paul’s Grammar School, Birmingham):
http://www.epolitix.com/NR/rdonlyres/6C0C1901-E45B-431F-B98F-711DFEF17C20/0/clareshortStPauls.jpg
which one is Clare?
54 - what was that? Chav-kin-ski?
Andrea, Highgate ward in Camden voted something like Lab 29%, Con 27%, Green 24% in 2002, yet returned 3 Labour councillors. The Greens have considerable support across Camden. They could either do Labour a lot of damage next May, or else take votes away from the Lib Dems and save Labour.
Max, it’s going to be much tougher to gain seats in Metropolitan Boroughs outside London, simply because of last year’s all out elections, when we were 10%+ ahead of Labour. OTOH, if Cameron really is made out of teflon, who knows what may happen?
57 - Erm kind of.
Had a trickle of comments from constituents on Cameron - Tory-leaning ones are quite chuffed - “Watch out now, Mr Palmer”, that sort of thing. Floating voters a bit sceptical and disappointed that it wasn’t Clarke, but that could be a local phenomenon (he’s my constituency neighbour). I’d expect a hardening of Tory certainty to vote which should move them up a few points in the polls, but nothing dramatic yet. When and if Cameron is actually elected leader, he’ll get heavy coverage for a bit and that should be good for a further boost, after which the media will look for a ‘Cameron faces first reverse’ story to sell some more papers.
A problem remains that so far the choice has been almost entirely on style rather than substance, based on a one-sided reading of the reasons for Labour’s 1997 success - it helped that we had a fresh young leader, but it wasn’t IMHO the main point.
59 - I have it on good authority he’s one of the least chavvy people around; he conducts himself like an East European Count, all bowing and clicked heels.
61 - A vast improvement on Paul Marsden then!
60 - the main point being “time for a change”, Nick? Which might well apply again in 2009/10. In which case you could see Cameron as not so much a help, but less of a hinderance than other leaders might be.
“Still less humiliating than wearing a Shrewsbury Town top I would have thought.”
David Mellor-style?
I suppose Shrewsbury has the pub quiz distinction of having been represented by all three parties over an interval of a couple of months.
62 - depends what he gets up to after dark, young maiden
65 - how is his poetry?
66 - he’s more into prose:
“My friend.–Welcome to the Carpathians. I am anxiously expecting you. Sleep well tonight. At three tomorrow the diligence will start for Bukovina; a place on it is kept for you. At the Borgo Pass my carriage will await you and will bring you to me. I trust that your journey from London has been a happy one, and that you will enjoy your stay in my beautiful land.–Your friend, Dracula.”
I see DC was quizzed again last night on Channel 4. Surely the standard response to these questions should be:
“Please ask all cabinet members this question as well.”
O/T - I have just read someone in another post commenting that not all Tory members will get the vote. Does anyone know who will not?
I joined after 1999 and last time only paid the £3 student subscription and there was some talk that might exclude me. Anyone know?
Thanks.
69 - Presumably you can’t vote if you only join now… (otherwise Millbank and Cowley Street might suddenly have a lot more Tory members that all vote for Davis…)
Cameron is a huge gamble (but understandble, because stuck as they are in the low 30s, the Tories must gamble) - and it will be very interesting to see if he can make an impact. Wowing the Tory party is a very different matter to wowing the country. To take an entirely unscientific sample of one, my wife’s first reaction to him came the other night when he appeared on TV. She is uninterested in politics, is significantly to the right of me (a new labourite) in terms of attitude to matters such as immigration, tax, law and order, likes Blair, but does not like Brown. Unprompted her reaction was simply, ‘he’s a twa*’.
“when not involved in the political mainstream, he loves to unwind by… connecting with nature in his own small orchard.”
What is it with Shrewsbury MPs and connecting with nature? They should clear off and leave nature alone.
55 - While the Conservatives should do very well next May in London , it is more than likely that they will actually lose ground in the Metropolitan Boroughs . These seats were last fought in 2004 and the results were extremely bad for Labour then and I expect some
recovery from that position . Councils polling next year with seats last fought in 2003 offer a little better prospect but again in 2003 the Labour results were rather poor .
69 - I got my vote in 2001 having only paid my student membership.
60 - An unpopular government is the main reason you won. All an opposition can do is look fresh and ready to govern. You did that as soon as Kinnock was replaced by Smith and we’ve begun to do that under Howard.
It’s an age-old adage (but no less true) that elections are decided by the success and failure of the government rather than the opposition.
Well Maude has just said on Sky that if you joined after 1999 you need to have paid a minimum of £15 for a vote. Well I paid the CF rate of £3 and was never told I might not get the vote.
I can tell a complaining letter is on the cards!
John B (71) - but, I have to ask, is your wife a good judge of men?
75 - That’s RIDICULOUS! A member is a member.
Disgraceful behaviour by CCO. Maude is a total arse
76 Nice one! But Of course, I’m not the one to ask. I do love her dearly, I should add!
Can people seriously have a go at answering this question???
OK, who is more left wing?
Economy eg DD
Health
Education
Law & Order
Immigration
Transport & Environment
Europe, Other Foreign & Defence
Thank you, A
Lets hope he is wrong, I am going to ring Central Office now to find out. I am not going to miss out - I have been a member for 4 years!
71/76. Pardon me the question, but what does “twa*” mean?
53 - When I’ve shown pictures of the young Douglas Hurd to women, they’ve generally said he looked surprisingly handsome in a rather grave and serious way.
Missing a T
80 - I’ve contacted people and am waiting for an answer. Will write to CCO in furious manne if this is true (though it doesn’t actually affect me). As I say this wasn’t in the rule last time I got all my stuff.
82 - I am not sure if I would like if Nick ended up looking like his dad. He seems less serious looking than Douglas and dare I say it more normal.
I’m afraid I can’t help you with this one, James. I am aware that only those who pay the minimum subscription will get a vote, but I had rather assumed that this was waived for CF members.
CCO relies on the local constituencies providing a list of those of their members who are eligible to vote, so if you aren’t qualified, but are on good terms with your local Chairman or agent, see if they’ll be prepared to put you on the list.
Andrea - normally used re Peter Lilley or John Redwood but would include Lord Archer and in some circumstances Wayne Rooney.
Just range Central Office. According to them if you are under 23 and you paid the CF level subscription of £3 you should be entitled to a vote.
The comments from Francis Maude were in relation to some other question re. membership.
Phew!
[84] What you guys need is a little trick called the block vote. The Executive of each Constituency Association meets in what is no doubt these days no longer a smoke filled room, makes its choice on the basis of accumulated personal resentments, and casts the number of votes based on its alleged membership (the size of which is none of CCO’s business). That’s how successful political parties do it.
As long as your constituency have recorded your date of birth, and that you qualify for the reduced fee then you have full voting rights. If you do not receive a paper contact CCO who will send yopu a tendered ballot, and in the event that these tendered votes are needed to call the reult, then each case will be examined on its merits. The results of the tendered ballot will be made public at the same time as the main vote.
90 - Who will you be voting for Andy?
91 - Another by-election result - Labour gain from Conservatives in Rossendale.
Thanks Andy - I don’t want to be missing out now - this leadership campaign has kept me interested for weeks!
90 - “in the event that these tendered votes are needed to call the reult, then each case will be examined on its merits”
In that event, won’t the flying pigs distract the vote counters?
Could some helpful Conservative member who is denied a vote take them to court and really mess things up.
70 - I dont think Labour or the Lib Dems mind which it is - possibly an inexperienced high tax Tory that reminded people of Blair (who we will just have lost) might be better than a distinctive “tax cuts all round for my mates” Tory.
70/86 et al. The membership deadline was set at 6th September. Qualifying membership data had to be sent by last Friday to CCO, and they are categorically not accepting any updates this time: any members accidentally missed off the list must go through the tendered ballot process.
94 -
87. Icarus, so I suppose it’s not something positive. I googled to find the meaning, but I’m not sure the meaning I found is the right one.
98 - it has a metaphorical meaning to denote a person you hold in contempt.
91. Cameron. Those I knew who were backing Clarke are now backing Cameron, those I knew who were backing Fox are now backing Cameron, several I knew who were backing Davis are now backing Cameron.
I think item 2 on the Urban Dictionary is strictly correct but I dont think I have ever heard it used for that, only as a term of relatively mild abuse.
99. I found that “twa*” could mean “the female reprodcutive organ”. So I was not sure about Cameron being described in that way!
69, 77 and 80 - only people who are fully paid up members of the party in good standing, with 3 months membership behind them at the time of the start of the contest (6th Sept 05) will get a vote as “qualifying members”. As a student, you will be a paid up member if you paid £3 and have been in for three months. Non-students who paid less than £15 to renew their membership will not have a vote. Couples who pay a joint membership of £15 will only get one vote. People who have been members less than three months will not get a vote.
The party website says “You have to have been a Party member for at least three months before the close of the ballot to vote; for the purposes of this ballot, you have to have joined before 6th September 2005.”
I am a member of the National Membership Committee so I hope I have got every nuance of the rules right!
102. You should talk to Alistair Campbell if you want to learn some similar words to describe Cameron.
104. Alastair, of course.
Andrea - remember you need a T(ea) at the end (of the day)
102 That’s an Americanism Andrea. It’s a far more taboo word there than in the UK as it has a different meaning. They have of course a word beginning with F which means “bottom” in American, and can be used in company, but means a completely different part of the female body in the UK and would certainly be bleeped out on TV here.
103 - good job we all joined back in May, gents
108 - Ah, so who would you be voting for Tabman?!?
107 - and they use the word “bum” to describe a tramp. Confusingly “tramp” can mean both a person of no fixed abode, or a woman of loose morals.
109 - that’s a matter between me and my conscience
. My first choice didn’t make it to the final stages, alas, but his spirit permeates the party.
Rik W. Does the couple membership allow single sex couples or unmarried couples or does it only work for legally married people?
111 - If it makes you feel any better, your first choice now has a job presenting the breakfast show on Magic FM - the No. 1 Easy Listening Station in London.
Have I missed what Nuala is going to do now? She has been the kiss of death so far. The world will want to here her views and contact Joe Coral accordingly (ie bet for whoever she doesn’t choose)
hear - sorry awful!!
112 Single sex or unmarried couples are fine.
111/113. Tabman’s first choice was Adam Rickitt. He’s still disappointed the libdems couldn’t get him.
They need an actor with a better career than Liz Lynne.
64,Another seat that has beeb held by all 3 parties in recent years,albeit with a name change,is Oldham East and Saddleworth(former Littleborough+Saddleworth division,held by Tory MP Geoffrey Dickens until his death in 1995,gained by the Lib Dems in the by-election that year,before being taken by Labour’s Phil Woolas in 1997
Mr. Icarus 112. It is true that neither Sir Malcolm or Dr. Fox have reached it to this stage and I am, still trying to decide who to vote for. Mr. Cameron, for all his youth, went to a good school and a good university and breeding shows. Mr. Davis, however, has the experience. It is a very difficult choice.
Basically I have just been told exactly what Rik says (which is good since he’s on the membership committee)!!
So panic over. The problems will be if some CF branches haven;t got their membership information in in time. If so you would need to contact CCO for a ballot as indicated above.
And Colne Valley was held by the Libs in the 1970s(shoot me down in flames if I’m wrong),before being a Tory marginal in the 80s,and now resides in the Labour column;I’m sure there’s others,I might look when time allows!
118 - yes and that was in elections not due to the flighty nature of the idiot MP.
Chris Davies who was the Lib Dem by-election winner is now a leading (if a little drugs obsessed) Lib Dem MEP.
119 - please god vote for Davis Nuala
123 - Ha ha ha - I agree!
Here’s a quick puzzle: which seat, in the past fifty years, been represented, by a Conservative, an Independent Conservative, a Liberal, a Labour, an SDP and a LD MP in turn?
Nuala - re breeding someone said yesterday that Cameron was related to The Earl of Denbigh and Desmond - an odder lot I have yet to meet.
118&121 - East Dunbartonshire has been held by the Conservatives, the SNP, Labour and now the Lib Dems since (I think) the mid-70’s.
125, Ross and Cromarty?
118/121/127. 118/121. Leeds North West, Falmouth and Camborne and Bristol West have been won by all 3 main parties in the last 4 elections.
Though Leofric Holford Strevens (I might be wrong on the last name) ran them close.
103 - Thanks Rick W - With those rules set out, I should all being well get my vote.
128 - very close geographically.
119 ” Mr. Cameron, for all his youth, went to a good school and a good university and breeding shows. ”
Is this person a wind-up merchant??
132. Caithness and Sutherland?
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
Danny Alexander gain 2005
DD is avioding talk of drugs for the next 6 weeks. Good move?
Yes, Lorcan, Caithness (in its various forms). Of course, Robert Maclennan represented three of those parties.
134. Eric Leslie Gandar Dower (Conservative) from 1945 to 1950.
Sir David Robertson elecyted as conservative in 1950, 1951 and 1954, then as Independent in 1959.
George Y Mackie (liberal) from 1964 to 1966.
Robert Adam Ross Maclennan: first elected as Labour, then he became Social Democrat (in 1981); elected for SDP in 1983 and 1987 and for Libdems in 1992 and 1997.
Nuala, who I believe is a young Conservative (of the Joan Hunter Dunn variety) has been posting for some months on this site. Her views, though to date always wrong, have been very informative.
OK I’m out a little bit but inverness has equally interesting history
Ind Lib, Con, Lib/Lib Dem, Lab, Lib Dem
and the SNP hold the Scottish Parliament seat!
Presumably he will start every speech “As I have promised I will not talk about drugs and will not accept any questions about drugs”
Which will translate as ” Vote for me not that alleged crack head”
Twa* is indeed a vulgar reference to the female naughty bits. But Andrea, don’t worry, you are not the only person to get the meaning wrong. The famous Victorian English poet Robert Browning used the phrase “cowls and tw*ts” in his religious verse Pippa Passes, thinking the T word meant a kind of hat for nuns.
Mr Icarus, whilst I appreciate the flattery I am sadly no longer a Young Conservative, though I would not put myself as being old either. My support for Sir Malcolm was based on his Euroscepticisim, experience, urbanity and eloquence. None of the remaining candidates has all of these qualities, although some have more than others.
Re: 118 & others: Of course, boundary changes may have a lot to do with changing political composition as well. Colne Valley has changed and Littleborough & Saddleworth has been subsumed into other areas.
144 - The vast majority of Littleborough and Saddleworth is in Oldham East and Saddleworth. Littleborough is essentially one Rochdale ward which has gone back to Rochdale (and subsequently helped Rochdale turn orange again).
138 Mackie (Alan Rusbridger’s father in law) was defeated by Maclennan and now our Noble Friends in the House of Lords - wonder how they get on?!
[61] an East European…what? Is that a spelling mistake?
[103] Listening to some guy on Today this morning, it sounds like lot of writs will be flying about re: husband-wife memberships…
It’s not unfair. If someone pays one subsription, then they should get one vote.
That’s not clear. If a couple pay one subscription, then they should only get one vote.
147 & 148 - it should be made very clear now on joining that £15 buys you a single membership “unit”, ie one vote not two.
146. Some MPs contested and lost a seat before entering the Parliament. So they could still have the MPs who defeated them in the House (albeit in another party).
Then some MPs could have lost some selection votes to someone who’s now in the Parliament (for ex Howard lost the selection process to John Major in Huntingdon, to Matthew Parris in West Derbyshire and to Tim Smith in Beaconsfield).
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4363818.stm
This is a little bit reminiscent of baseball caps and rollercoasters…
121. Patrick, would it be possible for you to put a space between words after you have used a punctuation mark? The lack of spaces makes your comments quite frustrating to read.
152 - more reminiscent of “y’know”, and “no glottal stops” Blair I feel!
154 - yes, Newcastle United’s most famous supporter…
151 - Didn’t he lose to Alan Clark in Devonport too?
151 - Howard lost to a lot of people, including Alan Clark for Plymouth Sutton.
156. I don’t know, but it seems that no constituency wanted him!
Oh my God! Did he really say “keep it real”?
What does “keep it real” mean?
Ah was AC Sutton not Devonport? .. hopeless today me
Who said keep it real?
“Keep it real”…means ‘to be yourself’..don’t be fake and try to be something you are not……some good avice there for conservative politicians
“real” in the slang sense is best described as authentic, or non-aritficial - the same could not be said of Cameron’s use of the term, to be honest. I only hope he doesn’t start referring to bling.
160. ‘Be yourself’, often used by wannabe gangstaz as a farewell.
162 - Can’t help feeling it applies equally to a certain Labour politician . . .
He’s not going to start doing bad Ali G impressions a la Richard Madeley is he?!?!
166. Considering Dunky’s one of Cameron’s supporters (and was one Hague’s main supporters during the baseball caps days), I fear that Cameron will show up dressed like this one of this day:
http://www.alanduncan.org.uk/ppimageupload/image13197.JPG
Public school boys always try and do this “cool awesome man” effort, its actually ironic and another way of showing the contempt they hold for those who are not PLU
154. No Rik - to put it into context ‘keep it real’ was a catchphrase of Ali G, who was himself a parody. Cameron was trying to be serious. Definitely a baseball cap moment.
167 - Ali G was/is quite a racist character actually.
168. PLU?
“167 - Ali G was/is quite a racist character actually”
Have you seen the clip of Borat getting a crowd of Americans in a bar to join in singing “Throw the Jew Down the Well?”.
Will he end up as the Tim Westwood of Politics? He’s going to have to get some chrome spinners for that bike
http://www.timwestwood.com/westwood%20interface.html
174. is he a singer?
174. He is a radio DJ, playing hip hop.
PLU - obvious - Plays for Leeds United
174 - and the well-educated son of a bishop, which makes his current persona look as false as it can be.
178. It is said that he was the inspiration for Ali G.
171 Chrisco - I think it means People Like Us. The posh folk.
It’s gettin a bit desperate if the anti-Cameron brigade (who of course aren’t at all worried about him) are trying to make out that this is like William Hague’s basball cap. Those pictures defined Hague for many people, this is a tiny news story that will attract little or no interest.
Still can’t find anything more about the Sun poll but it did seem to indicate that the public are less concerned about his background than some people on this site.
Aaaah. NQOCD!
Now it reminds me of Pulp’s song Common People.
181. Details of poll on MORI site. Only 500 ish questioned, of whom 24% did not vote in May and 3% couldn’t remember how they voted!
181. I am not talking in terms of media impact (remember, he isn’t leader yet, and this isn’t in the middle of a general election campaign), but rather in terms of both being skin-crawlingly embarrassing attempts to, well, appear to be ‘keeping it real’, as it were.
181 - It’s a piece of minor silliness, but if (and almost certainly when) Cameron becomes leader, he’s going to have to avoid making any big errors of judgement in the first couple of months. Had Hague attende