MORI: Brown’s lead would be 3% with Cameron and 7% with Davis
October 21st, 2005
The Mori polling organisation have just published details on their website of the Tory leadership poll that was featured in the Sun this morning.
With a sample of just 508, compared with the normal 1000+, the survey has to be treated with a little bit of caution, but it does show Cameron having 33% support amongst the general public compared with 13% for David Davis and 11% for Liam Fox who was still in the race when the field-work was being carried out.
If the next election saw a Cameron-led Tory party up against a Brown-led Labour then the split would be CON 36: LAB 39: LD 18. If Davis was leader the shares become CON 33: LAB 40: LD 19.
A total of 79% disagreed with the suggestion that Cameron was “too young” to be PM while 74% did not think that being an Etonian would be an impediment.
These are all very high figures and things could start to go wrong for Cameron if future polls started to show a decline. There are still six weeks to go.
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Surely 4% smaller?
1 Whoops. I’ve changed it.
Could someone tell me what the MOE is for a poll of 500 people?
+-6%?
4 - I don’t think it quite works like that (so a +/- 3% MOE with a sample of 1000 does not mean +/- 6% at 500). The further up the sample size scale you get, the more additional people you need to get the MOE down by 0.1% for example. I would guess closer to +/-4.5% for 500.
5 - about 4.2%. Inversely proportional to square root of the sample.
It’s perceptions that count in politics and this will only add to the view that Cameron is a more likely winner than Davis, which will sway the odd Tory member.
The poll doesn’t actually show that of course. Before the next election the public will have heard a lot more from the new Tory and Labour leaders including some debates of substance. I doubt many of the public are interested enough in politics to know much more about Cameron than that he made a very good conference speech (according to the media) and is likely to be the new Tory leader, although some will have listened to him in an interview or read an article by him. So the public’s views now probably tell us nothing about the real chances. In any case the margin of error on a poll of 500 is around 4%, so there’s no statistical difference between the two men.
PS Mike I think you’ve mis-corrected the title?
“The court was told Mr Saatchi used “distortion, intimidation and evasion” tactics during a dispute over the use of communal spaces. During a row over the use of a disabled toilet, Mr Saatchi was said to have gone into a “deep rage” and demonstrated how he would grab a company director by the throat.” the guardian web site today
Sounds as if he would be good working for the Tory party (this one is Charles)
Gavin 7. I’m not having a good day. I’ve amended the title.
6. Inversely proportional to square root of the sample
I know what a square root is, but beyond that you’ve lost me…
10 - if the margin of error at a sample of 1000 is 3%, the margin of error at a sample of 500 is 3% x sqrt(1000)/sqrt(500).
sqrt(1000)/sqrt(50) = sqrt(2) = 1.414ish.
11. Ta bv. I feel like I’ve learned something today.
Considering the amount of comparatively positive coverage the Tories have had in recent weeks I think these polls aren’t good for the party - they show that whatever shenanigans they pull off with the leadership, they remain firmly the nation’s second choice.
13 - Until Labour mess up. That’s the way of the world. I don’t know any Tory who thinks we’re the people’s choice right now.
11 - Sorry to be a pedant as it’s clearly a typo but BV means sqrt(1000)/sqrt(500) = sqrt(2)
13. Oh come on now Stonch. The Tory brand image is so bad that it is going to take more than a few headlines about their baby-faced potential new leader and his alleged drug-taking past to turn the ship around.
14 - You met Rik Willis?
14 - We’re in the process of going through a leadership election with two almost unknown contenders, no one knows what the policies are going to be, no one knows whose going to be in the Shadow Cabinet its hardly surprising that the electorate don’t see us as a government in waiting - yet.
Getting back to Davis I spoke to someone recently who used to work as an actress.
She said that the fundamental problem with Davis’ communication skills is that his diction is terrible. She said that the first thing he has to do is have proper elocution lessons in order to improve it.
Of course it’s too late now to change this in a couple of weeks. But the point is he knew the contest was coming up - even if he had started in the summer he could have made a substantial improvement.
16 - I actually think to a large extent our ship has turned around. I think for the first time in the last three elections we were not seen as a disorganised rabble in 2005.
True we have a long way to go but we’ve begun to move in the right direction over the past 18 months.
Apparently it is 0.98/(square root of sample size) (for 95% confidence level). So 1000 gives +/-3.1% and 508 (in this case) gives +/-4.35%. For 99% confidence it is 1.22 instead of 0.98 and for 90% it is 0.82. God, that’s sad. I will be working it out for everything now.
20. The polls would suggest otherwise David.
13 Stonch. The general point is well made but remember that almost without exception telephone surveys have a Labour bias. This is because Labour supporters are much more likely to answer random unsolicited phone calls and agree to take part in surveys.
15 - yes I do. Thanks.
22 - Real results are always better for Tories than polls. This is a fact.
This thread will end up as somebody’s A-level statistics course work. You get it all on PB.C
Their is of course one party for whom (if accurate) this poll is very bad - that is of course the Lib Dems. Plug those (Cameron) figures into the predictor and the LD’s are down to 20 seats. Maybe Rik will be dusting himself down and preparing for another tilt at Sutton & Cheam after all!
19 - All politicians in his position ought to have sought a serious presentational appraisal from professionals before they push for the leadership, and take action accordingly. If they don’t, they’re bound to let themselves down as Davis has.
Further to 23. The survey found that 43% of those who said they had voted in the General Election said they supported Labour. The actual figure was 36%.
19 - Mike L, you are a constant source of reason on here. Many of the greatest orators / media manipulators of the twentieth century had elocution lessons, even very late in their lives. Of course Churchill had an awful lispth and Thatcher used to screech too much (hence the adoption of the deep voice). Thatcher’s oratory may have been criticised at times, but she knew how to make a headline before the term “soundbite” become common politics parlance.
30 - George Osbourne is another who would benefit from voice coaching but it’s probably a bit late for that now.
& Gordon Brown.
& Charles kennedy
I can feel a Nick Hornby-esque “List the worst 20 MP speakers” challenge coming on…
Re: 27 - Seeing as no one has heard anything from us for over a month, I’m surprised we got above 15% Max. Back in the real world and away from the Tory “beauty contest” and a week of free publicity, it will be interesting to see how the polls move through the Autumn and into the Winter.
I think Cameron has eighteen months to turn the Tory position from likely defeat to probable victory. I’ll be looking at polls more seriously come January.
Anyone else listening to the Cameron webcast - some nice rock music on in the background as we wait - think it was the conference music - it is making me think the Conservatives are cool
Anyone want to take bets on how many times he will say the following:
“modern”
“compassionate conservative”
“call me Dave!”
Get real, James.
34 - Was it the (now former) MP for Lancaster & Wyre who had a terrible put-on northern accent?
Jimmy Hood and Jimmy Wray would be two of Scotlands worst!
The webcast browser says: Song - David Cameron, Artist - David Cameron… anyone recognise who is the real author and perfomer?
It is him Baskerville - he is multi-talented!
Gavin (7)”Before the next election the public will have heard a lot more from the new Tory and Labour leaders including some debates of substance.”
I thought we werent allowed to talk about substances.
31 - From the Sun, 13 May 2005:
“POSH new Tory boy George - just don’t call me Gideon, please - Osborne, who has the challenge of facing Gordon Brown at the dispatch box, is soon to undergo some much-needed voice training, I learn. Tory spin doctors are in despair at his mousey voice and say he squeaks when under pressure during television interviews. After all, a professional voice coach did the trick for Lady T for so many years! Maybe his voice will break naturally one day.”
No-one is worse than bloody Ian McCartney (though I wish him better as he’s not well poor chap).
40 - Have you decided who you’ll be backing yet James. Going out with a group of young Tory accountants tonight (honestly the fun never ends!) so I’ll try to find out which way that important constituency is leaning.
11 BV - This isn’t the same formula that you use for the Bar Charts is it ??
Only teasing ……….
45 - formula? Goodness, no, they’re all intricately hand-crafted and purely by eye …
22 Not the Polls in June 04 or May 05 Chrisco !
43 - I don’t mind him at all. He always seems nice enough (the comments about Oliver Letwin not withstanding) and he’s had a pretty hard time of it . Quite a good rugby player when he was younger apparently and its said he would have played for Scotland Schools if he’d been to the right school. Princes Anne’s son being the best example of someone who would never have got a game had he been at Border’s school rather than a private school.
Yes Max I have decided. For me this situation is ideal as my top two candidates are through. Both men have a lot going for them and we are very lucky as a party.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4363818.stm
Somebody called Mr Kendrick has been hugging David Cameron!
50. That is so funny. Was he warned he’d be asked that or did he come up with it on the spot?
Keep it real.
O/T - but this might be a good time to raise it given the hullaballoo has died down.
There have been some excellent discussions recently on liberalism in all its forms and party guises. Book value, Julian R and myself have set up a non-partisan forum to discuss small-l liberalism. You’ll find it here, and we welcome thoughtful contributors of the type who tend to congregate here.
:oops; Julian H, of course, not R!
Actually, given the favourable coverage Cameron has received, I’m not that impressed by a +3 point advantage over Davis in terms of the Conservative share of the vote. Does anyone have comparable results for the 1994 Labour leadership contenders to hand? I’d be surprised, but willing to bow to the evidence, if the bounce for Blair relative to Prescott or Beckett was not much larger. It’s a bit of a reminder that while many Conservative contributors are getting over-excited about Cameron, there is a temptation to assume that because he seems pleasant and interesting from the point of view of most of us who are interested in politics, that people outside care or respond at all.
52 - the site seems to be down…
52, 55 - use this link instead.
But Lewis, David Davis would be a better PM than Prescott or Beckett would even have been and most voters accept that.
52 - “that said”, we’d also welcome Rik
[58] Just added it to my favourites - after all, you’ll need someone with a smidgeon of common sense
Both links are working for me.
53. Ha, you seem to have merged myself and “David R” into a combined monster. Unless I’m stuck in some kind of Internet Tory Fight Club equivalent (what a thought), we are two different people.
59 - have you signed up IA?
Lewis 54. My guess is that in the polls that weight by past vote - YouGov, Populus and ICM - the Tories will have a margin over Labour in early January. The question is whether they can sustain it.
If you weight the current Mori survey by past vote then Cameron’s Tories are about level with Labour under Brown.
It’s said to take time before news events and coverage start to have an impact in the numbers.
Blair’s effect was much more immediate: but then the government was more unpopular and Blair had a higher profile than friend Cameron.
58 -
64 -
Rik, you’re getting sensitive in your old age 
After all, Sophia said I looked like Phil Mitchell t’other day.
62. “the polls that weight by past vote”. Mike, excuse my ignorance, could you elucidate a tad on how these polls work with such a weighting system?
52. Tabman, are you going out of your way to ensure that I don’t finish my PhD?
29.”The survey found that 43% of those who said they had voted in the General Election said they supported Labour. The actual figure was 36%. ”
If the “refused to answer” and “can’t remeber” are mainly (shy) tories, the lead could be more or less similar to the GE one.
I was expecting a better showing from Cameron after weeks of Cameronian love and Brown not much in the spotlight.
52. Tabman, will you continue to post here, right?
67 - What are you complaining about? “In my day …” I managed to finish mine in four years despite spending all my time either on the river, in the gym, or beating my personal best on “F15 Stike Eagle” (played on a 386 - remember them?)
“52. Tabman, will you continue to post here, right? ”
Will the Pope continue to be Catholic?
70. Yes, but could you have combined that with pb.com on top?
69 - fear not! Or are you trying to get rid of me again?
72 - it would have meant I would have got no sleep! Fortunately I wasn’t into politics at University.
73. I wasn’t trying to get rid of you (again). You’re deliberately twisting my questions.
Right, it is now after 5 p.m., I have been sitting in front of my computer since 9 a.m. and I have not written a single, solitary word yet. As they say down in Addis Ababa - ‘Abyssinia!’
74 - I was teasing
76.Tabman, now go and open a topic about the best way to get rid of NHS
75 - You seem to have written a fair number of words on here though - so not a completely wasted day
77 - there are others who can tell how to do that far better than I
79. You should try to come with more “creative” way to do it……
On the previous thread Marcus Wood was discussing Torbay and the fact that a defection of a councillor from Lib Dem to Conservative would give them control of the council . It has long been my contention that control of a council is in fact a poisoned chalice with very little power to achieve anything positive and many opportunities for criticism when taking difficult decisions which may well be unpopular . Translating into GE prospects I think the best situation is to be the main opposition on a council winning byelections with the ability to attack the ruling party whether it holds the seat or is the main challenger .
I do realise this challenges the raison d’etre of fighting council elections which in theory is to to try to gain power .
“Will the Pope continue to be Catholic?”
I prefer the variant “Does the Pope sh1t in the woods?” or Rhodri Morgan’s “Does a one-legged duck swim in a circle?”
81 - Interesting point Mark - to follow this on then, you could have a ‘rogue’ Lib Dem defect to the Torys to give them the poison say 9 months before the general election, and then defect back afterwards. Not suggesting that anyone tries it, but an interesting thoery…
82 - Another variant: “Do fat dogs f@rt?” A coinage of my Northern Irish friend who came up with such classics as “Don’t drink on an empty head.”
83 - Paul Marsden?
82 - Does the Tin Man have a sheet metal cock?
83 - I do recall an occasion when a Conservative councillor defected to the SDP and then back after the 83 GE . The common suspicion was that the first defection was bogus .
63 Observer Can you point me at ny sources. Interesting comparison and I would like to have a look in detail.
79. Tabman, seriously speaking, I’m still trying to place you on the Italian political spectrum to see what party would you (and your followers) vote for.
81 Mark - Don’t totally disagree with where you’re coming from on this.
It’s a largely thankless job strewn with Governmental statute and guidance to act as conduits for with marginal capacity to respond with initiatives (civic or political) of your own (irrespective of party)due to cash starvation from that self same Government.
Add to that the fact that Local Autorities are being used as back door
collection agents of an extra defacto income tax (Council Tax)for which we often get the blame it sometimes makes you wonder why you bother !
90 This frequent agreement beqween us is becoming rather worrying . You even look like electing the leader I recommended in June .
Re Mark’s point about controlling councils. Nobody wants to control councils, but every party wants to claim they are big in local government. Here in Norwich we have a NOC council that no party wants to be in charge of. The LibDems crushi0ng diappointing in the Norwich South parliamentary seat has been laid partially at the feet of the fact they lead the council. I am told they believe only be returning to opposition can they do better against Clarke. Equally Labour dont want the hassle either. After 60 years of controlling Norwich they are settling quite nicely into attacking the LibDems (oh yes, and winning back council seats!)
92 - I do not disagree at all Tone , the next stage may be to deliberately lose an election so the other party has to take control .
92.”The LibDems crushi0ng diappointing in the Norwich South parliamentary seat ”
It wasn’t a bad result in the end. I don’t know if they really expected to unseat Clarke (the Libdems tend sometimes to be too over-optimistic). I suppose Labour would have threw lots of resources in NS if Clarke had been under a serious threat.
Now the Libdems are in a good position to try to defeat him next time (and Labour couldn’t concentrate lots of resources only there because they have lots of marginals to defend next time)
Labour hardly tried at all in this seat - we had two leaflets from Labour compared to 6 (at least) from both the Tories and LibDems. Plus where I live in pretty solid Labour territory, the Greens Tories and LibDems had tellers but not Labour. The LibDems here did seriously believe they’d do it and I’m sure they’ll plough the resources in for next time - especially as boundary changes remove the solidly Tory voting Cringleford & Colney Ward and lump part of the LibDem-leaning Lionswood estate into the seat. Their activists were crushed (and I know several of them personally) at the result. 3,000 isn’t near enough to be close but near enough to be upset. Don’t forget, Labour here in Norfolk are sorted next time - Norwich North should be safe for them and that leaves them with GY to defend against the Tories and NS against the LibDems. It’ll be a grand fight!
95. Are there any chances of Clarke trying to get the nomination in Norwich North and not Norwich South?
91 Don’t push it mate!
Tough times for DD supporters I agree, but no surrender.
TTFN early night for TB
IIRC Norwich North only takes in a small (and I mean small - less than a polling district) worth of Norwich South, in order to allign parliamentary seats with local government seats. Norwich North without Taverham & Drayton suddenly becomes a Labour seat with a 8-9k majority over Tories (IMHO) and so is much better than Norwich South (3k majority Lab over LDs). As for Clarke making the jump I don’t think so. I think Gibbo will stand down, but my guess is replaced by somebody like Steve Morphew, high profile leader of the Labour Group and Councillor for the most deprived ward in Norwich.
98. Ian Gibson willl be 71 years old in 2009 and he suffered a mini stroke last year, so his retirement won’t be a surprised.
Many MPs on Labour Left could be on the verge of retirement.
The site seems not very frequented tonight. Are all posters getting drunk in a pub?
I see the left wing Peter Hitchins is on HIGNFY tonight.
100. and what has he said?
Nothing of note yet. (it’s Will Self btw). Just an angry man
102. any other interesting guests?
99 - “Are all posters getting drunk in a pub?”
Drinking tea in a tea room, I expect
104. Those tearooms should be very busy place……….
32-And if GB could occassionaly wash his hair it would certainly help his image a bit.
103. Not really
43-Disagree,Prescott is worse with his rubic cube of the English language.Complicated more when he puts on a yorkshire accent when on the media in the north & then switches back when down south.
106. yes, GB looks like he’s not washing his hair.
107. Anything interesting on British TV on Friday night?
(I thought I got on your nerves with my unnecessary comment about the pointlessness of the tories earlier today…)
109. Water off a ducks back.
The TV on a Friday night is quite appalling. First Friday I’ve not been out for a couple of months. Won’t make a habit of it.
110 - I don’t know, HIGNFY and QI are usually good value. There’s also a documentary on Catherine the Great. Is it true about the means of her death?
110. Here not only Friday night is appalling, but the remaining nights too!
I’m currently watching a primetime soap which intends to be dramatic, but it’s hilarious in the end!
I just realized I forgot to see “Midsomer Muders” this Wednesday!
111. Yes it could be worse. Jonathan Ross tends to annoy me now (overexposed) and does anyone in the country watch newsnight review? The radio and a bit of online poker is tempting me.
89 - am I one of Tabman’s followers? I don’t know all that much about Italian politics but I think I would probably vote for Margherita. They are probably more left-wing than me, but I wouldn’t vote for any of the parties allied with Berlusconi and Bossi.
TABMAN:
Look. You’ve got it all wrong.
You don’t need to follow me. You don’t need to follow anybody! You’ve got to think for yourselves. You’re all individuals!
FOLLOWERS:
Yes, we’re all individuals!
TABMAN:
You’re all different!
FOLLOWERS:
Yes, we are all different!
BOOK VALUE:
I’m not.
I’m voting for Silvio.
Paxman is talking to some woman about a dead parrot … she hasn’t claimed its only resting.
114. Book Value. Interesting choice. Margherita (what an horrible name!) is socially conservative (the majority of them at least). Many of them were in the old DC. They are champion of traditional marriage, they pay lots of attention to what the Church says.
118 - that’s interesting: I had the impression that only a few of them had come from the DC. The coverage we get of Italian politics outside the government is quite poor here.
117. The dead parrot is main news here too!
116. I think you could probably be confortable voting for UDC (Christian Democrats).
120 - What’s the difference between the UDC and Forza Italia?
119. Not all of them come from the DC, but one of the founder parties of Margherita was the Italian People’s Party (PPI) and PPI came from DC.
Their leader doesn’t come from DC, but he had a very particular political journey. Some of their politicians weren’t in politics during the DC days, but I think the majority of them voted for DC.
I keep expecting John Cleese to come on during these news reports. Of all birds, it would have to be a parrot.
121. they’re in the same coalition. UDC is Buttiglione’s party (do you remember him? the EU commissioner)
124 - Yes, He got shafted for being a Catholic. Very distasteful, I thought.
What party does Giulio Tremonti belong to? I’ve always found him an amusing character.
125. No, he didn’t get shafted for being a Catholic. He got shafted for not being the right person for that portfolio.
127 - Pffftt, that may have been the official line.
126. Forza Italia.
AH Matlock, you’re very informed
129 - I am wise beyond my years! And that’s no mean feat considering I’m an old bugger as it is.
122 - thanks. How would you classify Italia dei Valori?
128. A Communist MP said during the Buttiglione’s debacle: “I’m a Communist, I don’t believe in free trade, would you put me in charge of the Free Trade partfolio?”
Btw, Book Value, if you would vote for Margherita, you would be allied with the commie!
132 - is there anyone I can vote for where I wouldn’t be allied with the Communists or the Lega Nord or AN or Alessandra Mussolini’s bunch? After all, if the Italian Consulate sends me a European election ballot paper again like last year, I need to be prepared…
131. A personalistic list. He won’t probably survive without Di Pietro, but then in Italian politics everybody always survive
I think the best party for you (and Tabman) could be the Radical party (Pannella and Bonino. She is a former EU Commissioner). Socially liberal and a bit economical liberal.
134 - I quite like the Radicals except their foreign policy is mental. It sounds like they would intervene everywhere in the world.
132 - Well, I can understand your opposition to Buttiglione and that’s fair enough, but he seems a good chap to me.
133. you should vote for some little parties outside the main coalitions.
If you vote the centre.right coalition you get AN and Lega; if you vote for the centre-left coalition you get the 2 communists parties
135. The Radicals are always on hunger strike, so probably their mental stability starts to have some problems………
An undervalued problem for the Tory party is the focus put on the leader to pull success out of a very worn and patched hat. They talk as if the leader can do it alone by the magic of personality and ‘policies’. Both have their place with the latter overvalued and the former undervalued, at least since Thatcher.
These blow hards forget that in 1978 Mrs T understood that she had to meet the new Britain at least half way and had some very liberal, advanced (for the day) public positions on working women and equality. She had a good team she had built around herself and a party that wanted to win and showed some discipline. But that unity oak started to wither in 1987 and by 1993 was in full wilt. And until last year that was still the case.
Now the party wants to win again. I mean, really wants to win again, having become bored with the wrangling and sniping and self immolation. Its all very well being purist but it counts for little without power. Thus the Flight affair, a line in the sand that worked a treat. A little bit of discipline and sticking to the script worked well. But in a few months the stretch to a victory was too great to make.
There will not be a clause 4 moment, there doesn’t need to be. We had a May 2005 moment. And that defeat simply added to the speed of change. Or at least it did in the party, which all too often is well ahead of the MPs in meeting the future.
Did it focus the MPs? The same MPs that have caused such mayhem in the past with rebellions and briefings, plotting and playing up? Have they yet recognised that the enemy is on the other green benches; the ones opposite theirs not the ones behind?
I hope so otherwise there may come moments of shocked realisation to many of them as their local party wants to know why they have not been pulling in unison to help us win. There will, unless they forego their hedonism, be little progress in the polls and a GE because they will have spoiled the party.
But if they do what they ought to and we have a communicator as leader and have both for long enough for people to see and believe we are different to what we were, then the policies those people like now will be policies they will still like then but with a big difference. They will then be happy to identify them as Conservative policies. And when they do that they will be willing to talk about voting Conservative, and we shall hear no more of the conversational gambit that frustrates me so often when I try to talk about getting rid of NuLab.
People tend to glower a bit, look a little shifty because they know where I stand, and then say honestly that they cannot stand Tony Blair and want him and NuLab gone. But then they add the killer punch, ‘But there is no-one else is there?’
if i understand the guardian correctly, davis is proposing a 7p cut in the basic rate of income tax! Down from 22 to 15. That is a massive cut. That must surley be tempting to some tory members. especially seen as, according to the sam article, cameron is proposing to maitain increased public spending.
Will this sway members at all? I have no idea
136. A H Matlock, we’ve to agree to disagree on this matter
135. book value, the funny thing is that it seems AN and Communists are considered more accettable than the radicals by other parties.
If you go on holiday in Chiantishire, don’t talk bad about the commie (former and present).
I think that when I mentioned that a region like Tuscany is left wing, Tabman was surprised.
115. Tabman the Preacher book value
99. Despite my protestations about doing some work Andrea, that is precisely where I ended up…
Blue2win - sorry I haven’t been able to get back to you. I had a look at the polls for the relevant period (on the links on the right-hand side) and, although they generally show a slight strengthening of the Labour lead, the biggest “Blair bounce” occurred after he became leader on the 21st July. However, I was mainly thinking of the Euro Elections (links to those results also available) in June, which did show, I think, Labour doing even better in the South than did in the 1994 locals, on which I can’t find detailed figures.