So how big will Dave’s victory be?
October 24th, 2005-
Can Cameron get more than 80% of the membership vote?
With Cameron looking an odds-on certainty to succeed Michael Howard there’s a new market on the share of the vote that he’ll get in the membership ballot.
Given that the current best conventional bookie price on him winning is 1/10 why not try a different bet where the returns could be higher. You can get an attractive price with Paddy Power’s “what will Cameron’s vote share be” punt.
The prices are: Cameron share of 0-65% 2-1: 66-80% evens: more than 80% 5/2.
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In this market everything depends on how much weight you give to the YouGov polls of party members which have been appearing at regular intervals. The last had Cameron beating Davis by 72-22%.
The big judgement you have to make is whether the six week campaign is going to strengthen further the Cameron position or if Davis is going to eat into the total. This is a hard call but in the absence of any other evidence the 66-80% price of evens looks like a good bet.
With ballots due to be mailed from the end of next week it is reckoned that a large proportion of votes will be cast in the first period so campaigning activity towards the end might not have much of an impact on the outcome.
Mike Smithson
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It seems that Davis isn’t able to revitalize his campaign. Conway’s recent declarations seem to confirm that DD’s campaign is in a mess and they don’t know what to do (other than blaming others) to resurect DD’s leadership bid.
So the ball is again in Cameron’s camp. It seems he could only lose by making a serious mistake.
How many potential tests and hurdles could Cameron face before the majority of members will vote?
I suppose Education will be front and center in the political debate for the next few weeks.
Labour is probably hoping in a faux pass by Cameron, but it could be an opportunity for him too. He’ll probably get even more coverage and outshine Ruth Kelly is not that difficult.
Then Labour should pay attention that the voices of dissents within the party about the new plans will be limited just to the usual suspects.
The question is is Davis really trying to win or is it a case of just showing up as a paper candidate?? After the MP’s ballot he said he was quoted as wanting to ‘fight for my beliefs’, that is a curious turn of phrase for someone who is truly in the race. Since then every time I see him he looks like someone who is going through the motions, putting on a show just to validate a members ballot.
Slightly off topic, but I am sure I read somewhere that DC was aginst lowering the age of consent for homosexuals and scrapping section 28. Is this true? If it is, it puts him in the traditional, andin my opinion backward looking section of his party. I may be totally wrong!
3. He wasn’t in the Commons when the age of consent was lowered. I don’t if he has ever commented in public this issue.
3. Section 28.
He voted for the “compromise” proposed by the tories and then he was absent on the vote for the repeal.
3/4 - Cameron voted in favour of civil partnerships, twice, so there’s no danger that he is on the moralising wing of the party. He also has the backing of Alan Duncan, who wouldn’t declare for someone with socially illiberal views. DC’s right hand man, George Osborne, also ignored a three-line whip to vote in favour of adoption by gay couples. These men have no problem with letting people lead their own lifestyles.
I’d feel sorry for Davis if he hadn’t been such a backstabber during the Hague, IDS & Howard leaderships…karma!
6.”DC’s right hand man, George Osborne, also ignored a three-line whip to vote in favour of adoption by gay couples”
Osborne voted for the amendment to exclude gay couples from the Adoption Bill (Alan Duncan voted for it too).
But then he voted for the repeal of Section 28 and for the civil partnership. He supported the decision to treat gay couples as married couples for tax purposes.
3/6. While we’re on this subject, the equality bill will pass through the Commons soon. More than 100 backbenchers signed an Early Day Motion presented by Brighton MPs to include GLBT people in the bill to outlaw discrimination on goods and service sector.
The government seems not very keen to include it. They seem on the “we’ll do in the future” line.
The Independent on Sunday suggested that a big rebellion could be expected in the Commons and this could lead to a defeat for the goverment. I think the Independent is overexagerating and a defeat is unlikely.
There’re strong pressures to table an amendment to the bill and I think it’s likely somebody will table it. But for seeing the government defeated the majority of the tories MPs should vote for the amendment and I dobut it’ll happen. I aslo doubt that all the
Labour MPs who signed the EDM will vote for the amendment if the government promises it’ll act in the future. Many of them are loyalists and they could think twice before rebelling ( I don’t doubt the likes of Glenda and Jeremy Corbyn will rebel if the amendment will be tabled).
It could be interesting to see Cameron’s position about this issue. Then Labour couldn’t use an eventual “no” against him if they don’t support the inclusion too.
Btw, some weeks ago some posters were “excited” by the new girl in Daily Politics team. Here’s more info about her:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/4316150.stm
As I stated on ATR this morning, Although the current polls indicate a comfortable DC victory, I think there will be enough Dvis supporters/hard right wingers amongst the leadership to scupper an 80%+ victory so I’m very happy with the 6-4 I got on 66-80%
9. Andrea. Did you see Daily Politics today? I think that Jenny is improving, she seemed noticably more comfortable in front of the cameras. Think it was a case of first week nerves… she didn’t appear to have done much TV work before from that writeup in your link.
I miss Daisy from the programme, but with her surname I’m probably biased…!
RE 10 phew 6-4 and you were good enough to share it with us (though too late for me, having just joined in). Not so sure at evens, though see Mike’s thinking.
So a mixed bag then on the votes in the house, but one of the more progressive tories on social issues.
Thanks for all the info.
BTW, I am watching PMQs tomorrow, and, typically, Blair AND Prescott are away so we have Hoon, against Chris Grayling (sp?,) and David Heath, who is a v. good speaker (although I am bias, but he was excellent on ID cards).
Bally Eric @ 7: Possibly *kismet* ? (especially near Trafalgar Day)
13 Do u mean Wednesday??
11. She’s not that bad. Trouble is she’s being compared to Daisy and she was class.
15-Yes. It’s getting late!
13. Hoon and Grayling. That will be a thriller!!!!
13.”So a mixed bag then on the votes in the house, but one of the more progressive tories on social issues.”
In this new incarnation Bercow is the most progressive tory on those issues.
Then there’re some other MPs with a decent record (for ex Michael Fabricant). Ken Clarke has a decent record in recent times too (a mixed bag like Cameron).
11/16. Why is this Daisy so missed? What has she done?
The problem is that politics could become a socially liberal dutch auction with everyone out to big up there credentials. It may actually be worth being radical and doing the right thing for the good of society as a whole rather than pandering to every minority interest that comes up. It also may do the debate no harm to have politicians who in a tolerant spirit point out ‘concerns’ with various moves.
20. The cynic in me says its more her eye-candy status than any particular achievement….
22. Do you have a picture? This new one is very good looking too.
22. In my case. the cynic in you is quite correct.
24. Could I protest fot the fact that TV show usually have many good looking girls and not many good looking boys?
I’m sure if Edwina had still been in the Commons, she would have tabled an amendment to the equality bill!
25. Oh I don’t know about that necessarily…beauty is in the eye of the beholder though!!
25. Old brillo pad has an attractive appeal to a certain kind of woman I’m led to believe.
26. yes. I probably find beautiful someone you find not goodlooking and you probably find goodlooking somebody I find not beautiful.
Is this the Daisy you were talking about?
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40256000/jpg/_40256159_daisy_profile.jpg
28. That’s her…
28. That’s a bad photo. Looks much better in the flesh.
30. Although it is horrid being interviewed by her, you’re always too distracted to be paying attention to the questions….
20 - Jenny Scott was following the lib dems around during the eelection campaign. I have to admit that I rather looked forward to her reports :oops:.
Sorry Daisy fans but she gets my vote!
32. ukpaul. Why, because she’s been on the trail with the LibDems, or for altogether more shallow reasons?
If the former, then I believe that Daisy worked as a LD researcher for quite a while. Seem to remember reading that somewhere.
33. I think she worked in chatshows press office.
I think Woody’s got it about right - Cameron will finish somewhere on the order of 65%, but there are enough knuck.. erm.. I mean hardliners out there to prevent him getting anything like 80%.
33 - Absolutely and completely shallow reasons I’m afraid…….
Looks like the 100,000th post will be tomorrow morning now unless there’s a late night flurry.
36. I fear I will sleep through it. I wonder what the stats are for the most posts by contributors.
Whoops. Was Gorgeous George’s trip to the US a wise one?
http://www.drudgereport.com/flash4.htm
I did think that David Cameron would be bright and brilliant but now I am not so sure. I don’t really know much about the policy differences between the two candidates, and I am worried about his attitude to the drugs question. I predict 62.17% for Cameron.
Daisy was Kennedy’s “Alastair Campbell” for a few years, with mixed success. She’s very nice actually.
39 - 62.17% hmmm? Are there enough tories left to push the split to 2 decimal points?
Should be a walk in for Cameron, 70% at least. Will give him a lot of authority. Media do and will continue to love him. At the moment he cannot do wrong and that will last. Conservatives will zoom up, win some by elections. Sounds like the SDP back in 1981.
Remember the polls at and after their formation, SDP 40%+, Cons 30%+, Labour 20%+, Libs 7%. Crosby and Hillhead by elections! - then —-
Did not realize the Conservatives were split until I heard from John Major on Sunday.
39- I suppose the danger of a leader who had been damaged by drugs might be that he would one moment not know his own mind and the next be quite unwarrantedly certain.
I have never heard anyone suggest that David Cameron is damaged by drugs. He seems quite shiny to me.
41 There’s 300,000 of us Pimpernel… surely your ’superior’ brain can fathom it out ?
35 Quite so AHM there are probably enough Blair..erm.. seduced by recent events to prove you right.