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The Mori polling organisation have just published details on their website of the Tory leadership poll that was featured in the Sun this morning.

With a sample of just 508, compared with the normal 1000+, the survey has to be treated with a little bit of caution, but it does show Cameron having 33% support amongst the general public compared with 13% for David Davis and 11% for Liam Fox who was still in the race when the field-work was being carried out.

If the next election saw a Cameron-led Tory party up against a Brown-led Labour then the split would be CON 36: LAB 39: LD 18. If Davis was leader the shares become CON 33: LAB 40: LD 19.

A total of 79% disagreed with the suggestion that Cameron was “too young” to be PM while 74% did not think that being an Etonian would be an impediment.

These are all very high figures and things could start to go wrong for Cameron if future polls started to show a decline. There are still six weeks to go.

How long has he got to prove he can make a difference?

There is only one reason why Tory MPs and Tory members want David Cameron as their next leader - they believe that he can lead the party to greater electoral success than the alternative. They desperately want to return to power and the inexperienced and relatively unknown Cameron appears to offer this prospect more than David Davis.

If Cameron is to lose the final ballot in the coming weeks it will be because the relative merits of him as an election winner compared with David Davis will have changed.

And the first thing the new leader has got to be seen to do is get the Tory poll ratings up. These have been stuck at about the 30% level for nearly a decade and a half with the party apparently unable to re-connect with many of the the millions who returned it at the 1979, 1983, 1987 and 1992 General Elections.

The challenge for a party leader is the relentless reminder at least four times every month of their party’s potential at a General Election from the new poll ratings that are published. And under new leadership they will be scrutinised even more - particularly in the early stages. There are four pollsters which carry out regular surveys and these were their latest figures - the starting point, if you like, for Cameron:

Populus CON 30: LAB 40 LD 21
YouGov CON 32: LAB 40 LD 20
MORI CON 29: LAB 39 LD 25
ICM CON 31: LAB 40 LD 21

If the Tory poll rating stays stubbornly at about 30% then the Tories can be ruthless - as Mrs. Thatcher and IDS will testify.

On the betting markets the Tory leadership developments have led to a slight move to the Tories on which party will win most seats at the next General Election. IG’s Binary spread-market now has the Tories at 36-42 (+2) against Labour’s 58-64 (-2).

Mike Smithson

Six months of betting - six weeks to go

Three quarters of a way into the eight month battle for the Tory leadership it is now down to just two men - the two Daves - Cameron and Davis.

On the betting markets there’s been a slight easing of the Cameron price and a tightening of the Davis price. Many punters had been piling into Cameron in the expectation that the contest might be over this weekend. Now the battle is going to carry on there a lot of position covering happening as punters try to get some cash back by laying Cameron.

Now Davis is the only person left who can beat Cameron his price has tightened.

Things should settle down in the coming days and we’ll all have to wait until December 6th for the final outcome.

The chart shows the implied probability of the two men winning based on the best betting prices since the contest was called in early May.

Best betting exchange prices; Cameron 0.12/1: Davis 7.2/1
Best bookmaker prices; Cameron 1/12: Davis 6/1

Mike Smithson

With the final MP ballot due to take place this afternoon a YouGov poll of Tory party members in the Telegraph this morning has Cameron 59%: Fox 18%: Davis 15%.

This poll is taken very seriously because a similar survey ahead of the 2001 membership ballot predicted the final result to within one percent. Other findings:-

The poll shows a further move to Cameron since the last similar survey eleven days ago. Then the Cameron would beat Davis by 66-27%. In the summer Davis had a big lead amongst the membership.

In the betting on who will be eliminated today Fox is 0.5/1 on the betting exchange and 4/6 with a conventional bookmaker. Davis has a 1.64/1 exchange price and is 11/10 bookmaker price.

The suggestion that it might be all over tonight with the runner-up conceding has led to the Shadow Education Secretary’s price tightening even further. The idea that a bet today could see winnings tomorrow, even at 1/10, is appealing for punters wanting a quick and what they see as a sure return.

Best betting exchange prices; Cameron 0.14/1: Davis 11/1: Fox 14.5/1
Best bookmaker prices; Cameron 1/6: Davis 6/1: Fox 8/1
IG’s Binary spread-market. Cameron 80-88: Davis 5-11

Prediction Competition
Paul Maggs writes: David Cameron is the clear leader with all but two competitors saying he will win, and with an average score of 93.0 votes. However, the other two contenders are almost dead level, with Liam Fox on an average score of 52.8 votes, and David Davis averaging 52.2. Even if we add all the predictions together, Fox has a lead of just 29 votes, out of nearly 5,500 for the Fox and Davis predictions combined. Davis predictions split 25-25 between second and third place, with 27-24 for Fox.

Mike Smithson

Will the runner-up tomorrow concede defeat and avoid the membership ballot?

As the BBC is reporting tonight Tory officials are preparing for the possibility that the whole Tory battle could be over this week. With so many MPs now switching to David Cameron the suggestion is being made that whoever comes second might pull out and not put the issue to the final ballot of the membership.

For this to happen Cameron would need to be so far far ahead in tomorrow’s vote that it would be hard for the runner-up in the MP’s ballot to sustain the fight. A threshold of at least 50% of MPs voting tomorrow would surely be needed.

Such a decision would mean that winning punters could be paid by the weekend.

As the chart showing the implied probability of victory based on best betting prices shows David Davis and Liam Fox have had different experiences of the leadership race in the past month but both are heading in the same direction.

Cameron has continued to pick up huge support on the betting markets during the day and now the best you can get is 1/5.

In the fight for second place Davis has retained a lead over Fox in the betting but the gap has been narrowing and it still could be Fox manages to squeeze into the runner-up place on the exchanges and with the conventional bookies. The IG Binary spread-market has now put Fox as second favourite.

In the last two Tory leadership elections David Davis has pulled out even though he did not have to. After the re-run first ballot in 2001 Davis came second from bottom but decided not to carry on his fight. In 2003 he stood aside to let Michael Howard have a clear run. Could he do the same tomorrow if the numbers do not add up?

Leadership Betting
Best betting exchange prices; Cameron 0.2/1: Davis 7.4/1: Fox 12.5/1
Best bookmaker prices; Cameron 2/11: Davis 7/1: Fox 8/1
IG’s Binary spread-market. Cameron 79-87: Davis 5-11: Fox 6-12

Mike Smithson

For his next trick…

What recent speculation there’s been about the political future of Tony Blair has mostly concentrated on the impatience of some of his own MPs to get rid of him: the prospect, for example, of Glenda Jackson as a stalking horse next autumn. But could it be that current events in the Conservative party are making Blair keener to continue?

Even Tony Blair’s political detractors have to see the skill in the way he conducts himself at Prime Minister’s Questions. What is his technique? Does he answer the question with overwhelming rhetorical force and make his opponent see the error of his or her ways? Of course not. Blair does something more important – he understands that what really matters is the soundbite that makes it onto the TV news. And so he plays his role ironically – a raised eyebrow is always saying to the viewers: “I’m with you. I know this is all silly schoolboy stuff, but I have to play along.” This style humiliated Iain Duncan Smith, and prevented William Hague and Michael Howard from landing serious blows on him despite their greater forensic skills.

All in all, Blair gives every impression of loving it when he fights Tories – and that probably isn’t an act. So the prospect of duelling with the impeccably media-trained David Cameron may increase his determination to go on. He just needs to persuade his MPs to let him.

Currently the best odds on the year of Blair’s departure are: 7/2 2006; 7/4 2007; 9/4 2008; and 5/2 2009 or after. Betfair also has a market broken down into three-month periods.

Some readers may have noticed that odds are available on the Conservative leadership election. The best odds there are currently: 1/5 Cameron; 5/1 Davis; 8/1 Fox.

Philip Grant
Guest editor

Mike Smithson returns tomorrow.