Why I’m betting against the opinion polls
November 1st, 2005-
Take the 3/1 against Cameron getting below 66%
At the May 5th General Election one of my biggest wins came from betting against the opinion polls. From my analysis I was convinced that they were overstating Labour and I backed my judgment with a four figure amount per unit spread bet. 
At a time when the likes of ICM, Populus and several others had the party in the 40s I bet that the equivalent of the GB share of the vote would be less than 38.6% - it finished up at 36.2%.
I have the same feeling today about the Tory membership polls on the leadership contest. Clearly Cameron looks a winner - but by how much? Is it really going to be by the 76-24 margin predicted by the Sunday ICM poll of members or could we see changes between now and when the result is announced on December 6th.
I’ve just placed several bets at 3/1 with Paddy Power against him getting below 66% of the votes. There are several reasons:-
The current vote share prices are: Cameron share of 0-65%3-1: 66-80% 4-9: more than 80% 9/2.
Interestingly the full details of the ICM poll show that Cameron gets 81% support from male members but only 72% from females. In the North he’s getting 81% support compared with 71% in the Midlands and the the 39 year old gets a share of 82% from the over-65s compared with the 72% from the 55-64s.
Mike Smithson
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Camerons new found greenery is unlikely to go down too well either.
Something to bear in mind.
1) Cameron is winning because most Conservatives think he is the best chance for the party to win the next election.
2) Many people are very unsure of exactly what he stands for.
3) If Cameron wins very big, he will be able to do what he likes, which might not make members happy.
4) The party probably wants hinm to win but not with too big a margin.
5) So many right wingers can vote for Davis, knowing that Cameron will win, but insuring against a swing to the left.
Mike. Which betting company is taking bets on the % each candidate gets? I can’t find it on IG.
Roger 2. There is no spread market - yet. I’ve bet with Paddy Power . Unfortunately they will only let me put on £59 a time though I have got several bets on.
Go to the PP site, click on novelties, then the Tory leadership and the vote share moarket is on the top right.
2 - Roger. Paddy Power.
Well I think that’s sensible Mike. I think it will be roughly 65-35. No possibility of Davis winning but I think he has a fair size firm support.
McLetchie resigned. Who next for the McTories?
Many thanks.
MORI also shows DC well ahead of DD with the general public, though “don’t know” is a similarly popular response. The figures, as quoted by Sean Fear on the previous thread, are 40/34/21 (L/C/LD) among those ‘absolutely certain to vote’ (Labour does better, as usual, among those who are less sure). This is against a background of considerable economic pessimism - 44% think the economy will be worse, vs 6% who think it will get better. No issues dominate as especially important (terrorism and world affairs wins by a nose). MORI over the last few months has shown Labour steady at around 40% with the Tories around 30%, so the 34% is an improvement for them, though entirely at the expense of the LibDems (-5%, Lab +1%). All generally fits the picture of the public not currently paying much attention but vaguely aware that the Tories are getting a lot of coverage.
In response to a query: I believe the average MP stay is about 10 years. But it’s not a bell curve - the marginals throw people in and out all the time, while Ian Wright in Hartlepool can look forward to being Father of the House in 30 years or so with complete confidence if he wants.
This does make sense but my betting record of late has been so appalling that I’m reluctant to lay any more (illogical, I know). However, another reason is support of this case is - why would anyone support Cameron who is not ready to support him now? Perhaps some Members are “don’t knows” because they are waiting for the hustings, but I find it hard to see how Cameron’s charms can win over people who are not already won over.
7 - Generally bad news for the Lib Dems then. I think it’s fair to say that Labour have to do something bad for them to fall behind the Tories. But there’s a steady drip of bad press for Labour and good press for Cameron which could prove important in a year or two if it carries on.
5 - Too early to say. Unlikely to be a betting market though - IIRC their wasn’t one for the (fairly) recent Lib Dem contest.
If Ballot papers go out this weekend, and members can fill them in and return them as soon as they like - wouldn’t this benefit DC, and reduce the effect of any last minute turn around?
Depending on how many of the members are likely to return their papers before the end of campaigning, of course.
11 - Most of them will be back by return of post if anyone is going to fill them in I would think.
Stuart Wheeler couldn’t in his wildest imagination have imagined how much TV time his millions to the Tory Party could buy him in TV time. Suddenly everyone wants to know his views on everything. I’m surprised some other rich publicity seekers havent jumped on the band waggon
Well the Lib Dem donor guy has got a lot of publicity
13. I had a chat with him at conference about poker. Very nice chap. I wonder really though whether there is a case for state funding. I have little knowledge of how this works in other countries so if anyone would care to enlighten me…
12. Sorry to be thick, but what do you mean by “return of post”?
15 - When you get them you deal with them and put them straight back into the next post. Pretty much means dealt with straight away.
16. thanks
RHIP. MS can bet a serial number of times, the rest of us have to be content with just once.
(For those of you from a sheltered background: RHIP means ‘rank has its privileges’).
Davis has made a better fist of presenting his policies than I expected. They are terrible policies (bringing back grammar schools when 50% of school leavers go to university?) but I imagine they will have a certain appeal to the go-ahead people in the Tory rank and file.
Meanwhile Cameron increasingly reminds me of a story I read as a child, in which children go diving for pebbles from the bottow of a stream. When they first look at them, shining in the sun, they think they are jewels and make a heap of them. But when they come back to them a few minutes later the sun has dried them and they are just boring, dull pebbles…
Miuke smithson It may be that it is too early for me, but your sentence in the header confuses me: I’ve just placed several bets at 3/1 with Paddy Power against him getting below 66% of the votes Yet 3/1 is the price for him getting 0-65%.
Do you reckon he will get 0-65% or he won’t? I assume the former.
20 Mike S The way I am typing it really is too early for me. Sorry to change your name like that.
7.”In response to a query: I believe the average MP stay is about 10 years. But it’s not a bell curve - the marginals throw people in and out all the time, while Ian Wright in Hartlepool can look forward to being Father of the House in 30 years or so with complete confidence if he wants. ”
Thanks (I was the only who asked that question). So you’ll end up aboive average.
Future Father of the House: Chris Bryant has a strong chance. He’s only a year older than Ian Wright and he has been elected in 2001.
Then don’t under-estimate the chances of Skinner and Dunwoody to be still around……………….
22.”He’s only a year older than Ian Wright ”
ok, forget this! I looked at the year of birth of the football player and not to the one of the MP
23 - HA HA
23. That’s very funny. Don’t know which of the two of them is worse though.
23 - Ha, Ha, thanks Andrea! That’s the first thing that’s cheered me up since the horrors of yesterday!
re 20. The terminology that is used in betting is sometimes confusing because I should say I am betting against when I am saying Cameron will get below 66%.
PaddyPower have re-opened their market and the price is now 5-2.
26. This is shocking Max. Who’s this guy taking over as chief exec? Just out of uni I heard. Makes David Cameron look like a pensioner.
24/25/26. I’m starting to sound like pb.com buffoon……….
Finally some MPs are starting to understand what are the issues that really matter:
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=28979&SESSION=875
27. Paddy Power a scaredy (right spelling??) cats it seems. They cut prices without taking any money as they don’t have faith in their opinions. They did the same when I put up the 6-4 for 66-80% on attheraces.
28 - He’s the son of the owner but it seems he’s only their on a temporary basis. I’m not too concerned, at the end of the day theirs been sceptisism about Romanov from day one (that wouldn’t have happened if he wasn’t from Eastern Europe) but he’s done everything he said he would. Just have to wait and see I’m afraid.
It was a bit of a traumatic day all round yesterday. Feel quite sorry for McLetchie and as I said there is little or no criticism from other MSP’s none of whom seem to want to risk similar scrutiny. It’s said that the papers are trying to get details on other MSP’s so it’ll be interesting to see what happens.
I’m not sure yet what it means for us. We’re probably more reliant on other Scottish parties on who the UK leader is as we are an avowedly Unionist party. Fortunately we have a few decent MSP’s who are certainly no worse than the other party leaders. I doubt it will do much lasting harm to the party come 2007 where a lot will depend on how the UK leader is getting on.
31. I wouldn’t have thought it would make a big difference to our prospects in Scotland. Hardly Profumo is it.
It’s going to be very interesting when all the other expenses claims come out because I’m sure it’s not just McLetchie.
To keep things away from this very tired dull chat about the Tory leadership contest, please note that the CSU head Stoiber will not join the Merkel cabinet
33 - Sounds like the coalition’s falling apart before it even starts. Any spread bets on when the next elections will be in Germany?
32 - Well there isn’t a great deal to lose! It’s not a bad job as you have pretty low expectations and the core 15-16% of the vote we have doesn’t have anywhere else to go. The main criticism of DM (in policy terms) was he wasn’t bold enough. It does seem likely that whoever leads the party will go into the next election promising to reduce income tax which will at least differentiate us from the other parties.
34. Lennon, did you follow Zanzibar’s elections?
35.”the core 15-16% of the vote we have doesn’t have anywhere else to go”
maybe they could go to “Operation Christian Vote”!
(they got lots of tory voters in Na h-Eileanan an Iar last may)
37 - I’m not sure if those would all be Tory votes. OCV would do well in the Western Isles because it is far more religious than the rest of the country. The Free Church (as opposed to the more mainstream Protestant church, the Church of Scotland) is still quite powerful on the Islands. I always remember that when I visited Stornoway (on the Isle of Lewis) all the swings in the park were chained up on Sundays so kids couldn’t play on them!
36 - Was reading about it on the bbc website this morning actually. Still waiting to see what the Electoral Commission declare the result to be, but sounds like it will be given to the CCM and then disputed by the CUF (Opposition) again.
38. They probably got a couple of Labourites too, but considering the big fall of Tory vote (they lost the doposit), I think that the majority of their vote came from the tories.
39. the opposition is apparently claiming to have won. According to rumours and numbers seen by foreign observers the result could be 50.63 % for CUF and 49.27% for CCM.
40 - I think the fact our candidate lived in Edinburgh was more of a factor! It’s a seat we have historically done very badly in even back in the days when the Unionist party polled over 50% of the popular vote.
42. was Labour defeat expected? When the results was declared, SkyNews’ journalists seemed surprised, becuase they thought Calum McDonald was a popular MP. But he got a big swing against in 2001 too, so I wasn’t so surprised.
43 - I wasn’t surprised.
43 - I can’t speak for the SNP but what was being said in the run-up to the election didn’t suggest such a good win there for the Nats. Labour also held it in 2003 and unlike other constituencies it had remained unaltered. There could have been local issues but it’s not somewhere I no very much about.
44. David, what result surprised you the most?
45. Thanks Max. The thing about SNP is that they were able to perform well against Labour (with Libdems style swings) in some seats (Moray and Westewrn Isles), but not in others (Dundee East and Ochil).
Am I right in thinking the first 2 seats are rural/not urban, whilst the other 2 are urban areas?
46 - Can’t speak for David, but for me Manchester Withington came from nowhere.
46 - The only one that I really didn’t see coming was Manchester Withington
45 - Ochil and South Perthshire’s not really urban
47 - Snap :-p
47. Keith Bradley hasn’t recovered from his loss yet (it’s all Karen Bradley’s fault!).
Does anyone know what were Labour reactions at Hornsey count? Did Barbara Roche expect to lose?
I thought that Oona King would have survived in the end.
49. According to The Gurdian it’s “mostly urban”. Ok, they aren’t very accurate (according to them Labour won Colne Valley in 1983!).
Back to Scottish results, are the Libdems a bit disappointed not to have got Aberdeen South too? I think it would have fallen with an uniform swing.
Slightly O/T, but I love the Hebrides. Last April I went to the Isle of Harris to do a travel piece, and I visited a Gaelic-speaking church on Sunday evening for the service.
They have this extraordinary and ancient tradition of a capella singing, where the priest starts intoning some Gaelic liturgy, then the congregation joins in with their own impromptu harmonies, humming and ululating. I sat there stunned. It was like Arab music mixed with whale song, and all this with the grey Hebridean sea pounding against the cliffs just outside the wooden church.
I’ve been all over the world in my job, yet that was one of the most spellbindingly foreign experiences of my life, right here in the UK.
Er, I did say this was a little O/T.
50 - Hornsey was looking very bad before the election, the expectation was that Oona would squeeze in, but people didn’t factor in the chance of Tories voting tactically for Respect to get Labour out. Never underestimate how much the other side hates you.
53 - Indeed - “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”. Seemingly truer in politics than almost anything else…
Re Tory leadership - it would be useful to have another proper poll of Tory members. The ICM poll over the weekend had a sample of 163 (after excluding don’t knows) - this is so small that not a lot of reliance can be put on it.
The last proper poll of members with a decent sample was the YouGov poll published on the morning of the second MPs ballot. Does anyone know if YouGov are going to do a similar poll again soon?
53. Newspapers reported that Labour activists at the Bethnal Green’s count were in disbelief shaking their heads and repeating “I couldn’t believe it”.
I read that Red Ken was disappointed for Brent East.
Barabara Roche seemed a good MP. I like Lynn Featherstone too.
56 - I thought Oona MIGHT make it but much as I loathe him my money was on George. To be honest much as I dislike her and dislike tactical voting if I’d been living in Bethnal Green I’d have voted for Ms King.
57. I would have voted for the Greens “cleaning my hands” and letting the others to decide.
At least GG gave us one of his performances on election night. Btw, Jeremy Paxton’s question to Gal*oway was a really stupid question.
Was Hornsey’s declaration showed live? If so, I missed it.
48 etc - Withington was surprising, but the one that least fitted the pattern of the night was Solihull.
51 - on Aberdeen South clearly anyone is bound to be disappointed not to get a seat they would have got on a uniform swing. It seems to fit in with the “under the radar” theme - Anne Begg was unlikely to underestimate the threat having been run close twice before. Some of the theme for the Lib Dems was missing the heavily hyped ones (decapitation seats and hardy perennials like Oldham and Wells) quite often but picking up those where incumbants thought “could be tricky but we should be okay” like Hornsey or where the MP should really have had an inkling but was just rather complacent (step forward Tim Collins).
I don’t think there was much surprise about George Galloway winning Bethnal Green (I initially thought Oona King would hold on, but from about 8 weeks before polling day, it became inreasingly clear that she wouldn’t).
Some Muslim Conservative voters from 2001 may well have switched to Galloway, but I expect quite a lot of white Conservative voters also switched to King to keep out Galloway.
One friend of mine who was present at the count said it was striking how racially polareised the result was. Majority Muslim wards voted overwhelmingly for Galloway; majority non-Muslim wards voted overwhelmingly against him.
Re: 9 - I’m not so certain, David. The previous MORI poll was conducted during our Conference, emphasising that all publicity IS good publicity when you are the third party and put us at 25%. We’ve been virtually silent since then while the Tories have had almost wall-to-wall coverage and yet we are STILL over 20% which is pleasing. Labour’s upturn, mirrored to some degree by the local by-election results, continues and they are in a very strong position still holding a good 6-point lead.
Cameron (assuming it is he who wins the ballot) will have to start from 33-34% - a slip back over the winter to 30% won’t look good especially if the LDs move back toward 23-25%. I’d prefer to let the polls settle until January-February and then see where we are.
60 - I can’t see a fall back to 30. I am certainly not trying to hype the Tory position in any way. But I think we will probably keep above 32 from now on. I think the swing voter will see DC as a more viable PM than Charles Kennedy which I think will help our position against yours.
[60] Certainly echo that stodge- I did wonder if we were going to be pushed back into the low teens with the spotlight all on the Tories, staying above 20% is a bit of a result.
As far as Scotland is concerned (and how I miss it…) The Conservaives have got to be feeling pretty bad about Macletchie- the fact is though, that they are really stuck- they still have massive negative perception ratings - and the sleeper result of the night was not Withington or Solihull, it was the Lib Dems coming from 4th to Second in the Scotish vote. yes, of course it was disappointing not to win Aberdeen South- especially becasue this is broadly the seat that Nicol Stephen holds in the Scottish Parliament. But drill down into overall result and you can see amzinf progress in Edinburgh, Lothian and in Greater Glasgow. Unless the Macletchie replacement can stop the rot in the Tories and the SNP can regroup, it is the Lib Dems will be clear challengers to Labour across vast swathes of Scotland. Roll on 2007!
Re: 61 - David, time will tell on this one and we’re going to have to agree to disagree at this stage. I’m reminded that in 1993 the LDs were polling in the mid-20s and when Blair became leader, we fell back almost 10% into the low teens and recovered to only 16.8% in 1997 which was of course a notch down on 1992.
We are, I think, a stronger and more resilient party now but there may well be a “Cameron effect” in the early months of next year. So much will depend on whether he is seen as something “new” or simply “another Blair”. There is plenty of evidence that the Blair brand is discredited. DC also has to ensure that in trying to secure the swing vote, he doesn’t see elements of the core vote slip away to UKIP.
Perhaps we will have to agree only with the premise that politics will be more interesting in the next three months or so.
62 - I think the main problem in Scotland is that there IS no competition to Labour. But yes I fear for the SNP. You should make some serious holes in them. But since you’ll sell out and form another coalition instead of providing opposition you’ll still hand the opposition role to the SNP.
62. James O, are you in a good mood today?
First you seemed to say to DC’s supporters to calm down a bit their enthusiasm, then you almost declared SNP and tories dead!
63. I can’t see much loss of our core vote to UKIP if Cameron becomes leader. He is it would seem, an ardent euro sceptic and his proposed withdrawal from the EPP would seem to signify this. UKIP are seen as a joke of a party and I would think that some of their voters would have the sense to see that Labour will only further take us further into Europe and it’s only the tories who have a realistic chance of stemming the tide.
re 63. I’ve got this theory that YouGov and the phone pollsters are going to go in different ways in the coming months. I think we’ll see YouGov showing a solid Labour margin while if there is any movement it will be with ICM and Populus.
Thus we will get the reverse of the pattern before the last election when YoUGov tended to have higher Tory figures.
“Unless the Macletchie replacement can stop the rot in the Tories and the SNP can regroup, it is the Lib Dems will be clear challengers to Labour across vast swathes of Scotland. Roll on 2007!”
Yes, the prospect of a centre-left challenge to a centre-left administration in which the challenger is already a junior partner in a contest which will inevitably result in a centre-left coalition will indeed be a thrilling one.
67. why do you think they’ll show those results?
68 - Couldn’t put it better myself
I’m back working on Scottish politics next year.
one good thing will be seeing that awful Rosie Kane lose her seat thank god.
62 - So what happened in Livingston and Cathcart? If the Tories and SNP are in such a mess why did the Lib Dems make so little progress? Compared to the Glasgow South result the Cathcart result was pretty poor. There is no reason to believe that Westminster and Holyrood performances are directly related. The Tories for instance came 4th in 2001 but 3rd in 2003.
New Blunkett revelation by Bloomberg regarding 3rd breach of procedure going …going….gone by tonight?
73. It’s like watching a man commiting suicide.
73 - It’s just awful. I think he’s probably holding on until Tony pushes him since he knows this is the end of his career.
75. maybe there’s a position available on EU. Just to anger the French
70 - how you must be looking forward to the endless frenzy of whether one MSP or another had abused Parliament and the Tax Payers by pinching biros and staples from the stationery cupboard.
75. I hope we don’t put Grayling out again though. I think labour are capable of shooting themselves in the foot here without us having to encourage them how to pull the trigger.
77 - Rab McNeil in the Scotsman used to keep me going. It was the only amusing thing every week. Though this week’s private eye reminded me that however bad Holyrood is it’s not as laughable as the goings on in Cardiff Bay
77 - It could well happen. If it doew we can just about guarantee a collapse in turnout in 2007. You can also guarantee that should a right-wing newspaper get anything on a member of the executive the Sunday Herald will be the first to start squealing about ‘anti-Scottish’ journalists trying to undermine devolution.
Why do you expect Yougov to be relatively more favourable to Labour, Mike?
78. Blunkett said he won’t resign and that he hasn’t done anything wrong.
Some criticism is emerging from Labour ranks too (albeit from the Left). Ian Gibson (btw, BBC described him a “senior MP”. Are MPs from 1997’s intake already “senior backbenchers”?) said: “”If it was me I would feel so compromised I wouldn’t want to stay - I’d admit I’d made a mistake”
82 - I think senior in this case refers to his age. But he is a Trot so I’d hardly think he was a typical MP.
80 - I heard on the radio last night that Paul Hutcheon (note to the uninitiated - he was the Sunday Herald journalist behind the McLetchie reporting) says that this isn’t over yet by a long shot…have yet to find out what he meant by that.
83. Newspapers sometimes calls Marshall Andrews a “senior backbencher” too.
what does a “Trot” mean? I thought it was how horses could “walk”.
Great article by the infamous Wat Tyler on the Tax and Spend issues which should help Davis nudge past the 1/3 support barrier that is being quoted.
http://daviddavisleader.blogspot.com/
I always had the impression that Yougov were more favourable to the Tories, if only in so far as they didn’t tend to overestimate the Labour vote.
85 - Trotskyite
[84] Yep- there are a number of others on the same gig apparantly..
[63]Maybe [65] Yes- but the Tories in Scotland- Max aside- are an order of magnitude weaker than in England. I may be wrong to dismiss the SNP so completely, but their vote fell sharply in 2005, and the Lib Dems grew sharply. [68] [72] The whole point is that the structure of Scottish politics is changing- it is not merely the “replacement of one Centre-Left party with another”.
88. Ok. I specified @82 he was from the Left of the party.
Gibson has already tabled an Early Day Motion to express his concerns toward the Education White Paper.
86 - You don’t really believe that that article will have any effect on the contest whatsoever do you?!!??!!
89 - That still fails to answer the lack of progress in either by-election. And the only poll done since the election shows little progress either.
If I was Blair I would be rather more concerned about the opinions on the BBC website. The Beeb are not known for being too open to anti-Nulab opinions but on Blunkett there is a massive majority against him. Sleaze is a word that is beginning to stick.
Out by Guy Fakes night? Guido will take the credit, I bet.
52. Sean, that form of Gaelic singing of the psalms is called ‘lining out’ or ‘line singing’, and is pretty much unique to Scottish Presbyterianism (in the modern world). It really is something to behold: http://www.gaelicpsalmsinging.com/audio/mp3s/Kilmarnock.mp3
A black professor of music at Yale, Willie Ruff, contends that American gospel music (and by extension the blues, jazz, rock and roll etc.) has its roots not in black African song, but in the lining out that black slaves would have taken part in with their Scots owners in the South, particularly the Carolinas.
http://www.willieruff.com/linesinging.html
OT indeed, but I am glad you brought it up.
Why do you dislike Oona David? she strikes me as unusually pleasant for someone in such a competitive job.
32 woody. I would have thought fiddling your expenses was worse than playing with a prostitute (though at the time probably not).
Max
Lib Dems started behind the SNP in both cases. Glasgow South was a better starting point but wasn´t quite the same constituency and the independent campaign muddied the waters.
I think that the party that did worst in these by-elections was the SNP. Indeed if you look back at some of the results they had in the past in Livingston and compare it to this one I should say you MUST come to the conclusion that the SNP had a disappointing result.
94 -Interesting musicology point, Chrisco, Personally I think there is an important Spanish influence int he development of the harmonic structures typical of black america music. Sketches of Spain makes the point…
95 - Roger it’s probably just that I saw her documentary in 1997 when she won and I found her just soo irritating. I can’t stand her voice and she has the most insincere air of any politician.
But I haven’t had the pleasure of meeting or speaking to her so I feel slightly guilty about my irrational dislike. Unlike my dislike of the venerable Helen which is entirely justified
94. Wow, that’s a particularly fine example you linked to, there. Takes me right back to that little church by the Minch…
I find this ‘line singing’ overpowering, personally, but that could be the protestant Celt in me. I also agree that much of US gospel/blues (and all that came after) must have roots in vernacular Scots-Irish music - such as this.
Hm. Feel a slightly pretentious Guardian piece coming on…
95. That’s what I said Roger. What he did was hardly Profumo.
Sad day for any racing followers here as Best Mate has just died at Exeter. RIP.
[96] Yes- despite a couple of gains, the general SNP trend was dreadful.
[52] [94] It is beautiful, and if you like Runrig, An Ubhal as Airde uses the same sounds- (to the great annoyance of the Leòdhaisach faithful)
Oona King was my MP, she was the most nauseating New Labour propagandist I have yet encountered, and though I would have voted LD whatever I’m very pleased she lost… partly because I had money on it I admit.
Heh heh. I’ve just started a sweepstake at work on how long Blunkett’s got. The latest bet so far is Saturday.
103 -
Is it being measured in hours rather than days then?
BBC have just rang saying I can be in the audience of question time on Thursday. Should be fun.
96. Cathcart’s result was disappointing for them, but the Livingston’s performance wasn’t disappointing.
Ah yeah, I forget that the Lidbems are always the winners anyway
104 - Well the person who bet tomorrow morning is probably feeling quote good. That’s only because no-one has gone for tonight.
They’ve found a THIRD breach of the ministerial code today about a paid charity job! I foolishly went for Friday afternoon (thinking they’d sack him at 6pm friday to give the weekend to cool it all off).
19:
What has the level of University places on whether grammar schools should be brought back?? Don’t see the link.
And why is it a terrible policy? I thank my lucky stars I was brought up in Warwickshire and could go to a grammar school after 11+ time. Or are you in favour of bog standard comprehensives? We need many types of different schools, er, for the many types of kids we have.
The terrible policy is surely the other one you mention - sending half our kids to University when many of them drop out, or have to do such lowly regarded courses that they never earn enough to pay back their debt. Letting kids in to do Theme Park Studies at the university of South West Rutland with 2 grade Es is a joke.
96 - The independent only polled 800 odd votes. If the Lib Dems progress was to be sustained in a Holyrood contest surely you would have expected better than 4th in Cathcart?
My own feeling is that little will change in 2007. Quite a few interesting constituency battles but most gains and losses will be offset by gains or losses on the list. The SNP should at least pick up 2-3 seats from the seeming implosion of the SSP.
107.”They’ve found a THIRD breach of the ministerial code ”
I think I missed the second breach!
108 - But they’d have an amusing MP
111 More MPs of that sort are needed
This Blunkett thing is messier even than meets the eye, when you think about it. He joined DNA Biosciences two weeks before the election, but he surely knew there was a very strong chance he was going to go back into government, and DNA Biosciences probably knew that as well. Blunkett wanted shares in the company, presumably on the basis of information he received when he was at the Home Office, but to do that you had to be appointed to the board. He gets appointed to the board, gets his shares, and resigns two weeks later.
What did DNA B get out of all this other than his two-week membership of the board? (Unless he lied to them and told them he didn’t think he’d get back into government).
105 Woody. Wear a carnation so we know who we’re looking for!
I would agree that Blunkett would under normal circumstances be out by Saturday but unfortunately the posturing by Mr Greyling (Who I think also is calling for the resignation of Cherie Blair as Tony Blairs wife) is likely to keep him in office indefinately. I now doubt he’ll go.
110 - There’s more breaches than in the walls of a captured town. First was the directorship outside the allowed time, second was holding the shares while in the cabinet, third is a paid position with an international charity. That is BEFORE any really dodgy stuff that Chris is suggesting in post 113.
If he doesn’t resign he’s harming the credibility of the government. I think if he doesn’t resign Tony will have to push him or he’s going to start looking ridiculous.
All I can say is well done Chris Grayling. We were all having a go yesterday morning saying he was going to look silly asking for a resignation he can’t get… well maybe he was right and we were wrong.
113.”What did DNA B get out of all this other than his two-week membership of the board? ”
The Siddiqis had approached Mr Blunkett to join the company as a non-executive director because they hoped that such a high profile politician’s name on the company notepaper would impress their clients. Mr Blunkett’s experience of fathering a son by a married woman made him an ideal candidate for a directorship.
(from The Times)
115. I’m not suggesting that there definitely was anything really dodgy going on, but if there wasn’t at least on the face of it he has acted very disreputably: he flouted the ministerial code of conduct, and simultaneously shafted the DNA company!
Hardly the actions of someone I would want in the cabinet.
86 Jules Its not so great when you look carefully. Wat is rowing back for Davis. He claims DD’s tax plan is a rule and not effected by the reality that might exist when a Tory government takes over.
That is not what David Davis said at all. He was very specific with clear numerical targets. I quote the BBC site, Mr Davis vowed to tear up the Tories’ past “timid” tax policies as he unveiled plans for a cut of £1,200 a year for the average family. .
Mr Davis wants £38bn a year tax cuts ……..
The David Davis site is less specific than this public statement. (Indeed, it seems a lot less specific in some respects than the Cameron site despite the DD supporters mumbling on about policy pronouncements).
There is no suggestion on the DD site that he is talking about a rule. It emphasises a low tax economy and how important that is. There is no way specified to balance the public spending he claims will not be ‘slashed’ and the very specific tax cuts he has promised.
I wonder why he has not got his detailed commitment to tax and spending or the promise of more grammar schools on his site?
If these were last minute additions and the webmaster has not caught up, does it suggest that DD is making up policy on the hoof?
Or it is not on the website on purpose? But why would he not put what he sees as a vote winning commitment on his site?
The DD site is, confusingly, not in his name:
http://www.modernconservatives.com/downloads.php
115. Thanks, I’ve mixed the first 2 together.
Max, Andrea
The SNP scored 31.6 in Livingston in 2003 (reference below). So 32.6& in 2005 does not seem a great result. Throughout the 1990s they were polling 26-27%.
John Curtice (reference below) sid the ship is afloat but the propellor is broken.
I agree that the they will probably benefit from the SSO implosion
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4296146.stm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Livingston_%28Scottish_Parliament_constituency%29
121. British Parliament elections and Scottish Parliament elections are different kind of elections. I wouldn’t compare them so easily.
Compared the previous election, Livingston result for SNP was decent. I think many parties would welcome a 9% swing (and it wasn’t even a real mid-term election)!
102 - Always amazed by Lib Dems who hate Oona King and people like her. Oona’s touchy-feely, pro-pr, pro-europe, anti-tribal politics, copy of the guardian on the door mat, politics seem as good as a Lib Dem could possibly want from a Labour MP.
Always amazed that so many Lib Dems prefered the Gorgeous one.
121 - I’m not arguing that the SNP did well. Livingston has also had it’s boundaries changed since 2003 so you’re not comparing like with like. Unless of course you’re willing to compare Cathcart to Glasgow South which would mean a very poor result for the Lib’s in the by-election.
My point is that it is entirely possible that people will vote differently in a Westminster and Holyrood election and that a good result in one doesn’t lead to a good result in another. This is particularly true of the SNP vote that is markedly higher at Holyrood than Westminster.
118. There was someone from the DNA testing company on early morning TV saying that ‘any publicity is good publicity’, that Blunkett had raised the profile of their ‘brand’ and that they still planned to use his name in their IPO prospectus
117 Thanks Fergus.
123. “Oona’s touchy-feely, pro-pr, pro-europe, anti-tribal politics, copy of the guardian on the door mat, politics seem as good as a Lib Dem could possibly want from a Labour MP”
Maybe they feel she (and the others like her) could invade their territory. They wouldn’t have this problem with Gorgeous George
123 - “Always amazed that so many Lib Dems prefered the Gorgeous one.”
I don’t, personally. But surely your amazement is rhetorical and you are only pretending to ignore the Iraqiphant in the room?
122. 124
I´m edging to agreement with Max at least. My point is that if you are clearly second in both contests you have a good chance of squeezing votes from other parties. If you are second in one and not the other it is harder. And much harder if you are second in the “wrong” contest.
I agree of course that the independent got few votes - but he got a disproportionate amount of publicity.
128. you’re a Tabman’s follower. You’re part of a special wing of the party
OT. Is the Pandora’s column in The Independent a satyric column?
From today’s edition:
Tony Blair’s relationship with his “awkward squad” of left-wing MPs could soon become a matter for the libel courts.
The Old Labour MP Alan Simpson is speaking to lawyers, after a reputable newspaper mistakenly described him as one of Blair’s “ministers”.
According to a legal opinion from Bob Marshall-Andrews - a fellow MP and QC - the “defamatory” suggestion that Simpson is loyal to Blair is worth “six or possibly seven figures” in damages.
“In addition to the crude allegation itself, there are plain innuendos that you have proclivities for self abasement, badger watching, and high-level aerial bombardment,” he writes.
“In view of the seriousness of the matter and the distress which it has caused, I am content to act for you on a conditional fee basis.”
Let battle commence!
Is it a joke, right?
WRT, Blunkett, Guido’s joined up the dots on his blog.
130 - That would be the funniest thing ever. I assume it is a joke.
129. I remember some Libdem posters claiming great chances for them and that they could pass SNP. Those things didn’t happen, but now the winners are the Libdesm and the loser is SNP. Maybe Tony could hire some of them as spin doctors!
Your point about squeezing is right if other parties voters want to throw Labour out. Maybe they weren’t so interested to throw Lab out (the government hadn’t made anything yet since the last time they voted) .
132. David, I think it’s a joke too. I was a bit worried, because the people involved would be really able to do that.
Night guys, see you tomorrow for more Blunkettgate
128 - Not really ,I was always under the impression that Lib Dems self-identified as people who wanted to ‘reshape british politics’ not as a protest party.
129 - Pat Lally did manage to get an amazing amount of publicity. I was astonished he got so few votes. The other thing Cathcart did was re-emphasise just how recilient the Labour votw in West-central Scotland is. If you look at the interesting seats in 2007 it’s hard to find any on the West Coast and only one in the whole of Glasgow.
What may be interesting is to see how much devolved elections diverge or otherwise from UK contests over time. I always think it’s strange that in Canada the fortunes of the provincial parties seem largely independent of Federal politics. Even when the PC’s were annihalated Federally they still seemed to do OK at provincial level.
135. “Night guys”
Aren’t you in the middle of the afternoon?
If anyone told the world that any genuine socialist had Tony Blair’s full backing, I guess it would be defamatory - although I guess still further that there would be a get-out that said Blair is mad as a hatter and no one believes anything he says these days anyway, so it is not as defamatory as would be a suggestion that the socialist would back Tony Blair.
What a crazy mixed bag of a postings - surely this site needs a threading capability pdq?
I reckon that Brussels must now be awaiting their first blind commissioner - that is what Tony B does with the damaged goods that he has to pay off to keep quiet isn’t it?
As for Lib Dem failures/surprises, I agree with James O up above - both Tories and Labour dug in franticaslly in certain obviously-targeted seats and were complacent elsewhere. Keith Bradley top of the list of this last lot:Withington Labour helpers went off to help Phil Woolas in Oldham - I wouldn’t be surprised if Aberdeen South also attracted a number of travellers.
My only concerns about Lib Dem prospects in Scotland nowadays is how they can make gains at Labour’s expense when they are in government with them. Do they say that everything good in the government is all their ideas and efforts or do they knock those areas where they say Labour is blocking their initiatives? I cannot see the present coalition lasting past the next Holyrood election.
138 - This is England, we go to bed at about 7 pm (just after Hollyoaks).
136 - Well, I don’t think many Lib Dems have much time for Galloway at all, as it happens. But it’s a bit disingenuous to claim you can’t think of any reason why someone would dislike Oona King, without mentioning the war!
I know Blunkett’s not gone yet, but any thoughts on his (likely) replacement? Benn? Miliband? Kelly? Desmond Browne? Hodge or Hoon (God forbid)? John Hutton? John Denham? Mike O’Brien?
140 - it’s pretty dark now. All the signs of winter are here. The clocks have gone back, the temperature’s dropping and David Blunkett is in trouble.
142 - Quite possibly the best programme to ever appear on British TV. What’s going to become of Manndy and Tony!
142/144. It’s dark here too (but it’s 5.30 PM) and it’s almost raining too.
145.”What’s going to become of Manndy and Tony!”
Tony is trying to solve the mess caused by DB and Mandy is teaching “British values” to his newly British boyfriend.
143 - either Benn or Browne, I reckon.
139 - I thought I was the only person ouside of Canada to think about canadian provincial politics! One of the clues is the loose link between federal and provincial parties. Voting for Saskatchewan Liberals when they were the original Thatcherite party did not imply support for the federal party (and vice versa).
John Denham would be my choice.
143. Maybe Milburn will come back for his 100th times just to resign in January to spend more times with his family.
147. If Benn goes to W&P, who will go to Interantional Development?
150 - The magnificent return to Cabinet of Clare Short?
No, I didn’t think so either…
148 - I’ve got family out in Canada so I’ve always taken a bit of an interest. I think you’re right re. the loose links between the parties. The BC Liberals seem to have little to do withe Federal Liberals and Reform/Canadian Alliance have never been able to breakthrough provincially despite having loads of MP’s in the area. All very confusing!
Again it might be interesting in post-devolution Britain to see a loosening of the ties between ‘devolved’ and ‘federal’ parties.
151. I doubt they want her back and I doubt she would come back (she wouldn’t be allowed to talk bad about Blair!).
What about Yvette Cooper being promoted to the Cabinet if Benn moves to Home Affairs? It would please Gordon.
Benn’s move to HA could be very interesting. Some have suggested him as leadership material, being Home Affairs Secreatry would certainly rise his profile.
152 - I’m not sure there’s any remaining link at all between the BC Liberals and the federal party. Presumably some shared history, hence the name, but IIRC the BC Liberals and Quebec Liberals aren’t actually part of the national party.
Re. 150, John Denham (unless he goes straight in as Blunkett’s replacement). Apart from the fact that he was very much in line for promotion to the Cabinet in 03 (and would almost certainly have made the Cabinet in the reshuffle of that year had he not resigned over the Iraq war), he’s now proving a very effective Chairman of the Home Affairs Select Committee, a constructive critic of the government, and that will never do.
I like him - his speech to the Guardian fringe meeting at Conference last year was excellent.
Or Desmond Browne could go to ID, and then his place could be taken by Mike O’Brien, Yvette Cooper or (God help us) Beverley Hughes. She was, after all, tipped for the Cabinet before her resignation.
121- Blue2win- I’ve given up regular posting here, but I just wanted to correct your assertion that DD’s “Growth Rule” is “not a rule at all”.
What he actually says on his website is:
“A Conservative Government led by David Davis would introduce a new ‘growth rule’, ensuring that public spending increases by one per cent less than the trend rate of growth in the economy.”
Sounds like a rule to me. And as you may know, its basis is spelled out in much more detail at http://www.reform.co.uk/filestore/pdf/The%20Growth%20Rule.pdf .
So there we are.
Pip pip.
Oona King not tribal? If she really supported all the things LDs like then presumably she would be one if this were the case.
As far as PR goes like most Labour supporters I watch what they do not what they say. On which occassions have these people (and we have one famous example on this site) actually tried to make the government honour its repeated promises to act on electoral reform.
That’s why I’m delighted she lost.
143-Blunkett & Mandelson to swop jobs to broaden their experience & to maintain Blair ethos of promoting reject cabinet ministers.
156 Well that is interesting Wat, as the DD site has a poli