How punters rated Davis’s Paxman ordeal
November 11th, 2005-
The challenger stumbles a bit after being called a “shit”
Each new event in the seemingly never-ending saga that is the Tory leadership contest is having a big impact on the betting - as shown in the above chart on the implied probability of Davis winning based on best betting prices.
Last night David Davis appeared on BBC 2’s Newsnight to be interviewed by the legendary Jeremy Paxman - still seen as the most formidable inquisitor on UK television. And as the chart above shows the verdict of some punters was to sell. The Davis price eased out while the Cameron price tightened.
As the Telegraph reports “Paxman taunted Mr Davis with fellow Tory MPs’ descriptions of him as a “thug, bully, an adventurer, disloyal, congenitally treacherous and winner of the Whips’ Office shit of the year award“. Mr Davis, who laughed off his declaration that he preferred blondes to brunettes, disputed “every one” of the descriptions.”
It should be said that David Cameron will be going on the programme next week although it has taken much longer for his team to finally agree that their man should go on.
Is their a bit of gamesmanship going on here here? When the 39 year old does face Paxman many more Tory members are likely to have returned their postal ballots and the potential negative impact will be less.
On last night’s programme Davis had to cope with fierce probing from Paxman on the effect of the £38bn on tax cuts that he has flagged up and the reaction of punters was marked. In next week’s appearance Cameron is going to get questioned very deeply on his lack of detailed policy commitments - and no doubt Paxman will really turn the screw as well.
Is the best betting strategy to sell Cameron just before next week’s programme and pick him up cheaper after it is all over?
Watch the Davis interview here.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
From the other thread:
The Paxo/DD interview showed quite clearly why it was an error of political judgement to have hard numbers attached to leadership election policy. Its impossible to defend those numbers up to ten years in advance (the next parliament could end in 2015).
The hectoring won DD some sympathy , but he didn’t build on it at all.
Head lining 38 Billion in tax reduction looks like a promise, not a strategy. Sad pickle DD got himself into. The stuttering delivery emphasised the difficulty in defending those proposals.
Paxo didn’t even have to get into what hospituls ‘n skools he would have to close to find the billions.
DD seemed to admit that he was prepared to pull out of the EU. He rowed back but it didn’t look assured.
The Home Office is his brief so the 90 day issue should have been more robustly handled, more in the style of Ken Clarke on This Week. DD wasn’t as well prepared as for QT, falling into the Zimbabwe trap on refugees, and was less than clear on the HR Convention and its operation.
DD’s body language was poor, aggressively leaning forward and then pushing himself back into the chair as far away from Paxo as he could. Paxo scented blood. Viewers scented uncertainty?
DD really should have anticipated the opening gambit about his nasty reputation with some MP’s (its well documented afterall), but he had no answer.
A brave but not an impressive performance. DD thought he would look tough and assured taking on the old badger. Can Cameron do better?
How will Paxo start the DC interview? If its drugs then Paxo is below par (and boring. Will it be: why are you a traitor to the defenceless citizens of this country?
What’s with all this new Paxo starey-eyed posturing - very odd!
1 - My response from the other thread - I expect drugs - personal use & policy, inexperience, being Michael Howard’s policy man at last election and where that went wrong, being Norman Lamont’s policy man, lack of declared policies now, Blair-lite, privledged background etc.
But he is safe, as the majority of votes will be in by this time next week, and he is clearly ahead by some margin.
If he “opens with drugs” he will be below par, but opening with gratuitous insults about the personal views of some political enemies is him on top form?
Paxo asked if DD was a Shit?
Pot Kettle Black anyone?
As most respondents know I am not a supporter of David Davis, but once again the BBC manages to show its bias by a disgraceful interview. I am incensed that we have to continue to pay for this socialist mouthpiece.
Come on Nuala. 6. Paxman was repeating to Davis what fellow MPs are saying about him. He’s got a terrible reputation as a bully and a thug and as I was saying here weeks ago this would destroy. Nobody actually “likes” David Favis. They may respect him or are scared of him - but LIKE is a word that is never used.
I have only started visiting to comment in the last few days.
Mike thanks for all the fun and interest this provides.
I stick to my view of last night. Davies looked terrible. He was sweating profusely and I think he was just awful under fire.
The Paxo test is the ultimate one and the ground was horrible for him, but he kept on clearly making it up on the hoof, jambling his words and had no answer at all to the central charge that he is a complete SHXT.
I think the bubble has burst and we will now see lots of evidence of solidifying in Cameron’s numbers.
6 - Does that mean we can count you among the ranks of the Cameroons then, Nuala?
Just checking to see if SHIT gets held up by the spam-trap.
That’s good. We can now also get PENIStone through.
More important is what Davis said. He was all over the place on tax cuts - changed his position about 3 or 4 times during intense questioning. He’ll be ripped to pieces if he wins (extremely unlikely I know).
To be honest Paxman was only saying what a hell of a lot of people think of David Davis. While many people wanted to “stop Ken Clarke” due to his EU views there has always been a concerted portion of the party who despite his politics being very close to their own have wanted “Anyone but David Davis”. His personal tactics are dubious and unpleasant and Paxo was only doing what a good journalist should.
He will perform a similar character assasination next week but I think DC will probably perform better. But even if he doesn’t it won’t matter as anyone watching with a ballot will have almost certainly already voted (if they are going to)
Resisting the temptation to see what else can be got through - though I note Tory was never censored…
The generally accepted wisdom is that most tory members would have voted by now - but where has this wisdom come from?
Have there been any figures released?
I know that if I was voting in the contest I wouldn’t send my vote off till quite late in the day - after all, this is about deciding who could win the next general election, so why the rush?
Because postal ballots are easier to remember to fill in if you do it by return of post.
14. Andrew Neil said on This Week that he had heard that 1/3 of members had already voted but I don’t know what his source was for this information.
Assuming an 80% turnout like last time, this would be approx 40% of the votes. Also it would only include votes which had arrived by Thursday - ie were sent before last post on Wednesday evening. Many more will have been sent between then and now.
Davies has a lot of form.
If you think about it all 4 leaders since Major distrusted him and fell out with him. This provides some substance to what he is really like. Just so good that Paxo exposed it.
Are there any more reliable Tory polls dues this weekend?
EU Serf at 5: >Paxo asked if DD was a Shit?
Pot Kettle Black anyone? <
Indeed. I didn’t watch the programme, but if I had to share a flat with one of them, it certainly wouldn’t be Paxman. “Why do you say you want the Cornflakes? What do you really want? Why are you pretending to want them? And didn’t you eat some last night anyway? And do you have shares in Kelloggs? Huh! Expect me to believe that?”
EU Serf and Nick Palmer, that reminds me of an article Michael Portillo wrote in the Sunday Times a while ago in which he stated the Parliamentary Conservative Party was full of people who the electorate found repellent.
At the time, it did occur to me that with his retirement on May 5th, there was at least one fewer.
Dealing with Paxman is a difficult skill to master. I didn’t see the programme last night, as I went to Stanstead to hear one of the very few tories who can handle him adequately—William Hague.
TB simply refuses to be grilled by Paxman, and is careful to only meet him on his own terms. Who can remember GB having a Paxman toasting?
Is being able to cope with a bruising session from Paxman a necessary skill for a future PM? Think what would have happened in the US if Paxman had had an hour with GWB one week, and another hour with Kerry the following week. Both campaigns adrift…but who would have benefitted?
And yet, and yet…Nobody cornered TB on his Hutton enquiry inconsistencies, and Paxman certainly would have done, if TB had allowed himself to be interviewed. So maybe we do need a Paxman?
Watching Davis last night, I thought ‘How on earth could I have thought that this bloke would make a decent Leader of the Opposition?’ The body language was appalling, and he seemed to be mumbling again.
Paxman missed a trick by not coming up with ‘You can judge a man by the company he keeps. What does your association with Derek Conway, who said he was “so pleased” by the death of Sir James Goldsmith from pancreatic cancer, say about you?’
Then again, in his penchant for bullies, Davis is really no worse than Blair (John Reid, to name but one).
Ref ballot papers - mine not even arrived, rang yesterday to be told not a member but your wife is. She had hers on Monday and returned it Tuesday, I think she is fairly typical. I’m now getting one sent, and am surprised at how easy it was to convince them I was eligible.
I wonder if, when David Davis is Home Secretary in a future Conservative or National government, a few scores may be settled.
22 - Mine got sent to my mum and dad’s house even though I’m pretty sure I told them I’d changed my address when I moved back to Edinburgh. So got it on Wednesday and, unsurprisingly, voted for DC.
18 - Nick I wasn’t suggesting (on another thread) the Sun will back us any time soon just that in all likliehood it would back which ever party it thought most liley to win. The Sun likes the occasional strop (Up yours Delors (a classic!), William Hague as a Parrot, most dangerous man in Britain etc) but it doesn’t seem to impact on who it supports in the long term.
While having the Sun back you is certainly not unhelpful, I think its power is overstated these days. Fewer people read it than did, it isn’t the mouthpiece for any political movement in the way it was during the Thatcher years and its influence on Downing St isn’t as great as it likes to think. I don’t believe the Sun will ever be able to even claim ‘we won it’ again, in these days of declining newspaper sales, interest in politics etc.
“Then again, in his penchant for bullies, Davis is really no worse than Blair (John Reid, to name but one). ”
Reid was strangely calm in his interview on sky after the vote 2 days ago. he wasn’t in his usual attack dog mood.
He was followed by Glenda. my father was next to me and exclaimed “at least we could say she hasn’t had plastic surgery!”
25 - I totally agree. I don’t think any of the papers have nearly as much power as they used to. It would be interesting to compare 1992 readership figures to today.
I missed the programme because I was at a celebration party for Nick Bye here in Torbay with party activists from all over South Devon. I did an unofficial table-by-table poll of VI on the leaderhsip. The results were very interesting, I asked 38 people (about half those present) their preference and only five said Davies, and one don’t know; with all the rest pro-Cameron. But more worrying still for the Davies camp was that while all of the Cameroons had sent in their ballots only two of his had, the rest ‘holding back’ to see how the hustings go. This suggests that even those who prefer DD may be soft voters who may yet change their mind to go with the mood.
I’m sticking with a Cameron two-to-one victory.
could there be a shy DD supporters factor?
22. “and am surprised at how easy it was to convince them I was eligible”.
My father had a rather different experience. In spite of being a former Tory member of the GLC and supporter for four decades he is being denied a vote because his membership elapsed last year; a change of address is also being blamed.
I have a ballot paper and haven’t sent it back yet. Like virtually everyone else with a vote I’m going for Cameron and expect him to win by over 70%.
“If its drugs then Paxo is below par (and boring.”
This depends on how many times he asks the question. It could get very inconvenient for Cameron in a one-to-one interview [remember Howard].
“But he is safe, as the majority of votes will be in by this time next week,”
Yes, but this is then dangerous for the Tory party. What happens if Paxo impales Cameron when he’s already been elected leader by the postal votes? A leader as a liability before he’s even formally won the election?
Just wondered if anyone is yet regretting ditching a former Foreign Sec and a former Chancellor, both with oodles of substance and intelligence, in favour of an unliked former Whip and the architect of the most lightweight general election manifesto in Conservative history?
“Thug, bully, disloyal, congenitally treacherous shit.” I don’t think Davis will be able to sue for defamation. Its fair comment.
I would have simply avoided Paxman. Almost no-one watches Newsnight especially among the mass of floating voters who need to be won over, and so taking part in interviews with Paxman is all downside. The Tories have still not learned to use the media for their own ends the way Labour has in recent years,
Did anyone see the BBC Breakfast interview with Davis this morning? Anyone claiming the BBC are pro-Cameron should ask themselves why this feature only included clips of Tories supporting Davis (and one undecided) whilst the sole Tory they questioned during the Cameron interview attacked him for not having an immigration policy.
Given the evidence to the contrary (ie. that members are rallying behiond Cameron) this hardly paints a fair picture.
Bit of by-election news - he LD’s have won in Dacorum polling around twice that of the Labour candidate in what I believe was previously a Labour held seat.
36 - That should be ‘the’ rather than ‘he’!
27. Latest circulation figures:
Popular:
Sun 3.3m
Mirror 1.7m
Star 0.9m
Middle market:
Mail 2.4m
Express 0.8m
Quality:
Telegraph 0.9m
Times 0.7m
Financial Times 0.4m
Guardian 0.4m
Independent 0.3m
Don’t have figures for 1992 but the total circulation of all the above (11.8m) is down 3% in the last year.
36.Glasgow City-Knightswood Park:
DYER, Michael (known as Mike) Scottish Socialist Party (Abolish Council Tax) 97
GORDON, Katharine (known as Katy) Scottish Liberal Democrat 235
HENDRY, Graeme Andrew Scottish National Party (SNP) 374
MCCOURT, Susan Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party Candidate 80
ROONEY, Paul Scottish Labour Party Candidate Elected 973
WARDROP, Martha Ferguson Scottish Green Party 35
I have just watched the interview and now I realise what the SAS used David Davies for, finding enemy traps.
He may have masochistic tendancies or he may just be wholly inadequate to take on Paxman but I have never witnessed such a one-sided drubbing. He walked into traps on tax, the NHS, Immigration policy, Europe and his colleagues dislike of him.
And why oh why did he agree to do the interview in the Carlton Club?
It looked like what it is, a smoke-filled male-only bastion of ‘old high Tory’ values -the very image we are desperate to leave behind, he even allowed them to position him with a portrait of Baroness Thatcher staring down at him- (during the IDS nightmare at the 2003 conference the press were desperate to get a shot of IDS with an ‘exit’ sign in the background. CCO staffers spent hours and hours choosing press conference locations with no possible angle to provide such a cheap treat.)
It was awful, just awful.
Mr Matlock, I have yet to send back my ballot paper but am erring on the side of David Cameron at present. As you know I would have preferred Sir Malcolm, and then Dr Fox (I admit I have a penchant for fellow Celts, but there were good reasons for thinking each had something to offer the electorate). One of the best things to have come out of this leadership election is that it has finally seen the end of that dreadful Europhile Kenneth Clarke’s influence in the party.
39-Midlothian Council- Loanhead:
Owen Thompson (SNP) 768
George Purcell (Labour) 311
Patrick Kenny (Ind) 268
Elizabeth Veitch (Ind) 217
Ken Brown (Lib Dem) 97
Andrew Hardie (Con) 13
Philip Veitch (Ind) 9
Ian Baxter (Green) 8
SNP gain from Ind.
By-elections in Scotland - We held Murrayfield (in Edinburgh) from the Libs by rather more of a margin than I think we would have hoped but still a pretty big swing to the Libs.
Labour held Knightswood in Glasgow very comfortably and the SNP gained Loanhead in Midlothian.
Rushmoor BC- St Johns Ward_
Libdem 573
COn 496
LAb 99
Libdem gain from Con
“as I went to Stanstead to hear one of the very few tories who can handle him adequately—William Hague”
You obviously missed Paxmans interview with Hague. Hague was hopeless and Paxmans questions were even more personal than those to CK about drink. Blair is the only one who has held his own twice and some would say Howard did OK before the last election. Infact as I saw it Howard wedged himself against the ropes and refused to move and Paxman couldn’t prize him away so he wasn’t much damaged.
I don’t see why politicians should have to be good against this sort of attack any more than the rest of us should know how to deal with a rabid Rotweiller.
(Talking of Rotweillers this arrived on my mobile: A man went to the zoo and there was only one animal, a dog. It was a Shitzu.)
45. Exactly. I for one never watch his interviews, because I find them so unilluminating. If journalists want a model of how to interview politicians they should study the subtle way in which David Dimbleby elicted ‘regime change +’ from Howard.
“Blair is the only one who has held his own ” but who can forget that matter of vital National Importance that Paxman put ‘do you and George Bush pray together?’
Cringeing and unacceptable and no politician deserves or needs to be put through that kind of stuff.
47 - I am not fan of Paxman’s, but that question about prayer was the kind of question I want to see Blair asked. It is essentially a probing question about the true motivation behind a largely unpopular policy (the attack on Iraq) that is totally in bounds - was it partly motivated on Blair’s part by his religious convictions? Its not like asking about whether he’s ever hit his wife or whatever, which would be purely personal.
48. Come off it - ask yourself what sort of answer is such a moronic question likely to elicit? ‘Yes, in fact it is because of our shared Christain zeal to wipe out Islam …’ The point about Paxman is that all politicans are so on their guard as to reveal nothing at all.
Fred is right. Tories must learn to use the media for their own benefit.
When considering whether a politician has the necessary judgement to warrant support, the interviews she or he takes on are quite indicative.
DD was too macho to avoid Paxo. DC should have stuck to what appears to be his original decison to avoid Paxo. What changed his mind? The ‘chicken’ jibes from the DD camp?
45/46. I agree. I almost don’t even rate him as a journalist. I hoped that GG had thrown him something on election night!
Off thread, I have it on decent authority that Kavanagh at the Sun was not wholly happy with the paper’s stories of the last couple of days. The puppet master has been at work.
Personally, I can’t see the point of a Paxman interview. No interviewee is ever going to reveal anything of interest when all they get is sneering and abuse from him.
52 - Excellent. I was wondering why he’d gone mad
I had to laugh at Davis’s response to the treachery question. “I went for a walk with William Hague only this year!”
54. Actually I’ve always hoped people read the Sun just for the photos at page 3!
I’ve e-mailed T Kavanagh expressing my dislike of the week’s political coverage. It’s not the supporting the government I mind it’s the calling 300 MPs traitors
52. Well if he at the remains at the Rag and what you say is true then he’s more spineless than all the politicians he’s lampooned as “spineless” over the years.
Personally I think it’s crap.
44. Where are you getting these from Andrea?
“It’s not the supporting the government I mind it’s the calling 300 MPs traitors”
David. Taking anything the Sun Say’s seriously is the second sign of madness…..
The first sign is reading it.
3.3m are not mad
57. If it wasn’t Kavanagh who instigated the traitors headline then who was it? I think whoever it was should have to sit before all 313 MPs and explain themselves to them. Then let Ian Paisley loose on them
3.3m are not mad
Wanna bet?
59. Chrisco:
http://www.rushmoor.gov.uk/media/adobepdf/k/p/Declarationofresultofpoll_1.pdf
57. But I guess calling 40 MPs traitors, or calling just one a traitor, is ok? I don’t imagine you got quite so excited when the Sun was labelling Labour MPs ‘traitors’ and all other sorts of things in the 80s and 90s?
58. If you want more evidence of my thesis re. the puppet master, have a read of Irwin Stelzer’s retch-inducing hagiography of Blair in the Guardian online today. The puppet master has obviously instructed all his minions to rally round the tattered flag.
65 - I would have done If I’d not been 5 years old.
6 -
the same old Tory tosh about the biased BBC … Paxman is nothing if not equally obnoxious to all parties 
36 - where’s Dacroum?
40 - the SAS do ambushes, Marcus; they don’t walk into them
44 - What were the words Vimto used last night, Andrea, about the Tory Turbocharged revival?
In that case you have gone up in my estimations David!
65 - Just because you don’t mind our entire democracy being attacked by the Press and our PM doesn’t mean you should get upset when people argue about it
69 - OK looks like we’re on the same side on this!
David R, I thought you were informalising into “Dave”. Or was that someone else?
You keep sending the letters David. Maybe they’ll reach someone who can read but I wouldn’t hold your breath
Aye that was me. Must remember for when I need to say something controversial. I think I was bitten back into posting as David R by Vino last night!
70. I am not in the slightest big upset David; as I mentioned yesterday I am just rather bemused by all this fuss. The Sun has been doing this sort of thing for decades, just mainly to the Labour Party and the Lib Dems.
It is a rare occasion that I find myself in agreement with Alastair Campbell, but honestly, “Diddums!”
68 Re Dacorum. Tabman, Hemel Hempstead
75. I was thinking of that Alistair Campbell remark when he was bleating on about the way David Blunketts career had been destroyed by the press.
68 - Tabbers, whilst Paxman may be obnoxious to everyone it doesn’t detract from the institutionalised leftism at the Beeb. How would you like it if you were compalled by law to pay to watch Fox News - thats how paying the liscence fee feels to me!
“The Sun has been doing this sort of thing for decades, just mainly to the Labour Party and the Lib Dems”
…..And how do you think Freddy Starr’s Hampster felt?
Andrea - Hemel is Jack’s neck of the woods
Further evidence for the theory!
Roger - actually the only time I’ve ever emailed Trevor Kavanagh about an article in the Sun he emailed me straight back. While David might not get a reply, I think the emails do go to the man himself.
75. I think the most interesting thing about what the The Sun has done is the desperation of the whole attack. This is wild, ranting stuff that reveals that the puppet master is seriously worried that his pet PM is on the way out.
The Murrayfield result was actually very good Max. The Tory vote share was only down 0.4%, which is remarkable given the atrocious publicity the Scottish Tories have been receiving. I see the UKIP candidate recieved *4* votes in that by-election.
He will definitely get his own e-mails. The staff in a national newspaper newsroom isn’t so vast that senior hacks have lots of underlings answering their e-mails for them. He might not reply but I’m sure he’ll get it
The people who read the Sun do believe it. They are not all mad. How can anyone say that it has less influence than in the past? Does that mean the BBC carries more weight?
More people get their political info from the telly and the Sun than anywhere else. What they say decides the govts we get.
I’m sorry Fred but NO-ONE takes the Sun seriously. This board is descending into madness scrutinizing an article about politicians in the SUN. Anyone remember GOTCHA! celebrating the death of 1400 Argentinian sailors two hundred miles away from the Total Exclusion Zone?
83 - It’s very pleasing (although the other two results in Scotland were quite poor but then again very little effort was put in) and keeps our very good record in council by-elections going - we haven’t lost one in Scotland since 1997.
It was quite worrying because in a couple of previous elections where long standing Edinburgh councillors have stood down (one Lib Dem, one Tory) there were very big swings to the other party. The Libs had made a lot of noise about taking the seat claiming their canvass returns had them within 1% and that they topped the poll in the ward in 2005. Added to the very bad publicity (indeed David McLetchie lives in Murrayfield) we’ve been having it’s a decent result.
I also emailed the news desk of the Sun yesterday - asking for their justifications behind their story line. I have not had a response yet.
I did not address it to Kavanagh, but to the team behind the story. I will keep you informed if I get a response!
Max - someone lives in murrayfield? I suppose its only noiswy on two or three days a year
86 - Much as I would hate to accuse you of exaggerating to make a party political point the total casualties in the Belgrano sinking was just over 300 rather than 1,400. 1,400 is considerably more than the full ship’s complement.
Out of interest Max, I’m aware that some Edinburgh Conservative councillors have massive majorities, yet we didn’t win a single Parliamentary seat on May 5th. Is that because of the way the boundaries are drawn, or is it simply that these councillors have huge personal votes that don’t convert into Conservative votes at general elections.
And also, even the 80’s Sun realised they’d gone overboard (pardon the pun) and pulled the headline from later editions of that day’s paper.
90 - he wasn’t making a party political point, he was slagging off the sun
Max!!! “the other two results in Scotland were quite poor but then again very little effort was put in) and keeps our very good record in council by-elections going”
I see that in one of the “quite poor” results, the Tory candidate canme sixth, with 13 votes. If this is “quite poor”, how low do you have to sink for it to be considered “bad”?
But please, by all means, keep this by-election record going……….
Fair enough.
I guess their argument would have been they were backing Our Boys(tm registered to a rich aussie)
89 - Quite a few people! It’s one of the nicest parts of Edinburgh. It’s not even that noisy anymore seeing as the Rugby team is so awful, we might be a bit better this season though. Mind you the residents weren’t too happy last year when it looked as if Hearts might have been moving to Murrayfield!
83 - Sean funnily enough the UKIP candidate stood for us in 2005. There were a lot of UPIK UKIP posters up but it seems almost no-one did.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=2227442005
Any thoughts on Patricia Hewitts idea of extending GPs opening hours.
94 - It’s in Loanhead (formerly home of Bilston Glen Colliery) so I wouldn’t excpect much of a Conservative vote. Their are a number of places in Scotland where there are almost no Tory voters. Similarly their are places like Ayrshire (I don’t believ the Libs had a single council candidate in South, East or North Ayrshire in 2003)where you wouldn’t find too many Lib Dem voters, or the Borders where you wouldn’t find many Labour voters or Edinburgh where you wouldn’t find many SNP voters. But I think a record of gaining 15 seats in by-elections since 1997 whilst losing none is pretty good and better than that of any other party in Scotland.
91 - A bit of both Sean, you only have to look at the result in the Colinton by-election to see what a personal vote Brian Meek had. The boundaries were pretty bad (the original drafts had been excellent but were later revised) especially in Edinburgh South West. Having said that I would still fully excpect to hold Pentlands at Holyrood despite David McLetchie’s troubles. I also think DC will go down better with middle class Edinburghers in a way that Davis probably wouldn’t and Howard definately didn’t. With a quarter of School kids in the city educated privately his background shouldn’t be too much of a problem either.
Going back to the ‘decline of newspapers’ - speaking as a Fleet Street journo, I think the death of newspapers is much exaggerated. In particular, those initially depressing circulation figures, cited above, do not take into account two things.
1. The extraordinary rise of the freesheet (Metro, etc). They probably distribute a million or more these days.
2. The rise of the newspaper website. The Guardian website alone is visited by 1m a day (I believe), the others are catching up. Of course many of these readers are foreign, many of them only read a few articles - rather than the whole paper - but is equally arguable that a wider foreign readership makes a paper MORE influential.
I think newspapers are in flux, rather than in decline. People are still avid consumers of news and opinions, they just get them in varying and different ways now - and they still see ‘newspapers’ - on and offline - as one of the best sources.
Also, the broadcast media - TV and radio - still take their cue from the newspapers, especially in terms of opinion and spin. As any one who has ever written a newspaper piece and then been rung up by half a dozen TV researchers will attest…
What is true, though, is that the Sun no longer has quite the power it used to. But that’s partly a factor of the broadsheets covering more tabloid-y ground, and the rise of the Daily Mail.
Generally, politicians are still rightly frit of the newspapers. As Blair’s backdown over the EU referendum, at the behest of Murdoch, amply proves.
Max, is there anywhere I can find a map of Edinburgh’s boundaries at council, Scottish Parliamentary, and Parliamentary level?
If Pentlands had still existed as a constituency, do you think we would have carried it on May 5th?
38. I’m surprised the Express readership is so low that it’s below the Star. The last time I read it, I found it to be an appalling paper full of adverts and little worthwhile news or comment. I don’t think the one headline in the Sun will alter public opinion much but he they carry on the story over 2 or 3 years, then it could have an effect. they won’t do this of course as they wil get bored.
Re Mps thinking DD is a shit. A very well spoken driver from a top notch cab company in London used the “shit” to describe DD’s attitude and behaviour when he drove him home once.
“6.I am incensed that we have to continue to pay for this socialist mouthpiece. ”
Nuala, is this the same ’socialist mouthpiece’ which devoted an hour of what should have been balanced ‘Question Time’ to trying to give mouth to mouth resuscitation to the corpse of the Conservative Party? - and which has had the two Breakfast prime presenters out shadowing the two Davids for days at a time? The ’socialist mouthpiece’ which employs ‘nasty Nick’ Robinson, out-and-out Tory died-in-the-wool as a political editor?
Apologies. 386 killed on the Belgrano but as Stonch said (and I thought would be obvious)the point I was making was the tastelessness of the SUN. Insulting a few hundred politicians doesn’t even register.
I don’t buy all this BBC bias rubbish. I think it is extremely difficult to accurately represent this massively diverse country now. Comparing the BBC to Fox News is really an insult to all our intelligence.
I think a Paxo interview is an excellent way of finding out how someone reacts under pressure and how well they know their stuff. As also is Question Time and standing at the despatch box. DD really can’t string a coherent sentence together. Charles Clarke was head and shoulders above him in the Terrorism debate even though he was defending the indefensible. Dominic Grieve has put the case much better for the Conservatives.
I have a feeling that Cameron is a lightweight too. I just can’t see him as PM neither can I see GB being any good in that role. I have a soft spot for Charles Clarke who could be a refreshing change as he is intelligent and open - he appears to listen.
I think they should go further. Everyone should have the right to register for a GP either at their home or their work address. This would be especially popular in London where professionals could visit NHS practices in the City and the West End and not have to share a waiting room with adddicts, OAP and children. Wouldn’t have to take a half day for a doctor’s appointment either.
99 - Max, do you not think it would have made more sense for the Tories to have poured all their efforts into Edinburgh SW where they were in a clear second behind Labour rather than waste resources in Edinburgh S which was always going to come down to a battle between Labour and the Lib Dems?
OT, why is the Liberia Presidential Election market on betfair still open? Is it not yet confirmed? Are they waiting for clearance from international observers?
By election Result 10th Nov 05
Northumberland CC - Morpeth
LD 473 (40.7%) +0.3%
Con 304 (26.2%) +3.8%
Green 154 (13.3%) -3%
Lab 144 (12.4%) -8.5%
Ind 87 (7.5%) +7.5%
LD HOLD
101 - Yes - it would have removed 4 Labour wards and added in the two Tory held wards in Edinburgh South where we polled very well. Also as the seat would have been more heavily targeted it would have boosted our vote further We would also have won quite easily the old Galloway and upper Nithsdale and probably the old Perth Seat as well. Allthough having said that the dynamics in each seat would have been different from the contest over the new boundaries so it’s hard to say for certain.
The only place I can think you’ll find detailed maps is the Boundary Commision for Scotland website. They certainly have maps for the new (STV) council wards.
Is post 107 satirical?
It reminded me of a friend who told me how much he approved of Ken Livingstone’s congestion charge because it meant poor people could no longer drive through London.
102. “I’m surprised the Express readership is so low……. The last time I read it, I found it to be an appalling paper ……”
Excuse the editing Woody but couldn’t agree with you more…..!
108 - No, Edinburgh SW is very different from the old seat and will probably only be won in a really good year. Edinburgh South was slightly more winnable as was (IIRC) Edinburgh Norh and Leith. I suppose the logic is that we had more chance in what (just) remains a three horse race than what was a two horse race against a cabinet minister.
not satirical at all. the principle of treatment at the convenience of the citizen rather than the NHS is surely the right one. the fact that i wouldn;t have to wait surrounded by the people who clog up our surgeries is just a bonus. and i’m a labour man.
106. That’s an interesting view. That’s the first I’ve read of someone supporting Charles Clarke in the last few months. DDs performance couldn’t have been that bad because it was widely praised in the media and he was the principle speaker on the Bill that resulted in the governements first HOC defeat.
113. I always thought they had a similar readership number to the Daily Mail. That’s what happens if you put a pornographer in charge I suppose.
By Election 10th Nov 05
Rushmoor BC - St Johns
LD 573 (49.1%) +25.0%
Con 496 (42.5%) -19.2%
Lab 99 (8.4%) -5.8%
LD GAIN FROM CON
St Johns Ward , Rushmoor is in Farnborough , Hampshire
bEFORE ANYONE ASKS
114. Do you have much to do with the Tory association in Edinburgh Max?
Just on the Murrayfield result it was pretty poor for Labour who will have a very difficult job of holding onto Edinburgh Central (where Murrayfield is at Holyrood) in 2007 against the Lib Dems and quite possibly the Greens, who topped the regional list vote in the constituency.
114. But surely the folly of the strategy was born out by the results Max - Edinburgh North and South are now two-horse races, but none of the horses is a Tory. I’d agree with Dean’s point - surely concentrating on SW would have at worst left you within striking distance of Alastair Darling next time round.
101/111 - You have to consult the various Boundary Commision Reports for Scotland to get maps to compare the various boundaries .
At home I have the detailed results for the current parliamentary constituencies based on 2003 Council Results . From memory the Conservatives should have done much better in Edinbugh SW than they did .
Where is Vino today , this weeks’s council byelections are pretty good for the Lib Dems and emphasise the point I made to him that they do vary from week to week , so much depending on local factors .
118 - Not so much Woody I’m really just involved back home (T,E&L and DC&T). I’m not a member of the Edinburgh South C&U association despite spending most of my time their. I’ve a few friends who are involved though.
120 - We would have been no where near in Edinburgh South West and certainly not within striking distance. None of the seats were great but South was the least worst option. We don’t have a duty to stand down from a contest to make it more winnable for the Liberal Democrats. Which is what a lot of their supporters are really getting at.
He was only praised in the media because the goverment was defeated. His actual performance at the despatch box was poor…his delivery is so hesitant and then he forgets what point he was making.
LD 573 (49.1%) +25.0%
Con 496 (42.5%) -19.2%
Lab 99 (8.4%) -5.8%
Wouldn’t that mean that one of Labour’s voters last time wasn’t a whole person?
121 - Also if you look at the Scottish Politics site (just type Scottish Politics into Google) they have a list compairing the old wards in the constituencies to the new ones.
123 - Will report back tonight when I get home and can consult my detailed records . We are still missing Arun Council result Angmering Ward from lat night but should be a comfortable Conservative hold .
125 - ???
124. Can’t agree with that at all. He may have appeared to forget the point because he allowed and knocked back so many interventions. I think we’ll just have to disagree about that one.
123. Gosh, you’re very defensive on this subject. That isn’t at all what I was getting at; just looking at the results that’s the conclusion I came to. You said that you would only get SW on a very good year; it now appears to me that you will have to have a very good year to get any of them, which would indicate that your strategy in the city was the wrong one.
If anyone’s interested… votes in by Thursday post were 15%. YouGov are due to have a poll of members in the DTel tomorrow (Sat). I believe they are asking members whether they have voted yet - that maybe where Neill got his 30% from.
124.”He was only praised in the media because the goverment was defeated. His actual performance at the despatch box was poor…his delivery is so hesitant and then he forgets what point he was making”
the Guardian wrote that he sounded like a geographic teacher talking about agricolture in Belgium!
130 - Sorry I wasn’t having a go at you Chrisco. It’s more some Liberals in the City who blame us for not allowing them to win the seat. And I don’t accept that South is unwinnable. It’s the kind of place where a more moderate Conservative party can appeal. We’ll also be helped by the introduction of STV which will allow ourselves (and indeed the Liberals) to build up a local government base in areas where we previously don’t have won. At present both ourselves and the LD’s have a number of seats with huge majorities whereas Labour have a lot with very small ones.
Max - I have the feeling that your second name must be Campbell! Congratulations anyway on a very fine piece of spin!
Obviously the Tories have not been losing seats in byelections - they didn´t have any to start with, having been eliminated from the Scottish political scene. It is only thanks to PR that they have been able to make a comeback - since the PR seats give them a certain amount of credibility on which to build.
It may surprise you to hear that I think that is a thoroughly good thing - the Tories are an important minority and their point of view ought to be fairly represented. But please stop exaggerating so much!
Sir Christopher Meyer to be out by this afternoon? Incase anyone thought he was only insulting to Mr Blair they should read what he said about John Major.
131. What is your source for the fact that 15% of votes had been returned by Thursday post?
101. (et al.) Ordnance Survey has a site covering (existing) electoral boundaries, which probably doesn’t give all that you’re looking for but is a fun tool for map junkies.
http://www.election-maps.co.uk/
Conservative party sources.
138 in answer to 136, in case it wasn’t clear.
116 - what is wrong with pornography. Pornography is excellent.
107 - you repulse me.
“Pornography is excellent”.
All pornography?
116.”DD was the principle speaker on the Bill that resulted in the governements first HOC defeat.”
I think Dominic Grieve deserves this credit more than Davis. I think I could get the backing of AHM on this.
138/139. The ballot is being conducted independently by the Electoral Reform Society.
Are the ERS counting the ballot paper envelopes every day and passing the info to the Conservative Party?
Sir Christopher Meyer…….another SHIT to add to Paxo’s list methinks
“the fact that i wouldn;t have to wait surrounded by the people who clog up our surgeries is just a bonus. and i’m a labour man”
Can’t blame the party if it sometimes attracts Tories!!
144. That’s correct.
142 - no, not all pornography. Particularly dark stuff I don’t approve of, and their are obvious very bad kinds of pornography which are illegal that I disapprove of as much as the next man.
Come on, we all like porn.
140. Indeed it is, but when pornographers diversify into newspapers, it normally results in those papers becoming tacky and purile.
there not their
Yes DD did take interventions……..not as many as Clarke who was simply better. And remember Clark’s interventions were nearly all hostile whilst Davis just had the likes of Gummer popping up to tell everyone how clever he was.
149 - actually I 100% agree. I hate being titillated when I am trying to do something else. Like when the Times has a pic of someone you really fancy on the front page looking sexy and it just puts you off reading the news.
Shall I tell you what I hate? Suduko
133. Oh come on Max, Edinburgh South isn’t unwinnable, but the Tories would have to be having a VERY, VERY good day to win the seat, given that the Lib Dems are 400 votes behind Labour and the Tories are 3,500 the Lib Dems.
What odds though that Labour drop from first to third next time?
Its quite amusing that the Daily Mail and Daily Express have a pact. If the Daily Mail don’t call Desmond a pornographer, then the Daily Express won’t point out that Lord Rothermere has a child by his (ex?)mistress (alledgedly). So they can all play happy family values I guess.
The full local election results are at
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/byelections/story/0,11043,1640570,00.html
Labour and Tories both lost a seat to Lib Dems. A significant swing to Lib Dems in Murrayfield, despite the intervention of a Green and a Liberal candidate.
Where’s Vino?
Lovely cartoon in todays FT.
Police man on the doorstep talking to the householder (who has a beard) “I’m locking you up for 28 days, again”
155.”Where’s Vino? ”
Vino arrives only at night……..
134 - John13 - I was talking about council by-elections given that you were rubbishing our performance in a council by-election. I would have thought that was pretty clear.
For those who cant be bothered to link to the Guardian - last para:
Analysis of six comparable wards fought both times by all three major parties - adjusted to take account of differing performances at council and general elections when they have been on the same day - gives a line-up of Con 35.1%, Lib Dem 32.2%, Lab 26.8%.
Won’t take many more of these and a couple of poor Polls and the skids will really be under Blair. Labour MP’s will sign up to The Selfpreservation Society even more readily than they will vote to retain civil liberties!
There certainly doesn’t seem to have been a backlash against the Tories, the Lib Dems and indeed the SNP for voting against 90 days. Although as usual we can’t read too much into a handful of by-election results.
Apologies about the apostrophe should be MPs not MP’s
Max - why not we all read far too much into the smallest factlet!
159. Icarus, I think that those projections were giving a Con lead before the GE.
Exactly so, Max. You were going in for a bit a typical young Tory triumphalism, when you were talking about your “good record” in not losing local government seats.
I was simply pointing out (with a bit of exaggeration - which explains your confusion- sorry!) that you didn´t have that many to defend.
162 - Of course - it’s much more fun that way Icarus!
161. MP’s is a bit old-fashioned but not technically incorrect Icarus, so don’t fret!
It was a good night for the Lib Dems, but overall, the results since the general election have been fairly poor for them.
166. While we’re talking about this, why is “an MP” and not “a MP”?
Interesting figures, Icarus (159). Puting them into Baxter, the Tories are STILL 34 short of a majority, even though they do end up with 290 seats. However, they lose four to the Lib Dems (Eastbourne, Guildford, Totnes and Weston Super Mare), who end up with 129, most of them from Labour. Labour is down to 195.
Time for the Labour Party to start thinking about PR again, perhaps?