Did DD miss his Question Time opportunity?
November 14th, 2005-
Team source says Davis failed to use his “killer sound-bites”?
The general view, backed up by the opinion polls, was that David Davis was the clear winner of the Question Time debate between the two contenders the week before last - and there’s little doubt that his performance put new life into his campaign.
But word has reached PB.C that those advising 
David Davis were very disappointed by what their man did in the debate with David Cameron and that he had failed to capitalise on half a dozen “clear shots at goal” which he had been prepared for.
In the run-up to a week last Thursday Camp Davis put an enormous amount of effort getting their candidate prepared for what was always going to be a key show-down - particularly as it was broadcast on the eve of the ballot mailing going out. Team members realised that not only had they to stop the Cameron band-wagon but there had to be clear blows that would undermine the old-Etonian’s campaign. Ideally there should have been a knock out punch.
-
So two things were put into place - Davis was given a lot of performance coaching while skilled writers sought to anticipate how the debate would go and prepare “killer” sound-bites aimed at Cameron. The Shadow Home Secretary then rehearsed these many times so he could maximise the impact.
The first aspect worked very well and there was no doubt that a confident candidate appeared before the audience in Nottingham where the programme was recorded. But, according to our source who was very close to the whole process, Davis simply failed to use the “killer sound-bites” - even though he had learned them by heart and the course of the the debate gave him the ideal opportunity.
Meanwhile Sunday saw some of the heaviest betting in the Tory leadership race since the contest started with a lot of money going on Cameron from punters trying to cash on on what is now seen as a near certainty. The total that has been matched on him on the Betfair betting exchange alone is touching the £1m mark - more than half of that coming in the past week.
We’ve got to a stage where gambling investors are dominating the market and they tend to chase favourites when they can sniff a sure thing- at whatever the price.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
I don’t agree that DD did win the Question Time debate. The programme was biased against DC and DD’s tax policies that he aired have since been discredited.
Interesting focus group of London floating voters on Radio4’s ‘To-day program. They chose Davis unanimously. Cameron was ‘Blair lite’, reminded them of a Scoda and was too privileged. Davis was solid, reiable, from a more humble background and reminded them of a Jaguar. Suprisingly many mentioned that he was the modern heir to Thatcher who most seemed to rate highly.
Not significant to the result which is clearly in the bag but for those Tories who listened probably very worrying indeed.
2 - sounds like the usual Today Prog set up. From what I have seen in Sutton DC wins comfortably over DD, just as in the rest of the country. That is from both members and non members.
Rik & Roger, Having been a BBC newsman I think we have to be very wary about the desires of journalists to see a story move on. This is not bias but just people trying to put a bit of spark into their bulletins and programmes. It just gets boring if its Cameron all the time just as it was boring at the start of October when it was DD who looked dominant.
I put down last week’s coverage of the Times poll to the same element.
2 - I heard that focus group too but I could only make out around 3 different voices (excluding the facilitator) so I was wary about it being statistically meaningful.
A bit late again but..RESULTS for PA
Arun District - Angmering: C 846, Lib Dem 421. (May 2003 - Three seats C 886, 862, 733, Lib Dem 512). C hold. Swing 5% Lib Dem to C.
Dacorum Borough - Highfield and St Pauls: Lib Dem 835, Lab 498, C 249. (May 2003 - Three seats Lab 666, 663, 639, Lib Dem 484, 476, 427, C 281, 278, 253). Lib Dem gain from Lab. Swing 17.6% Lab to Lib Dem.
Edinburgh City - Murrayfield: C 1327, Lib Dem 859, Ind 226, Lab 114, Green 58, SNP 52, Liberal Party 12, UKIP 4. (May 2003 - C 1719, Lib Dem 749, Lab 556, SNP 263, Scottish Socialist Party 126). C hold. Swing 5.4% C to Lib Dem.
Glasgow City - Knightswood Park: Lab 973, SNP 374, Lib Dem 235, Scottish Socialist Party 97, C 80, Green 35. (May 2003 - Lab 1613, SNP 484, SSP 298, C 269, Lib Dem 143). Lab hold. Swing 3.4% Lab to SNP.
Midlothian Council - Loanhead: SNP 768, Lab 311, Ind 268, Ind 217, Lib Dem 97, C 13, Ind 9, Green 8. (May 2003 - Ind 611, Lab 599, SNP 285, Lib Dem 194, C 82). SNP gain from Ind. Swing 22.3% Lab to SNP.
Northumberland County - Morpeth North: Lib Dem 473, C 304, Green 154, Lab 143, Ind 87. (May 2005 - Lib Dem 949, C 526, Lab 491, Green 384). Lib Dem hold. Swing 1.7% Lib Dem to C.
Penwith District - Hayle South: Ind 374, Lab 181. (June 2004 - Two seats Ind 736, Lib Dem 465, Lab 184). Ind hold.
Rushmoor Borough - St Johns: Lib Dem 573, C 496, Lab 99. (June 2004 - C 924, Lib Dem 361, Lab 212). Lib Dem gain from C. Swing 22.1% C to Lib Dem.
There were two results from Telford & The Wrekin which weren’t mentioned by the PA. One Conservative hold and one Labour hold, but both with fairly large swings to the Conservatives.
Back to the topic, is there any possibility that Davis is himself aware of the low probability of a win and wanted to keep the door open for his future career?
Davis is nobody’s fool and clearly knows the Party well, better in my view than Cameron if his period as Chairman was anything to go by; so he will have been well aware of his chances, whatever the public posturing.
The problem with killer blows is their impact if they fail to kill.
“We’ve got to a stage where gambling investors are dominating the market and they tend to chase favourites when they can sniff a sure thing- at whatever the price.”
Does the gambling ever have any effect on the outcome of the elections?
8 - “The problem with killer blows is their impact if they fail to kill.”
Meaning … ?
9 - its very difficult to link cause and effect, but there has been a trend recently for the media to report betting odds in relation to political stories. There is a danger of “chicken and egg” in all this, of course, which seems to have been the case to a certain extent with Cameron, in that the odds become a self-reinforcing and fulfilling prophesy, especially if journalists are looking for a shortcut to a story.
Its really obvious to me you can’t read anything nationally into these local election results. Face it people you have to be satisfied with national elections…
[12] Wel, it depends what you mean by “nationally”. In Scotland, the Conservatives continue to face an increasingly grim position- even Murrayfield, which is about as solid a bastion of the Tories in Scotland as there is shows substantial erosion- and the result in Midlothian- 13 votes- is astonishing, considering that you need 10 people even to be nominated. Meanwhile, in Glasgow, looks like the Tories did not even stand (maybe they could not find even 10 people to sign the papers). Perhaps the (Scottish) leadership changes have not gone down too well…
An idea that has been bandied around my friends lately as a soundbite, which I think would be rather effective, is
“Good for you, good for your neighbour”
I think this would help summarise a more positive and inclusive attitude about Conservative policies; it also has echoes of Blair’s “Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime” slogan. As I don’t know what other forum to suggest it to, I shall put it on here and hope someone reads it …
Good for me, good for my neighbour. From GWB in the US via IDS and the CSJ in Britain - has been used by both DC and DD, who used the phrase during QT. Acronyms, anyone?
Tabman at 10, I meant if you land a very damaging punch yet fail to knock out your opponent and they then become your boss you have to consider the liklihood of retribution!
In this case I am saying that davis is clearly aware of the fact that a ‘down and dirty’ scrap with Cameron would risk damaging both of them equally, ruining the head of steam that the contest has built up for the Conservatives and in the end not stopping Cameron.
Davis might just be putting the interests of Party ahead of person.
13 - Sorry - substantial erosion - a drop of 0.4% following the death of a long serving, popular councillor. The Liberals were telling everyone that they’d ‘won’ Murrayfield in 2005 and that the race was too close to call and would go to a recount - didn’t quite work out that way.
We did stand in Glasgow but surprise, surprise didn’t do terribly well. And I wasn’t that surprised that we didn’t top the ballot in a former mining town like Loanhead.
And in Scotland (unlike in England and Wales) you don’t need ten people to sign your nomination forms. Hence we polled just six votes in Lochside - mind you still six more than the Lib Dems who couldn’t even find a candidate.
James, a fall of 0.4% is hardly “substantial erosion.”
But, then again, DD must have taken the longer-term impact of the soundbites in when he agreed them with his media team in the first place. A failure to use them certainly looks like a last-minute tactical change on his part, but a poor one given that this was his last major chance to gain votes. A ruthless candidate would have taken the risk and made friends later.
Hmm, any idea what these sock-it-to-em sound bites actually were? Frankly, I have my doubts. Perhaps more plausible is self-justification from elements within DD’s camp (sign of internal dissent?): “…If only he had listened to us….” Not appealing.
Given who we know is on the Davis team and looking at David Davis’ own political record to date the ’sock it to em’ sound bites would in all probability have been designed to damage the opponent rather than embellish his own reputation, Davis is a first-class attacking politician but not a great salesman.
Davis is a past Whip and knows full well what the long-term fallout from a very bitter contest would be for himself and the Party. If he pulled his punches at the eleventh hour that is surely to his credit and not a reason for criticism, even if it does deprive the media of the ‘Tory contest turns nasty’ line that helps sell newspapers.
I get the impression that if Davies weren’t in this contest he would have come out for Cameron.
‘Keeping the Blair wheels turning’. ‘Blairs legacy under threat in health and education’. Pretentious, or what?
He wants to give parents/patients more choice, and thats controversial? It might be for a few labour MP’s fighting the last century’s battles…but for the rest of us?
I should think he’ll manage something, but not much. An small increase in choice is described as a ‘legacy’, or wheels turning?
This seems such small potatoes to me, I must be missing something obvious.
13. Labour got just 12 votes in the Epsom & Ewell by-election two weeks ago, i.e. 1.4% of the poll, and 14 in one in Maidstone a month ago. But it proves very little, I’m afraid.
Fine Marcus - so despite this interminbale contest Cameron will not have been tested under fire.
I am sure your opponents will be as gallant as Mr Davis and hold back when the time comes!!!!
17 - Hi Max , Any comments on the figures I posted on Friday which showed that in Edinburgh SW the Conservatives on the 2003 local elections should have been a close 2nd to Labour in the May GE but in fact polled fewer votes than in 2003 on a bigger turnout .
Alex has already mentioned it yesterday, but here’s Kitty Ussher’s comments about tories, Libdem and Lab rebels (she forgets the nats and a couple of others) having their hands full of blood.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/columnist/story/0,9321,1642293,00.html
I think that just the use of those words undermines her argument. She just showes that she’s no better than Gall*oway when he talks about Iraq.
25 - I think it’s a simple case of people voting differently at council and general election level. With the exception of 1995 we have consistently polled the most votes in the old Pentland seats (at council level) despite not winning it in 1999 or 2001. Most of our councillors up untill the last 2-3 years have tended to be very long serving and undoubtedly some had a large personal vote (brian Meek in Colinton being a good example of this).
I suspect one of the reasons for targetting South was that the Tory vote held up well in both Tory wards despite the two (long-serving) councillors standing down. In Fairmilehead the new councillor polled the biggest numeric majority of any Tory (and perhaps any candidate) in the whole of Scotland.
IIRC a similar anomally exists in Edinburgh South and Aberdeen South where Labour are third in terms of council votes in both seats but topped the poll in 2005.
27 - I think you are oversimplifying there , Max . Labour as usual for a governing party did poorly in local elections in 2003/2004 and saw a recovery in their vote in the May GE . From polling 2,000 more votes than Labour in 2003 in SW the Conservative vote fell by more than 2,000 votes on a bigger turnout . The Lib Dems by contrast added some 3,500 votes to come from 4th to a close 3rd . There was clearly something going on in Edinburgh at the last GE though I do not know what .
Surely, the only really interesting question is whether either or both of the Davids will back Blair on Welfare reform, education and/or health service changes? The latter two will be pushed through by Blair’s Scottish MPs despite the fact that none of their effects will take place in Scotland (and MSPs of all parties wouldn’t touch them with a barge poll).
But these are all Tory policies Blair will be trying to push through. So, will the desire to defeat Blair out-do the desire to see Tory policies, or will David C and/or David D add further to public dissillusionment with politicians by hypocritically voting with the ’smelly scks brigade’ against the Government, as they did on ‘terrorism’ (sic)?
Davis has just said on the World at One was that the Populus poll last week was bigger than the internet poll - presumably the YouGov one. Well he’s completely wrong. The Populus poll figures were from 122 Tory voters. The YouGov poll was of more than 700 Tory members.
It’s like his claim during the Tory conference that he was odds-on favourite when he was not.
I loathe politicians who tell such stupid lies.
Mike, Well, you’re a regular on World at One these days, aren’t you?
Why not give ‘em a call….
29 - “Smelly socks brigade?” Surely the fragrant essence of orange sandal - “cos you’re worth it.”
Ouch! Come off it mike - that’s a bit harsh to describe it as a lie and not like you. Whilst the relevant sample in the poll on Populus is, as you point out, smaller that the YouGov poll, the total poll size was 1500 so larger. It would be perfectly normal to refer to the total sample size when referring to a poll rather than the sub-set relevant to a particular response.
30. Mike S - you’re right of course but I still think this Populus poll should not be ignored. On a sample of over 700 voters of all parties it showed DC 37, DD 30, Don’t know 33. If DD is that close amongst all voters can we be sure he is miles behind amongst Tory members. The key point I’ve made here several times is that Tory members are mainly not activists - their views are likely to match Tory voters.
Re YouGov - does anyone know the age breakdown of their latest survey of 748 Tory members? I suspect older members will be more likely to vote DD and younger ones DC. Is the age profile of the YouGov survey in line with the age profile of all members?
Per YouGov survey 1/3 of members had voted by last Thursday. But according to Conservativehome.com, only 1/6 of members had voted by Thursday night. This is a significant difference.
In summary is there a risk that the activists (who are more likely to be younger, more likely to vote early and more likely to take part in YouGov) are overwhelmingly for DC but the majority of members (who are not activists) could be in favour of DD?
Well am I annoyed.
Just got 10 text messages telling me the same thing from camp Davis. He won supposingly with a commanding performance! I do not remember giving them permission to send me all those! Think an email is in order.
Although some might argue it shows his commitment to winning my vote! One text is fine, 10 - get the technology in order. Do not want that every hustings.
James - I expect they felt it necessary to tell you that, just in case you hadn´t noticed for yourself!
I will be looking for myself at each performance on Wednesday in Bolton - wonder if the text will match my conclusions then?!
“Good for you, good for your neighbour”
Dont give up your day job Anatole…. This sounds like a slogan for ‘Neigbouhood Watch’ or a shared burgler alarm for semis…..
Re 34 The ICM Tory members poll last month had support for DC at a higher level in the 65+ age group than in the rest. See http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/reviews/2005/BBC%20-%20Conservative%20members%20poll/Tory-Members-Q1.pdf
40. Thanks a lot Mike - very interesting.
I see ICM had 127 people over 65 years old (out of 215) and they weighted this down to 95 people.
Do you know the age profile of the latest YouGov survey? It’s not on their website. If you don’t know, could Anthony tell us?
Can anyone in the know advise about ballots returned? Are ERS reporting to the Party how many they’ve received? Some people on here say they are and some say they are not. Who is right? YouGov say 1/3 voted by last Thurs. Conservativehome.com say only 1/6.
Various rumours were put about regarding Davis’ coaching for QT. Including that Martyn Lewis and Amanda Platell were drafted in to coach him.
Who knows who is to blame? Davis seemed to benefit more from the audience being suspiciously hostile to Cameron than from his own repartee…
41 - Mike L - Just reported on Radio 5 that 1/4 of votes are in and commented that by this time in the Clarke/IDS contest alot more votes were in. Not sure what this indicates.
Amanda Platell seems likely following the job she did for William.
30. I hold no brief for DD Mike, but his error could be down to ignorance as much as wilful deceit….the poll was widely reported as having a sample size of 1500 by the media and it took a bit of digging to reveal the truth. Having said that, such ignorance would be pretty unimpressive, too. He could just be deluding himself.
43. Thanks - but what is their source? Is this just speculation? Everyone seems to be saying something different.
The bottom line surely is are ERS keeping this information confidential? They are a very reputable organisation so cannot believe they would be leaking it. I can only imagine that they might tell the Party - but if so surely the reports should be consistent.
re 45. The fact that the Populus survey was based on the views of only 122 Tory supporters was featured on this site and Conservastivehome on the evening that it was published. The Daily Telegraph ran a big story on the sample size the following day.
I would not have raised this if DD had not done the same thing by telling “fibs” about the betting odds at the time of the Tory conference.
Have just had an email saying that James Clappison MP and Bob Spink MP have endorsed David Cameron.
On the proportion that have voted there will be a huge gap between the numbers that have been posted and the numbers that have been received by ERS because it is going Freepost. This is usually treated as the lowest priority mail and can take a week to ten days to arrive.
Last week YouGov had 250 of their responders saying they had voted and 498 saying they had yet to do so.
Alastair - Isn’t there anyone in the Tory party who isn’t on your e-mailing list? ;). Presumably, that’s why you’re still posting at 3.30am. But of course, secret squirrel, some are more favoured than others
46 - They did not mention a source - just another figure to add to the others that leaves us none the wiser ! I can see ERS giving turnout figures to party officials at various times, as this does not prejudice the vote in any way.
Oops, that was silly ole me @ 50, not a new admirer
43/49/51 - latest confirmed figures I have - from ‘party’ sources - are that 21% had voted by Friday’s post.
52. You’ve just blown your own cover John O!
46 - I had read somewhere over the weekend that 1/3 (wasn’t it Saturday’s poll in the Telegraph?) of the votes were already back and they expected that many more were in transit over the weekend and they expected over half to be returned by mid this week. As you say, everyone seems to have a different story and we don’t even know if ERS is releasing this information though they should be the only ones who know. I have also had an email from the Davis people claiming that DD won a screaming victory at this morning’s hustings, but other sources tell me that not only is that not quite right, but that he also turned up 15 minutes late! There is information out there to satisfy every appetite.
50 - John: One of the curses of popularity, I suppose!
And being an old Tory vampire I require little sleep, so I am able to indulge my passion for politics at all hours of the day or night!
55. The vox pops the One o’clock news did, obviously totally unscientific, seemed to give it to Davis.
Chrisco, What cover?
Oh Really, yes, O’Reilly…
55 - The clips I heard of people leaving the hustings indicated that DD did better. Even DC voters interviewed seemed to agree, one saying it was 1-0 to DD. DD turned up late for Question Time as well.
59 - JohnT: Yes, he seems to be making a habit of it, doesn’t he?
Congratulations to him on a good hustings if that was the verdict of the membership assembled. We’ll see if a) he can keep it up and b) if it’s enough to affect the outcome.
One wonders how many of those present had already sent their ballots in and were only there for a social event.
28. Mr. Senior - if you look at the local election results for 2003 for the Pentlands wards and the votes for the scottish parliament for the said constituency, I think you’ll find the Tory vote was about 2000 lower for the parliament than the council. This is pretty much the same as in the GE 2005..so splitting your ticket seems a well-established practice in this part of Edinburgh, as Max suggests. Only about 85% of Tory votes in the locals went to them for the parliamentary seat. If you multiply the Tory vote in the SW wards in 2003 by 0.85 you get around 10300 votes, very close to what they actually got in the GE.
60. Making a habit of turning up late, or making a habit of winning debates against Cameron?
Also, you have to wonder at political party members who would see a midday alcohol-free debate between Mr Dumb and Mr Dumber at a second rank football club as a social event.
62 - I suppose you could argue either depending on your inclination, Baskerville but he doesn’t seem to be doing very well in the polls for someone with such great debating skills.
As to your second point, real political anoraks as you know, tend to value the chance to converse with members of their own kind above things like elegant surroundings and going on the piss. When you get to be the age of an average Tory member, often it is quite nice just to get out and see different people. I speak from personal experience in this!
O/T - I see the Christian Democrats have ratified the coalition agreement between themselves and the SPD at their Party Conference in Berlin. The SPD are expected to vote sometime today as well.
60. Just back from Leicester. Firstly the signposting to the Walkers stadium is shocking but that is beside the point. It is true that DD was late again. Needs to sack his driver or get Sat Nav!
I thought both candidates performed well. The questions wren’t that tricky. DD read his speech whereas DC did a Portillo and stood beside his lectern with his speech learnt by heart. He also had his sticker army out and gave away some tasty mints. There is a lot of agreement between both candidates it would seem. A score draw I would say.
P.S Your favourite Tory was in attendance Andrea. Good old dinky himself.
53. Thanks Baskerville. Adding Saturday and Monday’s post should take this to around 30%. Per Mike at 49 - with Freepost being slow and also the fact a lot may have voted over the weekend best guess is probably about 40% have now voted. Assuming an 80% turnout that would mean 50% of votes have now been cast.
64 - Woody: How many people do you think were there, and were they clearly demarcated into camps for DC and DD or did they seem largely undecided?
65 - There will be a number of members who have marked their ballots and sealed them, but who have not yet posted them back. Quite how many do this is a mystery, but I am aware of a couple personally. These people are unlikely to rethink their decision now.
66. Sky News reported an audience of 350. Woody, what were the toughest questions?
woody662. Was there eveidence of “staged” question at the hustings, It looked quite obvious to me at question time, a small gang (of students?) who were together before the filming seemed to have coordinated hits on DC, the ridiculous “you couldnt run a bath” line. But perhaps I got it all wrong, call me a cynic…
I’m surprised there are complaints about DD being late for a little local event and yet no-one has commented at all on DC missing Any Questions completely. He was reduced to speaking by mobile phone from a car park at Manchester airport. This explains why he was so out of kilter with the Buxton audience I suppose. without seeing their faces it must have been difficult to judge the mood in the hall and as a result he received much less approval from the audience. Indeed when he congratulated Sir christopher Meyer on a “fine expose” the hall was completely silent. Jenny Tongue on the other hand got a stomping ovation for saying the publication was deplorable.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1871991,00.html
Thanks Sophia - that sounds a bit more like what I’ve been hearing from my contacts.
66. About 3-400 I’d say. It’s difficult to tell how the audience was inclined but you just get the impression that Cameron was in front hearing conversations before and after.
69. No staged questions. They were fairly straight forward and there was nothing to trip up on at all.
73 - Many thanks, Woody.
Normally I restrict myself these days to observing the PB debates, but Mike’s introduction to this piece cannot go unchallenged, particularly as it is wrong in virtually every assertion.
There was never a strategy for a killer knockout blow. These two guys are in the same Party! It’s highly unlikely therefore that in any debate there will be a so-called ‘knockout punch’. If there had been, from either DC or DD, it would almost certainly have been bad for the Party as a whole.
When I read a phrase like “But word has reached PB.C that those advising David Davis were very disappointed” it reminds me of the words of the late lamented Sir John Junor who, in his Crossbencher column, would utter the magic words, ‘pass the sickbag Alice’.
All this demonstrates is that Mike has been talking to someone who has very little connection, if any, with the DD campaign and who wants to sound important. I’m sorry Mike fell for it. He’s usually more discerning.
The fact of the matter was that every independent commentator said DD won on points, and what’s more so did Conservative Party members. And they’re the electorate!
Mike L (way up the thread somewhere) -
I don’t know what the age breakdown of the YouGov Conservative party polls are I’m afraid. It shouldn’t matter that much, our polls of party members so far have shown that there really isn’t that much difference betwen different demographic groups within the party. For example, a month or so ago we included a question asking people to say how active they were in party so we could look at the cross-tabs and see if, for example, activists all loved David Davis while people who were just paper members all supported Ken Clarke. The bottom line was that it didn’t make much difference at all - the pattern of support amongst activists was pretty much the same as amongst inactive members.
The YouGov poll showed that 33% of people “had already voted”, but those peoples votes wouldn’t necessarily be in the hands of the ERS. They could have been sat on the mantlepiece waiting to be posted, sat in a postbox, sitting in the sorting office, etc, etc.
That’s assuming the ERS do keep Central Office informed of the number of ballot papers recieved, if not then it’s all empty speculation.
76. Thanks a lot Anthony - very helpful.
75 Iain Dale. Frankly my dear Iain if DD didn’t have a stategy for a “killer knockout blow” to take out Cameroon, then he deserves what’s coming - a damn good tonking - And as one of DD’s inner circle you should have been have had numerous options up your sleeve, as it is the DD campaign has been a shambles from the start, firstly allowing a terminally unpopular political thug such as Conway to remain close to your man, then our Ken steals the early limelight, followed by DD’s shambolic conference performance, from which DD has failed to recover.
Mike doesn’t need me to come to his aid , but when you post such obvious drivel it merits a sharp response. It sounds like the death throws of a utterly awful campaign …… does that sound familiar !
78 - Harsh, Jack.
Jack’s back…
78 - Was it a rough journey back, Jack ?
78. Jack’s back and making some very harsh statements. We are all conservatives and we don’t want to bring the contest down to that kind of dirty contest. As I said before, DD and DC seem to come across as agreeing on many issues. Too create bad headlines in trying to deliver low knockout blows would be political and career suicide.
BTW, did you have a good holiday?
78.Jack W, you’re finally back
Yesterday we discussed Charlie’s skin and frankly discussing it without you it’s not the same!
79-82 Hi all ….. harsh yes, but politics is a cruel business at times, and DD has snatched certain defeat from the jaws of victory, and one might only wonder if the Tories are about to elect a lightweight …. I’m not hopeful that Cameroon can give NuLab the good kicking it now justly deserves !
Wonderful time in Scotland, excellent journey back, albeit a few days early !!
83 Andrea. Hi Andrea, yes I regret to advise all sensible posters that I have returned !! …… fully revitalized from being full of malt ….. and as usual full of …..
BTW what’s happened to the emoticons ?
84 - Jack, I largely agree with your analysis of the way the Davis campaign has been run, though I would have been more diplomatic about it. It was the personal dig at the end I took issue with.
OT: Ruth Kelly Wardrobe Watch. Just been on ITV news, outfit by Matalan, doesn’t own an iron.
85.Jack W, you know I was impatiently waiting waiting for your comeback!
AHM and John O tried to tempt me, but I resisted.
[85] The emoticons have been interned for 90 days for voting against the Government…
88 - All that work for nothing! Grrr!
89 -
89. They were the first to get a punishment by Hilary Armstrong…..
75 Iain Dale : “The fact of the matter was that every independent commentator said DD won on points, and what’s more so did Conservative Party members. And they’re the electorate! ”
Where did you get the “fact” of what Conservative Party members think? It can only be opinion at best. Why do DD and his supporters repeatedly try to distort the evidence about the strength of their backing?
Alastair, We should both now boycott the Italian cyber-trollope in disgust ;).
86. Was it more Cameron and his vast media knowledge that made the difference. He has these young people (the same ones as at conference and QT it would seem) with stickers and packets of mints with ‘a breath of fresh air’ on and it gives people the impression that he’s the future. Is the substance there?
87. LOL. Can’t that dreadful trinny and susanah from BBC have a word with her.
90-AHM, you didn’t try hard enough. You know why main aspiration was to be part of your email list….just to become your internet stalker!
93. John, there’s always hope…..btw, has anything important happened today?
86 AHM. Evening Herbie …… I’ll never look at a VW Beetle again and not think of you !! . Your correct that last sentence was a bit sharp. But I really am frustrated at how Cameroon has smouched his way to the top job and how DD’s mob seem mesmerized and unable to land a blow ….. Ggrrrrrrrr.
Juicy Gossip 1. Which Cabinet Minister had a blazing row with TB on the afternnon of the terror vote over “stupid grandstanding” on the issue ?
Juicy Gossip 2. Last week which English Liberal Democrat MP told Chuck Kennedy to raise his game by the Spring or “piss off back to Scotland and stayed pissed”
Allowing for the spin in Iain Dale’s last paragraph (though most observers did count DD a marginal winner on QT), I can’t see why his posting has caused controversy. All he has done is to quite reasonably contradict Mike’s assertion that the DD campaign had some probably rather unpleasant ripostes to DC. Frankly, I think that reflects rather well on them as indeed the two candidates are going to have to work closely together after December 6th.
Jack W always adds to gaiety and merriment of nations but he has already stated that even had Kuddly Ken triumphed, this would not have guaranteed a Jacobite paw mark in the blue box. So we should treat his illustrious emanations with just the hint of something cold and fruity….
93 - Agreed! That’ll fix him.
94 - Woody: Cameron has run a brilliant media campaign there is no question. Of course I believe there is substance there, if I didn’t I wouldn’t be supporting him for the leadership. The difference is strategy. Davis seems to think he can set out a detailed manifesto now, changed circumstances in the future de damned. Cameron is speaking of a general direction to be taken, leaving the specifics to be decided collectively by the party when we have a better idea what we are going to be up against when the time comes to risk the merit of our policies at the point of attack. I can tell you which I think is the wiser course.
96 - That’s Herbert to you!
Jack @96. Well, are you going to enlighten us?
93- John/AHM. what is a cyber-trollope?
101 - Ah, that’s for us to know, and you to find out…
102. It’s not fair…..then there’s no doubt why I resisted your attentions….
“Can’t that dreadful trinny and susanah from BBC have a word with her”
“Ruth Kelly Wardrobe Watch. Just been on ITV news, outfit by Matalan”
….And you Conservatives wonder why you can’t attract female candidates. if you’re not asking about their housekeeping abilities or how well they service their husbands all you can talk about is their dress sense. Ruth Kelly has a brain and is a cabinet minister which is something none of your lot are or are ever likely to be if you two are an example of their selection panels.
They didn’t say they won’t select her because she has a bad fashion taste.
Your accusations are starting to sound ridiculous IMO.
100 John O. I refer you to your answer @ 102 !! I can’t make it too easy for you !!
BTW I’ve a few troubles in my own party …. some entryists are causing problems …… Republican Jacobites !!!!!!!!!
http://www.scottishjacobites.com
104. lol Roger. You’ve baited. The woman can’t dress properly in the same way as Eric Forth wears terrible ties.
104/105. Btw, Roger, your accusation of sexism to Woddy (because it’s just what you implied) is more offensive than a comment on Kelly’s dresses (which aren’t so bad. There’s much worse around).
106 - Bloody republicans. A pox on them all!
104. Roger, perhaps you’re right and I was too harsh. It can’t be easy to find clothes that conceals recent weight gain AND a cilice.
107/110. We could open the contest for the worst dress in Westminster. I start with my contenders (a male and a female):
http://cache.gettyimages.com/comp/53223331.jpg?x=x&dasite=GettyImages&ef=2&ev=1&dareq=AB27D0502010942195534B1B9E10FCFBAB5F41040C6A63E9AC9EDBE4E6F952F6
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2005/07/29/ncall29a.jpg
With male politician, the attention should be on the ties.
So anyone going to contribute to this or has already for Children In Need?
If I had some cash I would enter - buy some political history courtesy of Michael Howard.
What about you Andrea - crack open the student loan and get some memorabillia to go with your love of politics!
Or Mike - let pb.com purchase it and raffle at the next party!
http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=7725084848&category=367
109 AHM. The pox is far too good for that mob !!
BTW Mike refered me to an entry in Wikipedia …. I had to chuckle !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Articles_for_deletion/Scottish_Jacobite_Party
113. Jack, you’re a VIP now! You could be a contender in the next Celebrity Big Brother or Celebrity Mole.
Picked up a wee bit of concern from local Cameronites today, that he
could be seen as avoiding the issue, heard on the radio “waffling” mentioned by one leaving the Leicester meeting, (mind you could have been a DD supporter!)and could do with being straighter.
One person, I say only one, worried about his answer on the Sunday lunch-time programme when he would not answer a follow up.
Straws(no pun intended) in the wind maybe, but judging from the 5pm news tonight, there must be the beginning of a little,little worry for A H Matlock.
I remember in 1997 he answered well whether you agreed or not.
Is his present advice the best it could be?
Re 115, straighter in the sense of answering the question of course,
114 Andrea. Verily I’m now a legend in my own lunchtime !
Celebrity Big Brother is rather vulgar ….. I’ll go for Strictly Come Scottish Dancing …. a few Highland reels with the buxsome Widders !!
115 - Have you read the Times account of Today’s hustings, david? Even Woody, a declared DD supporter who attended the Leicester hustings today has said that he regarded the meeting as a draw. Add to this the strong probability that by the end of this week, the majority of votes will have been cast. I see no reason to worry whatsoever.
“but judging from the 5pm news tonight, there must be the beginning of a little,little worry for A H Matlock”.
…..Indeed there should. He was pretty bad but that’s the third poor interview I’ve heard from him in the last week. Fortunately if he’s not David Davis and he’s able to walk without falling over that seems to be more than adaquate for this limited electorate.
119 - Always gratifying and encouraging to have you disagree with me, Roger! Please, keep it up!
118 AHM. Agreed. This race is done. Cameroon is the winner, only the margin is in doubt …. I think DD will do well to keep it to 2/1.
Mind you with all the back stabbing in the Scottish Tories the Edinburgh husting might offer some light relief !!
117. Dancing with Jack?
(have you got “Dancing with the stars” in UK?)
needless to say AHM when I wrote ‘this limited electorate’ I was referring to the entire Tory electorate not just your good self! Re-reading my post I realized there could be a confusion.
I know I’m not Camerons target market but it strikes me more and more that when he’s not rehearsed he doesn’t do well at all and can seem vacuous
121 - Jack, my guess is something more along the lines of 60/40. I have no desire to see Davis humiliated, but the two big endorsements that Cameron received at the weekend from Hague and Fox, not to mention the unexpected backing of the Daily Mail has given him even more momentum. It is certainly possible that those amongst us who bet on Cameron getting less than 66% could be disappointed.
123 - The comparisons to Tony Blair have been done to death, and they’re rather misleading, but I remember a lot of people thinking he was ‘vacuous’ before 1997 as well. Having said that, I’m sure you were not one of them - he wears the right colour rosette, after all.
124. AHM, if your man polls more than 66%,will you throw (at your expences) a party for us?
126 - At my own expense?!? What do you think I am? A rich Tory or something?!
There will have to be a cash bar with all this lot coming!
127. Puh….I would have came there just for this…..
127 - …And a 350% (plus VAT) Milan student surcharge for entry?
129 - At least, John! Particularly considering the way he slagged the two of us off early on. Bloody cheek if you ask me!
124 AHM. I rather think that Cameroon may win by as much as 75/25. My own soundings north of the border and in Herts is that DC is a huge runaway winner and your hope that DD will not be humiliated will be in vain.
130. AHM, pay attention. considering you posted your email adress, I could send you lots of pics of the Venerable Helen…..I’m not sure if you really wants to fight me……..
129. John O, I’ve already organized a blid date for you in Birmingham with this lovely woman
132 - Aha, but I know how to work the spam filter Andrea! Your evil plot will be foiled!
Andrea, Sorry, but we’ve already met and ‘lunched’. I don’t know what it was like for her, but for me….
:) 
133. Allister Hebert Rupert (now I know because Rupert Herbert sounded familiar. It reminds me of Rupert Everett!), your spam filter couldn’t do anything against the Venerable! It’ll be a battle until the last breath……….
134.She wanted to meet you again and go beyond the lunch! I’ve always to tell you everything
135 - You are living proof that a little bit of information in the wrong hands can be dangerous!
136 - You will surely have noticed the inverted commas around lunched. But being the perfect gentleman, I regard this topic as closed
137. Now I’m deeply offended. You’re officially out of my favourites poster list.
138. I’ll write her what you’re suggesting here. I doubt she’ll be pleased. I now fear for your life! Goodbye John O……….
138 - Been fraternising with the enemy, have you? Tsk tsk…
141. He has even lobby Dinky once. At his home. And it was “funny”.
I’ve no words…….
Alastair, First, Bob Marshall-Andrews, then your Most Noble and Glorious Self. Soon he’ll just be left with Jack W - serves him right.
142 - Well, that’s different - at least he’s a Conservative!
143 - That’s alright, John… I’ve been blackballed from better clubs that this!!
141, 142, …the passions and perils of a misspent youth. Now all I have is…Ian Taylor
145. AHM/John. I happily leave you alone.
So now pick someone to make fun of. I’ve no interest to become your buffoon.
Well, if Manchester City fans can taunt Jose Mourinho with ‘Your coat’s from Matalan’ (one of their funniest lines since ‘Macclesfield Town, are you watching?’), there’s no reason why Tory MPs shouldn’t direct the same chant at Ruth Kelly.
Far more amusing, at any rate, than the alleged propensity of some Tory MPs to make melon weighing gestures towards female Labour MPs.
147 - Come now, Andrea.. all in good fun, you know!
149. AHM, I’ve the impression to be considered a buffoon, but it’s probably my fault.
Sadly I’m pretty used to have people making fun of me(especially when I was young).
150 - Believe me, there is a WORLD of difference between good natured teasing, which is what Alastair and I have been doing in the last few postings, and regarding someone as a buffoon.
150 - We were only teasing. Nothing malicious or hurtful intended.
151. well, yes, but I’ve an “unsure” nature and I always wonder
I hope you enjoyed your holiday, Jack, but forgive me if I’m a little sceptical about the quality of your soundings in Hertfordshire. Unless Hertsmere is completely unrepresentative of the County, there is no way Cameron is heading for 75% of the vote - although I am sure he is going to win.
There are still a handful of places for Thursday’s dinner with Ann Widdecombe BTW.
WRT the two candidates I am increasingly convinced it’s like a British version of Bush vs McCain in 2000. Bush, the media-friendly candidate, backed by the Party establishment, beat the more substantial veteran - but would you say that was a good choice now?
151. John O (you know you’re my favourite), have you followed your honourable Memeber’s advice?
http://www.iantaylormp.com/type2show.asp?ref=195&ID=59
152. AHM (you know you’re my favourite. John don’t read it!). I know it (at least I hope), but I’m a bit paranoic.
So now you could all start to make fun of me again
154 - Sean: What do you make of your MP’s declaration of support for DC today? I’m not sure how accurate your Bush/McCain comparison is, but Bush has won two Presidential elections. If Cameron can deliver the British equivalent, I shall be satisfied.
155 - Playing both sides, Andrea! How very machiavellian of you!
156. I’m learning from you, Master Matlock.
Now I only need to have John O back on my bag. He could always be useful.
A Story you’ll enjoy Andrea. A friend of my father’s went to school with Bob Marshall Andrews, and went to a dinner at which BMA was the guest speaker. BMA got so drunk that he actually fell asleep while he was giving his speech.
Given the momentum behind DC, Alistair, I’m not surprised. I hope he does well, but I think we will have chosen the second-best candidate come December 6th.
157 - Jolly good. Though Mrs Matlock would caution you against learning too much from me… ‘Bad habits’, she would say.
158. Sean, thanks for this story. Sadly your friend didn’t knock BMA on his head…….
160. but I’ll learn only them. Otherwise what’s the point?
159 - Fair enough. Naturally, I disagree with you but that is our democratic privilege. The biggest relief will come simply from having this ‘interminable contest’ (to quote Icarus) behind us and in allowing us to get on with the real business at hand in taking on the government and exploiting their divisions.
159. Sean, who’s the best one in your opinion? DD?
162.”with the real business at hand in taking on the government”
actually I thought you’ve perenially delegated this job to Glenda.