Cameron gets a good press after the Paxman grilling
November 18th, 2005-
Betting price set to tighten even further
The heavy betting in recent days on David Cameron winning the Tory leadership should continue this morning after getting a pretty good press following his combative 
interview with Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight.
In the Times, under the headline “Paxman’s cocktail of rudeness fails to shake Cameron” Ann Treneman amusingly describes the opening when Cameron was asked if he knew what a “Pink Pussy was”. She goes on “…Dave relaxed (always a mistake). “Oh, that’s a drink. And that is all Paxman needed. For these were not just drinks. They were an outrage! Jugs of pink pussy are being sold for £8 in bars owned by a company of which Dave used to sit on the board. London was awash with crime and pink pussies were involved! What did Dave have to say about that? Dave soothed us with a lullaby about how important it was to create safe cities. Paxo interrupted him: “A drink containing white rum, Malibu, strawberry liqueur, grenadine and cream! Dave did not say the obvious thing — i.e. “Pass the sickbag” — but instead demanded: “What’s the question?” And then we knew that we had a fight on our hands. Dave was showing what he was made of. He was standing up to the Big Sneer. “
Andy Smith in the Indpendent reveals that right up to a few hours before the recording that Cameron team was fighting with the programme over where it should take place. They objected to the first planned venue - a hotel - because it was “too baronial” and would play on the idea that their man was “a toff”. Of the discussion itself Smith observes: “The interview revealed he was able to withstand intense questioning. He made a number of good-humoured complaints about Paxman’s continual interruptions. On one occasion he offered a deal: “Let me have two sentences, and then you can interrupt.” But having competed two sentences without interruption, Mr Cameron could not resist adding, “and one more thing, if I may”.
The Telegraph suggests that “Mr Cameron launched a clearly pre-planned attack on Paxman’s aggressive style to counter the interviewer’s questioning” On the drugs issue the report notes “Although there was some ambiguity about the exchanges with the BBC Newsnight interrogator, Mr Cameron, 39, appeared to survive without making an explicit admission and stuck to his line that politicians had the right to keep private their past before entering politics.”
On Cameron’s approach to the interview the Guardian reports “Mr Cameron also turned the tables on Paxman, telling him: “This is the trouble with these interviews, Jeremy. You come in, sit someone down and treat them like they are some cross between a fake or a hypocrite. You give no time to anyone to answer any of your questions. It does your profession no favours at all and it’s no good for political discourse.”
The best Cameron price you can get is 0.08/1 on the betting exchanges. This will tighten today as his victory looks even more certain.
Mike Smithson
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I saw the interview and I’m pleased it’s been received in this way. Paxman’s tone and constant interrupting do n’t really shed any light and just gain sympathy for the interviewee.
So that’s the leadership contest done and dusted.
Time to move on to Canada?
Though I am a Davis man, I glad someone got one over the obnoxious Paxo. As DC looks like the winner, it wouldn’t have done us any good if Paxo had skewered him either.
2 - Has the government there been brought down down yet Peter, if not what do you think the timescale is. Still looks like it could be another hung parliament especially as the CPC have allowed Stephen Harper to remain leader for so long.
Almost all commentaries on the Paxo interview mention that it appears that some of DC’s remarks were prepared beforehand. Shock!
This is seen as alien in the manner of Flanders and Swan:
They’ve simply no notion of playing the game,
The argue with umpires, they cheer when they’ve won,
And they practice beforehand, which spoils all the fun.
It’s another case showing you cannot win with the press. Prepare beforehand and you are a bounder, don’t do it and you are a lazy git.
In fact it is a great relief to know that we are about to elect a leader that is not only voter friendly but a professional, too.
I am sure he was delighted to be grilled on the drug issue….he has been dealing with this for weeks and must be comfortable with it…as the front runner he has avoided going into detail so is much harder to pin down…a bit like early Blair…Davis had no choice but to go for the “substance over style” approach so get hammered on detail…
Cameron has nothing at all to say but says it well….is comments on the Welsh assembly were hilarious yesterday…a masterpiece in cliches and vacuous non-sense …after reading his comments am no wiser as to what his views are on the assembly…other than abolition might not be a good idea (note might) …..as he been clear on any single issue about what his views are? Still the all things to everyone worked for Blair……
Giving the near certainty of the result what do you reckon about the makeup of his top team.
Shadow Chancellor - George Osbourne
Shaadow Home Secretary - Liam Fox
Shadow Foreign Secretary - William Hague
Only problem is that David Davis has to be found a seat at the table. Perhaps he would accept Party Chairman again. Although i think its possible he may just decide to argue from the backbenchs.
A possibility for Chairman or more likely Vice-Chairman is Ed Vaisey. He young, good looking, looks normal (very important to the electorate), and very media savvy.
Who would your dream team be?
Its still early and there aren’t too many posts yet - however I can envisage what will come from the blue corner. Can I suggest to anyone of an orange or red hue that we all pack up and go home / take up some alternative occupation (now where did I put my rowing kit?) because with Cammie in place the Tories will romp home in 2009/10. The defeat of Paxman proves it. Mike might as well close down the site, too, because there won’t be any value betting on such a dead cert.
8 - Tabman - their would have been plenty comment fron Labour and the Lib Dems if Cameron had done badly in the interview. Maybe some Tories are getting a bit carried away with how well they think DC is doing but at the same time I have not heard anyone from the red/orange corner other than Mike himself treat Cameron with anything but disdain.
Personally I think he’s the best person we have for the job. That’s not to say I’m taking anything for granted - I’m not saying we’ll win the next election I’m just saying that with DC we have a chance of winning which I don’t think would have been the situation with any of the other candidates, other than perhaps Ken Clarke.
7. I don’t think Osborne will be kept as shadow Chancellor. It would look a bit like keeping him there because he’s his best friend. I would think Hague as shadow chancellor (if he’s prepared to give up some directorships of course), Fox and Davis to stay as they are with Osbourne perhaps at Education.
I agree that Cameron did well. As a LD, I am not overtly worried at this stage, but I enjoyed the exchange. I think the Tories will be happy with it. I though Jeremy did expose the fact that Cameron seems to have changed his views alot, or has voted against his beliefs. When he said that he had thought about tuition fees since the election, a fairly neutral friend of mine said ‘what, so he didn’t think about it before he voted with the party?’. Overall though, very good by DC.
BTW, I don’t get all this annoyance at Paxman. People watch his because he is so hard on politicians. They hate being interviewed by him because of how he is. If he had suddenly said ‘oh sorry Mr Howard, I think I’ve asked this question enough now’ and moved on, it wouldn’t have been the classic TV moment of Howard’s career. I for one love seeing a politician grilled by someone who can actually do it well. Notice that most other TV presenters try to be Paxman, but fail and just look silly.
Cameron 1, Paxo 0. Cameron had well rehearsed lines and tactics to turn the tables on Paxman. Unlike, DD he seems to have surrounded himself with some talented people. And, just as important, he can deliver them and pull the whole thing off.
Thought the bit about allowing two sentences without interruption was amusing…and then to say “If I may add”.
Do Paxo good to have a fight for a change.
3 … And even as a Labour supporter so am I. I hope this is the beginning of the end for this pompous, obnoxious turd. Well one can dream anyway.
not a bad performance at all, tories will have been cheered. he was all over the place on policy changes, but that won’t matter in 4 years time. i thought paxo let him off a couple of times, but cameron held his own more than adequately. his answers on licensing laws almost defied belief though - basically he agreed with the govt, but not on the timing - completely contrary to everything his party has been saying for the last year!! he also lied about gay adoption. but, fair play, a decent performance…leagues ahead of Davis.
7 - do you have to ask us PBer’s, Dave?
I wouldn’t think Billy will be able to be Shadow Foreign Secretary after his performance on HIGNFY when he was all Frogs this and Krauts that.
p.s. vaizey for party chairman? bring it on! he couldn’t even manage to do his PMQ properly on Wednesday. he’s a total lightweight!
I’m not sure about Osbourne. The fact that Howard appointed him as Shadow Chancellor may give Cameron the political coverage he needs to keep him there. Also he seems to be at the forefront of the research going into a possible flat tax rate.
On the negative side he’s a toff, which is an image that ‘Dave’ (man of the people) Cameron may be keen to distance himself from. In that scenario the Education Department is a great place for Osbourne to prove his wares. Also having him as Shadow Chancellor invites the Tony/Gordon comparison which is likely to become a noose around Camerons neck. And the Shadow Chancellorship is possibily the only position that could tempt Hague back onto the front bench.
Hague in my opinion is the Tories best assett. If his decides to come back then he has calculated that they have a decent chance at the next election. If he doesn’t come back then thats a big slap in Camerons face - even if it doesn’t appear so at the time.
15 - I’d forgot about HIGNFY. fair point.
Hague is the Tories best asset … since Ann Widdicombe.
Same kind of beast - loved by all sides of the Westminster Village for being slightly amusing and, well, different, but a complete laughing stock amongst the wider public.
Next you’ll be suggesting Boris Johnson for Shadow Leader of the House …
19 - I’m sure that I remember a poll done before the 2001 (IIRC it was for Channel 4) election that said Anne Widdecombe was the only leading Tory who would have improved our standing in the polls.
19. If that’s what people would vote for.
I thought Paxman’s decision to lead on Cameron’s involvement in a pub company was a mistake. Very few people are prohibitionists and it was all to easy for Cameron to say, “responsible business, responsible drinking”. It was quite a good ad for the bars in question too as Paxo mentioned their excellent offers on cocktails at least a dozen times.
Raising the u-turn on of tuition fees was more effective and I am surprised he did not spend longer on the subject.
Overall, I completely agree with the analysis that it was a poor Paxman performance and Cameron survived it with a degree of comfort.
An excellent performance from Cameron by the sounds of it. I missed the programme as I was out last night - can I catch glimpses/repeats of it anywhere?
In terms of the future shadow cabinet I still wouldn’t want Liam Fox as Foreign Secretary. He had a good leadership contest but I can’t help feeling he has far more appeal with the Tory faithful than the wider public. I’d far rather see him back as party chairman with Malcolm Rifkind as Foreign Secretary. It would also be nice to see Caroline Spellman get a decent job I’ve always felt she’s been under-promoted within the Shadow Cabinet.
23. Here it is Julian http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/default.stm
20 You are joking? If true, it must have had a seriously flawed methodology. Remember how within hours of the polls closing in 2001 she launched her campaign, with a series of media interviews, only for the whole thing to collapse by the weekend - one of the shortest ever bids for leadership, and a serious disappointment to all us Labour bods. Still, you very generously gave us IDS.
19 - You wait and see what happens if Hague takes a portfolio. the press will be the key. If they sell the story as ‘Tories have used up so many leaders that they now have to recycle them back into the shadow cabinet’ and use it as a story about the party rather than the person then it could hurt him. However, i think the reporting of his return will be well received by the public and raise his popularity with the ‘people’. But my big fear about bringing Hague back is that he will upstage Cameron and provide ammunition for a critique on Cameron. The argument goes that Tories cannibalise their young by forcing them into the jungle before they are ready. And lets remember that Hague had actually served in a cabinet role (albeit Welsh Secretary) when he became leader. the expected good performance from Hague now will pose a lot of questions for Cameron when he eventually falters. Canmeron may not welcome the comparisons.
23 - You can watch in on http://www.bbc.co.uk. There is a link under the Politics secction of the news
25. Thanks Woody
Re DC price set to tighten even further this morning. You’d have thought so, but 1.08 still to be had. Any explanation?
24 - “I can’t help feeling he has far more appeal with the Tory faithful than the wider public” This is true, which is why i fancy him as Shadow Home Secretary. His instincts on Law and Order will sit well with the general public. Like it or not we still live in a ‘hang ‘em and bang ‘em’ society.
24. I know what you mean about Fox (far too right wing for my tastes) but I’ve always thought that shadow foreign secretary is one of those roles where you are pretty much hidden away. I don’t really remember Micheal Ancram ever being very prominent. It may help us repair our relaionship with the republicians as well. If the Democrats win the next elections, then he can be moved.
30 Where? Channel 4 news reported last night that no further bets were being taken after someone had tried to place a bet of £50,000.
20 - As I say I can’t really remeber much about it but I’m sure it was mentioned on Channel 4 during the elections.
26 - Just had a look - it was a Mori Poll on 3rd June 2001. Widders would have polled 31% to 28% for Portillo and Clarke and 27% for Hague! Labour were 49%-50%!
Betfair price on Cameron almost down to 1.07 now
2 Results from last night’s council byelections
Kettering BC Lab Hold Lab 674 Con 362 Lib Dem 71
2003 - 3 seats Con 629,512,506 Lab 617,579,555 Lib -
North Herts DC Lib Dem hold Lib Dem 331 Con 324 Lab 31
2003 Lib Dem 363 Con 322 Lab -
Quick bit of by-election news - Labour easily held a seat in Kettering and the Libs held onto a closely contested seat in North Herts by 7 votes down from 41 last time.
37.Another good result for Labour in Kettering. I think it’s the second since the GE’s defeat.
I still think Cameron’s a lightweight, but he came across relatively well - certainly better than Paxman.
I think that interview was designed to enable Paxman to use the words ’slippery nipple’ and ‘pink pussy’ throughout the first five minutes…a bit strange really.
37 - Beat me to it Mark! Not to many by-elections today I don’t think.
37-39. Mark/MAx. Labour did not stand in North Herts last time, right?
I felt that DC’s performance was little better than adequate, with the flannelling and vagueness becoming a bit irritating at times. Paxman seemed to me - if anything - a little subdued.
Rather than focus on Cameron what about Paxman? This was a big defeat for him last night and you can see other interviewees following the DC technique.
He always seems to start these set pieces with something shocking - like last week’s “shit” label on Davis - with the intention, no doubt, of establishing an early dominance.
37. Ticehurst & Etchingham Ward by election of Rother District Council:
Robert Victor Elliston (Conservative) 696 votes
Mary Elizabeth Varrall (Liberal Democrat) 329 votes.
Any feeling on the likely % that Cameron will get?
42 Richard. I thought that Cameroon put in a pretty decent performance, but would agree that at times Paxo looked bored silly, as if he was warming up for a full first night performance after a dull dress rehearsal.
BTW my vote rigging trip to Brum was most successful, expect some mighty gains for the Kashmir Jacobite Front at the next elections.
agree with oxonian that hague is regarde with fondness by the public but also as a joke politically. osborne should be shifted to something lower profile like DTI as he may be clever but he comes across as weird. fox doesn’t have the intellect for a major portfolio - his talents are best suited to the chairman role if anything. cameron should make a real effort to have some women in his shadow cabinet and for taht reason i’d have spelman somewhere - health? and may in one of the top jobs. btw vaizey is not good looking.
46.good canvassing return from Brum , Jack?
47.”cameron should make a real effort to have some women in his shadow cabinet and for taht reason i’d have spelman somewhere ”
So who? May and Spelman for sure, then? Eleonor Laing or Julie Kirkbride? Any others?
From PA
RESULTS
Kettering Borough - St Marys: Lab 674, C 362, Lib Dem 71. (May 2003 - Three seats C 629, Lab 617, 579, 555, C 512, 506). Lab hold. Swing 12.6% C to Lab.
North Hertfordshire District - Baldock East: Lib Dem 331, C 324, Lab 31. (May 2003 - Lib Dem 363, C 322). Lib Dem hold. Swing 2.4% Lib Dem to C.
Penwith District - Penzance Central: C 223, Lib Dem 208, Lab 195, Mebyon Kernow 92, Ind 38. (June 2004 - Two seats Lib Dem 684, C 534, Lib Dem 508, Lab 264). C gain from Lib Dem. Swing 3.2% Lib Dem to C.
Rother District - Ticehurst and Etchingham: C 696, Lib Dem 329. (May 2003 - Two seats C 663, 633, Lib Dem 542, 542). C hold. Swing 13.4% Lib Dem to C.
Wycombe District - Chiltern Rise: C 357, Lib Dem 316, Lab 80. (May 2003 - C 538, 510, Lib Dem 426, Ind 407, Lib Dem 399). C hold. Swing 1.4% C to Lib Dem.
46 - Hope you had a nice time up north Jack. You’ve luckily avoided the really freezing weather was -4 on Thursday morning. Doesn’t make getting up for work any easier! At least their’ll be a nice open fire in the local tonight.
41 - You are correct Labour did not stand last time nor the Lib Dems in Kettering .
52. if the 31 Lab voters (or at least most of them,because as you said in the past some could spoil the ballott)) voted Libdems last time, the swing is less big than what it could appear.
I am a Lib Dem and find Cameron incredibly likeable. He is certainly the most likeable Tory leader (or potential leader) since John Major and perhaps even more so than him. In fact I think this may end up being his problem.
He is a good at working the media yes but he doesn’t have that much grit and steel to his character. To really make an impact people have to either love or hate you - Thatcher did that, as did Wilson and as has Blair (the three most media savy PMs). The fact that I am a Lib Dem but don’t mind Cameron speaks volumes I feel!
I’ve heard Vaizey has earnt a nickname since entering Parliament amongst fellow members. I believe it is abbreviated as FUWOS - you have to agree that he has “filled out” quite a lot since entering the Commons.
48 Andrea. An excellent days work Andrea, only hampered by my inability to understand the local dialect. However this difficulty was soon overcome by my employment of Jasper Carrot, a couple of Aston Villa heavies and the 24 stone canteen manageress at BBC Pebble Mill ….. apparently her dumplings and deep fried Scotch Eggs go before her !! …….. sadly her guzzling Pale Ale and chomping vast quantities of tripe and onions on the door step had a slightly adverse effect on the voters as I tried to convey the finer points of Jacobite policy on the 90 day detention, torture, trial and execution of Liberal Democrat bar chart usurpers. Nevertheless a good day for democracy me thinks.
56.Jack, now are you back among us full time?
51 Hi Max. Yes I had a great time thanks. The weather was reasonable, and we spent two really nice days on the Moray Firth coast, they really do get some unseasonably good weather there, I understand it’s the latent effect of the Gulf Stream.
I have to say the antics of the Scottish Tories kept me amused and boy the Jam Tarts are doing their best to blow it ……. do you think both sides can pull things round ?? …… I rather think the latter stand more chance than the former ….. what is with the Scottish Tories, they do seem to have a collective death wish every few years or so !!
57 Andrea. Well …… hardly “full time” ….. Mrs Jack W might think it ….. although I remain firmly in her good books after agreeing to Christmas in Switzerland before an extended New Year break in Scotland …… let alone a wallet emptying visit to the Edinburgh Salerooms whilst away !!
re 54. I’m surprised that you think that DC “doesn’t have that much grit and steel to his character”. It took a lot of grit and steel last night to tackle Paxman in the way he did - it is just that he stays polite and appears to be non-confrontational.
You don’t have to be agressive to show you have steel.
Re: 58 - I pretty much share your view on this, Doug. There’s not much not to like so far. I only watched a few minutes of the Paxman interview and he looked as though he had been well coached and had the aura of a man who knew the leadership was pretty much his.
That doesn’t make him a great Tory leader or the next Prime Minister. Resonating with Tory voters and the Tory membership is obviously important but it’s his reaction amongst the wider non-Tory electorate that counts. I think the election of a new Tory leader will galvanise all parties, including Labour and the LDs. In the absence of an immediate by-election test, it will be a case of anecdotal poll-watching etc.
I don’t detect so far a huge groundswell for Cameron out there - yes, there is disillusionment with Blair but again not as much as some Tories might hope. I would want some clear and distinct signs that Cameron is a “different Tory” which in my mind means less of the continual whingeing and complaining we saw from Howard and IDS, less talk about tax and spending cuts and some positive messages on decentralisation and an acceptance of some elements of the Blair agenda. To listen to Davis, you think he wants to turn the clock back to 1997. Cameron is much cleverer than that - I see elements of the Republican Party’s compassionate conservatism agenda but that doesn’t mean I think a flat tax or tax cuts for the wealthy are a good idea. I am of the view that Cameron and his coterie (Osborne, Vaizey, Gove and others) are essentially British neo-conservatives. For those looking for a foreign policy less wedded to Washington and especially Republican Washington, I suspect there will be disappointment. The irony is that by 2009 we could have a Democrat in the White HOuse and the neo-con agenda could be on the way out. Whether Cameron would have any empathy with Mark Warner let alone Hillary C. is open to question.
Re: 50 - thank you for this, Richard. A quick word on Penwith, an area with which I have some affinity havuing spent a lot of time in St Ives and Penzance over the years. I’ve worked with the local LDs and while Andrew George is a wonderful MP and would, as I’ve said before, be my idea of the ideal LD leader after Kennedy, the local LDs in St Ives never cease to amaze me. They ducked a perfectly winnable seat in Hayle South last week (they polled 35% in 2004) and have now contrived to lose Penzance Central by 15 votes on what looks a very low turnout. Penzance Central is one of those curiousities, a genuine 3-way marginal and with Mebyon Kernow getting involved, it’s always hard to predict. The LDs could take control of Penwith if they ever got their act together but they always seem able to get the vote out at County and General Elections.
58 - To be honest it’s not been as damaging as may of us had feared. Partly because none of the other paries want to put the boot in for fear of having their own expenses looked at. Got rid of Monteith and got Annabell Goldie as leader both of which are not bad things. And the result in Murrayfield helped to allay fears that it would cause us too much damage in David McLetchie’s own back yard. So the activists are surprisigly upbeat. And it’s better it’s happening now rather than in 2003 when we had two MSP’s defect a couple of weeks before the election!
As I say the 2007 elections are still some way off but I expect modest progress but no great shake up in Scottish politics.
Tricky away game up at Pittodrie on Saturday but Aberdeen haven’t been great so hopefully we’ll pick up another three points to keep things ticking over.
62 Max. I agree with your analysis. Although I know there is continuing sniping at Goldie. Some on the right still regard her with suspicion and wonder why she doesn’t have done with it and join the Lib Dems !! Talking of which the wretched yellow peril continue to lead a charmed life north of the border and largely seem to get the benefit of the coalition arrangement and seem immune to the brickbats that come its way. I wonder if they’ll outpoll the SNP in 2007 as in the GE ??
Good luck in the Granite City ….. Aberdeen are a unpredicable bunch presently ….. you’re as likely to win 4-0 as draw 3-3 !!
I think that Stodge - 61- is right. I do not detect a big ground-swell of support for the Tories because of Cameron. He’s got a long hard struggle ahead and progress will be slow - but i think he is very aware of the problems facing the party and how to deal with them.
The big test for all three parties will be next May’s local elections - which because the London boroughs are up will get more national media attention than usual. A poorish Labour performance could impact on Blair’s departure time-table while a poor Lib Dem performance could put pressure on Kennedy. A poor Tory performance would be devastating for DC.
62. Did you cry when you heard Graham Rix had been appointed. I did.
Quite a remarkable Labour success at Kettering, and they did well in Penwith/Penzance too - not far off from winning the seat from a poor third. The Tories are clearly making progress at the expense of the LibDems, though. There’s been an odd dearth of polls since the terrorism vote, but I think we’ll see Labour and Tories both doing OK when we get one.
I can’t help feeling pleased that the Tories are picking a leader who seems to agree with a lot of our policies - if the Tories endorse no significant tax cuts and scrap the patients’ passport, accept tuition fees repayable by higher-earners and drop the hostility to immigrants, we’ll get a more sensible debate on means rather than ends. Whether Cameron turns out quite like that remains to be seen, though.
Two BREAKING NEWS departures :
Martin Newland has left as Editor of the Daily Telegraph and Roy Keane has left Man Utd, both with immediate effect !!
Perhaps they’re going to swop jobs !!
Re 33 You could get 1.08 on Betfair most of the morning…amazed me, though I didn’t have the funds to get on. Now down to 1.06. Why this change took well over 12 hours since Paxman interview I know not - surely there should either have been quick correction after DC makes it over final hurdle or the odds are pretty much unchanged from yesterday. Can Mike or others shed light on this pattern in the betting?
NEWS : Tip for professional punters among you : Keane leaves Man U - 10k @ 1.17 to be had on Chelsea on Betfair.
66 Nick Palmer. God help us if Cameroon turns the Tories into a Blair Lite Party ….. one is too many !! ….. but I rather fear he might and we’ll see the two main parties dancing on a pin head over social and ecomonic policy.
69. I think the distinction may by an authoritian labour party and a more liberal Tory party. Long way to go yet though.
That makes 9 gains from the Lib Dems since the start of August, and just 2 losses to them.
I don’t know whether Cameron will be Blair lite; I hope not.
70 Woody. The difficulty with a “more liberal Tory party” is the Fox wing of the party and the Taliban faction, who seem to popup at the most inappropriate times and try to wrench the Tories back to the right.
There is one area where Cameron and the likes of Warner can agree, namely a compassionate, semi-faith-based approach to moral issues. As I recall, Caz is a bit of an evo, isn’t he?
The problem with a more liberal Tory party is that most members aren’t liberals.
71 Hi Sean, did the Widders bash go well ? …. I’m afraid I didn’t get back from my sally to Brum until 2am.
All I’ve seen and heard so far is that Cameroon is determined not to make the mistake of Hague, IDS and MH and drift to the right after flirting with the centre. However by pushing and keeping the Tories in the centre, the voters may just stay with the managers they know and not the untried imitation ….. but then what electorally viable alternative is there for the Tories ??
65 - I wasn’t best pleased! It’ll still depend who takes over as general manager. He does carry a lot of personal baggage but it’s noticable that the fans saying he shouldn’t be here because we’re a ‘family club’ are the same ones who are happy to sing about being ‘up to our knees in Fenian blood’! Obviously what he did was appa;ing but he’s done his time and everyone deserves a second chance.
63 - Jack I’ll be very surprised if the SNP don’t come second. Allthough in saying that they may well continue to decline and will come under particular pressure in Perth and in Ochil (which Labour have serious hopes of retaking) as well as suffering from the age old problem of a lack of funds. They do tend to poll significantly better at Holyrood than Westminster and the two by-elections still showed they were the main challengers in central Scotland at least. Of course the dearth of Scottish Opinion polls makes this very hard to predict.
One interesting contest is in Moray where the SNP nomination is being fought over by another member (Annabel) of the Ewing clan and one of Alex Salmond’s close supporters. Their is talk that Salmond will stand in Gordon but it’s hard to see him winning it from the Libs.
Interesting news from Working Lunch, reporting that the bookies have had a poor year all round. Hurrah for us!
Re: 65 - Thanks for the kind word, Mike. I think a lot will depend on expectations and perceptions. Even if the Tories do well, how much of that will be explained away by “mid term blues” or an anti-government vote ? As history shows and we well know, winning local votes doesn’t necessarily translate into Parliamentary success. For example, the Tories swept Richmond in 2002 but failed to win either of the Borough’s Parliamentary seats in May. Cameron can’t simply rely on an anti-government “protest” not only because he won’t be the only beneficiary (LDs, Respect etc) but also because that may not translate into seats later on.
I suspect Labour are already preparing for losses - as an east Londoner, it will be fascinating to see how Respect fares in Newham and elsewhere.
As for the LDs, I think they could lose Sutton whereas the Tories are much closer than the seat numbers suggest but could pick up Richmond once again. They could also do well against Labour elsewhere.
It was very enjoyable Jack, and we made over £1,500 from it.
I thought the Paxo interview went well, though I also think DC should be careful about confronting interviewers - it could come accross as irritable if he’s not careful.
As for Shadow cabinet, how about:
Shadow Foreign Secretary - George Osbourne
Shadow Home Secretary - David Davis
Shadow Chancellor - Hague or Ken Clarke
Can anybody explain why it is Scotsman Gordon Brown making the annoucement about the study on England going for the 2018 World Cup?
81 because we run your country mike
Huge amounts of money going on Cameron this morning. Price tightening like a, erm… ok I’ll skip any metaphor.
Has Newland really quit as Torygraph editor? Maybe I should apply…
re Betfair prices. These are often stay slightly higher than bookie prices because punters who have backed at higher prices often like to cover themselves completely by paying at this stage in a market. Thus by laying at 1.06 you would get 94% of your potential winnings without any possibility of a loss. Some punters find this attractive.
It will end up at 1.02 or 1.01.
76 Max. You’d have thought that the SNP would do well in 2007, but they do seem to flatter to deceive in elections and the last GE must have come as a shock and they are stuggling to make an impact presently. On balance though I think you’re correct, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Lib Dems run the SNP pretty close.
What realistic FPTP targets do the Tories have ? …. or will it be a matter of consolidation on the list.
79 Sean. Well done Sean …. £1500 from a raffle !! ….. or was it the £10 on the door for the male stripper !! …… I hope you had plenty of Johnsons baby oil !!!!!!!!!!
82 mac. LOL !!!!!
45- I think it could be an 80% share of the vote for Cameron now. I know most people have voted, but except for 2 people, every othe remember I have spoken to has voted Cameron!!
Is it set in stone now Hague is going to return to the front bench? The whispers I have heard suggest so.
every other member, that was supposed to say!!!!
81 - More to the point why was he talking about the last time ‘we’ hosted the world cup. Even as a die hard Unionist even my Britishness only stretches so far. And Tessa Jowell was on 5 live this morning saying how all of Britain celebrates when any of the Home Nations win - I wonder if she’s ever visited Scotland.
76 - FPTP targets will probably be Perth where the candidate Liz Smith is allready in place, Eastwood (bit of a long shot) and at least one of the Borders seats (TE&L is a very interesting 4 way battle with only 1500 odd votes splitting all four parties). Neither of the Labour MSP’s who lost in Edinburgh in 2003 are standing again but the leader of Ed. city council will probably stand and lose (to my near neighbour Mike Pringle) for Labour in Edinburgh South.
For the SNP it will be interesting to see if Nicola Sturgeon runs again in Govan and whether they can come back in Galloway & UN. Other than that Edinburgh Central should be interesting as will be Inverness East etc and Strathkelvin and Bearsden. Gordon could be interesting if Salmond chooses to run their.
87 Maximus. I think that 80% is too high for Cameroon but the higher than 66% being offered a few days ago was a steal.
The Hague return is interesting. My understanding is that he is tempted, but concerned that his baggage may harm the coronation of Cameroon and his outside interests are bringing home the bacon big time, and he’d have to give them up if he returned to the front bench.
72,74. Most labour members are socialists but that hasn’t stopped the party becoming right wing. Cameron is saying change to win. If that means anything, then it will surely be more socially liberal. The tory members won’t be able to complain because that will be the man they voted in.
85.”it the £10 on the door for the male stripper !! ……”
where? when? how?
89 Max. Thanks for that. Consider yourself the PB.Com 2007 Scottish Elections Chief Political Correspondent …… if that’s ok with Mike !!
80 - I think Osbourne has been over-promoted too early although the Foreign Office might suit simply on the basis that it is not a demotion but he suffers terribly by comparison with Brown at the moment whereas if you put him up against Straw that’s okay (although it plays into Menzies Campbell’s hands). He should simply sack Davis. I know what they say about tents and urination, but the problem with Davis is that he’ll do it all over you whether you invite him inside or not.
Hi All,
Flying visit ….
Stodge @ 78
Bexley (definitely) & Croydon (probably) swinging blue too in May !!
Regards all round
92 Andrea. You missed out I’m afraid ! The Bushey Conservative Naturist Society held their own …… annual genital meeting last night. There was plenty of new policies up front and much discussion of a full frontal assault on NudeLabour ! …. Adam Rickett was the guest speaker but in the end Widders made a dramatic entry in her fleshings !!!!!!
90 - Maybe I am getting a bit over excited with 80%. I see what you mean about Hague. I hope he does return to the front bench, he is such a favourite with members. I would feel secure if he did return that all his ‘outside’ interests were postponed. I doubt he would be arrogant enough to harbour unsuitable activities while in such a position. I dont know if his ‘Tory-boy’ tag could harm Cameron, I think it was overdone before and people would loose interest now. Oh well, we will have to see.
Re fantasy Shadow Cabinets, what about Fox as deputy leader, fulfilling the same sort of role as Prescott does for the Labour Party: popular with the grassroots but kept away from substantive policy making.
I’d agree that Osbourne should be demoted to, say, Education or Health: Hague or Clarke would make the Cameron ticket more “balanced” and if the leader is relatively inexperienced you need a heavyweight number two to lend credibility to the top team.
93 - I can’t promise to be very impartial - a kind of Scottish Fox News if you like! Breaking news - Scots Tories to sweep Glasgow!
93 - If you want to know about how the Scots LD’s are doing then Dan is usually pretty well informed as he originally hails from the beutiful city of Edinburgh!
For those particulary interested in by-elections, since the May GE there have been 174 council by-elections. 60 of these resulted in a seat changing hands.
The Conservatives held 54 of the 68 they were defending and gained a further 23
Labour held 30 out of 44 and gained 15
Liberals held 23 out of 37 and gained 13
Independent/Others held 7 out of 25 and gained 9
Share of vote (compared to last fought)
Con 32.2% (29.3%)
Lab 26.7% (29.1%)
Lib 28.0% (25.1%)
Ind/Oth 13.1% (16.5%)
Difficult to draw conclusions from one by-election, but 174 show more of a trend.
101 - at first glance the trend seems to be Tories winning seats from independents but with Labour and the Lib Dems more or less static. Neither good nor bad news for any of the parties I’d have thought.
101 Andy. Many thanks for those stats. Essentially the Tories and the Lib Dems up a few points and Labour and the Indies down a few. As for the Cameroon effect if any, we’ll all have to wait until the Spring to assess any early trends.
99 Max. “Scots Tories to sweep Glasgow”
I fear only if McCletchie gets community service with a broom and bin !!
Max, please no Fox News coverage …… try Sky News ….. or my own Jacobite News Network …… never knowingly undersold ….. although in the best journalistic traditional often under the table !!
103 - I hope you’re not suggesting that the second city of the Empire is in need of a scrub! Allthough having been through to see a friend last weekend the smell of the subway leaves a lot to be desired!
Funny how different the city is from Edinburgh - excellent shopping, great night life and the city centre is really nice but there’s still real problems with jobs and housing in some of the outlying estates.
94 - but at least Davis has one-and-a-half Labour scalps which is more than most of the opposition front bench. In addition, Cameron should be anxious to avoid the plotting which plagued Hague and IDS (though now that Portillo has gone and a moderniser will have the leadership maybe that will be OK; perhaps best to lock Francis Maude in a cellar just in case).
There may be a case for using Ken Clarke in the way Mrs Thatcher relied on Willie Whitelaw, perhaps with a party rather than frontbench role so he can hang on to some directorships.
104 Max. Yes I fear that some of our countrymen believe that subways are Scottish underground pissoires !! …… especially so after chucking out time .
I see Prince Charles is suing Associated Newspaper for libel …… it wont come to court sadly ….. although it would be nice to see the Daily “Hate” Mail taken down a peg or several dozen !!
106 - Let he who is without sin and all that Jack!
100 - thanks Max - and I support the right team as well (the green one!).
I can’t see Salmond making much impact in Gordon to be honest. Just as Kenyon Wright made little impact in Banff and Buchan. It’s possible that it’s part of his battle against the Ewings. I’d be surprised if the Lib Dems didn’t pick up Inverness, but the other seats are very difficult to predict as the Scottish and Westminster boundaries start diverging (for example Strathkelvin and Bearsden is a very different prospect to East Dunbartonshire - and is complicated by the hospital lot). I’d guess the reverse is probably true for the Tories with Eastwood being a better prospect than East Renfrewshire.
Vote share is going to be crucial - otherwise what you gain under FPTP you lose off the list (look at Lothian last time). It’s also possible that the Lib Dems could outpoll the nats in the constituencies (but not on the list) - it then becomes very difficult to say who comes where.
I’m not convinced how marginal TE&L is - the Lib Dems had a new candidate last time (I believe) and incumbency is a major factor in places like the Borders. You may remember it was a supposed ‘target’ seat for Labour after 1997 when Moore took over from Steel, but returned to ‘form’ in 2001.
78 - Stodge - I’m interested you think Sutton is a possible Tory gain - any evidence (or are you just raising Mr Willis’s hopes?). I’d be surprised if the Lib Dems didn’t hold on relatively comfortably.
108 Reverend Max. At my age I don’t stray too far from vitreous china ! ….. talking of which it appears that Chuck is suing the Mail group over the theft of his China diaries …… string up the thieving bas**rds I say …. and not the libel case I was expecting.
66. Nick P, I don’t think you should be allowed to get away with saying the Tory party under Howard (or IDS for that matter) has showed ‘hostility to immigrants’. That’s a tendentious remark, bordering on the grossly insulting.
What the Tory party has showed, at most, is a ‘hostility to immigration at too high a level’. A very different thing. Please withdraw that statement - unless you can actually cite an example of a Tory shadow minister showing ‘hostility to immigrants’.
Dan @ 109. I think the Liberals should hold Sutton with a reduced majority. Prob lose in a few places like Carshalton Beeches, where the Conservative candidate in the General Election is standing, and no doubt wherever Mr Willis choses to run, but then again Labour are (sadly) likely to be wiped off the map in Sutton. We may have to wait till 2010 for a change of control.
111 seanT. Is that post ironic ?!?!? ….. someone pass the dog whistle !
[76] I find it difficult to beleive that Salmond would stand in Gordon. Despite geographical proximity, and the occasional swapping of boundaries between Gordon and Moray and Banff Buchan. The bulk of Gordon is quite a bit different from Banff/Buchan- richer, better educated and many more incomers to the area. Despite the different boundaries between Westminster & Holyrood it is fair to point out that the SNP were fourth in Gordon in 2005.
109 - Without wishing to become too bogged down in the TE&L contest I just wonder if incumbency is as important when you are contesting seats against sitting ‘list’ MSP’s. Christine Graham of the SNP is probably as well known as Jeremy Purvis locally, if not more so given that she has been around for a while. It may be of course that list candidates won’t be allowed to contest constituencies which would make it very interesting to see where Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Salmond and Murdo Fraser choose to stand.
114 - It does seem an odd choice. I suspect a lot will depend on who gets the nod in Moray. If it’s Richard Lochead then Salmond will probably get the one Nat seat on the North East list if not then he may well have to win a constituency.
is there a market in who will lead the tories at the next election?
114 - Sorry James O I should also have cited you as another well informed Scots Lib Dem at 100!
111. No, not ironic. I didn’t hear any Tory shadow Ministers say, in the last election, ‘we don’t like immigrants’, let alone ‘we don’t want any filthy Poles’, or ‘for God’s sake, stop the Ethiopians coming in’. That’s what I would construe as ‘hostility to immigrants’.
I’ve noticed that Nick Palmer often slips these nasty little remarks into his ostensibly fairminded posts. But then again he is a New Labour MP who voted for 90 day detention, so what do you expect.
That said - I am sure Nick is, in person, a very fair and decent chap, when he’s not being a professional politician, and he does bring some valuable insider knowledge to the site. So no flaming, please!
113, I’d draw SeanT’s attention to the ‘What part of send ‘em back don’t you understand Mr Blair?’ adverts placed by Bob Spink in my local newspaper!
118 Responding to your (much) earlier question, it seems likely that the Canadian election will take place over the winter (Jan or Feb) (although I don´t rule out a further deal with the NDP).
I think the same result as last time is a big possiblity, but my feeling is that Paul Martin’s Liberals will advance.
120. Hmm… fairish point. I’d agree that strayed well over the line, if it referred to immigrants. Though I feel sure Spink (I’m not sure, don’t know the case) was referring to failed asylum seekers, no? In which case it’s arguably acceptable, I’d say. The government’s inability to get a grip on asylum is a disgrace, worthy of robust condemnation.
Also, please note I asked NP to cite examples of shadow ministers or official manifesto material evincing this ‘hostility to immigrants’, not Tories I’ve, er, never heard of.
I think an ideal shadow cabinet should look something like this (although I’m not in any way suggesting that this is what we’re going to get)
Leader: Cameron
Deputy: Clarke
Chancellor: Hague
Foreign Secretary: Rifkind
Home Secretary: Fox
Defence Secretary: Davis
Health: Osborne
Education: Willetts
Chairman: Duncan
Work and Pensions: Redwood
Trade and Industry: IDS
Transport: Theresa May
Environment: Damian Green (just to give the Sun something to play with)
Agriculture: Letwin
Deregulation: Dominic Grieve
Northern Ireland: Lansley
119. “But then again he is a New Labour MP who voted for 90 day detention, so what do you expect”
I expect the usual deference, indifference and smug satisfaction over their unusually long stint in government.
Oh, and Boris for Shadow Culture secretary
[121] Despite the potential nailing of M. Chretien, you really have to feel that the Grits are going to fluke another victory in Canada. The “Conservatives” are just not landing the blows- partly a function of the continuing uneasiness that the formerly PC grandees still have with the Prairie Reform/Alliance guys. The NDP remain localised. Unless the Conservatives can regroup in Quebec, as well as maintaining some progress in Ontario, I think a cheeky bet on Mr. Martin to hold on looks like the most lucrative strategy.
Have just received the latest email update from the Cameron Campaign. It reports that four more MPs: Sir Patrick Cormack, Geoffrey Cox, Marc Francois and Christopher Fraser have declared their support for DC.
121/126. The last poll was: Liberal 33%
Conservative 26%
NDP 22%
Bloc Quebecois 13%
128 - For all their crookedness and impropriety, Canadian voters are STILL prepared to vote for the Canadian Liberals? Pass the sickbag, Alice!
129. AHM, they loath liberals, but they feat tories.
http://lfpress.ca/newsstand/News/National/2005/11/18/1312054-sun.html
gingeral - one woman?
duncan?
are you insane?
131. I’ve noticed the absence of Hanky Dinky Dunky.
Not that he’s a essential for a successful shadow cabinet, but he usually provides some fun.
Does anyone know why the Canadians call constituencies “ridings” and shadow ministers “critics”?
[130] The Canadian Tories are such a wierd combination of American style rock ribbed Conservatives (mostly from the West) and more moderate factions, usually from central Canada. The destruction of the PC’s under Kim Campbell (famously reduced to two members- and one of them, Jean Charest, later became the Liberal Premier of Quebec) gave the upper hand to Reforn and therefore the Rock Ribs and -as Stephen Harper keeps proving- made the newly reconstructed Canadian Conservatives unelectable. Looks like it could be back to the drawing board. Mind you, if the NDP did break out (and they may do better in Ontario) then life in Ottawa could get a lot more interesting next spring (and lead to an even deeper freeze in relations with the US).
[133] Riding is an old Saxon word meaning division- as in the West Riding of Yorkshire- Critic surely speaks for itself
.
However these days Ridings in the Parliament of Canada are often called “Constituencies” with “Riding” still used at the Provincial Assembly level. Prime Minister is the Canadian leader, but the Provincial equivelent is the Premier.
Re: 109 & 112: The size of the LD majority belies the fact that the Conservatives have been slowly advancing since they hit rock bottom in 1994 and 1998. I’m not sure Carshalton Beeches exists nay more, it’s called, I believe, Carshalton South. Apart from that, I think the Tories could win both the Wallington Wards. That plus the remaining Sutton South seat would give them 18 and the LDs 33 so it would depend what else happened in Sutton & Cheam.
Despite what Mr Willis would have us believe, the REAL Tory success story in Sutton in May was the performance of Ken Andrew in Carshalton & Wallington, who cut Tom Brake’s majority to just over 1,000 on a 4%+ swing. That’s why I think that although the current Tory holdings in Sutton are in Sutton & Cheam, the real chance of Tory success lies in Carshalton & Wallington. If I could find a bookie willing to offer say 10/1 or bigger on the Tories becoming the largest party after the May 2006 elections, I’d lump on.
109 - Dan, given that the Lib Dems came 4th in Inverness in 2003, why are you so certain they’re cert to win the seat this time round?
Who the devil is Marc Francois? Outrageous for a Tory MP in this day in age, after 200 years of beating the French and just days after the Trafalgar celebrations, to be of French stock.
[133] I thought “riding” meant “thirding” … mind you, I also think “refute” means “disprove” rather than “reject.”
Now to much more important matters - are we going to have a pb.com panto, and if so what should it be and who’s going to play who?
134 - Although funnily enough quite a few old stlyle Reform MP’s are standing down and quite a few former PC’s are standing in Conservative held or winnable ridings. I do think Harper is a big part of the problem but a former PC leader could endanger another splintering of the Canadian right.
RE 61: Do you know anything about the political makeup of the Scilly Isles?
138.Anatole, here’s the devil:
http://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=people.person.page&personID=4689
For anyone who is interested in Canadian politics there’s quite a good site called electionprediction.org. It’s like a civilised version of Vote 2005.
Re: 141 - Hi Maddy. The Scillies are part of the St Ives Constituency which is LD and has been since 1997. As for the islands themselves, however, they are governed by their own Council rather than Penwith DC which covers the mainland and are even outside the aegis of Cornwall County Council.
To my knowledge, the Scilly Isles Councillors are non party political and there are 21 of them from the various islands. I was once told there are rarely any contested elections and the Members are often ex-members from other authorities who have retired to Scilly.
Stodge @ 136. Wallington S? Not in our wildest dreams! The Libs are very entrenched there.
141: As the comment above says, there is no real local party politics in the Scillies. The 2004 Euro election was broken down by local authority area, and thus gives a rare party political reading of the islands. UKIP were in front with 32%, Conservatives next with 23% and Lib Dems with 21% (Labour had 9%). However, voting patterns in the Euros were very different from in the general election, so I would expect that the Isles voted for Andrew George by a fair margin. However, there are only 1500 electors there.
OT: There was discussion on an earlier thread about the politics of Virginia. For those interested, http://www.mi.vt.edu/uploads/VAElectionReport.pdf is worth reading.
146. And at the Euro elections there were 5 Gorgeous George fans….
The full result was:
UKIP 230 votes
Con 163
Libdem 147
Lab 68
Greens 58
BNP 13
Respect 5
Others 32
Btw, here’s the next chapter of the BMA/Dowd fight.
BMA is quoted by the Indy saying that he called Dowd a “faccio”, pronounced “faggio” It’s a latin word for gofer or lackey.
According to BMA it’s also the origin of the public-school term, ‘fag’ and then he added “I may be many things, but I’m not a homophobe.”
It actually makes more sense in the context he said it more the other word (Dowd is best known for being the cause of the divorce of Janet Anderson)
Baskerville - if you’re around can you give your update on the number of ballot papers which have now been returned?
Money has just gone through on Davis at 20.0 on Betfair - the longest odds he has ever been.
Fair play; Cameron did do a good job with Paxo. Though I’m surprised Paxo was so ineffectual.
On the ‘pick your favourite Shadow Cabinet’ game, I’m always amazed that so many Tories here think Hague is an electoral asset. He’s associated in people’s minds with a failed election campaign, a failed attempt to be trendy, and a jump to the righ