PB.C chart: Labour’s chances of being top party at next election
November 20th, 2005
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Punters give Labour a 57% chance of winning most seats
In spite of the emergence of David Cameron, the higher media profile over the leadership election and Tony Blair’s first ever Commons defeat punters still make Labour a very strong favourite to come out top at the next General Election.
Our latest chart based on best betting prices shows how punters are viewing the party’s election chances whenever it is held. The implied probability of a Labour victory is, like on all our charts of historical betting prices, calculated by looking at the best price available over time.
Although betting on who will get most seats at the next General Election is relatively light it does give a snap-shot of how gamblers are rating the chances. This is about which party gets most seats - not whether they get enough to have a majority.
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The trend shows the enormous challenge facing the new Tory leader. We are a long way from the point where gamblers will risk much on the Tories coming on top.
From a peak at the time of the Labour conference in Brighton things started to move slightly downwards with the Tory leadership publicity and this was added to by the Terror Bill defeat in the Commons. In total there’s been a 9 point movement against Tony Blair’s party in six weeks.
Our plan is to revise the chart every week between now and the next General Election.
Mike Smithson
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This is about which party gets most seats - not whether they get enough to have a majority
I have a feeling in my water that this chart and commentary are going to need, week by week, increasingly large-print “health warnings”
IA. I think that even some of the punters get confused. At the moment I would put the chances of Labour getting most seats at much higher than 57%. Even with the boundary changes the Tories need to be, what, 4% ahead to be equal on seats. The current poll leads have Labour 6% ahead.
I’ve been keeping an eye on this market and think it has over-reacted to Labour’s recent troubles. I expect the odds to shorten again as soon as the next “Brown Would be X Points Ahead of Tories” poll emerges.
Widdy has just said on SkyNews that she’s supporting Davis. Cameron is too risky in her opinion and risks haven’t paid in the past. DD has more substance and Cameron in unproven.
Btw, Widdy has always the habit to speak over the journalists or other guests.
4 Anne Widdecombe’s support has been the kiss of death at each stage so far.
Much like my own
5. Bercow’s support usually has the same effect.
6. On reflection he got it right at least once.
Btw, I’ve to worry about more serious things like this one!
[7] Andrea, is our Dear Leader going to make a guest appearance on the album?
8. Innocent Abroad, maybe he’s waiting to be out of Number 10 before starting to play the guitar on Silvio’s albums.
I should buy a copy of the album to send as a present to AH Matlock
Anyone watching ITV. The gloves appear to be off.
10. I can’t get it. Who’s on? What’s happining?
11. A lot more disagreement than on previous debates.
10 - Its a better debate than QT! More discussion between the two Davids!
12. Is it another debate between DD and DC?
I didn’t even know they were to do a TV debate today.
I’m not very updated in those days (and my interest in Tory leadership race is goining slowly away).
14. ops, sorry for all those spelling mistakes (”going” and “these”) and words left out (…were “going” to do….)!
Yes - a good debate and both performed well. But how long is the contest going to go on for? They should have closed the ballot period by now. It is in danger of becoming a boring turn-off.
This debate has been quite robust. Both men have been forceful and aggressive in setting out their stalls and defending them.
Widdecombe’s endorsement is utterly predictable. For all her charm and popularity with the grassroots, she seems totally unable to pick a winner.
9 - Andrea. Is that some sort of threat, sending me an album of Silvio singing?! Just send the luxury watches, please!
16 - You’ve got that right. And there is still a fortnight to run!
BTW, I didn’t see the start of the programme, but the Sunday Times this morning mentioned that a poll had been carried out specifically for the Dimbleby debate. Did anyone happen to catch the figures?
16. yes, Mike Smithson, it’s risking to become boring! There isn’t even the excitment of a close contest.
17. AHM, I don’t think he actually sings in the album. He has just written the songs.
It was a lot more feisty. My concern is though, did they just talk themselves of being in each others Shadow Cabinet? Yes, they both said they would serve, but they seemed to be some key differences on big issues which an opportune government could surely play on. One risk I suppose of a more open system of electing your leader.
21 - James: Like the differences we point out between Tony and Gordo all the time? I think that’s just a common m.o. in politics thesedays. The more worrying thing for me was Davis’s comments in the Times this morning that he would “cause trouble” inside the Shadow Cabinet for DC if he did this or that. If that is the attitude he’s going to take he might well find himself on the backbenches in short order; and such disagreements after the leadership is settled should be kept within the confidence of the Shadow Cabinet’s deliberations.
Labour`s chances of been the largest party at next election.
I think should be below 57%.
If the hard left have get their way,the favorite position of opposition will be acheivable.
None of this difficult government stuff, better to oppose.
So I will be betting, the Corbyn`s, Abbott`s will be happy in 2009
Well Alastair - I understand that and I think we accept it with an open leadership contest. But Davis seemed to go for it today and with disagreeing with Cameron on drugs, drink, tax, supporting government and talking of big debates in Shadow Cabinet - it does not sound great.
But they are his views and we need real debate, so I hope all will be well as shadow cabinet would be stronger with them both working in it.
22.AHM, DD could cause even more troubles in the backbenches. Better have your “enemy” next to you than behind you on the backbenches.
23. Dez, the hardleft couldn’t win a leadership contest. And like I once read they’re 25 and they’ve 30 different positions!
24 - Absolutely James, and I’m all for robust discussion and argument within the Shadow Cabinet, as long as it is toward constructive ends. Doing it out of pique because you aren’t leader is not only unworthy of the culprit, it damages the party. I agree that Davis has earned a place at Cameron’s table (should he win) but Davis will also have to accept Cameron’s right as leader to set the direction and tone on issues.
Agree Alastair. Should Cameron win. Davis has to be in Shadow Cabinet really because he has shown himself to be a good operator, has strong views and is very very capable. Debates are part of politics, it is how you test policies - we just got to hope those debates stay behind close doors, no time for splits. I have no reason to believe either Davis or Cameron would break that essential pre-requisite of a united party.
26. If DC wins, I would expect him to offer DD defence.
25 - Andrea, normally I would agree, but I think DD’s ability to stir up trouble, should he wish to, will have a direct correlation to the strength of his support. He’s got about 56 MPs (and we don’t know how many of those are wishing they could switch now - Willetts being one example) behind him out of 198 and he’s probably going to get little more than a third of members’ votes. He may find that he is not as potent on the backbenches as one might think if this should all come to pass.
26 - Woody. I think Defence would be ideal for DD. Something that is obviously near and dear to DD’s heart and it would allow Cameron to shuffle all of the big three positions if he wished.
Woody - Defence does sound good - perhaps in a month you will be dubbed the visionary of pb.com ?!
29.AHM, if there aren’t enough tory backbenchers to plot with, he could start to plot with Bob Marshall Andrews (http://www.kentonsunday.co.uk/Kent-News/MP-says-Frodo-Cameron-will-need-to-disappear.aspx)
25,
Agreed Andrea,
However I think the 25, with 35 differing positions, could cause a Brown premiership real difficulties, as did the rebels who Major took the whip away from.
I know that if these people get all the media attention, by joining the Tories and Lib dems, in any contrived way possible to defeat Blair, then Brown.
They will think they are in heaven, and in their eyes they will be oppostion for another twenty years, but thats how they would like it
Jack W - What do you think of this little bit of info on Cameron courtesy of Scotland on Sunday.
The posh southern stuff is completely irrelevant,” he counters. “After all, Tony Blair is an Islington-based barrister and he seems to have been able to win over Scottish people.” Cameron points out that he is partly descended from Scottish blood; the Scots part of his family moved to England in the 1930s and are from the Jacobite Clan Cameron of “Erracht.”
He could be your man in London?!!
33. I agree that some of them will continue to cause troubles, while others will calm down (at least for a period when Brown will become PM).
When Blair was defeated, they were the first to appear on TV screens. DD, the Home Shadow Secretary, was almost ignored and it seemed that Diane Abbott’s opinions were more important (this speaks volume of media attention toward poor DD!).
‘morning all.
Are there likely to be any more polls on how the Tory Members are voting?
Andrea at 25 - My problem with the idea of giving David Davis a shadow cabinet position is that I can only imagine two possible scenarios concerning him.
Scenario 1: Davis gets a shadow cabinet job, but at some point in the next 18-24 months he conveniently finds some or other “matter of principle” on which he disagrees with Cameron and so he resigns and heads off to the backbenches to stir up trouble and try to get a power base for himself.
Scenario 2: Davis doesn’t get a shadow cabinet job and goes straight to the backbenches - but, having been soundly beaten in leadership vote, lacks the authority to ever be anything other than a very minor irritation.
There is, in theory, a Scenario 3 in which David Davis gets a shadow cabinet position and stays the course on his very best behaviour.
Given my view that Scenario 3 is virtually impossible, I strongly favour Scenario 2. It’d be better to have a much weakened Davis on the backbenches from the start rather than let him rebuild himself within the shadow cabinet, for a couple of years, before an inevitable resignation.
35
As you say when Brown takes over they might be quiet for a while.
However would`nt hold your breath too long.
The first contensious issue they will be there.
The oxygen of publicity too much too resist.
I realy fear for Brown, two years out from a general election, the media dying for a change, will centre on the 25 hard left.
Thus creating an impression rightly or wrongly a labour Brown premiership dying in office, just like the last days of Callaghan.
I realy do think its time up for a centrist Labour Party, unless Brown has a stragegy to deal with them.
Do the 25 hard left ever vote for the government?
Mr Palmer-Would you agree that to avoid any inferences of possible sleaze,the public is informed soonest:
1) That TB donated to chariry the same value (£40,000) of the gift in kind that he received for the 26 night stay at the villa in Barbados for his summer holiday this year.
2) That 18% tax rebate will not be claimed on the amount TB donated to charity for this gift in kind.
That should have read “‘afternoon”
37. I agree Scenario 3 is the best one and scenario 1 the worst one, but after a few months and if polls aren’t very good, scenario 2 could become scenario 1.
Please, someone could tell me what DD is designing here:
http://editorial.gettyimages.com/source/search/details_pop.aspx?iid=56221420&cdi=0
36 - Julian. I’m sure there will be. The papers will have to find some way of maintaining public interest in the race for the next two weeks! We’ve had all the big endorsements from party grandees now. Among the press, only the Telegraph has yet to declare a preference.
38.Dez, it’ll depend when the TB to GB handover will take place. Brown could get an honeymoon in the PLP too at the beginning and the number of serial rebels could go down. Enough to quietly rule.
Then Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Alan Simpson will continue to rebel, but it’s a given now.
[41] Piece of cake, Andrea - DD’s showing us how he’s going to implement his preferred scenario…
Looks like Nelson’s battle plans for Trafalgar to me…
Have you seen that trailer for BBC parliament when Tony Benn describes how he puts politicians in 2 camps. Weathercocks and Signposts. Weathercocks are led by focus groups and popular public opinion. Signposts are prinicpled politicians. Which of the 2 would you put DC and DD in?
43.
Andrea,
when under them circumstances is the best time for Brown to take over?
Looks like closer to the election the better, if the PLP gives him a honeymoon and he is allowed to quietly rule.
But in the meantime its continued warfare, the damage maybe to great when ever Brown takes over in the publics eyes to effect the outcome.
So a centrist conservative party led by Cameron is seen by the electorate as a safer bet of quieter rule than relying on the 25 hard left in safe seats holding Brown to ransom.
47. Dez, I’m not sure PLP has 25 hard-left MPs. I think it depends on who do you consider hard-left?
Is Glenda Jackson hard-left or traditional Labour in your opinion? I would say “traditional Labour”. Hard-left are the likes of John McDonnell (and I don’t think they’re 25).
Then some MPs have got the habit to rebel and it could be difficult to stop.
46 - Woody. Are you suggesting that DD would get Tony Benn’s endorsement? Poor fellow, and on the same day that he’s received Widdy’s blessing too!
49. You might say that. I couldn’t possibly comment.
I think Tony Benn quite likes DD though. That’s what comes across in his diaries.
Tony Benn also has a pathological hatred for the Conservative Party. Talk about the kiss of death!
51. Kiss of death has already been applied. It is funny how Widdy keeps backing the underdog. She would have cleaned up if she bet on David vs Goliath.
48,
Andrea yes I agree, that Glenda and others are traditional Labour.
If there aren`t 25 hard left Mp`s then Brown as a hope.
Especially if previous ministers like Dobson, Short and other give Gordon a fair run.
How many do you think GB could rely upon, who are at the moment just anti Blair, but would let Brown get some difficult reforms through.
52 - Well, she’s perfectly free to endorse whomever she likes and I respect her decision and her reasons for it. But if I were Davis, I would refrain from extolling the significance of this endorsement too loudly lest it be pointed out that DD was her third choice, behind KC and LF. Hardly much of an endorsement at all put in that context.
Cameron’s quote:
“Or go through the divisions lobbies in the House of Commons with Frank Dobson and Jeremy Corbyn and people who frankly if you put them in the Natural History Museum the dinosaurs would walk out in objection.”
well, I doubt that dinosaurs would stay in the same room as him and the tories too. They (the tories) are too old and out of date even for them
Kind of O/T, but I’ve just returned from Hersham branch’s legendary - and I mean seriously good - wine and cheese party. Attendance just over 30, predominantly elderly, and members more than activists. I made a particular point of asking (gently) about the leadership, and was frankly astonished that DC is polling around 5-1; in fact, there was only one declared DD supporter. Some were anxious about the drugs issue: others were resiliently tolerant. Pretty well all suspected a Labour ‘dirty-trick’ with the Telegraph story which only strenghthened support.
OK, safe branch in safe seat deep in safe Surrey-land…so no claims about representativeness, but my hunch is that DC may now be inching closer to the 70 +% level of support.
Back O/T, I’m pretty sure that DD will accept a senior position under and will NOT find a pretext of resigning thereafter. The will to win at the grass-roots is now almost tangibly obsessional that a wrath of biblical proportions would likely descend on any rock-the-boat merchants.
53. Dez, the names you mentioned seem driven by anti-Blair feelings. I don’t know how they’ll behave when TB will be gone.
Then there’s a group of rebels, but not too serial rebels who could fall in the “traditional labour” category: for ex. David Taylor (who’s a Brown’s fan), Michael Clapman, Jim Cousins, Gordon Prentice.
There’re the historic figures like Skinner and Gwyneth and the free spirits (kate hoey).
Then the hopeless causes: Corbyn, McDonnell, Lynne Jones and Simpson.
Then Diane Abbott who could rebel against herself: she could vote against city academies and send her child there the next day!
55. Btw, it’s not the first he and Osborne say it. I think it’s pretty pointless, because the tories are not going in the “no” lobby for the same reason of Jeremy Corbyn.
Then I’m sure Labour whips will be happy if Cameron and the tories will back them everytime Corbyn is going to rebel.
56 - John, I that mirrors pretty closely what I am finding here in Beaconsfield despite, as in your own case, DD having the support of the local MP. I did have the opportunity to speak to several fellow Conservatives after Church services this morning (all of whom read the Telegraph regularly) and there was the same suspicion and anger at what was perceived to be Labour Dirty Tricks that you have reported in your neck of the woods. We didn’t get into the drugs issue, but it’s a given that these people wouldn’t be supporting DC if they thought there was anything to worry about in the chatter.
57. ops, I left out a couple of verbs from my sentences
56. JOhn O, this is for you, but I’m sure you’ve already seen it (because it’s pretty old)_:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/mpsuncovered/story/0,9396,1457928,00.html
58,
Dont worry about Labour dirty tricks, if there is a concern the media will get it one way or another, and rightly so, if he is going to be the next prime minister.
If the boot was on the other foot, bet you wanted to know all about Blair when he was leader of the official opposition.
Can`t believe you didn`t.
Re. 4, yes, Andrea, she’s bl**dy rude that way (especially when she complains about people talking over, or interrupting, her). Hence my disgust at her being regarded as a national treasure (or the media having tried to make her one a few years ago).
59 - Andrea, Many thanks. No, I hadn’t seen that ‘compendium’, but there are no shocks or surprises. But Ian must surely be a rival to the Ma’am of Maidstone in being a truly and spectacularly atrocious judge of form….
60 - Dez, don’t you think it is an abuse of authority for Labour to be leaking secret Treasury files to the press for partisan advantage? The talk of drugs has been swirling out there since the beginning of October and nobody has yet to come up with anything of any consequence. If the boot was on the other foot, I still wouldn’t have approved of the Treasury leaking secret files to the press in aid of anybody, and I don’t appreciate my motives being impuned. This goes to the integrity of the government and the independence of the civil service.
62. John, he forgot to answer the question about what he would like to do if not-relected like it was not a possibility……….:wink:
64 - Yeeesss, and still with a 7700 margin he can still just about evade the question. I guess there must be a chance he will be offered a front-bench position under a DC ‘unity’ team as he has not been divisively factional during the campaign. But I’d be most surprised if that would be at Shadow Cabinet level, so he may well not be interested. BTW, there’s no ill-feeling in the constituency I can discern over his backing for DD.
65.”Yeeesss, and still with a 7700 margin he can still just about evade the question”
If you don’t try to de-select him again…..:wink:
Btw, look at what Cameron do to relax:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/mpsuncovered/story/0,9396,1446948,00.html
66 - Let’s be clear: I didn’t try and deselect him the first time!
67. puuuf…..”you” as the second plural person!
67 - I vaguely remember someone saying that his vegetables have won prizes at local market competitions in Witney.
63,
Yes if that was the case, however this could be the usual telegraph scare story itself do you have proof its labour or are you been partisan yourself
69.AHM, your MP hasn’t answered that Q&A, so I don’t know his hobbies.
67 - I vaguely remember someone saying that his vegetables have won prizes at local market competitions in Witney.
70 - My partisan leanings lead me to suspect Labour involvement in it and, considering they have lots of form for this sort of thing, I don’t think it is an unrealistic assumption.
71 - You know far too much as it is anyway, Andrea
72.Alistair, ok, we’ve understood: your man is great in agricolture too. His vegetables are the best in the area.
66 - Reminds me of that hilarious Spitting Image sketch back in the 1980s when Mrs T was in her Iron-prime. She and the Cabinet are dining at a restaurant and the waiter approaches the table:
WAITER: Prime Minister, What would you like as the main course?
GREAT SHE-ELEPHANT: I will have the beef…and I want it RAW..
WAITER: And the vegetables?
MRS T (glancing contemptuously at her ‘colleagues’): Oh, they’ll have the same.
Oh, happy days… :). They shall return
66/75. The “Who (or what) has most influenced your political thinking?” answer wasn’t very original.
75 - I remember that one myself. Great Stuff!
72
Dangerous are assumptions wouldn`t want you on the jury if i was a labour party member.
78 - No, you wouldn’t. But I think one would have to be pretty naive not to suspect dirty tricks considering the record of this government for such things.
Lovely headline about the davate by BBC website:
“Davis and Cameron trade insults”
34 James M. Many thanks for the information that DC suggests he is a member of Clan Cameron of Erracht, a notable Jacobite Clan of the 45. My Intelligence Services - MI1745 - are scouring records to determine the truth of the matter. As I’m sure you realize I couldn’t possibly throw my not inconsiderable political weight behind a candidate without suitable verification !!
Donald Cameron of Lochiel, 7th of Erracht, was a major ally of the Prince Regent in the 45 and was present when Charles Edward Stuart raised the Royal Standard of his father James VIII of Scotland and III of England at Glenfinnan on 19th August 1745. Although very badly wounded at Culloden, Lochiel escaped to France where he died in 1748.
46. Neither, one hopes. Anyone who thinks that the world is that simple is, indeed, simple(nothern expression for daft).
Re. 79, there’s a certain amount of truth in that. I well remember Frank Field being badmouthed as ‘a political joke’ after his resignation in the 98 reshuffle.
Still, the Tories did it under Major - just read the Brandreth Diaries re. the attempts to smear Alan Howarth (’How are things going with the wife?’), trying to portray his defection as the act of a sad and bitter man with an unhappy marriage.
All the same, two wrongs don’t make a right.
Had a proper canvass session today (as opposed to roving surgeries) for the first time since the election, in Beeston West (Labour at borough level, LibDem at County, but all three parties with a fair chunk of GE support). 12% swing to Labour (comparing only people who had been canvassed before, mostly at the GE), but a slightly odd make-up - no Tory->Lab (or vice versa) switchers at all, just LibDems and ‘not sures’ saying they’d vote Labour next time because it was a marginal seat and/or they’d protested about Iraq and would now be returning. As before the election, I felt that there was a fairly stable Tory core that goes neither up nor down, and a Lab/Lib vote that goes back and forth. All the usual reservations about canvass returns, of course, and may not be typical of less obviously marginal seats.
83 - You’re quite right Richard - two wrongs don’t make a right. You will notice that I never claimed that our side was ‘purer than pure, whiter than white’ in my comments (though a certain leader of another party promised to be just so - which has sadly turned out to have been just one more falsehood in a long list of them.)
I simply said that I would not have approved of us using privileged files against Labour anymore than I like the idea of them doing it to us.
Not sure how the defection of Alan Howarth could be characterised as anything but opportunistic though.
84.”but a slightly odd make-up ”
I don’t find that odd. The tory vote won’t go down, so I would have not expected many Con to Lab voters. Considering the Libdems have been almost MIA in recent times, I’m not that surprised by a Lib to Lab swing.
What type of people live in that ward?
I have almost no knowledge of the political situation in Broxtowe, and what little I do have comes from reading Nick’s and Vino’s posts here. But it seems to me that, based on the results in May and the seat’s past Conservative tendencies, Nick will have difficulty holding on if there is any significant movement against Labour at the national level at all next time. How much did your majority shrink this time, Nick? And this was a year in which your party was going on to win a majority of 66 overall. You can claim that there were various protest factors at play, but it seems likely that by 2009/2010 there will be even more Labour fatigue among the electorate and if the economy goes down the pan then all bets are off.
Certainly not writing you off, but I think you are going to have more difficulty next time than you seem to think!
87.”How much did your majority shrink this time, Nick?
I’m not Nick, but here’s Broxtowe result:
2001 majority: 12% (5,873 votes)
2005 majority: 4.7% (2,296)
Labour down 6.7%, Tories up 0.5%, Libdems up 1.4%.
A 3.6% Lab to Con swing.
88 - Thanks Andrea. Reduced by about 60% then - not terribly encoraging is it?
89- encouraging, rather. Grrrr. My spelling and grammar are atrocious today!
89. AHM. I think it was more or less on line with the national picture.
Pre-boundary changes, Broxtowe is a key seat: if Lab loses it, it’ll lose a majority in the Commons.
87/88 AHM/Andrea. I think unless the Tories up their game in the Midlands and North then Nick will be reasonably safe. The Tories performance in the super marginals in these areas was poor. the danger for the Tories is that long term they become not just a party of England but a party, largely of southern England.
Whether Cameroon’s Jacobite sympathies will be a help up North or not we’ll wait and see, but I’m placing a few of my henchmen at the husting in Perth on Wednesday to repel the attentions of the Butcher of Haltemprice and Howden !
91 - Yes, I agree. I don’t mean to infer that Nick performed particularly badly or anything of that nature, just saying that his political position is slightly precarious. A lot will depend on events over the next four years and who his challengers are, etc. Far too early to predict results, but it seems safe to think that it will be close either way.
Nick, if you are watching, can you tell us how you expect the boundary changes to affect your numbers?
92 - Being a scion of the great Clan Campbell of Argyll (of decided non- Jacobite sympathies), you and I will have to agree to differ on that!
You’re not related to any MacDonalds are you, Jack?
93. AHM, you certainly have these problems…..Beaconfield is the 5th seafest seat for the tories. I hope you’ll continue to work hard to catch John Bercow’s Buckingham for the Bronze Medal
Before Andrew Rosindell catches you all!
95 - Andrea. I can assure you that the problem is being worked on. We are certainly aiming for the top!
93. “if you are watching, can you tell us how you expect the boundary changes to affect your numbers? ”
I think the only change is that the whole Eastwood North and Greasley (Beauvale) Ward will be part of the Ashfield constituency (it was a slipt ward). It’s a Labour ward at local level)
97. ops, I meant a “split” ward!
96. AHM, You could reach the top of the Tory list, but becoming the safest seat in the country is too difficult!
98 - Probably.
94 AHM. A Campbell ……… Mmhhhhhh …… I knew there was something sus about you contributions ! And from Beaconsfield !! I had to stay there once at the Bell House Hotel …… sounds very quaint … but it was more like an upmarket Spanish bordello …. full of “Footballers Wives” and antique dealers on the Sunday I stayed !
I’m a member of Clan Stewart of Atholl and although not related to any MacDonalds, I commend the fact that MacDonald of Tierndrish spent the first powder of the 45, when with only 11 men he intercepted and disarmed two companies of the “Royals” at Drochait Ard and took them as prisioners to see the unfurling of the Royal standard at Glenfinnan.
99. Then you’re losing ground….Beaconfield had a bigger majoirty than Buckingham in 2001!
100 - The Bellhouse is quite nice really. The arches are a rather mediterranean though, I agree.
101 - Oh stop rubbing it in!
102. Calm down…..I’m only stating facts.
102 AHM. If memory serves doesn’t the Bell House also sport green roof tiles !! …… and also a rather larger contingent than one would expect in Winter of ladies of a David Dickinson hue - orange faced and “cheap as chips” !!
103 - Facts!?! Facts!?!?!? oh, facts.. yes, I suppose you are. hmph!
104 - They’re an reddish-orange colour I think, Jack.
105.AHM, have you drunk something? Have you gone to a university reunion with Cameron?
106 - Now, now Andrea. Nastiness does not become you.
107. I’m learning well from you tories!
(btw, I’ve just realized it’s BeaconSfield and not Beaconfield!)
108 - I’ve told you in the past to put your glasses on.
109. I’ve it on…..btw, what does “X does not become you” mean?
(Fast English course sponsored by Matlock4Peer Association)
Alastair - where are the Ribble Valley and Skipton and Ripon in that league table of safe Conservative seats? I am now a resident in the former, which is next door to the latter.
Jack W - I am a Malcolm myself. Now I have not researched my family tree, but the Malcolm Family Castle is Duntrune I believe. So can you tell me from your wise knowledge base if I am now your ally or enemy and if I can stake a claim on the Scottish throne?
106 Andrea. I fear AHM is drinking the heady fumes of anticipation of a letter, the content of which will not be made public until the first day of 2006 !! ……. a highly suitable reward for over half a century distinguished service …….. as a doorman at the Bell House Hotel !!!!!!
111.”where are the Ribble Valley and Skipton and Ripon in that league table of safe Conservative seats? I am now a resident in the former, which is next door to the latter.”
Ribble Valley is the 20th safest tory seat (taking in consideration the majority in % terms) and Skipton & Ripon is number 61.
Wow Andrea - thanks. We have like a massive majority, but with all the calculations taken these days, did not expect us to be 20th. More work to be done yet…
110 - Andrea, it generally means that whatever you are doing seems out of character.
112 - Don’t laugh, Jack! A man’s got to earn his keep somehow!
111. Any stats for South Derbyshire Andrea?
114. To see the full list:
http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2005/rp05-033.pdf
Go down until page 103.
Many Labour seats (around 40) are safer than the safest Tory seat. Then Kennedy’s seat and Gerry Adams’ Belfast West are safest of K&C too.
115. AHM, but I wasn’t nasty!
114 - Always more work to be done James, but I think they’re both well out of any immediate danger!
Well Alastair - my personal battle is turn East Lancashire blue, especially Pendle.
120 - Best wishes in that, James. I’m your efforts will bear fruit in four years time.
BTW, did you see Francis Maude’s last post on conservativehome.com in which he discusses his own constituency association in Horsham (which is very safe) having voted to merge with Crawley (the most marginal Labour seat in the country)? This strikes me as a very innovative way to focus our efforts on marginals by harnessing the vast resources we have built in our safer seats. Something for associations up and down the country to consider, perhaps?
111 James M. Clan Malcolm derives from the Clan MacCullum. In the 18th Century the Chief Dugald MacCullum of Poltalloch adopted the name Malcolm. Duntrune Castle was sold to the Malcolms in 1792 and remains the seat of the Chiefs of Malcolm to this day.
Of the Malcolm royal lineage the best I can find is that the then Chief Sir Ian Malcolm, a Conservative MP at the turn of the 20th century married the daughter of Lilly Langtry, Edward VII mistress !!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sir_Ian_Malcolm
114. James, did you expect to be in an higher or lower position?
I am outraged - John Bercow has the safest Tory seat in the country, measured by number of votes!
124. To feel better look at the measure with %….he has only the third one using that method.
Not a great consolation anyway if you don’t like him.
94 & 100. My Swedish wife was astonished when I started shouting abuse in Gaelic at the television when Alistair Campbell was on. When I had cooled down, I explained to her that the Campbells had been detestable for a thousand years, as any Scotsman other than a Campbell would tell you. It’s no surprise that the nastiest piece of work in British politics is one. I told her the name derives from the Gaelic for ‘twisted mouth’, given to Duncan MacDuibhne, grandfather of the evil ‘Colin Mor’ Campbell, from whom the chiefs of the clan derive their name ‘MacCailean Mor’. I can splutter and fume for hours like this on a steady diet of single malt whisky, but I will have mercy on AH Matlock, and refrain. In fact I will go and have a glass of 15 year old Glenlivet to help me recover from getting this off my chest. Slainte mhath!
126 - Steady on old boy!
I suppose it’s a good job that my mother was a Campbell and my father a Matlock and not the other way round, considering my Christian name is also Alastair.
I prefer 15 year Bruichladdich, in which I am indulging as we speak!
116. Woody, South Derbyshire will lose 2 wards to South Derby: Boulton and Chellaston.
Considering you certainly know those places better than me, will the seat become better or worse for the tories?
126 Fergus/AHM. I knew you should have kept quiet about your Campbell connections AHM ! I fear the MaDonalds of Buckinghamshire are laying plans this very day !!!!!!
128. Better having watched the votes for those 2 wards being counted. Just wondered where we were on the new target list as it stands.
129 - We took care of them once Jack… we can do so again!
130. At local level they’re Labour with UKIP in a good second place!
Pre boundary changes you’re Tory target number 76 and the 66th smallest Lab majority. But then the boundary changes could probably change lots of things in the target list.
131 AHM. You are a brave man !! I salute you in your impending doom.
You’ll need plenty of Bruichladdich in the weeks ahead. BTW try the 21 year old, even by Bruchladdich standards it’s even more subtle than its’ younger kinsman and certainly by Islay standards is very smooth. I’m on a 30 year old Glenfarclas presently - quite superb and to be thoroughly recommended !
133 - What is it they say in Japan (or wherever it is) in situations like this? ‘We, who are about to die, salute you’ ??.. Should be fun!!
134 Alistair Herbert Matlock - You have been found guilty of the shocking crime of Campbellitis and Hanovarianism. You will be taken from this place, to the place whence you came and there you shall be committed to Bar Chart Purgatory for the rest of your natural life and may God have mercy on your tufu and lentil recipes ! Take the new Liberal Democrat down !
Becoming a Liberal Democrat?! Surely a fate worse than Death!! I beg the court show mercy!!
Andrea - I thought Ribble Valley might be a little higher on the safe seat list.
Alastair I saw Francis Maude’s post. It is something worth considering. East Lancashire has a couple of marginal seats - Pendle, Rossendale, Hynburn.
135. Jack, I support this decision, but the punishment should be public!
Thanks Jack W - Is my clan loyal to your cause or not? If not will I have to choose between you or the family?!
137. James, talking about Ribble area, are the tories disappointed of the South Ribble result?
137 - Yes, I think so James. I understand there were a number of issues that they had to work through and obstacles that needed overcoming, but it will all be worth the effort if Crawley is a comfortable gain next time.
141. AHM, actually I don’t see where the great advantage is?
I suppose resources will be moved from Horsham to Crawley anyway even if the 2 associations won’t merge. What am I missing?
Andrea - I cannot speak for South Ribble I am afraid. I was up in Scotland for most of the campaign at university. Just popped back occasionally to help in Pendle.
We ran an excellent campaign, but it in the end it was not quite enough.
142 - Two separate associations encourages people to focus on their own areas, Andrea. Many activists in Horsham would have been preoccupied with ensuring that their own seat remained safe rather than being proactive in other areas. Merging the associations into one encourages a different mentality and ensures that Crawley has access to the resources and organisational base of a safe seat on an ongoing basis that it wouldn’t have otherwise. It makes sense that safe seats should help nearby marginals even without this sort of arrangement being in place, but it doesn’t happen as often as you might think. Many people do tend to concentrate on their own patch.
127 Never mind, Alastair, I approve of your taste in Islay malts. By the way, on a spying mission in Inveraray, in the heart of enemy territory, I enjoyed an excellent meal in the George Hotel, followed by an exquisite 25-year old Macallan. To be recommended.
145 - Fergus, Inveraray is a beautiful spot isn’t it? I have lots of family there (naturally) though sadly, not as many Tories about as there used to be!
Which clan do you belong to, may one ask?
19. AHM - I watched the debate programme from the very start - the poll referred to in the Sunday Times was not mentioned at all on the programme.
144. AHM. I think if people are more preoccupied to keep safe their own seat, they’ll continue to concentrate their efforts on this preoccupation. Concerning the organisational base, associations in marginals are sometimes much more organized than associations in safe seats which sometimes tend to be, well, complacent.
Then Horsham’s tories didn’t have a great result: maybe they’re the ones who should learn from Crawley’s association!
147 - Thanks Mike. Odd they would commission a poll and then not use it.
148 - You may be right, but I think that it will encourage a different way of looking at the tactical situation on the ground. Crawley and Horsham becomes ‘my patch’ rather than Horsham alone. We’ll see if it works or not in four years time!
142 - It can be quite hard persuading workers to help in other constituencies, even neighbouring ones, merging them gives an added incentive to help out.
Although the work done/money donated by NE Hampshire in my constituency, Colne Valley in 2001, goes to prove that some are very willing to help outside their own area.
150/151. You tories are really lazy. You should learn from the Libdems!
152 - What’s that? Learn to win 62 seats rather than 198 and be in opposition for 80 years?
153. well, I think you’re succeeding well to try to stay in opposition.
139 James M. I’ve had a rummage through my library and as far as I can immediately ascertain the Clan Malcolm/MacCullum played little part in any of the Jacobite Wars. I’ve no doubt that individuals from the Clan fought on both sides. Indeed as the clan hailed from Argyleshire it’s likely more served with the Elector of Hanover ! However as with many clans and noble English families it’s also likely that many stayed out of the fray until a (lucky) winner emerged.
Thus you are at liberty to place right at your side and declare for James VIII of Scotland and not the North German sausage muncher !!
153 - We’ll see about that! In any event, I’ll bet you we get back into government before the Lib Dems will!
146. Clan Donnachie, otherwise known as the Robertsons, or Donnachaidh.
150. They were talking about doing that in my neck of the woods. Quite a few people weren’t keen though. There is enough disagreement in one constituncy without extending it to two was the general feeling.
156. well, yes, your leader wants to support the current government
I’m a bit worried for that “I’ll bet you” you just wrote: are you planning to use me instead of money for your betting purposes?!
Accusing me to be nasty wasn’t enough….:roll:
153 AHM. Are you re-ratting already ??. Don’t forget you’ll more likely get that peerage with the Lib Dems !!
157 - Interesting. I didn’t know we’d gotten on the wrong side of the Robertsons. I thought it was only the MacDonalds and MacGregors that we messed about!
158 - Woody, which seat was your constituency’s prospective partner?
158. Woody, maybe the other constituency association still have memories of Edwina…….
157 Fergus. A fine Jacobite clan !! Alexander Robertson, the Struan Chief fought with Bonnie Dundee at Killiecrankie in 1689, with the Earl of Mar in the 15 and with Charles Edward Stuart in the 45 - Quite a record !!
161. NW Leicestershire. That’s where I went to school so it would suit me. I won’t comment on their councillors though.
160 - I suppose I should wait until I receive my letters patent and then re-rat?
165 AHM. Disgraceful !! But quite in keeping with the nobility ….. I welcome you in advance to our little club !!
164 - Interesting. I see that we had similar results in both seats last time. When does your association plan to do it’s candidate selection?
164. Woody, if you’re interested, NW Leicestershire shouldn’t have boundary changes. So it should stay a 9.5% Labour majority.
166 - I thought you hereditaries had been given the boot by our NuLab friends Jack?
167. Looking at Easter for that I think. I’ll send you an e-mail with further details if you are interested.
170 - I shall look forward to your message!
171. You have e-mail.
172 - Thanks. I’ve just sent my reply.