Will US bombers pound Iran?
November 23rd, 2005
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It’s 2/1 that there will be an air-strike within 18 months
With Tony Blair renewing his tough comments on Iran there’s now a betting market from the US-focused Dublin betting exchange, Tradesports, on whether there will be US and/or Israeli air-strikes against Iran. There are three options and the opening prices are:-
These price ares based on chances out of 100 - so the market view of an attack by the first quarter of 2007 is about 2-1.
These issues are almost too important to consider betting on - but if relations continued to deteriorate then the most likely first military step would be a bombing strike.
Certainly, as we saw with Tony Blair’s comments yesterday, the rhetoric is being stepped up on both sides of the Atlantic. But there was no threat of military action in his comments. Instead he said Iran was a “quite a different country from Iraq in many, many ways..It may well be the change in Iran comes from within ultimately”
SITE NEWS Within the next week or so we are upgrading the software that we use which hopefully will be more robust. We are also going to restore our “latest comments” facility which eats into our server capacity and brought the site down during the Tory Conference. Also changing will be the line-up of pictures in our masthead. The current plan is:-
Any ideas or suggestions. I cannot recall why we included Lembit and Boris in the first place. One suggestion is that we should include Saddam to represent the huge impact that Iraq has had on the politics of the world.
Mike Smithson
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John McCain?
1.If Lembit Opik goes out, the new one should be another Libdem. But the libdems quota could be reduced leaving them with just one in the masthead.
Why Merkel instead of Bush? Bush is still in office. Is this change only due to the great love British seem to have toward Merkel (some UK newspapers’ articles during the campaign were so embarassing partisan).
Then I’m disappointed that Osborne will be included instead Hanky Dinky Dunky!
Jacques Chirac, Paul Martin, or perhaps Giuseppe Torelli.
Andrea - you have not emailed me as you promised!!!
Sadly on topic but this article from the Altlantic Monthly gives a decent overview of the military and logistic issues facing the US if it decided to tackle Iran.
And on the subject of photos, how about one of Sarah Teather trying to be serious?
[5] Many thanks for that link, Stephen - loved the toothpaste analogy, and when I’ve saved up my pennies to buy Civilization IV (and Firaxis have fixed the bugs in it, too) I’m definitely going to play Bismarck
Nick Palmer MP!
I do think that is a slightly tasteless offering from Tradesports. Mind you, I suppose if they take a large bet from an American gentleman wearing a false beard and styling himself “Nick Sheney”, it at least gives people some early warning.
If it’s
15.8-34.9 that there will be “an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 March 07″.
Where do you get 2/1? The third option encompasses the prior two options does it not, or have I misunderstood (again).
9 - yes, they’re cumulative so the third encompasses the first two.
(100-34.9)/34.9 = 2(ish), hence the 2/1 Mike mentioned.
To be honest I don’t think it is particularly tasteless. I think anything which shows people are waking up to the possibility that Bush & co. are planning aggression against Iran can only be a good thing. That way manifestations of public fear and anger about such a ruinous policy are more likely to be seen across the world, potentially stopping Bush pushing the button for military action, or at least ensuring that America gets what it deserves if they do this - total isolation.
I work for an American employer but will quit if the US attacks Iran.
10 - Strictly with such large spreads as shown, I think you should use the mid price, rather than either the bid or ask. This gives (100 - ((34.9-15.8)/2)) / ((34.9-15.8)/2) = 3(ish) which I think is a fairer reflection of the probabilitys.
12 :blush: That should obviously read 34.9+15.8 in the brackets above
O/T but newsy
FINAL RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCIES
The Commission propose to make no further changes to their recommendations for parliamentary constituencies in Birmingham and Merseyside, and, today, confirm their revised recommendations as their final recommendations.
more on 14 The Commission propose to make no further changes to their recommendations for parliamentary constituency boundaries in Middlesbrough, and Redcar and Cleveland and, today, confirm their revised recommendations as their final recommendations.
12 - yes, true. Depends if you want to put a bet on or get the “market expectation”: in the latter case, the midprice makes more sense.
11 - This isn’t meant as a rhetorical question but how do you feel about an Iran armed with nuclear weapons and the effect this will have on the middle-east balance of power?
Use both sides of the paper if neccessary for the answer…
11 - I see Stonch - so a nuclear armed Iran that wants to “wipe Israel off the map” at the same time as destabilising a nascent democracy in Iraq is OK is it?
On the masthead the leaders of the 3 main parties should remain, although we should require proof that Chuck Kennedy is still alive and hasn’t hibernated to a Highland distillery for the winter.
Keep Bush until his approval rating slumps below 30% ! Why do we have the wife of a cigar orientated former President and why Condi Rice ??
Also to exit - Lembit goes to outer space, Boris to find the space between his ears and Gordon Brown some space for a bigger deficit !!
So 5 replacements:
1. To keep the Tories and Andrea happy - Adam Rickett.
2. To keep Labour and Roger happy - Tony Robinson AKA Baldrick.
3. To keep Lib Dems and Tabman happy - John Cleese at a bar chart.
4. To show impartiality …..Speaker Martin !!
5. To reaffirm the sites status as the preminent internet resource for Scottish history - A portrait of Mary Queen of Scots … Queen Mary II of England !!
I’m not sure about having George Osbourne on there. I think one Notting Hill Tory is enough. Davis Hague or Fox might be better. Certainly not Adam Rickett.
20 woody. But Adam is on the Tories approved list of candidates ….. are you going for the “Corrie” and whippet vote in the hope bolstering your poor showing up north !!
How about the Viscount purely on account of the splendid moustache?
21. I know he is. I made one or two comments about that while you were away.
4. Rik, I’ve emailed you on Monday afternoon and you haven’t answered!
If you hadn’t received it, I’m a bit concerned about who got it instead of you!
There is a really good article in the New Yorker on Iran, well worth a read.
I would lay the bet.
11. Why didn’t you quit over the Iraq war? Iran is surely far more dangerous to world peace. Or are you just posturing?
22 Stephen. Excellent idea ! The good Viscount should replace Bush ! … not only on the masthead but in the Whitehouse …. American politics would be a tad more interesting !!
BTW …. Howard at PMQ’s awful !! is he demob happy …. or are the Tories now advocating a Stalinist economy !! ….. and Chuck was terible too … he’s turning into Mogadon Man ! ZZzzzzzzz
23 woody. Sorry woody I missed your Rickett ….. analysis ! I thought his adoption was part of the new modernising tendency …. all new Tory candidates stripped to the waist with oiled chests and smouching with same sex partners …….. except in Bromley of course !
28.”all new Tory candidates stripped to the waist with oiled chests and smouching with same sex partners ”
Nicholas Soames!
27. Blair was the awful one. Interesting analysis on the Daily Politics about the more low key approach.
28. I’m keen on the celebrity approach to politics. I’ve never known him speak on Tory issues or help the party.
29 - Now thats an image I really didn’t want…
29 Andrea. Mmmhhhh …. but Soames is not new !! …. Andrea you might consider yourself as a adviser on Tory selection committees ! … with special responsibility for baby oil !!
Considering Bush is going to be POTUS for another three years yet (and ergo the ‘leader of the free world’), I can’t see why you’re chopping him. Get rid of Rice instead and replace her with Merkel. What about John Howard for the last spot? He is the dean of western heads of government and Australian politics do come up once in a while. I don’t like the idea of including Saddam personally, but that’s a decision for site management to take.
30 woody. I agree that TB wasn’t at his best today …. but this was a poor PMQ’s from the opposition …… I’ll replay it at midnight instead of counting sheep … or backbench NuLabour MP’s as I call them !
34. Depends what you’re looking for Jack. It’s said that many people are fed up with smug point scoring in PMQ’s even though us politics junkies like it. By asked pertinent questions about subjects that metter to people, it might register more with the floaters.
32. Jack, so automatic reselected candidate won’t be submitted to that process?
I NEVER thought I would say this, and don’t take it out of context, but why get rid of George Bush? He has three more years of office, and if you want to acknowledge the importance of the Iraq war, it was more his decision than Saddam’s. Saddam is currently not a holder of public office, and hopefully will not be again.
Why not add Berlusconi? There are elections in Italy next year, and there is a significant Italian contribution to the site…
35 woody. I think PMQ’s for the wider public only resonates on main news bulletin soundbites. If that also equates with voters own experiences it may have an effect at the margin.
Perhaps for the Tories the performances of Cameroon in the new year will be more salient. As Hague found out good performances at PMQ’s counted for little, I wonder if indifferent ones from DC will seal his fate with not only those behind him but also the wider public. I have to say that I’ve seen nothing yet from DC that indicates he’s anything other than an average performer in the Commons. One other factor surprises me a little and that’s the dead cat bounce in the polls for the Tories, especially so with the past few months of positive media and the fact that the Lib Dems have recently gone MIA.
It’ll be important for DC that by the Spring that there’s some movement, as early public impressions of past Tory leaders have stuck through to the next GE. I just wonder if the Tories have bought themselves a pup ….. time will tell.
37 Lewis. “…. and there is a significant Italian contribution to the site… ”
36 Andrea. Only new candidates !! Don’t get greedy …… so no hanky panky with Hunky Dinky Dunky !!
Jack - if Hague’s winning parliamentary performances did him no good, why should Cameron’s indifferent ones do him any harm? Blair’s been rubbish at PMQs for 11 years and it’s done him no harm.
40 Cookie. I’d disagree that TB is a poor Commons performer, but for his backbenchers …. at least most of them, he has the enduring quality of winning 3 GE’s. For an opposition leader the problem is different - you have to land blows on the PM to stand still and also maintain party morale. If DC fails to inpire the troops behind him and the polls fail to move north he’s in trouble. ……. and he’s not even elected yet !!
Woud it be naughty of me to suggest the inclusion of Paul Burstow, MP for Sutton & Cheam?
42 John13. A disgraceful suggestion !! …. and unworthy even from me
24 - Andrea - sadly I did not receive this. You can email either Rik_w@blueyonder.co.uk or willisr@parliament.uk
I look forward to hearing from you!
I see the new Tories “we are ladies” group has been busy ….. calling themselves Women2win ! ….. I wonder if Blue2Win is a honorary member !
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4461764.stm
45. I do hope we don’t do down the all women shortlist route. Has anyone got any idea what the split is between men and women in the candidates list?
46 woody. Women only lists is tricky, but there’s no doubt that Labour sinificantly increased womens rpresentation in the Commons and for all their protestations in the past both the Tories and the Lib Dems have failed miserably todate in rectifying their miserable % of female MP’s.
In order to improve the situation without women only lists perhaps all constituency shortlists should have a gender balance.
47. How many women actually want to be an MP compared to men though. Labours all women shortlists have produced some pretty awful MPs (and men before you start Roger). I would be interested in knowing how many competent women are on the list compared with competent men.
48 woody. Ask Mrs Woody …… if she’s allowed away from the kitchen sink
In the end the sole arbitors of competency are the voters ……. and a mighty odd lot we are ! ….. otherwise how do you account for some of the present mob !
I see Mrs T occasional teatime companion is in a spot of trouble again !
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/americas/4463894.stm
50. Sorry link is :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4463894
Or even :
http://news.bbc.news.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4463894.stm
Roughly 80% of the Approved List are men, Woody.
All women shortlists have produced the Gorgon, the Fugitive and Lady Hodge.
Jack W the link is indeed
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4463894.stm
but it seems not to want to work form pbbetting.com for you. Does it for me?
54 Sean. And Conservative shortlists have provided us with :
Ann Winterton, Julian Brazier, Michael Fabricant, David Amess, Eric Forth, Derek Conway ……. oh and the rest of the Taliban Tendency ! …… It’s not all one way traffic Sean !! …… and did I mention Edward Leigh !
55 Blue2Win. An extra “news” crept in ! ….. I’m having one of those word block days ! …. I knew it would be bad today as the Guardian made sense today !
Jack W I always copy from the link info at the top of the browser and paste it into the post. Let the silicon do the work.
58 Blue2Win. Many thanks, but don’t blind me with simple computer logic ….. I’ve only just cast aside my quill pen and carrier pigeons for word processing and e-mail.
48-Woody-Not surprising as by definition you are likely to end up with second best, if that, suppose it keeps the PC brigade happy in the Labour party,the real victims being the constituents who end up with a second rate MP,but who cares about them!
Anyone know what Simon Hughes has done to upset so many of his fellow MP’s?
At PMQ’s when he got up to ask a question he was immediately jeered,got halfway through his sentence & someone yelled ‘that’s enough’!
49. Don’t do a Roger on me Jack. If the figures are what Sean suggest then it seems that not enough women are applying to be an MP.
60 john. Why do you end up with second best ? For decades most seats, more so Conservative ones, were effectively men only shortlists, and there were few complaints from men !!
In the end the voters choose and if they choose a women only shortlist Labour MP, whom you regard as “second rate” what does that say about defeated candidates. In any case in many safe seats a gerbil would romp home …… and probably has !!
62 woody. The thought of Rogering you has sent a shock wave through my very being !!
The question to be asked is why so few Conservative women are applying ?!?! - Tradition, child rearing, animosity in local party circles or the male “boys club” that the Commons is seen as. Whatever the reason the figures are dire !
61 - Labour don’t think much of him as he’s “stolen” what they think is their natural seat.
64. I don’t know why women aren’t applying. I wonder what the councillor ratio man to women is.
Labour shouldn’t think that way Book Value, as they are gradually losing Inner London (local government maps are quite striking in the amount of Blue and Yellow in Inner London boroughs).
Jack, even with all-women shortlists, there are still far more men who are Labour MPs than women, and I expect the proportion on their Approved List who are men is much the same as with the Conservatives.
Roughly 3:1 in all three parties, Woody.
63-Jack-As with any selection process if you eliminate a specific group from that process,then you risk second best.
Where is the evidence that most seats were effectively men only seats?
Secondly,an MP is meant to represent all the electors in their constituency and not just those that voted for them!
John, I imagine that most seats would have been men-only seats because in the past, the overwhelming majority of people applying for them would have been men.
67 - Sean - Am I right in thinking that we won one of the wards (Millwall?) in Tower Hamlets recently. Which perhaps illustrates the point as I don’t think we’ve ever had a seat their before.
71 - I thought you won one of the docklands seats, not particularly surpriseing given the immense gentrification of the area in the last 15years
Jack W Blue2Win wants more women in parliament as part of the Tory Tide that is coming in. Women2Win is not a part of Blue2Win. Sadly.
All women short lists are as anathema as all men short lists or all black short lists are. They are simply negative discrimination by another name.
The overall mix is just as important as the gender mix. The Tories at the last election did better than any other party in the gender and racial mix of candidates, but many were not in winnable constituencies.
Now the best performing of those candidates with experience behind them should, if they did well, be on the recommended candidates list for constituencies to consider.
All those candidates with potential should get training and mentoring. I would expect CCHQ to help train selection panels and ask constituencies to keep records of selection processes to ensure a level playing field.
The best of all futures would be open primaries where party members stood as candidates and the electorate was party members and registered supporters.
Simon Rouse
http://domino.towerhamlets.gov.uk/Web/CE_Members.nsf/0/754D4448B4FB4D2380256F1500382118?OpenDocument&bc=Councillor+Simon+Rouse
71 -
Simon Rouse , Conservative councillor for Millwall ward (which obviously is one of the docklands wards - I always get confused by the location of the New Den…)
66 woody. I’m not sure, although my hunch is that the figures would be somewhat better for the reasons I gave @ 64.
My own patch - City and District of St Albans breakdown : 58 seats.
Lib Dems 9/29 women.
Con 4/17.
Lab 8/11.
One male Indy.
Yes, Max, we won Millwall on September 2005. It would have been our first seat in the borough (and its predecessors) since 1933. Winning once overcomes the argument that it is a wasted vote, and we should pick up other seats in the Riverside wards of Tower Hamlets. Labour are also likely to lose heavily to Respect in the borough.
Islington has gone heavily Lib Dem at local level (who are now closing in at Parliamentary level), as has Southwark. Lambeth elects plenty of Lib Dem councillors. Wandsworth and Westminster are now overwhelmingly Conservative at local level, Kensington and Chelsea always has been, and Hammersmith and Fulham probably will be on May 5th. Camden will be touch and go. It really only leaves Greenwich, Lewisham and Hackney as the three Inner London boroughs that Labour can really rely on in local elections now
I know Cameron has talked about A lists and headhunting. I’m not sure about the idea of hunthunting people to be an MP. Surely you want someone whos passionate and wants to do it off their own back. There must be loads of women in conservative future who have an interest in being an MP. Why don’t we set up some sort of academy that recruits people from an early age and gives them ongoing advice and training.
Of course if we adopted direct demoracy ideas, councils would have some real power to test peoples competency would be tested from a local level at a younger age to graduate in to national level politics.
What bothers me most about the idea of an A List Woody is that anybody with a spark of independent thought will be kept off it.
78/79 woody/Sean. Has Cameroon fleshed out the A list idea or is it kite flying presently ?
I think the idea has merit as it may bring in unlikely but talented individuals …. like Adam Rick… ….. perhaps not !!
Did any of my fellow Tories watching happen to make it to the hustings at Frimley today? I had planned to attend but was ill this morning and decided against. Just wondering how many people where there, etc. I see that conservativehome.com has just put up a report on it, written by the infamous Wat Tyler, no less!
80 - Jack. I think he’s serious about the idea but other than some general details, I have yet to see the mechanics of it set out. Basically, it would be a list of 100 accomplished individuals who have attained some level of distinction in their careers.
Also, I’ve recently read something about half of this list being made up of men and the other half of women, but that may be something that Theresa May’s Women2Win group is pushing and not something Cameron himself has advocated at this point.
[82] And what do the Constituency Associations want? Someone else to pick up the bills for electioneering! It’s the same in every Party…
There are practical difficlties with the idea. If you have 100 candidates for 100 winnable seats, then the constituencies have very little choice over who they can select. This is particularly problematic when you consider that many constituencies will want to reselect candidates who performed well, and came very close to winning on May 5th. There’s also the risk that it will just be packed with people who are extremely well connected at Central Office.
81 AHM. I hope your bowels are better ! Isn’t Frimley where they have the World Darts Championship ….. Cameroon and DD going head to head on the oke ….. a pint and double top !! …. don’t forget there’s nowt in this game for two in a bed !!! ….. although that doesn’t include Steve Norris !!
77. “Wandsworth and Westminster are now overwhelmingly Conservative at local level”.
“now” was not necessary or accurate is it, Sean? I lived in Wandsworth nearly twenty years ago and it was overwhelmingly conservative (kiwi konservative iirc). Westminster (where I worked,, and keep a flat) was also very strongly tory. I think this took a hit after the Shirley Porter story started hitting the headlines, but still…
I agree with your general comments on Labour losses around Inner London but expect significant LAbour losses in all three boroughs you mentioning.
Out will go Lembit? In will come Ming!
Just watched PMQs repeat.
Was Charles Kennedy falling asleep? He sounded lathargic and tired, talked quite sllowly and you could imagine him falling back onto the benches. Michael Howard lost the plot half way through his questioning. His (supposed) soundbite at the end rambled on until you had forgotten the point. And Blair was quite poor too.
All in all, a poor week in the chamber.
88 Tim. Agreed. See my 27.
There are times (normal situation) when Charlie Kennedy is so laid back as to be horizontal. If I were of the lentil inclination I’d be pulling my hair out at Chuck’s dozy performances.
Twenty years ago, Peter, we nearly lost both Westminster and Wandsworth. Both boroughs showed huge swings to the Tories in 1990.
Wandsworth would have been considered solidly Labour prior to 1978, and marginal throughout the 1980s.
Sean Fear A Central list is a good way to ensure that candidates who have worked for the party but been unlucky in their constituencies are given an opportunity elsewhere.
I agree with you very strongly that such lists are open to bias and patronage and that must be avoided.
One way to do that is by having an open process with published criteria and the decisions being taken with a revolving constituency chairman chairing the selection meeting. Localism must mean greater local inputs to central office processes.
Without a central list how can we ensure good candidates do not get lost? Surely national coordination is one of the key functions of CCHQ. We just need safeguards.
I also think that Woody’s open training school if for real adult wannabe candidates is a great idea. Training and networking together with a brains trust thrown in. Could be a great energy creator.
[86] It’s at least arguable that Westminster, although continuously Tory since its creation in 1965 on its present boundaries, has actually been ruled by three Parties of the same name, i.e. before, during and after Porter. Porterism was a reaction to the 1986 borough election, when the Tories lost wards they’ve otherwise held since before that dreadful Radical Whig, Mr Brunel, built his railway… and of course the Paddington division of Westminster returned to County Hall your friend and mine, Uncle Ken!
44. Rik, I used this adress:Rik.w@virgin.net.
If it’s not your adress, who has received my email!?
I’ll try again later (now I’ve to go out for a pizza) to one of the adresses mentioned.
84. Sean, I think in the original idea, local associations in marginals could continue to select people outside the A list. The “A list” was basically only a suggestion. Then I suppose the local associations would feel the pressure to select candidate from it anyway, but they’re not obliged.
81. Hope you’re feeling better now Alistair.
91. I might try and flush out that idea.
I saw this nic eqote today from Robert Louis Stevenson:
Politics is perhaps the only profession for which no preparation is thought necessary.
I suppose it depends on what you mean by preparation, doesn’t it?
93 - Andrea that has not been my address for a couple of years. Where did you get that from!?
96. Rik, it’s the adress you gave me here a couple of weeks ago!
I’ll email you tonight using the other adresses. This email thing is becoming an hard task for me
96. Do you have any views on an academy style approach for new MPs Rik?
97 - Sorry i mst have been having a mental block!!!
98 - what do you mean Woody?
99. Just refering to my post at 78
Has anyone mentioned that David Cameron is barcharting more than any LibDem could?
Killer facts at the push of a button. None of these old fashioned handouts here, no glaring colours, no yellow print coming off on your hand.
Have a look but don’t forget to push the button to reveal the bars.
http://www.cameroncampaign.org/polls.html
[101] Don’t forget to push the button to reveal the bars
So that’s how all-night pubs work…
102 Innocent Abroad Its never that easy.
Re. 40, I disagree. Blair was very good at PMQs as Leader of the Opposition, and even Simon Carr (no fan) admits that he (if gradually) got the hang of Hague, IDS, and Howard.
Or at least the old Howard style. Today’s change in style (noted astutely, as other people have said, on the Daily Politics) seems to have baffled him. Is this a new (low key, forensic, ‘all bl**dy facts and no bl**dy vision, as Bevan would say) style which he can’t find his way round?
The Tories (as shown last week) are also trying to poison Blair with praise (something Simon Carr has been urging in his columns for ages).
I would agree with 1’s comments - McCain is still undervalued by traditional bookies (indeed after the last election someone quoted him 33-1 - stupid). I would bet on a McCain/Rice ticket which would be virtually impossible to beat (except I would still support the Democrat ticket out of loyalty and I don’t bet on political opponents however, attractively priced). Another good tip would be Ken Salazar (D-CO) for the Democrat vp nomination. The Dems have been fragmenting Latino/Hispanic votes to the Republicans (primarily because Bush has moved the Republicans closer to the centre regarding immigration & because a large number of Latinos are more socially conservative) and Clinton might want a socially conservative hispanic candidate from a traditioanlly red state as a running mate. Let’s remember Rudolph Giuliani has little charisma and couldn’t even beat Hillary Clinton in the senatorial race.
While no voters care about PMQ’s the westminister village does and thus they have a disproportionate effect on morale. Ergo they matter politically even if not at the ballot box. Or out more simply they don’t matter in reality but they do mattter in practice because everyone thinks they matter.
If cameroon can’t land blows then within 3 months they’ll be negative press and the die will be cast….
Sorry the last point about Giuliani should have gone after the point about McCain.
re 20s, much earlier in the day: AdamRickett - remember where he was educated: top northern public school thought of, by some, as the “Eton of the North”:
105 - “Let’s remember Rudolph Giuliani has little charisma and couldn’t even beat Hillary Clinton in the senatorial race.”
He didn’t run, due to his illness with cancer. Rick Lazio was the Republican candidate.
105 - Rudy Giuliani’s Senate race against Hillary never got going due to his having prostate cancer, and he backed out of the race about 6 months before the election leaving Congressman Rick Lazio to try to compete with Hillary.
What about Osama for the pic? Without 9/11 we wouldn’t have had war in Afghanistan, war in Iraq, oil at $70 a barrel, war turmoil in the Labour party, the Hutton and Butler inquiries, etc etc etc. In terms of influence on today’s political landscape he is, sad to say, immense. And there are markets on his fate at tradesports
109 - beat me to it , BV
111 - Given the nature of the site, my view would be that only pictures of people subject to active political related betting markets should be included.
96. Rik, I’ve emailed you!
Am I justified not to have emailed you early? Considering your support of corporal punishment, I’m a bit concerned now…..:wink:
114 Andrea. On the other hand Andrea, Rik is in favour of civil partnership !! …. mix that with the cane ?!?!? ….. does Rik have a dungeon down Sutton way
114 - Aren’t you going to email me as well, Andrea? After all the teasing I’ve had to endure from you one would think that it would be the least you could do!!
116. AHM, I’m going to resist your teasing provocations
Then I’ve not your email.
116 AHM. Beware what you hope for
117 - I thought everyone had my email! alastairmatlock@gmail.com - come on now, I won’t bite!
118 - Jack. This should be interesting…
119 AHM. “..come on now, I won’t bite!”
I think Andrea would prefer it if you did
119. AHM, I’ve saved your email address now. I’m a bit afraid to use it……….I’m still young!
121 - Look, ToryBoy was just an accident! Completely unintentional. Everyone else has emerged from email contact with me unharmed. Honest!
122 AHM. Is ToryBoy one of your love children
123 - A gentleman would never tell Jack!
124 AHM. OK don’t tell me , but what about everybody else !
I quote> Tory leadership contender David Cameron is a more popular choice for Prime Minister than Tony Blair, a Sky News poll has revealed.
The sting though is in the tail of the piece and the die hards that want to continue guerilla action after the leadership election might take note: The Tory party was also seen as too divided by 60%, while 39% said Tories were too concerned with tax cuts rather than improving public services.
http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-13468222,00.html
105. McCain will be 72 at the time of the next Presidential election.
I know that Reagan was President from age 70 to 78 but McCain at 72 would surely be just about the oldest politician anywhere in the world to first get elected to the office of President / Prime Minister.
Surely his age must be a big obstacle?
126
http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-13468222,00.html
122. AHM, I’ve emailed you. You’re all witnesses: if you won’t hear me again, it’s clear whi the culprit is.
128 Anyone know why the address splits like that? Its written correctly. Does the pb.com software interpret the ,, as the end of the internet address?
126. Blue2win, you’ve forgotten the part about Cameron trailing Gordon Brown
126 - Good stuff, Clive!
129 - My response is on it’s way!
127 Mike L. Churchill was almost 77 when he was first “elected” as PM in October 1951.
128 Blue2Win. Is the Sky poll one of their in house mickey mouse jobs or a more authorative one ?
133. OK - you know what I mean - has anyone become President or PM of a major country for the first time at 72?
Obviously it could happen and I would love him to be the Republican candidate (so we should get a good President whichever side wins) but I just fear his age will be too much of a handicap.
127 Mike L. Konrad Adenaeur was almost 74 when he was elected as Chancellor in September 1949.
31 That is not exceptionally interesting at this stage as Brown has much more name and face recognition. We must not forget that us anoraks are closer to it all that the average.
You might also say that Cameron’s popularity against Blair is because Blair is reaching Mrs T levels of popular angst.
On the other hand the Tory party is perceived as a well known brand or institution and this poll shows that the public still have a poor perception of us. We need to urgently address that and we do not do that by proposing tax cuts yet again unless we want to alienate ourselves from the voters even more than we do now.
Worse, we are still cursed with the ’split party’ tag, and I fear some of the more antediluvian DD supporters you see commenting on sites like Conservativehome.com will, in their anguish, try to rip the heart out of the party yet again.
To them, now as in the past, purity is everything, the unity we need for success is nothing.
Trouble is their purity is the voters turn-off, whereas the core Tory values and polices are the voters preference: at least until they know they are Tory policies, and when they do they run a mile shouting for mother.
Not surprising really, as (to amend a well known Australian aphorism) these dinosaurs have been a shudder attached to the Tory spine for far too long.
133 It says it is a Yougov survey, and no more info than that.
134 - Mike, I don’t think McCain’s age is necessarily a problem for him if his health remains robust. The Americans have already had an aged President in Reagan and they loved him!
135. Thanks.
138. Let’s hope so!
134 Mike L. Rene Coty became President of France in 1954 when 72.
I’m stuggling to think of more modern examples !!
137 Blue2Win. Thanks. It appears to be a kosher poll.
140 - Joseph Ratzinger became Head of the World’s smallest state (and it’s largest organised Religious group) this year at age 78. We oldies are not totally useless, you see…
136.”That is not exceptionally interesting at this stage as Brown has much more name and face recognition. We must not forget that us anoraks are closer to it all that the average.”
In the recent weeks, Cameron was under heavy media exposure. I would be interested to know his name recognition.
Re the pictures in the masthead - does the picture of Charles Kennedy need to be updated? It does not look very up to date to me.
126. The sting though is in the tail of the piece and the die hards that want to continue guerilla action after the leadership election might take note: The Tory party was also seen as too divided by 60%, while 39% said Tories were too concerned with tax cuts rather than improving public services.
We really need to get the message through that tax cuts and improving public services are not mutually exclusive.
139/141 Mike L/AHM. Outside of Europe there have been 3 recent vintage Indian PM’s.
Maraji Desai aged 81 elected 1977.
Choudray Singh aged 76 elected 1979.
Inder Gujral aged 77 elected 1997.
Of the future :
Lord Matlock of Beaconsfield aged 84 elected …..
142 Cameron’s name recognition as a senior Tory that might become leader has gone through the roof, but face recognition, what he is like and what picture people have in their heads about him, what sort of aura has he got, is probably stuck somewhere between a drugs issue, youth, smoothy and the Tory party reputation as a whole. So some of the rating against Brown comes from that close association with the Tory party which is seen as split, out of touch and obsessed with tax cuts in this poll. Other , earlier polls recorded on DC’s website show a different picture.
Brown is perhaps benefiting from the increasingly negative perception of Tony Blair, just as DC is.
The leader alone cannot change the image of the party. He can set the tone and provide a focal image set up the mechanisms and teams to get the show on the road, but the party has to play a part and be the part. Labour learnt this. They have, until recently, fought in private and lived peaceably in public view and are not seen as split as much as the Tories are. Surely the Tories can have this discipline too.
If they can The Dour One is in trouble.
111-A picture of either Sadam or Iraq as a reminder of the greatest foreign policy blunder since Munich.
Anyway I’m off to check the 24 hour drinking laws ….. G’nite and cheers all
It looks like Kennedy is in a spot of bother again:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-1887811,00.html
144 Woody We really need to get the message through that tax cuts and improving public services are not mutually exclusive.
Well, they are not. I would like to implement the DD tax cuts. But we tried three times to persuade the electorate that tax cuts and public service improvements could go hand in hand and failed. Three leaders tried and failed in three different campaign styles with three very different political personas.
If we keep banging that drum then the people out there are going to see us as one of three things (or to be precise they already do as this polls again shows):
Slow learners
Out of Touch
Hectoring bores
And it is that perception that makes it difficult to accept that we have the policies they want.
So lets accept the reality of the landscape we are in. Tax cuts are not top of the punters agenda yet and when they are they see it as stopping tax rises more than tax cuts.
We can bang on and on truthfully about the benefits of a low tax economy but they still won’t buy it unless they are sure the public services are fully funded and we are fully committed to those services.
Put it another way: the voters will not accept that we mean what we say about the public services until we have a hymn sheet that is convincing to them. Not to us, but to the people who wield the pencil in the booth or kitchen table.
The Scotsman reports that DD said The polls are all internet polls and whatever our party is, it’s not an internet party.
Hmmmnnnnn.
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/s2.cfm?id=2284872005
81 AHM - No, but I made it to London along with a genuinely undecided voter from Bromsgrove, who on the basis of tonights meeting is voting for Cameron.
The microphone failed for all of Davis’ speech and 75% of Cameron’s so those of us sitting in the Gods could only guess what Davis’ mumbles were….
152 -
Sounds like a good time then, Andy! What were your impressions of the pair? Hopefully you felt vindicated in your decision.
152: I owed my first selection as PPS (back in 1983 when I had zero qualifications to do it) to a power failure. In the middle of my impassioned speech, all the lights went out. What to do? I thought I’d demonstrate sang-froid, so I went on in full flow, to increasing hilarity in the audience as my disembodied voice harangued them through the encircling gloom. The lights came back on just before I finished, and I won by one vote (over Tony Benn’s son Stephen - nice guy BTW)! I like to think it was a test of character…
YouGov poll (all voters): Who would make the best PM?
Cameron 37%
Davis 20%
Per BBC website “Party officials say about 60% of the members have now voted”. Assuming at least another 5% are in the post and a turnout of 80% that would mean at least 81% of the votes have now been cast.
I’d like to register my vote for Helen Clark to go on the header, just to please Andrea.
No
156. Matt, finally you’ve realized the great potential of the Venerable Helen
The Commons has lost a great figure of fun….and the Guardian’s backbencher column is not the same without her and the Fugitive.
Anne Mcelvoy in yesterday’s Standard would appear to disagree with you Blue 2 Win. Her view is that indeed a very large tranche of voters in London and the South are starting to feel the pinch in terms of tax rises, and are now well aware that their pensions are going to be worth a good deal less than they thought they would be, thanks to Gordon Brown. Alan Milburn has apparently spoken of the anti-Labour swing in these areas on May 5th turning into a tidal wave unless these voters’ concerns are addressed.
There is a broader point that we need economic growth, among other things to provide income in the future for public services, but not just for that purpose. For that, we need, among other things to reduce the level of taxation. Prioritising public spending over everything, as I think you’re suggesting, is a recipe for economic stagnation.
Sean Fear No, I am not suggesting that we spend endless amounts on the public services.
I simply point out that trying yet again to persuade voters that our emphasis on a tax cutting agenda will not harm public services is an exercise in futility. We need a different approach, a different formulation.
The recent poll evidence is unchanged from the last eight years and three elections. A massive majority of voters believe Tories are obsessed with tax cuts above all else (because of our sectional interests) and they do not trust us as a consequence.
Even when the majority of the electorate believe taxes are too high they still will not automatically turn to us if they believe we are not committed to those public services.
It matters not a whit if we are right to want tax cuts if the electorate are not buying the concept from us. We can go on and on about being right to cut taxes but if the voters are not convinced we can be trusted then as a responsible party wanting to be in government we ought to reconsider our approach.
Surely you do not believe that one last effort to do what we have been doing in the past three elections will bring success? Fourth time lucky? Yep. For the Labour party.
Strictly speaking, we were not promising to reduce taxation at the last election. We were simply promising to reduce the rate of increase in taxation over the next few years, at the same time as spending more on public services. Unsurprisingly, we did not come over as that credible.
IMO, we should spend the next three and a half years clearly and honestly making the case for lower taxation, and not cower like frightened rabbits every time Labour goes on about “What services would you cut?” We could bring public sector pay under control for a start - without cutting a single service.
What I fear we’ll get, from the Conservative front bench over the next three and a half years, is a vow of silence on this issue, in the hope that we can get elected, and slip in few Conservative policies without anyone noticing.
They are already fighting in Syria so why not (see below)!!?
Militarily, Iran is a totally different proposition to Iraq. It HAS the technology (satellite, missiles), and probably a more motivated army.
BUT The USA has a tiered counter proliferation policy, and when they decide that they have run out of time for diplomacy / containment - then …… for the full policy see http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/hotdocs.htm for
DEBKAfile Exclusive: US Marines are locked in battle with Syrian troops after crossing the border from Iraq into Syria at a point west of al Qaim
November 25, 2005, 12:27 AM (GMT+02:00)
Both sides have suffered casualties. US soldiers crossed over after Damascus was given an ultimatum Thursday, Nov. 24, to hand over a group of senior commanders belonging to Abu Musab al Zarqawi’s al Qaeda force. According to US intelligence, the group had fled to Syria to escape an American attack in Mosul. Syrian border guards opened fire on the American force.
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