The Tory leadership - a gambler’s tale
November 28th, 2005
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Only nine days to go before the pay-out
Whatever your personal view of the Tories or David Cameron we hope that all those who have been tempted to bet will have had a profitable leadership election. The changing implied probabilities Cameron based on best betting odds are illustrated in our chart. From a best price of 10/1 his price has tightened even further overnight to 0.03/1.
After going strongly for him on July 3rd and then on August 1st I lost my nerve in the week before the Tory conference in Blackpool and on September 29th switched to Ken Clarke. This proved very costly because it meant closing down a spread on Cameron at the 10 level - which was 14 less than I had bought him at. The following week, after being impressed by his campaign launch, it was back into Cameron again - this time at the 9 level.
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The mythology has developed that Cameron’s success is all down to one speech. But Davis was still a strong odds-on favourite when he walked onto the Blackpool stage. To my mind, and this can be seen in market reactions, the biggest boost Cameron got was the Frank Luntz “focus group” on Newsnight at the start of the conference which set the scene for the big speech.
There was a loss of nerve again a week after the conference when all the talk was of some sensational revelations in the Sunday papers on Cameron. The day before the spread bet was closed down at 49 - a nice profit - but would have been a 100 times my stake level on December 6th.
By November 1st the only real issue was the size of Cameron’s victory. Although the Tory member polls were pointing to a 76:24 margin I went for the 3-1 that was then available on Cameron getting less than 66%. This bet had the beauty of providing some cover if, by any chance, Davis managed to do it.
There’s also been the minor market of how old the winner will be when the sell spread level was 49 and the only options were 39 and 56 years old. On top of all this betting I made a fair bit going into Ken Clarke immediately after the French referendum in May and then coming out a few days later after reading the negative comments from PB.C’s Tory community.
Looking back at my Betfair account my most profitable punts were not on Cameron at all. I began laying (betting against) David Davis heavily from June onwards when he was odds on because I simply could not see him as party leader.
So a nice profit awaits on December 6th - one that will be even bigger if Cameron comes in below 66%. But it would have been a lot more if I had kept my nerve.
Mike Smithson
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According to speculations in The Times, DD will be offered a junior position in the shadow cabinet and he’ll refuse to sit in the backbenches.
Hague should return to the Shadow Cabinet and Patrick McLoughlin is tipped for Chief Whip
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-1891558,00.html
Meanwhile Portillo has been caught in some sex sessions in Belfast with a younger girl (they were lovers in the 90’s too)…………..his wife should be a very patient woman!
I’m no fan of Portillo - but how is that story remotely in the public interest? It’s nobody’s business frankly, who he sleeps with. This country has a pathetic interest in the sex lives of strangers.
2. Couldn’t agree with you more.
There’s probably not a country in the world in which people don’t take an interest in the sex lives of famous people.
The News of the World seemed to be somewhat surprised, judging by their headline, that Portillo’s lover was a woman.
Well done Mike.
Don’t crime yourself for not making more money—the object is simply to stay in front. You are a ‘trader’, in the same way as are bookies. They don’t expect to win on every event. They understand that the odds are in their favour, and they’ll usually happy to have a balanced book. So should you.
But there is a more general point. You say that you found some posters on your website providing you with expertise you are able to turn into profits.
In the future, could a bookie offer prices which do not reflect the views of pb.com?
I love a good sex scandal. The greater the humiliation and degradation of all the parties involved the happier I am. Disappointing lack of shagging antics from the current cabinet in my opinion.
I am sure that Polly Portillo was part of Mr Major’s not inconsiderably (immmmmmm) ‘Moral Majority’. Along with Jeffrey Archer, Neil Forgettable, Jonathan Aitkin, Conrad Black, Shirley Porterillo, not forgetting the Vulcan. . . . .
1. I would have liked some comments on the Times’ article about the shadow cabinet…..I added the Portillo story just to gice “colour” to the post. But it seems everybody is more interested in it than in the Tory Shadow Cabinet
The Times is really just a load of trash, isn’t it? no journalism of any sort, just an empty vessel filled with propaganda stories generated by various NuLab factions or the proprietor. Why does anyone read it?
portillo’s not even an MP any more - so who cares? Fair game if he was preaching on morals, but he’s not. Fred - unlike the Telegraph, eh?
10. ok, we understand you don’t care, you don’t need to label as “pathetic” the ones who cares.
There is a prize involved!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/4470468.stm
6 - no shagging in the Cabinet? Leo Blair, John Brown: the stork is rarely away from Downing Street.
13. I assume ‘illicit’ behaviour was meant, in which case…well Blunkett has certainly done his bit!
Excellent stuff, Mr S. These markets are *serious* expressions of popular sentiment - strategic answers are less likely when they cost money.
Political journalists will write of the rise of Cameron beginning at the conference because it flatters their sense of self-importance. But your data show that it was Newsnight that gave Cameron the big mo.
We all want to believe that these things happen gradually, that things *emerge* from the sum of collective opinions, but Cameron’s rise shows how a single event, skillfully handled,can make the consensus.
I agree Newsnight was important in that it challenged that impression that Davis would walk it. I remember posting about a conversation I had with a member of the new intake of MPs. The person expressed doubts about Davis — saying he believed DD was far from being a certainty.
DC’s campaign launch confirmed my belief that he would be the one. I had backed him before this and on the basis of his peformance I backed him again.
14,
I don`t see why David Blunkett was single at the time.
[12] Sophia - you’re OK in the umbrella department, then? I’m puzzled as to who would actually want one of theirs - mind you, if I didn’t know before that there’ no accounting for taste, being part of this community would’ve taught me
there’ should’ve read “there’s” - I ought to wake up first and post afterwards…
18 - You can never have too many umbrellas.
I went for:
- Hague as Shadow Chanchellor
- Fox as Shadow Foreign Minister
- Osbourne Shadow Home Secretary
Re: 21 - I see no reason to move Osborne from the Shadow Chancellor post. I think Ancram will be retained in a senior post and I agree both Hague and Fox will be offered senior posts.
Mike, I’m very glad I don’t have the sort of account where you can buy and sell, as I’d almost certainly, by late September, have sold the bets totalling £26 at 4.8 and 5.0 I put on Cameron in July. I then believed that Clarke would knock Cameron out but go on to lose. Now I’ll be making a profit of about £100 on those small bets alone.
Sean @ 4: “There’s probably not a country in the world in which people don’t take an interest in the sex lives of famous people.”
As has been well said, there is a distinction to be made between ‘the public interest’ and ‘the public are interested’.
That said, I don’t understand bally eric’s implication that because it’s not obvious that the story in question enhances the public interest then in that case it shouldn’t be reported. In what sense do 99% of news stories enhance the national interest? Are all new stories to be banned except the ones that tell people to work harder, join the army and invest in the economy?
On the question of what put Cameron in the lead, surely in that regard both his conference speech and the Luntz Newsnight story come second and third place to Davis’s conference speech?
22. Ancram has said he’s going to the backbenches. I don’t see Osbourne at Shadow Home Affairs to be honest.
22 stodge. I think you’ll find that the good Marquis has stated his intention to return to the backbenches.
BTW shocking sex scandal chez Jack W …. there wasn’t any rumpy pumpy last night
1. I bet the papers were all excited when they were told ‘We’ve got a Portillo sex scandel’, only to be hit with the killer line ‘It’s with a woman though’. I agree this is not really newsworthy as all even though I have a dislike for Portillo.
[26] That’ll teach you to mock me, Jack
I agree this is not really newsworthy as all even though I have a dislike for Portillo.
I don’t understand this at all. You dislike the man - presumably because you happen not to share his politics - yet believe adultery tells you nothing about his character? You think it’s worse to be a Conservative than an adulterer? That’s just sad.
28 Innocent Abroad. My pride indeed did cometh before the fall
BTW, a little titbit wafted past my radar this morning, namely that the Cameroons feel that the DD vote will be somewhat better than the polls suggest, and may restrict their man to less than a 2/1 margin.
29. I don’t quite understand what you’re saying. He’s not a conservtive MP anymore. Listening to him on This Week, he seems to dislike the party. If he wants to commit adultery, then it’s his business, but I don’t what the public interest is.
But what is the public interest in coverage of Big Brother or the sexual behaviour of Jordan etc? The only justification there is that people are interested in reading it. If that is sufficient, then I don’t understand why you single out similar coverage of Portillo. You aren’t presumably, saying that no tabloid style sexual revelations should be published, so for what reason do you think Michael Portillo should be an exception?
Perhaps you are right Woody regarding Osbourne at Home Affairs. If Cameron did win, I would like to see Davis at Home Affairs, but there seems to be rumours he might not get that offer. I felt Hague would want Shadow Chancellor’s job so had to move Osbourne high up.
However I think Osbourne should consider taking Cameron’s Education portfolio and building up his experience.
32. I don’t think it’s newsworthy because I’m not really interested. A lot of these stories are tabloid trash to titillate readers who presumably have a very boring bedroom life of their own. If the story is a Profumo or a Blunkett where it crosses into their public life or even Major when he’s percieved to be preaching morality, then it’s a fair story. Portillo is a merely a media man who used to be an MP. No relevance to public lide whatsoever.
Re: 33 - Cameron will doubtless reward his “friends” while seeking to bring Unity to the party (whoever she may be !!). If Osborne went to Education, I think that would be regarded as a demotion. He’s Shadow Chancellor now - I expect him to remain so.
“You think it’s worse to be a Conservative than an adulterer? That’s just sad”.
You’re asaking the wrong person Peter. If you’d asked me I would have said I have no opinion on adulterers either way……
i think any likely cameron shadow cabinet will have enough scandal to keep our sundays interesting. his generation of tories are a decadent amoral bunch. pleased if the times is right and dc is planning on promoting more women esp the excellent caroline spelman. given her profile among normal people he surely has to give theresa a plum position? still unconvinced by the benefits of having hague back but willing to be proved wrong.
You’re asaking the wrong person Peter. If you’d asked me I would have said I have no opinion on adulterers either way.
Roger, I was actually asking woody, but I still don’t understand why you object so much to the coverage of adultery, even if you don’t yourself make a character judgement? Could it be that like any social conservative, your social liberalism ends where others’ moral standards begin, and in fact not only do you not make moral judgements about adultery but you would also prefer that the press didn’t enable others with different moral standards than you to reach their judgements?
34.”. A lot of these stories are tabloid trash to titillate readers who presumably have a very boring bedroom life of their own.”
yes, I admit it: I’m interested in gossip stories becuase I’ve no life. That’s why I spend so much time here.
38. I’m no social conservative Peter. I’ve made my position clear on this. Portillo is not in public life. Therefore, I consider the story to be non newsworthy or at last on a par with some soap star getting caught with their trousers down. If someone is being hypocritical or abusing their position, then it should be exposed so to speak. I don’t see that position being that much of a problem so can you now turn your amateur Paxman venom on someone else please.
Woody, I’m sorry if you think I’ve been venomous. You shouldn’t make strong statements of anger and distaste here and expect them not to be scrutinised.
I consider the story to be non newsworthy or at last on a par with some soap star getting caught with their trousers down.
Quite - and by what stretches of the wildest imagination would the News of the World publish a story like that!
the difference between portillo (whose politics i never liked when he was in power) and jordan is that jordan was a page 3 girl and has spent her adult life selling her intimate history to the papers/on tv etc.
40. Woody, it’s as newswhorty as Cherie Blair joking about Tony being able to do it 5 times each night and DD’s wife saying Davis is not very passionate anymore.
Having said that, I don’t think we’ve to create a national case about if it’s newswhorty or not.
I knew I shouldn’t have posted it.
Ancram is going to retire to the backbenches anyway - apparently the rumour of a snub to DD via being Shadow Defence Secretary, but cooled with the Party Deputy Leadership. Anyway why doesn’t the Tory Deputy shadow the office of the Deputy Prime Minister?!? Osbourne is said to have offered to stand aside from the Shadow Chancellorship, though a lot of Tory MPs are now openly touting him for the Party Chairmanship.
43 Andrea. Once again it’s all your fault Andrea !! We’ll buy you a large wooden spoon for Christmas …… or perhaps borrow one from the haul of recent Scottish rugby trophies.
Sorry Peter it was a feeble attempt at humour. I was going on to say I judge being a Conservative much more harshly than I would an adulterer but then I remembered I’d be facing the wrath of the Scottish Kirk in the shape of Max so I changed my mind
Eric, there are thousands of differences beyond those you’ve listed. The important thing is what they have in common: neither has exactly kept a low profile - page three girl and TV celebrity versus Defence Secretary, Shadow Chancellor, contender for Leader of the Opposition and TV celebiry - and people are interested in their sexual behaviour.
Don’t let the killjoys and prudes stop you posting future stories like this, Andrea. It was newsworthy to me to see the story was being covered in a broadsheet.
41. ‘You shouldn’t make strong statements of anger and distaste’.
What’s angry about me thinking that a story about an ex MP having an affair isn’t newsworthy. If it was newsworthy, then other papers apart from the Mirror would have picked up on it. I also said I don’t like Portillo. This is because I consider him a backstabbing turncoat.
The only anger and distaste is what you’re whipping up pursuing me in a manner akin to Paxman. Just cool out mate.
46 - Oh dear - indulging in a bit of sectarianism are we now Roger. And after all the PC ranting you subject us Tories to!
Woody, yes, sorry, it was eric who seemed angry about this story rather than you.
As for Portillos adultery…..I would much prefer it not to be discussed. I have no interest in his private life at all and didn’t even know he was married. Now though when he is on TV-where he is often entertaining-I suspect this trivia will take center stage. And Portillo talking about his private life is something I’d avoid at all costs.
45. Jack, I know
48. Woody, next time you don’t find something newswhorty, simply don’t comment about it. It’s what people do if they don’t some newsworthy.
45 - Big improvement on Saturday though Jack. Allthough the All Blacks could have stepped it up at any time. I saw the ex-All Black captain Todd Blackadder on the way to the game - wouldm’t fancy going up against him let alone any of the current side!
A footnote on Old Testament sexual morality… apparently, in the days of King David, when the Israelites went into battle, they divorced their wives first, so that if they went missing in action their (ex-)wives would be free to re-marry.
51.”As for Portillos adultery…..I would much prefer it not to be discussed.”
well, if you prefer not to have it discussed, why are you discussing it?
“and didn’t even know he was married”
that’s why you don’t fallow tory leadership races very well…..you should have remembered Lord Tebbitt’s comment about Portillo not having children being considered untasteful because Mrs Portillo couldn’t have children.
53. Can’t believe Hearts failed to take advantage of the Celtic loss on Saturday Max.
“51.”As for Portillos adultery…..I would much prefer it not to be discussed.””
I don’t mean here I mean in the press…….
54. Innocent Abroad, we need wise people like you to bring us (”titillate readers who presumably have a very boring bedroom life of their own” as Woody would call us) on line
58. I’m only talking about the old adage that those who talk about it the most, do it the least. The stories always have the supposed turn on phrases like ’sex sessions’ and ‘met in the hotel roon for torrid sex’. They might have been playing chess for all they know.
53 Max. I was hoping that the referee would call time on the game, when Paterson slotted the first penalty and we stormed to a 3-0 lead !! However it was a decent performance and leads me to think that Italy had better prepare for a good tonking in the Six Nations
Sadly Murrayfield was only two thirds full, a bit disappointing for the visit of the worlds best form team.
59.”. I’m only talking about the old adage that those who talk about it the most, do it the least.”
Woody, that’s why your former MP is one of my favourites….haven’t you realized it yet?
I’m only talking about the old adage that those who talk about it the most, do it the least.
Does that apply also those who quickly launch into inferences about the poverty of others’ sex lives on political discussion forums?
59 woody. “… They might have been playing chess for all they know. ”
The NoW would still be interested …. all those Old Queens and Bishops messing about in the Castles ….let alone their Checkmates… all very en passant !!
Andrea. No I didn’t know the Tebbit story but he’s an ex-politician I’m not very interested in and one of the few I really dislike so it’s not surprising. The only sex stories that are interesting in my opinion are when they could have political consequences. So Davis on Clapham Common comes into that category (though I felt quite sorry for him), David Blunkett because he lost his job over it ( and I also felt some sympathy for him). Of course the ’spankers’ and ‘whiplashers’ and John and Edwina on the Tory benches were also slightly interesting because it showed an imagination that no-one thought they had.
62. I couldn’t possibly comment.
Has anyone ever heard or used the phrase ’sex session’ outside tabloid newspaper stories.
63.”alone their Checkmates”
all together, Jack?
The only sex stories that are interesting in my opinion are when they could have political consequences. So Davis on Clapham Common comes into that category (though I felt quite sorry for him)
Davis?! Getting back on topic, it’s obvious you know something about why Cameron has taken the lead that the rest of us don’t.
How do you do italics Peter? Excuse my spelling Mr Davis!I meant Davies
67. He meant Ron Davies, the former Welsh Secretary.
65. yes, in gay porno movie too.
[i] and [/i] around the words you want italicised, except replace [ and ] with those triangular brackets you see above , and .
(If I used them in the explanation the site would read them as web coding and they wouldn’t show.)
(i)thanks(/i)
69. Do you watch many gay pornos Andrea? Have to tell a tabloid journalist about that.
[i] back to the drawing board [/i] Any good?
72. Woody, how could you have that thought? I’m a pure boy!
Btw, I found the term “sex session” in an university paper too. It was a researche about tearooms….don’t ask I studied those things!
73. Roger, try again!
Roger, you see above the full stop and comma keys there are triangular brackets? Use them.
(I assume you are on a standard British keyboard.)
Of course there has been affair between a long standing cabinet member and a junior minister which hasn’t been exposed yet. If the tabloids get evidence about that, then there will be another outing for the phrase ’sex session’
77. Do you have some special knowledge, Woody? Was your junior minister involved with someone else?
74 Andrea. “Sex sessions” in my local tearooms !!! I’ll never look at the Manageress ever again …. let alone have a French Fancy or a fairy cake, or a Chelsea Bum ….. Bun I mean.
79. Oh, Jack, you know, I didn’t know that meaning of the word when at the time…..I was very concerned about what British people do while drinking tea!
Triangular brackets? I’ve never heard them called that. I assume you mean the “less than”, “greater than” signs….
78. Part of the current government Andrea. Couldn’t possibly say who on here though.
80 Andrea. The British never let anything get in the way of tiffin !!
82. Woody, don’t tease me! Let’s back to talk about tory shadow cabinet. Where will you place Dinky?
{i} Like this {i/}
85 Clearly not !!!!!!!!!
85. Jack, do you use those signs to write ““less than” or “greater than”?
Ares Socttish maths symbols different?
OT, but does anyone have any polls from the snap Canadian elections coming up? Will the Liberal hold on, or will the opposition cash in on the corruption?
May be worth a story on the site in the future as it will be a big election, in terms of the fact that Canada has been a firm anti-war voice that has annoyed the US, and a rightward lurch would be interesting.
86 - Should be like this < i > (I hope this displays correctly…)
87. Andrea ” Ares Socttish maths ”
That’s a new one on me ! Is it Italo/Gaelic ??
Going back to those scandalous headlines on DC’s past that failed to appear, I wonder if they prove my theory - that Labour might have the ammo, but they refuse to fire it. Because if they make a big thing of DC’s alleged encounter with ‘the hooter’, then the focus will move on to them. And from what I’ve heard, there’s barely a Labour MP on the up who hasn’t had some experience of ‘the Bronson’.
Please excuse juvenile drug slang. What I’m trying to say is that given the drug culture in Britain’s universities, you’d have to be a saint or a Mormon these days to go three years without inhaling or snorting something… therefore I reckon a gentleman’s agreement is now in operation amongst pols: don’t go there, cause it might blowback (sorry).
DC is a lucky man. And give me generals who are lucky, as Napoleon said.
89 - Doh! (And slightly confused…)
88. Some polls:
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/international/detail.asp?ID=72717&GRP=D
90. Oh, Jack, I’m here in uni working on powerpoint whilst posting. Sorry!
84. Party chairman might be a laugh.
Presumably you have all seen the Martin Rowson cartoon in the Guardian today. Seems pretty deadly to me. Cameron down 10%?
89 - Apologies - I meant <i> and </i>
Jack W Use these brackets ‘<’
96. Any link John? Don’t tend to take the Guardian that often.
99 Buggrrrrr
21 - James. I’ve just voted the same way you have. Hague for Shadow Chancellor (the party love him and his stature is better suited to facing Brown, Fox at the Foreign Office (it is rather an invisible job where domestic politics are concerned, so Hague would be a bit of a waste there if the intention is to bolster our political profile), and Osborne at the Home Office (I think DC will want a moderniser to his way of thinking at the Home Office.)
I think Davis will be offered Deputy Leader and Shadow Leader of the House of Commons. Gove and Vaizey will be brought in to the Shadow Cabinet in Junior roles and Theresa May and Caroline Spelman will both be promoted. The consensus on Conservativehome.com seems to be that Redwood will be the biggest sacking, but I have some doubts about this. He is backing Cameron after all, and it will be important to keep the Eurosceptic right onside. I will be taking over as Leader of the Opposition in the House of Lords as soon as decently possible.
94 Andrea. Fear not Andrea - My English is shocking too - My Scots fer true bonnie laddie.
101. I can’t really see Osbourne as shadow Home Secretary though. He just doesn’t seem to fit the role. As Dc has said that Education is the one job he would want outside leader, I’d have thought it would make sense to put his mate there.
103 - Could be, Woody - Those appointments are based on nothing but by own guesswork. But, Education from Shadow Chancellor would seem a huge demotion, even if it wasn’t intended to be. Osborne has run a pretty successful campaign for DC so I expect he will have his choice of jobs. I understand, as has been mentioned before, that Osborne has already made it clear he is willing to make way for Hague as Shadow Chancellor though. Osborne has done better as Shadow Chancellor than may people thought he would and I suspect he would perform well as Shadow Home Secretary too.
93 - Andrea!!! Those polls are no good. They show the Canadian Liberals ahead in them all. Off you go now and find some that have the Canadian Tories leading!
105 AHM. Now Alistair if you were not so beastly to the Lib Dems, I’m sure they’d conjure up a favourable bar chart for you.
104. I’ve no doubt that Osbourne is a very good performer and has not disgraced himself at all as Shadow Chancellor. His promotion to that position was very rapid though and if he did take over the Education brief, I would see it as a going back to the position he perhaps should have gone to after the election. After all, at 34, he had plenty of time to get back into the top positions.
BTTT Back to the Thread. Latest figs from the oh-so-drawn-out Tory contest- 61.8% had voted by close of play on Friday. Is this a precursor to 20% voting in the final week, or a low turnout of 70-72%? My personal view is the former, in which case, we have to ask ourselves; which way will the 20% vote?
106 -
107 - Woody. He’s certainly young enough to climb back up the greasy pole, but I simply don’t think such a steep move downward is likely for Cameron’s right-hand man (unless he requests it.)
107 woody. And then Cameroon is a veteran of all of 4 years ! If you’re good enough you’re old enough, you know.
Jack W is 102 !!
108 - If those figures are accurate, then it seems to me that turnout could well be lower this time. That wouldn’t be altogether a huge surprise; this contest isn’t as ideaologically polarised as the IDS-KC race was, but I suspect there is still a considerable number of ballots in the postal system.
If, on the other hand, your scenario is correct, is there any reason to think that the 20% leaving it to the last will vote any differently than we think the rest of the membership have?
108 Baskerville. I disagree. If that 62% is accurate I’d say that those expecting a 80% turnout are shy of the mark, a little over 70% would appear more likely, determined by the the media indicated walk over for Cameroon, the couldn’t give a toss mob and the snooker members placing their ballots in recycling.
111. They are accurate. As for the rest, we are reliant on guesswork. My guess is that DD’s negatives have been reduced by the campaign since conference, so he might do better, but it is only a guess.
1111/112 AHM. We’re at it again Alistair.
93- Thanks Andrea. Interesting that the scandal has actually helped the Liberals. I guess it may be a sort of a Clintonesque situation- or that they have just given billions in tax cuts 2 months before the election.
WRT sex scandals, no one could have failed to be amused by the antics of Harvey Proctor, twenty years ago.
108/112: I’d be flabbergasted if the turnout is in excess of 70%. There are probably at least 10% from the current (not very well maintained) list who have shuffled off to the big stuffed leather armchair in the sky.
108. I can’t think anything has happened in the last few days which could adversely affect DC. In fact the Telegraph endorsed him on Friday (and the Sunday Telegraph yesterday) so that could only help.
Also the YouGov poll done just after the ballots went out was soon after the Question Time debate which most people thought DD won. Since then DC has done much better on the ITV debate, Paxman interviews and various other programmes.
So I can see no reason for a late swing towards DD. If DD does do much better than expected I suspect this will have as much to do with early as well as late voting.
116. For me, its a ‘toss up’ between Ron Davies’s ‘moment of madness’ and Stephen Milligan’s fruit and stockings for the most amusing scandal of the last 20 years.
Mike L - sadly I think you are quite right. Despite having a strong preference for DD, whom I regard as a true Conservative in the mould of the Lady, I am now resigned to the leadership of Mr Cameron. I hope he’ll prove to be more robust than he has seemed thus far - and that we’ve heard the end of skeletons in his closet.
He may yet surprise me.
Fred Why restrict yourself to the last twenty years. A real contender for the Scandal with Everything Bafta has to be Jeremy Thorpe: gay lovers, models, girl friend, dog, cliff top cottages, death threats, blackmail, high court trial, aquittal and resignation and obscurity. It kept everyone agog for weeks.
120 - I really did think you’d gone away. You are sheer comedy though so welcome back!
119 - the Milligan thing - he did actually DIE you know, maybe its not so amusing! Tragic more like - to die wanking.
56 - It was disapointing Woody but we’ve a few people out and we should strengthen the team in January - so I wouldn’t worry about your bet just yet.
60 - Jack, the worst tickets were £40! Which is a bit steep to watch the All Blacks 2nd XV against a struggling Scottish side. Mind you its not a bad turnout compared to the ‘crowds’ you get at club games these days!
Fair enough Stonch, but it would still take a heart of stone to read Auberon Waugh’s obituary for him in the Spectator - and not to burst out laughing.
“Let us not regard this as a tragedy. I for one had no idea that there was so much pleasure to be had on a cold Sunday afternoon in Winter, lying on a kitchen table wearing a pair of ladies’ tights, with a plastic bag over one’s head and a satsuma fruit in one’s mouth.”
Come to think of it, Waugh also wrote an outstanding book about Thorpe “The Last Word.”
125. Dead right Sean. In addition, the announcement on the evening TV news was an astonishing performance - I forget which news reader it was, but how he kept a straight face whilst announcing the details I do not know. 121. Yes, Thorpe was pretty special too, probably the best of all as you say…so bizarre as well as so sordid…
122: I’m glad I amuse you. Each to their own.
As far as I am concerned, the leadership of HM Loyal Opposition is no laughing matter, especially when the price of getting it wrong is (at least) 4 years of dour Scottish misgovernment. But perhaps that’s what you’d like?
125. Just googled these sex scandals. All very interesting. Stephen Milligan is just about the most bazirre. What happened to Harvey Proctor after his shirt shop went bust.
128 - BTW, “Harvey’s” shirts were very good quality - I was given one as a present years back, and it has stood the test of time :). I wonder how much the Antiques Roadshow team would value it (or me for that matter).
The funniest thing in this thread is Peter ticking off Woody for his supposed hostility to Conservatives. Come here often, do you, Peter?
seanT: I think you’re making the same mistake that most of us do: assuming that most people are like the people you know personally. I spent 8 years in university in the 70s and 80s, but I’ve neither taken or even been offered drugs, nor ever met anyone who admitted to more than trying cannabis, nor ever heard of a Bronson, whatever that is. I’d be surprised to learn that many Labour MPs have snorted cocaine. Or even many Tory MPs.
Personally I agree with woody on Portillo and probably go further than he would: I’d prefer it if the press didn’t print accounts of people’s sex lives or other private matters, unless there is something illegal or hypocritical about it. That’s not the same as saying I would make it illegal, or deny Peter’s right to enjoy reading the Sunday Sport. To each his own, as Iron Lady says…
27 - are you a wind-up merchant? Are far as I can tell you are either a mad student who hangs round the union bar (the Oxford Union in particular would be good) being odd or an actual old person who is very out of touch.
Oh and the comment about Scottish misgovernment is a bit off, simply because you aren’t joking.
131 - I would take the Iron Lady’s pronouncements with more than a pinch of salt Stonch. And to be fair a lot of old(er!) people aren’t out of touch - including our friends John O and AHM
Think you mean 127 rather than 27 - poor Woody will be a bit confused!
All this hypocritical hand-wringing about the Portillo adultry story is SO funny.
Polly is just one of a number of powerful Tories who, whatever their personal procliveties, have got elected on the back of a pretended social conservatism which is the bedrock of the Tory party image and quite frankly, given their appalling performance, just about the only thing which has kept millions of people voting for them.
The most interesting thing abot the NoW (for those who hadn’t guessed this would be the case) is that Polly went on record to deny the entire story without presumably stopping to telephone first the young lady concerned who had spilled the beans honestly, as indeed the photographic record showed was the case.
Perhaps he should take up prison visiting and writing rubbish novels? he certainly lives in a fantasy world. He is, of course, also the man that most Tories (as opposed to Tory MPs) would probably have had as their leader way above Davies or Cameron if the voters of Enfield hadn’t given him the bum’s rush.
130. That was strange Nick. I thought I was the subject of some sort of Paxman vendetta.
132. I was for a sec Max.
The Government is in a complete mess on pensions and it gets worse as the day progresses:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/economics/story/0,11268,1652797,00.html?gusrc=rss
And if The Dour One wants to fill the growing black hole in his accounts he needs to find a way to tax these earnings:
http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,70131-13470943,00.html?f=rss
131: I haven’t been to the Oxford Union bar for over 20 years, but I most certainly wouldn’t classify myself as an ‘old’ person.
As I say, you are entitled to your views.
Now Somerville bar … that’s another story.
121. All of that would just be another day at the office for Parti Socialiste in Belgium - or ‘Parti Scandaleuse’ as wags have dubbed them. Pick the bones out of Andre Cools, Jean-Claude van Cauwenberghe, Willy Claes, etc.
133. I wonder if Portillo would have undergone the right-left political menopause if the good voters of Enfield hadn’t given him the bum’s rush (rather inapporiate phrase). Another one of the great what ifs. The most amusing story i’ve read about Portillo was in the Tory wars book where dear old Widdy supposedly muttered ‘Bastard’ at him when he refused to stay at HQ on 2001 election night.
Andrea at 93 (no reference to age just a post)
Last week somewhere, I cannot find it now, there was poll with the Liberals just ahead of the Conservatives and the NDP on 22%
This would probably indicate a Liberal/NDP co-alition. Seem to remember one of them 20 or so years ago, it broke down and the NDP vote fell and Liberals went up. However if the NDP get over 20% that would be one of their best performances, if not there best, in my memory.
136. On CNBC (Trisha for capitalists) this morning David Buik of Cantor Index claimed the idea of a VAT rise to 20% in Q2 2006 was being touted around the City by ‘very informed’ speculators.
141. With relatively low inflation, that wouldn’t surprise me.
130.”Personally I agree with woody on Portillo and probably go further than he would: I’d prefer it if the press didn’t print accounts of people’s sex lives or other private matters”
uhm, couldn’t this vision imply there’s something “dirty” about sex lifes? No-one usually ask not to reveal holiday’s destinations, but many ask not to reveal sex lives.
115.” Interesting that the scandal has actually helped the Liberals. I guess it may be a sort of a Clintonesque situation”
And Quebec voters seem not concerned at all about the BQ’s leader having admitted he took drugs while in office.
128. woody, I thought you weren’t interested in those things!
140. I remember to have seen a poll with the high figures for the NDP too.
143. I am when it impinges upon politicial life. Portillo is now a media tart so his sexual shenaigans are irrelevant.
144. Woody, he could always come back….in a new incarnation again!
I hope not!
146. I pray not.
Nick P at 130, at the risk of sounding offensive, did you not get invited to any parties then? Perhaps you spent all your college time in the library, when all the other cool kids were getting it on down. You rather risk confirming the general impression that all politicians are weirdo geeks with no friends, hence their desperate lust for power, to make up for their social inadequacies. I think that’s what Evelyn Waugh asserted; he was possibly right. But let’s be charitable and say that you are - just - slightly too old to be part of the widespread drug generation…. The E people.
Moreover, if you think Labour is devoid of drug use, er, sorry mate. I know people who used to DEAL cocaine into YOUR headquarters at Millbank during elections. A lot of business to be done. Sorry to break that to you. This may be depressing and a sad commentary on the people who run elections, but it’s a fact. As a reformed drug user myself, I know the risks - I’m not being flippant here.
‘Bronson’ from Charles Bronson, Charlie = Cocaine. I did say the slang was juvenile.
John mentioned Rowsons cartoon. It’s not bad but I don’t see why it’s earth shattering.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/cartoons/martinrowson/archive/0,14954,1284262,00.html
Nick P. If I remember you said you studied maths. Perhaps it was just the Golf Club maintenance students like SeanT who went digging for mushrooms?
Mulligans death was only significant because it happened at a time when people had started thinking that Conservatives were seriously weird and this helped to confirm it.
Harvey Procter Pearson who was found to have a penchent for spanking was only interesting because he was Chief Whip or perhaps that was just a Ben Elton quip?
148.”at the risk of sounding offensive, did you not get invited to any parties then? Perhaps you spent all your college time in the library, when all the other cool kids were getting it on down. You rather risk confirming the general impression that all politicians are weirdo geeks with no friends, hence their desperate lust for power, to make up for their social inadequacies. ”
People could have friends and a good social life and not taking drugs at the time. The 2 things don’t exclude each other.
Roger - I read Philosophy at University College London, actually. What did you study? How to supersize your fried chicken wings, at Luton Poly?
Actually, re DC - everyone is presuming it is coke that he did. I reckon it might have been Ecstasy. Millions of Brits under 30 have done E, many people from 30-40 have tried it. He wants to downgrade E too…
Perhaps he was a raver, like his wife.
You knew his wife?
I didn’t go to university even to study chicken wings!
Just wondering, has there been any rumours of KC rejoining the Shadow Cabinet? Is there any ideas on the new Shadow Home Secretary? I have heard people say Hague. Anyway, things are looking very good for all Tories!!
Accept DD maybe
151 - She doesnt look much of a raver to me!
Perhaps not earth-shattering, then, Roger. But I still like his take on Cameron. And I think it is a portrait that will stick. And Maximus thinks that “things are looking very good for all Tories”… With that as their new uniform???
And his take on Archer is pretty good too.
Images that ’stick’.
http://www.randomperspective.com/. ../blairbushsnog.jpg
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My prediction is that Osborne will be moved over to Party Chairman, with Hague taking over as Chancellor, and Davis and Fox staying in their old jobs. Don’t know about Deputy Leader, I’d like to see Rifkind take on the role though.
Deckchairs on the Titanic……..
With regard to the Portillo story- what exactly are the details? Where did the story first cirulate? Are any of the onlie newspages reporting it? I for one am very interested to learn more!
With regards to the Canadian Election, I’m currently on exchange in Canada. The vote of no confidence will be moved this evening at 6 pm. Martin is expected to loose that vote. He will then visit the Governor General tomorrow morning at 10am to call for a January election.
An opinion poll last week gave the conservatives a 2 point advantage. I haven’t seen any opinion polls this week. I suspect the Gomery inquiry will damage the Liberals somewhat, but I expect them to return a minority government.
161. “With regard to the Portillo story- what exactly are the details? Where did the story first cirulate? Are any of the onlie newspages reporting it? I for one am very interested to learn more!”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/tm_objectid=16421544&method=full&siteid=94762&headline=michael-has-been-a-great-comfort-to-me—-name_page.html
162. Might have known you would be first in there with the link Andrea!!!!
I met Mr Portillos ex-political secretary recently who is herself very attractive and she had nothing but kind words for him. I always think that if the people who work with you adore you you can’t be all bad.
164. I doubt William hague would have the same opinions.
163. Woody, I know I would have not disappointed you. While linking, I even thought about you
166. lol. I think the Sunday Mirror report is better. http://www.sundaymirror.co.uk/news/news/tm_objectid=16418218%26method=full%26siteid=62484%26headline=portillo%2dcheating%2don%2dwife-name_page.html
It’s Portillos wife I feel sorry for. First you have Tebbit with his kids remark, then all the homosexual experiences business and now this.
“While linking, I even thought about you”
Not I hope with a pair of tights, a plastic bag and a satsuma in your mouth?