Is £200,000 the biggest political bet ever made?
November 29th, 2005-
Who is the mystery Windsor punter?
With the Cameron-Davis race looking even more of a certainty one punter has staked what is believed to be the biggest political bet ever placed - £200,000 - in a 
William Hill betting shop in Windsor.
The man, in his forties and with an Irish accent, walked into the William Hill shop, and asked staff what odds Cameron was to win the race to be become Tory Leader.’When they explained that he was a red-hot 1/25 favourite, the man said he wanted to place £200,000 on Cameron winning’ said a Hill’s spokesman.
He went on: “The staff had to refer the bet to Head Office for acceptance, which was duly agreed and the man, who they had seen in the shop once or twice before, but who had never previously staked more than £100 on any one bet, paid on Monday morning by banker’s draft. He stands to win a profit of £8000 if the bet is successful. There is no record of any bookmaker ever accepting a political bet of this size before.”
And if 
you are speculating about the identity of the punters the spokesman went on: “.. although it could be described as a right royal wager, the location of the betting shop, in the shadow of Windsor Castle is not significant in terms of the identity of the customer, who has asked to remain anonymous”
After taking the bet, Hills slashed Cameron’s odds even further to 1/66, with David Davis now a 14/1 chance. The previous biggest bet Hills had taken for Cameron was £39,200.
Even though David Davis is having to to go through the motions of claiming that he still has a chance it is hard to see any other outcome. The only risk, surely, in this bet if if something tragic happened to David Cameron. While it’s still possible to get a return then we will see more bets like this one - and at tighter prices.
The current best price is 0.03/1
Mike Smithson
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Free money…if only I had that kind of dosh hanging around, I’d do the same!
I suspect J P McManus.
Of course Hill’s accepted the bet. And then sent press releases to ‘opinion formers’ (another hat for you MS). It’ll be in the newspapers, and on the radio as well. And nobody else can get the same price….
What about offering to publicise bookies if, but only if, they guarantee to hold their prices for a time? (cf pricewise in the RP)
Canada’s government fell on a vote of no confidence in the middle of last night. Any idea about markets opening up on the January election?
3. David is right here. The publcity generated it far more than the 8 grand that will be paid out. Might have been a different story if you were trying to get a grand on to win 8 before the conference.
P.S I’ll check the dates later that you mentioned yesterday.
What a shambles is the government on pensions. At the weekend Gordon Brown said it needed review, followed by Tony Blair in Malta saying it wouldn’t be touched and now today Johnson says the Civil Service unions deal will be honoured. Do they have any idea of what their policy is? How many governments have we got? One in the Treasury, one in Downing Street and one in the civil service unions?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4480706.stm
6 Oh, and not to forget that The Dour One yesterday bottled out at the CBI and said it would all be reviewed as part of the overall pensions review. No, really it would, wouldn’t, will, won’t ……..
Canada. Latest poll on Canadian Broadcasting has Lib 35, Con 30, NDP 20, Quebec 14(= 59% in Quebec with Lib on 22)
In Ontario Lib are said to have a 12% lead over the Cons, reverse in the mid west and west.
47% want a change of Government, 47% say better with Lib than Con. That cannot be closer.
Most expect another hung parliament although preferring a winner!
Quite consistent with another poll showing Libs on 34% Cons 30% and NDP 16%.
Should be quite an interesting election - allthough it looks like another minority government at this stage. Be interesting to see if the CPC can sweep the whole of Alberta and make a breakthrough in Quebec. Similarly the Libs will be looking to take back some of the marginal seats in Ontario and the NDP will hope to make a comeback in Saskathcewan.
Thats a pretty good interest rate on that £200.000 investment for a week isn’t it.
On Canada, the result will be as (8) said a hung parliament. The Conservatives seem unable to benefit from the Liberals problems. As the poll quoted shows, the NDP seems to be the biggest beneficiary.
Royal Diary Notes :
Here at the castle We would like to make it quite clear that Phillip has not dipped into the housekeeping or borrowed the cash from the latest tuppaware party and popped into the bookies to take a punt on that Cameron fellow. Mind you I wouldn’t put it past Air Miles Andy, except that he flew to Slitty Eye Land the other day on a trade missi….. golf trip !
Having said that I’d prefer Cameron to that other David fellow …. I really don’t fancy all that SAS nonsense at the Tuesday audience …. let alone Liam Fox absailing through the windows of the palace !!
I also hear that Tony has issued a booklet stating that in future all new candidates for MP’s must not be practising Conservatives or have any deep seated conservative tendencies for the past three years ……. Oh …… hang on is that the Pope and gays ???
Anyway ones owf now to the booze cruise ferry to stock up on fags and spirits for ones Christmas ……. come along Phillip ….. is that a betting slip dear ?????
Comment by Liz Windsor von Hanover in the 53rd year of ones reign.
It’s always risky to prognosticate about Canadian elections, for several reasons. The first is that they amount to at least four regional elections - the West, Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes - and the swing can be in different directions in different regions at the same election. The second is First Past the Post, which can produce wild swings in representation and ‘wrong winner’ scenarios in which a party that comes second in votes can have a significant seat lead. As long as the Liberal fortress holds in Ontario, it’s dubious that anyone else can form a government. The third is campaign volatility. There have been incredible mid-campaign variations in the polls in past campaigns, notably in 1988. I would be very wary of betting any money on what the outlook is from here.
8 - Presumably those numbers indicate that the Liberals are doing appallingly in Quebec but actually holding up very well elsewhere. As Lewis at 12 says, it is normally a number of regional elections in Canada and it will be interesting to see whether gains for the Liberals elsewhere balance inevitable losses in Quebec. I have a suspicion that forcing an early election may backfire on the opposition, but it will be interesting to see.
13 - It’s probably based on a sample within a sample if you understand what I mean. I’ve noticed that the Canadian media often qoute regional breakdowns which may be based on a few hundred people within the (say) sample of 1000 for the whole of Canada. So by nature there is the potential for a large MOE. Having said that I would still expect the Bloc to do quite well.
Think the Lib vote in Quebec is pretty much equal to last time and does not really affect the issue, the key as usual will be Ontario with its largish electorate, much urbanised. If the Liberals do not hold here they are probably doomed. At the moment looks as if they are holding, in my view suprising considering how long they have been in power and the circumstances of their downfall.
The NDP vote may be the final denominator and how it operates where they were second or a reasonable third.
Hello all. I’ve been away for three days, miles from civilisation, so forgive me if I’ve missed anthing. Have there been any more reports/polls suggesting that a DC win in almost certain or are we all still going on the last You Gov showings?
14/15 Max/david. Is there an idiots guide site for Canadian politics for idi… …well informed novices ??
Canada. quick follow up , James last time Quebecs 75 seats split 54 Quebec Nationalists and 21 Liberals, looks to be a similar pattern now, if the polls are to be believed.
£200K on Dc: at 14-1 might put 20p on DD!!!!!!
16 Julian. Have you been in Windsor ?!?! or miles from civilization in Beaconsfield !!
17 - There was one for the last election I’ll try to find it again. I quite like electionprediction.org. As I said on another thread it’s a civilised version of Vote-2005. It gives you a good seat by seat breakdown.
My own favourite seat is Red Deer in Alberta - it’s about 80% Conservative! Sounds like a great place to live.
19. Nor nor, Cornwall.
21. Liberal land. You poor chap.
Ha, I used to live in Islington - it’s been worse.
6-Blue2win-Typical new labour scam.
Trash private sector pensions by removing tax relief and maximising red tape.
Buy off MP’s by giving them what must be the most generous pensions in the UK,natuarlly funded by the taxpayer.I give CK credit for suggesting last week that this should be changed,off course nothing will happen,when have MP’s set an example on anything?
Next, buy off the new labour core vote with a total capitulation of public sector pension reform,plenty of taxpayers money available here to pay for it.
Set up a commission that takes 3 years to deliberate,1 week before the commission reports,publicly reject its findings.
If your not in the public sector,an MP then just work until you drop,sorry no money left.
On the other point you raise,its really becoming a farce,one prime minister at a time is enough,not two.
Interesting piece about the new Sips investement property rules on the Daily Politics now. I wrote to Caroline Spelman about this months ago but never got a reply.
20 Max. Are the Canadian Conservatives actually blue tooth and claw conservatives or are they like our own Tories a bit pink around the frilly edges ?
22 woody. Can’t have anything bad said about our celtic cousins in Cornwall, even if it’s stuffed to the brim with barchartists !! Everyone has their cross to bear !!
“My own favourite seat is Red Deer in Alberta - it’s about 80% Conservative! Sounds like a great place to live”.
Even the Red Deer go to church.
26. I was thinking more of the MPs than the general population. Had a very pleasent holiday there a couple of months ago.
25 woody. I have to say the “Politics Show” is fast becoming the Andrew (I’m a poor imitation of Paxo) Neil show ! I’ve had Bargain Hunt, Bloomberg and CBeebies on in the past hour …… one of the little nephew is here ….. honest !! …. he loves Bargain Hunt.
26 - A slightly uneasy coalition of both. The original Progressive Conservatives who were reduced to 2 seats in the early 90’s merged with much more right-wing Reform/Canadian Alliance who were strong in Western Canada. The combined vote of the two was down from what the individual parties had polled which suggested that some of the more left wing PC voters (Red Tories) weren’t too kean on electing former Reform MP’s.
Quite a few old style Reformers are stepping down this time and being replaced with people from the old PC’s. This may help win back voters in the Maritimes and Ontario.
One of the most interestng fight will be Newmarket-Aurora where the millionairess Belinda Stronach will be defending her seat. She defected to the Liberals during the last parliament which must have been slightly uncomfortable as her boyfriend (Peter McKay) is deputy leader of the CPC!
29. Not watched Bargain Hunt since that new guy took over. Not keen on men who wear bow ties all the time and he’s no Dickinson.
Brillo Pad is much better than Paxman imo.
30 Max. Many thanks for that Max. Newmarket/Aurora sounds tasty !! Always good to have a little family political tension to the mix. I wonder who the boyfriend will be canvassing for ??!! …. her if he’s got any sense !!
31 woody. With Tangoman in it then, you must be glued to “I’m a Non Entity Get Me Out of Here” ?? ….. awful drivel for the plebs !! I’m surprised at you woody !!
32. Good God no. I said he was a good presenter of Bargain Hunt in an Alan Partridge type way. I have no desire to watch him washing his pants in a jungle.
I love Canadian elections - the electorate are so volatile and parties are made and broken in a single poll. Hurrah!
My favourite Canadian Riding name used to be Notre Dame de Grace and East Lachine.
Prince Albert(Sas) seems to have the record for returning Canadian Prime Ministers
33 woody. “… I have no desire to see him washing his pants in the jungle.”
What a revolting thought for lunchtime !!
36. I know. People eat their dinner whilst watching it though. To think they have the vote as well.
37.”I know. People eat their dinner whilst watching it though. To think they have the vote as well. ”
Do you want to deny them to vote for Mrs Thatcher?
Btw, your election night always reminds of a reality show with all the candidates waiting for the result and the declaration live with all candidates standing?
Who will be voted out today? Makosi or Derek? Oona King or Gorgeous George?
37 woody. And vote more than once if from Birmingham !! … although it’s all telephone voting I suppose .. so you can rig the vote quite legitimately …. what a rotten borough !!
38. If only it had the same interest.
15, 18 - You are looking at the split of seats rather than votes. If the latest poll is right the Liberals have lost a third of their support in Quebec (i.e. about a quarter of the country and where the scandal hit that led to the downfall of the government) without much loss of national vote share (implying they are doing well elsewhere - most significantly as you say in Ontario).
OT: What do you make of this national service thing of Cameron’s?
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article330009.ece
ISTR Blunkett and/or Brown having some similar idea.
42. Looks a very interesting idea to me. Not sure how it would work yet.
42 - It’s a steal from the Lib Dems. Mark Oaten is presently working up a similar policy which was trailed some months ago.
44. It’s normally policies are stolen from us not the other way round. Still that’s politics. If we announce the policy, people hear about it.
45.”It’s normally policies are stolen from us not the other way round. Still that’s politics. If we announce the policy, people hear about it. ”
I think you’ve stolen your pensions policy from the Campaign Group too.
30 - Just been reading about the Stronach battle - certainly seems to be there Bethnal Green and Bow. Sounds like the Conservative candidate as a right dud though so Stronach should be able to turn it around.
30/47. Does anyone have a link to last time results to see which are the marginal seats?
Also - any comments on the fact that it’s a mid-winter election (and it’s not like Canada’s the warmest place around…) - apparantly the first for 26years.
24: I don’t usually bother to respond to rants like this, but for the record: the MPs’ pension scheme used to be non-existent, to the point that the emergency aid committee on which I sit still gets requests for help from absolutely destitute ex-Cabinet Ministers and their widows (from the 50s). It was introduced after that and gradually upgraded, the main jump being the huge pay rise that MPs voted themselves in 1996 (which had a dramatic effect on the final salary pension). A few years ago the all-party Trustees recommended an improvement in accrual from 1/50ths to 1/40ths, based on comparison with management level in industry. The Treasury vetoed doing this with taxpayers’ money, so MPs voted to do it with increased personal contributions instead. There is nothing about this related to Labour or any other particular party, as the Conservative Chair of the Trustees will confirm if you ask him.
The scheme is certainly generous now, the main defence being that MPs serve on average for just 10 years, after which they have difficulty returning to their previous occupations (who wants a 10-years-out-of-date IT specialist?). The level is monitored by the Senior Salaries Review Board, which tries to ensure that MPs don’t decide arbitrarily in their own interests but are paid and pensioned at comparable levels to head teachers, judges etc. Personally I took a 40% pay cut from my previous job when I was elected, and this is quite common. That’s not to say that the pay and pension shouldn’t be lower (you can make a case for it being linked to averge national income, I think - should MPs really be paid as well as judges?), but it misunderstands the position to treat it as a Labour scheme to fleece taxpayers.
49 - I’m not sure how much it would affect one side more than the other and its something Canadians have had to learn to live with. I know Quebec has some horrific winters which was one of the reasons my aunt and uncle moved to Vancouver Island. Fortunately it’s a nicer place for relatives to visit too - especially if they don’t speak French!
51. Nick, am I right in thinking that a former MP should be 65 year old to get a pension?
’scuse my ignorance - can someone remind me who the Canadian NDP are? One of the Tory factions?
53. No. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democratic_Party
53 - They’re the most left-wing of all the major parties.
Sorry, ıf I remember rightly, there’s been a lot of splitting and remerging on the Canadian right. Is the NDP a party that’s a right wing product of all that?
And where are the Bloc Quebequois (?) in terms of right-left spectrum? I know someone will say there isn’t one, but I mean are they generally tax-and-spenders or tax cutters? Do they tend to worry about meetıng ‘needs’ or makıng sure people get what they ‘deserve’?
Re: number 50… I don’t think the Tory you referred to would appreciate being called an inanimate piece of furniture. I hate people who do a lot of important work heading up committees being described as chairs… PC gone crazy!
However, for what it’s worth, I agree with the socialist - MP’s pay and pensions are utterly derisory next to the legislative responsibility they hold. Walter Harrison, former Labour Chief Whip and MP for Wakefield lives in almost poverty!
I’m a Tory but even I am appalled by the way he has been treated
55 Max. You mean they’re Liberal Democrats !!
56 - the BQ would be regarded as centre-left/social democrat in “domestic” policy terms, I think, although there are some more economically right-wing members. The SNP is probably a reasonable analogy closer to home.
57 - The Progressive Conservatives split (IIRC) in the early 90’s. Reform (who were later re-named the Canadian Alliance) did well across Western Canada and the PC’s got back up to around 15 seats mostly in the Maritimes. They re-mereged around 2003 to form the Conservative Party of Canada. The NDP pre-date all of this.
As for winter campaigning, presumably there’ll be less doorstep campaigning overall, especially in rural areas. But presumably ıt’ll be easier to get wealthy activists out delivering in any given constituency, with their cars and all, so it would tend to favour Conservatives?
in regards the National Service point - that idea has been bounced around within certain quarters of the Conservative Party for at least 2 years now (I know someone who is a bit miffed that they put a lot of the ideas out there, and they have not been credited for it yet…)
The question is down to whether it would work or not in reality - the forces have always appeared to poo-poo it as they view it as a diversion of their resources. However, it is a potential hiring pool for them in regards both officers and ratings, as they may get people who would never have considered being career military, but are turned on to it via NS…
58/59 book value. And then you pop up Phillip !!
Lowering of voting age (proposed by Libdem’s Stephen Williams) has been rejected 136 to 128
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4482670.stm
IDS has backed Cameron, exclusively on ConservativeHome.
64 - am I missing something or did that almost pass??
“IDS has backed Cameron….”
Is that good or bad?
Funny picture to illustrate the BBC story about reducing the voting age.
“Is that good or bad?”
Well yes.
No one mentioning Charlie Kennedy allegedly breaking election laws?
Very helpful Sophia
66. Judging from the BBC article, it almost passed. I didn’t even know they would have voted it.
59. If I’ve understood well, their new leader is quite moderate, while his main opponent in the recent leadership race was more leftwing.
“No one mentioning Charlie Kennedy…..”
Don’t worry Andy, Sleaze Buster Grayling’s on the job…..
(Pass the sick bag Alice)
50-Mr Palmer
I really don’t think the plight of cabinet ministers from the 50s has much relevance on the pensions debate 50 years later.
‘The scheme is certainly generous’
You can say that again!In comparison a person in the private sector would need to accumulate a pension fund of £1.29 million to buy the same index-linked income for life that a back bench MP can acquire after less than 27 years work.
In the private sector,for an individual to match the same MP’s pension fund they would need to save more than £ 30,000 a year,or more than five times the MP’s contributions of less than £ 6,000 a year.(So much for MP’s personal contributions!)
‘The main defence being that MP’s serve on average for only 10 years’
Welcome to the real world,10 years working for the same employer in the private sector would indeed be a long time.We keep on being told that in a global economy we need to be flexible,be prepared to change jobs,train & retrain,but this is obviously not applicable to MP’s
‘Personally I took a 40% pay cut from a previous job when I was elected,and this is quite common’
Entirely a personal choice,but certainly not a justification for such a massive pension,mostly at the taxpayers expense.
I assume from your reply, that you are unable to defend the policy of your party, to create two nations in retirement,with a privileged minority of public sector employees who are supported by a majority who do not have the same benefits.
75, From my understanding, those entering the public sector in the future will get their pension at 65, and only current employees will get theirs at 60.
It’s hardly unusual to have that sort of deal in the private sector, so I don’t see why you’re complaining.
I don’t think Nick was so much defending the present pay and conditions for MPs as saying that it wasn’t actually the Labour Party who was responsible.
[24]-[50]-[74] I tend to defend Nick Palmer’s corner here, and I think john is ranting. OK so no public sector pensions are funded properly, but MPs pay and conditions were put together with the Home civil service a while ago. Yes it is obvious that public sector pensions can not be funded in the current way for much longer, but MPs could still quite legitimately be considered a special case. The days of Cincinnatus are long gone, and the necessary public service of legislators should be rewarded appropriately. It is not good to hear that former cabinet ministers are now in hardship.
“It is not good to hear that former cabinet ministers are now in hardship”
Yes it’s not very nice is it. I suppose the difference between an MP losing his job and any other worker is that most others can get into an identical job albeit for another employer without much trouble. MP’s with such poor job security should be paid more than they are. So to complain about their pension is rather churlish.
In essence I agree with James O and roger on MP pay - but just a thought… If pay should tack account of the lack of job security, does that mean that pay should be linked to the marginality of ones seat? (Clearly this is a theoretical - I’m not actually advocating it, although it might create a new voting twist…)
Probably going to far Lennon but I’d be all infavour of insising that MP’s didn’t moonlight. It’s always struck me as obscene that some MP’s have directorships outside of parliament and receive more than one salary. How can anyone effectively do more than one FULL TIME job?
78. Lennon, but then you should take in consideration the threats of deselections…….
79.” How can anyone effectively do more than one FULL TIME job?”
so would you advocate that the PM couldn’t be an MP too, because he couldn’t do full times both jobs?
You’re too clever for me Andrea
82. Roger, or maybe I’m the opposite….
You know a lot more about British politics and considering you are not British and a fair bit younger that’s good enough for me
84. Roger, I don’t know too much in the end, it’s just an illusion because I usually know some little things of little relevance, but then I ignore something big.
Btw, I’m seeing Dobson in the Commons, he looks like Santa Claus!
Not of little relevance if you’re Portillo’s wife
re 11. It’s the 54th year of one’s reign
75-’Those entering the public sector in the future will get their pension at 65,& only current employees will get theirs at 60′
So if existing terms and conditions are acceptable for public sector employees then the same logic should apply to state pensions.
‘But MP’s could quite legitamtely be considered a special case’
Why?
‘MP’s with such poor job security should be paid more than they are now’
Which other jobs have guaranteed employment terms (irrespective of performance,attendance etc) of 4 to 5 years ,with guaranteed salary levels and conditions?
87. Roger, my knoweledge of MP’s wives is not as large as you could think. I don’t know many things other than Jeremy Corbyn divorced his wife becuase she wanted to send their children to a selective school, but they still live together.
90. What’s the Italian MP’s pension and wages like Andrea?
Can’t stop. Off to an EGM.
76 James O said MPs pay and conditions were put together with the Home civil service a while ago
I am not sure that is still true as the qualification periods and payment base are the same for MPs and the Civil Service as a whole. The MP overall package has been enhanced considerably under the Labour government.
With 5 million plus civil servants on pensions then restricting current employees to the 60 retirement package will, unless there are large scale lay-offs, take a very long time to reduce the overall monthly bill let alone the accumulated liability.
As people live longer the liability could well increase in the medium term without some action such as reducing salary increases or radical reductions in numbers. Without one of these then large scale tax rises are bound to be felt by those having to make contributions to their pensions unlike MPs, civil servants or many other Crown Servants, who make no contributons.
At one time the civil service pension was seen as a compensation for lower salary levels and restricted earning opportunities, a recruitment aid. But in the last few years salary levels have increased at a rate greater than for the public sector. This is particularly true of the more senior grades. So, as with MPs, the question is not a simple one about past poverty or weak tenure (or strong in the CS) but an issue of fair reward in regard the whole package and the value for the taxpayer against the recruitment and retention and motivation of the state servants.
90. Really?? So he is as weird as he looks.
91. MPs net salary is 5.941,91 euro (4020.89 pounds, I think).
MPs pensions depend on how many years they spent in Parliament. With just one term, an MP will get 25% of his /her salary as pension. MPs with at least 7 terms will get 80% of their salaries.
I think you have put your commas in the wrong place
62: Andrea - yes, MPs normally get pensions only from 65. It’s possile to apply for a actuarially commuted one early (i.e. you get less to allow for your expected longer duration) - IIRC you need to sate definitely that you will never stand again.
Yes, mainly I was disagreeing with the attempt to portray the issue party political terms. The position of former MPs like Walter Harrison who retired before the pension scheme is in many cases very grim - I can’t give details because the people involved could be identified, but there are some shocking cases. I agree that this is not an argument for the current scheme, and I’m not sure what I think about that - as with most occupations, one can put a reasonable case, but I understand someone with a low-paid job and a rotten pension who feels angry about it.
As I said in an earlier thread about sexual affairs, I think it’s incredible that any MP has the time for serious moonlighting… it’s all I can do to find time to post here! Where’s my fat cheque, eh, Mike?
93. Roger, if Diane Abbott hadn’t been divorced, I’m almost sure she would have tried to give all fault to her husband when she sent her child to a private school (the poor boy has Jonathan Aitken as godfather).
95. yes, it should be 5,941.91. I cut and pasted from the Parliament website and we use commas when you use points and points when you use commas!
96. Thanks Nick.
Since we are all bored by the Tory leadership contest and excited at the prospect of the Canadian election, here’s http://www.electionprediction.org to amuse you all.
The problem for the CPC is that Canadians in Ontario and the Maritimes (and even Quebeckers, whenever they give thought to the Conservatives) are scared of the Alliance tendancy. They are perceived as basically being American cowboys in many eyes (god, guns and gays), and that is holding them back. Stronach crossing the floor reinforced this message.
You also forgot to mention that Stronach was the runner up to Stephen Harper for the CPC leadership.
Maybe we can expect to see DD join the Labour Party some time soon.
http://www.electionresources.org/ca/
Would be good if someone could produce a swingometer for Canadaian elections, am sure there must be one around!!
http://www.elections.ca/scripts/resval/ovr_2004.asp?prov=&lang=e
Here is the raw data, I’m sure someone has the time/inclination to process the information…
I suspect in the case of the flights there may have been a technical breach of rules. However this will hardly sink kennedy because (a) it was pre election so the spending limits weren’t in force. (b) it has been declared (c) at a very full value.
Although widely maligned on this site kennedy is probabley one of the few politicans who could, in extremis, just fess up to a mistake and sustain no long term damage
From polling (if you want a TV report on polling go to cbc.ca/national , click on ‘watch’ and go about 8 minutes in)it seems that people want Paul Martin as their PM but don’t really want Liberals. The tory leader is very unpopular. Why?
I liked the fact that the Liberals have the lead on the subject of ‘US-Canada relations’- that is, to annoy them as much as possible and oppose everything Bush says!
BTW Am I right in thinking that the Liberals are similar, or in some sort of world political group with the Lib Dems? I remember Graham Watson, head of European Liberals, wrote an email to south-west LD members praising the Liberals after a visit there.
Tim, as I mentioned above, Harper as seen as a bit of a g-g-g man in Ontario and the Maritimes.
102 - “BTW Am I right in thinking that the Liberals are similar, or in some sort of world political group with the Lib Dems?”
Yep, the Liberal International.
103 - That would be a bit of a turn off for me, even as a Tory. I’m all for preaching, but there is a proper time and place for it. Not terribly keen on gun-toters either.
Interesting just how much Davis’ price has drifted. He’s now 37-1 compared to under 20-1 only a few days ago. Nothing has changed over the last few days so I’m wondering why his price is drifting so much.
Does anyone know if ERS have already started opening and counting the ballots?
The Canadian liberals are part of liberal international unlike the australian liberals. I think the very small Australian democrats are affiliated instead.
106 - IDS endorsed Cameron today; that could have had some effect over the past few hours.
107 - Well, the Australian Liberals are not really liberals are they? They’re Tories. My eldest son lives in Sydney and is very active with them.
108 cont’d - The Australian Liberals actually belong to the International Democrat Union, which is a global club of centre-right parties. Other members include our own Conservative Party, the Conservative Party of Canada, the German CDU/CSU, New Zealand National Party and, last but not least, the US Republican Party.
109. you are quite right.
110 - Why, thank you! It’s not very often that a Lib Dem says that to me
4. Peter, and for all those interested in betting on the Canadian elections. There has been a market available on “Party to win the most seats” on Intrade.com/Tradesports.com for a couple of months now. Of course, this exchange only trades in USD so you’ll take on some currency risk too. Betfair, what’s the hold up?
AH Matlock - You said: “110 - Why, thank you! It’s not very often that a Lib Dem says that to me” - referring to being right….
LG was commenting on your posting about *facts* - with which I concur. I too think you were right…. Wait for it….
Where we differ is when you start spouting off your opinions (interpretations, if you prefer), which are usually mistaken.
Am I allowed at this stage to send you a grin (in words, of course!)?
MPs get a lot of their pay in pension contribution rather than salary.
They might take less flak, apart from the initial decision, if they divided their benefits between salary and pension contributions more in line with the rest of the employment market, and then saved hard.
On the other hand the MPs’ distribution is probably more sensible than everyone else, so perhaps everyone else should be taking salary cuts in exchange for pension contributions.
Being an MP is different because it’s an entire career rather than a job. They have excellent job security (barring snap elections), but very poor career security. However a switch into policy work, or for many, back into their previous career, is possible.
That’s not to say I think they should be paid more necessarily.
New Canadian poll with a 6% lead for the Liberals
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/10037
108 IDS endorsed Cameron today
At least remaining consistent as always jumping on a ship after it has left harbour.
Cameron has now tightened to 1.02 and Davis has lengthened to almost 40/1.
As I asked earlier, are these figures solely based on the general feeling that a Cameron win is inevitable or have there been any solid developments / polls / reports that suggest a DC landslide?
116 - Andrea anothe poll has 31% Lib, 31% Con, 18% NDP and 5% Green (who have an outside chance in one constituency). In Quebec the Bloc are on 58% and the Liberals on 24%.
106. ERS will not open and count the ballots until the morning of the 6th. Voting by close of play on Monday was 65.4%. Has settled at about 2% coming in per day… though some of us are expecting a last week rush.
Bets on total turnout? I’ll go for 80%.
119. Max, who are the potential allies of the tories if they would end up in first place but without an abolute majority?
No one really Andrea and it’s very difficult for them to get a majority since only about 2 seats in Quebec are winnable. Prior to the rise of the Bloc quite a few Quebec seats were Tory as they were seen as the most pro-separatist.
118. I think the only poll was a normal YouGov poll of all voters last week. This showed that amongst Tory voters, Cameron led Davis by 52-31.
Other than that the betting seems to be based entirely on a “feeling” that a Cameron win is inevitable.
122. Thanks Max.
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